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The discussion thread to vjtorley’s excellent post below veered off on the issue of the nature of “Truth.” The issue is: Does science say anything that is “True” with a capital “T”? That is to say, does science make absolute statements? That is an issue that deserves its own post.

To answer this question, we must answer some preliminary questions first. The most basic question is this: What does it mean for a statement to be “true”? Here Kairosfocus quotes Aristotle: “to say of what is, that it is, and of what is not, that it is not, is true.” (Metaphysics 1011b). Just so. This is the classic formulation of the “correspondence theory of truth.” True statements are those statements that correspond with the actual state of reality.

Consider Bertrand Russell’s famous cat on a mat. Russell used the statement “The cat is on the mat” to explain the issue of correspondence. That statement is true if there is a cat and if there is a mat and if the cat is related to the mat by being on it. Before going further we must first recognize that the meaning of an English sentence is based upon the conventions of English grammar and the commonly understood meanings of the words employed, which are in turn conferred by how the words are generally used in the community of speakers. As Wittgenstein said, “Meaning is usage.”

With this in mind we find that the grammar of the sentence is in a very simple subject (the cat); predicate (is on); object (the mat) format. As English speakers when we hear this sentence we naturally understand the usage of the terms used. We think of a domestic cat (Felis catus) laying on a rectangular piece of protective fabric in such a way that its body is mostly on that mat. And if we look across the room and see that our tabby Felix the Cat is stretched out on the doormat so that his body is all but covering it, we say the statement is true.

Here is the important thing to take away from this simple example. When I say “The cat is on the mat,” and Felix is in fact stretched out on the doormat at the moment I am speaking, the statement is true in an absolute sense. It is true for you; it is true for me; it is true at all times and places and under all conditions that at this time and place “The cat is on that mat.”

Now to the analysis of vjtorley’s question. He asks whether the statement “The Sun is a G2V star” is a statement that is true in an absolute sense. Let’s break it down.

Grammar: Again, the grammar is simple and unmistakable: Subject (the Sun); predicate (is); object (a G2V star).

Let’s go to the words. Allan MacNeill suggests that “The Sun” is not the English word for the star at the center of our solar system. This is not correct. When English speakers are talking about the star at the center of our solar system they almost always use the words “the Sun.” For example, the Wikki article on the Sun starts with the following sentence: “The Sun is the star at the center of the Solar System.” It is true that our sun one of many “suns” and therefore vjtorley’s language is not as precise as it could be. Nevertheless, there cannot be the slightest doubt that the phrase “The sun” in our sentence means the star at the center of our solar system.

The predicate here (“is”) means “to exist in a state of being.” In other words, the sentence means the sun exists in the state of being a G2V star.

Finally, according to Wikki, the phrase “G2V star” is a spectral class label. G2 indicates the sun’s surface temperature is approximately 5500C, and V indicates that the sun is a main sequence star and thus generates its energy by nuclear fusion of hydrogen nuclei into helium.

Let us now combine all of these factors together. We find that

(1) if there is a star at the center of our solar system named the sun; and

(2) if that star exists in a state of being a G2V star where G2V star means a main sequence star with a surface temperature of 5500C;

then the statement is true. Each of these variables (sometimes called “truth conditions”) has been investigated and we find that they all exist. Therefore, we can say that the English sentence “The Sun is a G2V star” is true in an absolute sense of the word.

Hold the presses! Isn’t it a commonplace among scientists that science does not make “absolute statements”? Indeed it is. Popper put it this way:

Science does not rest on solid bedrock. The bold structure of its theories rises, as it were, above a swamp. It is like a building erected on piles. The piles are driven down from above into the swamp, but not down to any natural or given base; and if we stop driving the piles deeper, it is not because we have reached firm ground. We simply stop when we are satisfied that the piles are firm enough to carry the structure, at least for the time being.

Karl Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, (New York, Routledge Classics, 1959, reprint of first English edition, 2002), 94.

Popper means that all scientific statements are contingent and tentative, and this is certainly true. Dr. MacNeill, if I understand him, has been making this point, and I agree with him.

So what gives? Are all scientific statements contingent and tentative or can some scientific statements be absolute? The answer is that both are true, and the confusion lies in the fact that the phrase “scientific statement” is being used in two different ways.

Instead of “scientific statement,” let us use the phrases “scientific fact” and “scientific theory.” A “scientific fact” is a statement like “The Sun is a G2V star.” As we have seen, if the truth conditions of that sentence are met, as a simple matter of English usage, the statement is true in an absolute sense.

On the other hand, consider the following sentence: “The diversity and complexity of life is the result solely of Neo-Darwinian processes.” The simplicity of this sentence disguises the fact that it is not a simple fact statement like “The Sun is a G2V star.” Instead, it is a summary of the currently dominant theory of origins. It is a synthesis of not one but literally millions of observations and inferences from those observations. Most scientists believe that the sentence is true, but few, if any would say it is true in an absolute sense. Like all scientific theories, it is contingent and tentative, subject to being displaced at any moment were a disaffirming observation to be encountered. Both sides of the ID/NDE debate should always keep in mind that no number of positive observations can “confirm” a scientific theory in the absolute sense; yet is takes only one negative observation to falsify it.

Comments
Allen MacNeill:
As I have pointed out on numerous occasions, the origin of life is not a topic addressed by evolutionary biology, which is predicated on life already existing and having an essentially universal underlying biochemical and genetic basis.
And as I have pointed out on numerous occasions the two are directly connected- and if living organsims were designed then it is a safe bet they were also designed to evolve, meaning teleology is a big part of evolution. Allen macNeill:
P.S. The fact that we don’t currently know how many or what kind of genetic and developmental changes have produced the patterns of phenotypic change we observe in the fossil record doesn’t mean that such changes haven’t happened, much less that they can’t have happened.
You don't know if the changes could have happened, meaning there may be something else to explain the fossil record. That's the whole point- all of the alleged changes happened in the distant and unrepeatable past- great fro a history classrooom but it makes for poor science.Joseph
November 8, 2010
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Mr. MacNeill, The math you teach you students is worthless as far as providing proof of evolution. Much less do the equations you cited, as to teaching, provide proper guidance to students for evaluating evolution save for perhaps a few 'hypothetical' cases that you have cherry picked: These following videos are very good, for they use the mathematical equations used by leading evolutionists themselves, for population genetics, to show that the evolution of whales, and even of humans, is impossible even by using their own mathematical methods of predicting change: Whale Evolution Vs. Population Genetics - Richard Sternberg PhD. in Evolutionary Biology - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/4165203 Darwinism Vs. Whale Evolution - Part 1 - Richard Sternberg PhD. - SMU talk - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/5263733 Darwinism Vs. Whale Evolution - Part - Richard Sternberg PhD. - SMU talk - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/5263746 For prime example of just how useless your equations are Dr. MacNeill, please explain the following result using your equations: Experimental Evolution in Fruit Flies (35 years of trying to force fruit flies to evolve in the laboratory fails, spectacularly) - October 2010 Excerpt: "Despite decades of sustained selection in relatively small, sexually reproducing laboratory populations, selection did not lead to the fixation of newly arising unconditionally advantageous alleles.,,, "This research really upends the dominant paradigm about how species evolve," said ecology and evolutionary biology professor Anthony Long, the primary investigator. http://www.arn.org/blogs/index.php/literature/2010/10/07/experimental_evolution_in_fruit_flies ,,, i.e. since your equations are false so as to predict fixation of a even a single beneficial mutation Mr. MacNeill, please justify why you still teach them to your students. further notes: Mathematicians Offer Elegant Solution to Evolutionary Conundrum Excerpt: UBC researchers have proffered a new mathematical model that seeks to unravel a key evolutionary riddle–namely what factors underlie the generation of biological diversity both within and between species.,,, existing mathematical models that incorporate these ‘rare type’ advantages tend to have some serious shortcomings,”,,, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100422153931.htm translation Mr. MacNeill,,, all the calculus level math, that you teach to intimidated freshman biology students for decades, is, in fact, known to be wrong and, worse yet, has been known to be wrong for a long time. Moreover massive bandages have been applied to the existing evolutionary equations. Existing equations that you admittedly are still using to teach your students 'evolution'. Worse still, this 'new' mathematical model, that you admitted you are not using has not even been rigorously tested in the real world though it is offered as a 'elegant solution' to the fact that the existing equations cannot explain generation of novelty/information. Waiting Longer for Two Mutations - Michael J. Behe Excerpt: Citing malaria literature sources (White 2004) I had noted that the de novo appearance of chloroquine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum was an event of probability of 1 in 10^20. I then wrote that ‘‘for humans to achieve a mutation like this by chance, we would have to wait 100 million times 10 million years’’ (Behe 2007) (because that is the extrapolated time that it would take to produce 10^20 humans). Durrett and Schmidt (2008, p. 1507) retort that my number ‘‘is 5 million times larger than the calculation we have just given’’ using their model (which nonetheless "using their model" gives a prohibitively long waiting time of 216 million years). Their criticism compares apples to oranges. My figure of 10^20 is an empirical statistic from the literature; it is not, as their calculation is, a theoretical estimate from a population genetics model. http://www.discovery.org/a/9461 This following calculation by geneticist John Sanford for 'fixing' a beneficial mutation, or for creating a new gene, in humans, gives equally absurd numbers that once again render the Darwinian scenario of humans evolving from apes completely false: Dr. Sanford calculates it would take 12 million years to “fix” a single base pair mutation into a population. He further calculates that to create a gene with 1000 base pairs, it would take 12 million x 1000 or 12 billion years. This is obviously too slow to support the creation of the human genome containing 3 billion base pairs. http://www.detectingtruth.com/?p=66 Indeed, math is not kind to Darwinism in the least when considering the probability of humans 'randomly' evolving: In Barrow and Tippler's book The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, they list ten steps necessary in the course of human evolution, each of which, is so improbable that if left to happen by chance alone, the sun would have ceased to be a main sequence star and would have incinerated the earth. They estimate that the odds of the evolution (by chance) of the human genome is somewhere between 4 to the negative 180th power, to the 110,000th power, and 4 to the negative 360th power, to the 110,000th power. Therefore, if evolution did occur, it literally would have been a miracle and evidence for the existence of God. William Lane Craig William Lane Craig - If Human Evolution Did Occur It Was A Miracle - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUxm8dXLRpA Along that same line: Darwin and the Mathematicians - David Berlinski “The formation within geological time of a human body by the laws of physics (or any other laws of similar nature), starting from a random distribution of elementary particles and the field, is as unlikely as the separation by chance of the atmosphere into its components.” Kurt Gödel, was a preeminent mathematician who is considered one of the greatest to have ever lived. Of Note: Godel was a Theist! http://www.evolutionnews.org/2009/11/darwin_and_the_mathematicians.html “Darwin’s theory is easily the dumbest idea ever taken seriously by science." Granville Sewell - Professor Of Mathematics - University Of Texas - El Paso God by the Numbers - Charles Edward White Excerpt: "Even if we limit the number of necessary mutations to 1,000 and argue that half of these mutations are beneficial, the odds against getting 1,000 beneficial mutations in the proper order is 2^1000. Expressed in decimal form, this number is about 10^301. 10^301 mutations is a number far beyond the capacity of the universe to generate. Even if every particle in the universe mutated at the fastest possible rate and had done so since the Big Bang, there still would not be enough mutations." “The central question of the Chicago conference was whether the mechanisms underlying microevolution can be extrapolated to explain the phenomena of macroevolution. At the risk of doing violence to the position of some people at the meeting, the answer can be given as a clear, No.” Roger Lewin - Historic Chicago 'Macroevolution' conference of 1980 Accidental origins: Where species come from - March 2010 Excerpt: If speciation results from natural selection via many small changes, you would expect the branch lengths to fit a bell-shaped curve.,,, Instead, Pagel's team found that in 78 per cent of the trees, the best fit for the branch length distribution was another familiar curve, known as the exponential distribution. Like the bell curve, the exponential has a straightforward explanation - but it is a disquieting one for evolutionary biologists. The exponential is the pattern you get when you are waiting for some single, infrequent event to happen.,,,To Pagel, the implications for speciation are clear: "It isn't the accumulation of events that causes a speciation, it's single, rare events falling out of the sky, so to speak."bornagain77
November 8, 2010
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Mr. MacNeill, The math you teach you students is worthless as far as providing proof of evolution. Much less do the equations you cited, as to teaching, provide proper guidance to students for evaluating evolution save for perhaps a few 'hypothetical' cases that you have cherry picked: These following videos are very good, for they use the mathematical equations used by leading evolutionists themselves, for population genetics, to show that the evolution of whales, and even of humans, is impossible even by using their own mathematical methods of predicting change: Whale Evolution Vs. Population Genetics - Richard Sternberg PhD. in Evolutionary Biology - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/4165203 Darwinism Vs. Whale Evolution - Part 1 - Richard Sternberg PhD. - SMU talk - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/5263733 Darwinism Vs. Whale Evolution - Part - Richard Sternberg PhD. - SMU talk - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/5263746 For prime example of just how useless your equations are Dr. MacNeill, please explain the following result using your equations: Experimental Evolution in Fruit Flies (35 years of trying to force fruit flies to evolve in the laboratory fails, spectacularly) - October 2010 Excerpt: "Despite decades of sustained selection in relatively small, sexually reproducing laboratory populations, selection did not lead to the fixation of newly arising unconditionally advantageous alleles.,,, "This research really upends the dominant paradigm about how species evolve," said ecology and evolutionary biology professor Anthony Long, the primary investigator. http://www.arn.org/blogs/index.php/literature/2010/10/07/experimental_evolution_in_fruit_flies ,,, i.e. since your equations are false so as to predict fixation of a even a single beneficial mutation Mr. MacNeill, please justify why you still teach them to your students. further notes: Mathematicians Offer Elegant Solution to Evolutionary Conundrum Excerpt: UBC researchers have proffered a new mathematical model that seeks to unravel a key evolutionary riddle–namely what factors underlie the generation of biological diversity both within and between species.,,, existing mathematical models that incorporate these ‘rare type’ advantages tend to have some serious shortcomings,”,,, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100422153931.htm translation Mr. MacNeill,,, all the calculus level math, that you teach to intimidated freshman biology students for decades, is, in fact, known to be wrong and, worse yet, has been known to be wrong for a long time. Moreover massive bandages have been applied to the existing evolutionary equations. Existing equations that you admittedly are still using to teach your students 'evolution'. Worse still, this 'new' mathematical model, that you admitted you are not using has not even been rigorously tested in the real world though it is offered as a 'elegant solution' to the fact that the existing equations cannot explain generation of novelty/information. Waiting Longer for Two Mutations - Michael J. Behe Excerpt: Citing malaria literature sources (White 2004) I had noted that the de novo appearance of chloroquine resistance in Plasmodium falciparum was an event of probability of 1 in 10^20. I then wrote that ‘‘for humans to achieve a mutation like this by chance, we would have to wait 100 million times 10 million years’’ (Behe 2007) (because that is the extrapolated time that it would take to produce 10^20 humans). Durrett and Schmidt (2008, p. 1507) retort that my number ‘‘is 5 million times larger than the calculation we have just given’’ using their model (which nonetheless "using their model" gives a prohibitively long waiting time of 216 million years). Their criticism compares apples to oranges. My figure of 10^20 is an empirical statistic from the literature; it is not, as their calculation is, a theoretical estimate from a population genetics model. http://www.discovery.org/a/9461 This following calculation by geneticist John Sanford for 'fixing' a beneficial mutation, or for creating a new gene, in humans, gives equally absurd numbers that once again render the Darwinian scenario of humans evolving from apes completely false: Dr. Sanford calculates it would take 12 million years to “fix” a single base pair mutation into a population. He further calculates that to create a gene with 1000 base pairs, it would take 12 million x 1000 or 12 billion years. This is obviously too slow to support the creation of the human genome containing 3 billion base pairs. http://www.detectingtruth.com/?p=66 Indeed, math is not kind to Darwinism in the least when considering the probability of humans 'randomly' evolving: In Barrow and Tippler's book The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, they list ten steps necessary in the course of human evolution, each of which, is so improbable that if left to happen by chance alone, the sun would have ceased to be a main sequence star and would have incinerated the earth. They estimate that the odds of the evolution (by chance) of the human genome is somewhere between 4 to the negative 180th power, to the 110,000th power, and 4 to the negative 360th power, to the 110,000th power. Therefore, if evolution did occur, it literally would have been a miracle and evidence for the existence of God. William Lane Craig William Lane Craig - If Human Evolution Did Occur It Was A Miracle - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUxm8dXLRpA Along that same line: Darwin and the Mathematicians - David Berlinski “The formation within geological time of a human body by the laws of physics (or any other laws of similar nature), starting from a random distribution of elementary particles and the field, is as unlikely as the separation by chance of the atmosphere into its components.” Kurt Gödel, was a preeminent mathematician who is considered one of the greatest to have ever lived. Of Note: Godel was a Theist! http://www.evolutionnews.org/2009/11/darwin_and_the_mathematicians.html “Darwin’s theory is easily the dumbest idea ever taken seriously by science." Granville Sewell - Professor Of Mathematics - University Of Texas - El Paso God by the Numbers - Charles Edward White Excerpt: "Even if we limit the number of necessary mutations to 1,000 and argue that half of these mutations are beneficial, the odds against getting 1,000 beneficial mutations in the proper order is 2^1000. Expressed in decimal form, this number is about 10^301. 10^301 mutations is a number far beyond the capacity of the universe to generate. Even if every particle in the universe mutated at the fastest possible rate and had done so since the Big Bang, there still would not be enough mutations." “The central question of the Chicago conference was whether the mechanisms underlying microevolution can be extrapolated to explain the phenomena of macroevolution. At the risk of doing violence to the position of some people at the meeting, the answer can be given as a clear, No.” Roger Lewin - Historic Chicago 'Macroevolution' conference of 1980 Accidental origins: Where species come from - March 2010 Excerpt: If speciation results from natural selection via many small changes, you would expect the branch lengths to fit a bell-shaped curve.,,, Instead, Pagel's team found that in 78 per cent of the trees, the best fit for the branch length distribution was another familiar curve, known as the exponential distribution. Like the bell curve, the exponential has a straightforward explanation - but it is a disquieting one for evolutionary biologists. The exponential is the pattern you get when you are waiting for some single, infrequent event to happen.,,,To Pagel, the implications for speciation are clear: "It isn't the accumulation of events that causes a speciation, it's single, rare events falling out of the sky, so to speak." http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20527511.400-accidental-origins-where-species-come-from.html?page=2bornagain77
November 8, 2010
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P.S. The fact that we don't currently know how many or what kind of genetic and developmental changes have produced the patterns of phenotypic change we observe in the fossil record doesn't mean that such changes haven't happened, much less that they can't have happened. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.Allen_MacNeill
November 8, 2010
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Re comment #16:
"Life began as a purposeless random event in chemical history"
As I have pointed out on numerous occasions, the origin of life is not a topic addressed by evolutionary biology, which is predicated on life already existing and having an essentially universal underlying biochemical and genetic basis. Questions about the origin of life and the genetic code, while fascinating, have nothing whatsoever to do with evolutionary biology. As such, they are a problem for physicists, chemists (and perhaps astrophysicists and planetary astronomers), but not for evolutionary biology. Personally, I think that the question of the origin of life and the genetic code will always be outside the domain of the empirical sciences. Molecules don't fossilize and neither do cells (at least those lacking hard parts), and so any speculation about the origin of life must necessarily be based on hypothetical models that cannot be directly tested. The same, however, is not the case for biological evolution. As just one example, it is now possible to show exactly what genetic mutations have resulted in the diversification of the jaws of the cichlid fish in African rift lakes (i.e. very specific mutations in the hox gene BMP4). As more of the genetics underlying the development and modification of phenotypic changes are elucidated, we will be able to say with reasonable confidence how such changes happen and what the relevant mechanisms are. At that point, it should be clear to partisans on both sides of this issue what mechanisms are responsible for such changes. In other words, we are not arguing about whether evolution has occurred or whether it has caused the complexity and diversity we observe in the biosphere. We are arguing about mechanisms, sbout how evolution has happened. And science is all about "how", and leaves arguments about "why" to philosophers and theologians.Allen_MacNeill
November 8, 2010
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Pardon on the title, I just saw.kairosfocus
November 8, 2010
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PPS: An update to the monkeys and typewriters exercise, using Zener noise sources.kairosfocus
November 8, 2010
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PS: I have even proposed a [thought] experimental set-up, here. A similar one would be to set up a million PCs with Zener noise sources driving hard drives and to check each for a suitable message every 30 s for say 10 years, and see the longest recognisably functional string that results, or one could do a similar exercise to the SETI program, with spare PC time and sky noise. Evo Informatics' honest [non-front-loaded] versions of Weasel are a toy case that while not as rigorous, show the basic problem dramatically. Remember, until you have the von neunamm replicator fascility integrated with a metabolising entitty, you do not have a self-replicating basis for any Darwinian sytle evolution. That obtains for first life, and for the origin of embryologically feasible novel body plans, the embryological feasibility has a similar effect. Until you are on the shore of having a functional body plan, evolution to improve it is not on the cards. Including for the first one.kairosfocus
November 8, 2010
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Dr McNeill: Provide a case where specifically functional [linguistic or algorithmic] digital code in excess of 1,000 bits storage capacity [125 bytes] is demonstrably and reproducibly produced by blind forces of chance and mechanical necessity without intelligent intervention, and the design theory case will collapse. On billions of test cases [including posts in this thread in excess of about 150 characters], such dFSCI is routinely produced by intelligent agents, and it is an empirically credible signature of such action. That is why DNA is credibly designed, and the consequences follow from that. This has been pointed out over and over, including to you, sir. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
November 8, 2010
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Allen mcNeill:
Modern evolutionary theory is almost entirely mathematical.
And yet you can't even tell us how many mutations it would take to evolve a mammmalian middle ear from a reptilian ear and jaw. Can't say how many mutations it would take/ took to go from hairy knuckle-walkers to follically impaired upright bipeds. Can't sa how many mutations it would take/ tok to go from a hoove land mammal to fully aquatic whale. But thre is some math that demonstrates the probability, or lack thereof, of getting two specific mutations.Joseph
November 8, 2010
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"And, as I have pointed out here repeatedly, until IDers have devised empirical investigations that can be statistically verified/falsified, ID will not achieve the status of a natural science."
Allan, you speak from a position that repeatedly popularizes the idea within the public sphere that science has shown that Life began as a purposeless random event in chemical history. By your own standards above, that position is a entirely unsupported. It is a claim which never corrected in the broad public forum where it is placed, never subjected to peer control within the scientific community (in fact the opposite is true), and never approached with the absolute candor and huminity in which the counter-evidence demands.Upright BiPed
November 8, 2010
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Modern evolutionary theory is almost entirely mathematical. Indeed, that is what I have spent the last three days doing, grading two pages of mathematical problems that appeared on prelim #2 in our evolutionary biology course here at Cornell. The students were provided with a full page of equations that they could use to work out the problems, which they had already had an opportunity to do on their own (we assign problem sets regularly throughout the semester). So it is simply not the case that evolutionary theory has no mathematical underlying basis. I recommend that anyone interested in the mathematics of evolutionary theory begin with R. A. Fisher's classic The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, first published in 1930. A flavor of the mathematics in his book can be tasted here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_equation This link includes George R. Price's reformulation of Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection in terms of covariance. Microevolutionary theory is almost entirely mathematical, hence J. B. S. Haldane's characterization of it as a "branch of applied mathematics". Macroevolutionary theory, being quite a bit newer, is only in the beginning stages of this kind of mathematical modeling. Personally, I think that perhaps too much weight is given to mathematical models in modern evolutionary theory, and not enough to field and laboratory studies. It is gratifying to me that this situation is gradually changing, as evolutionary biologists give more weight to empirical data and less to ideal mathematical models. As for my not having a PhD, I have posted about this repeatedly, both here and elsewhere. What difference does this make to the quality of one's arguments? Or is the implication that "arguments from authority" trump arguments from logic and evidence? And thank you, Barry, for your comments as well. It is always gratifying to me to find areas of agreement with people with whom I disagree. Also, as a classical fencer, I appreciate a "fair and courteous exchange" in the spirit of the sword:
"Gracious and dignified in defeat; humble and gentle in victory" In ferro, veritas [ http://www.classicalfencing.com/ ]
Allen_MacNeill
November 8, 2010
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Allan, What is the mathematical model of regularities that leads to the existence of a red plastic ball?Upright BiPed
November 8, 2010
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Allan has errer. Again. Or, was he being disingenuous? Does Allan not know that there is no test of (and therefore no scientific verification of) the underlying claim that life is the result of "regularities that can be modeled mathematically" - or - the more publically oriented wording that "Life is the result of a purposeless chance event" And if Allan is in aggreement that no such test exists, then what does he suggest to the scientific institutions, media, and pressers who constantly repeat the claim?Upright BiPed
November 8, 2010
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Sorry Mr. Arrington and Mr. MacNeill, I did not mean to offend, and indeed meant 'throughly 'wrong''. as in thoroughly 'wrong' as to the actual state of evidence. Mr. MacNeill I am fairly confident that you 'genuinely', but falsely, believe that you have some sort of confirmational evidence somewhere.bornagain77
November 8, 2010
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Thank you Allan. Let me also say that I am grateful for your contributions here. You obviously invest significant thought and effort in your comments, which, even when we disagree, force us to think and respond. This blog would be ever so boring if it were only an echo chamber of like minded self-satisfied commenters. And it would be dreary and nasty if the commenters did not feel restrained by the bounds of polite discussion. As a capable, polite and soft spoken foil, you make this a better place, and I might add that is true even when you are driving me nuts. “As iron sharpens iron, so one person sharpens another.” And, I might add, sparks sometimes fly, which is all to the good. But let me caution both sides that we should not let our frustration with the other side lead to intemperate comments. For example, in frustration one commenter above accused Allan of being “disingenuous.” That word means “lacking in frankness, candor, or sincerity.” In other words a statement is disingenuous when the speaker does not actually believe what he is saying, and the charge implies that the speaker is morally culpable and not merely mistaken.. I am persuaded that Allan believes everything he writes, so the charge is unfair. I also disagree with what Allan wrote. But I think it would have been more proper for the commenter to say Allan has erred.Barry Arrington
November 8, 2010
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Alan Off topic - but a bug bear of mine. It is not true that: for something to be considered “statistically significant”, it must happen in a similar way at least 95% of the time I am sure you know that statistical significance is a controversial concept - part of statistical hypothesis testing - a method which is fraught with problems. See, for example, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcs.72/abstractmarkf
November 8, 2010
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Lastly Dr./Mr. MacNeill, Since evolution has not 'devised empirical investigations that can be statistically verified/falsified,' , and is in fact notorious for its stunning lack of any falsifiable criteria, does that now mean that evolution does 'not achieve the status of a natural science.’ according to the standards that you yourself have laid out?bornagain77
November 8, 2010
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I would like to propose that we at UD award Mr. MacNeill an honourary doctorate, since, as he has pointed out several times in the past, he does not currently have a Ph.D., yet many of us continue to honour him with that title. I hope he will not take offense at me pointing this out on his behalf (because I know its not really my business), but he must be tired of doing so on his own, and I would be the last to suggest that it makes the tiniest bit of practical difference in the expertise he brings to the discussions here. Lastly, I would like to thank him for continuing to participate in such a civil manner. A short bio: http://lsc.sas.cornell.edu/lscstaff.htmlSCheesman
November 8, 2010
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Note that this is opinion. As the name of my blog suggests, I'm a bit of a heretic on questions such as this. Yes, science does make True statements. It makes many True statements. However, scientific theories and scientific laws are not among them. That is, a scientific theory is neither true nor false. The question of "absolute truth" is a tricky one, because people disagree on what that means. The truth of all ordinary statements is relative to the meanings of the terms used, but most people would not take that as denying the possibility of absolute truth.Neil Rickert
November 8, 2010
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Dr. MacNeill you also stated: 'And, as I have pointed out here repeatedly, until IDers have devised empirical investigations that can be statistically verified/falsified, ID will not achieve the status of a natural science.' Here are some tests that would falsify ID: Michael Behe on Falsifying Intelligent Design - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8jXXJN4o_A Is Antibiotic Resistance evidence for evolution? - 'The Fitness Test' - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/3995248 The Capabilities of Chaos and Complexity: David L. Abel - Null Hypothesis For Information Generation - 2009 To focus the scientific community’s attention on its own tendencies toward overzealous metaphysical imagination bordering on “wish-fulfillment,” we propose the following readily falsifiable null hypothesis, and invite rigorous experimental attempts to falsify it: "Physicodynamics cannot spontaneously traverse The Cybernetic Cut: physicodynamics alone cannot organize itself into formally functional systems requiring algorithmic optimization, computational halting, and circuit integration." A single exception of non trivial, unaided spontaneous optimization of formal function by truly natural process would falsify this null hypothesis. http://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/10/1/247/pdf Can We Falsify Any Of The Following Null Hypothesis (For Information Generation) 1) Mathematical Logic 2) Algorithmic Optimization 3) Cybernetic Programming 4) Computational Halting 5) Integrated Circuits 6) Organization (e.g. homeostatic optimization far from equilibrium) 7) Material Symbol Systems (e.g. genetics) 8) Any Goal Oriented bona fide system 9) Language 10) Formal function of any kind 11) Utilitarian work http://mdpi.com/1422-0067/10/1/247/ag Reductive Evolution Can Prevent Populations from Taking Simple Adaptive Paths to High Fitness - Ann K. Gauger, Stephanie Ebnet, Pamela F. Fahey, and Ralph Seelke – 2010 Excerpt: In experimental evolution, the best way to permit various evolutionary alternatives, and assess their relative likelihood, is to avoid conditions that rule them out. Our experiments, like others (e.g. [40]), used populations of cells growing slowly under limiting nutrient conditions, thereby allowing a number of paths to be taken to higher fitness. We engineered the cells to have a two-step adaptive path to high fitness, but they were not limited to that option. Cells could reduce expression of the non-functional trpAE49V,D60N allele in a variety of ways, or they could acquire a weakly functional tryptophan synthase subunit by a single site reversion to trpAD60N, bringing them within one step of full reversion (Figure 6). When all of these possibilities are left open by the experimental design, the populations consistently take paths that reduce expression of trpAE49V,D60N, making the path to new (restored) function virtually inaccessible. This demonstrates that the cost of expressing genes that provide weak new functions is a significant constraint on the emergence of new functions. In particular, populations with multiple adaptive paths open to them may be much less likely to take an adaptive path to high fitness if that path requires over-expression. http://bio-complexity.org/ojs/index.php/main/article/view/BIO-C.2010.2/BIO-C.2010.2 Dr. MacNeill, here is the correct model: Using Computer Simulation to Understand Mutation Accumulation Dynamics and Genetic Load: Excerpt: We apply a biologically realistic forward-time population genetics program to study human mutation accumulation under a wide-range of circumstances. Using realistic estimates for the relevant biological parameters, we investigate the rate of mutation accumulation, the distribution of the fitness effects of the accumulating mutations, and the overall effect on mean genotypic fitness. Our numerical simulations consistently show that deleterious mutations accumulate linearly across a large portion of the relevant parameter space. http://bioinformatics.cau.edu.cn/lecture/chinaproof.pdf MENDEL’S ACCOUNTANT: J. SANFORD†, J. BAUMGARDNER‡, W. BREWER§, P. GIBSON¶, AND W. REMINE http://www.scpe.org/vols/vol08/no2/SCPE_8_2_02.pdf "No human investigation can be called true science without passing through mathematical tests." Leonardo Da Vinci This is another ID standard that can be verified or falsified Dr. MacNeill: Stephen Meyer - Functional Proteins And Information For Body Plans - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/4050681/ etc.. etc..bornagain77
November 8, 2010
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Dr. MacNeill you also stated: 'And, as I have pointed out here repeatedly, until IDers have devised empirical investigations that can be statistically verified/falsified, ID will not achieve the status of a natural science.' Here are some tests that would falsify ID: Michael Behe on Falsifying Intelligent Design - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8jXXJN4o_A Is Antibiotic Resistance evidence for evolution? - 'The Fitness Test' - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/3995248 The Capabilities of Chaos and Complexity: David L. Abel - Null Hypothesis For Information Generation - 2009 To focus the scientific community’s attention on its own tendencies toward overzealous metaphysical imagination bordering on “wish-fulfillment,” we propose the following readily falsifiable null hypothesis, and invite rigorous experimental attempts to falsify it: "Physicodynamics cannot spontaneously traverse The Cybernetic Cut: physicodynamics alone cannot organize itself into formally functional systems requiring algorithmic optimization, computational halting, and circuit integration." A single exception of non trivial, unaided spontaneous optimization of formal function by truly natural process would falsify this null hypothesis. http://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/10/1/247/pdf Can We Falsify Any Of The Following Null Hypothesis (For Information Generation) 1) Mathematical Logic 2) Algorithmic Optimization 3) Cybernetic Programming 4) Computational Halting 5) Integrated Circuits 6) Organization (e.g. homeostatic optimization far from equilibrium) 7) Material Symbol Systems (e.g. genetics) 8) Any Goal Oriented bona fide system 9) Language 10) Formal function of any kind 11) Utilitarian work http://mdpi.com/1422-0067/10/1/247/ag Reductive Evolution Can Prevent Populations from Taking Simple Adaptive Paths to High Fitness - Ann K. Gauger, Stephanie Ebnet, Pamela F. Fahey, and Ralph Seelke – 2010 Excerpt: In experimental evolution, the best way to permit various evolutionary alternatives, and assess their relative likelihood, is to avoid conditions that rule them out. Our experiments, like others (e.g. [40]), used populations of cells growing slowly under limiting nutrient conditions, thereby allowing a number of paths to be taken to higher fitness. We engineered the cells to have a two-step adaptive path to high fitness, but they were not limited to that option. Cells could reduce expression of the non-functional trpAE49V,D60N allele in a variety of ways, or they could acquire a weakly functional tryptophan synthase subunit by a single site reversion to trpAD60N, bringing them within one step of full reversion (Figure 6). When all of these possibilities are left open by the experimental design, the populations consistently take paths that reduce expression of trpAE49V,D60N, making the path to new (restored) function virtually inaccessible. This demonstrates that the cost of expressing genes that provide weak new functions is a significant constraint on the emergence of new functions. In particular, populations with multiple adaptive paths open to them may be much less likely to take an adaptive path to high fitness if that path requires over-expression. http://bio-complexity.org/ojs/index.php/main/article/view/BIO-C.2010.2/BIO-C.2010.2 Dr. MacNeill, here is the correct model: Using Computer Simulation to Understand Mutation Accumulation Dynamics and Genetic Load: Excerpt: We apply a biologically realistic forward-time population genetics program to study human mutation accumulation under a wide-range of circumstances. Using realistic estimates for the relevant biological parameters, we investigate the rate of mutation accumulation, the distribution of the fitness effects of the accumulating mutations, and the overall effect on mean genotypic fitness. Our numerical simulations consistently show that deleterious mutations accumulate linearly across a large portion of the relevant parameter space. http://bioinformatics.cau.edu.cn/lecture/chinaproof.pdf MENDEL’S ACCOUNTANT: J. SANFORD†, J. BAUMGARDNER‡, W. BREWER§, P. GIBSON¶, AND W. REMINE http://mendelsaccount.sourceforge.net http://www.scpe.org/vols/vol08/no2/SCPE_8_2_02.pdf "No human investigation can be called true science without passing through mathematical tests." Leonardo Da Vinci This is another ID standard that can be verified or falsified: Stephen Meyer - Functional Proteins And Information For Body Plans - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/4050681 Stephen Meyer - Functional Proteins And Information For Body Plans - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/4050681 etc.. etc..bornagain77
November 8, 2010
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Allen MacNeill:
And, as I have pointed out here repeatedly, until IDers have devised empirical investigations that can be statistically verified/falsified, ID will not achieve the status of a natural science.
We have done just that. Ya see Allen the EF requires/ mandates that other possibilities be given first shot at accounting for what we are investigating. IOW parsimony if how one reutes any given design inference- ie just demonstrate that blind, undirected processes can account for it and we don't even get to the design inference node. As for EBers requiring empirical verification- please- there isn't any empirical verification for your grand claims as everything happened in the untestable and unrepeatable past. As for ID, yes we can empirically verify IC exists.Joseph
November 8, 2010
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Dr. MacNeill, Evolution has no mathematical model nor does it have one shred of empirical 'confirmational' evidence, Whereas ID/Genetic Entropy does have a mathematical model as laid out by John Sanford, as well as empirical 'confirmational' evidence in that Intelligence is the only known presently acting cause sufficient to generate the type of prescriptive functional information we find in life. Dr. MacNeill you last two statements are thoroughly disingenuous!bornagain77
November 8, 2010
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As for the difference between scientific statements and simple declarative English sentences, I hope by now that it is clear that there is indeed a world of difference between them, a difference in underlying metaphysical assumptions. The former are necessarily tentative and open to revision, whereas the latter can (and often) are "absolute". To confuse the two is usually to do great injury to both scientific and non-scientific discourse, and may also be the root of much of the disagreement between EBers and IDers.Allen_MacNeill
November 8, 2010
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Barry: An excellent post, and one with which I can find very little to quibble. In particular, I would like to reinforce Karl Popper's assertion that scientific statements are necessarily tentative. This is an inescapable consequence of the reliance by scientists on inductive reasoning. As Popper repeatedly pointed out, induction cannot result in absolute statements of anything. Rather, induction produces statements of "confidence", which have become codified in science as the result of the application of statistical analysis. In biology (and many other sciences, but not physics or most of chemistry), the agreed-upon confidence level is 95% (physics and chemistry have much higher "confidence levels"). That is, for something to be considered "statistically significant", it must happen in a similar way at least 95% of the time. The application of statistical reasoning to the biological sciences was pioneered by the English population geneticist (and founder of the "modern evolutionary synthesis"), Ronald Aylmer Fisher. Along with J. B. S. Haldane, Sewall Wright, and Theodosius Dobzhansky, Fisher used mathematical models and statistical reasoning to formulate the theoretical foundation of the modern theory of evolution, which Haldane called "a branch of applied mathematics". In the intervening century evolutionary biology has moved beyond the early mathematical models of Fisher, Haldane, and Wright, relying increasingly on field and laboratory studies, which have been used to test (and often extend, and sometimes supersede) the underlying mathematical models. In this sense, the "modern evolutionary synthesis" of the 1930s is now "dead" – or rather, it has been modified and extended to the point that only its underlying metaphysical assumptions remain. It is these underlying assumptions that it seems to me are the major point of disagreement between evolutionary biologists ("EBers") and ID supporters ("IDers"). Virtually all EBers and most IDers (including Michael Behe, William Dembski, and most of the commentators here) accept that descent with modification (i.e. evolution) has occurred and that it has produced both the complexity and diversity of life on Earth. Where they disagree is on the mechanism(s) by which this has happened. EBers remain committed to the basic metaphysical principles that underlie the other so-called "natural" sciences, such as physics, chemistry, astronomy, geology, etc. As laid out by Cornell philosopher and historian of science, Edwin Arthur Burtt (a dear friend of mine, now deceased), these metaphysical assumptions are: • that nature exhibits regularities that can be modeled mathematically; • that these regularities are the result of natural laws operating universally in both space and time; and • that it is unnecessary to explain such natural laws as being the result of intention or purpose. Both EBers and IDers agree on the first of these metaphysical assumptions. They disagree on the other two. IDers (and especially Michael Behe and William Dembski) believe that natural laws alone are insufficient to explain the complexity of living systems, and that some direct (and therefore essentially supernatural) intervention outside of such laws must be invoked to do so. They also assert that such intervention requires intentionality. That is, when biological systems evolve, at least some of that evolution happens "on purpose". As I see it, these latter two assumptions should still be amenable to Fisher's method of statistical analysis and empirical verification (and Popper's method of "falsification"). To do so, however, requires extensive empirical testing, a process that has been going on in the EB side of this disagreement for over a century. It is precisely because of this process of empirical testing and validation/falsification that the "modern synthesis" (sometimes called neo-Darwinism) has been largely superseded over the past 80 years. And, as I have pointed out here repeatedly, until IDers have devised empirical investigations that can be statistically verified/falsified, ID will not achieve the status of a natural science. If ID does eventually achieve this, it will indeed have a lasting effect on the underlying metaphysics of the natural sciences. If such empirical research and statistical analysis holds up, it will have overthrown one of E. A. Burtt's metaphysical foundations of the natural sciences: that of non-teleology. Depending on how this is done, it may also supersede the principle of non-intervention in natural processes. This would, in turn, indicate that biology is not one of the "natural" sciences (that is, it is not like physics, chemistry, astronomy, etc., which conform to Burtt's three metaphysical principles). And so, it seems to me that the underlying dispute between EBers and IDers hinges on three points: • that the difference between EB and ID is essential a difference in mechanism, not outcome; • that EBers (like all other natural scientists) require empirical verification in addition to mathematical models for acceptance or rejection of a proposed hypothesis for the mechanism(s) that drive descent with modification; and • that ID has not yet come anywhere near satisfying the basic methodological requirements for acceptance as a natural science.Allen_MacNeill
November 8, 2010
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