What is going on? I don’t understand the hysteria that is going on. What am I missing?
Let’s get some numbers out there. According to the CDC, from September of last year until the end of February this year, 180 days, 18,000 Americans died of the seasonal flu. Starting with March, we have been on high alert, we have been exercising greater hygiene, and, for the last week, we have been quarantining ourselves and spacing ourselves out (a new meaning to the words “being spaced out”). Yet, the CDC just released new numbers, and, over the last roughly 20 days, 4,000 Americans died of the seasonal flu, while only 140 Americans died of the corona virus. That’s a 30 to 1 ratio, roughly. Now, if “spacing out” helps, then why did the average death rate from the seasonal flu rise from 100/day to 200/day? Anyone have an answer?
Also, if the corona virus is so virulent and contagious, then why were there only 6,300 new cases of corona virus, while, using the yardstick of 0.1% mortality rate, 4 million new cases of the seasonal flu developed?
How about some more numbers?
The P&I (pneumonia and influenza-like-illness) mortality of the average flu is 0.1%. In 2009, the H1N1 “swine flu” was declared a “pandemic,” and a national medical emergency was called here in the U.S. What was the final P&I for the “swine flu”? 0.02% That is, 5 times LESS deadly than the seasonal flu. How many died of the “swine flu” in 2009? 12,469+_. How many died of the seasonal flu in the 2017-2018 flu season? 68,000!! Was there a national emergency? No. Did we “space out”? No. Were our hospitals overrun? No. Did we run out of toilet paper? No.
When is a disease an epidemic? When the CFR (case fatality ratio) is above 7.3% (1 in 14). What is the CFR, worldwide, for the corona virus? Well, roughly, there are 219,000 cases around the presently around the globe, with about 9,000 deaths in total so far. The CFR? 1 in 24. 4.1% So, why is it a pandemic?
Here in the United States, over the last three weeks, 4,000 people have died of the flu virus, while over the last two months, world-wide, only 9,000 have died. What’s going on? What is the CDC thinking? What are our government leaders thinking? How long will the current Draconian measures going to continue?
The CDC botched the “swine flu” contagion back in 2009. But nothing is ever learned. I remember following the numbers back then and thinking there was an overreaction to its virulence; and, there was an overreaction. Final statistics for the “swine flu”: 0.02% P&I!
Some numbers to end with. Yes, Italy’s and Iran’s numbers are at about the 10% P&I level. But, guess what, they have older populations and, as we know so well, the elderly are the most vulnerable. In fact, today I looked at a couple of abstracts on the flu and on epidemics. One abstract concluded that whether a virus is at the epidemic level or whether it is below that level, those over 65, and who have underlying health issues, die at the same percentage levels. That is, even if Italy and Iran are at 10% P&I–above the epidemic percentage (while the rest of the world is below the 7.3% epidemic criteria), this only tells us that we’re dealing with older populations; not that we are dealing with an epidemic or pandemic.
And, so, the final numbers.
During the 2017-2018 flu season, for 16 consecutive weeks, from the week ending on December 23, 2017 until April 7, 2018, the P&I of the seasonal flu was ABOVE epidemic levels! Now, listen to this. Nationally, for 4 consecutive weeks, the P&I of the seasonal flu exceeded 10.0%?, peaking during the week ending January 20, 2018 at a P&I of 10.8%.
Three weeks: 4,000 dead from the flu; 140 dead from the corona virus. And we’re talking trillion dollar stimuli.
Who’s running the country? So much for scientists being scientific.
Here’s the bottom line: If the corona virus was going to be so deadly, we would know by now. Instead, with more and more testing and reportin, the number of cases will skyrocket, while the number of deaths will increase linearly–in line with the number of test being conducted, and then fall.
My prediction: I suspect, from inspecting these numbers, that the CDC will once again end up with egg on its face, with a P&I at, or below, the seasonal flu, a la, the “Swine flu” fiasco. And what suffering in the meantime–psychological and and otherwise.
Please, someone, tell me where I’m going wrong. Or else, pass me a Corona, because I’m old enough to have to stay off the streets.