Physicist Eric Hedin writes:
The idea of advanced life on planets beyond Earth and our solar system has become so popularized through blockbuster movies and the genre of science fiction that one can almost forget that the existence of such life has never actually been established. Quite the contrary. There is no scientifically valid evidence of life outside of planet Earth. And not for lack of trying.
People have spent tens of millions of dollars over several decades looking for (or listening for) some signal from an alien culture in a distant star system. Something that undoubtedly propels this ongoing search is an estimate of the expected number of intelligent alien races in our galaxy, as given by the so-called Drake equation. Astronomer Frank Drake proposed this mathematical estimate for the likelihood of extraterrestrial life in 1961. His equation attempted to take into account factors that Drake supposed were necessary for the existence of advanced life.
In its modern form, presented in most introductory astronomy texts, the Drake equation for the number of communicating civilizations in the galaxy is given by the product of six factors: 1) the number of stars in our galaxy, 2) the fraction of stars that have planets, 3) the number of planets in each system that exist in the habitable zone (at the right distance from their parent star so that the planet has liquid water), 4) the fraction of suitable planets on which life begins, 5) the fraction of those planets on which life evolves to intelligence, and 6) the fraction of a star’s life during which the life there is communicative (presumably via radio, or perhaps laser pulses).
We can estimate that about 200 billion stars exist in our galaxy, and it’s likely that 1/10th to ½ of them have planets, and at least 1% of those planets should lie within the habitable zone.[i] So far, this is just astronomy research.
However, estimating the values of the latter three parameters in the Drake equation is a much dicier affair. What’s astounding is that reputable astronomy texts will state, for example, that life begins naturally on anywhere from 1% to 100% of all suitable planets, and evolves to intelligence with the same probability.[ii]
That’s not merely wild guesswork; it’s wild guesswork that ignores much of what astrobiologists have discovered about the cosmos in recent decades. The Drake equation ignores multitudes of factors that cumulatively downgrade any realistic estimate of hearing from E.T., at least if we must depend on purely natural process for evolving alien life.
Combine this factor with others we’ve discussed, such as the need to have the right kind of star, avoiding binary star systems, getting the right kind of planet at the right distance from its host star, and combine those with various other constraints we haven’t yet discussed, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that truly habitable planets are likely to be exceedingly rare among the stars in our galaxy. It may even be that, due to the growing list of requirements for long term habitability, there is only one habitable planet in our galaxy, ours.[iii]
Excerpt from Canceled Science: What Some Atheists Don’t Want You to See, by Eric Hedin (Discovery Institute Press, Seattle, 2021), ch. 7.
[i] Bennett, Donahue, Schneider, and Voit, The Cosmic Perspective (2014), 442-443.
[ii] Bennett, Donahue, Schneider, and Voit, The Cosmic Perspective (2014), 443.
[iii] Ross, The Creator and the Cosmos (2011), 195-196.
as to:
In the following video, Carl Sagan, using those ‘wild guesswork’ numbers, via the Drake equation, calculates that ten technologically advanced civilizations may exist in the milky way galaxy alone.
Yet, and much to the disappointment of Star Trek fans, an avalanche of recent scientific evidence has found the probability of finding another planet with the ability to host advanced life in this universe is not nearly as likely as astronomer Frank Drake, and Carl Sagan, had originally predicted with their ‘wild guesswork’ equation..
And that is just the probability of getting a life supporting planet in the universe. That probability does not even take into account the probability against ‘simple’ life spontaneously popping into existence on that life supporting planet,,,
Nor does it take into consideration the probability against scientifically advanced, i.e. intelligent, life accidentally evolving from that ‘simple’ life on that life supporting planet,,
Moreover, and unsurprisingly, the fundamental flaw in the formulation of the Drake equation is that Drake and Sagan falsely presupposed the ‘principle of mediocrity’ (extended from the Copernican principle) to be true,
And yet, despite the fact that virtually everyone, including the vast majority of Christians today, presently hold that the Copernican Principle is unquestionably true, (and therefore concede the necessary premise of the Principle of Mediocrity to atheists), the fact of the matter is that the Copernican Principal is now shown, via our most powerful theories in science, to be a false assumption.
https://uncommondescent.com/evolution/neil-thomas-on-evolutionary-theory-as-magical-thinking/#comment-748883
Perhaps the most compelling piece of evidence overturning the ‘principle of mediocrity’ is the fact that anomalies in the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation (CMBR), (anomalies that were recently discovered by the WMAP and Planck telescopes), are found to ‘strangely’ line up with the earth and solar system,
Here is an excellent clip from “The Principle” that explains these ‘anomalies’ in the CMBR, that ‘unexpectedly’ line up with the earth and solar system, in an easy to understand manner.
Moreover, as the following paper highlights, we find that Radio Astronomy now reveals a surprising rotational coincidence for Earth in relation to the quasar and radio galaxy distributions in the universe, “implying an apparent breakdown of the Copernican principle or its more generalization, cosmological principle, upon which the standard cosmological model is based upon”,,,
And it is these large scale structures of the universe, combined on top of the CMBR anomalies, which, amazingly, overturn the Copernican principle and strongly support the ‘medieval’ belief that the earth should be considered to have a ‘central’ position in the universe.
As the following article, (with an illustration) explains,
Thus, contrary to the ‘mediocre’ presumption of atheists, (i.e. reductive materialists), far from the small temperature variations in the CMBR being a product of random quantum fluctuations, (as they falsely presupposed with their inflation model), the small temperature variations in the CMBR combine with the ‘largest scale structures of the observable universe’ to reveal teleology, (i.e. a goal directed purpose, a plan, a reason), that specifically included the earth and solar system from the very start of the creation of the universe itself.,,, The earth and solar system, (from what our best science can now tell us), is not just the result of some random quantum fluctuation as atheists had erroneously presupposed with their ad hoc inflation model, (a model which was ‘invented’ solely to ‘explain away’ the fine-tuning of the flatness of the universe and the homogeneity of the CMBR.
Of supplemental note: also see Michael Denton’s recent book, “The Miracle of Man: The Fine Tuning of Nature for Human Existence”;
There may very well be life, even intelligent life on other planets, who knows? Our “scholars” seem to believe Enoch was taken to heaven, but maybe he was taken to another planet. Who knows?
But the Drake equation is just an expression of wishful thinking, a symptom of the insanity that has plagued mankind from the days of Adam and Eve. Back then, it was, “If I eat this apple, I’ll be as wise as God.” Nowadays, it’s “Gee, we sure hope evolution is true because the idea of an Intelligent Creator is racist. So, since space/time just popped out of zip, zero, nada, then evolution must be true, too—life on earth must’ve just popped out of nothing because ‘the conditions’ were right. Therefore, since it happened that way here, it must be happening all over the universe. And moreover, since it is happening everywhere, we can put together a mathematical formula which will actually tell us how many other planets out there probably have intelligent life.”
This is “House of Cards” thinking; it is insanity and leads to more insanity.
After years of helping to create fictional worlds, a few thoughts. I think there is life in the universe. It may not resemble human beings but it could be humanoid and intelligent. Otherwise, I think it very likely that primitive organisms and perhaps plants will be found underground on Mars. At the least, I think bacteria will be found on Europa.
I heard the following on TV: If a planet is the right distance from its sun, has water, and the building blocks of life – amino acids – then life would appear there. It took me a while to realize: They don’t know that. They cannot prove that.