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Time to End One-Size-Fits-All Virus Response

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Trump’s plan calls for protecting vulnerable age cohorts while letting the less vulnerable get back to work. The two charts below demonstrate why opposition to this proposal borders on the insane.

The first chart is from CDC’s website showing COVID-19 deaths by age cohort as of April 17. The total is only 13,130, because CDC is behind in sorting this data. According to Worldmeter, total US deaths as of April 17 are 37,230. The second chart assumes the rates stay the same as the data is compiled (and I see no reason we should not assume that). Then I calculate total deaths as of today by age cohort.

One number should jump out at you. 3,315. That is the total number of deaths in the three months since the beginning of the pandemic among people under 55. In a country with a population of 327,167,434, that is .001%. That is 1 one thousandth of a percent.

Fact: The overwhelming majority of deaths are among the elderly.
Fact: The overwhelming majority of deaths are among those with serious preexisting conditions.
Fact: The government response is to treat young healthy people with practically zero risk of death the same as sick, elderly people.

The third fact needs to end, and that is the administration’s plan. You don’t shut the county down over a 1 one thousandth of a percent risk.

Comments
@MatSpirit Trump also said he doesn’t approve of Kemp reopening Georgia. He just doesn’t want the blame for the increase in deaths.Jim Thibodeau
April 23, 2020
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Here's a couple of interesting numbers to think about: 13,130 - Your figure for US Covid deaths as of April 17 from the OP. 47,275 US Covid deaths as of today, April 23. From https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/?itid=lb_coronavirus-what-you-need-to-read_2 US Covid deaths more than tripled in less than one week. And that's with social distancing. If we stop all social distancing, Covid has demonstrated that we can get back to 47 thousand plus deaths in two or three months. Oh, hey! Check out Sweden. They're not practicing any of this social distancing nonsense, their economy is open and their death rate from Covid is only ten times higher than the rest of Scandinavia and growing rapidly. Good luck opening up the economy before fall. (Did you notice that Trump distanced himself from Alabama's plan to reopen soon? When The Donald starts to back-pedal, you know the situation is pretty bad.)MatSpirit
April 23, 2020
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Though medical professionals had previously believed that the coronavirus mainly targeted the lungs and heart, new evidence has suggested that the disease can also shut down kidney function in a substantial number of infected individuals. As a result, many COVID-19 victims are in dire need of emergency dialysis treatment. New estimates heralded by Dr. Alan Kliger, a nephrologist at Yale University School of Medicine, suggest that between 20 and 40 percent of all patients in intensive care units due to the coronavirus are concurrently suffering from kidney failure. It is not only the machines that are in short supply. There is also a growing demand for the dialysis fluid and other supplies needed for the procedure, as well as nurses and doctors who are able to administer the treatment.rhampton7
April 19, 2020
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From the little non-expert research I have done Marie Antoinette never actually said, “Let them eat cake.” Nevertheless, a wealthy and prominent female American politician, in the midst of the on-going economic crisis spawned by the Covid-19 pandemic has basically said, “Let them eat ice cream, just like me”-- if not in word, then in deed. Frankly this is more out of touch than what the 18th century French queen had allegedly said because it really happened. We have the video. I am sure that the MSM is going to be jumping all over this. (Yes, that last statement was meant to be sarcastic.) https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/17/dear-nancy-pelosi-you-dont-need-to-pay-13-a-pint-for-good-ice-cream/john_a_designer
April 19, 2020
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Orthomyxo, treating people as if we were beasts HAS consequences. Both atheists and theists are fighting the pandemic. But if you say human life is purposeless, then you can not ask me to act as if it had value.Truthfreedom
April 18, 2020
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@Orthomyxo Fighting a pandemic requires logic (science, hygienic measures) and a lot of effort/ personal sacrifice/ compassion/ hard work. If humans are nothing more than 'purposeless beasts' and everything is 'void and meaningless', then the conclusion follows. I-am-not-forced-to-care-at-all-nor-to-collaborate. Neither are you. The world can burn.Truthfreedom
April 18, 2020
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But you don't thin they are bags of chemicals. You can think it's hypocritical for them to act morally while claiming to be bags of chemicals if you like, it might even be a good argument for a religious debates. Doesn't help us deal with pandemic though.orthomyxo
April 18, 2020
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@81 Orthomyxo Again, it is a question of logic. -If there is not a transcendent reality (God) -We are nothing more than 'molecules in motion'. Why should I care about 'bags of chemicals', please? Why? Why even lift a finger? Death is part of 'evolution', and I have been taught there is no prize neither there is punishment. Do not expect me to applaud irrationality. The best gift we have, IMO, is our capacity of being more than beasts. Embracing non-sense is harmful for society as a whole. And do not be confused, atheists are religious people. They believe that matter is the creator of everything. If you say logic should not be cherished, then you and I will never agree.Truthfreedom
April 18, 2020
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Democrats were going to have an easy time putting a competent, non-racist President in charge in 6 months. But with the incompetent disaster looming overhead, it’s even more certain.Jim Thibodeau
April 18, 2020
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@ortho
So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!
3/09/20 Current US deaths: 38,015.Jim Thibodeau
April 18, 2020
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Please explain how to have a ‘constructive’ conversation with someone who says he/ she is a ‘meat-robot’.
Very few people say this about themselves. Do you just be non-religious people? If so you can just ask them about their values and how they inform their preferences for different solutions. You might think its hypocritical to care about life and not belive in god. But is that important in deciding how to respond to a pandemic? If you just want to fight about religion that's fine, I guess, but not the most pressing thing just now.orthomyxo
April 18, 2020
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Ortho . “I just wish more construction conversations were possible, and there was less reliance on fighting between teams” Me too and I am sure Barry does as well. But you can’t expect conservatives just to roll over either when attacked by the left. This is not a political disease and does not discriminate. Vivid.vividbleau
April 18, 2020
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Orthomyxo No, not at all. I have perfectly read them. Under materialism/ evolution, you are nothing more than a 'deluded animal/ bag of chemicals'. The fact that they in practice do NOT behave according to that ideology means that their worldview is NOT true. Why should people then be taught a false ideology? Materialism leads inevitably to nihilism. It does not matter if it's 10, 100, 1000 or 1000000 people who die. We are all equally meaningless.Truthfreedom
April 18, 2020
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Barry @ 48: MS: " But I don’t understand your cost/benefit analysis. The ventilators still exist." Barry: "Now you are just making crap up. Stop it. Are you the only person on the planet who does not know that a couple of weeks ago the government signed a half billion dollar contract with GM to close the ventilator gap?" What did I make up? The ventilators DO exist! NYC didn't burn the ones it didn't need, it forwarded them to other hospitals that did need them. And even then, we're so short of ventilators that GM is making another half billion dollars worth of them. Do you know anything about the ventilator situation? We went into this epidemic with a smaller ventilator per capita ratio than Italy and our strategic reserves, which are supposed to cover a situation like this. were practically dry. Barry: "So now you’re saying the government did not need to spend that extra half billion, because it already had all the ventilators it needed; it was just a matter of getting them to the right place." No, I'm saying we were so desperately short of respirators that even after emptying our inadequate strategic reserves, we still had to order an extra half billion dollars worth of them and we'll probably need a lot more before this sorry mess is over. As anybody reading this has probably noticed, Barry has reached the point in his 'arguments' where he just lies about what his opponents said and starts slinging slander around. Childish. UD: Enough Mat. No one is listening to you. Move along. MatSpirit
April 18, 2020
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Ortho “So if there are people advocating many more months of lockdown, or plans to isolate at-risk individuals from society, then point them out and ill read them.” Cass Susstein. Vividvividbleau
April 18, 2020
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@74 Orthomyxo Please explain how to have a 'constructive' conversation with someone who says he/ she is a 'meat-robot'.Truthfreedom
April 18, 2020
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Truthfreedom, I think the fact that those people (or at least most of them) are now trying to save lives suggests that you misread them in the first place.orthomyxo
April 18, 2020
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Vivid, I already mentioned Matt's posts , I haven't read every single one but I wouldn't be surprised if others are feeding the flames too. Barry is welcome to defend trumps plan on its merits, or dismiss him (because conservatives don't have to line up with the current leader of the more conservative party). I just wish more construction conversations were possible, and there was less reliance on fighting between teams.orthomyxo
April 18, 2020
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Ortho “I’ve said this before, but it’s extremely worrying to see you and Matt (and many others) fall into party lines when discussing this. Is the prospect of hundreds of thousands of lives lost can’t get you to break from these identities in not sure anything will.” Other than these two words “Trumps plan” and endorsing the overall thrust of the plan, which others regardless of political party agree with in one form or another, it was not Barry who made it political (see post 2) by Matt. So Barry is just expected to bend over and say to Matt “ more please” ? Vividvividbleau
April 18, 2020
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@Orthomyxo It is a question of logic. No one wanted this pandemic. I am not angry. I feel sad. Why should we listen to people who say that we are beasts with no value and no purpose and that logic can change anytime? People who 'value' life while claiming we are 'chemical trash' and that killing babies before being born is 'good'?Truthfreedom
April 18, 2020
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@68 Barry Arrington: Yes. They say: 'there are no rules, but my rule is the one to follow'. The LNC is violated (again). People who are proud of being told they are mindless animals with no purpose.Truthfreedom
April 18, 2020
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I don't claim anyone can (or should!) put their values to one side when discussing this. But you seem to treat this pandemic as another front in the old US culture war., going on about progressive this and liberal that. Forcing solutions to this pandemic into the old identity politics just removes any chance of moving forward. Perhaps a site dedicated to the ID movement is not the place to get past politics, but similar debates seem to be common in the US (and not so much in other countries that I'm aware of). Like I say, it really makes me sad. I lived in the US for a few years and still have many good friends there. The political culture in the country makes me very pessimistic than this will be handled well there. I'm not sure why saying this makes you so angry, but that's the truth of it.orthomyxo
April 18, 2020
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These people (evo-materialists), for whom everything is subjective, have proclaimed themselves as the rulers of what should be morally acceptable. Meaning that now they are the objective measurement tool, to guide us all, the same tool they deny it exists. And by saying 'everything is subjective', they are claiming and objective truth exists. Lol. It would be funny if it were not pathetic.Truthfreedom
April 18, 2020
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Truthfreedom @ 62:
No one can win then, because who is the judge here?
Au contraire my dear sir. Go back and read Orthomyxo at 51. He assures us that he is above it all. We must hasten to ask him who is the most moral of all. I am sure he will enlighten us. I am placing my bet on the following pronouncement: "me." I may never tire of mocking him. That may be the most pretentious comment I have ever read in my entire life. It is stunning in its absolutely pristine lack of self-awareness and arrogance. My jaw literally -- not figuratively -- dropped when I read it.Barry Arrington
April 18, 2020
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Maybe the the garbage Trump states will be able to survive without the welfare from more productive states, but I think it’s just going to become a Third World country when the United States leave the union. Only thing that will inerfere with secession at this point is Trump states realizing how poor they would be without the financial assistance of the wealthy progressive states.Jim Thibodeau
April 18, 2020
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Lincoln Premium Poultry says two more employees at its chicken processing plant in Fremont, Nebraska, have fallen ill with symptoms of COVID-19. The company confirmed its first case of the disease earlier this week. The company has implemented a mitigation plan over the past month: the plant began limiting visitors to the plant before its first case was confirmed and screens the temperature of anybody who enters the building. Social distancing is practiced throughout the plant where possible—like break rooms—and masks have been provided to employees. Lincoln Premium Poultry also gave workers a two dollar-per-hour raise starting in March. The plant is considering further mitigation tactics.rhampton7
April 18, 2020
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A senior spokesperson of Foster Farms said that three people have tested positive for COVID-19 at the Kelso, WA facility. Ira Brill, the vice president of communications, has confirmed that those positive cases are two employees and one contract temp worker. He said the facility has a series of measures in place to protect employees, including active temperature monitoring and wellness checks, protective face masks that are issued to all staff, and an expansion of break areas to encourage social distancing. The company has also started installing dividers in workspaces where social distancing space is limited.rhampton7
April 18, 2020
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Six employees of the Birds Eye food processing plant in Darien, WI tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday, according to an internal company email shared with The Gazette on Saturday. Conagra is the company that owns the plant in Darien. Birds Eye is the name of the brand. The employee who spoke for an interview was concerned that workers—especially the seasonal workers at Birds Eye—were not in safe conditions, such as being closer than 6 feet from each other. Also, those who have been around positive cases were not told to quarantine themselves and are still working, the employee said.rhampton7
April 18, 2020
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The hydrochloroquine stories seem to be turning out very badly, but it sounds Like distancing seems to be helping though here in Florida there seem to be idiots and they’re going to cause a second wave.. hopefully in the next few months I’ll be moving back to Portland and when America falls apart from the religious crazies interfering with all kinds of problems, those states will form a better union that will fix things. It’s got to be weary when you’re in a productive state like New York and Connecticut etc and you’re having to pay for garbage states like Mississippi and South Carolina.Jim Thibodeau
April 18, 2020
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What I find fascinating is that all these people that say morality is subjective are fighting to show us who should win the 'I am the most moral of all people' prize, when according to them there is not an objective standard to measure that 'morality'. No one can win then, because who is the judge here? And that judge bases his/ her judgements on what exactly?Truthfreedom
April 18, 2020
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