. . . including, regarding major trends of our civilisation vis a vis the IslamISTS, also as a civilisation, we face “seven mountains of influence” issues.
Drudge headline:
The initial fall of the Pound off the cliff on the announcement from Sunderland that was the first clear indicator of which way the referendum would go:
embedded by Embedded Video
YouTube Direkt
Key initial impacts:
- UK Prime Minister, David Cameron has resigned, staying on as a three-month caretaker
- Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson (leader of the Brexit campaign) is tipped a likely successor
- A 2 – 4 year estimated Lisbon Article 50 leave process is likely to begin under Cameron’s successor.
- The Governor of the Bank of England has promised liquidity in Pounds and key foreign currencies to ease pressure on UK markets and the currency.
- Key stocks, starting with leading banks are off by up to 1/5.
- FTSE initially has dived 6.95% though as of this writing it has clawed its way back above the 6,000 threshold,
- the GBP dived 5.77% against the Euro (which is itself falling), and up to 8.46% against the US$, hitting as low as $1.36 down from $1.50 on the eve of the vote. The Yen is rising.
- Gold is surging, oil is falling.
- The Scots have long since warned that a Brexit would re-open the independence question, which would have major consequences for the UK’s geostrategic stance in the world, and knock-on effects for the global economy and stability.
- And much more . . .
Geostrategic issues are of sobering concern when we consider the global geostrategic situation:
_____________
[U/D Jun 28:] Let me add some illustrations to give geostrategic/ geopolitical background:
1: The classic heartland-rimland context:
. . . note a Cold war era-esque, rimlands oriented view of conflict lines:
. . . and a map of NATO vs the Warsaw Pact:
2: The practical Lebensraum goal c 1941 (expanding on Septemberprogramm 1914):
3: A Picture of today’s Euronetwork (Germany focussed):
4: Africa
5: Cecil B Rhodes as a Cape to Cairo Colossus (they had rail in mind then):
____________________
We must also ponder civilisation level trends, for which the (generic) seven mountains of influence approach may be helpful:
One obvious implication is this is a sign of rising nationalism in the midst of an unsettling and utterly atypical US Election year that just saw an assassination attempt — directly parallel to the murder of a UK Member of Parliament. (If anything, that would tend to favour Mr Trump; providing, he does in fact become the Republican nominee.)
As touching origins debates and linked concerns relevant to Intelligent Design and to the historic heritage of our civilisation, the key issue will be the power moves made during a time of uncertainties and instabilities. For, we deal with those of the Marxian type view that a “crisis” must not go to “waste.”
Vigilance, is eternally the price of liberty. END
PS: Pound, pounded
Here is 20 year context:
BREXIT! — initial impacts and concerns . . .
The biggest risk will be the breakup of the U.K.
Yes, and Scotland’s 62 percent remain vs overall 52% leave speaks volumes given what the SNP has spoken. Serious geostrategic consequences potentially loom.
I’m Canadian. I’m glad they left. I want to live. I don’t care if Belgium wants euthanasia.
Euthanasia for unwanted sexual attraction
and
Euthanasia as treatment for mental illness
I see the Brexit vote as mainly a rebuke of rule by unaccountable bureaucrats.
News:
But don’t we now have euthanasia in Canada? It passed both the house and the senate.
KF
What kind of consequences could come from Scotland leaving the UK?
EZ,
Ponder the historical relationships between the two, the resources and synergy brought to the table and to the wider world (for all the sins, doing a literal world of good) from the days of the Stuarts on. (And yes, I can feel the ancestral tug of the vision of Scotland, but there are days such that “Those days are past now, And in the past they must remain.”)
Then ponder a weakened, polarised, rump Britain in an increasingly dangerous age.
And that is before we get to the issues of economics etc.
KF
BA and KF
Since I make my living trading the financial markets I think I can speak with some authority RE Brexit.
For sure it is a sign of the rise of nationalism and a repudiation of the ruling class. Listening to some of the commentary on business channels you can hear the disdain the ruling class has for the common people. Cameron himself is under criticism for even allowing a vote. As one person stated “This is what happens when you throw cards up in the air” Basically saying that the people should never had a chance to speak for themselves.
I’ve been trading the financial markets for more than 40 years and I can say that the economic world is a mirror of our society. That is the economic world of ZIRP and now NIRP is insane and is a perfect reflection of the division’s we see on a societal level ( race, gender, class, income) and in our politics.Black Swans are everywhere.
The middle class is getting economically screwed and they know it while the rich get richer.
The EU with its 40k plus bureaucracy is suffocating their underlings, regulating everything from teapots to toilet paper. People have had enough. Unfortunately other forces are at work as well…times? well they are a changing, not necessarily for the good.
Vivid
Vivid, I keep thinking, League of Nations, as the 1930’s come on full blown. And yes, short sighted elites and manipulated publics with bought in technicos all are part of the picture. An ugly one.KF
KF,
I can fully understand your warnings about the current situation, the parallel with past historical events (which we humans don’t care to learn from), the potential consequences for the near future and beyond.
Please, allow me to make a quick comment to let a Briton himself tell us (again) his known reflections on relatively recent history.
Back in the 1970s a British citizen wrote the following brief historical analysis –which may sound kind of outdated because some things have changed– but still worth pondering:
Malcolm Muggeridge (1903-1990)
KF
Truth be told economics belongs in the philosophy department.
“History may not always repeat itself but it does rhyme” In one form or another the history of mankind is a struggle for power between those that rule and those ruled. Every bit of power the Govt takes it removes a liberty to the governed. Our founders (USA) recognized this having broke away from the monarchy. They knew what tryanny resulted in.
Over the years more power rests in Govt. It has been a slow steady march which always drifts towards more power by the ruling class and less power for the people. The struggle for liberty is always ongoing. I think it is inevitable that it is the people that will always get the short end of the stick.
Today we have the United Nations, the off spring of the League. It is important I think that those who most hold to individual liberty are those that recognize that man is deeply flawed thus Governments are deeply flawed and need to be restrained. Like the evolution of City States to Nation States, the next form is Super Regional States. Note the criticism that Nation States are part of the problem not the people that run them. Thus we need to to get rid of nationalism, sovereign borders, etc. in order to have economic security and the abolition of war, it’s inevitable.
It all comes down to ones view of the basic goodness or lack of goodness of man. If man is basically good then it is the system that is the problem.
PS you get to Super Regional Staes either by war or massive economic turmoil.
Vivid
They asked the British public to name a new important boat and they came up with “Boaty McBoatface”. So why are we surprised when they vote to leave the EU when their is deceit on both sides?
Humans are easily led by emotions and when people in power support selfishness and promote it what do we expect? This was decided largely on the arguments around immigration. The timing was awful for the remain campaign. Terrorism, fleeing refugees, times of economic stagnation – all of this led to people believing change in state membership would make these things better.
This is all part of a plan though,…
JDD
I heard , not sure if it’s true, that the regulations of their teapots was the last straw:) You don’t mess with the Brits tea!! LOL
Vivid
Haha! If only it was something truly British.
I have lived in the UK for a long time and it is frightening how the attitude towards immigration and the mild racist lies that are being fed to the natives are being lapped up.
vividbleau @12
How?
Vivid, very good summary at 12. I think that the European Union has done wonders for peace in the area. This is not because of the governing itself, but because of the free and easy movement of people between “countries”. The more that this occurs, the more that cultural/racial/religious stereotypes break down. We all have far more in common than we differ. We all want what is best for ourselves, our family and our friends.
Besides, there is no better feeling than to socialize with people when you don’t share a language. I have had the luxury to travel to all of the continents but Antarctica, 50+ Different countries, hand have been able to community cate in every one.
Dion @10
“How”
It won’t work but it is the next step in the progression.It can’t be the people running things so the argument is its the system.
Vivid
News, this is completely off topic but I thought that you might find some enjoyment in a FB group “Runnymede Remembered”. It is run by an ex student and teacher.
F/N: Vanity Fair, of all sources, has thoughts worth pondering:
BBC, on the SNP announcement — which prolongs the period of uncertainty and turmoil:
I am not so sure visceral hostility among “right wing parties” is the right locus of blame, noting for just one instance the role played by Labour supporters in the result.
The fundamental concern seems to be out of touch, unaccountable unresponsive elites and bureaucrats.
KF
Vivid, I suggest the UN is largely an irrelevant sideshow on Turtle Bay. The EU-NATO and its connexions in a network is much more closely the heir of the League. KF
What’s next? Canada declares independence from England?
Mung @ 22
Be our guest. Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
Barry Arrington @ 5
I agree. Brussels has come to be seen as remote, unaccountable, complacent, arrogant and probably corrupt. Much as Washington is seen in the US. Both need reform.
Both, resist reform.
F/N: I added a chart showing how the Pound went over a cliff and has been pounded. KF
Let us ponder how our civilisation is heading for a cliff . . .
This is why the founding fathers of the US established a federalist union of smaller “nation-states” and intended to keep the power and influence of the federal government to a minimum: they recognized the nature of humans to collect into and strongly identify with more local, tribal (community) groups; and they recognized the inherent problem of large, overbearing powerful governments removed by distance and characteristics from wide swathes of the citizenry.
The Nation-State is, IMO, about as large as an effective government can be (depending on the geographical size and diversity of population of the nation in question). Globalism is a utopian pipe-dream for the foolish and a tool for tyrannical self-empowerment for the unscrupulous.
IMO, the USA may be headed for a similar break-up as the entrenched global elitists try to force the rest of us down a path they sell as utopian but turns out to be a third world hell. Perhaps the nationalist/populist backlash currently going on will take a lesson from history and avoid extremist mistakes.
As an English Brexit voter, a few thoughts on why I voted out.
First, to take back our sovereignty. To be able to remove a single government, not a faceless multitude of people representing governments we never elected. To control our own laws, not silly law making laws like what shapes bananas should conform to. To be able as an island, able to control our borders; something like Australia.
We have been under the economic cosh for ages, some a lot more than wealthy others, and as a result of Bankers getting it wrong. Yet it was taxpayers who bailed them out.
Why should we bother if we suffer a little longer, cuts are still increasing to pay for the banker debt?
Economically, in the long term, to take back our own law making sovereignty is priceless.
Then there is the Council of Europe, who long ago placed their 12 stars around the teaching of their beloved Darwin, detesting any challenge.
The Council of Europe declared “It is impossible to reconcile faith and science” meaning faith based on Sinai and God’s word personally; as evolutionism is, “the central theory for our understanding of life on earth and for the reassessment of the foundations of our societies,” and “absurd” is evolutionary theories that included God. (Article 18, Resolution 1580, 2007) http://creation.com/resisting-the-secular-slide
(“The European Union is the Council of Europe’s most important institutional partner at both political and technical levels. Co-operation embraces all sectors of the Council of Europe and a wide spectrum of activities, making the European Union an ‘across the board’ partner.”) http://pjp-eu.coe.int/en/web/s.....me2/themes
In Judaeo-Christian terms, such resolution intellectually places a crown of ignorance on Jesus, making Him and the “Saviour” Father Yahweh (Isa. 43:11) to live in the past. Jesus then is tarred as an unworthy saviour, because He is not ‘scientific,’ not a truly knowledgeable saviour for all times.
Evolutionism means His judgement is seriously flawed on origins.
If the evolutionistic Council is true, then such scripture from Sinai, containing a clear cut divine law, becomes totally unrecognisable nonsense.
The Council of Europe went further, “Creationism, if we are not careful may be a threat to human rights, which are at the heart of the concerns of the Council of Europe, firmly oppose the teaching of creationism.”
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/C.....reationism
Surely it is not against teaching the flaws in Darwinism?
The Council of Europe has plenty to say about ID – it is dangerous:
“Creationism has many contradictory aspects. The “intelligent design” idea, which is the latest, more refined version of creationism, does not deny a certain degree of evolution. However, intelligent design, presented in a more subtle way, seeks to portray its approach as scientific, and therein lies the danger.”
The Father teaches creationism and as a divine law from Sinai; the Son upholds what the Father teaches, who are one in essence. The Council of Europe have made The Judaeo-Christian God a threat to education and hence, ‘human rights’: meaning, secularist education. Such is agnostic/atheistic captivity; the errors of Russia.
However, yes, the UK economy will pay initially, but all those in the UK now have to make the new British system work. Yes, there are challenges ahead, including Scotland.
Help is also needed from America, not putting us to the back of the cue!
Then again, Americans may vote Trump! He seems to like taking things back!
This was a good thing. The British people had almost given everything up. Polls ahead of the referendum said that people were responding 50:50. But many more people, when asked “What do you think the effect on the UKs finances would be?” ticked something to the effect of “Bad. I’ll be poorer.” They voted out in the full knowledge our economy would hit the rocks. I was one of them. I have never been prouder to be British. My children live in a parliamentary democracy and will get to keep their history and culture. All foreigners welcome, any time. We are out of the EUSSR!
The American people need to see we are hard working, honest and do the right thing. You can trust us with your investment because we are toughened industrialists with a fine history.
If you are getting peddled “it was the white working class xenophobia” load of balls out there, that’s what it is. Balls. A large chunk of voters were the elderly who fought in the war and rebuilt Britain. I know tonnes of Brexiters. Racist, they are not.
Many here voted Remain, and they had good reasons too. My family was spkit down the middle. But their priorities were not mine.
Arrogance and unaccountability having painful consequences, where the election is an institutionalised potential revolution. Message: do not corner the ordinary man.
It now looks like there is a “Regrexit” backlash. It’s noteworthy that the petition to hold a second referendum now has over two million signatures in support.
One other point, for all its faults, people underestimate just what an achievement the EU is.
Think about it, the states of Europe fought each other for centuries for various reasons, culminating in two devastating world wars in the twentieth century which left much of the continent in ruins.
Yet, within three decades, a group of disparate nations with different languages and cultures had managed to co-operate and build a prosperous and successful common market and were trying to move it towards a federal state. When has that ever happened before? The United States had the immense advantages of a common language and culture and even they fought a bloody civil war. The other groupings, such as the old Soviet Union or Communist China, were vassal states held in thrall by the brute force of a military dictatorship.
The EU ia an unprecedented (never happened in our human history) achievement. The union of the US was the first example of differences uniting, but the EU was the uniting of ancient hatreds dating back centuries; it will survive these early rumblings just as the US (the Federalist Papers) survived its birth: They have the advantages of knowing the US example, and being the home of enlightenment thought
Article 50 which must be acted upon hasn’t been tabled in the British parliament yet. Already the ‘exiters’ are distancing themselves from their ‘success’. Scotland will leave unless there is extreme backtracking. “Be careful for what you wish for you may actually get it!” This is by no means over.
The EU is a bloated bureaucracy and not accountable to those they govern. It favors large international corporations over small business as only the large ones can afford to navigate the regulatory burdens. It is a tool of the moneyed interest. Desperate all their public whining multinational corporations love heavy regulation because it is a barrier to competition.
No it’s not over, when you don’t like the vote, vote until you get the result you want. Actually I think something like this was said by a top EU leader. I will try to locate it if I can.
The stakes are so large for the moneyed interests that somehow someway this will probably be reversed by hook or crook.
Vivid
More on the potential dismembering of the UK: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06.....pe=article
My own thoughts: http://kairosfocus.blogspot.co.....r-300.html
It seems KF would have voted out.
Is dwindling Christian England afraid of being a little flock? Over half did not vote to stay, money or no money. It is an outrage that a democratic decision cannot be respected. We all voted as one! Note: as one! Not for some to spit their dummy out of the pram.
It is odds on, that Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland, would have found a pretext to leave England irrespective, that is why she is where she is following her loss in the Scottish English referendum a while ago! Sour grapes again!
As for initial good of the EU, Robert Schuman, a Catholic French minister of Foreign Affairs, in 1950, proposed that France and Germany should pool their production of coal and steel, the cause of centuries of enmity between France and Germany. The first European Community was born and from it, the European Union.
Closed was the process for his beatification in 2004. He had worked for a Christian Europe.
However, in England, June 2014, ‘coincidently’ following a similar European Council resolution of 2007, the secularist British Humanist Association was triumphant after lobbying when new educational laws were quietly introduced which, “prevents the teaching of creationism as evidence based theory in any academy or free school.” Evidence, interpretation, and “truth” come in many forms.
Irrespective; in Europe, ISIS had judged Paris a ‘justifiable’ target. Award winning reporter Iben Thranholm for the Danish Broadcasting Corporation, reported their murderous statement: “a blessed battle whose causes of success were enabled by Allah;” targeted because it is “a capital of prostitution and vice” and “the lead carrier of the cross in Europe.”
She mentions posted images were taken moments before the concert massacre showing people making a sign for horns (Black Sabbath first copied the sign into heavy metal) in preparation for a song from the Eagles of Death Metal; “Who’ll love the Devil? Who’ll sing his song? … I will love the Devil and his song.”
http://creation.com/terrorism-.....ual-vacuum
After Brixit, it seems that the banking giant HSBC, is pulling out of London 1000 employees and going to Paris.
However, no worries, in a letter, Darwin dismissed hell, and Christianity as divinely religion, and Jesus as divine.
Ironic, Darwin made a God in the image of war and death to give his theory some religious front.
Darwin certainly died to the Judaeo-Christian God, which speaks volumes for his theory. He wrote: “Thus, from the war of nature, from famine and death, the most exalted object which we are capable of conceiving, namely, the production of the higher animals, directly follows.” (Origin, 1859, p 490)
What; Jesus/God evolves life by natural war, famine and death; IS exterminating Christians, abortion crushing babies, and casting out divine law and Gospel teaching, when Jesus fulfilled six day Sinai law as God-Man (Jn 8:58) & (Matt 5:17-18)!
Where are we Brits heading if we carry on as we are? In 2015, The Spectator reported that by extrapolating the National Census (2001 & 2011) — the end of statistical Christianity in Britain is 2067.
Big changes are needed.
Apologies KF, “out” should read “in.”
Interesting piece, mw. But I would guess that Christians or those influenced by it won it for Brexit, because there is little for the establishment to frighten them with.
As for “end of statistical Christianity”: I’ll trust in God’s purposes not census data, thanks.
Pollsters can’t even get the outcome of a referendum right one night before the vote.
Already those whom DOL refers to as “asshats” have staged a faux protest based on a jimmied “petition” which had many 1000s of bent signatories. The people now rejecting democracy are those that try and win by whingeing with hashtags, shaming, no platforming etc. Most constitutional experts find it laughable: 100000 signatures from a website vs 17M votes to leave collected and counted under electoral law? Please.
The much vaunted Bregret photos are also staged nonsense. Not hard to find a flimflam voter who took a punt on something without knowing what they wanted now caving under social media pressure, wailing “I’ve changed my mind!”—as if it was reality TV.
The truth is, none of my leave friends have changed their minds. Shared the pain of the last few days (and months to come), sure. But this is the long game.
Both our major political parties have collapsed with infighting, laying bare their lack of principles and collegial respect.
Most people here just want to pull the plaster off and get on with it. There are alright signs of some stoic optimism amongst the grownup element, and sensibility returning to the markets.
Update, Yahoo News: >>NEW YORK (Reuters) – The $2.08 trillion wiped off global equity markets on Friday after Britain voted to leave the European Union was the biggest daily loss ever, trumping the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy during the 2008 financial crisis and the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987, according to Standard & Poor’s Dow Jones Indices.
Global markets skidded following the unexpected result from the June 23 referendum, in which Britons voted to withdraw from the EU by a 52 percent to 48 percent margin.
Markets in mainland Europe were hit the worst, with Milan and Madrid each down more than 12 percent for their biggest losses ever. Britain’s benchmark FTSE 100 was down nearly 9 percent at one point on Friday, but rallied to close down 3.15 percent.
The route started in Asia, with the Nikkei down 7.9 percent, and carried over into Wall Street as the S&P 500 fell 3.6 percent.
Mohit Bajaj, director of ETF trading solutions at WallachBeth Capital LLC in New York, said the severity of the sell-off was partly due to investors misreading the outcome and betting the wrong way.
“People positioned themselves longer because they thought the market was going to pop,” he said. “We knew that we were going to sell off pretty hard and people were kind of shocked by the market.”>>
KF
Splatter, I am quite concerned. KF
The European Union once adopted a resolution against creationism / intelligent design.
The dangers of creationism in education
http://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml.....38;lang=en
Creationism is the philosophical foundation of democracy. Opinion is a creationist concept, and choosing is the mechanism of creationism.
Now the EU is punished for being undemocratic and out of touch with people’s emotions. Justice is served on the EU.
I’m Canadian and welcome a vote here about living with our NATIONS. FIrst, Quebec, Multicultural, ana a few others.
anyways.
Not everyone voted and so they voted for the winner too. I think 25%. They matter too.
it really was about who is the boss. THe EU was taking over Britain by imposing conclusions without British support or ability to discuss things.
If a nation is going to exist then exist without other nations controlling you.
Immigration, religious, gay, feminist, etc issues were all being decided by the EU. Never mind the wicked human rights tyranny attempts.
True Englishman voted out. It was the others and dumber young people who voted stay in.
The good guys won this time.
By the way. The stock market reaction shows how its not related to real economy but instead impressions of the economy.
A lesson there too.
It was the leftwing elite that lost. Congrats to the people to strike at them.
When so many people want out of a unnatural union then they should be respected. in fact the STAY IN vote should of been needing say 70% to represent a united nation.
THe pro EU folks are the ones causing the trouble.
KF
I completely agree with the danger to world-wide economics. And it has been destabilising already. But you’ve not very specific about anything else. Are you afraid of a resurgent Germany then?
Robert Byers
That is just untrue. Not only did Britain have elected MEPs (Members of the European Parliament, one of who is one of the ring leaders for the ‘leave’ campaign, Nigel Ferage) but the UK had lots of veto priviledges.
Clearly you are ill informed as to the nature of the debate and who supported what side. There were lots and lots of businessmen, senior conservative politicians, the governor of the bank of England (who is Canadian), etc who wanted to stay in the EU.
Again, don’t talk about stuff you haven’t bothered to learn about.
You don’t live here and you are pretty clueless regarding the issue and who supported which side.
“Vivid “No it’s not over, when you don’t like the vote, vote until you get the result you want. Actually I think something like this was said by a top EU leader. I will try to locate it if I can.”
Found them. Here is what the former PM of Belgium said regarding a referendum on the EU constitution ” If the answer is no, we will probably will have to vote again because the answer must absolutely be a yes”
Jean Claude Juncker regarding the French referendum on the EU constitution “If it’s a yes we will say” on we go “if it’s a no we will say “we continue”
Look how the EU responds when people reject their mandate. The people voted to reject the Mastricht Treaty, The Nice Treaty,the French referendum on the constitution , the Netherlands referendum on the EU constitution,the Lisbon Treaty,the Euro bailout. All rejected .Every time the EU either made them vote again to get the result they wanted or just ignored the vote altogether! The most outrageous statement made by Juncker is this little ditty. “When it becomes serious we have to lie” He also said “There can be no democratic choice against the European Treaties”
The EU is anti democratic.
Vivid
Ell “That is just untrue. Not only did Britain have elected MEPs (Members of the European Parliament, one of who is one of the ring leaders for the ‘leave’ campaign, Nigel Ferage) but the UK had lots of veto privileges ”
The MEPs have no power. Also since the late 80’s Britian has voted 70 times against EU legislation and are 0 for 70.
Vivid
EZ, to see what I mean on a dangerous world, please cf the illustration of geopolitical concerns in the OP. KF
Vivid, point. Sobering. KF
F/N: Boris Johnson speaks:
I gather, man to beat for follow-on Prime Minister.
This part does not give me much comfort:
I thought, lowest level in 31 years against US$??? [Cf. 20 year trend added to PS, OP.]
$1.34 overnight, now 1.32, 1.36 Fri?
And:
Really? The SNP has already announced they are going for a second referendum — as warned in advance.
KF
vividbleau
And yet the UK had elected members of the EU. And the UK had veto powers over many things. And yet the UK could chose to leave.
And how many times did they agree with the majority and vote on the winning side? A lot more times. Look it up.
And it would be childish to ask that the UK always get its way. So please, look up the whole record and then decide.
The fact that the UK has affected EU legislation outside of their MEPs belies your statements. Famously Margaret Thatcher negotiated a special rebate.
If the UK doesn’t want to be part of the club then they are allowed to leave. And there is a procedure to follow as stipulated by rules of the club. This is not some arch-evil empire.
KF
I see you making lots of vague and grandiose statements that are not very specific. But you seem to dodge and dance without making specific predictions.
Please, tell us, SPECIFICALLY, what it is you are worried about. Not just ‘destabilisation’. Not just ‘a shift of power’. In particular what is it you fear?
The UK leaving the EU is having predicted and predictable effects on the global economic market but I don’t see that as a harbinger of the fall of Western civilisation.
I suspect you’re worried about Germany but will not explicitly say so. If I’m wrong then please tell me off.
Thank goodness the failed socialist experiment called the EU has stared collapsing.
Ell
My point is that the MEP’s have no power. The European Parliament cannot initiate legislation, propose legislation or repeal legislation. The power to legislate does not reside with Parliament rather unelected EU officials.
Of course it is heaven to be an EU official, who wouldn’t want to get on board the Brussels Gravy Train? They have their own shopping mall closed to the public. There are 10,000 EU officials 1/5 that make more money than David Cameron. EU officials get a moving allowance, a household allowance, an entertainment allowance, a healthcare allowance and a private education allowance for their children. No public schools for them.
As for MEPs they earn an extra 250 pounds a day, 41,000 pounds per year for phone bills,225,000 pounds for staffing and of course they charge themselves a special low tax rate. What’s not to like?
I won’t get started on the regulations like the 26,000 words of regulation for cabbage or the 12,000 regulations for milk and the 625 for coffee.
Vivid
EZ,
The geostrategic threats are identified, and Africa seems to be the continental resource base open for taking (unfortunately) — cf Mackinder on the significance of such, or the implications of Latin America for Spain, India for the UK and North America for the US over the past 500 years of a truly global world stitched together in the main by seaborne trade and then by continent spanning rail, telecommunications and highways.
C 1904, Mackinder and others after him saw rail and new comms tech as opening up essentially E Europe and Siberia as a continental resource base. They thought in terms of German and Russian states dominating that zone and through this the world.
The history of C20 has been shaped by two German and one Russian grab for just that base. Not mere coincidence. Look up, Lebensraum. Septemberprogramm is also illuminating.
In context, the recent developments of the UK may well lead not merely to destabilisation but dismemberment of UK, leaving just a rump state.
UK is of course a major power in the Western alliance, and especially as a guiding power (as retired from directly ruling the world order — Pax Britannica — through the Royal Navy 100+ years past). That alone makes me take sobering pause as I look at the matches being played with. (To get an idea, look at who is happy to see UK possibly being taken off the global board, and who are concerned or outright worried. It heartens me to see Germany in the latter column.)
Where maritime powers, though prone to colonial games, on the whole have been less of a globally threatening aggressive threat than continental ones. I suspect it is connected to requisites of trade and keeping sea lanes open. Of course, historically, being colonised has been a decidedly mixed blessing and slavery was a crime. However, it is to be noted that many peoples in the British empire saw beyond the evils and willingly stood to help hold the line in two world wars. We treasure many aspects of British heritage to this day, starting with parliamentary democracy and cricket. (Not necessarily in that order!)
So, yes, I am sketching an outline, but this is a serious matter.
And yes, I expect Africa to become a centre of major geostrategic confrontation in coming decades. With the Nile corridor (think, update to Cairo to Cape) and the land bridge of the Levant also coming into serious play.
Notice, it is not a coincidence that these are exactly the loci of much of what is grabbing headlines.
And, it sure looks like the Persian Empire is back (and back on the Syrian coast), with nukes or about to have nukes. (The Sunni-Shia contention for leading the IslamIST march is a secondary conflict in this.)
KF
PS: I added an insert in the OP, to give a bit more flavour to geostrategic concerns.
Some strategic context: http://www.europeangeostrategy.....-strategy/ (bit short on the Scotland exit front). More: https://www.clingendael.nl/sites/default/files/Brexit%20Report%20February%202016.pdf and http://www.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/pub.....Update.pdf
F/N: Second study above, by Peter van Ham:
Not enough.
We now face consequences.
KF
F/N: NATO vs Warsaw Pact, to further illustrate. KF
Moncton of Bretchley on Brexit: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/24/thank-you-america/
Point to ponder:
Is this perception well grounded, why or why not?
Are we being exposed to sobering geostrategic risks because of blunders in the organised governance structures of the de facto European Federation central government that seem to have forced a walkaway option?
Or, is there a better warranted explanation?
And, what about Scotland?
More from Moncton:
Muy interesante.
I wonder if that is why power of the people by initiative forcing a referendum seems to be most unpopular in halls of power?
KF’s world map marks concerns and potential trouble spots.
A spiritual warfare overlay may provide more food for thought. In Christian terms, we fight not against flesh and blood but against principalities and powers in high places (Eph 6:12). This world is a backdrop to such.
In relation, a small number of centres may feature on such a map. Down (England), Fatima (Portugal), Rome, and Dallas (USA). All, surely are involved in some kind of spiritual warfare.
It is believed that Satan is Prince of this world. Belief/thought is what holds this world together in human terms. The enemy is the best teacher.
However, the antichrist plan: start, from Downe, England, which exudes the chloroforming effects of Darwin, now having subdued and almost conquered the world.
If I was Satan, my first point of attack would be a divine law that could not be refuted. Six-day creation is just that, tied to a historically unbroken chain of worship that God asked to be remembered every seven days that He created in six days. Darwin is the means, under free will of humans to believe Darwin, who rejected Judaeo-Christianity and Jesus as divine.
Eventually, the Trogon horse of Darwin would persuade and coral like-minded evolutionary theistic Christians. Eventually through the Pontifical Academy of the Sciences, a pope would be beguiled, possibly from the antichrist himself under the influences ecclesiastical freemasonry. A true wolf in sheep’s clothing.
For example, at Assisi, as the principle worked there! All religions and beliefs worshiping together in terms of their own spirituality.
At the first world Peace Day (1986) Pope John Paul II kissed the Koran and had a statue of the Buddha on a Catholic altar, wrote J. Allan in letters to the editor, The Catholic Times, (UK) April 24, 2011. Also relating to Assisi, J. Thavis wrote in “Vatican Letter,” The Catholic Times, October 23, 2011, “A tribal chief from Toga invited spirits to enter a bowl of water.” In scripture, that is called sin (Deut. 18:9–14). At the time, the Catholic Church provided the facility.
That would be my strategy, and of course, the number of the Beast is the same as man; 666.
The chief errors of Darwin and Russia remain.
In England, Darwin was buried in a Christian church. Marx is honoured and buried in Highgate cemetery, England. His arrangement took care of by Engels, while the ashes of Engels’ were scattered at sea off Beachy Head, England. Ref also, http://creation.com/the-darwin.....-communism
I say the “errors of Russia,” because we now come to Fatima. An officially accepted mystical phenomena of the Catholic Church, having the mark of the Virgin Mary from 1917.
Basically, world peace is the message.
However, the request was, for the Catholic Church: that is with all the Bishops of the world, to consecrate Russia to the Immaculate Heart. Yes, I know for non-Catholics such sounds a bit flowery but bear with me.
Boy, as the Catholic Church tried to do such; alas never fully succeeding verbatim. Too many political problems, it would insult Russia and the Russian Orthodox Church. Besides, no Catholic is obliged to listen to any revelation. Scripture is canonical and nothing else.
Speaking as a Catholic, The Vatican is still faced with the prophecies of Fatima, which is now an approved devotion.
Still, a more sceptical naturalistic scientific explanation is given here: http://www.livescience.com/292.....racle.html
Nevertheless, ref, “An Eyewitness Account by Dr José Maria de Almeida Garrett, professor at the Faculty of Sciences of Coimbra, Portugal:”
http://www.fatima.org/essentials/facts/miracle.asp
There are many others.
The content of the message is here http://www.rosary-center.org/fatimams.htm
However, concerning Fatima, and the messages given to three children in Portugal, seems a done deal:
“The Church has stated the consecration has taken place and Lucia who died age 97 in 2005 confirmed it. The following are extracts from Tarcisio Bertone, SDB, Archbishop Emeritus of Vercelli, then Secretary of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith.”
“Sister Lucia personally confirmed that this solemn and universal act of consecration corresponded to what Our Lady wished (Sim, està feita, tal como Nossa Senhora a pediu, desde o dia 25 de Março de 1984: “Yes it has been done just as Our Lady asked, on 25 March 1984”: Letter of 8 November 1989). Hence any further discussion or request is without basis.” Congregation for The Doctrine of The Faith, The Message Of Fatima, Introduction (2000), http://www.vatican.va/roman_cu.....ma_en.html
Yet, Pope Benedict XVI said on 13th May 2010, before 500,000 pilgrims at Fatima: “Whoever thinks that the prophetic mission of Fatima is over is deceiving himself.” (Lawyer, John Salza, Pope Benedict Reverses Vatican’s “Party Line” on Fatima), http://www.scripturecatholic.c.....Fatima.htm
And, perhaps the uncertainty is reflected in Pope Frances recent consecration of the world to the Immaculate Heart. But why is that needed if Russia was allegedly consecrated for world peace?
Has the smoke of Satan covered the request?
According to one expert, there is indeed a “basis” for concluding the Church has not complied with the Holy Mother’s request – Russia has not been consecrated.
Precariously, in this case, God’s time will be the judge.
The world is not gaining peace, the world, Christianity, and the Catholic Church is more and more divided. Vast numbers of unborn children continue to die – a seventh of the world’s potential population.
This next bit seems as distasteful to read as it is to write. Apparently, Satan uses abortion as a means of a blood sacrifice. Satan is justified by the beguiled slaughter of the innocents and gains power from such. Dallas is from where the signal to abort legally was placed under starters orders, spreading death.
As for Fatima, a small problem remains: next year is 2017, a hundred years after the request. And later, when allegedly Jesus spoke to Sr Lucia: http://www.fatima.org/essentia.....tohier.asp
To put it simply: Jesus is alleged to have referred to the King of France, pointing out the following similar request “to have the Royal Court of France participate in a special ceremony consecrating France to the Sacred Heart, and to put the emblem of the Sacred Heart on the flag of France;” the King of France was given 100 years.
A king was beheaded 104 years later.
The hundred years for Fatima is up in 2017. The Church and people can lose heads in many ways, but oh for world peace under the Prince of Peace.
We shall see.
Darwin, an Englishman, surely pressed button hell when he unleashed his degrading theory. Still, people slowly warmed to such unseen spiritual captivity.
Of course, the gates of hell will not prevail.
What then does it mean, “in the end, my Immaculate Heart will triumph” for Catholics and world peace?
Christianity is a little flock, it has not world domination. But a little rump without a little flock is far worse than some would paint the outcome of the EU referendum.
That is possible, as mentioned, 2067 is the projected end of significant Christianity. http://www.spectator.co.uk/201.....istianity/
In my opinion, the Christian movement will be given another chance. England in time will recover, rebuild and prosper. Worry will not build or add anything to England; pulling together in a strong faith will.
MW, I find our lack of exposure to geopolitics and geostrategy — thence, grand strategy — interesting, esp given how powerfully it fits with global developments over the past 100+ years, and how tellingly it speaks to current events and trends; esp Ukraine and the perennial ME shatterbelt in the rimlands. Yes, it is a pretty grim view of history and policy — esp when one has a choice between a colonising maritime power and an aggressive continental one, but it speaks too well too often to be ignored. And yes, this is part of my context of deep concern for a civilisation in serious decay. KF
KF, yes, I totally agree with your grave concerns.
It only takes one man or race to fan a flame, and one God to deal out justice and mercy.
Still, Britex has democratically voted out, come hell or high water. We need people to pull us together; not divide us more.
Thank you for a very interesting and thought provoking post.
F/N: EU response to Sturgeon’s attempt to “simply” keep Scotland in the EU:
Of course, Spain has to deal with Catalonia and with Basque separatists, and while it looks at Gibraltar [which voted for stay by about 90%], it too has two enclaves on the opposite shore of the Mediterranean.
So, in effect the message is, to “stay” with the EU, Scotland will have to go through a second independence referendum process. Thus, Telegraph went on to say:
We live in interesting times.
KF
F/N: Daniel Hannan — We Leavers are not racists, bigots, or hooligans – no matter what the bitter broadcasters say:
We are here seeing an echo of an all too familiar pattern of narrative shaping and message/ agenda dominance that too often polarises by pigeon-holing people and painting them in lurid caricatured colours rather than responsibly engaging the substantial issues and views they raise.
It seems some time out for re-balancing may be in order.
This media message dominance and polarisation issue of course ties right back into a main theme of the UD.
There is a problem with our media-opinion culture, and if we do not fix it, it will do serious damage.
KF
BREAKING: Boris Johnson pulls out of the UK leadership race http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-36570120
Gotta love it.
KF is anticipating the exit of the UK from the EU as being some kind of harbinger of the end of Western Civilisation at the same time completely ignoring the fact that the EU is becoming increasingly secular and in favour of such things as same sex marriage.
KF, if you care to defend your views then please explain how Boris Johnson’s withdrawal from the Conservative (not the UK) leadership race matters.
(Please note: it is true that the Conservatives are the ruling party at the moment but the Prime Minister first has to become the leader of the party. And, in fact, the BBC news item you link to says that explicitly: Boris Johnson drops out of Tory leadership contest. Please try and get your facts straight.)
EZ, you seem to be missing what I have actually pointed to in the context of what you imagine I must mean. I have pointed to geostrategic realities, in explanation given your earlier remarks — cf 55 – 57 above and additions to the OP. These should show how well they explain key aspects of the past 100 years. They point to a very dangerous time ahead, esp. in the notoriously turbulent ME shatterbelt and in Africa, with extensions into Europe and the Americas. In that context, I have been concerned on the specific issue of a reduction of the UK . . . for a very long time, one of the lynchpin states in the Western, Maritime-Rimland Alliance . . . to a rump state given the issue of a likely Scottish exit. That could have sobering geostrategic consequences that should be borne in mind in onward considerations by the Scottish people. This is not just an economic matter or a question of nationalism in a vacuum. Ponder Churchill’s words on the Nazi takeover of Austria, if you want a comparison. KF
PS: I am fully aware of the Westminster definition of Prime Minister and its import: he who commands the parliamentary majority, which in this case is tantamount to the Conservative Party parliamentary delegation. Above, I have simply continued to update — the dropping out of the touted man to beat is a significant development all by itself.
KF
But you’re not specific! You just express some vague concern. Britain is no longer a necessary ‘lynchpin’, stabilising state. AND the UK is still part of NATO which also includes the USA and Turkey. And there is still the UN. Europe is now stable except for some internal squabbles about immigration and ‘sovereignty’.
So, what is it SPECIFICALLY that worries you about the UK’s exit from the EU? ‘[S]obering geostrategic consequences’ means what EXACTLY?
It’s interesting from a local political perspective but it’s probably an indication of an attempt by the Tories at damage control. Which is a good thing.
Oh, by the way, the British MPs are debating whether solicitation by sex workers should be illegal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36677693
The UK no longer patrols the seven seas. Europe is politically stable and increasingly secular. Some yahoos in England were whipped up into a frenzy by dopes like Nigel Farage and were made to believe that by some undefined magic England could be ‘great again’ and voted out of a free trade and free movement zone. Scotland voted to stay and is willing to exit the UK to be part of a bigger group.
EZ, if you refuse to accept that Britain holds a key role as a senior member and counsellor of the maritime-rimlands western alliance (which collectively guards the trade routes and stabilises the world), there is little more to discuss. I am fully aware of the UK’s long retreat from the world [e.g. on May 31, I took time out to pay personal respects to the visiting patrol vessel, in effect a coast guard cutter with token armament sent across the Atlantic] and how it in effect sought to become a European state. I also point out the basic geostrategic significance of the UK’s location as “cork” of the Baltic. Even so, the UK has been a key global force, on the whole for the good; reduction to a rump state would be a damaging weakening, especially given other weakenings in a dangerous age. Perhaps you may want to read vol 1 of Churchill’s history of WW 2, to get an idea of how such weakness opens the door to aggressors and to wars that could be averted through early, prudent action backed up by adequate muscle and a responsible critical mass (as opposed to “consensus”). I point you onward to Mackinder’s corpus (start here: http://www.thinkorbebeaten.com.....Theory.pdf ), to this survey: https://espacepolitique.revues.org/1714 and to a current review: http://www.badgleyb.net/geopol.....algeop.htm (you may also want to look up Brzezinski’s The Grand Chessboard as a fairly modern work). You will note that I point to an opening, Africa and its resources in the context of the IslamIST push and China’s search for a resource base that does not cast it into direct contention with Russia, as well as to parallels over the past 500 years: Spain + Latin America, Britain + India, The federated 13 former colonies + North America: continental scale resources count. A side-remark and comments in a blog discussion are not adequate space to elaborate a field of study in its own right. Though, I have pointed to indicators of relevance over the past 100 years, and to onward relevance. Maybe, at minimum, Wiki is a useful 001: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostrategy KF
PS: I am fully aware of the grand apostasy of the West and the underlying fatal intellectual pretensions — undermined by self-referential incoherence and amorality — of evolutionary materialist scientism. Plato’s parable of the mutinous mis-managed ship of state, suitably adapted to our circumstances, has much to say to us as does the miniature case study of the shipwreck in Acts 27 (which I think Luke in part penned in conscious reflection of Plato).
PPS: This survey is also useful: http://research.omicsgroup.org.....of_History
F/N: A “simple” Brexit vote breakdown:
of course, likely, Scotland views the EU as a counterweight to the toffs of the City.
We can see fault lines emerging all over our civilisation, indeed it is interesting to see here the difference between Caribbean elites and the quiet word form more working or lower middle class people with family living and working in the UK, many of whom voted for Brexit.
And a lot of people were thinking that the Brussels bureaucrats were too unaccountable, so use the opportunity to vote a way out.
KF
F/N: Fedja Buric of U of Sheffield Dept of history on a comparative with Yugoslavia:
Let us hope the comparison fails.
KF
F/N: Strategy Page on the Russian wild card:
Part of the context on potential geostrategic fallout from a “rump- state – ification” of the UK.
KF
PS: Chaos in the general Congo region: https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/congo/articles/20160630.aspx
PPS: Then, there is Libya: https://www.strategypage.com/qnd/libya/articles/20160623.aspx
It is interesting to watch these two pretending how they fight for our interests. It is actually sad, you know. They do not care that our problems ( I mean people who can’t stay three months without having to go to the 1 hour payday loan store), but they pretend that they do. In the end, it does not matter who becomes a president. I think it won’t change a lot for us, usual people. Well, at some point it will, but it won’t be a huge deal for sure.