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BREXIT! — initial concerns and impacts

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. . . including, regarding major trends of our civilisation vis a vis the IslamISTS, also as a civilisation, we face “seven mountains of influence” issues.

Drudge headline:

The initial fall of the Pound off the cliff on the announcement from Sunderland that was the first clear indicator of which way the referendum would go:

gbp_reacts_sund_voteout

Sky News live:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg

Key initial impacts:

  • UK Prime Minister, David Cameron has resigned, staying on as a three-month caretaker
  • Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson (leader of the Brexit campaign) is tipped a likely successor
  • A 2 – 4 year estimated Lisbon Article 50 leave process is likely to begin under Cameron’s successor.
  • The Governor of the Bank of England has promised liquidity in Pounds and key foreign currencies to ease pressure on UK markets and the currency.
  • Key stocks, starting with leading banks are off by up to 1/5.
  • FTSE initially has dived 6.95% though as of this writing it has clawed its way back above the 6,000 threshold,
  • the GBP dived 5.77% against the Euro (which is itself falling), and up to 8.46% against the US$, hitting as low as $1.36 down from $1.50 on the eve of the vote. The Yen is rising.
  • Gold is surging, oil is falling.
  • The Scots have long since warned that a Brexit would re-open the independence question, which would have major consequences for the UK’s geostrategic stance in the world, and knock-on effects for the global economy and stability.
  • And much more . . .

Geostrategic issues are of sobering concern when we consider the global geostrategic situation:

geostrat-pic

_____________

[U/D Jun 28:] Let me add some illustrations to give geostrategic/ geopolitical background:

1: The classic heartland-rimland context:

heart_rim

. . . note a Cold war era-esque, rimlands oriented view of conflict lines:

wrldclash4

. . . and a map of NATO vs the Warsaw Pact:

nato_warsaw_map

2: The practical  Lebensraum goal c 1941 (expanding on Septemberprogramm 1914):

Greater_Germanic_Reich

3: A Picture of today’s Euronetwork (Germany focussed):

map_GermanyandEurope_800

4: Africa

Map_of_Trans-African_Highways

5: Cecil B Rhodes as a Cape to Cairo Colossus (they had rail in mind then):

Punch_Rhodes_Colossus

____________________

We must also ponder civilisation level trends, for which the (generic) seven mountains of influence approach may be helpful:

seven_mountains_culture_agenda

One obvious implication is this is a sign of rising nationalism in the midst of an unsettling and utterly atypical US Election year that just saw an assassination attempt — directly parallel to the murder of a UK Member of Parliament. (If anything, that would tend to favour Mr Trump; providing, he does in fact become the Republican nominee.)

As touching origins debates and linked concerns relevant to Intelligent Design and to the historic heritage of our civilisation, the key issue will be the power moves made during a time of uncertainties and instabilities. For, we deal with those of the Marxian type view that a “crisis” must not go to “waste.”

Vigilance, is eternally the price of liberty. END

PS: Pound, pounded

pound_poundedx
Yahoo news on the 5-day pound trend.

Here is 20 year context:

GBP vs USD 20+ year trend
GBP vs USD 20+ year trend

 

Comments
Dion @10 "How" It won't work but it is the next step in the progression.It can't be the people running things so the argument is its the system. Vividvividbleau
June 24, 2016
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Vivid, very good summary at 12. I think that the European Union has done wonders for peace in the area. This is not because of the governing itself, but because of the free and easy movement of people between "countries". The more that this occurs, the more that cultural/racial/religious stereotypes break down. We all have far more in common than we differ. We all want what is best for ourselves, our family and our friends. Besides, there is no better feeling than to socialize with people when you don't share a language. I have had the luxury to travel to all of the continents but Antarctica, 50+ Different countries, hand have been able to community cate in every one.magna charta
June 24, 2016
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vividbleau @12
Thus we need to to get rid of nationalism, sovereign borders, etc. in order to have economic security and the abolition of war, it’s inevitable.
How?Dionisio
June 24, 2016
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Haha! If only it was something truly British. I have lived in the UK for a long time and it is frightening how the attitude towards immigration and the mild racist lies that are being fed to the natives are being lapped up.Dr JDD
June 24, 2016
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JDD I heard , not sure if it's true, that the regulations of their teapots was the last straw:) You don't mess with the Brits tea!! LOL Vividvividbleau
June 24, 2016
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They asked the British public to name a new important boat and they came up with "Boaty McBoatface". So why are we surprised when they vote to leave the EU when their is deceit on both sides? Humans are easily led by emotions and when people in power support selfishness and promote it what do we expect? This was decided largely on the arguments around immigration. The timing was awful for the remain campaign. Terrorism, fleeing refugees, times of economic stagnation - all of this led to people believing change in state membership would make these things better. This is all part of a plan though,...Dr JDD
June 24, 2016
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KF Truth be told economics belongs in the philosophy department. "History may not always repeat itself but it does rhyme" In one form or another the history of mankind is a struggle for power between those that rule and those ruled. Every bit of power the Govt takes it removes a liberty to the governed. Our founders (USA) recognized this having broke away from the monarchy. They knew what tryanny resulted in. Over the years more power rests in Govt. It has been a slow steady march which always drifts towards more power by the ruling class and less power for the people. The struggle for liberty is always ongoing. I think it is inevitable that it is the people that will always get the short end of the stick. Today we have the United Nations, the off spring of the League. It is important I think that those who most hold to individual liberty are those that recognize that man is deeply flawed thus Governments are deeply flawed and need to be restrained. Like the evolution of City States to Nation States, the next form is Super Regional States. Note the criticism that Nation States are part of the problem not the people that run them. Thus we need to to get rid of nationalism, sovereign borders, etc. in order to have economic security and the abolition of war, it's inevitable. It all comes down to ones view of the basic goodness or lack of goodness of man. If man is basically good then it is the system that is the problem. PS you get to Super Regional Staes either by war or massive economic turmoil. Vividvividbleau
June 24, 2016
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KF, I can fully understand your warnings about the current situation, the parallel with past historical events (which we humans don't care to learn from), the potential consequences for the near future and beyond. Please, allow me to make a quick comment to let a Briton himself tell us (again) his known reflections on relatively recent history. Back in the 1970s a British citizen wrote the following brief historical analysis --which may sound kind of outdated because some things have changed-- but still worth pondering:
"We look back upon history, and what do we see? Empires rising and falling, revolutions and counterrevolutions, wealth accumulated and wealth disbursed. Shakespeare has written of the rise and fall of great ones, that ebb and flow with the moon. I look back upon my own fellow countrymen (Great Britain), once upon a time dominating a quarter of the world, most of them convinced, in the words of what is still a popular song, that ‘the God who made them mighty, shall make them mightier yet.’ I’ve heard a crazed, cracked Austrian (Hitler) announce to the world the establishment of a Reich that would last a thousand years. I have seen an Italian clown (Mussolini) say he was going to stop and restart the calendar with his own ascension to power. I’ve heard a murderous Georgian brigand in the Kremlin (Stalin), acclaimed by the intellectual elite of the world as being wiser than Solomon, more humane than Marcus Aurelius, more enlightened than Ashoka. I have seen America wealthier and, in terms of military weaponry, more powerful than the rest of the world put together–so that had the American people so desired, they could have outdone a Caesar, or an Alexander in the range and scale of their conquests. All in one lifetime, all in one lifetime, all gone. Gone with the wind. England, now part of a tiny island off the coast of Europe, threatened with dismemberment and even bankruptcy. Hitler and Mussolini dead, remembered only in infamy. Stalin a forbidden name in the regime he helped found and dominate for some three decades. America haunted by fears of running out of those precious fluids that keeps their motorways roaring, and the smog settling, with troubled memories of a disastrous campaign in Vietnam, and the victories of the Don Quixotes of the media as they charged the windmills of Watergate. All in one lifetime, all in one lifetime, all gone. Gone with the wind. Behind the debris of these solemn supermen, and self-styled imperial diplomatists, there stands the gigantic figure of one, because of whom, by whom, in whom and through whom alone, mankind may still have peace: the person of Jesus Christ. I present Him as the way, the truth, and the life."
Malcolm Muggeridge (1903-1990)Dionisio
June 24, 2016
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Vivid, I keep thinking, League of Nations, as the 1930's come on full blown. And yes, short sighted elites and manipulated publics with bought in technicos all are part of the picture. An ugly one.KFkairosfocus
June 24, 2016
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BA and KF Since I make my living trading the financial markets I think I can speak with some authority RE Brexit. For sure it is a sign of the rise of nationalism and a repudiation of the ruling class. Listening to some of the commentary on business channels you can hear the disdain the ruling class has for the common people. Cameron himself is under criticism for even allowing a vote. As one person stated "This is what happens when you throw cards up in the air" Basically saying that the people should never had a chance to speak for themselves. I've been trading the financial markets for more than 40 years and I can say that the economic world is a mirror of our society. That is the economic world of ZIRP and now NIRP is insane and is a perfect reflection of the division's we see on a societal level ( race, gender, class, income) and in our politics.Black Swans are everywhere. The middle class is getting economically screwed and they know it while the rich get richer. The EU with its 40k plus bureaucracy is suffocating their underlings, regulating everything from teapots to toilet paper. People have had enough. Unfortunately other forces are at work as well...times? well they are a changing, not necessarily for the good. Vividvividbleau
June 24, 2016
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EZ, Ponder the historical relationships between the two, the resources and synergy brought to the table and to the wider world (for all the sins, doing a literal world of good) from the days of the Stuarts on. (And yes, I can feel the ancestral tug of the vision of Scotland, but there are days such that "Those days are past now, And in the past they must remain.") Then ponder a weakened, polarised, rump Britain in an increasingly dangerous age. And that is before we get to the issues of economics etc. KFkairosfocus
June 24, 2016
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KF
Yes, and Scotland’s 62 percent remain vs overall 52% leave speaks volumes given what the SNP has spoken. Serious geostrategic consequences potentially loom.
What kind of consequences could come from Scotland leaving the UK?ellazimm
June 24, 2016
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News:
I’m Canadian. I’m glad they left. I want to live. I don’t care if Belgium wants euthanasia.
But don't we now have euthanasia in Canada? It passed both the house and the senate.magna charta
June 24, 2016
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I see the Brexit vote as mainly a rebuke of rule by unaccountable bureaucrats.Barry Arrington
June 24, 2016
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I'm Canadian. I'm glad they left. I want to live. I don't care if Belgium wants euthanasia. Euthanasia for unwanted sexual attraction and Euthanasia as treatment for mental illnessNews
June 24, 2016
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Yes, and Scotland's 62 percent remain vs overall 52% leave speaks volumes given what the SNP has spoken. Serious geostrategic consequences potentially loom.kairosfocus
June 24, 2016
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The biggest risk will be the breakup of the U.K.magna charta
June 24, 2016
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BREXIT! -- initial impacts and concerns . . .kairosfocus
June 24, 2016
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