This is one of those very rare times when the lottery bet has a positive mathematical expected value. Expected value is calculated as: (Amount possibly won * probability of winning) minus (Amount of bet * probability of losing). The probability of winning Mega Millions is 1 in 302,575,350. The next jackpot is $904 million (cash value of $1.6 billion annuity). The expected value is ($904,000,000 * 1/302,575,350) minus ($2.00 * .9999999999999999999) = $0.98. This means on average in the long run, for every $2.00 ticket you buy, you would expect to win $2.98 if the jackpot were always $904 million.  Of course, you still lose the whole $2.00 every time you lose, which is almost always.  Still, on average, over the Read More ›

… not only is the mind real but it is so real that nature doesn’t even matter. Barry Arrington wrote here recently, Elizabeth Warren says that a DNA report that shows she is between 1/1024th and 1/64th Colombian, Mexican or Peruvian absolutely scientifically proves her claim that she was a Cherokee Indian, so President Trump must pay up on his $1 million bet. But Elizabeth Warren is also a strong supporter of the trans-gender movement. So she also believes that a DNA report that shows a person has an XY chromosome is scientifically meaningless with respect to whether the person is a male and a DNA report that shows a person has an XX chromosome is scientifically meaningless with respect Read More ›

You read the title right. Recently, some astronomers thought they had spotted an “exomoon,” a moon orbiting an exoplanet. There are, of course, bound to be some. But now Gizmodo introduces us to the concept of the moonmoon, a submoon orbiting a moon. One research team is taking on the possibility: The team’s short analysis found that small submoons, perhaps 10 kilometers in radius, could only survive around large moons (such as the ones we see in our Solar System) far away from the host planet, according to the paper published on the arXiv preprint server. Moons that are too close to their host planets or too small might lose their submoons to tidal forces from the planet—shredding the submoon Read More ›

The Standard Model of physics holds that electrons should be almost perfectly round. As it happens, The electron gets its shape from the way that positive and negative charges are distributed inside the particle. The best theory for how particles behave, called the standard model of particle physics, holds that the electron should keep its rotund figure almost perfectly. But some theories suggest that an entourage of hypothetical subatomic particles outside the electron could create a slight separation between the positive and negative charges, giving the electron a pear shape. Now, the Advanced Cold Molecule Electron Electric Dipole Moment, or ACME, search, based at Harvard University, has probed the electron’s EDM with the most precision ever — and still found Read More ›

That might not be what we’d have expected to hear about the twentieth century novelist and philosopher but reader Eric Holloway sends us this item: I am not a student of the theory of evolution and, therefore, I am neither its supporter nor its opponent. But a certain hypothesis has haunted me for years; I want to stress that it is only hypothesis. There is an enormous breach of continuity between nature and man’s consciousness, in its distinctive characteristic: his conceptual faculty. It is as if, after aeons of physiological development, the evolutionary process altered its course, and the higher stages of development focused primarily on the consciousness of living species, not their bodies. But the development of a man’s Read More ›

They don’t usually write this way at Nature: Dandelion seeds fly using a method that researchers thought couldn’t work in the real world, according to a study1 published on 17 October in Nature. When some animals, aeroplanes or seeds fly, rings of circulating air called vortices form in contact with their wings or wing-like surfaces. These vortices can help to maintain the forces that lift the animal, machine or seed into the air. Researchers thought that an unattached vortex would be too unstable to persist in nature. Yet the light, puffy seeds of dandelions use vortices that materialize just above their surfaces and lift the seed into the air.Jeremy Rehm, “Dandelion seeds fly using ‘impossible’ method never before seen in Read More ›

Published in a Springer journal: Another University of Alberta professor published a piece in the Canadian Journal of Science, Math, Technology, and Education, saying that to simply teach students science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) is objectively bad, apparently because it cultivates, and I am listing this directly from the document: “[P]atriarchy, heteronormativity, white supremacy, Eurocentrism, (neo-)colonialism, ableism, classism, labor inequity, anthropocentrism, and/or others.”Keean Bexte, “University of Alberta prof calls for upheaval of science to benefit the “oppressed”” at Rebel Media Marc Higgins and colleagues’ paper (open access) is here. From the opening: It has been argued many times over the course of decades and across diverse paradigms that science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education practices-as-usual (re)produce systems of Read More ›

Getting it right is important for the search for life on Mars: Found in 3.7-billion-year-old rocks in Greenland, the mounds strongly resemble cone-shaped microbial mats called stromatolites, researchers reported in 2016. But a new analysis of the shape, internal layers and chemistry of the structures suggests that the mounds weren’t shaped by microbes but by tectonic activity. The new work, led by astrobiologist Abigail Allwood of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., was published online October 17 in Nature. … The debate highlights how important it will be to understand as much as possible about the geologic setting of a future Mars landing site, if scientists hope to spy evidence that there was once life there. It’s hard enough Read More ›

Here’s a reasonable take on Warren’s DNA results: Using this data, the original analysis, which was prepared by a respected geneticist, determined that five segments of Sen. Warren’s DNA — totaling about 12.3 million bases (“letters”) — are of Native American ancestry. That might sound like a lot, but the human genome contains more than 3.2 billion bases, which means that only about 0.4% of Sen. Warren’s DNA sequence can be attributed to Native American ancestry. Thus, the vast, vast majority of her DNA is of European descent. Though her pedigree probably contains a Native American ancestor, he or she existed six to ten generations ago. If a generation is roughly 25 years, that means that Sen. Warren’s (possibly one Read More ›

From ScienceDaily: Unicellular diatoms are able to adapt their behavior to different external stimuli based on an evaluation of their own needs. This was discovered by scientists of the Friedrich Schiller University and the Max Planck Institute for Chemical Ecology in Jena, Germany, together with partners from Belgium. The algae depend on nutrients in order to reproduce. However, they also need sexual mates which they find when they follow pheromone traces. In experiments, Seminavis robusta diatoms directed their orientation either towards nutrient sources or mating partners, depending on the degree of starvation and the need to mate. The tiny organisms demonstrated in fact a primitive form of behavioral biology. … “It is striking that even unicellular organisms that obviously lack Read More ›

Elizabeth Warren says that a DNA report that shows she is between 1/1024th and 1/64th Colombian, Mexican or Peruvian absolutely scientifically proves her claim that she was a Cherokee Indian, so President Trump must pay up on his $1 million bet. But Elizabeth Warren is also a strong supporter of the trans-gender movement.  So she also believes that a DNA report that shows a person has an XY chromosome is scientifically meaningless with respect to whether the person is a male and a  DNA report that shows a person has an XX chromosome is scientifically meaningless with respect to whether the person is a female. Insanity.

Could that be a factor in the recent meltdowns? A recent open access study of textbooks out of the University of Nevada addresses that case: Almost a quarter of the sampled textbooks explicitly and boastfully stated that there is no difference between psychology and other “hard” sciences such as chemistry and physics. Yet only one textbook discussed “methodological freedom” – the idea asserted by the philosopher-critic of science, Paul Feyerabend, that all scientific techniques are different. Only one textbook mentioned the issue of improper use of ad hoc hypotheses, a characteristic of pseudoscience. Similarly, there was only one reference to the ideas put forward by Feyerabend and Alan Gross that persuasion and rhetoric are a key part of science – i.e. Read More ›

Elizabeth Warren: I am a Cherokee Indian. Trump: Liar. I bet you $1 million you are not an Indian. Warren: Here is a DNA report that “strongly indicates” that I am between 1/1024 and 1/64 Mexican, Colombian, or Peruvian. I win the bet. Pay up. Trump: Wait, what? Main Stream Media: Yep, she won. Pay up you Welcher Bob O’H: She never claimed to be an Indian. And when she did claim to be an Indian it did not benefit her, so we shouldn’t care that she is a liar. Even though she is not a liar, because even though she is a blonde, blue-eyed white person, you can’t prove she absolutely did not know she was not an Indian. Read More ›

In a previous post, I indicated that Dr. Frances Arnold’s Nobel Prize in Chemistry points out that Artificial Selection is more powerful a force than Natural Selection. In a new paper, the authors show that the idea of the ‘gradual’ evolution of foraminifera turns out to be wrong and that what actually happens is an “abrupt” evolution. Neogene planktonic foraminiferal fossil lineages have been used to interpret gradualism (Arnold, 1983; Belyea and Thunell, 1984; Wei, 1987; Wei and Kennett, 1988), PE (Wei and Kennett, 1988), and punctuated anagenesis (Malmgren et al., 1983, 1996). However, the last decade has seen the emergence of sophisticated model-fitting techniques for time series that are ideal tools for testing the evolutionary tempo and mode (Hunt, Read More ›

Recent cosmic ray activity in Antartica is  provoking question and speculation: Physicists don’t know what it is exactly. But they do know it’s some sort of cosmic ray — a high-energy particle that’s blasted its way through space, into the Earth, and back out again. But the particles physicists know about — the collection of particles that make up what scientists call the Standard Model (SM) of particle physics — shouldn’t be able to do that. Sure, there are low-energy neutrinos that can pierce through miles upon miles of rock unaffected. But high-energy neutrinos, as well as other high-energy particles, have “large cross-sections.” That means that they’ll almost always crash into something soon after zipping into the Earth and never make it Read More ›