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Climate change: Significantly limiting the right to be considered a “skeptic”

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As opposed to a denier:

I propose a basic test to determine who has earned the benefit of the doubt on whether to be labelled a denier or not.

Does the person have an academic or professional background in atmospheric science or climatology? If the answer is yes, then they earn the benefit of the doubt and should not be called a denier.

Does the person have an academic or professional background in another discipline and not a climate-related field? If the answer is yes, then they have not earned the right to be called anything other than a denier. Brian Brettschneider, “Climate Change Skeptic Or Denier?” at Forbes

Reader Otto Pellinen writes to say,

This article has an interesting take on appeals to authority:

– If you are yourself an expert, and you hold a minority position, you are a skeptic. This means you have a legitimate position of doubt.

– If you don’t have expertise, and you hold a minority position, you are a denier. Period. You should simply give the experts what they deserve, and trust that the consensus will reflect reality more closely than your naïve approach.

Let us assume for a moment that this principle is all true and rational. What happens?

Assume there is a multidisciplinary paradigm X holding a majority position. Suppose we are talking about disciplines A, B and C. Here you should be an expert in multiple fields of study in order to be legitimately called a skeptic, rather than a denier. Nearly the experts of A are not experts in B or C, so to question the paradigm X they would be deniers with respect to these fields. The same holds for experts of B and C. Very few people will be experts in all three fields, so they can be dismissed as a marginal minority.

Here we have a locked situation, in which any multidisciplinary consensus efficiently prevents experts from questioning the paradigm.

True, and the formula very much limits the role of informed judgment, a useful quality that is distinct from direct expertise. Informed judgment would include reflection on the relationship between pronouncements on matters of concern and the political and economic fortunes of the group making the pronouncements, for example.

When professionals’ livelihood and social status depends on a given state of affairs being accepted as fact, it is mere prudence to seek alternative viewpoints from less dependent sources before we commit to anything.

See also: Union of Concerned Scientists inconsistent as apocalypse marketing agency

Union of Concerned Scientists got started during the Viet Nam war, which could be the reason their rallying cry seems to be A-crock-a-lypse Now!

See also: A scientist shares his cyberbullying story: The anonymity that the internet offers can free academic scientists of the restraints that would typically govern their public behaviour. So trolling becomes the new peer review.

And Bill Nye thinks scientists who doubt human-caused global warming should be jailed. Sure, like Galileo.

It might surprise people who get their science history from Joe Bullroar and Bimbette Fluffarelli of Airhead TV, it was not at all clear centuries ago that Galileo and Copernicus were correct about the basic structure of the solar system. Many respected astronomers thought them obviously wrong for evidence-based reasons. It took decades to be sure who was right.

Comments
a constructive conversation is not really desired
You're correct. It's not. Andrewasauber
August 9, 2018
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What's funny is that the appearance (or lack thereof) of an actual hurricane totally throws the numbers. ;) Andrewasauber
August 9, 2018
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re 13, to asauber: Don't ask me questions and then answer for me. That is a poor way to have a constructive conversation, and a pretty sure indicator that in fact a constructive conversation is not really desired.jdk
August 9, 2018
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And this is just too funny: "Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60 percent (up from 25 percent in May) in the updated outlook, issued today. The likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, and the chance of an above-normal season has dropped from 35 percent to 10 percent." https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/08/09/noaa-forecasters-lower-atlantic-hurricane-season-prediction/ If it's NOAA, its got to be good, right? It's in the letters, ya know. Andrewasauber
August 9, 2018
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Stats and probability are one of the least intuitive aspects of mathematics, and it takes quite a bit of education (by educational institutions, I might add) to properly analyze and interpret large data sets.
jdk, So I take it you can tell when a large data set has been "properly" analyzed by someone? If you think that person the proper credentials, right? Andrewasauber
August 9, 2018
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At 3, asuaber writes, " Pretty much all adults can evaluate statistics, unless their minds have been ruined by faulty educational institutions." LOL! Stats and probability are one of the least intuitive aspects of mathematics, and it takes quite a bit of education (by educational institutions, I might add) to properly analyze and interpret large data sets.jdk
August 9, 2018
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Another follow-up for Prof Bob would be: Since you are a Stats Prof, have you evaluated any climate statistics? Why or why not? Any guess on what the probability is that you might find issues if you did? Andrewasauber
August 9, 2018
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I guess the clarifying question for Bob O'H is: Should Joe Street Climate Changer rely on expert opinion only? Or should he evaluate the information presented to him? Andrewasauber
August 9, 2018
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Strange or very telling that climate models have been wrongET
August 9, 2018
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yes there is a lot of statistical knowledge that a lot of people do not possess Inside Baseball? Anyway, Bob O'H, aren't the statistics that are informing the public about Climate Change the same statistics that are informing climate scientists about Climate Change? Andrewasauber
August 9, 2018
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asauber @ 3 -
Climatology has chosen to be the study of weather-related statistics. That’s all it is. I don’t think people who engage in statistical studies are endowed with any special gifts of knowledge none of the rest of us have. Pretty much all adults can evaluate statistics, unless their minds have been ruined by faulty educational institutions.
I think I can claim some authority on statistics (it's what I'm a professor of), so a couple of comments: 1. Climatology is about more than statistics. A lot is about modelling the physical processes. There is a lot of physical modelling that goes on. 2. Of course statisticians are endowed with special gifts of knowledge, it's what makes us superior beings. *ahem* More seriously, yes there is a lot of statistical knowledge that a lot of people do not possess. Some of this is well known in numerate circles (you may or may not know about the prosecutor's fallacy or Simpson's paradox), some is not (the Hauck-Donner effect is obscure but an absolute menace to the unwary, for example). I'm sure the same is true for climatology: I'm not a climatologist, but I would be astonished if there aren't aspects of the area that are not well known outside the subject, but which have a large effect on how the experts view climate. One of the nice tings about being a statistician is you get to play in everyone else's backyard. Which means to soon learn that everyone else has a lot of expert knowledge about their area, which should be respected.Bob O'H
August 9, 2018
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CO2 only absorbs in 3 different wavelengths of IR. That equals a mere 8% of what the Earth radiates. And thanks to thermodynamics the Earth only radiates where and when its surface is warmer than the atmosphere- mostly a few hours at night before an equilibrium is reached. That 8% is halved due to the fact the CO2 re-emits in random directions. So the Earth is losing 100% and in return from the CO2 it gets 4% @ 410PPM. That doesn't seem like it could cause any warming beyond slightly slowing down the cooling which would skew the daily temperature average. There is also the fact that our clean-air policies have worked which has allowed more solar radiation to reach the earth's surface causing warming. Urban heat islands are real which also skew the daily average. And our clear-cutting or forests adds to any problems we have already caused. So it isn't the CO2- we all die if the CO2 gets to below 150PPM (plants will die first and we will follow). It is everything else we are doing. Glaciers melt even in freezing temps because they are covered in soot.ET
August 9, 2018
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'Pretty much all adults can evaluate statistics, unless their minds have been ruined by faulty educational institutions.' Ha Ha Ha.
Why Smart People Are Stupid By Jonah LehrerJune 12, 2012 And here’s the upsetting punch line: intelligence seems to make things worse. The scientists gave the students four measures of “cognitive sophistication.” As they report in the paper, all four of the measures showed positive correlations, “indicating that more cognitively sophisticated participants showed larger bias blind spots.” This trend held for many of the specific biases, indicating that smarter people (at least as measured by S.A.T. scores) and those more likely to engage in deliberation were slightly more vulnerable to common mental mistakes. Education also isn’t a savior https://www.newyorker.com/tech/frontal-cortex/why-smart-people-are-stupid
bornagain77
August 9, 2018
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If I could interview a public-facing climate scientist, I would ask him what was the most important thing he knew (or believed) about the climate I didn't know. I suspect I could start having a little fun at that point. Andrewasauber
August 9, 2018
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Does the person have an academic or professional background in another discipline and not a climate-related field?
Climatology has chosen to be the study of weather-related statistics. That's all it is. I don't think people who engage in statistical studies are endowed with any special gifts of knowledge none of the rest of us have. Pretty much all adults can evaluate statistics, unless their minds have been ruined by faulty educational institutions. I've been following the Global Warming issue for many years and I can say that most climate scientists presented to the public as experts don't know anything more about the climate than someone on the street who takes a few minutes to familiarize themselves with the information available. Andrewasauber
August 9, 2018
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A suggestion: Dispense with the labels and focus on the evidence and arguments. One slight issue is that (IMHO) a lot of the people who sling derogatory labels at one another don't have a clue about the actual science. I count myself among the clueless, btw. And while this position is indeed prudent:
... Informed judgment would include reflection on the relationship between pronouncements on matters of concern and the political and economic fortunes of the group making the pronouncements, for example. When professionals' livelihood and social status depends on a given state of affairs being accepted as fact, it is mere prudence to seek alternative viewpoints from less dependent sources before we commit to anything.
one must always be careful not to slip into motive mongering.daveS
August 9, 2018
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I wish we could stop using Galileo and Copernicus as examples of a clear objective right/wrong situation. In fact this is the BEST example of REAL subjectivity. Ptolemy and Galileo were both equally wrong, but both of their models are useful and convenient in some circumstances. It literally depends on your viewpoint. If you're doing earthbound calculations, Ptolemy's system is easier. If you're sending a rocket to Mars, Galileo works better. If you're calculating cosmic stuff, both are useless. Very few of us need to send a rocket to Mars, so the geocentric system is all we ever need.polistra
August 9, 2018
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