Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Evidence Against Chance and Necessity (Also Known As Darwinism) is Evidence for Design

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In another thread, poster madsen presented the following challenge:

I’m holding out hope that the next post will concern positive evidence for ID rather than more critiques of Darwin.

In mathematics there is a method of proof called “proof by contradiction.” The logic behind this proof is the following: Establish two possible alternatives. Assume that one of the alternatives is true, and prove it to be logically contradictory. A superb example of proof by contradiction is Euclid’s (circa 300 BC) proof that the number of primes is infinite.

Let’s apply the method of proof by contradiction to the chance-and-necessity versus design debate.

Of course, this is not a mathematical model, but there are some very illuminating similarities. There are two options: 1) design (foresight and planning), and 2) the materialistic laws of physics, chemistry, and probability – which are purported to have produced all biological phenomena, from the information-processing machinery of the cell to the human mind.

Option 2) might have been believable in the 19th century, when it was thought that life was fundamentally simple, but it is completely unsupportable in light of modern science. The preponderance of scientific evidence and mathematical analysis weighs overwhelming in support of design, as a proof by contradiction.

Let us not hear about “self-organization.” Sodium chloride forms salt crystals, and water freezes into snowflakes, but salt crystals and snowflakes contain no information (other than that about how the molecules mechanically interact as they coalesce), and they certainly don’t form information-processing machinery.

Of course, there is always the possibility that there is a third option, besides design versus chance and necessity, but I’d like to hear it. In the meantime, logic, evidence, and mathematics weigh heavily on the side of design, as a proof by contradiction.

Comments
Hermagorus:
I have never seen anybody from from evolution to ID based on the evidence, but I have seen people move toward evolution because of the evidence.
Who and what was this alleged evidence? I have seen scientists switch from genetic accidents to ID. Dr Behe, Dr Wells, Dr Kenyon just to name a few.
I have seen people commit to ID because of other life changes, of course (a religious conversion, for example) — but that’s a different story.
Nonsense- ID doesn't have anything to do with religion so I doubt anyone would switch to ID because of religion.Joseph
March 16, 2009
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Joseph
That is NOT the claim! Evolution is NOT being debated.
You are correct. I'm so used to people bringing up evolution that I automatically fell into that mode of thinking. I apologize for misstating your position. That said, the basic logic is still the same.
Evidence against unguided processes is a point for guided processes.
I absolutely agree with this statement. Again, the confusion arises from the mistaken idea that "evidence against unguided processes" is the same as "lack of evidence for unguided processes". They are not equivalent. In the first case if there is evidence against one (an unguided process), the only alternative is it's complement (a guided process). In the second case, if there is no evidence either for or against one, there is at the very least one alternative to it's complement, and that is that evidence exists but has simply not been found yet. This is true for both ideas for which evidence is lacking, and so they are equivalently supported or refuted by the lack of evidence.KRiS_Censored
March 16, 2009
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mullerpr, my change in [29] is an observational inference. I have never seen anybody from from evolution to ID based on the evidence, but I have seen people move toward evolution because of the evidence. I have seen people commit to ID because of other life changes, of course (a religious conversion, for example) -- but that's a different story.David Kellogg
March 16, 2009
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KRiS, Thank you for confirming my simple observation... "you sound stupid". It is not an argument. It is an observation followed by an argument. Then you try so desperately to create new parameters for the argument, that you support my first observation even further... You have to restrain yourself! Here's my argument, preceding was just observations: If you read the post of this thread carefully, you will see that it is ALL about the evidence that has been gathered over the past how many years. It is pitiful that you wrongly place the "This discussion is about a lack of evidence" on anything other that Darwinian evolution, that is your fantasy you have to live with. Evidence usually refutes or supports an hypothesis and if your hypothesis invokes "chance and necessity" refuting that logically implies design as stated before. Your only why out of this dilemma is to dogmatically and sadly irrationally stick to naturalism. The essence of the argument at hand is that I asked you "how much evidence would be enough in the light of your method to make any conviction based on forensic science?" Blabbering, about your own illusions of "lack of evidence" has no bearing on this argument. I therefore conclude that you need to try again. What amount of evidence, based on your proposed method would be enough to conclude "foul play" in the example of forensic science? Then because I don't think you are stupid even though your sound stupid, I expect you to apply your "forensic science" insight to the "change & necessity" vs. design question at hand.mullerpr
March 16, 2009
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KRiS:
The claim is that a lack of evidence for evolution necessarily indicates positive evidence for ID.
That is NOT the claim! Evolution is NOT being debated. Evidence against unguided processes is a point for guided processes. And it appears that neither BL, Kellogg nor you understand that point nor do you understand the evidence. I will also note that not one of you can support the premise of an accumulation of genetic accidents.Joseph
March 16, 2009
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BL Harville:
Intelligent Design is pure fantasy, conjecture, and storytelling, with no empirical support, designed as a desperate attempt to support a conclusion that has already been reached, despite the evidence.
Ignorance exposed!~ The empirical support for ID is fouind in cellular functions such as transcription, proof-reading, error-correction, editing, and translation. What part of that strikes you as being cobbled together by an accumulation of genetic accidents? And BTW seeing there are only TWO possibilities- designed or not designed, then evidence against one is a point for the other. And people one of the main/ basic questions that science asks is: "How did it come to be this way?" And experience has taught us that it matters a great deal to an investigation whether or not that which is being investigated arose via agency involvement or by nature, operating freely. IOW the design inference does matter.Joseph
March 16, 2009
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mullerpr
You sound stupid...
Your logical prowess is undeniable. You have completely refuted all of my claims with that statement! Nevertheless, I feel I must battle on despite such a devastating defeat.
In forensic science, say you want to convict a murderer based on the evidence.
This assumes that we actually have evidence of some sort. This discussion is about a lack of evidence. The claim is that a lack of evidence for evolution necessarily indicates positive evidence for ID. I'm saying that a lack of evidence is not evidence for anything except the fact that there is no evidence. Allow me to rephrase your challenge so that it's actually relevant to the discussion: In forensic science, say you want to convict a murderer based on a lack of evidence. Now, since there is no evidence that he's innocent will you say that that constitutes evidence that he's guilty?
Name me one thing in all of the knowledge of man kind that has any value and is in fact in your words, NOT… an “Argument From Ignorance”.
Wow. Seriously? I'm gonna toss this over to the ID folks. Not every ID person can be so blinded by their need to "prove" ID that they can't see the glaring flaws with this kind of a challenge. I'll post an answer if it turns out that I was wrong about that. Please don't disappoint me, folks.KRiS_Censored
March 16, 2009
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David, Would you like to explain the method you used to come to that conclusion in #29? Is it called "Strike out the inconvenient truth"? Enjoy the fruits of your naturalist dogma while it lasts. We are all still waiting for the scientifically proven method of evolution through "chance and necessity" (...or is, somehow scaling "Mount Improbable" by the mysterious gradual slope that no one seems to find, still your best evidence?). But you also have to thank the great evolutionary biologist who tried so hard and have came up with such resounding evidence that, in fact, the design hypothesis has not been falsified. (in a true Popperian fashion) (Remember also to count all the successful convictions based on forensic science as evidence of design detection.)mullerpr
March 16, 2009
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Gil,
“Quantum Evolution” Intelligent design is pure fantasy, conjecture, and storytelling, with no empirical support, designed as a desperate attempt to support a conclusion that has already been reached, despite the evidence.
Fixed that for you.David Kellogg
March 16, 2009
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Further more KRiS, From #26: "“It’s true because you haven’t proven it to be false.” This is the Argument From Ignorance." Now let us put your skeptic method that you are ranting about to the test. What can be proven according to your method? Name me one thing in all of the knowledge of man kind that has any value and is in fact in your words, NOT... an "Argument From Ignorance". Name me one thing, that is not subject to your skeptical definition of ignorance. This challenge in all sincerity is designed just to help you see that you cannot even live according to your own scientific method.mullerpr
March 16, 2009
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KRiS, You sound stupid... Try to look at the argument and overcome that urge to let your feelings run wild. I will help you with an example. In forensic science, say you want to convict a murderer based on the evidence. When will you rule out pure chance and conclude foul play? Will you expect any scientist to go into your suggested perpetual search for more evidence to prove that it was pure chance? You are succumbing to the type of skepticism that Harry Collins, warns us about in the recently discussed "We cannot live by scepticism alone" (NATURE|Vol 458|5 March 2009) when he says that: "One can justify anything with scepticism." (H.Collins) You should thank the people of UD who take so much pain in helping to overcome your ignorance.mullerpr
March 16, 2009
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I think here would be a good place to re-post my original comment on what I call "negative predictions" such as "x will never be found". It was originally meant to rebut the claim that not finding x can be considered a confirmation of the prediction, where "x will never be found" is considered a prediction and therefore a test of a theory (e.g. "a natural mechanism for the generation of CSI will never be found" is considered a test of ID). I think it applies here in a more general way. I'm just cutting and pasting, though, so it may be a little strangely worded for the current context. Any statement in the form "You will never see X" can be more accurately stated as "Given the set of all possible Y, no Y will be found among them which is actually X." It should be pretty clear when restated in this way that to be in agreement with the statement, and therefore supportive of the hypothesis, all of Y must be searched without finding X. Any number of searches through anything less than all of Y results in either a falsification (X is found) or a necessary continuation of the search (X is not yet found). Not finding X means the search is incomplete and therefore inconclusive. (Not sure of that? Just ask yourself, if X hasn't been found yet, can you conclusively say that it will therefore never be found? If not, then it is by definition inconclusive) Now, since the test of the statement is thus far inconclusive (assuming X has not been found yet, of course), to claim that the statement is therefore supported is to say that an inconclusive result must be considered to be supportive of the statement. This means that any result that isn't a conclusive falsification must be interpreted to mean that the statement is true. In other words "It's true because you haven't proven it to be false." This is the Argument From Ignorance. Now you can attempt to justify using such an argument (maybe you can claim that inconclusive is still "conclusive enough", which appears to be the usual claim), but you can't legitimately claim that it's not an Argument From Ignorance at all, even if you do flip it around and call it a "test". Of course, one can limit the search space to make it more manageable by using a limited set of Y, rather than the set of all possible Y. However, this necessarily changes the original statement from "You will never see X" to "You will not see X if you search through this limited set of Y". There better be a very good reason for excluding those areas which are not to be searched. For instance, when you use the fact that X has not yet been found to try and support the original statement you are essentially creating a new statement which is a subset of the original that says "You will not see X if you search through the set of Y which has already been searched." Obviously this statement is supported by the data, but that's because it is a simple statement of fact. It's not a prediction, but a post-diction. I think you'll agree that limiting Y for the express purpose of making the statement true isn't a very good reason for limiting Y.KRiS_Censored
March 16, 2009
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vpr #22, Just to support your view. Here is a quote from the introduction to H. Yockey's book "Information theory, evolution, and the origin of life" "...George Gamow pointed out that the application of Shannon’s information theory breaks genetics and molecular biology out of the descriptive mode into the quantitative mode, and Dr. Yockey develops this theme, discussing how information theory and coding theory can be applied to molecular biology."mullerpr
March 16, 2009
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Let us suppose that we have 2 competing theories, A and B, which are mutually exclusive and exhaustive (meaning that one or the other is necessarily true, and that there are no other valid alternatives). Evidence that A is false can be construed as evidence that B is true. This is because being mutually exclusive and exhaustive, there is no alternative to A except for B if A is false. It sounds like I'm supporting the IDists, right? Not quite. The problem is the confusion of "evidence that A is false" and "a lack of evidence that A is true". A lack of evidence that A is true cannot be construed as evidence that B is true because in this case there are definite alternatives to A that do not require that B be true, the most obvious being that evidence for A simply has yet to be found. For instance, 100 years ago one could point to the fact that there is no evidence for any mechanism by which information could propagate down through populations and use that as evidence for some alternative theory like, say, ID. For many years, "evidence" for ID would "pile up" as no mechanism was found. Then when DNA was discovered, all of that evidence turned out to be no evidence at all, since there was in fact just such a mechanism. There is no reason to assume that a lack of evidence for one theory actually is evidence for another theory. Only evidence that directly contradicts a theory can be considered so, and only if they are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. One can try and argue that not finding evidence for A increases ones confidence that B is probably true, so that even if it isn't direct evidence for B, we can say that it's now more likely that B is true. However, by not finding evidence for A you simultaneously didn't find evidence for B and so our confidence in A is increased for exactly the same reason. "But we weren't looking for evidence for B." That may be true, but then why have any more confidence in B if you're not even looking for any independent evidence to support it? And if you are looking for and finding independent evidence for B, why rely on that lack of evidence for A in the first place?KRiS_Censored
March 16, 2009
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Hi vjtorley, I did get your point, and I am still convinced that modeling the pathways will not resolve the issue for the simple reason that you allow Darwinists to lighten the burden they have selected for themselves by resorting to "chance and necessity". If they want to be considered as responsible scientists they have to weigh in on their claims. That include weighing in on the possible contradiction in terms when you use the concepts "chance and necessity". If necessity exceeds the limits of the pure random system, like necessitating one of six sides of a dice per event, then you can apply necessity to mean anything you would want it to mean, like the initial conditions on earth (which is also statistically impossible when you logically reject the multi-verse or any infinite regress of causality) or then you claim a literally infinite number of pathways, that cannot be computed regardless of your computing power. You have to bound their fantasy to the finite number of physical events that took place since the Big Bang, including physical constants as random events. Darwinists need to face up to the fact that given the necessary initial conditions there is no way that chance could achieve anything close to any form of life within the total number of known events that took place since the Big Bang.mullerpr
March 16, 2009
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"This isn’t mathematics, this is biology. Proof by contradiction doesn’t apply here" No, it's engineering! I think the time has come for biologist to concede that they are not engineers. Why is it that so many helpful heuristics "just" don't apply to biology.vpr
March 16, 2009
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GilDodgen, "Arguments from incredulity are perfectly justified when a thesis is preposterous..." I couldn't agree more. The argument from incredulity is a perfectly valid argument in certain circumstances. This is one. I'm personally tired of people reading from Coach Dawkins' playbook and running this same play.Clive Hayden
March 16, 2009
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mullerpr: I'm not sure if we understand each other. The reason why I did not ask about a computer that could simulate all the different values of physical constants is that atheists could easily retort that we already have one: the multiverse. Personally I think the idea of a multiverse is philosophically unsatisfactory, for reasons discussed by Robin Collins at http://home.messiah.edu/~rcollins/ft.htm . What I wanted to focus on was the narrower question: given the constants we have now, and given the conditions on the early Earth, can we show in a mathematically rigorous way that there is no gradulaistic pathway from a swirl of amino acids to proto-RNA to DNA to a bacterial cell? To do that, we would need to run through every single possible pathway: I can't see any other knockdown way to do it. What I wanted to know is: how many mathematical operations would be involved for this calculation? I'd also like to suggest that instead of pitting the concepts of chance and design (which are NOT mutually exclusive) against each other, we would do better to speak of directed vs. undirected processes. That DOES cover everything. Finally, I'd like to return to the original point made in the paper I cited above, in #13: anything that can code better than I can must be intelligent. That's a pretty safe bet. If nature can create DNA, and subsequent investigation reveals that the coding in DNA is more efficient than anything our best scientists can create, then nature must have been guided by some Intelligence.vjtorley
March 16, 2009
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@6:
What we do have is essentially an argument from incredulity. What we don’t have is a clear proof by contradiction since it depends on there being two mutually-exclusive alternatives but, by acknowledging common descent and microevolution, Design proponents have undermined any such possibility.
That's a nice conclusion, but incorrect. Let me help. There are two-mutually exclusive alternatives: macroevolution by the same forces (chance/time) as microevolution or macroevolution needing design. Remember that ID's main 'beef' with darwinism is its claim that new species can be produced from chance/time. Common descent does not contribute to this. Remember, way up above, that the original post is framing this argument in terms of: "design exists vs no design {everything materialistic}". Notice how it doesn't say "ONLY design (no material-random processes) vs no design". Does this illustrate? (using an old example)-> 1) Look at mt. Rushmore. 2) Materialism says that it was made purely from erosion. 3) "Design Exists" acknowledges that erosion can wear away at rock (microevolution), but states that this is insufficient to create mt. Rushmore and other stone works (macroevolution) e.t.c. Some part must have been designed. "Design exists" is not arrayed against materialistic processes - it is aligned against materialistic processes creating everything . I hope you understand now. === @ the charge of "argument from incredulity", what's wrong with it? It is not a proof in itself, but a prompt from human rationality that we should examine other options.Avonwatches
March 16, 2009
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vjtorley in #13, You are dead wrong if you think the stalemate can be solved by a computer with such advanced computing power, to model the earth. What you need is a simple random generator ranting through at least 10^250 iterations of energy states as it relate to the fundamental equations where all the known physical constants are variable according to pure chance. That model should at least come up with some gene sequences that can code for life. (The wonderful thing is that biological life can now be modeled as a mathematical entity, thanks to information theory. See Shannon and Yockey) The computer your need for this is certainly not that complicated and if it succeed then you have your evidence that life came from chance processes otherwise you have to assume design. Now it is up to you CHANCE guys to find a new and novel way to load the dice, or keep on ranting that pure chance is an unfair disadvantage... Sorry guys that is what pure chance is.mullerpr
March 16, 2009
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For those who propose that there are more than two options when it comes to chance and necessity. I like to ask how many concepts are available if you consistently manage to proof that "CHANCE" processes just has no success? The fact remains that all the proposed alternatives can be exposed for its logical "USE OF DESIGN". Call it front loading, "importing a loaded dice", what ever you like. It boils down to one thing... DESIGN is the only alternative to CHANCE. Live with it or continue to make yourselves sound like irrational beings, ranting about with no comprehension of the obvious. You are now welcome to revert to your irrational belief that when it comes to the origin of life CHANCE cannot be falsified. That is what you imply with so much proud smug on your faces that you are unaware of the foaming madness still on your faces after this ranting about alternatives to CHANCE processes.mullerpr
March 15, 2009
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Upright BiPed,
Apparently, Madsen will only be moved by a level of evidence that he can’t even provide for his own beliefs. Meanwhile he ignores the data from “meticulous studies” by “trained researchers” working in their field of expertise. What then provides him with the certainty of is beliefs? He is seemingly hesitant to say.
Which beliefs are you referring to? I'm not taking any particular position on ID here. I'm just asking whether or not jerry's logic is fair. It seems to be rigged in favor of the ID position.madsen
March 15, 2009
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Apparently, Madsen will only be moved by a level of evidence that he can't even provide for his own beliefs. Meanwhile he ignores the data from "meticulous studies" by "trained researchers" working in their field of expertise. What then provides him with the certainty of is beliefs? He is seemingly hesitant to say. On the other hand, Harville wants to proceed by proclamation: "Intelligent Design is pure fantasy, conjecture, and storytelling, with no empirical support, designed as a desperate attempt to support a conclusion that has already been reached, despite the evidence." While ignoring the same evidence as Madsen, he describes the position that materialism is in, but throws it back and hope it sticks to ID instead. His whole post is devoid of the history between the two positions. Materialism became the default explanation long before the advent of molecular biology - and it hasn't been able to explain things since. Imagine, mankind finally looks inside the cells that make up his body, and desperately acts as if he knew it all along. What we found says otherwise. Quit ignoring the evidence.Upright BiPed
March 15, 2009
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Mr. Harville- I would put the notion of "quantum evolution" on a par with Douglas Adam's assertion that the universe was sneezed out of the nose of the "Great Green Arkleseizure". There is an equal amount of evidence to support both theories being true. Give me a break! If you want to make a claim that Life arose as the result of an unguided naturalistic process, hadnt you better come up with a better explanation of how it all got started than wild speculation of this sort? Tell me how abiogenesis happened without design. Show me how it happened. Explain it to me. If you cant' then naturalistic explanations for life have no basis whatsoever for deserving anything from me but skepticism. Science is supposed to be about seeing what you see, not what you want to see. You cant just start with a pre-determined ideology-based dogma and then try and explain it with a bunch of crazy, unsubstantiated hooey like "quantum evolution"! It reminds me of that part of the movie "expelled" where ben Stein is laughing about those crazy "joyriding crystals" ( some darwinist true-believer was trying to explain to him that crystals were a plausible explanation for abiogenesis.) So what else have you got for me? How about the flying spaghetti monster? I like that one myself.tyharris
March 15, 2009
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Forgive me for posting on this thread - but in my google search it lead me to this site. I looked but can't find a way to contact the admin here. A guy who goes by the name of TheJaredJammer on YouTube had his account suspended when I was watching a series of videos called .... Ken Miller on Intelligent Design REFUTED (1/9) It seems to be the reason for his suspension because when I tried to find the duplicate videos on YouTube with the same title, those accounts had that video removed as well all at the same time. It looked like a great video, but I don't know who the speaker was in it in order to find it anywhere else. Was it posted by this site? A google search for TheJaredJammer listed the link back here. Anyway forgive me again for an off-topic post. But I really would like to know if anyone knows more about that video or where I could find it.Animateclay
March 15, 2009
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OK, I've got a question for the mathematicians here. How much raw, number-crunching power (i.e. how many flops, Teraflops or whatever) would it take for a computer to simulate a realistic model of the Earth's environment 4 billion years ago, and then run through all possible pathways to the first RNA molecule / DNA molecule / bacterial cell, starting from a set of amino acids, in order to ascertain whether there is a gradualistic Darwinian pathway or not? Until we can construct such a model, neo-Darwinians and ID proponents are probably wasting time arguing at each other. I have another question for neo-Darwinians. What is their response to this paper at http://creation.com/images/pdfs/tj/j21_3/j21_3_111-117.pdf ? I'm not a biologist, but the three key points I took away were that: (i) the coding on the DNA molecule is incredibly sophisticated - "No human engineer has ever even imagined, let alone designed an information storage device anything like it"; (ii) it's so complex that even our best scientific brains can't understand it yet - "These results present us with a spectacle never before encountered in science — an information structure so complex that it defies description"; and (iii) "Moreover, the vast majority of its content is metainformation — information about how to use information. Meta-information cannot arise by chance because it only makes sense in context of the information it relates to." Any comments?vjtorley
March 15, 2009
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GilDodgen:
“Quantum Evolution” is pure fantasy, conjecture, and storytelling, with no empirical support, designed as a desperate attempt to support a conclusion that has already been reached, despite the evidence.
Intelligent Design is pure fantasy, conjecture, and storytelling, with no empirical support, designed as a desperate attempt to support a conclusion that has already been reached, despite the evidence.B L Harville
March 15, 2009
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jerry,
madsen, Anyone’s opinion would not matter for much nor a half assed study by a novice. But a meticulous study by a trained researcher may be admissible depending on the content. There are plenty of those.
Can you give me a reference to a meticulous study by a trained researcher which explains how flagella (or some other structures) were designed?madsen
March 15, 2009
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What we do have is essentially an argument from incredulity. Arguments from incredulity are perfectly justified when a thesis is preposterous, based on century-and-a-half-old ignorance, and propped up with endless excuses in an attempt to deny a steadily growing mountain of contrary evidence. Such an attempt was made to defend the steady-state universe, until it died of natural causes. This will eventually be the fate of chance-and-necessity Darwinism.GilDodgen
March 15, 2009
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madsen, Anyone's opinion would not matter for much nor a half assed study by a novice. But a meticulous study by a trained researcher may be admissible depending on the content. There are plenty of those. Seversky, you have to read some more about the debate. You are talking nonsense. You are just spouting irrelevant words. Maybe because you heard them some place else. I suggest you read "Disparity, adaptation, exaptation, bookkeeping, and contingency at the genome level Jürgen Brosius1 1 Jürgen Brosius. Institute of Experimental Pathology, ZMBE, University of Münster, Von-Esmarch-Strasse 56, Münster, Germany. RNA.world@uni-muenster.de The application of molecular genetics, in particular comparative genomics, to the field of evolutionary biology is paving the way to an enhanced "New Synthesis." Apart from their power to establish and refine phylogenies, understanding such genomic processes as the dynamics of change in genomes, even in hypothetical RNA-based genomes and the in vitro evolution of RNA molecules, helps to clarify evolutionary principles that are otherwise hidden among the nested hierarchies of evolutionary units. To this end, I outline the course of hereditary material and examine several issues including disparity, causation, or bookkeeping of genes, adaptation, and exaptation, as well as evolutionary contingency at the genomic level—issues at the heart of some of Stephen Jay Gould's intellectual battlegrounds. Interestingly, where relevant, the genomic perspective is consistent with Gould's agenda. Extensive documentation makes it particularly clear that exaptation plays a role in evolutionary processes that is at least as significant as—and perhaps more significant than—that played by adaptation." and then we can discuss the implications for or against ID.jerry
March 15, 2009
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