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Insane or Simply Wrong?

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David W. Gibson asks some interesting questions in a comment to johnnyb’s last post.  First, he writes concerning Darwinism:  “How could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after decades of detailed study, could STILL fall victim to the ‘transparently ludicrous’?”

Let me answer this question by referring to a couple of similar examples from hisotry.

In the second century Ptolemy devised his system of cosmology.  In this system each planet moves along a “deferent” and an “epicycle.”  The planet’s movement along these two paths cause it to move closer to and further away from the earth.  For the system to work, the planets sometimes had to slow down, stop, and even move backwards.

Tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world ascribed to Ptolemy’s cosmology from the publication of Almagest around 150 until well after the publication of De revolutionibus orbium coelestium in 1543.

But this system of deferents and epicycles is “transparently ludicrous” you say.  And so it is in retrospect.  Nevertheless it reigned nearly unchallenged for well over 1,000 years.

Here’s another example.  Humorism.  “This theory holds that the human body was filled with four basic substances, called humors, which are in balance when a person is healthy, and all diseases and disabilities result from an excess or deficit of one of these four humors. These deficits could be caused by vapors that were inhaled or absorbed by the body. The four humors were black bile, yellow bile, phlegm, and blood.”  Wikipedia.

Humorism was the prevailing medical orthodoxy from the time of Galen (circa 150 AD).  It was not definitively displaced until 1858 when Rudolf Virchow published his work on cellular pathology.

Your phrase “transparently ludicrous” comes readily to mind when we think about humorism now.  Yet it was the prevailing orthodoxy among tens of thousands of brilliant medical practitioners for nearly 2,000 years.

Now suppose one of Copernicus’ critics (and he had many; his theory was not accepted immediately) had said, “Hey Copernicus, how could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after 1,393 years of detailed study, could still fall victim to  a theory of cosmology that, if you are correct, is transparently ludicrous?”

Or suppose one of Virchow’s critics had said, “Hey wait a minute!  How could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after nearly 2,000 years of detailed study, could still fall victim to a theory of medicine that, if you are correct, is transparently ludicrous?”

I will put it to you David.  How should Copernicus or Virchow have answered those questions?

Finally you write:  “Centuries of scientific progress can only be explained by mass insanity. Does that work for you?”

First, I don’t know where you get “centuries.”  Origin was published in 1859.  That’s 153 years ago by my count.  Darwin has over 1,000 years to go before he reaches the same status as Ptolemy or Galen based on mere “age of the theory.”

Second, “mass insanity” is a nice strawman.  No one has suggested that someone who believes in Darwinism is insane.  They are simply wrong.

Were all cosmologists from Ptolemy to Copernicus insane?  No, they were simply wrong.

Were all doctors from Galen to Virchow insane?  No, they were simply wrong.

The essence of your argument for Darwinism is:  “All the smart people believe it; it must be true.”  I hope you understand now that that argument is not as airtight as you seem to think it is.

Comments
Collin, I don't know the Feynman reference but he was a very smart man and I'd tend to give his opinions some benefit of the doubt . . . for a while at least!! But inanimate things can't really compare to living things. KF, What do you want me to say? I have looked at the arguments from both sides and I find those on one side more credible and parsimonious. I'm not trying to start a fuss. I don't think I have to show that life is not possibly the product of design. It is possibly the product of design. Many things are possible. But as there is no current, verifiable evidence of a designer capable of the designs postulated, now or way back when, then I prefer to fall back upon natural forces clearly now in effect. I find that natural processes defined by the laws of physics and chemistry to be more parsimonious than an undefined, unilluminated and unseen designer. I accept that others may feel differently and I'm not interested in attacking faith. And I'm not trying to convert anyone. I agree that intelligent agents are sources of design but there has to be an agent and so far, except for the disputed object in question, there is no evidence of an agent. In my view. But it is really just down to what I see to be the most likely. And we can disagree on that. It's okay.Jerad
May 30, 2012
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PPS: In short, so long as a designer is possible -- physically or logically etc [as opposed to plausible to adherents of a given view or school of thought] -- it is question-begging to a priori rule out the possibility, especially in the face of signs that on consistent empirical investigation do point reliably to design as causal process. In short, arsonist is possible, so we do not rule out arson as possible process a priori. Unless you can show that life is not possibly the product of design -- hopeless at the moment given Venter et al -- then to a priori rule out art, or intelligently directed contingency as the process by which life [life that is chock full of FSCI, including codes, algorithms and implementing machinery, e.g. that for making proteins] originated, is question-begging. The same extends to the origin of the cosmos, in light of fine tuning. KFkairosfocus
May 30, 2012
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PS: J, we routinely infer to states of affairs we have no independent access to than traces in the present and comparison with processes we observe in the present. Indeed, the reconstruction of the deep past is just such an exercise in inference, and it is not just to the sun being a second generation star, or to the existence of prior stars that cooked up the elements of the periodic table, starting with initial H and He, it is the whole shebang, through planetary system origin, origin of earth, origin of life, origin of body plans, our own origin, all of it is indirect reconstruction of an unobservable past on signs in the present and their inferred best explanation. What design theorists object to, is that this requires inference to best explanation across ALL significant alternatives, so a priori ruling out design in the face of signs that on empirical test reliably point to design, are pointing to question-begging, not sound reasoning. KFkairosfocus
May 30, 2012
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J: Pardon, my having to be short and direct. "I disagree" does not address the pivotal issue: empirical warrant. So far, all you are in effect saying is that you do not agree with the balance of the evidence. And as to what a body plan level of change involves, think Cambrian life revo, or the origin of the special skeleton, wings and lungs of birds. or even what would be required to give a hypothetical human ancestor ape the physical apparatus and control systems required for speech. Playing around with proteins to make them eat say nylon, is so far from what is needed that this just underscores the gap that is unanswered. Remember, in every case, such systems have to at every stage be viable from embryo on up to reproduction. And incrementally would have to move from zero function to full function. The only sound answer to such is empirical evidence, if you disbelieve the evidence of the functional isolation of configs and the implications of the scope of the space of possible configs. You have to first get us to a shore of function, from initial non-existent function, then you may do hill climbing to specialist niches all you want. But first, taking the bird, we need the skeleton, the wings and the lungs, where the lungs are critical to the point of potential death in minutes. KFkairosfocus
May 30, 2012
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Jerad, Thank you for that. It's actually hard to respect someone with a different view. I don't know why. I respect myself, yet I know that I have been proven wrong lots of times. So why can't I respect others who have different views, even if they are wrong (or worse, even if they are right and I am wrong! :)) I would like to give an analogy to the inference of design without independent evidence of a designer (apart from miracles and the bible (or other scripture) if you accept such as evidence). I just heard a lecture by Richard Feynman about certain properties of all matter on the earth. If I understood him correctly, he said that based on the number of ions associated with certain elements, we can infer some things about the stars that supernovaed and created the elements that constitute our earth. I'm a little bit fuzzy on exactly what he was talking about, but it seemed to me that in this instance, physicists are able to learn something about stars that they do not have independent evidence ever existed.Collin
May 30, 2012
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Eugene, I think I have a pretty idea of what the ID paradigm is and I thank you for your patience and time. I hope I have been polite and responsive in this forum. I don't think we have to agree to respect each other. It is very clear to me that the people I have met here are thoughtful and serious and knowledgeable. And I'm glad for the opportunity to poke my nose around a bit. I still like to dream about a time when everyone cooperates in research 'cause we're all wanting to answer the same questions!! Again, I hope no one takes my disagreement as a value judgement. I guess that's hard to do . . . I just want everyone to know that I respect them which is why I am here asking questions.Jerad
May 30, 2012
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KF, I know your arguments, I just disagree with them. I'm not here to defend evolutionary theory particularly but to find out more what people in the ID community are thinking. Just like inferring arson implies an arsonist Inferring design implies a designer. The existence of which I have seen no independent physical evidence of. And I think there are other credible explanations. So I choose a different paradigm. This makes no sense to you but it doesn't have to. I'm not part of the 'establishment', my opinion means nothing so don't let it bother you. I just thought I should do my best to understand what ID proponents are saying and thinking. And I think it's rude not to answer questions but really y'all know what I'm gonna say!! Joe, Maybe I am fooling myself. It probably won't be the last time if I am! I hear what you're saying and look forward to seeing evidence for the programming you mention.Jerad
May 30, 2012
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Jerad, After a number of very informative comments by my colleagues, I hardly have anything else to say. True creativity is not with chance and/or law-like necessity but with choice contingency, i.e. with the choice of rules. Nature does not generate rules. Intelligence does. Surprisingly, rule-like behaviour is characteristic of biosystems. And this is what they have in common with artificial information processing systems. I guess we could then agree at least that life is unique in this respect. Yes, chemistry is there, but there is a lot more to it than that. The cybernetic aspects of living systems are dealt with in detail in David Abel's "The first gene".Eugene S
May 30, 2012
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Jerad:
Well, I’d say that the varieties of brassicas are close to showing that in the last 1000 years or so.
I'd say that you are fooling yourself but perhaps you could reference the new and useful functional multi-protein configurations that arose in the brassicas via accumulations of genetic accidents. Good luck with that. And again ID only argues against accumulations of random genetic changes being the driver of evolutionary change. Genetic change directed by internal genetic programming and/ or built-in responses to environmental cues that lead to evolutionary change, is OK by ID. ID also accepts that random genetic changes do occur but they tend to break, not make...Joe
May 30, 2012
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J Busy just now looking at XERTE and Moodle. Do you notice "I find it . . . " i.e. you are simply asserting an opinion. I repeat, the opinion needs to be tested against warrant, and it simply is not so that chance processes can credibly generate FSCO/I. within the resources of our cosmos. if you doubt this, simply produce a case in point, wheter at the easy level of text generation, or the harder one of novel body plans originating in our observation by chanc e variation and differential reproductive success. A method that is empirically inadequate and analytically dubious cannot be "more parsimonious," it is instead simply futile and incapable. Moreover, one is not inferring a designer, much less an identified designer. One is inferring from empirically tested and reliable signs to design as causal process per Newton's uniformity principle on inference to best explanation. That is a significant difference. Who or what candidate designers may be is a second order question, just as we first infer arson before looking for an arsonist. So long as a designer is possible, then we have to be open to the possibility. In that context, having empirically reliable and tested signs of design, is an extremely good indicator of the possibility of a designer to produce an observed, credibly designed object. In short, your "parsimony" objection fails the first tests for inferring a best explanation: it must be factually and in this case causally adequate. Then, we can go look at coherence and explanatory elegance issues. In effect, you are trying to suggest that a credibly empirically inadequate mechanism is more elegant: simpler. It cannot be more elegant, if there is reason to seriously doubt that it can do the job on the available resources, ~10^17 s and 10^80 atoms or so in our observed cosmos. That is where the 1,000 bit threshold comes from: the space to be searched for configs would be about 10^150 times the number of states of the 10^80 atoms of our observed cosmos since its origin -- actually across its lifespan of about 50 mn times the timeline since the proposed big band event at 13.7 BYA. If you insist on a causally, empirically inadequate mechanism, that is because of a controlling a priori, as already pointed out. Probably, methodological naturalism that is a disguised form of a priori materialism (though latterly there are those who are trying to accommodate to this, and suggest an invisible undetectable controller behind the scenes). In effect, this is a radical, historically and philosophically unwarranted redefinition in captivity to an ideology, materialism. Regardless of who are now trumpeting this: US NAS, NSTA, etc etc, that just is not warranted. No authority is better than his or her facts, reasoning and underlying assumptions. And, GIGO still holds. This is not a matter for worldview preferences or one's favoured "simple" model, this is a case where we must be led by the evidence, in this case the large and uni-vocal body of evidence on where FSCO/I comes from. Design. KFkairosfocus
May 30, 2012
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Joe,
And Jerad- no one has demonstrated that random genetic changes can accumulate in such a way as to give rise to new and useful functional multi-protein configurations. So no, it has not been done.
Well, I'd say that the varieties of brassicas are close to showing that in the last 1000 years or so. And, in the absence of independent physical evidence for other processes being in effect, that the genetic record encapsulated in the DNA of all living creatures and plants upholds that having happened. But you knew I was going to say that. We're starting to go in circles!!
BTW ID is still not anti-evolution...
Perhaps not but it is attempting to refute some of the basic tenets of the theory!!Jerad
May 30, 2012
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Jerad:
I just find it less parsimonious to infer a designer when there is no other evidence of one being around at the time than to bank on naturalistic processes now seen to be in existence.
One design is more parsimonious than multiple just-so random genetic changes, the design is evidence for the designer and naturalistic processes only exist in nature and therefor cannot account for its origin, which science says it had. And Jerad- no one has demonstrated that random genetic changes can accumulate in such a way as to give rise to new and useful functional multi-protein configurations. So no, it has not been done. BTW ID is still not anti-evolution...Joe
May 30, 2012
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KF,
There is just one well justified, empirically credible cause of such FSCI. So, on Newton’s uniformity principle we are entitled to infer like causes like and hold that FSCI is a reliable sign of design. (If you dispute this inference, simply provide an empirically observed counter-example.)
I just find it less parsimonious to infer a designer when there is no other evidence of one being around at the time than to bank on naturalistic processes now seen to be in existence. We're just going to have to disagree on that. Which is fine with me. I'm not trying to convert anyone or be converted. I'm just trying to understand by asking questions and bringing up issues. And hopefully not being too rude in the process.
If you want to posit a continent of incrementally accessible function from microbes to man, you have to empirically warrant it.
And I would say that has been done. I accept its not been done to your satisfaction but it has to mine. It's not that I don't accept that design could be done and implemented, I'd just like some more evidence that it happened. But that's just me. I'm not against the idea, I just find it hard to accept without more verification. Like I've said before we have different parsimonies. It happens. Thanks for taking the time to respond, I do appreciate it. And I am reading them all. In my heart of hearts I still find the evolutionary paradigm more compelling. Oh well! :-) Please don't respond if I'm annoying you or frustrating you.Jerad
May 30, 2012
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The origin of life cannot be separated from evolution because how life originated is directly linked to how it evolved. That means if living organisms were designed then the inference would be they were designed to evolve/ evolved by design. The ONLY reason to infer evolution proceeds via accumulations of random genetic changes is if random changes produced living organisms from inanimate matter and energy.Joe
May 30, 2012
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J: OOL is only "a separate topic" because the problem of getting to a functional configuration is even more blatant and unanswered there. That is, there is no root for the darwinian tree of life. The assumed replicator begs the fundamental question, the origin of life based on FSCI. There is just one well justified, empirically credible cause of such FSCI. So, on Newton's uniformity principle we are entitled to infer like causes like and hold that FSCI is a reliable sign of design. (If you dispute this inference, simply provide an empirically observed counter-example.) That gives us reason to infer that first life was designed. By who or what we know not, but it is reasonable that a lab several generations beyond Venter could do it. This transforms our view of the origin of body plans -- which require even more info than first life. Thus, also, our view of the modelled history of life. That is, whether or not one is inclined to accept universal common descent, we have abundant signs from the functionally specific, complex organisation and associated implicit or explicit information [FSCO/I] that life and its body plans were designed. Your refusal to address the commonplace of engineering and computing experience that such FSCO/I locks one down to narrow zones of function in wide [conceptual -- cut down phase spaces here] spaces of possible configs in a world where Planck-time quantum state resources put up serious barriers to what chance based unintelligent searches can do is a begging of the question. If you want to posit a continent of incrementally accessible function from microbes to man, you have to empirically warrant it. Remember, you have to generate embryologically feasible, self-assembling body plans, with the coded DNA info, by the millions and millions of bits, dozens and dozens of times over. 500 -1,000 bits exhausts the PTQS resources of our solar system or the observed cosmos, for chance-based random walk driven blind trial and error searches. But then, from even the terms you have used, you have been programmed to think all of this is a no-problem thing. All neatly solved, voila, it emerged, it must have happened that way, science must only explain by "natural causes," etc. You have been dealing with two physicists, familiar with the informational implications of the statistical perspective on thermodynamics (which is a tad older than Darwin's speculations, and has the advantage of powerful analytical and empirical support, never mind the occasional remarks on drunks searching at lamp-posts in the dark). That is why we are so insistent that the issue of FSCO/I and its empirically warranted origin, must be taken seriously. In particular, notice from DNA: coded digital info, algorithms, and execution machinery, implemented in molecular nanotech, are ANTECEDENT to cell based life. Those are strong pointers to design indeed, never mind how it makes the materialist establishment duly dressed in the holy lab coat uncomfortable. Of course, this says nothing about the relevant designers being within or beyond the cosmos. For that, we need to look at the observed -- the only observed -- cosmos. It turns out that to get to a cosmos in which C-Chemistry, Aqueous medium, protein based life is implemented, the physics has to be astonishingly finely tun4ed, in multiple ways, dozens of ways. The laws, the parameters, the brute quantities. Let's just highlight that H, He, C, O and N are in the top list of abundance, and get us to: stars, the elements, organic chemistry, water, and proteins. That's the top four elements and N, which is if not the 5th, is near that level. Water itself is so delicately balanced, and complex based on a "simple" design, that it is a paradigm example of a smart brick. So, the cosmos and its physics point to an intelligent, brilliant, sophisticated and enormously powerful designer. What is more the observed cosmos credibly had a beginning and is credibly contingent. That points to, at root -- even through multiverse speculations -- to a necessary being as the foundation of the world we inhabit, a being that always was there. (Until the big bang came along with supportive evidence, and upset the applecart, the "standard" resort was that he observed cosmos was the necessary being antecedent to the contingent ones in it. Not credible anymore.) That points to a cosmos set up for life as we see it. Life that is based on evidently designed info systems that implement a kinematic von Neumann self replicator. Life that exhibits dozens of body plans that cry out for further design. So, a design-centred view of the science of the world, absent a priori imposition by the new materialist magisterium, is a reasonable one. The magisterium has no sound answer tot he issues just outlined, and is resorting to typical ideological tactics instead. That tells me the problem is not the weight of the evidence, but the existence of such a dominant and ruthless faction. Game over, we are not playing by the magisterium's loaded rules anymore. Science is supposed to be about a responsible pursuit of the truth about our world in light of empirically based investigations and analyses. A priori, question-begging and censoring impositions such as the magisterium would impose as they demand genuflection to the holy lab coat disqualify themselves. Game over. KFkairosfocus
May 30, 2012
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KF, You don't have to go back over all the points. I will spend some time reading the thread. But, about your point 1 . . . I think I agree that it's about variation within an area of functionality but that is one of the assumptions about evolutionary theory, you start with a basic replicator. Again, OOL is a different topic really. I guess I'd call it a landform of functionality. Islands implies no way to get from one to the other which is anti-thetical to evolutionary theory. Landform/continent of functionality. All lifeforms that existed long enough to pass on their genes were functional so common descent implies a continuum of functionality. I guess you address that in your point 3 and I would disagree with you about the evidence. And so it goes eh? :-) I don't think the million monkey metaphor is pertinent. Start with a functional life form, vary its 'recipe', generate some variation in the offspring, some survive, some don't, some outcompete their 'siblings' and 'cousins' and propagate more, repeat. You're not starting from nothing with random sequences hoping to hit on one that is viable. Start with one that works and tweak it. And yes, that doesn't explain how the first functional life form arose, I agree. I will read the thread, just thought I'd pass on some quick impressions.Jerad
May 30, 2012
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J: I don't really have time to go back over circles that were run over and over again, in 2010 - 11. Quick notes: 1 --> Your you don't have to search the whole space boils down to discussing variation WITHIN an island of function. The issue raised by design theory is to arrive AT such islands without intelligent direction. To extrapolate from one to the other is q-begging. 2 --> The thermo-d comparison is to contrast what is well supported with what is not. FSCI is known and only known as coming from design, as posts in this thread illustrate at first level. If you wish to propose another mech as adequate, demonstrate it -- after 150 years, still nothing at required level. (This is why there is the educational lock-up and the explosive reaction to the suggestion to teach strengths and weaknesses of origins science models.) 3 --> The implied assumption of a continent of smoothly, incrementally varying function from microbes to man, again, lacks warrant. Recall, a core premise of scientific explanation is empirical warrant. Still missing in action after 150 years. 4 --> What is well warranted is that complexity, specific, co-ordinated organisation to achieve function, and resulting multipart systems require highly constrained arrangements to work. That is, we see islands of function emerging. The known adequate mechanism for reaching such is design. The million monkey challenge cripples the alternative. 5 --> I know, this seems a strange way to look, and cuts across what you always heard. Yup, exactly. Just what is the observational warrant for the claim that CV + NS --> New body plans (think, avian wings and flow-through lungs as an example)? ANS, after 150 yrs: NIL. 6 --> If an idea rests on an imposed a priori for its support, rather than direct empirical support, it is phil not sci. 7 --> In this context, Design theory is the study of empirical signs pointing to design as cause. It is empirically well supported and in routine use in many scientific fields. The only controversial one is origins, where we exactly did not and cannot observe the actual deep past. What is propping up materialist narratives is a priori materialism, often disguised as allegedly reasonable methodological limits. KF 3 -->kairosfocus
May 30, 2012
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KF,
If you would dismiss this, my answer is the same as for perpetuum mobiles vs thermodynamics laws — show us.
I'm sure people are working on that and 'til then I still find the evolutionary model to be more parsimonious to the ID hypothesis. I have thought about this a lot and I'm quite sure we are not going to change each other's minds!
As for worked out cases, you may find the discussion here and onward useful, using a simplification that shows how the CSI metric can go to work in the real world.
I will have a look. So, has it actually been applied to some real world examples and shown to have a low rate of false positives?
But where we are talking functionally specific and complex info, the scope of possible configs is so large that it swamps available resources. So, the challenge is to find by random search, deeply isolated islands of function in vast seas of non-function, without intelligence. Back to the million monkey problem.
Except you don't have to search the entire space. Variation is created by random mutations. IF the variation is superior in some way, not optimal, then generally it reproduces more and that slightly better genome becomes more common. Climbing Mt Improbable in tiny steps. And I hope our genome is better than Windows 7!! :-) More robust and tolerant of errors at the very least. Eric, I see your point and I used selection considering our discussion. I don't think of natural selection as being a force. It's not conscious. It is what you're talking about so I didn't think I was backtracking. Substitute environmental pressures when I use the term if you like. And I don't mean it removes the randomness which is generated every generation by mutations. Natural selection is the racecourse that the genetic variations have to run and some don't finish the race. Sometimes the racecourse is a marathon, sometimes it's cross-country, sometimes it's a sprint. Different courses all over the planet. And the lifeforms that are faster or tougher or more agile become more common but have to 'compete' with their offspring who have more variation. Again, I was not trying to be sneaking and introduce a 'guiding' force. Natural selection doesn't remove the randomness which is generated at a different level. It is what we agreed: a summation of environmental pressures/conditions which some lifeforms are better adapted to because of their random variation from the norm. Natural selection is not random because the environment is not random. It does change, especially the weather and climate. And sometimes an asteroid screws everything up! There are floods and famines and ice ages. But each semi-stable collection of environmental pressures whittle away the variation that is less suited to that set of conditions. There is no target or purpose. Just heartless culling and death. Anyway, I hope that clears up my usage. Like I said, for me it just means environmental conditions and pressures.Jerad
May 29, 2012
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Incidentally, Jerad, I should point out that we've just seen a live example of what I was describing on the other thread. I'm not trying to rub it in and you've been such a good sport about this whole discussion, so please don't take this the wrong way. However, it is worth pointing out that even after the discussion we had and even after you said you try to keep in mind that selection is just a shorthand label for the underlying processes, you still fell back to citing selection as a causative force. (Specifically, in this case you proposed that selection somehow takes a process that would otherwise be random and causes it to be non-random.) Not trying to nitpick, but I just thought this would be a good example to highlight, given our recent discussion. The thought of selection being some kind of guiding or causative force is an extremely seductive idea. So much so that very smart people who know better -- people who, when asked to carefully state what they mean, acknowledge that selection is not an actual causative force -- are often seduced into referring to selection as an explanation for things biological. Anytime we are tempted to refer to selection as an answer for this or that question, we need to stop and ask ourselves what we really mean and not fall into the trap of thinking that selection provides an explanation of the scientific question under consideration.Eric Anderson
May 29, 2012
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Jerad wrote:
Remember too . . . it’s not just randomness!! Mutations are random. Selection is not.
Jerad, we've been discussing this in some detail on the other thread. Selection is not a force. It doesn't do anything. It is just a label applied to the statistical result of differential survival. What caused the differential survival? A host of possible things, most of which we have no idea about in particular circumstances. A population could be driven to get bigger, get smaller; get faster, get slower; get better vision, lose its vision; live in the cold, live in the heat; reproduce faster, reproduce slower; develope a large brain, develop a small brain; and on and on. There is absolutely no rational, coherent evolutionary theory that allows us to say which way a population is heading, how long it will take, whether it will even arrive. The whole process is the very definition of random. The idea that "selection" somehow removes the randomness from the Darwinian mechanism is preposterous and demonstrably false. Further, as pointed out by KF, the so-called selection mechanism is just another name for removing certain individuals from a population. It has absolutely nothing at all to say about where the information and biological features came from in the first place. For that we have to look to three possibilities: chance, law, and/or design.Eric Anderson
May 29, 2012
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PS: In the Darwinian style mechanism:
Chance variation + differential reproductive success/ Nat sel --> descent with modification
. . . The NS part, clearly REMOVES less successful varieties, per some distribution or other and so SUBTRACTS rather than ADDS information. That leaves chance variation as the alleged info writer. But where we are talking functionally specific and complex info, the scope of possible configs is so large that it swamps available resources. So, the challenge is to find by random search, deeply isolated islands of function in vast seas of non-function, without intelligence. Back to the million monkey problem. To get to OOL, we need 100 - 1 mn bits of genetic info, and major body plans require 10 - 100 mn+, both well beyond the 500 - 1,000 bits threshold. what the gradually branching tree of life model implies is a vast connected continent of function from microbes to man. The evidences required to support that just are not there. They would be comparable to finding an incremental, every tiny step change is functional path from a Hello World to Windows 7. What evidence we do have -- micro-evo, is about small variations in an existing body plan. Body plan origin is a major extrapolation, and it lacks empirical support. W3hat really props such up is a priori question begging by imposing de facto materialism by the back door of loaded imposed explanatory rules. Phil, not sci. KFkairosfocus
May 29, 2012
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J: If a claimed causal mechanism is empirically and analytically inadequate, it is inadequate and fails as an explanation -- much less a parsimonious one. The only empirically and analytically well warranted cause for the types of functionally specific complex info brought up by Dr Selensky [our resident Russian Physicist!] is indeed intelligence. If you would dismiss this, my answer is the same as for perpetuum mobiles vs thermodynamics laws -- show us. As for worked out cases, you may find the discussion here and onward useful, using a simplification that shows how the CSI metric can go to work in the real world. That talking point favoured by Dr Liddle et al has long since passed sell-by date. (Notice the protein family cases.) KFkairosfocus
May 29, 2012
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Eugene, We'll just have to agree to disagree I think! I've got no arguments you haven't already heard, I just find the evolutionary theory's version more parsimonious. It has fewer assumptions to my way of thinking. But I really appreciate the time you're spending talking to me about ID. I feel like I'm understanding things a lot better! By the way, can you point me to a case where the mathematics of infering design via Dr Dembski's explanatory filter have been worked out? I can't recall that I've ever seen the details spelled out for a real situation. Remember too . . . it's not just randomness!! Mutations are random. Selection is not.Jerad
May 29, 2012
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Jerad, I totally understand your concerns. However, the only credible explanation of semantics, functionality, semiosis as well as any other formalism in general is intelligence. Demonstrably, all these are present in biosystems (I hope here we agree). Emergence is not just poor explanation, it is no explanation. Evolution (given the initial conditions of a functional self-replicating whole) is an explanation but it is poor in the face of experimental data, given the universal probabilistic resources. Not only does ID posit it is possible to infer to design, but it also states when it is possible to do so and it quantifies agency involvement. For example, the test of this post is long enough to preclude chance/necessity on the gamut of the universe. Attributing creativity to randomness without a unifying functional and semantic framework to start with, is a gross overstatement, IMO.Eugene S
May 29, 2012
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Eric, Yeah, I guess that's the case. What a shame. I think it's a positive thing for a field of science to have open and honest discussions and arguments. Goodness knows there have been some blazing rows between members of the evolutionary camp. And, in the end, the science has benefited from such disagreements. You gotta admit that some members of the ID community are quick to jump on anything they think undermines evolutionary theory that comes from the mouth of an evolutionary theorist!! And yet the biologists still have their discussions. I'd encourage the ID community to have discussions and arguments about the presence of design in nature and not to worry too much what other people think. In the end, it will be to the benefit of ID. Maybe those issues are being examined out of the public eye. I'd love to hear some of what is being discussed.Jerad
May 28, 2012
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I don’t know why some are shy to talk about their personal take on ID.
Very simple. Careful proponents of ID like to keep the focus on the basic ID questions -- the ones I have outlined. This is important in order to keep the theory clean and uncluttered from second order questions and even irrelevancies. In that sense, prominent ID proponents tend to be much more careful than many evolutionary proponents (Dawkins, Provine, etc.) in not mixing their philosophical worldview into their scientific inquiry. In addition, there is a more unfortunate reason. Opponents of ID are extremely quick to pounce on any personal speculation of the second order questions about design (who, when, how, why) as illegitimizing the initial design inference. This is a very common and vocal tactic. So much so that when design proponents occasionally deign to speculate on second order questions they invariably have to remind the reader or the audience that it is a separate line of inquiry, does not follow directly from the design inference, is personal opinion, etc. Even with every attempt to be intellectually scrupulous and carefully explain to third parties what is part of the design inference and what is not, ID is still regularly misrepresented and smeared as "creationism in a cheap tuxedo" or similar. Sometimes it happens through ignorance, such as with many reporters; sometimes it happens deliberately and maliciously as with the regular disinformation put out on certain blogs and by organizations like the NCSE.Eric Anderson
May 28, 2012
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Joe, So . . . . the designer front-loaded all the necessary programming? Yeah? Collin, I have thought of that, I'd call it Questioning ID. I appreciate that there are different views within the ID community which is really fascinating!! I don't know why some are shy to talk about their personal take on ID. A committee . . . .that's interesting. I wonder if they took minutes of their meetings!! :-) That would explain some things I think. Eric, Regarding inferring some things are designed . . . using Dr Dembski's explanatory filter yes?? What kind of cases do you think are corner, edge and unusual? There certainly are a lot of open questions!! It's an exciting time to be alive!!Jerad
May 28, 2012
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Jerad wrote:
Regarding your two items . . . how do you think ID proponents are doing/have done to establish their veracity?
That (i) it is possible to infer some things are designed and that (ii) some features of life exhibit these characteristics is extremely well established. To the point of being, in my mind, one of the most sure things we know in science (other than our basic awareness, the fundamental physical laws, and pure deductive matters). There are corner cases, edge cases, and unusual cases that are challenging in detecting design. There are additional second-order questions that can be asked, once having answered the initial questions. There are lots of open questions about just how much purely natural and material processes can accomplish in specific populations over specific time periods. There are many remaining issues to be researched and discovered as to specific biological systems and processes. But that it is possible to identify that some things are designed, and that some living systems exhibit these characteristics, yes, this is extremely well established. -------- Collin wrote:
I personally believe that life exhibits signs of being designed by a committee.
LOL! I'm not making fun of this idea, it just struck me as very funny when I read it! I have to say, though, there may be something to it as we look at the many fascinating and unusual systems in biology. We'll have to definitely file that idea in the back of our minds and let it percolate a bit. Very interesting idea! :)Eric Anderson
May 28, 2012
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Jerad, You should start a blog and call it something like, "But what do ID-ers really think?" And we can discuss what we all believe underlies ID. We just don't want any of our speculations and personal beliefs to impede ID as a movement. Here's an example: I personally believe that life exhibits signs of being designed by a committee. I think I diverge with almost everyone on who comments here. I wouldn't want anyone to think that I represent anyone else or the scientific case for ID when I make this comment.Collin
May 28, 2012
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Jerad:
Are you saying that the ‘designer’ might be directing the mutations? How can you test that?
Directed in the same way a programmer directs the program- do not need to be present and actually directing things- it is all under software control. And we can test it by figuring out the programming.
But ID argues against a purely mechanical/natural/undirected process and the modern evolutionary consensus supports that process so . . . they are opposed in the causal agent.
ID argues against bliund and undirected processes such as natural selection, random muations and drift. Design is perfectly natural and can be mechanical. And the modern evolutionary consensus doesn't have any way to test its claims.Joe
May 28, 2012
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