Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Insane or Simply Wrong?

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David W. Gibson asks some interesting questions in a comment to johnnyb’s last post.  First, he writes concerning Darwinism:  “How could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after decades of detailed study, could STILL fall victim to the ‘transparently ludicrous’?”

Let me answer this question by referring to a couple of similar examples from hisotry.

In the second century Ptolemy devised his system of cosmology.  In this system each planet moves along a “deferent” and an “epicycle.”  The planet’s movement along these two paths cause it to move closer to and further away from the earth.  For the system to work, the planets sometimes had to slow down, stop, and even move backwards.

Tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world ascribed to Ptolemy’s cosmology from the publication of Almagest around 150 until well after the publication of De revolutionibus orbium coelestium in 1543.

But this system of deferents and epicycles is “transparently ludicrous” you say.  And so it is in retrospect.  Nevertheless it reigned nearly unchallenged for well over 1,000 years.

Here’s another example.  Humorism.  “This theory holds that the human body was filled with four basic substances, called humors, which are in balance when a person is healthy, and all diseases and disabilities result from an excess or deficit of one of these four humors. These deficits could be caused by vapors that were inhaled or absorbed by the body. The four humors were black bile, yellow bile, phlegm, and blood.”  Wikipedia.

Humorism was the prevailing medical orthodoxy from the time of Galen (circa 150 AD).  It was not definitively displaced until 1858 when Rudolf Virchow published his work on cellular pathology.

Your phrase “transparently ludicrous” comes readily to mind when we think about humorism now.  Yet it was the prevailing orthodoxy among tens of thousands of brilliant medical practitioners for nearly 2,000 years.

Now suppose one of Copernicus’ critics (and he had many; his theory was not accepted immediately) had said, “Hey Copernicus, how could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after 1,393 years of detailed study, could still fall victim to  a theory of cosmology that, if you are correct, is transparently ludicrous?”

Or suppose one of Virchow’s critics had said, “Hey wait a minute!  How could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after nearly 2,000 years of detailed study, could still fall victim to a theory of medicine that, if you are correct, is transparently ludicrous?”

I will put it to you David.  How should Copernicus or Virchow have answered those questions?

Finally you write:  “Centuries of scientific progress can only be explained by mass insanity. Does that work for you?”

First, I don’t know where you get “centuries.”  Origin was published in 1859.  That’s 153 years ago by my count.  Darwin has over 1,000 years to go before he reaches the same status as Ptolemy or Galen based on mere “age of the theory.”

Second, “mass insanity” is a nice strawman.  No one has suggested that someone who believes in Darwinism is insane.  They are simply wrong.

Were all cosmologists from Ptolemy to Copernicus insane?  No, they were simply wrong.

Were all doctors from Galen to Virchow insane?  No, they were simply wrong.

The essence of your argument for Darwinism is:  “All the smart people believe it; it must be true.”  I hope you understand now that that argument is not as airtight as you seem to think it is.

Comments
bornagain77:
“This was NOT a prediction.” Psalm 139:13-14 For you created my inmost being; you knit me together in my mother’s womb. I praise you because I am fearfully and wonderfully made; your works are wonderful, I know that full well.
I speculate that you are trying to say that this verse in Psalm 139:13-14 represents a prediction that all the DNA in the cell must have some useful purpose. This is, I will grant, certainly an imaginative interpretation. But it's interesting in another respect as well. For a long time, the total ignorance of exactly what happens in the womb led to some interesting notions. One of those notions was that fertilization (conception) created parts, each of which was a tiny replica of the adult version. And that what happened in the womb was that these tiny parts were "knitted together" to form a very small homunculus. In fact, what I've read was that the idea of an initial set of instructions was not dreamed up until after Hollerith and others created the idea of computer software. Suddenly, carrying out a program (or recipe, or set of stored directions) was MUCH more explanatory than the "tiny parts knitted together" model. I would be the last to disagree that such works are fearful and wonderful. No question about it.David W. Gibson
May 23, 2012
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Eric Anderson,
I’d like to understand how (i) simplicity of description favors design, and (ii) complexity of description favors a conclusion of chance/necessity.
I second this motion! You have identified a puzzle. ID has taken the position that if something is simple, it's not designed - except for the exceptions! And if something is complex it IS designed - except for the exceptions! And after some comparing and contrasting, the best I've been able to come up with is that ID proponents FIRST decide if something is designed, and then find post facto rationalizations for these foregone conclusions. And on what basis is the decision actually made? Again as far as I can tell, it's made by comparing something with what humans might design, or failing that, what scripture SAYS was Created (but this can't be admitted out loud, because doing so lets the religious cat out of the ID bag).David W. Gibson
May 23, 2012
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Collin,
What does this have to do with anything? If I make a specific prediction and it is born out by other individuals, it doesn’t matter at all whether or not I am the one doing the research.
I understand this. Nonetheless, I wished to emphasize that ALL the research is being done by mainstream science. When they are wrong, which they sometimes are, they are the ones who discover the error and make the corrections. Correcting errors is one way that progress is made. Kibitzing, even if occasionally accurate, makes no progress.
I think that the more junk DNA is discovered to be functional, the stronger the case for ID is. It doesn’t prove it, nor does the presence of junk DNA disprove ID, but more and more function strengthens the case.
While you may be right, I have difficulty finding "the case for ID" at all. Figuring out what all the DNA in the genome does is a daunting task. Initially, as I said before, little is known. Bit by bit, those sections of DNA that do something are identified and understood. I don't think you will find a practicing geneticist anywhere who believes that the actual or potential function of all the DNA in a cell has been identified. If ID's "prediction" is that more functionality will be found, I doubt anyone will disupte it. And I think you probably realize that predicting that ALL the DNA has some function amounts to proving a negative. After all, if no function is found this century, or next, or the century after that, it STILL might have a function not yet found. So that prediction is not testable.
A similar prediction is that so called, vestigial organs, and so called examples of bad design will be shown to have functions and be near optimal designs.
Sigh. Yes, you are quite correct, I think. Biology is very messy, to the point where it's nearly impossible to make ANY claim about it such that there are no exceptions. And evolution is opportunistic - it tends to co-opt functionality and use it for other purposes, but it is limited to incremental changes. Clearly, the "design" of all living organisms is sufficient, else the organism wouldn't survive. I agree the eye would not "work better" if it were rearranged to match, say, the octopus (nor was it an ID "researcher" who figured that out). Both of them have strengths relative to the other. So I personally dislike the argument of "poor design", because I think it misses the point. Instead, I prefer to consider the (extremely large) set of observations of incremental design, whereby some feature or function is slightly modified to become a somewhat different feature serving a somewhat different function. And HERE, I think. we have the key difference between evolutionary "design" and de novo design. Human designers are perfectly free to discard history, put a clean slate on their drawing board and start from scratch. And in fact, they do this often. Evolution NEVER does this, and in fact is prohibited from doing this. So maybe some researcher might try to find an instance of de novo design in life. Once again, of course, in order to do so, one must do research. One must have a testable hypothesis, and a null hypothesis, and an experimental methodology, and so on. AND, one must understand homology.David W. Gibson
May 23, 2012
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R0bb:
In Dembski’s framework, simplicity of description or low Kolmogorov complexity actually favors a conclusion of design, all else being equal. We’ve had this conversation before, and it seems that you still don’t believe this.
R0bb, sorry I missed this comment several days ago. I apologize if you've already explained this in detail at some point in the past, but can you briefly recap what you mean by this? I'd like to understand how (i) simplicity of description favors design, and (ii) complexity of description favors a conclusion of chance/necessity. Thanks,Eric Anderson
May 23, 2012
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Mr. Gibson, "NOTE that these discoveries were made by mainstream biologists doing real scientific research." What does this have to do with anything? If I make a specific prediction and it is born out by other individuals, it doesn't matter at all whether or not I am the one doing the research. I think that the more junk DNA is discovered to be functional, the stronger the case for ID is. It doesn't prove it, nor does the presence of junk DNA disprove ID, but more and more function strengthens the case. A similar prediction is that so called, vestigial organs, and so called examples of bad design will be shown to have functions and be near optimal designs. This has been born out by the fact that the appendix does have an important function and the fact that the photo receptors in the eye would NOT work better if the nerves that they connected to came from behind the eye instead of entering into the eye and connecting "backwards." Please also see the Frequently Raised by Weak Arguments Against ID section under the Resources tab above. Specifically see # 3, 4 and 24. Also see this article. http://www.discovery.org/a/2640Collin
May 23, 2012
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"This was NOT a prediction." Psalm 139:13-14 For you created my inmost being; you knit me together in my mother's womb. I praise you because I am fearfully and wonderfully made; your works are wonderful, I know that full well. Steven Curtis Chapman - God is God (Original Version) - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz94NQ5HRykbornagain77
May 23, 2012
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The only prediction I’ve heard ID proponents make (that is significantly different from evolutionary theory) is that it’s wrong to catagorise some DNA sequences as ‘junk’ DNA because more and more are being found to have some function.
According to those who have done the heavy digging, this is simply not the case. The facts are that some DNA sequences whose function was initially not known, have been found to do unexpected but functional things. NOTE that these discoveries were made by mainstream biologists doing real scientific research. And what happened was, some opponents of evolutionary theory misrepresented the initial assessment of "unknown" as "useless", noted that some functions have been found, and said "we knew it all along". Having done NO research, of course. But "I knew it all along" isn't a prediction by any stretch. Science continues to encounter surprising findings, which is a lot of what science is all about. To take anything surprising and label it as a mistake science made that ID wouldn't have made is silly. This was NOT a prediction. And by the way, as sequencing improves things are making more sense, and a lot of the mislabeled "junk" is showing itself to be miscopies, repetitive sequences, "broken" genes left over from past mutations, "place-holder" DNA to facilitate chromosome placement, process-management genes rather than protein-coding genes, and so on. NONE of which has been learned, or even contributed to, by the ZERO "ID researchers" into the genome.David W. Gibson
May 23, 2012
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Joe, ID doesn't violate known laws . . . . guess you'd better be more specific about what ID means!! How and when would be a good place to start. ID assumes the prescence of a designer for which there is no evidence apart from the objects it wants to assert have been designed. Sounds a bit circular to me. ID is testable as long as once a step-by-step sequence of mutations is shown to create major morphological changes its proponents admit the hypothesis is wrong. IF they come back and say: oh, maybe that time it worked but that doesn't mean it did for millions of other cases then it's NOT testable. Nor can you just say maybe that's the way the designer wanted to do it. That's not testable but I hear that all the time. I can't see what lines of evidence you are thinkng of. The case for ID seems to rest on some statistical arguments saying that certain mutation combinations are too improbable to have carried off big changes. And the notion that 'information' has only been observed to have been created by intelligence. In my mind both those contentions are problematic. Improbable doesn't mean impossible afterall AND my reading indicates that some of the statistical reasoning is off anyway. And it's a negative argument which, even if true, doesn't mean ID is true. Many people disagree with ID's characterisation of complex specified information AND it's never a good idea to argue that I haven't seen it so it shouldn't be considered. Also, there's that circular argument problem: when trying to decide IF something was designed you can't assume a designer existed. You gotta prove/establish/show it's plausible to assume that with other lines of evidence not the object in question!! And so far there is no independent evidence for a designer. The only prediction I've heard ID proponents make (that is significantly different from evolutionary theory) is that it's wrong to catagorise some DNA sequences as 'junk' DNA because more and more are being found to have some function. BUT no ID proponent has, to my knowledge, made a specific prediction about how much of the human genome say will turn out to have a function. The real problem is that always saying maybe that's the way the super-intelligent-otherwise-invisible designer doesn't explain anything. You give me some hows and whens and ideally some whys and I'll hopefully be able to tick off some of those boxes. I'm participating here to hopefully hear some of the thinking behind the big overall theory. Give me a process, something that's not just a negative argument against the modern synthesis. Give me some specifics!!Jerad
May 23, 2012
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Better model than what? Imagination is not a model. But anyway Intelligent Design is a better match for the evidence than the modern synthesis, doesn't violate known laws, doesn't have too many unfounded assumptions, is testable, is supported by multiple lines of evidence from different disciplines and can be applied to unkniown situations.Joe
May 23, 2012
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Joe, Well, unless you've got a better model that matches the evidence, doesn't violate known laws of physics and chemistry, doesn't have too many unfounded assumptions, is testable, is supported by multiple lines of evidence and can be applied to unknown situations then . . . . You've got doubts. Fair enough. Come up with something better.Jerad
May 22, 2012
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Jerad- I read up on the "evidence". And how is common descent the most parsimonious when you don't even know what is involved? Sure you think that it is all just descent with modification but we don't even know if changes to the genome can account for the phenotypic changes required- case in point voles: Rodent's bizarre traits deepen mystery of genetics, evolution:
The study focuses on 60 species within the vole genus Microtus, which has evolved in the last 500,000 to 2 million years. This means voles are evolving 60-100 times faster than the average vertebrate in terms of creating different species. Within the genus (the level of taxonomic classification above species), the number of chromosomes in voles ranges from 17-64. DeWoody said that this is an unusual finding, since species within a single genus often have the same chromosome number. Among the vole's other bizarre genetic traits: •In one species, the X chromosome, one of the two sex-determining chromosomes (the other being the Y), contains about 20 percent of the entire genome. Sex chromosomes normally contain much less genetic information. •In another species, females possess large portions of the Y (male) chromosome. •In yet another species, males and females have different chromosome numbers, which is uncommon in animals. A final "counterintuitive oddity" is that despite genetic variation, all voles look alike, said DeWoody's former graduate student and study co-author Deb Triant. "All voles look very similar, and many species are completely indistinguishable," DeWoody said. In one particular instance, DeWoody was unable to differentiate between two species even after close examination and analysis of their cranial structure; only genetic tests could reveal the difference. Nevertheless, voles are perfectly adept at recognizing those of their own species.
Yup after all this “evolution” a vole is still a vole. This study alone should cast a huge shadow over evolutionism.Joe
May 22, 2012
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Joe, It's more complicated than that clearly. You should read up on the genetic evidence for common descent with modification. I'm sure you could find a better explanation than the one I could give!! But, at it's simplest . . . if a genetic sequence esixts only in some plants or animals and not in others then why is it NOT a fair assumption that that sequence was passed on via common descent from some common ancestor? Especially if the sequence is not transcribed or clearly a broken gene. Like the GLO genes in primates. Why is common descent NOT the most parsimonious explanation? Seems like other explanations involve more assumptions. And assuming a designer implies that the plausibility of one has already been established when that's what ID is tring to prove. Aside from the question of why burden creatures with broken genes. You can keep saying: you haven't proved that but science is about finding models that have explanatory power, that are not contradicted by the available evidence, can be falsified, have predictive capacity and make the fewest number of assumptions. I know you'll argue that the modern evolutionary synthesis doesn't fulfil any of those but it's better than any of the alternatives that I've seen.Jerad
May 22, 2012
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How can we test the assumption that ERVs, broken genes and retroposons are evidence ofr universal common descent? You expect us to accept that a broken gene will, remain A) in a population, ie become fixed and B) remain intact enough over millions of years and generations of constant change to the population, to be used as a genetic marker? Really?Joe
May 22, 2012
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Joe,
2- There isn’t any genetic data that upholds universal common descent
Including endogenous retroviruses? And broken genes like the GLO genes in humans? And pseudogenes? And Retroposons? The shred kind obviously.Jerad
May 22, 2012
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And we have the genetic, fossil and geographical distrubution of species all of which uphold descent with modification.
1- Descent with modification is not being debated 2- There isn't any genetic data that upholds universal common descent 3- There isn't any genetic data that upholds universal common descent via accumulations of genetic accidents 4- IDists use "information" as it is currently defined- the attribute inherent in and communicated by one of two or more alternative sequences or arrangements of something (as nucleotides in DNA or binary digits in a computer program) that produce specific effects -> Meyer says exactly that in "Signature in the Cell"Joe
May 22, 2012
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Joe,
Ya see I find it a tad dishonest that you call for ID research when your position relies on untestable claims, ie cannot be reasearched as all it has are vast tracks of time.
And we have the genetic, fossil and geographical distrubution of species all of which uphold descent with modification. ID is upheld with some statistical arguments that certain biological process are unlikely.
Meyer, and all IDists, use the word “information” in the sense that IT uses it. That means the way the whole world of people use it.
Dr Dembski has defined information as
For there to be information, there must be a multiplicity of distinct possibilities any one of which might happen. When one of these possibilities does happen and the others are ruled out, information becomes actualized. Indeed, information in its most general sense can be defined as the actualization of one possibility to the exclusion of others (observe that this definition encompasses both syntactic and semantic information).
Jerad
May 22, 2012
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Earth to David Gibson- Unfortunately neither Shannon nor Kolmogorov deal with "information" the way people use the word information- ie the way information technology uses the word information. Meyer, and all IDists, use the word "information" in the sense that IT uses it. That means the way the whole world of people use it. Why is that so difficult to understand?Joe
May 22, 2012
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Jerad and David- Where is the research that demonstrates random mutations can accumuulate in such a way as to give rise to new, useful multi-protein configurations requiruing more than two new protein-to-protein binding sites? Ya see I find it a tad dishonest that you call for ID research when your position relies on untestable claims, ie cannot be reasearched as all it has are vast tracks of time.Joe
May 22, 2012
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Barry, We will disagree on the existence of a general suppression of 'non-Darwinist' research. I can't see a way around that so it's probably not worth arguing about again. And I accept that some of the necessary research we are talking about is expensive and takes a while. I would just like to encourage ID proponents and sympathisers and . . . whoever to focus their efforts on doing the irrefutable basic research that will prove the point. There is money out there to draw on. Go to the people who are supportive, present a research agenda and ask for support. If trying to pry money out of the establishment isn't working then go someplace else. If you really believe what you say then go with conviction and determination and ask for the resources you need. Revolutionaries don't win by complaining, they win by showing the world they are right. If there are lots of ID sympathetic academics out there then get together enough money to give them grants to pursue the reasearch. What is the expression? Don't let the bastards grind you down?Jerad
May 21, 2012
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Jerad writes: “It [by which he means suppression of non-Darwinist research] can’t all be the fault of the ‘Darwinists’ forever.” Jerad, I don’t think anyone wants to blame Darwinists who suppress non-Darwinist research “forever.” In fact, we would be perfectly happy to stop blaming them for suppressing non-Darwinist research the very instant they stop suppressing non-Darwinist research.Barry Arrington
May 21, 2012
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johnnyb:
But, between the two (genetics and Darwinism), genetics started with a testable, mathematical model, while Darwinism was mere speculation. So it would seem that Darwin’s ideas *should* be the ones which were held at bay, were ideology not a large part of it.
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but my reading is that natural selection (Darwin called it descent with variation) wasn't just armchair speculation, and indeed Origin of Species consists almost entirely of documented fieldwork in support of this idea.
So yes, including the ideas of creationists would be something that we should expect to take a while. And that is just my point – genetics went against the popular ideas of evolution. That’s why it wasn’t accepted at first. Genetics was inherently anti-evolutionary, and so those people predisposed to agree with evolutionary ideas didn’t want anything to do with it.
I can't understand why you would say genetics is anti-evolutionary. Darwin proposed a PATTERN, supported by a whole of legwork and a history of selective breeding of livestock and food crops. Darwin had no idea HOW it worked, but he could show that it happened. Genetics gets into the actual mechanics. Saying genetics is anti-evolutionary is like saying that the study of internal combustion engines is anti-transportation! Creationist ideas would be, I believe, readily accepted if creationists were to work within the enterprise of science. They are NOT excluded for ideological reasons, but rather for lack of scientific results. I cite the scientist who claimed ulcers were due to bacteria and not just stress. When nobody believed him, he actually drank the bacteria and got an ulcer! The moral is pretty simple - do the research. It's not enough to be correct, it's necessary to SHOW that you're correct.
This is Stephen Meyer’s point. He takes your position on historical inquiry as you describe it and applies it to the origin of information, and shows that mental processes are always at the root cause of information systems. If you think that this result is non-scientific, it is only by invoking philosophical naturalism. He has a result, a known cause of the result (in fact, the *only* known cause of the result), and draws an inference about the past.
Unfortunately, I read Meyer as doing so by equivocating on what is meant by "information". There are two rigorous definitions of information currently used, each within a narrow scope within which it's useful. These are Shannon and Kolmogorov information. Meyer is not using either one - he has his own rather fluid notions of what "information" means, and it seems to be whatever he needs it to be. This bothers me. Meyer needs to produce a strict operational definition of information and stock to it, so that others can replicate his research.
So, out of curiosity, do you think we should remove all talks of string theory and half of the talk about cosmology out of science textbooks and classrooms? Should we force string-theoretical physicists to move to philosophy departments?
Or perhaps into the math department. Of course, you understand that these particular topics aren't even covered in undergraduate physics, but rather at higher educational levels. And at those levels, their role is quite well understood.
If by “observations” you just mean consequences, then all you have done is, rather than indicate materialism, is to remove any real distinction between material and immaterial causes. Do you think that people who think there are immaterial causes also think that those causes don’t have consequences? Of course they do! So, you have simply redefined non-material causes as material, thus making the distinction meaningless.
Language is our enemy here. I suppose I could substitute the word "testable", since many non-material things (like force, energy, etc.) can be easily tested. Or perhaps I should use a negative definition, and say that by material I mean NOT miraculous or magical.
This is 1000% false! The truth is that when he did this, the DarwinBots cried foul and threatened to boycott anyone who tries to do this! Read up on the history of the Polanyi center, on Marks’ evolutionary informatics lab, and so on. Behe is protected by tenure, but his University has felt it necessary to add disclaimers to his presence there.
If you have a source for this, I could learn much more than I know right now. I haven't followed Dembski's career. I personally have no problem with a faculty disclaiming the actions of one of its members. I have read of several evolutionists being fired from creationist schools. I did read the Dembski said Noah's Flood might be a myth, he got called on the carpet, and came out and reversed his field. Suddenly it was real after all. So academic pressures exist across the spectrum.
Sternberg gets mothballed, not because of anything he wrote, but simply because he *allowed* someone else to write something arguing for Intelligent Design.
Now this case I DO know about in great detail, because I studied it. And your representation is, shall we say, very far from the facts. You may wish to read the Wikipedia version, which is as balanced as any I can find.
As an example, one of the denominations for which there is the least amount of top-down control (The Southern Baptists) is also the group for which there is the most uniformity – not only in doctrine but also in worship style. There is *no* command-and-control from the top – however they all look, act, and think similarly simply because of shared values and ideas. This does more to create a unified front than anything the Methodists or Catholics could muster up. With conspiracies, one has to constantly work to keep people in line. With a shared prejudice, no one actually has to work to make that happen.
You make a strong case that the Southern Baptists all share the same prejudice. I wonder how true this is, but I don't know how to find out.
Michael Ruse made much the same comment in a debate at OU with Dembski. In fact, he praised Dembsi’s work in The Design Inference, but said that applying it to biology is wrong because the only option for a designer would be God. But it seems like if that is the case, the problem isn’t the equations, it’s simply that someone doesn’t like the results of the equations, and we shouldn’t stop science simply because we don’t like the equation’s results.
Uh, this isn't my reading. I keep trying to say that we can infer design ONLY when we have sufficient external knowledge of the context, background, and history of the design. Without that, we can infer nothing from an object itself. Now, I know that Dembski is doing everything he can to "prove" that his god did all this stuff, and he "finds" his god wherever he looks. But Ruse is saying here that when the context is not known, design cannot be inferred. Ruse is right. There are no equations showing that life is designed, because this cannot be shown. Whether it's true or not, it cannot be shown.
Dembski and others have attempted to show that there are certain indications of the existence of a specification.
Quite so, and it's informative that the ONLY way they can do this is by assuming their conclusions, and using their conclusions as their premises. If I were to decide a priori that something was Designed, I'm sure I could gin up lots of equations describing it in detail. Then I could say "look at all those equations proving design just as I knew before I started." Logically, a specification can NOT be deduced from an object. There is simply no way to know if the object matches the specification, and absolutely no way to know if there WAS a specification, without knowledge external to the object itself. Anyway, I'm all in favor of ID research. My sense currently is that the few doing ID-related research are either trying to show that they've "found" what they already knew was there, or (as with Dembski and Marks) working very hard to disprove claims no competent biologist has ever made. When the underbrush is cleared away, you see biologists saying (for example) that it's possible to walk all the way across the country, even though every individual step is very small. Then Dembski and Marks (who don't like this, because it implies evolution can happen), do some research project proving beyond doubt that it's impossible to walk to the moon. And THEN they piously conclude that walking long distances a step at a time has been disproved! Needless to say, scientists are not impressed.David W. Gibson
May 21, 2012
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johnnyb, If you don't just 'poop them out on a whim' how do you know it's right? As David W points out, isn't it more sensible to at least remain partly skeptical until the case is proven? How do you know he is right? I really do appreciate the funding issue. It IS a consideration. These things cost. A lot. But if materialism is on its last legs then surely there is money somewhere to do the research and prove the point. It can't all be the fault of the 'Darwinists' forever. Grab the brass ring, put the money down and make the case!!Jerad
May 21, 2012
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johnnyb: I sense that you are engaged in special pleading here. When Dembski makes a claim that his explanatory filter works and does NOT produce false positives or negatives (and he has made that claim), then he should be able to back the claim up with actual applications. You are letting him claim something he can't support or demonstrate and seem willing to take his word for it, but when others ask him to demonstrate, you excuse him because of the scope of the task! Hey, I can make silly claims all day long, and then turn around say I can't afford a research effort to, you know, actually support those claims, so just TRUST ME! You trust Dembski, I suggest, because you like the unsupported and unsupportable claims he's making, and because you like those claims, you excuse him for not supporting them because, well, it's too hard! I think it would look better if you were to say, "well, maybe Dembski's EF works and maybe it doesn't, there are solid logical reasons to doubt that it's workable, but I'll withhold judgement pending the necessary research."David W. Gibson
May 21, 2012
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Jerad - "But using his explanatory filter is really just a purely mathematical exercise and he could be churning out examples of how it can be applied to known examples of designed and undesigned objects to establish its usefulness." Except that it takes lots of research to fill in the values. If you don't have a full microbiology lab, and tons of free time, you can't do it. Most people have jobs and don't have $4million in the bank to do that. "Anyway, he doesn’t need anyone’s permission, he can just do it." I think this is the main misconception. Ideas don't jump into being from nothing. They take work. They take time. They take money. In order to get the time to do the work, you need institutional sponsorship. If the DarwinBots protest every time an institution touches ID, that makes it difficult to move forward. As an example - I spend a large part of my free time on ID. However, I have only had the time to partially develop one or two ideas over the last two years. Without institutional sponsorship, I have to work on it between 10PM and 2AM, which doesn't make interaction with other scholars very likely, and is not my most productive time. Also, without coordination with a microbiology laboratory, it is hard to run the tests needed to fill out various variables. And, in fact, Bill has been applying his ideas on design detection where he can without the help of a microbiology laboratory - by analyzing computer simulations of mutations. He's been fairly prolific in publishing there. So, in short, he *has* been doing precisely what you suggest! It's just that to do it rigorously in biology requires a lab, which, incidentally, requires institutional support. The Biologic Institute has been doing some of this, but, as I said, a research program takes a long time to develop. You don't just poop them out on a whim.johnnyb
May 21, 2012
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johnnyb,
This is 1000% false! The truth is that when he did this, the DarwinBots cried foul and threatened to boycott anyone who tries to do this! Read up on the history of the Polanyi center, on Marks’ evolutionary informatics lab, and so on.
But using his explanatory filter is really just a purely mathematical exercise and he could be churning out examples of how it can be applied to known examples of designed and undesigned objects to establish its usefulness. Or maybe he has and I've missed it. Anyway, he doesn't need anyone's permission, he can just do it.Jerad
May 21, 2012
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"I think you are too ready to assume a conspiracy when more reasonable explanations suggest themselves." I don't think there was a conspiracy. My point was simply that the relationship between evolution and genetics was quite uneasy for the first 50 years, precisely because the theories looked at the world so differently. In fact, I think Will Provine made basically the same point in his book The Origins of Theoretical Population Genetics. "rather because science tends to be conservative, and resistant to large changes without extensive validation." But, between the two (genetics and Darwinism), genetics started with a testable, mathematical model, while Darwinism was mere speculation. So it would seem that Darwin's ideas *should* be the ones which were held at bay, were ideology not a large part of it. "A case of extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary evidence....well-established would refuting data need to become, before you’d be willing to change your mind? Certainly doing so wouldn’t be done lightly." I totally agree. And this goes to the point several people made in this thread - Darwin wasn't really all that radical. The idea of evolution goes all the way back to Lucretius. So yes, including the ideas of creationists would be something that we should expect to take a while. And that is just my point - genetics went against the popular ideas of evolution. That's why it wasn't accepted at first. Genetics was inherently anti-evolutionary, and so those people predisposed to agree with evolutionary ideas didn't want anything to do with it. "So my reading is that this problem is well-recognized, efforts are constantly made to minimize it, and if predictions based on results start failing, then it wasn’t done well enough" Isn't that 90% of the work that ID does right now? "Hypotheses can say “IF we find X in location Y, our ideas are supported. If we can’t, our ideas are not supported.” No philosophical naturalism there, that I can see. But it DOES mean that something that happened in the past is experimentally testable to that degree. For example, I can test the age of a tree in the forest by counting rings. Nobody watched it grow, but knowledge about rings from trees that HAVE been watched give us a good mechanism." What about things for which no good mechanism has been observed? Or one for which the only good mechanism that has been observed is non-materialistic? This is Stephen Meyer's point. He takes your position on historical inquiry as you describe it and applies it to the origin of information, and shows that mental processes are always at the root cause of information systems. If you think that this result is non-scientific, it is only by invoking philosophical naturalism. He has a result, a known cause of the result (in fact, the *only* known cause of the result), and draws an inference about the past. "I agree. If it can’t be tested, it’s not science." So, out of curiosity, do you think we should remove all talks of string theory and half of the talk about cosmology out of science textbooks and classrooms? Should we force string-theoretical physicists to move to philosophy departments? "the Copenhagen interpretation is debated" I agree. But the point is that it, despite including non-material elemnts, is well within the bounds of physics inquiry. "by “materialistic” I mean subject to physical observation." If by "observations" you just mean consequences, then all you have done is, rather than indicate materialism, is to remove any real distinction between material and immaterial causes. Do you think that people who think there are immaterial causes also think that those causes don't have consequences? Of course they do! So, you have simply redefined non-material causes as material, thus making the distinction meaningless. "Once an idea can be operationalized into testability, it becomes a scientific idea" And that's the whole point of Intelligent Design!!!!! "If string theory is forever nontestable, why would it attract so many researchers for so long? Apparently there’s something compelling that draws them." Agreed! "If Dembski’s ideas were compelling, he would hardly be alone in trying to firm up and test them, refine them and validate them. But he didn’t even make the effort – not to apply his method, not to recruit help, not even to reply to those making the requests." This is 1000% false! The truth is that when he did this, the DarwinBots cried foul and threatened to boycott anyone who tries to do this! Read up on the history of the Polanyi center, on Marks' evolutionary informatics lab, and so on. Behe is protected by tenure, but his University has felt it necessary to add disclaimers to his presence there. Sternberg gets mothballed, not because of anything he wrote, but simply because he *allowed* someone else to write something arguing for Intelligent Design. Over and over and over the DarwinBots try to stifle the debate. They prevent students from graduating or actively prevent them from going further. "Furthermore, Dembski has DECREED that certain things are Designed, as a matter of simple assertion." Where has he done this? Which things? Reference please. "I have been following the discussions on Active Information, but so far I haven’t quite figured out what this is. I’m hoping it leads to something interesting." Active Information is measuring the amount of information a search algorithm knows about its search space. It is interesting! Watch UD for more information on it in the future. "I would personally make every effort to reduce the odor of paranoid conspiracy theory here" I think you misunderstand what is being suggested. It is not conspiracy but prejudice and group-think. There is *some* conspiracy, as, for instance, the NCSE is basically a group which openly conspires to shut down debate against Darwinism. And you usually find the NCSE around such things. But the large-scale opposition is one of prejudice rather than conspiracy. It's interesting because prejudice can actually influence a lot stronger than conspiracy. As an example, one of the denominations for which there is the least amount of top-down control (The Southern Baptists) is also the group for which there is the most uniformity - not only in doctrine but also in worship style. There is *no* command-and-control from the top - however they all look, act, and think similarly simply because of shared values and ideas. This does more to create a unified front than anything the Methodists or Catholics could muster up. With conspiracies, one has to constantly work to keep people in line. With a shared prejudice, no one actually has to work to make that happen. "I will point out that far more money has been available to ID organizations like the Discovery Institute, than has been spent on anything resembling scientific research" Actually, Discovery actually spends quite a bit on scientific research. However, it is usually not publicized in order to protect the researchers. "It’s a matter of public record that most of that money goes into public relations and political lobbying." First of all, there's nothing wrong with those two tasks. And, in fact, in the global scheme of the Discovery Institute, ID is merely one of the things they participate in, and a fairly recent one at that. But some of the political lobbying is simply for academic freedom for people to look into the question. I think that having the freedom to explore a question is logically prior to actually exploring it. "at the core of Intelligent Design lies the Intelligent Designer" Except that, as several people are doing in the Engineering and Metaphysics Conference, we are applying ID to engineering problems about human designers. Here, the Intelligent Designer is you and me. Michael Ruse made much the same comment in a debate at OU with Dembski. In fact, he praised Dembsi's work in The Design Inference, but said that applying it to biology is wrong because the only option for a designer would be God. But it seems like if that is the case, the problem isn't the equations, it's simply that someone doesn't like the results of the equations, and we shouldn't stop science simply because we don't like the equation's results. In fact, a very similar thing was said about the Big Bang theory. Many scientists didn't like the Big Bang theory because it pointed to God. Now, in recent times, some people have (or think they have) gotten around this, but that's irrelevant (the same might happen for ID in the future). At the time of its proposal, the only logical prior cause to the Big Bang was God (and, in fact, the person who proposed it, LeMaitre, believed that it was God). Does that mean that it was unscientific for LeMaitre to propose the Big Bang? "because there is no way to determine whether the design meets the spec, or even if it ever HAD a spec." An interesting assertion, but is it true? Dembski and others have attempted to show that there are certain indications of the existence of a specification. As to your point about tree rings - if tree rings indicate that X number of years have passed, might there be indications in an object that a specification existed for it? You might disagree with someone's answer, or think they did a bad job, or what not. But why is it a question that should not be asked? "Consider a landslide. Those are exceedingly complex, but are they specified? If someone triggered it with dynamite, THEN was it specified? If you don’t know and can’t tell, then what?" All of those are interesting questions, which is precisely the point of Intelligent Design! At the current stage of research, there are methods which have been proposed to include design but not to exclude design. Just like with tree rings, there are cases when trees get an extra ring, not from a year, but from certain environmental cases. The fact that there are anomalies that are difficult to account for, or that there are certain cases which simply won't detect, doesn't mean that the instrument is altogether not useful.johnnyb
May 20, 2012
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johnnyb:
Evolution didn’t like the idea of long-term stability, which is why they went with Darwin’s blending inheritance for almost a half century before the Mendelists manage to persuade them otherwise. That was my main point – a well-evidenced, experimentally-directed idea took 50 years before it was mainstream, simply for the fact that it didn’t accommodate Darwin’s speculations well enough.
Your phrasing confuses me a bit. "Evolution" isn't any sort of volitional individual, it's (at least in this discussion) a proposed set of explanations for a set of observations. Mendel's findings weren't "disliked by evolution", they were valuable data sufficient to require serious extension and modification to existing ideas. Not because Darwin or any other historical individual had speculated incorrectly, at least as I read it, but rather because science tends to be conservative, and resistant to large changes without extensive validation. A case of extraordinary claims requiring extraordinary evidence. I think you are too ready to assume a conspiracy when more reasonable explanations suggest themselves. I know you have your own ideas about evolution. Let's say for the sake of discussion that your ideas are largely in correct. How well-established would refuting data need to become, before you'd be willing to change your mind? Certainly doing so wouldn't be done lightly.
Ernst Mayr both at once pointed out the difficulty of this new method and accepted it epistemically as being equivalent with that of physical testing. I think that it is epistemically problematic because (a) you are limited in the kinds of causes you presume, (b) you are limited in the number of variables you can control, and (c) you are limited to the number of “experiments” (Mayrs word for this, NOT mine) you can perform.
Yes, I agree with you here. Science is limited to what can be empirically tested, which does limit the kinds of causes that can be considered. Controlling for variables is a fine art in science for many reasons -- too many variables muddy results, eliminating relevant variables invalidates results, etc. So my reading is that this problem is well-recognized, efforts are constantly made to minimize it, and if predictions based on results start failing, then it wasn't done well enough. I think Mayr's point was that these and other difficulties make scientific findings always provisional, and "fully correct" can be approached only incrementally and never completely.
Methodological materialism says that, methodologically, science can only investigate material causes/events. In order to investigate the past, you have to investigate all potential causes, and therefore, when applying science to the past you move from methodological materialism to philosophical materialism.
I would disagree here, I think. As I understand it, investigations of the past are limited by the inability to generate new data and the limits on old data that can be considered. But this doesn't change the nature of the methodology or the philosophy. It means you find a best-fit explanation for the data available, subject to change if new data should surface. I think the ability of science to study the past is quite narrowly limited. Hypotheses can say "IF we find X in location Y, our ideas are supported. If we can't, our ideas are not supported." No philosophical naturalism there, that I can see. But it DOES mean that something that happened in the past is experimentally testable to that degree. For example, I can test the age of a tree in the forest by counting rings. Nobody watched it grow, but knowledge about rings from trees that HAVE been watched give us a good mechanism. Beyond this, and to a limited extent, we can extrapolate from current observations if we have enough of them. I think such methods as radiometric dating, tree rings, varves, ice cores, magnetic orientations of certain rocks, and many other lines of research produce a reliable picture of some aspects of the past. But of course, science can probably never tell me whether my great grandfather suffered the gout.
Testability is actually at the heart of ID. However, if you put this as an ultimate mandate, then you would have to cut out large parts of modern science, such as string theory and cosmology.
I agree. If it can't be tested, it's not science. Now, string theory surely qualifies, since no tests can even be suggested. Cosmology sort of half-qualifies - the evidence is sufficient to draw some solid if tentative conclusions, but the evidence is always indirect. Your link is something I have read in the past, and I understand it - if the accelerating expansion of the universe continues, more and more of the universe will be receding from us faster than light, and thus become forever invisible. And therefore not testable.
I think this is our primary point of disagreement. And I think you will find even some physicists are disagreeing with you here – some versions of quantum theory promote the mind to a fundamental place in causation (i.e. the Copenhagen interpretation). But more directly to your point, it depends on what you mean by “materialistic”.
Well, the Copenhagen interpretation is debated. But anyway, by "materialistic" I mean subject to physical observation. And the Copenhagen interpretation is in fact a proposed explanation for a set of observations. If you are trying to say that the mind is not material, this is a different topic, and maybe deserves a different thread.
physics just keeps on absorbing more and more spiritual ideas and finding ways to test them. Non-local causation, time as a contingent part of nature, non-deterministic causality – all of these began as spiritual ideas. What made them physical was not that all-of-a-sudden we changed the ideas, but rather someone had the insight on how to systematize them and test them.
And I think that's a Good Thing. Once an idea can be operationalized into testability, it becomes a scientific idea. (I'm not familiar with Wolfram's ideas. As you present them, they sound OK to me, but I'd have to spend more time on them,)
I don’t entirely disagree with you here, except for the implication. “Not a hard task, right?” Dembski is one person working alone. Take String Theory as another example – you have an entire arm of physics working on something for decades that hasn’t produced anything yet. But then Dembski is the one criticized because he hasn’t by himself finished making his ideas fully testable? This seems to me a huge double-standard.
Well, let's look at it differently. If string theory is forever nontestable, why would it attract so many researchers for so long? Apparently there's something compelling that draws them. If Dembski's ideas were compelling, he would hardly be alone in trying to firm up and test them, refine them and validate them. But he didn't even make the effort - not to apply his method, not to recruit help, not even to reply to those making the requests. Furthermore, Dembski has DECREED that certain things are Designed, as a matter of simple assertion. How does he know, unless he conducted the necessary tests? And if he has, why can't he conduct tests on objects with which he is not familiar? So I don't see a double standard here, I see Dembski claiming he already did it, being challenged to do it on someone else's objects, and backing out immediately. I have been following the discussions on Active Information, but so far I haven't quite figured out what this is. I'm hoping it leads to something interesting.
The difference is that the mountain of prejudice against ID prevents ID’ers from moving forward. Dembski’s Polanyi center was shut down because of Darwinist screeds, and they’ve tried to do the same thing with the Evolutionary Informatics lab.
I would personally make every effort to reduce the odor of paranoid conspiracy theory here. Many labs have shut down, and Dembski and Marks seem to be doing fine. When grants are not forthcoming, many researchers are left stranded, it happens almost daily, but they are not blaming the evil theists for their misfortune. Anyway, I am going to partly agree and partly disagree with you on this one. I agree that the sheer time and money necessary to develop a major research program is considerable, and not easy to come by. I will point out that far more money has been available to ID organizations like the Discovery Institute, than has been spent on anything resembling scientific research. It's a matter of public record that most of that money goes into public relations and political lobbying. And I think that says something important. It says that if you follow the money, you see that ID is a social and political movement, and not a scientific proposal. Where I disagree is, at the core of Intelligent Design lies the Intelligent Designer, and this is a fundamentally religious concept, and NOT a scientific concept. It is inherently incapable of being tested. ID proponents have been (IMO reasonably) asked for such details as who did the designing, how it was done, what the method was, when it happened, whether it's still happening, and how can anyone tell. And so far, I have seen nothing responsive to these requests. Yet for ID to even get off the ground as a research program, ALL of these questions must be addressed both directly and empirically.
In order for it to be a specification, it must be much more specific. But at some point, you are over-specifying. The precise precision of atoms isn’t really relevant, and, if you specified them, it would take a lot of words, thus making the specification bigger. The question is, at what point is it sufficiently specified but not over-specified?
I think the relevant point here is, a design specification always precedes the design. It is generally not possible to deduce the specification from the design itself, because there is no way to determine whether the design meets the spec, or even if it ever HAD a spec. Consider a landslide. Those are exceedingly complex, but are they specified? If someone triggered it with dynamite, THEN was it specified? If you don't know and can't tell, then what?David W. Gibson
May 18, 2012
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R0bb - Great to hear from you! We are going to publish the proceedings, but have not decided on a publisher. We have several options at the moment, and are looking at others. Excellent point about the relationship between a fuzzy specification and P(T|H). However, that's just the point. His analysis of P(T|H) requires that "bidirectional motor-driven propeller" mean the same thing as "bacterial flagellum", so even if P(T|H) analysis were correct, it is not clear that it would directly correlate. There may be a variety of radically different designs, even for nano-machines, of bidirectional motor-driven propellers. I don't disagree with the idea that the probabilities are small, but I'm pretty sure he hasn't calculated them.johnnyb
May 18, 2012
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johnnyb:
The question is, at what point is it sufficiently specified but not over-specified?
I think the idea behind his definition of specified complexity in that paper is to allow you to use any description you want. If the description is too long, then φ_S(T) is large and the resulting specified complexity is small. But theoretically the specified complexity is also small if you the description is too short, as short descriptions are ostensibly less specific, which increases the probability P(T|H). So design is not inferred for over- or under-specified events. I submit that this attempted balance doesn't work for one simple reason: As soon as we invent a term for something, its description length collapses to one or two words. For example, the most accurate description of a bacterial flagellum is "bacterial flagellum". In his previous work, Dembski would reject such a description, calling it a "fabrication", because it didn't meet the independence requirement. But in the Specification paper, he dispensed with this requirement. I note too that Dembski didn't calculate P(T|H) for the flagellum, but said that "some initial estimates for these probabilities are now in place," referring to his analysis of the hypothesis in which a flagellum comes together through sheer random combination. But the relevance of his estimate hinges on the assumption that random combination is the only relevant alternative to design, an assumption that no evolutionist would grant. Best of luck to you in your conference! Will it be published? Eric:
My experience with Dembski’s examples is that he almost always over-simplifies what has to be specified (just as you have stated with the flagellum). As a result, his assessments/calculations typically are more favorable to mechanistic processes than reality would suggest.
In Dembski's framework, simplicity of description or low Kolmogorov complexity actually favors a conclusion of design, all else being equal. We've had this conversation before, and it seems that you still don't believe this. The only reason it would favor mechanistic processes is if the simplicity of description results in a large P(T|H), but as I pointed out to johnnyb, we certainly can't count on that.R0bb
May 18, 2012
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There's a difference between facts, and an broad interpretation of what those facts indicate. As with the epicycles, it's not the facts that in contention, but what the conceptual interpretation of what those facts mean. When the facts constantly surprise and shock the proponents of a theory, and when the theory must be constantly amended and manipulated to accommodate facts, at some point it becomes transparently ludicrous to continue to believe that the theory is a good one. I think that, for most reasonable people, that point came when it was discovered that the cell is not just a bag of primordial protoplasm, but rather a tiny city full of programmed nanobots operating from the most sophisticated code in existence. I think that probably would have sufficed for Darwin and his contemporaries, who did not have 150 years to grow an infrastructural and institutional allegiance (financially and ideologically) to what is now clearly a ludicrous hypothesis.William J Murray
May 18, 2012
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