Is COVID-19 the end of “Trust Science!!”?

_{May 11, 2020

Canada, Culture, Intelligent Design, Science}

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What happens when “science” is speaking with dozens of different voices, each a momentary flash of Truth unto itself?

Recently, some interesting facts came to light from Canada about who is really affected by COVID-19:

The National Institute on Aging says that as of May 6, 3,436 residents and six staff members of long term care settings had died of COVID-19, representing 82 per cent of the 4,167 deaths reported as of Wednesday…
Last fall, the National Institute on Aging warned long term care homes were plagued by conditions that increased the risk of spreading infections: people living in close quarters in residences faced with chronic shortages of staff, with little space or ability to enforce proper physical distancing measures, where poorly paid employees often work on a part-time basis at multiple facilities, increasing the risk.
The pandemic has borne out those fears.
Tonda MacCharles, “82% of Canada’s COVID-19 deaths have been in long-term care, new data reveals” at Toronto Star

I (O’Leary for News) recall being told explicitly months ago that COVID-19 mainly killed old and/or immune-compromised people. It must be so, at least in Canada, where there have been very few deaths among healthy young people.

So why close schools, throw young people out of work, shut down and maybe destroy their businesses, make it nearly impossible for young families to move, let heart patients die because their surgeries are postponed…

Do we need Albert Einstein to figure this out?: We know where the people in long-term care are. They’re in licensed government-inspected or -run facilities. If we had simply moved to address the problems outlined above and protect them, instead of sucker-punching young people’s lives, we might have saved many seniors, prevented much loss and damage, and weathered the storm much better.

But then we’d need to ignore the pack howls from “science.”

Once we climb back out of the hole we have so furiously dug for ourselves, let’s start thinking more about ignoring the pack howls from “science.”

After all, how many more of them can we afford?

See also: But IS there such a thing as pandemic science? Or is it just panic science? The problems that Lenzer and Brownlee identify in their screed as wrong science are normal components of a panic in a crisis. What it all really shows is that we aren’t as much smarter than our forebears as we think.

Comments

Should this Indian treatment be used in the West without clinical trials?
It most definitely should be quickly investigated. Why would anyone object to finding out what was done and the basis for it. Are you implying there is something wrong with it because it is Indian? The article does not mention what was done to see if there is a good basis for what was used. But anything that helps boost the immune system should be helpful. So find out immediately. People are dying. Read the history of quinine and malaria. It was the bark of a tree used by local people that provided the chemical to treat malaria. HCQ and zinc have histories and medical studies backing up their potential benefit. Then there is success with over a thousand patients in last couple months. No negatives, lots of positives just irrational objections by people who offer no alternative except let them die. A good friend of a close acquaintance was diagnosed with C19 two days ago. She was sent home with no treatment and told to wait it out. She is the exact person that should be given the harmless but effective treatment. Why? What explains such a negative attitude? That is the real crisis. It is on full display on this small site.jerry_{May 17, 2020
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Should this Indian treatment be used in the West without clinical trials? After all, thousands are dying and they say it works. Dwaraka Doss Goverdhan Doss Vaishnav College in Arumbakkam is conducting trail-based research to treat COVID-19 patients with Indian traditional medicines. First 20 COVID-19 patients were assigned to Dr Veerababu here to treat them with Indian traditional medicines along with western medicines. Later the number of patients increased to 69 and all of them were discharged in four days with the help of Indian traditional medicines treatment. Radhakrishnan, IAS, working as a nodal officer for the Chennai Corporation, said: "We have already got a research-based license for Indian traditional medicine of Neelavambu Kudineer. So far as COVID-19 is concerned, our first priority is prevention and aggressive testing." “ We are also popularising the Indian traditional medicines to improve the immune system of the people," he added. Now, the focus is on the hotspots of COVID-19. More than 50 Siddha doctors are taking care of hotspots and giving treatment to the patients and also increasing the immune system of the people living in surrounding areas. https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/health/1053967-69-corona-patients-recover-in-chennai-with-traditional-indian-treatmentrhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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The Shawnee County Health Department is investigating several cases of COVID-19 linked to one or more group events that took place in May at Lake Perry. At least 10 people from multiple counties and two states who participated in the event(s) were confirmed as infected, and at least two additional people were infected as a result of having come in contact with the people who gathered at the lake. Over 20 people have been placed on quarantine as a result of having been exposed to the virus through some of the people who attended the lake event. It appears that the gatherings at the lake violated the statewide stay-at-home order that was in place at that time. During the investigation, the Health Department was able to unveil a link between some of the people infected at the lake and a recruit officer at the Topeka Police Department Recruit Academy Class who tested positive for the virus and who did not participate at any gatherings at Lake Perry. The presence of the infected recruit has forced the academy to shut down temporarily. All the recruits have been placed on quarantine. “ This is a strong reminder of how easy it is to be infected by this virus”, said Dr. Gianfranco Pezzino, Shawnee County Health Officer. “It is also an example of how disregarding the orders of public health authorities may result in a cascade of events leading to large disruptions and exposure to the virus for multiple people.” https://www.wibwnewsnow.com/police-academy-closure-linked-to-group-event-at-lake-perry/rhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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Eight more sailors aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive a second time for the new coronavirus, raising to 13 the number who appear to have become infected again while serving aboard the sidelined aircraft carrier. A ll the sailors had previously tested positive and had gone through at least two weeks of isolation. Before they were allowed to go back to the ship, all had to test negative twice in a row, with the tests separated by at least a day or two. https://www.pressherald.com/2020/05/16/the-latest-spain-pm-wants-to-extend-state-of-emergency-2/rhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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The coronavirus pandemic is spreading from cities to rural communities that have a higher share of older, at-risk residents, a trend that has implications for the stress it may put on local health-care systems as well as the push by many governors to ease economic restrictions and reopen for business. A Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows in the two-week period between April 20 and May 4, newly confirmed Covid-19 cases in nonmetropolitan areas outpaced those in metro areas by 30%. https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-is-spreading-faster-in-rural-communities-with-aging-populations-11589601660rhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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There is no reason for the French doctors not to have started a standard clinical trial after reporting their initial findings. Have they? The reason these clinical trials are necessary (and you can see just how many of them are now at stage III in the above post) is that they establish results with much higher certainty and significantly greater detail.rhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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number of people in intensive care units dropped to 2,132 from 2,203 on Friday. The 96 deaths recorded on Saturday marked one of the lowest tolls since mid-March, when France imposed a nationwide lockdown that began to ease this week. However weekend tolls are frequently lower than in the week, possibly due to reporting lags, particularly in nursing homes. The government has warned it will consider locking down the country again if daily new infections rise above 3,000. On Friday, the number of infections increased by 563 to 141,919, up 0.4% and the ninth consecutive day that the case tally rose by about half a percentage point or less. On Friday, doctors in Marseille reported the country's first fatality from a rare childhood disease that experts have linked to the coronavirus. There have been 125 reported cases in France between March 1 and May 12, according to the country's public health agency. The patients' ages ranged from one to 14. https://www.france24.com/en/20200516-france-records-96-new-covid-19-deaths-as-hospitalisations-continue-to-fallrhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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Huh? The doctors behind the “miracle cure” have yet to provide evidence that meets the criteria and of a clinic trial.
Several things: First, people are dying by the tens of thousands. To suggest a clinical trial is necessary before using a promising protocol of well established drugs with almost no side effects is an indication of extreme callousness. Second, the French study you point to is an irrelevant study for a couple reasons. First, the patients were already in extremis. The "miracle cure" and the even better cure are meant for those who have not reached the need for hospitalization. The goal is to prevent hospitalization. The patients in the study were all hospitalized and on oxygen. Then what you referred to as the miracle cure was not administered to all but only to a few. The few who did get the "miracle cure" all progressed positively. None died. You ignore several positive outcomes around the world using the "miracle cure" and even better results using the better than "miracle cure." That is adding zinc to HCQ. By doing so you indicate a lack of knowledge on what is happening around the world with regards to treating people with this virus. Because of this lack of knowledge you should probably refrain from posting comments about the virus until you catch up on what is going on. By the way you have just pointed out that France has a terrible track record compared to many other countries and they do not recommend the "miracle cure" for use in France. It would seem counterproductive to use an example of bad results to support your point. Let's compare Italy which is not recommending HCQ with France who apparently has abandoned it for most of the country. Italy as of today had 224,000 cases with 31,7000 deaths and 122.800 recovered patients. France has 179,000 cases, 27,600 dead and 61,000 recovered. Or about just 34% recovered. Italy has 55% recovered. Looks like Italy is doing better but we will have to see what the results are in another couple weeks.. Italy had more cases sooner than France.jerry_{May 16, 2020
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Scientists and health experts across the world are working day and night to find a cure for the Covid-19 pandemic. At last count, at least 140 clinical trials that are in phase II and phase III are being conducted by various countries. Out of these 140, 67 clinical trials have reached phase III. Phase III in clinical trial is referred as the phase in which the drug is administered to a large number of people to expand the scope of its study for effectiveness and safety of the drug. The next step, if the trial is successful, is to apply for necessary permission from drug controllers and start the commercial production of the vaccine or the drug. Out of these 67 advanced-level clinical trials, 23 of them are being carried out in the United States. Four such research have reached phase III in China. The other countries which are in the race to find a cure for Covid-19 and are at phase III include France, Canada, Spain, Russia, Germany, Italy, among some others. More details in article https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news/140-clinical-trials-cure-covid-advanced-stagerhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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Researchers at NYU's Grossman School of Medicine found patients given the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine along with zinc sulphate and the antibiotic azithromycin were 44 percent less likely to die from the coronavirus. The study looked at the records of 932 COVID-19 patients treated at local hospitals with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. More than 400 of them were also given 100 milligrams of zinc daily. Researchers said the patients given zinc were one and a half times more likely to recover, decreasing their need for intensive care. https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2020/05/12/nyu-study-looks-at-hydroxychloroquine-zinc-azithromycin-combo-on-decreasing-covid-19-deathsbornagain77_{May 16, 2020
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>>>8 BobRyan May 12, 2020 at 12:25 am Sweden has not been putting any measures in place, including distancing. They were projected to reach 100,000 dead by May 1. It hasn’t even reached 3500. Projections are based on science-fiction. Everything being done from quarantine to distancing, contact hand washing to wearing masks, is weakening the immune system.<<< Are you seriously suggesting that people should stop washing their hands?critter_{May 16, 2020
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The anti-inflammatory drug hydroxychloroquine does not significantly reduce admission to intensive care or death in patients hospitalized with pneumonia due to covid-19, finds a study from France published by The BMJ on May 14, 2020. The researchers say that caution is needed in the interpretation of their results, but that their findings do not support the use of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalized with covid-19 pneumonia. A randomized clinical trial from China also published on May 14, 2020, shows that hospitalized patients with mild to moderate persistent covid-19 who received hydroxychloroquine did not clear the virus more quickly than those receiving standard care. Adverse events were higher in those who received hydroxychloroquine. While further work is needed to confirm these results, the authors say that their findings do not support the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat patients with persistent mild to moderate covid-19. https://scitechdaily.com/results-from-randomized-clinical-trial-do-not-support-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19/rhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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Huh? The doctors behind the “miracle cure” have yet to provide evidence that meets the criteria and of a clinic trial. They, unfortunately, are resting on the laurels of their early results with all the problems associated with it. In the time since, they should have continued with a true clinical trial to back up their findings. Have they? In the meantime, others around the world have done so and have already published results that were not as favorable. Why have the French doctors “quit”?rhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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This is how well France is handling COVID-19, the home of your “miracle cure”
But is France using the miracle cure? Actually what you are referring to is a less effective cure. Adding zinc to it makes it much more potent. Also most of the negative results from using HCQ come from using it wrong. Mainly because the FDA had directed its wrong use, probably for legal reasons. But it has lots of positive results around the world. You should look into them. So you just supported my position and admitted your position is wrong. Thank you.jerry_{May 16, 2020
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This is how well France is handling COVID-19, the home of your “miracle cure”. Coronavirus Cases: 179,506 Deaths: 27,529 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/rhampton7_{May 16, 2020
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Your numbers do not match reality
Yes they do. Your numbers are the realities of the blind man who cannot see but there are the realities for those who can see. All the numbers from all your posts reflect a blindness. They reflect a world without treatment. With effective treatments the reality changes and my numbers are then real. In fact they may actually go down. Based on your numbers there will be a million dead in the US from the virus and maybe millions more from other reasons. Based on my numbers there should be no more than 100,000 and probably less and few dead from economic consequences. So the blind see a million+ dead in the US but those with a different vision see 900,000 still alive that you would see die. Extrapolated to the world and it becomes several million still living under the different vision. As opposed to the doom and gloom who only see tens of million dead.jerry_{May 16, 2020
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There are now six grocery stores with COVID-19 outbreaks in Colorado. Data released from the Colorado Department of Health and Environment (CDPHE) on Wednesday shows 67 confirmed COVID-19 staff cases in grocery stores throughout Colorado, four probable staff cases and three deaths. The three deaths were among staff members at a Walmart in Aurora. https://www.9news.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/costco-walmart-among-grocery-store-covid-19-outbreaks/73-bde0be4d-e1e3-41f1-a56d-8cf2356d6dderhampton7_{May 15, 2020
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Mr. LaLima had never stopped cutting hair, despite Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo’s order. But he was not doing it in his shop; he was doing in the privacy of his home — in the back of the shop. Joseph LaLima was hospitalized for the coronavirus for four days. . Some of the county’s 55 disease investigators are now trying to trace those customers. According to the barber, many of his clients were police officers and firefighters, whose hair he cut for free. “I did them a favor!” Mr. LaLima said. “And I didn’t give it to anybody else. I got it from somebody that came into my shop.” The coronavirus has killed 31 people in Ulster County, and more than 1,400 people have been infected. Eleven people are currently hospitalized in the county, and health officials fear that some of Mr. LaLima’s clients may be next. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/15/nyregion/barber-virus-kingston-ny.htmlrhampton7_{May 15, 2020
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A day after Johnson County, MO Health Department officials announced the county’s first workplace cluster of COVID-19 cases, officials at shipping giant FedEx confirmed their Olathe distribution plant as the location of the cluster. Johnson County Department of Health and Environment Director Dr. Sanmi Areola added that his department expects “quite a few outbreaks” like the one announced Thursday as businesses reopen. https://www.kshb.com/news/coronavirus/fexex-confirms-olathe-distribution-plant-covid-19-clusterrhampton7_{May 15, 2020
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Your numbers do not match reality. And then there’s this: Five sailors on the aircraft carrier sidelined in Guam due to a COVID-19 outbreak have tested positive for the virus for the second time and have been taken off the ship, according to the Navy. All five sailors had previously tested positive and had gone through at least two weeks of isolation. As part of the process, they all had to test negative twice in a row, with the tests separated by at least a day or two before they were allowed to go back to the ship. In a statement Friday, the Navy said that, while onboard, the five sailors self-monitored and adhered to strict social distancing protocols. As of Thursday, more than 2,900 sailors have reboarded the ship, and about 25% of the more than 1,000 who had tested positive have now recovered, according to the Navy. https://ktxs.com/news/nation-world/sailors-on-sidelined-carrier-get-virus-for-second-timerhampton7_{May 15, 2020
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How do you get 100 deaths?
Should be 1200. Oklahoma has 4 million people. .03% (What Todaro estimates based on current results of using HCQ and zinc) of that is approximately 1200. Most would be high risk elderly patients with at least one comorbidity. Applying to US it would mean about 100,000 deaths total. Already approaching that with lockdown, social distancing and masks.jerry_{May 15, 2020
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According to the U.S. Census Bureau, as of 2015, the state of Oklahoma has an estimated population of 3,911,338. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Oklahoma Currently there are 5000 infected Oklahomans of which 285 have died. If herd inmunity for COVID-19 is 50%, then 1,995,000 Oklahomans still need to be infected. How do you get 100 deaths?rhampton7_{May 15, 2020
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The upshot: The U.S. as a whole is not yet close to achieving even the speculatively low estimate of the herd immunity threshold.
But they would if they didn’t wear masks or socially distance and the economy didn’t have a lockdown. If there is a simple effective treatment then it would achieved quickly with out disrupting the economy. Think of all the lives that would be saved.
the number of virus-related deaths increased to 285.
Imagine if they had used an effective treatment, all those lives would have been saved.jerry_{May 15, 2020
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As of Friday, May 15, the Oklahoma State Department of Health reported there are 5,086 confirmed positive coronavirus cases in the state, and that the number of virus-related deaths increased to 285. https://www.koco.com/article/oklahoma-coronavirus-cases-top-5000-285-deaths-reported/32495362rhampton7_{May 15, 2020
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Until there is an effective COVID-19 vaccine, the only way to achieve herd immunity would be to allow the microbe to infect enough people to form that barrier protecting the susceptible. The breadth of the barrier required to achieve herd immunity depends in large part on just how contagious a specific disease is. For example: In a susceptible, unvaccinated population, each measles carrier will infect an estimated 12 to 18 other people. In the nomenclature of epidemiology, the basic reproduction number or R0 ("R naught") of measles is 12 to 18. The classical formula for calculating a herd immunity threshold is 1—1/R0. With measles, that means 1—1/18, or a threshold of 94 percent. In general, the higher the R0, the higher the threshold required for achieving herd immunity. Other important factors in calculating herd immunity thresholds include the number of social interactions and their durations, innate differences in individual immune responses, and divergent exposures to the infectious microbe. There are no solid estimates for the percentage of the U.S. population that has already been infected by the coronavirus, but Youyang Gu and his team at COVID19-Projections estimate that right now the number is between 2.2 to 4.7 percent. That would mean that somewhere between 7.3 and 15.5 million Americans have been infected. A similar result emerges from a very rough calculation that multiplies the number of confirmed cases at 1.4 million by a 10-fold factor of undiagnosed cases and infections. (The 10-fold factor is derived from data recently reported by Indiana University researchers.) The upshot: The U.S. as a whole is not yet close to achieving even the speculatively low estimate of the herd immunity threshold. https://reason.com/2020/05/15/whats-the-herd-immunity-threshold-for-the-covid-19-coronavirus/rhampton7_{May 15, 2020
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Bratzler took a much more modest fatality rate – 0.3%. Assuming 80% of Oklahomans needed to be infected to achieve herd immunity, that means nearly 10,000 Oklahomans would die
Todaro estimates .03% or about 1/100 of what Bratzler estimates. This would make it extremely manageable to reach herd immunity. So about 100 people would die In Oklahoma probably with comorbidities.jerry_{May 15, 2020
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Thousands of professionals disagree with you.
Thousands of professionals agree there is an effective treatment that affects the virus itself or disrupts the pathways the virus uses to create pathologies A new one appeared today. So they disagree with the assessment of your expertsjerry_{May 15, 2020
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Dr. Dale Bratzler, enterprise chief quality officer for OU Medicine, told KOCO 5 there’s two ways people can get herd immunity – with a vaccine and without one. “ I’ve been trying to reduce some of the myths out there on Facebook and other places where you see people say, ‘Let’s just let everybody get infected and go on.’ But I don’t think they recognize the significant toll it would have on Oklahomans to do that,” Bratzler said. Right now, about 6% of confirmed cases in Oklahoma end in death. Bratzler took a much more modest fatality rate – 0.3%. Assuming 80% of Oklahomans needed to be infected to achieve herd immunity, that means nearly 10,000 Oklahomans would die. If 1% of COVID-19 cases were fatal, a rate Bratzler thinks is likely, that number would jump to 32,000 Oklahomans dead. https://www.koco.com/article/ou-medicine-expert-works-to-dispel-myths-of-herd-immunity-floating-online/32454489rhampton7_{May 15, 2020
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EG “Especially if it allows us to speed up the opening of the economy. “My prediction is that when games resume, it will be the leagues that impose wearing masks and keeping concessions closed.“ Yes that is exactly my point so wearing masks will allow a reopening of the economy however the economy ,even though open, will not see demand because millions will lose their jobs because everyone will be required to wear masks. So to say they will allow the economy to speed up reopening is pretty meaningless if by reopening a business is assured it will go out of business and millions will have no jobs to go back to. Doesn’t make much sense to me. Vividvividbleau_{May 15, 2020
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Without A Vaccine, Herd Immunity Won’t Save Us But getting to herd immunity without a vaccine isn’t as simple as the idea itself. A number of variables can affect when herd immunity is reached — and what it costs to get there — and they vary depending on the disease. How infectious is the disease? How deadly is it? And how long do people stay immune once they’ve gotten it? Adjusting any of these variables can drastically change the outcome of this equation. You can probably sense where this is heading. We’ve built a very simplified version of how those variables interact. (You’ll see just how simple in the methodology beneath the simulator.) To be clear, this is not about COVID-19 itself — instead, our calculator shows how a theoretical disease we’re calling Fictionitis would play out in a population that has never encountered it before and does nothing to try to stop it. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/without-a-vaccine-herd-immunity-wont-save-us/ An interactive calculator is at the link aboverhampton7_{May 15, 2020
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