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Pass me a Corona! II

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The comments to the original Pass me a Corona! post are closed. Additional comments on that topic should be posted below. I will start this post with PaV’s last comments to the prior post [i.e., everything that follows is PaV, not Barry].

Today the paywall for a Spectator USA article has been lifted. The article is by a retired pathologist who worked as a pathologist for the NHS in the UK, Dr. John Lee. I mentioned his article yesterday.

Every point he makes parallels arguments I’ve made here, though not so much the time period of death–though this, too, parallels a concern over “excess deaths.”

Here are some relevant comments:

The distinction between dying ‘with’ COVID-19 and dying ‘due to’ COVID-19 is not just splitting hairs. Consider some examples: an 87-year-old woman with dementia in a nursing home; a 79-year-old man with metastatic bladder cancer; a 29-year-old man with leukemia treated with chemotherapy; a 46-year-old woman with motor neurone disease for two years. All develop chest infections and die. All test positive for COVID-19. Yet all were vulnerable to death by chest infection from any infective cause (including the flu). COVID-19 might have been the final straw, but it has not caused their deaths.

Here’s a comment that might well be directed at the deaths we see coming out of Italy and Spain. Are these deaths due to a variety of causes but simply attributed, blindly, to the SARS-CoV-2 virus?

Next, what about the deaths? Many UK health spokespersons have been careful to repeatedly say that the numbers quoted in the UK indicate death with the virus, not death due to the virus — this matters. When giving evidence in parliament a few days ago, Prof. Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London said that he now expects fewer than 20,000 COVID-19 deaths in the UK but, importantly, two-thirds of these people would have died anyway. In other words, he suggests that the crude figure for ‘COVID deaths’ is three times higher than the number who have actually been killed by COVID-19. (Even the two-thirds figure is an estimate — it would not surprise me if the real proportion is higher.)

If we take Ferguson literally, does this mean that the actual number of deaths worldwide due to SARS-CoV-2 is not 35,000, but around 12,000? Will we ever know? The people responsible for finding this out are the same people who might have been gigantically wrong about their numbers. What would be their motivation to prove how incompetent they were?

It should be noted that there is no international standard method for attributing or recording causes of death. Also, normally, most respiratory deaths never have a specific infective cause recorded, whereas at the moment we can expect all positive COVID-19 results associated with a death to be recorded. Again, this is not splitting hairs. Imagine a population where more and more of us have already had COVID-19, and where every ill and dying patient is tested for the virus. The deaths apparently due to COVID-19, the COVID trajectory, will approach the overall death rate. It would appear that all deaths were caused by COVID-19 — would this be true? No. The severity of the epidemic would be indicated by how many extra deaths (above normal) there were overall.

Let me point out that this very problem is what has been going on now for over thirty years in the case of HIV. This is exactly how HIV/AIDS is defined. And Dr. John Lee says this is wrong. He’s a pathologist. So, Dr. Fauci, in charge of HIV/AIDS for over thirty years has been employing a definition for HIV/AIDS that is wrong, not true. Is it any wonder, then, that we are in this quandry?

Today, Fauci is quoted as saying that the number of deaths he expects from CoVid-19 is between 100,000 and 200,000. No way that is going to happen. Are the blind leading the blind?

Here’s a fresh perspective on numbers:

Let me finish with a couple of examples. Colleagues in Germany feel sure that their numbers are nearer the truth than most, because they had plenty of testing capacity ready when the pandemic struck. Currently the death rate is 0.8 percent in Germany. If we assume that about one-third of the recorded deaths are due to COVID-19 and that they have managed to test a third of all cases in the country who actually have the disease (a generous assumption), then the death rate for COVID-19 would be 0.08 percent. That might go up slightly, as a result of death lag. If we assume at present that this effect might be 25 percent (which seems generous), that would give an overall, and probably upper limit, of death rate of 0.1 percent, which is similar to seasonal flu.</blockquote. Let’s note that 0.08% is less than the mortality of seasonal flu. That’s how this entire thread started. Is the Deep State at work again?

This thread began on March 18th. Total number dead on that date: 150. Twelve days later–almost two weeks, the number is 2613. So, 2,470 people died in an almost two week period.

And how many have died of seasonal flu since Feb 28th? 4,000–as of March 19th.

We’re being had.

Comments
This is an article from the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons. You'll find that my analysis is very similar to this doctor's views. As to the actual CFR for this virus, here are two articles. The first is from the Lancet, and gave the number for the CFR as being 0.66%. A very recent reexamination of their numbers based on further testing indicates that tens of millions of people have been infected world-wide, with the concomitant result that the CFR is likely, like the swine flu, going to be around 0.02%. What has happened will not hold up to scrutiny. Meanwhile, we have videos showing Dr. Fauci give the thumbs up, in one case, and waving in the other, to partisan journalists. Just what, exactly, are Dr. Fauci's politics? Just what has been going? My question from the beginning.PaV
April 9, 2020
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@435 ET:
Why isn’t Ed George harping on them?
Because he is an indoctrinated crétin that does not understand survival of the fittest.Truthfreedom
April 5, 2020
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Again, Canada has rich people. Why aren't they stepping up to help their country? Why isn't Ed George harping on them?ET
April 5, 2020
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What do you mean, any possible misinterpretation was cleared up yesterday with Navvaros announcement !! What can be more clear than that? Really unbelievable.
What is clear is that 3M is not shipping masks to Canada. The advisor may be correct, but this wouldn’t be the first time that Trump ignored his advisors. Living in Canada, I honestly hope you are correct. But I do find it strange that both Canada and Mexico announce that they are prepared to follow the trade agreement immediately. Trump
"We need the masks. We don't want other people getting it. ... If people don't give us what we need for our people, we're going to be very tough, and we've been very tough."
If Canada will receive the masks, why is Trudeau trying to arrange a call with Trump to ask him to release the masks?Ed George
April 5, 2020
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Vivid, Once again, I appreciate the kind words. You set a good example by encouraging the rest of us to focus on finding the truth, without inflaming tensions, something I need to aspire to.daveS
April 5, 2020
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As we get ours and then Canada and Mexico will get theirs. But liberals are just too tarded to grasp that.
Every randomly-assembled bag of chemicals for itself! :) Too bad that naturalists do understand their own (self-refuting by the way) philosophy. Where in that ToE says people have to share resources? My resources help me to spread my genes (except when I abort the foetus, of course. No baby, no genes.)Truthfreedom
April 5, 2020
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DaveS No I thank you! We disagree but as I have told you before I respect you even though I know we probably disagree on many things. The one thing you are not is your not intellectually dishonest you have set an example for me to follow so once again “thank you” Vividvividbleau
April 5, 2020
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Vivid, After looking at a few more sources, I believe you are correct and I am wrong. I didn't find a White House response to the 3M claim until just now:
“All we get from the C.E.O. on down to the head of their P.R. department is lie upon lie, the latest of which — which is dead wrong — is that we demanded 3M not send production from its U.S. plants to our friends and allies in Canada and Mexico,” Mr. Navarro said.
Thank you.daveS
April 4, 2020
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EG “If it was an innocent misinterpretation why has Trump not cleared it up with 3M or Trudeau?“ What do you mean, any possible misinterpretation was cleared up yesterday with Navvaros announcement !! What can be more clear than that? Really unbelievable. Vividvividbleau
April 4, 2020
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What is really sad is Ed George spouting off on things he clearly doesn't understand. You are just an inciteful punk, Ed. Trump doesn't have to clear up your strawman, Ed. Grow up.ET
April 4, 2020
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VB, I agree that there may be misinterpretations. But if there are, it would be by 3M, not Trudeau or Ford. Based on Trump’s order 3M stopped shipments to Canada. If it was an innocent misinterpretation why has Trump not cleared it up with 3M or Trudeau? What is really sad is that a country that has jailed two Canadians in retaliation for Canada arresting one of their citizens over a US extradition order is the country that is helping Canada fill their PPE needs.Ed George
April 4, 2020
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Reading for comprehension has never been a strong suit of Trump's detractors.ET
April 4, 2020
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Let's see- the CEO of 3M is upset with Trump for pushing for more masks to be made. Trudy never liked Trump. And as a politician, lying is a thing. That said, Trump has ALWAYS maintained America FIRST. Always. So we get ours and then Canada and Mexico will get theirs. But liberals are just too tarded to grasp that. They are like little impatient people waiting to point fingers instead of understanding the situation and finding solutions. They have billionaires in Canada. Why aren't they helping out their country?ET
April 4, 2020
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DaveS “and that it will not interfere with the ability of manufacturers to export personal protection equipment (PPE) “when doing so is consistent with United States policy.” Did you miss this part? Vividvividbleau
April 4, 2020
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DaveS “I’ll have to do more checking, but it seems many news sources as well as Trudeau and Ford interpreted the order to mean halting 3M’s exports of masks to Canada. I admit I could be wrong, however“ Ahhh yeh news sources I don’t trust one thing coming out of the news sources. Vividvividbleau
April 4, 2020
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The order referred to here:
President Trump announced Friday evening that he is invoking the Defense Production Act (DPA) to prevent the export of surgical masks and gloves outside of the country. The White House said the order is intended to prevent “war profiteers” from hoarding supplies to generate foreign demand and then exporting the goods, and that it will not interfere with the ability of manufacturers to export personal protection equipment (PPE) “when doing so is consistent with United States policy.”
daveS
April 4, 2020
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DaveS “Do you think Trudeau and Ford also misinterpreted the president’s order?“ So we have Truedeau responding to a report from MMM that the govt was going to restrict masks to Canada and the narrative now morphs into “did Truedeau misinterpret the Presidents order“ What order? Truedeau was responding to MMM claims. Sheesh Vividvividbleau
April 4, 2020
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Vivid, Well, you did ask who you should believe, your ears or 3M! I'll have to do more checking, but it seems many news sources as well as Trudeau and Ford interpreted the order to mean halting 3M's exports of masks to Canada. I admit I could be wrong, however.daveS
April 4, 2020
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DaveS
Do you think Trudeau and Ford also misinterpreted the president’s order?
Not likely. If they misinterpreted it why would Trudeau be talking to various levels in the Trump admin to try to get the masks that Canada ordered and paid for? Why would he talk about not retaliating? Why would he talk about shipments coming from China but not from the US? https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5522003Ed George
April 4, 2020
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So nothing directly from the White House. Got it. :roll:ET
April 4, 2020
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DaveS This not about trust it’s about facts Dave Vividvividbleau
April 4, 2020
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Vivid, I would trust the CEO of 3M over Trump, quite frankly. Here's part of an AP story:
Late Friday, the president announced that he will direct the Federal Emergency Management Agency to prevent the export of N95 masks, surgical gloves and other medical protective gear. He said exceptions might be made to help Italy and Spain, which have been hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak.
Do you think Trudeau and Ford also misinterpreted the president's order?daveS
April 4, 2020
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Anything from the WH that supports the claim, daves?ET
April 4, 2020
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DaveS In that article who claimed that Trump was restricting exports to Canada and Latin America? Vividvividbleau
April 4, 2020
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DaveS So I am supposed to believe MMM press release and the CEO of MMM rather than my own ears? Vividvividbleau
April 4, 2020
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Vivid, I could be wrong, but it does look like a change, based on this?daveS
April 4, 2020
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DaveS Hm, looks like they came to their senses? 3M will continue to export masks to Canada“ This reminds me of EG use of the word “promise” which after three requests he still has not documented when Trump used that word. To say looks like they came to their senses is to assume they are reversing policy. I have heard repeatedly from Trump on live TV saying that as t relates to foreign nations he feels that the US has a special obligation to Canada and Mexico Just like I saw what he said about his aspiration and hope to open things up by Easter, never once making a promise now it’s “ coming to their senses” as if this is some kind of change in direction. Vividvividbleau
April 4, 2020
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I hope this is true, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Too bad, because you would lose, as usual.ET
April 4, 2020
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Why do Republicans have to vote in the primary? Why doesn't Bill Weld just drop out? It isn't as if it's a contested race.ET
April 4, 2020
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DaveS
Hm, looks like they came to their senses? 3M will continue to export masks to Canada
I hope this is true, but I wouldn’t bet on it.Ed George
April 4, 2020
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