Dr Raoult Roars — new articles on findings and issues about HCQ + Cocktails for Covid-19

F/N: Let me also transfer a clip from a White Paper that was being challenged but has a solid core argument, with my lead-up: _____________ Let’s start from facts. It is now pretty well shown that HCQ etc are established drugs, i.e. their in vitro chemical activity is credibly going to carry over into the body. And, they are safe enough for side effects etc to be manageable. In fact until recently HCQ was an OTC in many parts of the world. Next, since 2005, HCQ has shown relevant in vitro antiviral effects as well as longstanding anti-inflammatory effects as are qhy it has been used for arthritis etc. In that context, it was recently specifically shown that it is active against SARS2 virus in plausible-for-body concentrations. Two plausible mechanisms, as MedCram discusses, are that it alters pH and shifts shape of receptors for the spike proteins and props open ionophores that enable Zn ions to get into cells in enhanced concentration; which inhibits viral replication. Azithro acts against secondary infection and also has some antiviral effects. Zn is well known for antiviral effects. So, we should not be surprised to find that there is significant experience showing that if administered early in the U/L trajectory of the disease, for people with significant risk . . . low risk people are not going to have much of a difference to make either way . . . it makes a good difference in outcomes. And it does so fast, viral loads drop sharply within a few days. This summary is from multiple sources over the past several months. That is what is being buried under an avalanche of irrelevant cases, built to fail studies [wrong age groups, too late in the disease process, not studying the cocktail etc are typical] and demands that unless an ethically and epistemologically challenged gold standard . . . please see the Tuskegee syphilis study . . . is applied results are worthless. Then there was the scare mongering about heart disorders, and yes, the risk — per people who were managing real cases and relevant cardiologists — was grossly exaggerated. It is such criticisms that are worse than worthless, they have fostered a climate of fear, misunderstanding and polarisation that has likely needlessly cost arguably hundreds of thousands their lives. Those who enabled that sort of disaster will never acknowledge the failure. Now, we see an attempt to snip-snipe against a summary paper. This is what the white paper they are trying to trash says, first:

[ White Paper on Hydroxychloroquine Dr. Simone Gold, MD, JD ] https://bit.ly/3eSfKiS . . . There is obviously a tremendous disinformation campaign going on in the United States of America claiming that HCQ is neither safe nor effective. This is quite remarkable for a medication that has been FDA approved for 65 years and having already been dispensed billions of times all across the world with only 57 serious adverse events (heart) noted by the FDA in their own database over the past fifty years. In many countries it is available over the counter, like aspirin and Tylenol. Nonetheless, with the negative pressure being applied, state Governors have ordered, through their state licensing boards that physicians stop using it, and pharmacists stop dispensing it. Their wording is often more cautious, but doctors are told that they could be charged with “unprofessional conduct” (a threat to their license) or be “sanctioned” if they prescribe. First we need to understand how prescriptions have been done for decades. Once approved by the FDA, any physician can prescribe any prescription medication in the USA, for any reason. 55 This is significant in that a drug is not approved for a specific diagnosis; a drug either makes it through the years-long approval process or it does not. That means a medication can be used “on-label” (the reason it was approved) or “off- label” (other reasons that have never received FDA approval.) It costs a lot of money for the pharmaceutical company to gain another “on-label” use, so once a drug is approved for any use, it is typically used for many reasons. Those additional reasons are called “off- label.” As a practical matter “off-label” use accounts for about 20% of prescriptions . . . . Exploiting the public’s understandable lack of focus on the non-distinction between off- label and on-label has contributed to the public’s confusion regarding HCQ for Covid-19. From the physician’s perspective if a drug is FDA approved and safe it is within the physician’s armamentarium. And from the physician’s perspective, is highly suspect that that rule should change in the middle of a pandemic and without any legislative discussion or regulation whatsoever, let alone sound science to support the same. It has never happened that a state has threatened a doctor for prescribing a universally accepted safe generic cheap drug off-label . . . . Hydroxychloroquine is safe as a matter of fact, as demonstrated above. It is also considered “legally” safe as a matter of law as it is FDA approved for 65 years and doctors have been freely prescribing it in all that time until Covid-19. Contradicting its own policy, we believe for the first time in its history, the FDA has made statements that have caused states to restrict its use. While the right to prescribe is granted by each state, the states are informed by the FDA, and in reliance on the FDA, here are examples of over- reaching by many states. [cases given] . . . . It bears repeating that to be FDA approved, a drug has to go through years of testing. To be FDA approved for 65 years is an overwhelming testimonial to a drug’s safety and efficacy. There is no need for additional government intrusion . . . . If the disinformation campaign regarding HCQ weren’t so complete, from the scientific journals, to the media, to the state medical boards to the FDA, this would not really matter. Individual physicians who are innovators and early adopters would have moved first, prescribing HCQ off-label, just as physicians already do 20% of the time, and it would have caught on rapidly. However, the disinformation campaign blocked off-label use, and now we are in a pandemic with a safe and effective drug that doctors inclined to prescribe and patients inclined to take, cannot access. As a result, not only are patients not being treated promptly, effectively, and safely, some patients die. And as the fear of the pandemic has overtaken the virus itself and it is impossible to change public and physician opinion quickly enough to save lives, we must make the medication available to the public directly . . . . Country by country data is also available and access to HCQ is strongly linked to lower mortality. 73 We can see that even very poor countries have much lower case fatality rates than wealthy countries, which of course, is typically the opposite of what we would expect of a respiratory disease that could end up in an ICU admission. Kazakhstan, Bangladesh, Senegal, Pakistan, Serbia, Nigeria, Turkey, Ukraine, Honduras … the list goes on. Wealthier democracies or countries with especially abusive HCQ protocols such as are doing terribly: Ireland, Canada, Spain, The Netherlands, UK, Belgium, France … Of note, Italy and Spain switched mid-stream and now HCQ is easily available . . . . The limitation or outright ban on HCQ worldwide has begun to crack. It will soon collapse because the evidence of its safety and efficacy is so overwhelming. The countries that have less flexibility to tolerate fatal policies have already reversed themselves. South of us, Honduras, Panama, Costa Rica have, or earlier had, made HCQ available. Brazil is trying but faces many of the same political problems as the USA. Some countries have started going door to door to facilitate its availability. 74 In Honduras their national policy now is: “The patient that presents for the first time to a First Level of Care facility, if so, treatment should be started with: Acetaminophen, Hydroxychloroquine 400 every 12 hours, Ivermectin, Azithromycin, Zinc …” 75 . . . . Panama reversed course regarding HCQ and many countries in South and Central America are following suit: 76 Evaluating new evidence around the therapeutic options for COVID-19, specifically the use of HCQ and the Lancet journal withdrawing its publication on this topic. The Ministry of Health communicates that Circular No. 118-DGSP is null and void, establishing directives for immediate compliance regarding the use of HCQ and / or azithromycin. Leaving the therapeutic option for prescription according to medical criteria. Soon we will be sending a treatment guide for Covid-19 patients . . . . In France, bewilderingly, the drug was banned outright. However esteemed virologist Professor Raoult continued his clinical trials and in his hospitals the mortality rate was 0.52% compared to the rest of France 19.12%. Assemblee of France (equivalent to Congress) called Dr. Raoult in for an “inquiry” because he has been such an outspoken advocate for HCQ. It turns out that his statistics were so devastating to the official French anti-HCQ political leadership, that the inquiry resulted in the French Minister of Health being forced to resign and now he being investigated, in large part due to his obstructing HCQ, which caused/led/contributed to the deaths of so many French citizens. 77 [--> note, her interpretation is overlaid on bare facts of resignation] Former French Prime Minister, health ministers to be investigated for pandemic response” A French court will investigate former French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and two health ministers following complaints about the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, Prosecutor General François Molins said today. Philippe, former Health Minister Agnès Buzyn and outgoing Health Minister Olivier Véran will have to respond to accusations of abstaining from fighting a disaster.

That’s what you would not learn from the avalanche of ill-founded critiques for months here at UD, and of course in our oh so wonderful major media. When this is over, there is going to be a terrible reckoning as part of the playout over the next 6 – 18 months. ______ KF kairosfocus

What would the Hong Kong flu's numbers of 1968-69 look like with today's population? I ask because I don't remember any panic and closings back then. And it seems very close in numbers. If we take away the moronic killings @ the nursing and veterans homes, that flu was more deadly. ET

F/N: Let me cite a current report, clipping from another thread, here by a prof of epidemiology at Yale . . . thanks Blastus: ______ https://www.newsweek.com/key-defeating-covid-19-already-exists-we-need-start-using-it-opinion-1519535 >>The Key to Defeating COVID-19 Already Exists. We Need to Start Using It | Opinion Harvey A. Risch, MD, PhD , Professor of Epidemiology, Yale School of Public Health On 7/23/20 at 7:00 AM EDT As professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health, I have authored over 300 peer-reviewed publications and currently hold senior positions on the editorial boards of several leading journals. I am usually accustomed to advocating for positions within the mainstream of medicine, so have been flummoxed to find that, in the midst of a crisis, I am fighting for a treatment that the data fully support but which, for reasons having nothing to do with a correct understanding of the science, has been pushed to the sidelines. As a result, tens of thousands of patients with COVID-19 are dying unnecessarily. Fortunately, the situation can be reversed easily and quickly. I am referring, of course, to the medication hydroxychloroquine. When this inexpensive oral medication is given very early in the course of illness, before the virus has had time to multiply beyond control, it has shown to be highly effective, especially when given in combination with the antibiotics azithromycin or doxycycline and the nutritional supplement zinc. On May 27, I published an article in the American Journal of Epidemiology (AJE) entitled, “Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High-Risk COVID-19 Patients that Should be Ramped-Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis.” That article, published in the world’s leading epidemiology journal, analyzed five studies, demonstrating clear-cut and significant benefits to treated patients, plus other very large studies that showed the medication safety. Physicians who have been using these medications in the face of widespread skepticism have been truly heroic. They have done what the science shows is best for their patients, often at great personal risk. I myself know of two doctors who have saved the lives of hundreds of patients with these medications, but are now fighting state medical boards to save their licenses and reputations. The cases against them are completely without scientific merit. Since publication of my May 27 article, seven more studies have demonstrated similar benefit. In a lengthy follow-up letter, also published by AJE, I discuss these seven studies and renew my call for the immediate early use of hydroxychloroquine in high-risk patients. These seven studies include: an additional 400 high-risk patients treated by Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, with zero deaths; four studies totaling almost 500 high-risk patients treated in nursing homes and clinics across the U.S., with no deaths; a controlled trial of more than 700 high-risk patients in Brazil, with significantly reduced risk of hospitalization and two deaths among 334 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine; and another study of 398 matched patients in France, also with significantly reduced hospitalization risk. Since my letter was published, even more doctors have reported to me their completely successful use . . . . Beyond these studies of individual patients, we have seen what happens in large populations when these drugs are used. These have been “natural experiments.” In the northern Brazil state of Pará, COVID-19 deaths were increasing exponentially. On April 6, the public hospital network purchased 75,000 doses of azithromycin and 90,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine. Over the next few weeks, authorities began distributing these medications to infected individuals. Even though new cases continued to occur, on May 22 the death rate started to plummet and is now about one-eighth what it was at the peak. A reverse natural experiment happened in Switzerland. On May 27, the Swiss national government banned outpatient use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. Around June 10, COVID-19 deaths increased four-fold and remained elevated. On June 11, the Swiss government revoked the ban, and on June 23 the death rate reverted to what it had been beforehand. People who die from COVID-19 live about three to five weeks from the start of symptoms, which makes the evidence of a causal relation in these experiments strong. Both episodes suggest that a combination of hydroxychloroquine and its companion medications reduces mortality and should be immediately adopted as the new standard of care in high-risk patients .>> And, Prof Risch continues: >>Why has hydroxychloroquine been disregarded? First, as all know, the medication has become highly politicized. For many, it is viewed as a marker of political identity, on both sides of the political spectrum. Nobody needs me to remind them that this is not how medicine should proceed. We must judge this medication strictly on the science. When doctors graduate from medical school, they formally promise to make the health and life of the patient their first consideration, without biases of race, religion, nationality, social standing—or political affiliation. Lives must come first. Second, the drug has not been used properly in many studies. Hydroxychloroquine has shown major success when used early in high-risk people but, as one would expect for an antiviral, much less success when used late in the disease course. Even so, it has demonstrated significant benefit in large hospital studies in Michigan and New York City when started within the first 24 to 48 hours after admission. In fact, as inexpensive, oral and widely available medications, and a nutritional supplement, the combination of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin or doxycycline, and zinc are well-suited for early treatment in the outpatient setting. The combination should be prescribed in high-risk patients immediately upon clinical suspicion of COVID-19 disease, without waiting for results of testing. Delays in waiting before starting the medications can reduce their efficacy. Third, concerns have been raised by the FDA and others about risks of cardiac arrhythmia, especially when hydroxychloroquine is given in combination with azithromycin. The FDA based its comments on data in its FDA Adverse Event Reporting System. This reporting system captured up to a thousand cases of arrhythmias attributed to hydroxychloroquine use. In fact, the number is likely higher than that, since the reporting system, which requires physicians or patients to initiate contact with the FDA, appreciably undercounts drug side effects. But what the FDA did not announce is that these adverse events were generated from tens of millions of patient uses of hydroxychloroquine for long periods of time, often for the chronic treatment of lupus or rheumatoid arthritis. Even if the true rates of arrhythmia are ten-fold higher than those reported, the harms would be minuscule compared to the mortality occurring right now in inadequately treated high-risk COVID-19 patients. This fact is proven by an Oxford University study of more than 320,000 older patients taking both hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, who had arrhythmia excess death rates of less than 9/100,000 users, as I discuss in my May 27 paper cited above. A new paper in the American Journal of Medicine by established cardiologists around the world fully agrees with this. In the future, I believe this misbegotten episode regarding hydroxychloroquine will be studied by sociologists of medicine as a classic example of how extra-scientific factors overrode clear-cut medical evidence. But for now, reality demands a clear, scientific eye on the evidence and where it points . . . >> I think there are a few questions to be asked and answered. KF kairosfocus

MMT, as soon as we see hospitalisation, we are too far down the U/L trajectory. This is yet another misconceived study and report. CV19 is fast moving and already as symptoms emerge significant lung damage has occurred. There is urgent need at that time -- outpatient stage -- for hampering growth of viral load and associated damage leading to the more destructive stages. Especially, emergence of a cytokine storm, which takes the immune system out of its proper limits and is potentially fatal. BTW, as synergy is a well known phenomenon, I would expect to see a full cocktail including Zn; absence tells us this was a hostile study set up under adverse conditions. Ivermectin, nevertheless, may help in hospitalisation, further down the U. That, too, is absent showing that this is not in close touch with the actual emerging developments. KF NB: On U/L trajectory, I suggest, fairly fast descent to a crisis; of course, early successful intervention may stop the descent and lead to early recovery from higher on the descending arm. If failed, flatline. The L modifies the simpler U I used before, to explicitly show this. Recovery on the ascending arm takes longer. Given evidence of significant, early lung damage, recovery may not restore former vitality. Other damage later in the course of this destructive disease may worsen that. That means, long term debilitation and vulnerability may be an onward result. kairosfocus

Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2019014?query=RP Mac McTavish

Yale epidemiology professor speaks out: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/media/hydroxychloroquine-could-save-lives-ingraham-yale-professor.amp Blastus

PS: I again highlight the infamous Tuskegee Syphilis study as a case illustrating ethics-epistemology concerns:

The Tuskegee Study of Untreated Syphilis in the African American Male was a clinical study conducted between 1932 and 1972 by the United States Public Health Service.[1][2] The purpose of this study was to observe the natural history of untreated syphilis; the African-American men in the study were only told they were receiving free health care from the Federal government of the United States.[3] The Public Health Service started the study in 1932 in collaboration with Tuskegee University (then the Tuskegee Institute), a historically black college in Alabama. Investigators enrolled in the study a total of 600 impoverished, African-American sharecroppers from Macon County, Alabama.[3] Of these men, 399 had latent syphilis, with a control group of 201 men who were not infected.[2] As an incentive for participation in the study, the men were promised free medical care, but were deceived by the PHS, who disguised placebos, ineffective methods, and diagnostic procedures as treatment.[4] The men who had syphilis were never informed of their diagnosis, despite the risk of infecting others, and the fact that the disease could lead to blindness, deafness, mental illness, heart disease, bone deterioration, collapse of the central nervous system, and death.[5][6][7][8]. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the men were told that they were being treated for "bad blood,” a colloquialism that described various conditions such as syphilis, anemia and fatigue. "Bad blood"—specifically the collection of illnesses the term included—was a leading cause of death within the southern African-American community.[2] The men were initially told that the study was only going to last six months, but it was extended to 40 years.[2] After funding for treatment was lost, the study was continued without informing the men that they would never be treated. None of the infected men were treated with penicillin despite the fact that by 1947, the antibiotic had become the standard treatment for syphilis.[9] Study clinicians could have chosen to treat all syphilitic subjects and close the study, or split off a control group for testing with penicillin. [--> see the gold standard fallacy, in the teeth of cumulative evidence otherwise?] Instead, they continued the study without treating any participants; they withheld treatment and information about it from the subjects. In addition, scientists prevented participants from accessing syphilis treatment programs available to other residents in the area.[10] The study continued, under numerous Public Health Service supervisors, until 1972, when a leak to the press resulted in its termination on November 16 of that year.[11] The victims of the study, all African-American, included numerous men who died of syphilis, 40 wives who contracted the disease and 19 children born with congenital syphilis.[12] The 40-year Tuskegee Study of Untreated Syphilis in the African American Male study was a major violation of ethical standards. Researchers knowingly failed to treat participants appropriately after penicillin was proven to be an effective treatment for syphilis and became widely available.[9] Moreover, participants remained ignorant of the study clinicians’ true purpose, which was to observe the natural course of untreated syphilis.[3] The revelation in 1972 of study failures by a whistleblower, Peter Buxtun, led to major changes in U.S. law and regulation concerning the protection of participants in clinical studies. Now studies require informed consent,[13] communication of diagnosis and accurate reporting of test results.[14] [--> I still have serious concerns here, given what we are seeing with CV19] The Tuskegee Syphilis Study, [is] cited as "arguably the most infamous biomedical research study in U.S. history,"[15]

kairosfocus

JVL, I am not "condemn[ing]" a person, kindly respect the right of innocent reputation. For cause, I did take a disciplinary action, after refusal to respect the different focus of a thread dealing with a very different and at least as vital issue: over the next 6 - 18 months, our Civilisation faces an existential crisis.. Threadjacking and resulting diversion are seriously out of order. (Where, kindly note, in 15 minutes one can launch one's own blog and post to one's heart's content. There is nothing to block even a PS that links what one has to say. That shifts the balance on using someone else's forum as your soapbox) On the topic here, for cause I insist on due respect for the cumulative evidence that conclusively shows that once administered early enough in the U/L trajectory of CV19, HCQ-based cocktails and related drugs show significant positive impact that often buys time for immune response to kick in. Where, Medcram and other sources give a cluster of plausible mechanisms for that; the conclusion is not one of blind statistics of correlation, reasonable causal mechanisms are on the table. I do take exception to studious unresponsiveness to such a body of evidence, to dragging out of needless controversy and to resort to drowning out tactics; especially, given what is at stake -- life. Further, as one trained in and regularly using decision theory in a sustainability context, I find that there is a gold standard fallacy that violates basic principles of evidence and inductive reasoning, leading to an unacknowledged ethics-epistemology crisis in medicine, science, statistics and policy-making. This, BTW, is directly relevant to the way ID has been mistreated and marginalised for decades in the teeth of evidence such as finding alphanumeric, algorithmic code in the heart of the living cell. These onward issues, DV, I will address in due course. KF kairosfocus

Kairosfocus: If you refuse to read what is buried in the torrent of distractive comments above then please go to Medcram. I'm not saying I agree with you or disagree with you! I'm saying don't condemn someone just because they post new stories which discuss a research study you disagree with. It is not the fault of the reporter. And BTW the Lancet study turned on a mountain of data and shaped international policy and media, until it collapsed. I'm not disputing that. I merely want to RHampton7 and myself to be able to post stories we think are pertinent without being condemned. JVL

JVL, If you refuse to read what is buried in the torrent of distractive comments above then please go to Medcram. And BTW the Lancet study turned on a mountain of data and shaped international policy and media, until it collapsed. KF kairosfocus

Jerry: RHampton has never reported or shared a pertinent study that was negative on HCQ. So he is sharing fake news stories. They address the efficacy of MCQ at some stage! You think they got the stage wrong. The studies discussed uphold your view! They are not fake! He doesn’t seem to understand the time course of the infection nor the group that are most affected. None of his reviews are of studies that are with the appropriate group at the appropriate time. It's not RHampton7 you are criticising, it's the researchers. They did some research, they got a negative result. You think they should have tried at a different stage. Fair enough. But no one is lying or presenting fake information. My guess is that neither you nor RHampton have ever watched any of the umpteen Zelenko videos. Otherwise you would not be defending RHampton’s comments. All I'm saying is that the information presented is not 'fake'. It's real. Your point isn't really that it's fake, it's that the researchers picked the wrong window. My experience with the reading of anyone who is negative on HCQ (on this site and elsewhere) is that they have little understanding of the issues involved or how HCQ is supposed to work. Don't shoot the messengers. I don't have a problem with the issues. I'm not saying you are wrong. I'm saying that you should not attack the people who are just reporting on research. If you have a problem with the research then discuss that and not the person bringing it to your attention. Since you have demonstrated little understanding of how the virus works and what would prevent it from spreading in the body, I would suggest you refrain from commenting on the pluses and minuses of something and just ask questions to try to understand what is going on. I don't recall saying much at all about how the virus works or what would prevent it spreading in the body. All I have said, and it was a long time ago, is that for me, personally, I put my faith in double-blind clinical studies. I am NOT commenting on the pluses and minuses; I'm just saying: it's all data. AND, if you're right, then the studies presented by RHampton7 support your view. I did ask how you would have chosen to conduct those studies different because, I thought, they had followed your ideas. I did not attack your view or say it was wrong. In fact, I asked you to specifically critique the studies, to point out the specific mistakes. Why can't we discuss the issues instead of accusing anyone who isn't clearly in agreement as an opponent? JVL

RHampton7 is just reposting stories about pertinent studies

RHampton has never reported or shared a pertinent study that was negative on HCQ. So he is sharing fake news stories. He doesn't seem to understand the time course of the infection nor the group that are most affected. None of his reviews are of studies that are with the appropriate group at the appropriate time. My guess is that neither you nor RHampton have ever watched any of the umpteen Zelenko videos. Otherwise you would not be defending RHampton's comments. My experience with the reading of anyone who is negative on HCQ (on this site and elsewhere) is that they have little understanding of the issues involved or how HCQ is supposed to work. You might want to read my long comment earlier this morning on various aspects of the virus as a starter to understand the issues. https://uncommondesc.wpengine.com/philosophy/covid-19-and-the-need-for-skeptics-in-science/#comment-707417 Since you have demonstrated little understanding of how the virus works and what would prevent it from spreading in the body, I would suggest you refrain from commenting on the pluses and minuses of something and just ask questions to try to understand what is going on. I suggest you start with the MedCram videos. There are 97 as of today. jerry

Democratic congress woman says HCQ saved her life Now what? ET

All the people saved by HCQ weren't actually saved by HCQ? Really? Deal with the science? You guys don't seem to grasp the science. Please find a mistake in the MedCram video update #34 ET

ET: If HCQ and zinc are ineffective, then someone should watch the video, read the science and point out their mistake: Science says HCQ and zinc are effective ET is just addressing the science. He's not attacking the person bringing issues to the forum. JVL

Kairosfocus:J ust because something in this day of agit prop is the dominant message does not mean it is anywhere near the truth; even when duly dressed up in the lab coat and published in say the Lancet. We're not saying it is true but it is data! You seem to want to attack the act of just sharing the results of studies! Why is that? If you think the studies were badly done or lies then address those issues. RHampton7 is not making things up. He did not carry out those studies. If you take issue with the studies then talk about the science and not the messenger! In fact, that dominance and the mouths it comes from may be a sign that it is most likely at best spin at worst outright gaslighting like the 1619 narrative driving a good slice of the red guards. BTW, that is a big clue, oh on pain of blame for spreading plague, lock down. Bang, riots pushing the marxist agenda and the you must lock down with police backing it is turned off like a switch. Which, materially contributed to a secondary wave. Then again so soon as others want to come out to work or pray or rally, lock down again. The cynical inconsistency is a key tell. That's crazy. RHampton7 is just reposting stories about pertinent studies. Instead of sling accusations of civilisation damaging attitudes maybe you should just deal with the science. Please. JVL

If HCQ and zinc are ineffective, then someone should watch the video, read the science and point out their mistake: Science says HCQ and zinc are effective ET

Jerry: The stuff RHampton reported on was fake news. Fake studIes in some cases and fake analysis in other cases. Why are they fake. They are done at wrong time and on wrong group of patients. That's not 'fake', you're just saying that it's the way you'd test the efficacy of HCQ. IN FACT, instead of saying it's fake you should be saying: they didn't follow the protocol I think works so no surprise they got poor results. There is no such thing as negative data; if anything, the studies sited support your view. But, they did say they instituted treatment a few days after symptoms were detected . . . when should they have instituted treatment? Present some if you know of any. No one has, certainly not RHampton Who has trouble with English. He seems not to understand the things he publishes or questions put to him. That's not fair at all! He's just finding pertinent stories and posting them. Don't shoot the messenger. You can critique the studies, you can post the results of studies that you think are pertinent but the stories are NOT 'fake' news nor is RHampton7 taking responsibility for the studies or their outcomes. JVL

JVL & MMT, scroll up, it is all there above. Jerry is right. Just because something in this day of agit prop is the dominant message does not mean it is anywhere near the truth; even when duly dressed up in the lab coat and published in say the Lancet. In fact, that dominance and the mouths it comes from may be a sign that it is most likely at best spin at worst outright gaslighting like the 1619 narrative driving a good slice of the red guards. BTW, that is a big clue, oh on pain of blame for spreading plague, lock down. Bang, riots pushing the marxist agenda and the you must lock down with police backing it is turned off like a switch. Which, materially contributed to a secondary wave. Then again so soon as others want to come out to work or pray or rally, lock down again. The cynical inconsistency is a key tell. KF kairosfocus

KF, I’m afraid that I have to agree with R7 and JVL on this. There may be a HCQ treatment that has some effect, and I certainly hope there is, but there have been numerous well designed studies that have shown that it is not effective as a prophylactic, that it is not effective at early stages of infection, and that it is not effective at late stages of infection. I’m afraid that your refusal to seriously acknowledge or address this data does not paint you in a good light. I’m sure this is not your intent and o look forward to you addressing the weaknesses of these studies. Mac McTavish

It’s all data. Data has to be interpreted of course but I think it should all be considered

The stuff RHampton reported on was fake news. Fake studIes in some cases and fake analysis in other cases. Why are they fake. They are done at wrong time and on wrong group of patients. There is no data that indicates that HCQ is not effective especially when combined with zinc when applied to high risk patients early in process. There is lots of data indicating it is effective. Present some if you know of any. No one has, certainly not RHampton Who has trouble with English. He seems not to understand the things he publishes or questions put to him. jerry

Kairosfocus: You and others have also been repeatedly corrected on the problem of taking data from too far down the U/L trajectory of the disease and posing that as though it discredits the evidence of effectiveness. Well, the two studies RH7 pointed out were based on interventions given a few days after the onset of symptoms which is what I thought HCQ supporters recommended! I'm interested in considering all information and data so that we know as much as possible. s at now, this matter is effectively conclusive, unwarranted controversy compounded by an ethics-epistemology fallacy, has needlessly damaged the credibility of medical research, administration and medicine in general. What? Even if the studies don't follow the protocol you think is correct it's still data! I suggest, the US is a continent scale country with the third largest population in the world, its statistics need to be compared with aggregate European statistics and even that is not a perfect analogue as the US depends on a much more intensive far-flung communications network. Fine, it is a special case. And there are sites where you can look up the US case rate and death rate per 1000000 population. US results are also affected by appalling decisions by local officials, esp in the general vicinity of the mouth of the Hudson. Bowling and batting results have to be judged by the state of the particular wicket and the weather Sure. It is much bigger than European countries. There are sites that break the US data down by states. Last, I am skeptical of rate statistics on a per capita basis as the dynamics tie growth rate to the mass of cases and networks into the pool of uninfected; i.e. absolutes. It's all data. Data has to be interpreted of course but I think it should all be considered. JVL

JVL, simply scroll up, the results are there with links, just buried in an avalanche of distractive comments. You and others have also been repeatedly corrected on the problem of taking data from too far down the U/L trajectory of the disease and posing that as though it discredits the evidence of effectiveness. As at now, this matter is effectively conclusive, unwarranted controversy compounded by an ethics-epistemology fallacy, has needlessly damaged the credibility of medical research, administration and medicine in general. I also note that the patently false Chinese information utterly warps global statistics. I suggest, the US is a continent scale country with the third largest population in the world, its statistics need to be compared with aggregate European statistics and even that is not a perfect analogue as the US depends on a much more intensive far-flung communications network. US results are also affected by appalling decisions by local officials, esp in the general vicinity of the mouth of the Hudson. Bowling and batting results have to be judged by the state of the particular wicket and the weather. Last, I am skeptical of rate statistics on a per capita basis as the dynamics tie growth rate to the mass of cases and networks into the pool of uninfected; i.e. absolutes. KF kairosfocus

On July 16, the coronavirus pandemic smashed its record for daily cases in the U.S. with more than 75,000 new incidents reported. The latest surge has been in effect since mid-June, and the national total surpassed 50,000 cases per day just before Independence Day. Less than a week later, on July 8, the U.S. tally for total cases crossed three million. The nation’s outbreak had grown exponentially during March, until settling into a plateau of 20,000 to 30,000 new cases per day by the beginning of April. Though the lockdowns issued by many states and territories began easing in mid-April, it took weeks for new surges to appear. Death rates, which lag at least a month behind case counts, are also beginning to rise in approximately 30 states and territories.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/05/graphic-tracking-coronavirus-infections-us/ JVL

Kairosfocus: And that is driven by obsession with overturning actually solid cumulative evidence that HCQ+ cocktails work as effective treatments for CV19. Shouldn't we be considering all the data? Why throw out studies that disagree with your opinion if they were run properly? Namely, that there is good reason to accept that HCQ+ cocktails are effective treatments of CV19. There is also good data that HCQ is NOT an effective treatment for COVID-19. Shouldn't that be considered? All of which seem to be part of the polarisation of our civilisation. Not every controversy is an indication of the eschaton. Sometimes scientific and especially medical situations are complicated and take a long time to settle. You've made a call very early, before many, many trials had been even started. You may turn out to be right but that's no excuse for being openly hostile towards contrary evidence. You ask us to have respect for the truth; aren't you attempting to dictate what is true and what isn't instead of staying open minded and accounting for new data? JVL

F/N: I now transfer here, RH7's threadjacking series of thread spamming comments on another thread for whoever is interested in pursuing such: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 4 rhampton7 July 17, 2020 at 2:21 pm (Edit) Unfortunately, the science behind HCQ/CQ is taking a back seat to politics, and being in the middle of a political debate today is difficult. However, that is exactly where Dr. White found himself when he tried to weigh the evidence for clinicians in a review in the Annals of Internal Medicine (2020 May 27. [Epub ahead of print]). The Annals review, a living document—which will be updated periodically as more data become available—assessed published studies about the use of the two antimalarial drugs for COVID-19, looking at the overall strength of the evidence by determining their risk for bias and comparing different end points. The reviewers found that evidence in support of their use for COVID-19 was weak, and there was insufficient evidence to recommend for or against these medications. In a commentary, Dr. White contrasted how his research group evaluated the various studies using recommendations of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the Cochrane Collaborative versus how the AAPS evaluated the studies (J Clin Pharmacol 2020 Jun 12. [Epub ahead of print]). Mostly, the AAPS cited anecdotal experiences, considering only the people who took HCQ. Rather than perform a statistical analysis, the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS) did a straight math problem to determine the medication’s success, dividing the number of people who were alive by the number who were treated. In one instance, a physician treated 399 patients with HCQ and two died; therefore, the medication was said to be 99.5% successful. However, Dr. White pointed out that without a control group, there is no way to know how many would have survived without taking HCQ or whether the two who died would have survived if they just received usual care. Agreeing that controlled studies are not the only approach, Dr. White explained that anecdotal evidence is among the weakest forms of evidence because it is “inherently biased “ and “extremely weak in terms of proving any kind of association.” He gave this example: Most heart attacks occur in the morning between 5 and 11 a.m., and coffee is a popular morning beverage. “You might believe that coffee is causing everyone to have heart attacks, but the truth is that is not what’s causing the heart attack. It’s just a cofounder that got thrown into the mix,” he explained. “The reality is that, in addition to the anecdotal experiences that they put together, we do have data from published studies that tell a very different story about hydroxychloroquine,” Dr. White said. https://www.idse.net/Covid-19/Article/07-20/Hydroxychloroquine-for-COVID-19-Yes-No-I-Don-t-Know-/59078 >>>>>>>>>>> 5 rhampton7 July 17, 2020 at 2:23 pm (Edit) We aimed to analyze the interactions of both hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine with SARS-CoV-2 and identify their possible role for the prevention/treatment of COVID-19 by molecular docking studies. Protein crystal structures of SARS-CoV-2 and ACE2, the compounds hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine, and other ligand structures were minimized by OPLS3 force field. Glide Standard Precision and Extra Precision docking are performed and MM-GBSA values ??are calculated. Molecular docking studies showed that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine do not interact with SARS-CoV-2 proteins, but bind to the amino acids ASP350, ASP382, ALA348, PHE40 and PHE390 on the ACE2 allosteric site rather than the ACE2 active site. Our results showed that neither hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine bind to the active site of ACE2. However, both molecules prevent the binding of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to ACE2 by interacting with the allosteric site. This result can help ACE2 inhibitor drug development studies to prevent viruses entering the cell by attaching spike protein to ACE2. https://www.docwirenews.com/abstracts/approach-to-the-mechanism-of-action-of-hydroxychloroquine-on-bsars-b-bcov-b-b2-b-a-molecular-docking-study/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 6 kairosfocus July 17, 2020 at 2:40 pm (Edit) RH7, this is not a thread about HCQ debates, please do not use it for further one sided newsclips. KF 7 jerry July 17, 2020 at 2:59 pm (Edit) Kf, You as an author should have the ability to remove comments. You could then post them on another thread so they do not get lost. 8 rhampton7 July 17, 2020 at 3:38 pm (Edit) KF, You said, “ In particular, in reaction to the evidence that Hydroxychloroquine-based cocktails, if administered early enough, can be an effective treatment?” And I responded by posting a critical review of HCQ **without** political bias. The author explains how their analysis is strictly scientific. Furthermore, the author reminds us of a well known truth, that anecdotal evidence is weak (not necessarily false, but not definitive by itself). 9 kairosfocus July 17, 2020 at 3:58 pm (Edit) RH7, the effect was distractive especially as there is a clear balance of evidence of significant effectiveness. So, you are actually admitting to trying to dismiss a correct point with misleading unbalanced critiques. Given the sobering cost of our failures to address associated ethics, epistemology and decision theory, lives needlessly lost, I suggest you will be well advised to reconsider what you have done. This thread in the main is about a much bigger challenge, the ongoing down-spiral of our civilisation’s politics into the abyss, and the considerations that even at this late stage might help us recover before it is too late. KF 10 rhampton7 July 17, 2020 at 10:24 pm (Edit) KF, you appear part of that downward spiral since you can not differentiate between political partisanship and good scientific research. What did you make of these two new studies? 1. In a study published yesterday in the Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers from the University of Minnesota, the University of Manitoba, and McGill University randomized 491 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 or probable COVID-19 and high-risk exposure to receive 5 days of oral hydroxychloroquine or placebo within 4 days of symptom onset. The aim of the study was to see whether starting hydroxychloroquine therapy within the first few days of symptoms could reduce symptom severity or duration and prevent hospitalization. “Hydroxychloroquine did not substantially reduce symptom severity or prevalence over time in nonhospitalized persons with COVID-19,” the authors of the study wrote. 2. In the other study, a multicenter trial conducted in Spain, 293 non-hospitalized patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections were randomized to receive either hydroxychloroquine (the intervention arm) within 5 days of symptom onset or no antiviral treatment (the control arm). The primary outcomes were reduction of viral RNA load in nasopharyngeal swabs up to 7 days after treatment, patient disease progression, and time to complete resolution of symptoms. The results of the trial showed no difference in the mean viral reduction load at day 7 ( –3.37 and –3.44 Log10 copies per milliliter in the control and intervention arm, respectively; difference, –0.07; 95% CI, –0.44 to 0.29). In addition, treatment with hydroxychloroquine did not significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization (7.1% for the control arm vs 5.9% for the intervention arm; risk ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.32 to 1.77) or shorten the time to complete resolution of symptoms (12 days for the control arm vs 10 days for the intervention arm; P = 0.38). “The results of this randomized controlled trial convincingly rule out any meaningful virological or clinical benefit of [hydroxychloroquine] in outpatients with mild COVID-19,” the authors wrote in Clinical Infectious Diseases. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/trial-data-support-dexamethasone-not-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19 11 kairosfocus July 18, 2020 at 1:09 am (Edit) RH7, you seem to be insistent on threadjacking. And that is driven by obsession with overturning actually solid cumulative evidence that HCQ+ cocktails work as effective treatments for CV19. This threadjacking on a pivotal thread in the teeth of warnings to the contrary calls for strong action. This rides on top of by now dozens upon dozens of spamming posts by you across many threads that try to do the same, constituting enabling behaviour for suppressing evidence that shows what you refuse to believe. Namely, that there is good reason to accept that HCQ+ cocktails are effective treatments of CV19. The needless controversy on this matter has likely cost too many their lives, through frustrating access to timely, cost effective treatment and painting a false picture of failure. All of which seem to be part of the polarisation of our civilisation. Accordingly, I will now strip the comments above and transfer them to another thread, where those who are interested in such futile onward debates may pursue them to their hearts’ content. KF >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Further spamming will lead to more drastic action. KF kairosfocus

Australia's second-largest city, Melbourne, went back into lockdown at midnight on Wednesday, forcing five million Australians to stay home for all but essential business for the next six weeks to contain a flare-up of coronavirus cases. State police were patrolling the city and setting up checkpoints on major roads to stop people heading out to regional areas and spreading the virus from what is now Australia's pandemic epicentre, with 860 active cases. "The window for police discretion is very small and is closing as the threat to public health and safety created by those breaching the Chief Health Officer's directions is too great," Victoria police said in a statement. Cafes, bars, restaurants and gyms which only recently reopened had to shut again. Police had no comment on whether anyone has been stopped or fined since midnight. "The rest of the country knows that the sacrifice that you're going through right now is not just for you and your own family, but it's for the broader Australian community," Prime Minister Scott Morrison said. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/millions-of-australians-back-in-lockdown-amid-melbourne-virus-outbreak-2260840 rhampton7

Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Arkansas is "fighting a trend that we see across the South and the Southwest." "We see our cases elevated in Arkansas and the simple lesson is ... this virus does not give up," Hutchinson said, speaking at a news conference in De Queen. "We have to continue to be very diligent. We have to be disciplined in this and continue with our strategy. If we let up for one second, it will come back and it will accelerate once again." Hutchinson has called on President Donald Trump to invoke the Defense Production Act to avoid a national shortage of test kits. Trump invoked the act earlier this year, but used it to order the manufacturing of ventilators. "We're not going to be through this until we get the vaccine," Hutchinson said. https://katv.com/news/local/this-virus-does-not-give-up-arkansas-governor-urges-caution-as-state-logs-751-new-cases rhampton7

Arizona reported more than 4,000 newly confirmed coronavirus cases on Friday — still the highest rate of infection per capita in the nation. Hospitals in the state are nearing capacity, with 88% of the licensed beds occupied and 89% of the intensive care beds filled. There are about 7,900 licensed beds in Arizona, and hospitals are prepared to increase that number by up to 50% if needed under orders from the state. Health Services Director Dr. Cara Christ said at a news briefing Thursday that the state is taking a number of steps to free up hospital space for new COVID 19 patients. They include providing cash for increased nursing home staffing and personal protective equipment, setting up a system where hospitals can connect with nursing homes and other facilities that have space and providing cash to boost that capacity. The state also has an entire hospital ready to reopen if needed to care for patients, and has identified three large sites that could quickly be turned into so-called “step-down” facilities that can care for patients that don't need acute-level hospital care. https://apnews.com/d2817bbc3f1dc812268501b8e07006f2 rhampton7

The stepson of Kentucky Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman tested positive for COVID-19. Coleman issued a statement Friday on her family member's diagnosis, the same day a mask mandate went into effect across the state. The mandate comes after two of the highest days of daily COVID-19 cases the state has recorded since March. Kentucky announced 333 newly reported cases and four deaths on Thursday. Essentially, masks should be worn in all indoor public places. They must also be worn outside if you can't maintain safe social distance of 6 feet. https://www.wlky.com/article/ky-lieutenant-governors-stepson-tests-positive-for-covid-19-no-one-is-immune/33280792 rhampton7

Facing a surge in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks, Netanyahu took responsibility for the decision to reopen the country a month ago after severe early restrictions were put in place to halt its spread. “We first went back to work, then we opened stores, malls, schools and restaurants. Lastly, we open event halls, clubs, bars and other places in which there are gatherings and close contact,” Netanyahu said Thursday night, according to a transcript provided by his office. “In retrospect, as part of the trial-and-error, it is possible to say that this last stage was too soon.” He added: “I take upon myself the responsibility for this step and I also take upon myself the responsibility to fix it. To this end, we have now closed places of social gathering in closed spaces. We will take other steps if necessary.” Netanyahu’s remarks accompanied the government’s announcement of a new financial aid package to assist workers and businesses impacted by the coronavirus. https://www.jewishexponent.com/2020/07/10/netanyahu-admits-israels-economy-reopened-too-soon/ rhampton7

The corresponding author is Dr. Marcus J. Zervos, an infectious disease specialist at Henry Ford Hospital and the Wayne State University School of Medicine, both in Detroit, MI. For their study, the team retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 2,541 individuals who received treatment for COVID-19 in Henry Ford Health System hospitals. Dr. Le explained that the average age of those who received neither HCQ nor azithromycin was significantly higher than those who received HCQ. Specifically, the average age in the group who received other COVID-19 treatments was 68.1 years, the median age was 71 years, and 64.1% were over the age of 65. In the HCQ group, on the other hand, the average age was 63.2 years, the mean age was 53 years, and 48.9% were over 65. Patients in the HCQ group were also significantly more likely to receive steroids in addition to the drug. While 78.9% of patients in this group received steroids, only 35.7% of patients in the other COVID-19 treatment groups did. “In addition, white race is a risk factor they identified, and it too was unbalanced,” Dr. Le added. In the group receiving other COVID-19 treatments, 45.5% were white, while in the HCQ group, 27.6% were white. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/does-hydroxycholorquine-cut-covid-19-mortality-expert-urges-caution rhampton7

Surveys of treating physicians https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/07/hydroxychloroquine-based-covid-19-treatment-a-systematic-review-of-clinical-evidence-and-expert-opinion-from-physicians-surveys/ Don't know if this has been discussed Blastus

Governor Greg Abbott on Thursday issued a new proclamation that suspends elective surgeries in hospitals in all of the counties within 11 of the state’s 22 trauma service areas. The new proclamation now includes all of the counties within TSA P, which is the trauma service area that Bexar County falls under including Atascosa, Bandera, Comal, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio, Gillespie, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Karnes, Kendall, Kerr, Kinney, La Salle, Maverick, Medina, Real, Uvalde, Val Verde, Wilson, and Zavala counties. “The State of Texas continues to implement strategies to help ensure ample supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients,” said Governor Abbott. “By expanding this directive to include the counties within these 11 TSAs, we are freeing up more resources to address upticks in COVID-19 related cases. The State of Texas will continue to do everything we can to mitigate the spread of this virus and support our hospitals and health care professionals as they care for their fellow Texans. We must all come together and continue to practice social distancing, wear a face covering in public, and stay home when possible.” https://www.ksat.com/news/local/2020/07/09/texas-gov-greg-abbott-limits-elective-surgeries-in-half-the-state-to-expand-hospital-capacity/ rhampton7

The gains the people of Louisiana made against Covid-19 in June have been wiped out over the past three weeks, Gov. John Bel Edwards said Wednesday. "We have a statewide pandemic. It's no longer one or two regions," Edwards told reporters in Baton Rouge. Louisiana's health department reported 1,891 new cases Wednesday, 95% of which are from community spread, according to Edwards. Data from Johns Hopkins University shows the moving seven-day average of cases in the state hasn't been this high since early April. https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html rhampton7

Opening a dead thread to comment on aspects of virus. 1 - A small but novel treatment approach to C19 that had good results https://bit.ly/328cCg2 One of the positive outcomes of all this chaos is that we may be able to treat virus infections much easier than in the past. 2 - Hospitalization rates are murky as many are now entering the hospital for treatments postponed either due to scare of catching C19 or that hospital would not accept them. Some include cancer and heart issues and are as normal usually older. Email from a doctor in Texas to a commentator on virus.

I sent you some stats from hospital. Overall, it's true that hospital admissions due to covid are up, but the patients are mostly quite old and have other significant comorbidities. There are plenty of beds. The ICUS are not overrun, but are at near capacity. Part of the problem (as you know) was the shutdown early on which delayed medical care for many. Once the restriction on "elective" procedures was lifted, many patients scheduled for those procedures and so are hospitalized. The other thing is that people really were not going in to the doctor or the hospital because of fear of covid, and now they are sicker from other causes that didn't get treated. I do know that the hospital admin is worried about complex surgical cases which might require ICU beds for recovery. My hospital has not reported any lack of PPE. The main worry i hear from people doing inpatient work is that patients can't have visitors/advocates. This makes it difficult for a number of reasons:

3 - Several countries are having good results with HCQ though they are not mostly from Western Europe or North America. Compare Panama with Costa Rica right next door. Panama abandoned HCQ after the WHO response to Lancet article. They paid a steep price. https://bit.ly/3eeq70j There are many other just as dramatic visuals from other countries. 4 - Florida posts it hospital bed status daily by hospital and county. So go to the horse's mouth for actual data instead of someone's opinion. https://bit.ly/2ZbaJxk 5 - A recommendation for a different approach in Canada https://bit.ly/2ZcBT6X RHampton may follow with the negative news but hopefully not. A lot of the negative reaction to any positive news about the virus is not actual negative news that is prevalent but is due a visceral dislike to Trump. The result is that some dwell on the negative. We see this on this site, in our personal experiences and in the press. And because of this personal distaste for another human, it is likely that tens of thousands have died. Hard to avoid that conclusion. jerry

At least eight Mississippi lawmakers have tested positive for the coronavirus after working several weeks in the Capitol, where many people stood or sat close together and did not wear masks. Among those who have acknowledged having Covid-19 are Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann, who presides over the 52-member Senate, and House Speaker Philip Gunn, who presides over that 122-member chamber. The state health officer, Dr. Thomas Dobbs, said Tuesday there are also at least 11 other suspected cases of the virus among legislators and Capitol employees. Dobbs said the rapid increase in cases is stressing the health care system, including emergency rooms. “My greatest fear is starting to be realized because there are people in ERs now across the state who can’t get a bed; they can’t get transferred where they need to go, and we’re sending them out of state,” Dobbs said https://www.courthousenews.com/8-mississippi-lawmakers-test-positive-for-covid-19/ rhampton7

A close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says it’s the Israeli public’s fault for the renewed coronavirus outbreak, pushing back at growing criticism of the government’s handling of the pandemic. “A large percentage of the public that didn’t listen to the instructions, didn’t wear a mask, celebrated in nightclubs and on roofs, at the beach and other public places is to blame for the situation,” Natan Eshel says in a statement to Israeli reporters. He also lashes out at businesspeople who have been critical of the restrictions on their businesses and what they say is a lack of financial assistance. “The government wanted to help but they didn’t listen to the rules. Now we’ll all pay the economic and personal price,” he says. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-july-8-2020/ rhampton7

In a paper published in Cancer and Metastasis Reviews and selected by the journal as the featured publication, a team of researchers from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Brigham and Women's Hospital propose that controlling the local and systemic inflammatory response in COVID-19 may be as important as anti-viral and other therapies. "Our team proposes using molecules made by the body called pro-resolution lipid mediators -- which are currently in clinical trials for other inflammatory diseases -- as a novel approach to turning off the inflammation and preventing the cytokine storm caused by COVID-19." Naturally occurring molecules called resolvins -- discovered by Serhan and colleagues at BWH in 2002 -- actively turn off inflammation. Panigrahy, Serhan and colleagues have previously demonstrated that resolvins and related pro-resolution molecules could play a role in preventing cancer metastasis and progression. This class of molecules are also currently in clinical trials investigating their use against other inflammatory diseases, such as ocular, periodontal, and inflammatory bowel disease. Now, the scientists suggest, they could be re-deployed for the management of COVID-19. "A paradigm shift is emerging in our understanding of the resolution of inflammation as an active biochemical process," said Serhan. "Activating the body's own resolution pathways with the use of resolvins and related pro-resolution molecules --which, importantly, promote blog clot removal-- may complement current treatment strategies while limiting severe organ damage and improving outcomes in COVID-19 patients." https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/bidm-rpn070820.php rhampton7

A French study was carried out on 55,000 patients treated "long term" with chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine They take chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine "for the long haul" especially for autoimmune diseases. However, his patients were no less affected by severe forms of Covid-19 during the epidemic, according to a French study released Tuesday. This work was carried out by Epi-flagship, a structure bringing together the Medicines Agency (ANSM) and Health Insurance, based on the latter's data (in particular reimbursement of medicines) and hospital medical records (dates d (hospitalization, diagnostics, medical procedures and medicines delivered ...). The study, conducted on nearly 55,000 patients, "does not suggest a preventive role for the use of synthetic antimalarials (PSA) in the long term on the risk of occurrence of hospitalization, intubation or Covid-19 deaths ”, conclude its authors. https://www.20minutes.fr/sante/2816903-20200707-coronavirus-patients-habitues-prendre-chloroquine-moins-touches-formes-graves-selon-etude rhampton7

The Hunt County (TX) Health Department has been diligently tracking individual COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic. It has become clear that some people who have contracted COVID-19 are intentionally ignoring quarantine requirements, and returning to work or participating in other activities outside their home — even when they are fully aware that they can spread the virus. Over a month ago, Hunt County set aside $25,000 to meet the needs of affected individuals with legitimate needs so that they would not feel compelled to leave their homes until they recovered from the virus. The Commissioners Court recently increased that amount to $50,000, and those funds are being administered by Hunt County Shared Ministries. Despite these efforts, some people who have contracted the virus have repeatedly and intentionally violated the quarantine rules, and left their homes — even after repeated and clear warnings that they were not allowed to leave their homes. This type of behavior is dangerous to the public health by any measure. On July 1, 2020, Hunt County filed suit against one such individual. The County is seeking a judicial order requiring that the individual in question by confined to their home until they test negative for COVID-19. The pleading was filed as a sealed pleading due to HIPPA requirements that individuals with COVID-19 not be identified to the public. http://frontporchnewstexas.com/2020/07/06/hunt-county-files-quarantine-lawsuit-against-covid-19-patient-refusing-to-quarantine/ rhampton7

Texas hospitalized more than 8,000 COVID-19 patients on Sunday, based on data from the COVID Tracking Project. That is a record for the Lone Star State. The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 grew by at least 5% in 23 states based on a seven-day average through Sunday, according to a CNBC analysis of the data. Among those states are Arizona, California, Georgia, and Nevada. Some hospitals in Florida have voluntarily restricted elective surgeries. Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez announced Monday he is ordering Miami restaurants to stop in-person dining. Florida had more than 21,000 news cases over the weekend. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/texas-sees-record-number-of-covid-19-hospitalizations rhampton7

The Israeli government endorsed the Health Ministry’s recommendations to shut down event halls, concert venues, night clubs, bars, swimming pools and gyms, in a bid the curb the spread of the coronavirus. Other measures approved by the government, all subject to a Knesset vote later on Monday, would limit crowds at restaurants and places of worship, and restrict public buses to no more than 20 passengers at any given time. Restaurants will remain open, but crowds will be limited to 20 people at a time indoors, and up to 30 people outdoors. Houses of worship will also be limited to 19 people at a time. Summer schools and camps will continue to operate for kids up to fourth grade. (Noa Landau) The Knesset has approved in second and third reading a law increasing the fine for not wearing a mask in public to 500 shekels ($145). Reopening tourism by August 'off the table' https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-coronavirus-israel-breaking-live-updates-july-1.8970693 rhampton7

With over 17,000 cases in the last 24 hours, India overtook Russia to become the third worst-hit nation by coronavirus pandemic. The total number of coronavirus cases in the country stood at 690,349, according to the tally published at 9.30 pm on Sunday by news agency PTI. India recorded the third highest number of coronavirus cases in the world after the United States and Brazil, according to the data released by John Hopkins University. The United States was the worst-hit by coronavirus pandemic. The deadly novel virus infected 2,852,807 people in the US. The death toll related to COVID-19 infection stood at 129,718 in the country. The COVID-19 tally in Brazil zoomed to 1,577,004. The country was under the nationwide lockdown since the last week of March to curb the virus spread. Several relaxations were made in the last three months to restart the economic activities. However, school, colleges, gyms, swimming pools were shut to avoid the spread. The international flights and metro rail have been suspended since in the last week of March. Two COVID-19 vaccine candidates — Covaxin, developed by the Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech International Limited in collaboration with the ICMR and the National Institute of Virology (NIV) and ZyCov-D vaccine by Zydus Cadila — had recently got the nod for human clinical trials from the Drug Controller General of India. Both have been approved for Phase II, III trials. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid-19-india-overtakes-russia-to-become-third-worst-hit-country-in-the-world-11593967115577.html rhampton7

All indications are that the reinstatement of Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) surveillance of coronavirus infected citizens since Thursday has been utter chaos. the Health Ministry has not merely been inadequately staffed to field all of the calls from citizens to verify or dispute the text they received. Rather, reports say that the Health Ministry did not even plan to have staffing to receive calls during night hours or weekends – with the weekend being the time period when almost all of the messages went out. A large volume of citizens have given stories to the media indicating that at the time they were told they came into contact with someone with the virus (time of supposed contact is the only information they are given) they were either asleep at home or alone in their office. Suspicions about accuracy of the Shin Bet tool and false positives is not speculative. In hearings before the Knesset Intelligence Subcommittee, the government admitted that 93% of those sent into quarantine by the Shin Bet did not become infected. Of course, it is possible that many of these individuals were in fact physically close to someone with the virus and simply did not get infected. However, many experts believe that the Shin Bet tool, even if superior to other tools in terms of identifying more potentially infected persons, has substantial holes in identifying false positives. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/shin-bet-surveillance-led-to-thousands-of-people-getting-covid-19-texts-633959 rhampton7

Mease Dunedin Hospital, AdventHealth North Pinellas, Morton Plant Hospital and St. Petersburg General Hospital had reached their maximum ICU bed capacities by Sunday, according to data published by the Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration (AHCA). The data showed five additional Pinellas County hospitals approached their respective ICU capacities on Sunday, with each reporting fewer than 15 percent of beds available. Overall, about 86 percent of ICU beds in Pinellas County were occupied. The AHCA's latest update was released as Florida health officials confirm a statewide surge in new COVID-19 cases, as well as subsequent hospitalizations. On Saturday, the Florida Department of Health (DOH) reported a new record increase in diagnoses confirmed daily, with almost 11,500 cases. Unlike other states, the Florida DOH does not release ongoing data regarding hospital and ICU admissions related to the novel virus. Governor Ron DeSantis called for changes to the state's reporting of virus-related hospitalization numbers at the end of June. In Pinellas County, where St. Petersburg and Clearwater are the largest cities, health officials have reported more than 8,100 total cases of the novel virus and 184 subsequent deaths. Pinellas County has reported one of the highest incidences of COVID-19 infections in central Florida. Only Hillsborough and Orange counties, where Tampa and Orlando are located, have confirmed higher case counts. Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, in south Florida, have seen the highest concentrations of COVID-19 cases compared to all state regions. https://www.newsweek.com/4-hospitals-fla-county-run-out-icu-beds-state-sets-another-record-new-daily-covid-cases-1515485 rhampton7

Eight weeks ago, the White House lauded Texas as a model for containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Now, Gov. Greg Abbott’s plan to reopen the economy has unraveled as the state struggles to contain one of the worst outbreaks in the country. The governor reopened before the state could adequately monitor the virus, health experts said, then ignored signs in late May that infections were beginning to run rampant. On April 27, Abbott said he would reopen the state in phases based on data and guidance from medical professionals, pledging not to simply “open up and hope for the best.” His advisers laid out four criteria to guide the reopening: a two-week reduction in cases, hospital capacity for all patients, the ability to conduct 30,000 daily viral tests and a goal to hire 4,000 contact tracers. Abbott, however, did not commit to following them. Only in mid-June would the state begin meeting its testing goal. It has yet to hire enough contact tracers or see a sustained drop in infections. He said the plan was designed to be applied regionally, with lighter restrictions imposed in areas with few cases, then overruled officials from large counties who tried to enact more restrictive edicts. https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/article/Once-lauded-for-its-COVID-19-response-Texas-now-15387005.php rhampton7

Thank you! Blastus

Blastus - that's the study discussed in the article you linked to @ 581. Bob O'H

Another study: https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext International Journal of Infectious Diseases Blastus

While it did not opt for full lockdown, Sweden took several steps to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. The researchers created computer models to measure the effects of these steps, including voluntary self-isolation by symptomatic people and those over 70, closing schools and other interventions. They then validated their results by comparing the models with Sweden’s death rate and compared Sweden’s results to other countries’. The researchers’ models anticipated that Sweden’s public-health mandates would result in 40 times more patients needing ICU beds than the number of ICU beds available before the pandemic. Voluntary self-isolation reduced this to five-fold, and the country essentially doubled its number of ICU beds as the pandemic emerged. That still leaves many patients without a bed, however, and yet the country’s ICUs weren’t overrun. That outcome – and the fact older patients in Sweden were several times more likely to die than to be admitted to an ICU – prompted the researchers to analyze choices that Swedish health authorities made about who would receive intensive care. “Analyzed by categorical age group, older Swedish patients with confirmed COVID-19 were more likely to die than to be admitted to the ICU, suggesting that predicted prognosis may have been a factor in ICU admission,” the researchers wrote. “This likely reduced ICU load at the cost of more high-risk patients dying outside the ICU.” “The key finding is that individual actions matter,” Kasson said. “If enough individuals stay home and take precautions when in the community, it can really change the infection curve. And we can’t let up now.” https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/GE2007/S00014/lack-of-covid-19-lockdown-increased-deaths-in-sweden-analysis-concludes.htm rhampton7

Nearly 80 per cent of the COVID-19 infections have been caused by the top 30 per cent most infectious people worldwide and there is a very wide range of infections that are still undetected, says Dr Lucy Li, a data scientist at the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub (CZB). While there are still individual super-spreaders, perhaps more important for this current coronavirus pandemic is the contribution of super-spreading events where large numbers of people congregate in close proximity, she said during an interview with an Amazon team this week. "The virus genome mutates at a fairly constant rate as it spreads across the population, even when it's spreading in asymptomatic individuals. That means that every time someone new is infected, the virus changes a little bit and that mutation happens at a fairly constant rate as it spreads," she explained. So even if we aren't able to test everyone in the population, as long as we know how quickly the virus mutates, we can infer the likely number of undetected transmission events between people who were tested. https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/health/30-individual-super-spreaders-caused-80-covid-infections-globally rhampton7

Is there any news from the Wakanda trials? They were supposed to have a cure by now... ET

The world’s closest known match to the Covid-19 virus was found seven years ago by Chinese scientists in an abandoned mine where it was linked to deaths caused by a coronavirus-type respiratory illness. An investigation by The Sunday Times has found evidence that China has failed to publicly share this crucial information about the sister virus to Covid-19, even though it is the strongest lead in the hunt for the origin of the pandemic. The “new strain” of coronavirus, which was discovered in the mine in 2013, has been stored for years at a virology lab in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where the Covid-19 pandemic started at the end of last year. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-found-covid-like-virus-in-2013-and-kept-it-stored-in-wuhan-lab-pg05t5zq2 rhampton7

Ghanaian Scientists will soon carry out clinical trials on the use of hydrogen peroxide commonly called hydrogen for preventing Covid-19. This was revealed in a letter the Scientists wrote to the British Medical Journal explaining the significance of their intention. Several studies have found Hydrogen Peroxide in a 3 percent concentration killed all the viruses within 1 to 30 minutes. Fortunately, viruses in the Corona and influenza families were found to be defenseless against the chemical. Gargling with hydrogen peroxide is known to reach the back of the mouth killing the bacteria and viruses there. In the clinical trial, the scientists will compare mouthwash and gargle with hydrogen peroxide and mouthwash or gargle with water only, in asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. Prof. Ayettey said the results of their “clinical trials and those being conducted elsewhere to establish efficacy, would be publicized for global information as key prophylactic measure to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection.” https://www.myjoyonline.com/news/health/ghanaian-scientists-to-begin-trial-of-hydrogen-peroxide-to-limit-capacity-of-covid-19/ rhampton7

Hospitals in at least two Texas counties were at full capacity heading into the July 4 holiday weekend, leading county judges to urge residents to shelter in place. Judges in Starr and Hidalgo counties sent out emergency alerts Friday, warning residents that local hospitals in the Rio Grande Valley were at capacity. In a public safety alert posted on Twitter, Hidalgo County, Judge Richard Cortez announced hospitals were at capacity and asked residents to shelter in place, avoid large gatherings, wear face coverings and practice social distancing. In the post, Cortez asked residents to celebrate the Fourth of July “responsibly,” and to “Conserve resources; ONLY call 911 if absolutely necessary.” https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/07/04/residents-2-texas-counties-urged-shelter-in-place-hospitals-reach-full-capacity/ rhampton7

According to a report released Friday by the Coronavirus National Information and Knowledge Center, which is overseen by the IDF Intelligence Corps in cooperation with the Health Ministry, most of the new infections in Jerusalem in the past week are concentrated in haredi neighborhoods. Until now, around 5% of people tested for coronavirus in the holy city tested positive. Last week, that number jumped to 7.4%. However, in haredi neighborhoods, the average is 17%. Moreover, the number of infected people is doubling every four days; nationally, the number is doubling every seven days. Strikingly, epidemiological investigations revealed that 72% of cases were infected within their nuclear families – people living in the same home. R e-opening more state-run “coronavirus hotels” and moving sick people or those who need to be in isolation into these facilities should also be weighed, the report recommends. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/coronavirus-burning-through-haredi-arab-areas-of-jerusalem-633876 rhampton7

If the world’s population qualifies as a control group in clinical trials, then why bother with smaller control groups at all?

There would be no need to if the relative information was available. We do exactly what you are saying hundreds of times each day. We use the world’s experience to guide our judgements especially in life saving issues. It is only in rare circumstances that a RCT is needed. No one needs a control study to show them the danger of crossing a busy highway without a stop light. It’s called common sense. Control studies are only used in very specific and rare circumstances and certainly not in cases where the person might have a greater chance of dying as a result. Why has HCQ been recommended? Because it had a good track record of fighting viruses in prevIous studies with little if any harm. But we had people all over the world misinforming people on this. Why? It was a logical choice but certainly not the only choice. Zinc has a proven track record of fighting viruses. It was a logical choice especially with research and experience showing it works better with HCQ. Have to look into selenium. But that is why I am here to get potentially good information. jerry

where is the ethical challenge to randomly administering a placebo to informed participants in a clinical trial?

The problem is in the word “informed.” My guess is no sane person would accept the placebo if they were really informed. So those who don’t really inform the participants without complete information are guilty of killing some of those on the placebo. Are you in favor of that killing? Remember there is no recommended treatment to rid the virus other than to ameliorate the symptoms till the immune system defeats it. It is obvious that the public is not informed because they are told there is no treatment and some of the treatments are harmful. They are being misinformed. Sounds like you are one of those misinformed people even with all the information provided to you. About half the public would not take HCQ. Why? They are being misinformed by the press and many medical personnel. RHampton roams this site misinforming readers here every day with mainly fake news. Just because it is in print does not make it valid information. jerry

MedCRam videos say there are established treatments. Weird... ET

If the world's population qualifies as a control group in clinical trials, then why bother with smaller control groups at all? If there is no established treatment for a given disorder - in this case COVID-19 - then where is the ethical challenge to randomly administering a placebo to informed participants in a clinical trial? Seversky

Kf, What you see on this site is very small microcosm of the outside world and which I commented on on your new thread on the American revolution. People generally complain against not advocate for. It is possible to always find something wrong or not perfect. But they never advocate for something better. Because in truth they don’t have anything better to offer. In Zelenko’s case you have a simple country doctor who got amazing results. And he is criticized as having useless data by not providing a control group in which people will die. Why? So that others can exclaim he did a good statistical test. How uncaring would such a person have to be? By the way Zelenko is a brilliant guy graduating first in his class at a large university while majoring in science But constantly complaining or belittling is what we see not just here but all over the world. We tend to focus on what is negative about our personal world or the world in general and not on what is good about our personal world or the world in general. If something a little bit negative happens to us that is our focus not all the good things that have happened. We are emotional creatures much more than rational ones. jerry

Jerry, it seems that we deal with people who cannot accept commonplace results of decision theory. We routinely characterise business as usual and its likely range of outcomes, then contrast a reasonable alternative, to guide decision and action. There is no need to construct an artificial no effective treatment baseline, especially with a fast moving, damaging, highly infectious killer. The do no harm principle is clearly at a steep discount and too many fail to reckon seriously with the ethical challenges of placebos. Why don't they respond to Rault's article on that, point by point? KF kairosfocus

Oh, I have looked through everything Bob O'H has posted and he is basically worthless. :razz: ET

OK, I’ve looked through the Zelenko study. It’s basically worthless, because they don’t tell us the profile of the control group,

It’s been explained to you several times that there is no need for a control group. The world is the comparison group. Essentially one has the entire universe as a comparison not just a small subset. Pick all the people in the world that were diagnosed with the virus and that match the demographics of the treated group and use them for a comparison. Remember the standard treatment is no treatment of the virus. Compare the hospitalization and death rates. The Zelenko death rate and hospitalization rate are amazingly low saying the virus is either no worse than the common cold or his treatment is amazing and causes it to act no worse than the common cold. Take your pick. One possible issue that my wife brought up is that the community for the Zelenko protocol was Hasidic Jews. There may be something different about this group and the virus. Which case they should be examined for why they are naturally resistant to the virus. Do they have an anti-body? Why? The medical community would be very interested in any group having natural immunity. jerry

F/N 2: Voice of experience? >> Writing Observer July 4, 2020 at 1:16 am @Crispin – when admitted, a patient gets a full blood panel as a matter of course. Any deficiencies (of whatever, not just D and zinc) would place the patient into the appropriate propensity grouping. Alternatively, these are early progression patients, presumably still able to eat. Hospital dieticians are worse than the strictest of parents; they will make SURE that what you are offered is “healthy” for whatever your medical profile is, thus correcting deficiencies. (They also have you captive – if you manage to not eat the disgusting glop on one tray, they will make the next one even more revolting to anyone with taste buds. Effective conditioning technique, there…)>> WUWT strikes again! KF kairosfocus

F/N: This sounds like a possible survivor: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/03/good-quality-paper-demonstrates-strong-efficacy-of-hydroxychloroquine-mortality-rate-cut-in-half/#comment-3027950 >> Crispin in Waterloo July 3, 2020 at 9:23 pm They get zinc from food. The surprise I had was that the HCQ worked as well as it did, given they did not supplement with zinc. That is quite an oversight. Don’t they read? There is also no mention of the level of vitamin D shortage, specifically they should test blood for the 1,25 form. It was me, I would take 400 mg HQ or quinine, 50 mg zinc and 5 times the daily recommended dose of vitamin D. Oh wait, that’s what I took. After starting I felt progressively better within 18 hours. Chronic vitamin D deficiency is major problem. The total cost of that treatment package is less than $50. If you get into serous trouble, add molecular hydrogen (from an electrolysis unit). Split the water (takes about 13 amps) to make a litre of combined gas per minute. Breathe that plus anything else you need – typically 10 l/min. You want ~5% H2. That takes care of the cytokine storm. All molecular details at the Molecular hydrogen institute, or MedCram. Free.>> KF PS: Of course, consult your friendly local health pro . . . kairosfocus

BTW, I am seeing a comment that Selenium promotes Zn bio activity. Ze plot thickens. Here, it looks like the key step is, eat a few Brazil nuts per day as part of the supplements package. KF PS: NIH on Se: https://ods.od.nih.gov/factsheets/Selenium-HealthProfessional/ >>Brazil nuts, seafoods, and organ meats are the richest food sources of selenium [1]. Other sources include muscle meats, cereals and other grains, and dairy products. The amount of selenium in drinking water is not nutritionally significant in most geographic regions [2,6]. The major food sources of selenium in the American diet are breads, grains, meat, poultry, fish, and eggs [7]. The amount of selenium in a given type of plant-based food depends on the amount of selenium in the soil and several other factors, such as soil pH, amount of organic matter in the soil, and whether the selenium is in a form that is amenable to plant uptake [2,6,8,9]. As a result, selenium concentrations in plant-based foods vary widely by geographic location [1,2]. For example, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Composition Database, Brazil nuts have 544 mcg selenium/ounce, but values from other analyses vary widely [10-12]. The selenium content of soil affects the amounts of selenium in the plants that animals eat, so the quantities of selenium in animal products also vary [2,5]. However, selenium concentration in soil has a smaller effect on selenium levels in animal products than in plant-based foods because animals maintain predictable tissue concentrations of selenium through homeostatic mechanisms. Furthermore, formulated livestock feeds generally contain the same levels of selenium.>> kairosfocus

Blastus, good stuff, I sometimes forget just how useful WUWT can be. KF kairosfocus

OK, I've looked through the Zelenko study. It's basically worthless, because they don't tell us the profile of the control group, so it's impossible to correct for any demographic differences. For all we know the control group could have a median age of 80. Bob O'H

JVL, that the Chinese authorities -- not exactly paragons of sound ethics -- are turning their military into vaccination guinea pigs, is suggestive. It seems their CV19 real numbers were frightening enough that they are willing to see the military as in a battle, with acceptable losses if sufficient combat capability is retained. This reminds me of the WW1 staff rule of thumb that you needed to follow up your own "creeping barrage" close enough that up to 10% of your actual casualties come from your own artillery fire. That, because if you are much further back, shocked defenders can come out, set up MG08/15's or the older MG08's and get to horrific work, causing dramatically higher casualties and breakdown of the attack. Of course, lack of mobile radio communications meant that apart from using air contact patrols dancing among the flying shells (and sometimes being shot down by same) with ID panels, the bombardment was going to follow a plan before the event. E.g. Vimy Ridge, 100 yds lift every 3 minutes. And even there the plan broke down with Hill 145 etc. With that backdrop, I infer the Chinese epidemic was far more devastating and threatening than the authorities admit. Also, that it likely damaged unit functionality. This reminds of the decision to rush units hit by Spanish Flu to France, given the German spring offensive of 1918. KF kairosfocus

RP, battlefield medicine has long had a mass casualty, triage system for sorting -- the root meaning, from French -- overwhelming numbers of wounded, to maximise returns to combat capability with side effect of saving net numbers of lives. In normal contexts, under ethical obligations of medicine constrained by scarce, expensive resources, triage identifies cases requiring urgent, massive intervention and is not embarking on a dismal calculus of who do we simply give palliative care and let die. Or worse, "help" to die. The issue of death panels is the undermining of core ethical commitments, with implications all too manifest from the case of what happened to medicine under the Nazis. KF kairosfocus

China has approved an experimental COVID-19 vaccine for use in its military after early clinical trial data suggested it was safe and spurred immune responses—but before larger trials that will test whether the vaccine can protect against SARS-CoV-2 infections.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/china-moves-forward-with-covid-19-vaccine-approving-it-for-use-in-military/ JVL

Here is an article I see today: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07/03/good-quality-paper-demonstrates-strong-efficacy-of-hydroxychloroquine-mortality-rate-cut-in-half/ Perhaps this is what you were already discussing as it references Henry Ford health care Blastus

@574 “Most importantly, the standards provide hospitals a framework for deciding who to treat and who not to treat if they are not able to care for every patient.” Sounds like the death panels they were so scared of a decade ago. Retired Physicist

RHampton does not understand the comments he posts. The Henry Ford report and Raoult’s reports are on different stages of the virus. So one should not try to compare them. jerry

“Now the Henry Ford study, while great news by itself, found that it could only lower the mortality rate to 13% “ Could only? That’s a 50% decrease! Vivid vividbleau

A reminder, on March 29 Raoult claimed to have treated 1003 patients with HC +AZ and only one sigle death. Now the Henry Ford study, while great news by itself, found that it could only lower the mortality rate to 13% — that’s nothing like the 1 in 1000 of Raoult’s miracle. rhampton7

Yup, if people don't follow the guidelines that is what we will see. The recent surge traces back to Memorial Day weekend and the protest riots. The surge was very predictable. ET

ET & JVL, there is no need for a side discussion please. KF kairosfocus

In an email to Banner Health employees on Friday, chief clinical officer Dr. Marjorie Bessel explained that, at the request of Banner and other health care systems, the Arizona Department of Health Services activated crisis standards on June 29 “for the first time in the state’s history and the first time any state has done this in the country.” Most importantly, the standards provide hospitals a framework for deciding who to treat and who not to treat if they are not able to care for every patient. ADHS’s decision comes as the COVID-19 outbreak increasingly taxes the state’s hospital system. According to data provided on the agency’s website, a record high 91% of Arizona’s intensive care unit beds are now in use, with 741 of the 1,540 filled beds currently occupied by COVID-19 patients. There are only 156 ICU beds unused in the entire state, DHS reported Friday, though that number doesn’t include additional beds that are available through the hospitals’ surge capacity plans, which both Banner and Dignity Health have tapped into. And 85% of all in-patient beds are full, including a record high 3,013 of 6,538 filled beds occupied by coronavirus patients; only 1,135 beds statewide are open. Additionally, 47% of the state’s ventilators are in use, also a new high, including 489 by COVID-19 patients. There are still 917 ventilators available in the state, according to ADHS. https://www.azmirror.com/2020/07/03/as-covid-19-worsens-az-is-the-first-state-to-enact-crisis-care-standards/ rhampton7

“ We’re now dealing with a major outbreak of coronavirus in Israel,” Netanyahu wrote on Facebook. “At the start of the week we were with a figure of 450 infected and today we’re at nearly 1,000 infected a day.” He said new restrictions that took effect Friday morning were necessary to contain the outbreak and called on Israelis to adhere to social-distancing guidelines, among them mandatory mask-wearing in public places. Health Minister Yuli Edelstein said that from a medical point of view Israel should be in lockdown again, but the government was also focused on the economic impact. “It is very clear that if you look only at the medical side, I would have closed everything yesterday and put everyone in quarantine,” Edelstein told Channel 12. https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-declares-major-outbreak-as-active-virus-cases-soar-past-10000-for-1st-time/ rhampton7

Raoult made very specific claims as to what his regimen would do. No one has come close to reproducing his results. Don’t take my word for it, go back and see what Raoult and his reports claimed. Go ahead. rhampton7

JVL:

You assumed the plague was caused by a virus.

No, I didn't. I laughed @ YOU because you thought the plague was caused by a virus. Unlike you I actually took both history and biology courses.

I did not say the plague was caused by a virus.

For over 500 comments people have been discussing VIRUSES. Comment 541 JVL brings up the plague. Anyone would assume JVL thought the plague was caused by a virus. ET

A surprising new study found the controversial antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine helped patients better survive in the hospital. But the findings, like the federal government's use of the drug itself, were disputed. Researchers not involved with the study were critical. They noted that the Henry Ford team did not randomly treat patients but selected them for various treatments based on certain criteria. "As the Henry Ford Health System became more experienced in treating patients with COVID-19, survival may have improved, regardless of the use of specific therapies," Dr. Todd Lee of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, Canada, and colleagues wrote in a commentary in the same journal. "Finally, concomitant steroid use in patients receiving hydroxychloroquine was more than double the non-treated group. This is relevant considering the recent RECOVERY trial that showed a mortality benefit with dexamethasone." The steroid dexamethasone can reduce inflammation in seriously ill patients. E li Rosenberg, lead author of the New York study and an associate professor of epidemiology at the University at Albany School of Public Health, pointed out that the Detroit paper excluded 267 patients -- nearly 10% of the study population -- who had not yet been discharged from the hospital. He said this might have skewed the results to make hydroxychloroquine look better than it really was. Those patients might have still been in the hospital because they were very sick, and if they died, excluding them from the study made hydroxychloroquine look like more of a lifesaver than it really was. https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-detroit-study/index.html rhampton7

ET: So anyone would assume YOU thought the plague was caused by a virus. So, you’re blaming me ‘cause you made an incorrect assumption. AND you did not call me out for incorrectly saying the plague was caused by a virus. You assumed the plague was caused by a virus. And now you can not admit you got it wrong. Someone had to point out you were wrong before you even knew you made a mistake. If the rest of us had decided to prank you and let you think a virus caused the plague you would never have known because you didn’t bother to check on your assumptions. I did not say the plague was caused by a virus. You assumed it was. You made a mistake. JVL

JVL:

That is clearly not the case.

It is clear NOW, but when you said it you said it in a discussion pertaining to VIRUSES. So anyone would assume YOU thought the plague was caused by a virus.

You assumed the plague was caused by a virus.

When?

You did not say I was wrong about it being a virus.

I LAUGHED @ YOU RIGHT @ THE BEGINNING OF MY COMMENT. Follow this, if you can: For over 500 comments people have been discussing VIRUSES. Comment 541 JVL brings up the plague. Anyone would assume JVL thought the plague was caused by a virus ET

ET: Oh my. JVL, YOU brought it up in a discussion about viruses. That means YOU thought it was caused by a virus. I was pointing out that the virus YOU thought existed is no longer around. That is clearly not the case. You assumed the plague was caused by a virus. It’s obvious. You can’t admit you made a mistake and you’re trying to blame me for it. You did not say I was wrong about it being a virus. You assumed it was due to a virus. It’s really obvious. You made a mistake. Live with it. JVL

Oh my. JVL, YOU brought it up in a discussion about viruses. That means YOU thought it was caused by a virus. I was pointing out that the virus YOU thought existed is no longer around. ET

Brazil which has endorsed HCQ, azithromycin and zinc is now doing better than most of the world. However, politics and economics affected how many got treated or essentially not treated in Brazil. Currently Recovered Deaths Brazil - 93.7%. 6.3% US - 90% 10% France - 72% 28% Canada - 89% 11% Italy - 85% 15% UK - NA Germany - 95 4.7% Spain - NA Mexico - 83% 16.7% Chile - 97.6% 2.4% India - 95.5% 4.5% S. Korea - 97.5% 2.5% Norway - 97% 3% From Worldometers site These numbers do not reflect any age distribution of those who died vs those who recovered. As the number of young test positive, the recovery rate will rise dramatically in those areas. The worse on this list is France which has officially rejected the approach of its most infamous scientist. Irony to the nth power. jerry

ET Umm, YOU brought it up in a discussion on VIRUSES. I just exposed you for that. Now you and the other desperate losers want to try to twist it. You assumed the plague was caused by a virus. It’s really clear from reading the thread. You made a mistake. Own up to it. : JVL

Umm, YOU brought it up in a discussion on VIRUSES. I just exposed you for that. Now you and the other desperate losers want to try to twist it. ET

ET: What? You are the one who brought it up in a discussion n VIRUSES? I was the one busting your chops for doing so. I’m not the one who thought the plague was caused by a virus. I’d suggest being more careful next time. I made a comment about the plague. You didn’t know it wasn’t caused by a virus. You assumed it was caused by a virus. You made a mistake. Perhaps you should just own up to that. JVL

What? You are the one who brought it up in a discussion n VIRUSES? I was the one busting your chops for doing so. ET

ET: Wow, way to double-down on your belligerence. I was following along. That is why I said what I did. I won’t think poorly of you because you didn’t know the plague was not caused by a virus. I’m sure that’s a common mistake. JVL

Wow, way to double-down on your belligerence. I was following along. That is why I said what I did. ET

ET: Yes, JVL, the conversation was about VIRUSES. So clearly you have other issues. No one else had trouble following along when I started talking about pathogens in general. Oh well. JVL

Brazil has a couple Dr. Zelenko's. Apparently northern Brazil is doing much better than the richer southern part of Brazil in treating the virus. Though the poorer areas are being hit hard. They are using HCQ, Azithromycin and zinc. I wonder where they got that. The problems are political just as in the US and a lot of Europe. The doctor says their protocol came from Spain as they started to find out what was working there. Interview 1 - https://bit.ly/2VIXG44 Interview 2 - https://bit.ly/3glLXjV Interview 3 - https://bit.ly/2VI3ueh Brazil which had a tough start seems to be on a much better path. Is it due to HCQ, Azithromycin and zinc? They fired the head of medicine for the country who was against HCQ. jerry

Jerry, at last! I see, a preprint: >>COVID-19 Outpatients – Early Risk-Stratified Treatment with Zinc Plus Low Dose Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin: A Retrospective Case Series Study Martin Scholz * , Roland Derwand , Vladimir Zelenko Version 1 : Received: 30 June 2020 / Approved: 3 July 2020 / Online: 3 July 2020 (08:52:22 CEST) How to cite: Scholz, M.; Derwand, R.; Zelenko, V. COVID-19 Outpatients – Early Risk-Stratified Treatment with Zinc Plus Low Dose Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin: A Retrospective Case Series Study. Preprints 2020, 2020070025 (doi: 10.20944/preprints202007.0025.v1).>> From the pdf: >>As of June, 2020, diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 have been almost exclusively studied from an inpatient perspective, including intensive care with mechanical ventilation. Only one study has described characteristics and key health outcomes of COVID-19 diagnosed patients in an outpatient setting. 3 This is surprising as primary care physicians see COVID-19 patients often first. They could play a critical role in early diagnosis, treatment, and management of disease progression and virus spread. This assumption is supported by the established principle in medicine that speed of eradication is linked to the outcome of life-threatening infections. 4 [--> The U vs L model: fast descending arm, catch it early so you don't flatline.] The early clinical phase of COVID-19 has not been the focus of research until today even though timing of antiviral treatment seems to be critical. 5 The more optimal window for therapeutic intervention is before the infection spreads from upper to lower respiratory tract and before the severe inflammatory reactions. 6 Therefore, diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible, even based on clinical diagnosis only, may have been an underestimated first step to slow down or even stop the pandemic more effectively. [--> academic understatement] Based on clinical application principles of antiviral therapies, as demonstrated in the case of influenza A, 7 antiviral treatments should be used early in the course of infection. Due to the lack of vaccines as well as SARS-CoV-2 specific therapies, the proposed use of repurposed antiviral drugs remains a valid practical consideration. 8 One of the most controversial drugs during the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is the well-known oral antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), routinely used in the treatment of autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis or lupus. 9 10 HCQ is currently listed as an essential medication for lupus by the World Health Organization (WHO) 11 . With more than 5.6 million prescriptions in the United States, HCQ was the 128th most commonly prescribed medication in 2017. 12 In the meantime, first observational studies concluding beneficial therapeutic effects of HCQ as monotherapy or in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin were reported just a few weeks after the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. 13 All studies that used HCQ with rather contradictory results were done with hospitalized and often sicker patients 13-16 and one publication was recently withdrawn. 17 18 As of June 2020, no studies with COVID-19 outpatients treated with HCQ at an early stage of the disease have been reported. Antiviral effects of HCQ are well-documented. 19 It is also known that chloroquine and probably HCQ have zinc ionophore characteristics, increasing intracellular zinc concentrations. 20 Zinc itself is able to inhibit coronavirus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase activity (RdRp). 21 It has been hypothesized that zinc may enhance the efficacy of HCQ in treating COVID-19 patients. 22 The first clinical trial results confirming this hypothesis were recently published as preprint. 23 Nevertheless, many studies with HCQ in monotherapy or in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin have been inconclusive so far. 13-16 In all of these studies, HCQ was used later than 5 days after onset of symptoms when hospitalized patients most likely had already progressed to stage II or III of the disease. 6 Regardless of the established antiviral effects of zinc and that many COVID-19 patients are prone to zinc deficiencies, dependent on comorbidities and drug treatments, 22 none of these studies were designed to include zinc supplementation as combination treatment. This first retrospective case series study with COVID-19 outpatients was done to show whether a) a simple to perform outpatient risk stratification might allow for rapid treatment decision shortly after onset of symptoms, and b) whether the triple 5-day therapy with zinc, low dose HCQ, and azithromycin might result in less hospitalizations and less fatalities compared with relevant public reference data of untreated patients. [pp. 4 - 5]>> Then: >>In the treatment group 4 of 141 patients were hospitalized, which was significantly less than in the untreated group with 58 of 377 patients (15.4%), (fig 2.), (OR 0.16; [95% CI, 0.06 to 0.5]; p> Note on safety: >>In general, the triple therapy with zinc, low dose HCQ, and azithromycin was well tolerated. After initiation of treatment 30 of 141 patients (21%) reported weakness, 20 (14%) nausea, 15 (11%) diarrhea, and 2 (1%) rash (table 8). No patient reported palpitations or any cardiac side effect. [p. 12]>> This now goes with the Raoult and India results. KF kairosfocus

Yes, JVL, the conversation was about VIRUSES. So clearly you have other issues. ET

F/N: Some sobering notes from an article on the Ford HCQ+ study: https://thenationalpulse.com/coronavirus/hydroxychloroquine-works-says-study/ >>Among all the patients in the study, there was an overall in-hospital mortality rate of 18%, and many who died had underlying conditions, the hospital system said. Globally, the mortality rate for hospitalized patients is between 10% and 30%, and 58% among those in the ICU or on a ventilator.>> Not good news. However, consistent with the scans showing significant lung damage already, even when symptoms begin to show up. KF kairosfocus

ET: Then why did JVL bring it up? Are you saying you made a mistake because I said something? Look at the conversation and then you can tell why I brought it up.

Yersinia pestis (formerly Pasteurella pestis) is a gram-negative, non-motile, rod-shaped, coccobacillus bacterium, with no spores. It is a facultative anaerobic organism that can infect humans via the Oriental rat flea (Xenopsylla cheopis). It causes the disease plague, which takes three main forms: pneumonic, septicemic, and bubonic.

Every year, thousands of cases of the plague are still reported to the World Health Organization, although with proper treatment, the prognosis for victims is now much better. A five- to six-fold increase in cases occurred in Asia during the time of the Vietnam War, possibly due to the disruption of ecosystems and closer proximity between people and animals. The plague is now commonly found in sub-Saharan Africa and Madagascar, areas that now account for over 95% of reported cases. The plague also has a detrimental effect on nonhuman mammals. In the United States, mammals such as the black-tailed prairie dog and the endangered black-footed ferret are under threat.

Seems to be alive and well actually; just waiting to get another crack at humans . . . I wonder if it will strengthen our immune systems . . . JVL

Bob O'H:

the plague isn’t caused by a virus.

Then why did JVL bring it up? ET

10 days of streptomycin and you’ll be right as rain. Because of science! Retired Physicist

ET look up yersinia pestis. Retired Physicist

ET - the plague isn't caused by a virus. And the disease is still around. It's even in Colorado, so I hope Barry doesn't make a habit of cuddling prairie dogs. Bob O'H

LoL! @ JVL:

It worked for the Black Death! Plague ravaged Europe many, many times killing upwards of one-third of the population.

And yet the virus is no longer around. Meaning it did NOT work. ET

More good news https://bit.ly/2BxBX8k

Risk Factors for Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 in New York City Conclusions Among patients with COVID-19, older age, male sex, hypotension, tachypnea, hypoxia, impaired renal function, elevated D-dimer, and elevated troponin were associated with increased in-hospital mortality and hydroxychloroquine use was associated with decreased in-hospital mortality.

Second study in two days to show HCQ with some effect on seriously hospitalized patients. Wasn't supposed to work here. jerry

Zelenko publishes https://bit.ly/2YTjRGT

Objective: To describe outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the outpatient setting after early treatment with zinc, low dose hydroxychloroquine, and azithromycin (the triple therapy) dependent on risk stratification.  Design: Retrospective case series study. Setting: General practice. Participants: 141 COVID-19 patients with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in the year 2020.  Main Outcome Measures: Risk-stratified treatment decision, rate of hospitalization and all-cause death.  Results:  Of 335 positively PCR-tested COVID-19 patients, 127 were treated with the triple therapy. 104 of 127 met the defined risk stratification criteria and were included in the analysis. In addition, 37 treated and eligible patients who were confirmed by IgG tests were included in the treatment group (total N=141). 208 of the 335 patients did not meet the risk stratification criteria and were not treated. After 4 days (median, IQR 3-6, available for N=66/141) of onset of symptoms, 141 patients (median age 58 years, IQR 40-60; 73% male) got a prescription for the triple therapy for 5 days. Independent public reference data from 377 confirmed COVID-19 patients of the same community were used as untreated control. 4 of 141 treated patients (2.8%) were hospitalized, which was significantly less (p<0.001) compared with 58 of 377 untreated patients (15.4%) (odds ratio 0.16, 95% CI 0.06-0.5) Therefore, the odds of hospitalization of treated patients were 84% less than in the untreated group. One patient (0.7%) died in the treatment group versus 13 patients (3.5%) in the untreated group (odds ratio 0.2, 95% CI 0.03-1.5; p=0.16). There were no cardiac side effects.  Conclusions: Risk stratification-based treatment of COVID-19 outpatients as early as possible after symptom onset with the used triple therapy, including the combination of zinc with low dose hydroxychloroquine, was associated with significantly less hospitalizations and 5 times less all-cause deaths.

Let the nitpicking begin! jerry

Vividbleau: Just finished 24 episodes on the ‘ Great Mortality” ,which was what those who went through it called it, on Amazon Prime. 24 episodes . . . I'll try the first one at least!! Bob O'H: I think the plague’s primary hosts are rodents, so killing humans quickly isn’t a huge issue. Depends on which type of plague you're talking about: Bubonic plague is mainly spread by infected fleas from small animals. It may also result from exposure to the body fluids from a dead plague-infected animal. In the bubonic form of plague, the bacteria enter through the skin through a flea bite and travel via the lymphatic vessels to a lymph node, causing it to swell The pneumonic form may occur following an initial bubonic or septicemic plague infection. It may also result from breathing in airborne droplets from another person or cat infected with pneumonic plague. The difference between the forms of plague is the location of infection; in pneumonic plague the infection is in the lungs, in bubonic plague the lymph nodes, and in septicemic plague within the blood. Septicemic plague is a life-threatening infection of the blood, most commonly spread by bites from infected fleas. JVL

I think the plague's primary hosts are rodents, so killing humans quickly isn't a huge issue. Prairie dogs (for example) are probably more important. Bob O'H

JVL “It worked for the Black Death! Plague ravaged Europe “ Just finished 24 episodes on the ‘ Great Mortality” ,which was what those who went through it called it, on Amazon Prime. Vivid vividbleau

We are nothing but sheep yet I have to go along with the rest of the sheep by law. If your a lefty you pretty much can do anything you want. I am waiting for a imaginative restaurant owner to open his or her restaurant in the middle of the protesters. Actually they should hire professional protestors and set up tables in their midst, win,win https://jbhandleyblog.com/home/2020/6/28/secondwave Vivid vividbleau

KF: Killing the host — esp quickly — is not a good survival trait. It worked for the Black Death! Plague ravaged Europe many, many times killing upwards of one-third of the population. BobRyan: Our immune system is strengthened by continual exposure to things like COVID-19. Unless it kills you! I wouldn't want to be exposed to polio, Marburg, Ebola or Anthrax in order to strengthen my immune system. JVL

For those who have never bothered to spend any time studying how our immune system works, should take a little time to do so. Our immune system is strengthened by continual exposure to things like COVID-19. The constant use of antibacterials like soap, kills bacteria that is both good and bad. Killing bacteria weakens the immune system when used too often. Human interaction strengthens our immune system, whereas quarantine weakens it. I've yet to come across a single study saying that any measures taken to fight the spread of a virus has any positive impact on the immune system. If the immune system is weakened, more people will get sick from far more than COVID-19. BobRyan

ET @ 525 -

Actually, there is evidence to the contrary. You can catch covid-19 again. Any immunity is short-lived. 3 months? But of course it is an ongoing thing

Read the article again. That's not what it says. Bob O'H

KF https://sharylattkisson.com/2020/07/breaking-hydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate-study-finds/ Vivid vividbleau

ET, I think that's the general trend. Killing the host -- esp quickly -- is not a good survival trait. KF kairosfocus

Strains- it's why the flu vaccine usually has 3 different strains. Hopefully this virus mutates itself tame/ non-fatal. ET

DS, the issue is strains. KF kairosfocus

SNIP — pretending to be civil after crossing the Rubicon does not work. For cause, you have been asked to leave this thread. Further, pretending ignorance fails, the thread above is on record as to refusal to be reined in on off topic personal attacks. So too, is the timing of your distractive stunt. KF Ed George

SNIP — pretending to be civil after crossing the Rubicon does not work. For cause, you have been asked to leave this thread. KF Ed George

I've wondered about this too---it seems many of the experts are quite optimistic about a vaccine despite there never being a successful coronavirus vaccine for humans. Not even SARS 1 or MERS. There are coronavirus vaccines for livestock, however. Edit: I gather the trials so far have been promising, in any case. daveS

SNIP -- pretending to be civil after crossing the Rubicon does not work. For cause, you have been asked to leave this thread. KF Ed George

So far one vitamin and mineral supplier has responded to me. They said thank you and are sending the information on to their product development team. How cool would that be to have a proven effective prophylaxis developed based on a regimen of OTC supplements? And yes, of course you will still have to wash your hands. Face masks may be optional, though. *Smoking and consumption of alcohol is still unhealthy ET

Odd that no one can reproduce the miraculous results of Raoult and the rest, isn’t it?

Zelenko has better results. And. there are others. And there is $200,000 to show it is not effective. Amazing that RHampton has read some comments. jerry

>> Although HCQ, with or without Azithromycin and other supplements like zinc, will not help anyone who has tested positive, it definitely has an impact in preventive measures and reducing the complications. Odd that no one can reproduce the miraculous results of Raoult and the rest, isn’t it? rhampton7

It seems CV19 is an RNA virus, implying likely rapid mutation; controls in our cells target DNA not RNA so I gather RNA virus replication has a large number of errors, IIRC, I have seen 10% viability of resulting virus particles from hijacking a cell. . That is like many common cold virus strains, and I think it is heading to become another common cold family. I gather there are no successful vaccines for corona viruses. I am not so sure herd immunity vs strain x will be significant for far enough mutated strain y. It would be good for someone to track down something on this set of Q's. KF kairosfocus

But this headline suggests otherwise Covid-19 immunity could be twice as high as believed, Swedish study finds Findings by Karolinska Institutet suggest infection hotspots such as London could be further towards herd immunity than thought ET

Actually, there is evidence to the contrary. You can catch covid-19 again. Any immunity is short-lived. 3 months? But of course it is an ongoing thing ET

Jerry, Thanks. India of course has local peculiarities with English. A "lakh" is 10^5 and a "crore" is 10^7, reflecting how Indians count. They are the largest English Speaking population in the world, though most speak as a second or third or worse language. I think the US is the biggest pop of mother tongue speakers. So, now let us clip: https://outline.com/srqJA9 >>Even as global studies on Covid-19 treatment are yet to arrive on a consensus on the benefits of administration of Hydroxychloro-quine (HCQ) to contain the transmission of coronavirus, the Vadodara administration has begun analysing the effects of the drug in containing the cases in the city. The Vadodara health department has prepared a report analysing its drive of administering HCQ since April, taking a sample of over one lakh residents [ 100k+] who took a course of the anti-malarial drug as prophylactic. [--> that is a huge patient base] Until Wednesday, the Vadodara Municipal Corporation (VMC) has administered the drug to 3.42 lakh persons [342,000], including health workers and other frontline staff. [ GT 1/3 million! Comparable to Guadeloupe or Barbados] Each of these persons has or will have completed the entire course of the drug — 400mg twice a day for the first dose and 400 mg per week for a minimum of three weeks. [--> that seems a low daily rate after a high surge] Of this, the administration has analysed a sample of over 1 lakh residents, who were mostly close contacts of positive persons and the effect of HCQ in containing the transmission of the virus. According to the analysis, of the 48,873 close contacts of positive patients who took one dose of HCQ, 102 turned Covid-19 positive and 12 succumbed to the infection [--> low transmission rate but high case fatality rate, suggesting older persons] whereas 48 of the 17,776 close contacts of positive patients who took two doses of HCQ turned positive and only one died. [--> is this a 2-day surge?] The study also states that of the 33,563 close contacts of patients who took three HCQ doses, 43 tested positive and one died. [--> is that a 3-day surge?] Authorities say that the analysis is ongoing as is the drive, in accordance with the ICMR recommendation for prophylactic use of HCQ. VMC Health Officer Dr Devesh Patel says, “The debate around HCQ is founded in the side effects of long term use of the drug for treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and other illnesses… So far, HCQ has not been used as a prophylactic… To us, it has shown positive results. We have the numbers and not one person has complained of complications. The only side effect reported is mild gastritis, which is common with administering heavy medicines and can be effectively handled.” Patel said the drug was administered to close contacts of positive patients in the cluster neighbourhoods of Nagarwada-Saiyedpura area of the old city, which was the city’s first red zone, with a population of around 5,000 persons, in the first week of April. The administration began its analysis in the first week of June. The drug was also prescribed and promoted by the Baroda Muslim Doctor’s Association (BMDA), which has been a core partner of the administration to provide Covid-19 care and screening in minority-dominated areas. Dr Mohammad Hussain, president of BMDA, who also runs Faith Hospital in Panigate area of the city, has been continuously promoting the use of HCQ among the community even now. Dr Hussain told this newspaper, “There are conflicting studies about the use of HCQ. While initially the US studies rejected it and cited side-effects, European countries backed its prophylactic use. In Vadodara, it has shown positive results. We have been able to restrict cases in clusters. Nagarwada no longer has a huge number of cases. We haven’t seen any one developing side effects.” Hussain said that the BMDA took lead in promoting HCQ in the initial red zone areas that were mostly in minority-dominated areas. “There was a lot of resistance to the drive. When the administration approached us, we prescribed HCQ and also created awareness about the need to consent to the course. The result has been fruitful. Even in my hospital, I have ensured that all doctors and employees take HCQ as they are in the frontline. Thankfully, none has contracted the virus yet,” Hussain said. A senior doctor from Gujarat Medical Education Research Society (GMERS)-run Gotri Medical College, the biggest Covid1-9 facility in the city that also caters to neighbouring districts, says, “Our residents and doctors are on rotational duty for seven days at a time. Almost all of them have completed at least two rounds… We haven’t seen our healthcare staff falling to the virus yet, barring a couple of cases where the source of infection could not be traced. Although HCQ, with or without Azithromycin and other supplements like zinc, will not help anyone who has tested positive, it definitely has an impact in preventive measures and reducing the complications.” [--> that contains an odd remark] Officer on Special Duty Vinod Rao said that the administration had apprised the state government about its findings from the analysis so far. “The task force of medical experts, including physicians and super specialists, have recommend and backed the drive to administer HCQ in cluster areas and high exposure cases. We have discussed the analysis and the results with the government. The benefits seem to far outweigh the debate around its risks and it has certainly helped in implementing the preventive strategies planned for the city,” Rao said.>> India is of course the no 2 population country in the world and these runs are comparable in numbers to anything else out there. KF kairosfocus

Apologies. I found the best way to their counter nonsense is with moar nonsense. Clearly the USA wouldn't annex every country in the Western hemisphere. ;) :D ET

YOU ARE ASKED TO LEAVE, FOR CAUSE Jerry

Is Florida on its way to herd immunity?

It is still not certain if being infected gives you future immunity. Hopefully this is the case but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Ed George

Is Florida on its way to herd immunity? jerry

Jerry, tempted as I am, UD is such a focus for polarised and bad faith commentary that such a thread would be predictably self defeating especially in the midst of a 4th Gen Civil War. Notice, people have been targetted for deplatforming because of comments. KF kairosfocus

Interesting chart. https://twitter.com/obsoletedogma/status/1278710192608247813?s=21 Ed George

Kf, I suggested in the past to have going an all purpose thread for non relevant comments that is periodically replaced. I assume you have the ability in WordPress to remove a comment and post it in a different thread. That way people can rant all they want and not interfere with the topic or actually discuss a different topic of their choice. My observation is that nearly every thread is hijacked or there is an attempt to. There could be some exceptions as people ask for clarification on something or advice that is somewhat related to the topic. May not work but worth a shot. jerry

Kf, India site. No popups. https://outline.com/srqJA9 Hurrah for RHampton. He found the positive Henry Ford study. What will WHO say and all those publications panning HCQ. Still for hospitalized patients instead of earlier. jerry

The Israel Police announced on Thursday that they will carry out a nationwide operation over the weekend to enforce coronavirus regulations to curb the recent rise in virus cases, as the government is set to discuss limiting the number of people allowed in venues and at events. The main focus of the police will be to enforce limitations on the number of patrons at venues, and the wearing of masks, the police said, adding that they will center their efforts on venues holding weddings and private social events and on areas desginated "restricted," Lod and Ashdod. The focus will be one venue owners, rather than patrons, the police said. "The intention is not to give fines in the middle of the dance floor," a senior police official said. However, police intend to take a "heavy hand" on enformecement in the coming days. "In the restricted areas, we will work with the utmost severity and intensity," says the chief of the police operations Department, Commander Yishai Shalem. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-israel-police-to-carry-out-weekend-coronavirus-enforcement-operation-as-cases-rise-1.8965839 rhampton7

This is an odd turn of events: Tourists from the United States will not be welcome in Sonora over the Fourth of July holiday weekend. The Mexico-United States border is closed to nonessential travel until July 21 but Governor Claudia Pavlovich Arellano nevertheless affirmed that people seeking to enter Sonora from Arizona – where coronavirus cases have spiked recently – for nonessential purposes will not be allowed in this weekend. She said Wednesday she had advised the foreign affairs minister of the plan to block the entry of nonessential travelers from the United States and he expressed his support for the plan. Pavlovich said that U.S. visitors will not only be unwelcome on Sonora’s beaches this weekend but also in border cities such as San Luis Río Colorado, Nogales and Agua Prieta and municipalities of the Sonoran Sierra Madre Occidental. https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronavirus/sonora-tightens-us-border-crossings-as-arizona-virus-cases-spike/ rhampton7

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves said Wednesday the state is pausing its efforts to reopen the economy after a recent surge in new reported coronavirus cases. “Things are getting worse, not better,” Reeves said at a news briefing. Like other states across the South, Mississippi has lead the nation in its efforts to reopen the economy. Many restaurants have been open for dine-in for more than a month at limited capacity. Most state agencies are open. Movie theaters and entertainment venues are open. The governor had initially planned to completely reopen the state by July 1. But on that date, he said a goal that is no longer feasible. “It’s not that our current rules are too loose,” Reeves said. “Our challenge is that our people aren’t following even the simplest of rules. Additional orders are useless if people will not follow what we have in place now.” https://www.magnoliastatelive.com/2020/07/02/mississippi-governor-on-virus-things-are-getting-worse-not-better/ rhampton7

Jerry, as soon as I went to Indian Express, annoying popups and greyouts appeared. KF kairosfocus

JVL, I thought better of you than that. I will note that on your NATO point, the fundamental issue was allies not stepping up to the plate on commitments regarding defence spending. Which has improved since. There is a well known issue in economics on provisions of services with significant externalities. In negotiations, sometimes putting BATNA on the table is what's left to get a reasonable response. As those who wish for abolition of policing may learn the hard way. At this point, WHO has so disgraced itself that a US walkaway may be a reasonable response. In the past IIRC both the US and the UK walked away from UNESCO. The UN human rights commission has been turned into almost the opposite of its intent, being captured by some of the worst violators. And perhaps you are unaware of the long term breakdown of the UN's credibility such that in the US there is a significant view that the US should leave it. I wonder if some lessons have been learned from BREXIT. Beyond that, I note this thread has a specific focus on treatments regarding CV19 and results thereof, especially the needlessly controversial case of HCQ cocktails. I hope Ivermectin does not get embroiled in the same. KF kairosfocus

A Henry Ford Health System study shows the controversial anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine helps lower the death rate of COVID-19 patients, the Detroit-based health system said Thursday. The study analyzed 2,541 patients hospitalized among the system’s six hospitals between March 10 and May 2 and found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine died while 26% of those who did not receive the drug died. Patients with a median age of 64 were among those analyzed, with 51% men and 56% African American. Roughly 82% of the patients began receiving hydroxychloroquine within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours, a factor Dr. Marcus Zervos identified as a potential key to the medication’s success. “We attribute our findings that differ from other studies to early treatment, and part of a combination of interventions that were done in supportive care of patients, including careful cardiac monitoring," said Zervos, division head of infectious disease for the health system. Zervos conducted the study with epidemiologist Dr. Samia Arshad. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/02/michigan-henry-ford-health-study-finds-hydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/5365090002/ rhampton7

Jerry, I expand the clip from Brazil: https://twitter.com/Covid19Crusher/status/1277369939394002944 >>Extraordinary evidence from the large Brazilian Unimed hospital system: since their hospital in Belém (1.5m people) has switched to early hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin +ivermectin treatment, hospital admissions have totally collapsed despite the tsunami of new cases in Brazil!>> The chart shows a surge that then sharply trails off. KF kairosfocus

ET, please leave off barbed political commentary, it has utterly nothing to do with the issues from OP on, and serves only as a distractor. KF kairosfocus

EG, last warning was given. Please leave this thread. KF kairosfocus

F/N: On twisting the points in ecgs: https://www.healthline.com/health/torsades-de-pointes >>Torsades de pointes (French for “twisting of the points”) is one of several types of life-threatening heart rhythm disturbances. In the case of torsades de pointes (TdP), the heart’s two lower chambers, called the ventricles, beat faster than and out of sync with the upper chambers, called the atria. An abnormal heart rhythm is called an arrhythmia. When the heart beats much faster than normal, the condition is called tachycardia. TdP is an unusual type of tachycardia that sometimes resolves on its own, but can also worsen into a serious heart condition called ventricular fibrillation. Ventricular fibrillation can lead to cardiac arrest, an event in which the heart suddenly stops. Cardiac arrest is usually fatal.>> KF kairosfocus

(as I eye my fireworks waiting for Saturday) ET

And hopefully Americans are being smarter and will stop buying things made in China. ET

RP@500, just like his tariffs against Chinese steel resulted in billions of tax dollars being use to bailout farmers. Ed George

Won't make RHampton reporting https://bit.ly/3dVshSq

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, and Combination in Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 - International Journal of Infectious Diseases

From study at Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit with hospitalized patients published yesterday. A high percentage died but less with HCQ. Not what others were reporting. No patient had documented torsades de pointes or heart issues,

The results of this study demonstrate that in a strictly monitored protocol-driven in-hospital setting, treatment with hydroxychloroquine alone and hydroxychloroquine?+?azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in mortality among patients hospitalized with COVID-19 - 2541 patients

So even is an inappropriate situation, HCQ had a positive effect. Still too many people died which probably could have been reduced dramatically if the treatment was applied earlier. Then there is this report from a hospital in Brazil after switching to HCQ and Azithromycin or ivermectin. https://bit.ly/38qllvw And then from India. https://bit.ly/2NVNxwx

HCQ helping in containing Covid-19 cases, say docs as analysis begins “The task force of medical experts, including physicians and super specialists, have recommend and backed the drive to administer HCQ in cluster areas and high exposure cases. We have discussed the analysis and the results with the government. The benefits seem to far outweigh the debate around its risks and it has certainly helped in implementing the preventive strategies planned for the city,”

jerry

Whoopsie- the rise in covid-19 cases is attributed to Memorial Day weekend parties. There isn't any doubt that the protests, riots and looting also contributed. ET

LoL! @ the cowardly hearsay. And LoL! @ something that happened TWO YEARS AGO and has since been rectified. Why aren't people saying anything about the US NOT following Trump's guidelines for reopening? ET

@Ed I talked to a guy a few months ago who worked for a company that welded metal roof trusses, and he said that every business downstream of the steel mills got hurt by that move, and several had to close. Food for thought. Retired Physicist

JVL@490, you forgot about him imposing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum because we were a security threat. Ed George

My scenario: The US isolates itself and annexes every country in the Western hemisphere to insure a supply of raw materials. :cool: ET

If those 4 countries were isolated then they can do whatever they can get away with. India and China are fighting now. Oh, and India is reporting no climate change for over 40 years! And they are considering dropping out of any climate treaty: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/25/new-climate-assessment-suggests-no-dangerous-warming/ ET

ET: I think we could. We would just go take whatever we needed and didn’t have And if Russia or China or India or North Korea did that what would you think of them? JVL

Couldn't have said it any better than this Canadian: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4i3LmR0K74&t=190s ET

Why sadly? The USA has helped out everyone. And all we get back is spit upon. The US allies won't abandon the US. They know what will happen when they do. ET

EG, JVL, et al, A lot of the US is of the same mind as ET, sadly. I hope you guys have a plan B to handle the case where the US abandons its allies. daveS

JVL:

The US may still be the most powerful nation on the planet but even it cannot exist without the help and cooperation of the rest of the world.

I think we could. We would just go take whatever we needed and didn't have. :razz: ET

Wow. What ignorance. The EU hasn't stepped up to fund their share of NATO nor the United Nations. WHO is a shill org, clearly in the pockets of China Climate treaties are a joke. CO2 is NOT the problem If the rest of the world stood up and actually did something, as opposed to waiting for the USA, the world would be a better place. How many affairs did Clinton have? What about JFK? Iran? Obama gave them $150 billion! You cannot be any more of a loser than that ET

Ed George: It is unfortunate that [SNIP] has alienated the country from the rest of the world. What he has done is prove to its allies that they can’t trust or rely on the US. Hopefully this doesn’t last much longer. Just consider some of what has happened in the last three years: The US has threatened to stop funding and pull out of NATO, one of the most stabilising organisations in the European area. The US has threatened to pull out of the WHO. Did they actually do so? The US has pulled out of at least one international climate treaty. The US escalated rhetoric with North Korea and then claimed they were all buddy-buddy. Has anything come of their negotiations? I think not. The US has flip-flopped with Russia, sometimes being nice, sometimes not. The US has antagonised China about 50 years after another Republican president opened up that country to international negotiations and diplomacy. The US pulled out af a treaty with Iran which was roundly condemned by many other countries. The US President, in particular, has criticised the heads of other states and the Mayor of London for how they handle their countries and cities. The leader of the US has been married three times, has had multiple affairs, has used vulgar and crude language when referring to women, has referred to multiple individuals with crude and school-yard level nicknames. And that's not addressing any of the domestic issues which have deeply split the country and weakened its ability to solve some deeply rooted problems. Arguably it has handled the COVID-19 crisis badly, having the third highest population on the planet but having over a quarter of all attributed deaths. So, yes, not surprisingly, a lot of the rest of the world is starting to not trust the current US administration and to feel that they hinder more than help. The US may still be the most powerful nation on the planet but even it cannot exist without the help and cooperation of the rest of the world. JVL

And Biden will make things much worse and then blame it on Trump. ET

EG,

What he has done is prove to its allies that they can’t trust or rely on the US. Hopefully this doesn’t last much longer.

I hope so too, but our stable genius has a surprising level of support given all the crises we face at the moment. Creepy Joe will likely win the next election, but that's partly because the current president* appears to have all but given up. OT: Ghislaine Maxwell arrested. daveS

My rhetorical voltage is very low when considering what I am dealing with. Acartia Eddie has NEVER added anything insightful to any discussion here. Acartia Eddie couldn't support its claims if its life depended on it. So it cheapens this forum to allow it to persist ET

KF

EG, Personal insult

Nope. Easily confirmed observation. Ed George

ET, you have several points, however it will probably help if we all lower rhetorical voltage. KF kairosfocus

RP:

Weird, I always thought the CDC was a federal institution, but it must be a state institution according to some people here.

Please, at least TRY to make your case. Only loser cowards post bald accusations and innuendos. ET

Acartia Eddie George is an ignorant and angry, insipid troll. Why does Uncommon Descent continue to give it a platform to spew its vile hatred? ET

MatSpirit:

They took the responsibility because Trump was pretending that the pandemic didn’t exist and did nothing while their citizens were dying.

You are either misinformed or you are a liar.

Actually, quite a few of the red states heard his call and opened up their economies.

Not per his guidelines. Again, you are a liar. Again a Trump detractor has to lie to feel good about itself. Obviously they will NEVER grow up. ET

Weird, I always thought the CDC was a federal institution, but it must be a state institution according to some people here. Retired Physicist

The United States has a population of over 328,000,000, which makes it the third largest populated country in the world. The number is just for American citizens and does not count the non-citizens, both legal and illegal, which puts the total to about 400,000,000, which is probably on the low end. When you have the third largest population, you are going to have higher numbers of people who test positive, which is why per capita is used for statistical purposes. 5 states did not shut down and those are the states that have the fewest cases of death due to COVID-19. Other states told people to weaken their immune systems and frighten their populations to the point where elderly are not going to the hospital when they get a stroke or have a heart attack. They fear getting the virus and are dying alone for conditions that could have been treated. There has been an increase in ODs, spousal abuse, child abuse, alcoholism, drug addiction, obesity, etc. Not one state should have shut down, since no governor has the Constitutional authority. The Supremacy Clause has no exceptions and every governor who shut down their state should be charged with carrying out acts of rebellion. A precedence has been set that any governor can do anything they wish under the guise of public health, since the US Constitution no longer holds the states together. California has a homeless problem. There are too many homeless and not enough bathrooms, which leads to a serious public health issue. California, in the name of public health, can round up all the homeless and force them to become slaves. The 13th Amendment to the US Constitution is the reason slavery is illegal in the United States, which doesn't have any bearing for those who believe states can do whatever they wish in the name of public health. BobRyan

MS, you have a basic duty to truth, failed. Federal level responses to pandemic were initiated in January and have continued since. It is also correct that there is a division of responsibilities between the local and federal. Further to all of this, there was always going to be a high cost in lives once containment failed in China. In the US and elsewhere we have faced a dismal calculus between lives lost due to pandemic and lives lost due to economic and social dislocation. Deaths of despair alone is a major issue. Similarly, deaths due to postponed or lost medical interventions for other diseases including the really big killers, heart, cancer, diabetes etc. The onward global cost in terms of damage in the underdeveloped world is yet to roll in, especially if we get a global recession. Then, there is the shift in demographics in the current surge and its timing closely connected to a wave of uncontrolled outdoors events that would involve such a demographic. Where, that demographic is such that it has a much lower likelihood of fatality, consistent with the continued down-trend on deaths. Where, a vaccine is not likely to be approved in any relevant time and there has been a clear concerted push by the establishment to discredit and lock out what as the data in the OP shows (with other data) is clearly an effective but apparently politically incorrect treatment: HCQ based cocktails.That behaviour has credibly cost lives in significant numbers, part of why ethics-epistemological issues now have to be dealt with, of urgency. Lastly, if you leave off the context that the true numbers from China are likely to be a fairly large multiple of what has been reported, you will distort context for evaluating. KF kairosfocus

EG, Personal insult; you have had multiple warnings on general conduct. Hence, snip. You are currently acting like the dog that chased the car. Thankfully, you will never be in the position to get in and drive. KF PS: If you are truly interested in commenting about alliances, the truth is that the US has struggled with alliances since WW1 after which it tried to go home; materially contributing to the roots of round 2. Similarly, the "deal" struck with Iran some years back will come back to haunt the world. It seems you are also naive enough to imagine that the dominant media narrative is anything near credible, itself a further indicator of conclusions you have triggered. Further, those trying a Red Guards led cultural form marxist/maoist revolution 2.0 have so arranged matters that they have crossed the Rubicon of exposing themselves as anti-civilisational and misanthropic: defund [= abolish] the police. Post election, whichever way it goes, will be chaotic [part of the mutiny on the ship of state], but creating a situation where civilisation is the issue at stake is utmost folly. I predict, people will in the end vote for civilisation over anti-civilisation. And if they don't, we are in for yet another lesson on why radical revolutions have consistently been chaotic and usually bloody failures ever since 1789. kairosfocus

Jerry, deaths of despair. KF kairosfocus

ET: "How soon Trump’s willfully ignorant detractors forget: In the USA the Governors are responsible for their respective States." They took the responsibility because Trump was pretending that the pandemic didn't exist and did nothing while their citizens were dying. ET: "Trump wanted to make the call and everyone reminded him it wasn’t his to make." Actually, quite a few of the red states heard his call and opened up their economies. You can tell which states followed Trump's lead by which states have soaring infection rates again. To be followed in 2-5 weeks by soaring death rates. ET: "Grow up, really." Yes, do that. MatSpirit

Sev, my experience with Americans has almost universally been great. It is unfortunate that [SNIP] has alienated the country from the rest of the world. What he has done is prove to its allies that they can’t trust or rely on the US. Hopefully this doesn’t last much longer. Ed George

How soon Trump's willfully ignorant detractors forget: In the USA the Governors are responsible for their respective States. Trump wanted to make the call and everyone reminded him it wasn't his to make. Grow up, really. ET

Mass demonstrations, riots and looting- the rise in COVID-19 cases was expected. And the age group that is contributing to the recent outbreaks is very telling (20-44). ET

Ed George @ 462

Happy Canada Day. I think I will celebrate by flying to Europe. Anyone want to join me?

Congratulations and thanks for the invitation. Sadly, I'm afraid our own Dear Leader Kim Jong Trump's USexit from the rest of the world makes that rather difficult. Seversky

Another record high for COVID in the US. Ed George

Lockdowns kill - Not part of the official C19 stats. https://wapo.st/2YS16nb

Cries for help’: Drug overdoses are soaring during the coronavirus pandemic...Suspected overdoses nationally jumped 18 percent in March, 29 percent in April and 42 percent in May, data from ambulance teams, hospitals and police shows.

jerry

Stirring the pot a bit- I am sending out emails to vitamin/ supplement manufacturers with information pertaining to the EVMS prophylaxis. I tell them they sell everything that is on the list. I am asking them to request clinical trials because if successful their businesses will prosper greatly. https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf ET

Israeli ministers approve restrictions on neighborhoods in the cities of Ashdod and Lod where relatively many cases of the coronavirus were discovered, declaring them "restricted zones." The Knesset passed temporary legislation allowing for digital tracking of coronavirus patients by the Shin Bet security service after two votes on Wednesday. The vote, which was to take place Tuesday, was delayed to give the governing coalition additional time to whip up support for the bill, which is aimed at curbing the recent spike in coronavirus cases in Israel. Fifty-three lawmakers voted in favor of the bill, while 38 opposed it. (Jonathan Lis) https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-coronavirus-israel-live-cases-rise-second-wave-1.8957862 rhampton7

Governor Bill Lee is not ruling out the possibility of allowing more local leaders in Tennessee to mandate the use of face masks out in public, saying the state is growing increasingly concerned with the continued rise in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in recent weeks. Lee and Tennessee Department of Health Director Dr. Lisa Piercey took a notably more assertive tone during Wednesday's weekly state briefing, more so than any other time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, pleading multiple times for Tennesseans to keep their guard up and to follow social distancing guidelines. "Don't put our state two steps backward by refusing to wear a mask, refusing to social distance, or refuse to pay attention to something as simple as washing your hands," Lee said. https://www.wbir.com/article/news/local/governor-bill-lee-exploring-local-mask-mandate-options-as-tennessee-coronavirus-cases-rise/51-9e779e63-986d-46ce-babf-b31c73560478 rhampton7

A reader of Heidi.news tells us of her conviction that the large British clinical trial Recovery on hydroxychloroquine in Covid-19 prescribed the molecule in toxic doses that are not likely to have a therapeutic effect. To support her argument, she refers us to the alternative medical site Age of Autism Investigators in the UK Recovery trial therefore designed a protocol to maximize the chances of achieving a therapeutic effect with relatively high doses . They are explained in an explanatory note dated April 18: “This dose [of hydroxychloroquine] was chosen on the basis of the data available on the IC50 (median inhibitory concentration, indicator of antiviral efficacy in vitro, editor's note) of Sars-CoV-2. The goal is to get plasma inhibitory concentrations for the virus as quickly as possible. ” And the authors continue: “The resulting plasma concentrations are in the high range of those that can be obtained during long-term treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. But given the high mortality of Covid-19 patients in hospital, this dose seems justified. ” We asked Professor Caroline Samer, pharmacologist and clinical toxicologist at HUG, for her opinion on the choices made in Recovery and Solidarity. “There are two ways of looking at it. A first hypothesis consists in thinking that the patient should aim for a free concentration in the plasma (liquid part of the blood, editor's note) similar to that measured in vitro , which is very difficult to achieve quickly and without toxicity in humans. . According to a second hypothesis, it would suffice to reach this concentration in the pulmonary tissues at the intracellular level, and in this case, if we consider a factor of accumulation in the lung of 100 to 700 on the basis of data from the animal, these concentrations would be much more easily attainable. ” For the Geneva pharmacologist, reasoning holds water. “For me, having given this high dose makes the argument of ineffectiveness almost certain. They gave themselves every chance for the molecule to work. ” Indeed, the effects of an antiviral generally depend on the concentration. If a molecule does not work at high doses, it is very unlikely that it works at low doses. Chloroquine and its derivatives are “slow” drugs to accumulate in the body: it takes several weeks to obtain a stable concentration in the blood. This is not a problem in malaria or autoimmune diseases, but in Covid-19, the fate of a patient is decided in a week or two. This is why higher doses are used at the start of treatment - we speak of "loading doses" - in order to quickly obtain the desired concentration. For illustration, here are two prescription regimens for hydroxychloroquine: against rheumatoid arthritis (as indicated by Plaquenil): 2 to 3 tablets of 200 mg per day for several months. against Covid-19 in Recovery: a loading dose of 10 tablets of 200 mg on the first day (4 morning / 4 noon / 2 evening), then 2 tablets per day for 10 days. Let's go back to the suspicion of overdose of hydroxychloroquine in Recovery. We must differentiate two types of toxicity: acute toxicity: it is the toxicity of a molecule in the event of massive administration (poisoning, overdose, etc.) The 5-Minute Toxicology Consult by Richard Dart and colleagues, a reference work in toxicology, mentions a threshold value of 10 grams. With 10 tablets of 200 mg on the first day, the Recovery protocol reaches 2 grams of hydroxychloroquine, which is also taken in divided doses. We are therefore far from the concentrations likely to cause acute poisoning, and this by a margin of a factor of 4 or 5. https://www.heidi.news/sante/non-les-britanniques-n-ont-pas-surdose-l-hydroxychloroquine-dans-leur-essai-recovery rhampton7

This resurgence in interest in hydroxychloroquine has led to many new trials being institigated in the setting of COVID?19. Currently, in the clinicaltrial.gov database, there are 454 clinical studies on hydroxychloroquine 208 of which are in the setting of COVID?19, although the response from the MHRA to stop all recruitment to trials of these drugs has impacted upon this number (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra?suspends?recruitment?to?covid?19?hydroxychloroquine?trials). These clinical trials are going to be essential if we are to understand whether there is any benefit to be had from these drugs in the clinical setting. The results of RECOVERY suggest not, however the hype surrounding these drugs is not likely to abate in the near future particularly with so many clinical trials underway. Many of the studies underway have arisen from preclinical studies that have identified novel mechanisms that have been tested in vitro and using preclinical relevant in vivo models. Studies published in BJP over 30 years are a testament to this, demonstrating that targets include transporters, receptors and channels to exert effects ranging from arrhythmia, repression of immune responses, autophagy and pulmonary vasodilatation to name a few. We would also like to highlight that one aspect of activity that has not been considered is retinal toxicity. While it is true that this side effect is present in chronic treatment such as in arthritis, the fact that it is dose?related, means caution should be taken when this drug is used for prophylactic use in patients with eye disease. We bring some of the papers published in BJP together in this timely virtual issue in a bid to help researchers understand what the risks and benefits of this drug might be in 2020. https://bpspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bph.15177 rhampton7

Yes, Jerry, early intervention is key. That's why Tylenol, hydration, rest and kumbaya is a total joke. I would love to see a study on the efficacy of the prophylaxis protocol recommended by East Virginia. ET

Why would anyone want to? ET

Happy Canada Day. I think I will celebrate by flying to Europe. Anyone want to join me? Ed George

New arrow in the anti virus quiver, Ivermectin https://bit.ly/2Ak5bac

Ivermectin Study Reveals Fantastic Results: 100% of 60 Patients Better in an Average of Just Under 6 Days

Zelenko will publish soon. Says the approach to treating patients is common sense. Treat in the first 5 days after onset of symptoms. https://bit.ly/2BSV0Km Out of 2200 patients with virus he had only 2 deaths. Most are not high risk so they were not treated but this 2200 number includes hundreds of high risk patients. He treated 800 of the 2200 with the Zelenko treatment. The key is to intervene early. Does not denigrate Remdesivir and says it may be useful for those in late term infection. Zelenko made a comment that people are not dying from C19 but are dying from politics. Remember $200,000 to the person who proves Zelenko wrong. Not only will you be much richer, but you will be a hero to much of the world who wants Trump discredited. Incredible twofer for the one that does it. Plus late night TV show appearances and probably a gig on CNN and MSNBC. Probably set for life. jerry

No one has provided any study, report etc that says HCQ and zinc does not work to eliminate the virus at early stages. With all the negative reporting on HCQ and incentives to do so, no one has stepped up. The NY Times did a hit piece on Zelenko and never touched the issue of efficacy. I wonder why? It would have been a potential Pulitzer prize winning coup to discredit Trump. jerry

Jerry: Anyone else want $200,000? It’s on the table just waiting for proof. What kind of proof do they want? JVL

Anyone else want $200,000? It’s on the table just waiting for proof.

H'mm, I could use 200 grand. 🤔 Maybe I'll give it a shot. daveS

Has anyone here looked at the Remdesivir trials? My guess all the commenters who criticize here that will be a no. It barely beats a placebo. It supposedly acts like zinc, interrupting the virus replication. Which is why I told Rhampton they are similar drugs except for cost. And why it is not very effective when administered late. I believe the zinc report showed zinc was more effective than Remdesivir when administered in hospital. The issue is that doctors don’t get nice speaking engagements for a drug that costs 7 cents a pill. Are we witnessing hypocrisy and greed at warp speed here? jerry

The reward is up to $200,000 for anyone who can show the Zelenko treatment doesn’t work. Two different doctors each put up a $100,000. When I mentioned this before when it was just $100,000 RHampton said he didn’t want my money I then asked him if he was not a native English speaker because he didn’t understand the concept of the reward. He never replied. I thought it might explain his lack of understanding of the comments he was posting. Anyone else want $200,000? It’s on the table just waiting for proof. The Remdisivir story may drive the Europeans to use HCQ And zinc, jUst to get the $200,000 when it doesn’t work. It will look like they are thwarting Trump. jerry

RH7 et al, the ethics-epistemological issues are innate and do not go away even if legislators insist on a gold standard fallacy. The decision theory issue of business as usual vs a credible alternative has not vanished either; there is never a justification for violating the do no harm principle to construct an artificial no treatment control in the face of a fast moving significantly fatal, quite contagious disease. In that light, there is more than adequate evidence available for those willing to be open to it, that HCQ+ cocktails credibly are effective treatments once administered early enough in the disease U. What is clear is that we have a debased mentality once ethics enter. However, oops, as first duties of reason cannot be evaded ethics inescapably governs rationality. So, the ethically debased mindset is in the end untrustworthy and irrational. That is a sobering sign for our civilisation. KF PS: Dr Raoult's results are summaries of cases with differential results on different treatments. Similar studies can be done anywhere and it is quite clear that there is a "business as usual" typical course of rather unsatisfactory near-flu treatment that dominates the global outcomes. The use of HCQ-based cocktails with prompt intervention early in the U- vs- L - trajectory of the disease is a readily identifiable alternative treatment. Statistics are statistics, and the results of the investigations can be reported. If the objection is that observations are unrepeatable, that obtains for many sciences which are sciences nonetheless. The notion of experiments with artificially constructed no effective treatment control groups administered through deceptively labelled sugar pills or the like is ethically dubious in the face of a fast moving pandemic with a significantly lethal fast acting disease. There is no reason why other studies cannot be done on a similar basis, with due attention to the promptness of proper treatment. Where also, the already reported results speak for themselves; there is no reasonable doubt that HCQ-based cocktails are significantly effective in treating CV19, and there is even less doubt that the cocktails are far more logistically feasible than alternatives being touted by the establishments and media. That so many are blind to the ethics-epistemology issues simply exposes the moral blindness and nihilism of our day. kairosfocus

Here's an article from The Guardian about the Remdesivir situation. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/01/gilead-donates-covid-19-drug-remdesivir-to-australias-medical-stockpile-after-us-buys-up-supply JVL

Got some breaking news in the UK: the BBC is reporting that the US has bought almost all of the world's supply of remdesivir. No story to link to yet, it's basically just a headline. JVL

HCQ is for pre- to early stage COVID, Remdesivir is late stage. They don’t compete.

RHampton, You still don’t understand the time course of this virus. They most certainly do compete especially when HCQ is used with zinc. jerry

Following the prophylaxis laid out in the paper @ 436 would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives. If you want to mandate masks then we should mandate vitamins C, D and the mineral zinc ET

Ed: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/30/goldman-sachs-says-a-national-mask-mandate-could-slash-infections-and-save-economy-from-a-5percent-hit.html Retired Physicist

Acartia Eddie- you are a self-inflicted wound. Being shut out of the EU is a good thing for the USA right now. ET

Thank you, EU. Americans should spend their money in the USA. So no, Acartia Eddie, it doesn't hurt us. It helps. ET

RP

@Ed yeah. Sucks.

A totally self inflicted wound. Ed George

@Ed yeah. Sucks. Retired Physicist

This must hurt. https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5632422 Ed George

Israel's Health Ministry has issued a recommendation to close down dozens of cities in Israel, as the list of towns that have recorded outbreaks keeps growing. The government is unlikely to take the suggestion. A new report released on Tuesday by the government’s coronavirus information center said that over the last few days, there has been increased incidence of the disease in Nahariya, Ramle, Lod, Dimona, Beit She’an, Baqa al-Gharbiya, Kafr Qasem, Umm al-Fahm, Jaljulya and Tira. Larger cities, like Bat Yam, Ashdod, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, also have hundreds of active cases, compared to just a few per day in May. (Ido Efrati) As the 2020 school year comes to a close, a letter from the Education Ministry's director general has become public, asking principals to prepare for three different scenarios in the next school year: Full closure, a mix of distance learning and in-class tuition, and regular curriculum, with specific regulations. The document asks school administrators to build programs for each eventuality, allowing for more flexibility and responsiveness. Schools will only be expected to teach 70 percent of the current compulsory curriculum. The decision over the number of hours taughts, the separation in tiers, and other techniques used during the coronavirus outbreak would be left to school authorities. (Shira Kadari-Ovadia) https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-coronavirus-israel-live-cases-rise-second-wave-1.8957862 rhampton7

Four more Texas counties will have to hold off on elective surgeries for now as a rash of COVID-19 infections continues to surge its way through the Lone Star State. Tuesday, Governor Greg Abbott proclaimed the suspension of elective surgeries at hospitals in Cameron, Hidalgo, Nueces and Webb counties. This affects the communities surrounding Brownsville, McAllen, Corpus Christi and Laredo. Gov. Abbott also reserved the right to add or remove counties from the list as numbers fluctuate throughout the state. http://abc7amarillo.com/news/local/gov-abbott-suspends-elective-surgery-for-more-texas-counties rhampton7

In his recent hearing before the Commission of Inquiry of the National Assembly, when a deputy with a training in genetics (there are still some to have a real scientific training; fortunately in the National Assembly he not just Ciotti, Le Gendre or Mélenchon) asked him: " Why did you not carry out a clinical study worthy of the name, from the start, which could have definitively answered, yes or no , hydroxychloroquine has an effect? (….) I know all your work, your science is well established (…) You knew very well that these pseudo-therapeutic trials, these pseudo-clinical trials were absolutely not admissible by anyone (…). Why didn't you do this essay? " In his response, the coronagourou once again outdid himself in the mixture of arrogance and charlatanism that seduces so many weak minds and demagogues: "the fewer people there are in an essay, the more significant it is. (…) Any essay that involves more than 1000 people is an essay that tries to demonstrate something that does not exist. It's intoxicating…. " From the point of view of the basic principles of statistical analysis, it is obviously quite the opposite: the larger the sample size, the better the level of confidence achieved: everyone can understand that a survey d opinion on only 100 people will be of lower quality than if 10,000 people are surveyed. We even know that the sample size must evolve in a quadratic way to tighten the confidence interval (to improve the result by reducing the statistical variability by a factor of 2, you have to multiply the sample size by 4. ) What is true is that if the effect of a treatment is really very significant, it can be detected on samples of only a few hundred or even a few dozen patients. But still it is necessary that precautions are taken to avoid all selection biases (hence the interest of the tests conducted in double blind and controlled by an independent group of test evaluators: they have access to the codes which makes it possible to follow the experiment continuously and to stop the evaluation of the treatment as soon as it proves useful or on the contrary harmful: that a trial is controlled by independent supervision is therefore a guarantee of ethics of the experimentation). Unfortunately, the publications of Raoult and his team seem designed to allow no scientific validation. Their last paper published on June 25 is in fact a comparative observational study relating to 3119 files, which shows how Raoult can affirm everything and its opposite without that his followers hold it against him. He can thus publish an observational study based on the follow-up files of more than 3,000 patients treated by his institute after having affirmed that the other observational syntheses on file which contradicted his hypothesis were worthless, then claimed a few days ago that the essays of more than 1,000 people " try to demonstrate something that does not exist " without making the eyes of its worshipers tickle. This new publication under the flag of convenience (according to journalist JY Nau, the paper took time to come out and finally appeared in the same review which had already hosted its previous publications on the subject ... and after being rejected by The Lancet ) has been described as “ null from zero ” by the epidemiologist D. Costagliola who points out the recurrence of defects already noted in the previous publications of the IHU and in particular a sampling bias (the treated patients being younger and less severely affected than others). It is all the more unfortunate that there remains an uncertainty concerning the possible effectiveness of its protocol in patients in the initial phase of infection, because we already know, from studies carried out elsewhere in Europe and in the USA, that its treatment does not work on patients already severely affected and that hydroxychloroquine also has no prophylactic value, whatever Donald Trump thinks. https://blogs.mediapart.fr/michel-delarche/blog/300620/toujours-pas-de-validation-scientifique-du-protocole-raoult rhampton7

Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, Professor Didier Raoult, who heads the IHU - Méditerranée Infection in Marseille, has established himself as one of the main media and scientific figures. Determined promoter of a treatment based on hydroxychloroquine to treat Covid-19, he drew the wrath of his colleagues denouncing the flaws in his studies supposed to demonstrate the effectiveness of this molecule. Since then, serious scientific studies on the subject all point to a lack of effect of hydroxychloroquine. The professor from Marseille says for his part that his detractors are "children", even "badgers" who understand nothing about viruses, while calling himself "Mbappé of medicine and research", "the star world of infectious diseases ", even the Mozart of medicine. By publishing an extraordinary number of studies in scientific journals controlled by his friends, he obtains a miraculous note and obtains 10 million euros of funding per year from the AP-HM. Decryption. https://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/sciences/l-astuce-du-pr-raoult-pour-publier-massivement-des-etudes-et-decrocher-des-financements_2129521.html rhampton7

UKs NHS services could take as long as 2 years to recover from the effects of COVID-19, a Royal College of Physicians (RCP) member survey of specialists suggests. Fewer procedures can be undertaken due to infection control measures affecting specialties in different ways, RCP found. Respiratory and gastroenterology specialists expected it to take 2 years to recover from the COVID-10 backlog but cardiologists predicted 18–21 months. A separate survey representing 158 NHS trust chairs and chief executives in England found that 54% were reporting increasing numbers of patients whose health conditions had become urgent by the time they sought help. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/933166 rhampton7

The WHO announced on Wednesday the resumption of its hydroxychloroquine trials after The Lancet cast doubt over a large-scale study it published in May that led to temporary suspension of testing of the drug. The observational study looked at records for 96,000 patients and concluded that treatment with hydroxychloroquine, which is normally used to treat arthritis, and chloroquine, an anti-malarial, showed no benefit in the treatment of COVID-19 and even increased the likelihood of patients dying in hospital. “We are now fairly confident, not having seen any differences in mortality, that the data safety monitoring committees of both solidarity and recovery have recommended that the trial can continue,” the WHO‘s Soumya Swaminathan told a press briefing on Wednesday. France was among the countries to also halt COVID-19 treatment with hydroxychloroquine. https://pinevillevoice.com/lancet-casts-doubts-over-hydroxychloroquine-study/ rhampton7

HCQ is for pre- to early stage COVID, Remdesivir is late stage. They don’t compete. rhampton7

Has hell froze over? I agree with Bernie Sanders. https://bit.ly/3eNPN54

As a company, Gilead is now worth over $15 billion more than before the pandemic, in part because it expects to make enormous profits by charging over $3,000 for a drug they had already developed years ago. Their greed must be stopped

Wonder why HCQ is anathema? jerry

I just realized that the Eastern Virginia covid paper has been updated (June 17th): https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf ET

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey on Monday announced an executive order temporarily stopping the operation of bars, gyms and movie theaters, banning certain mass gatherings and delaying the start date for the state's schools in an effort to rein in the state's rapidly increasing number of COVID-19 cases. The order goes into effect at 8 p.m. Monday, June 29. It says businesses that are ordered to be closed — which also include waterparks — will need to show they're following public health regulations if they are to reopen after a target of 30 days. Schools are now set to reopen Aug. 17, for now. In Monday's briefing, Ducey again focused on the growing number of cases among younger people, pointing to state data showing the 20-44 age group account for 22% of hospitalizations. He stressed the objective is to slow the spread of the virus, pointing to data of significantly lower daily case counts during the stay-at-home order. "We've done that before and we need to do that again," he said. In the briefing, the governor did not issue a stay-at-home order, nor did he order the closure of restaurants. He continued to implore Arizonans to wear masks, but made no statewide requirement to that effect. https://news.azpm.org/p/news-articles/2020/6/29/175677-ducey-orders-closure-of-bars-movie-theaters-and-gyms-delays-start-of-school/ rhampton7

This new study from China’s Wuhan University says that the use of cholesterol-lowering drugs called statins is associated with a lower death rate and a lesser incidence of mechanical ventilation in hospitalised COVID-19 patients.

Simvastatin or Zocor is on the full treatment regimen of the Eastern Virginia Medical School regimen. But also says atorvastatin or Lipitor may be preferred. jerry

Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly announced a statewide order requiring Kansans to wear face masks in indoor spaces. The requirement takes effect at 12:01 a.m. Friday. "Every Kansan in a public space must wear a mask," the governor said. "This doesn't change where you can go or what you can do. It just means that if you're around other people, you must wear a mask." Kelly said the number of cases of COVID-19 continue to increase and the face mask requirement will help slow the spread of the virus. https://www.kmbc.com/article/kansas-gov-laura-kelly-issues-statewide-face-mask-mandate/33003505 rhampton7

Indonesia - BPOM confirms that Hydroxychloroquine is one type of drug that has been given a marketing authorization but for emergency needs. Do not just buy in an online store. Director of Drug Registration, BPOM, Dr. dra. L. Rizka Andalucia, M.Pharm, Apt said, its use must still be used in the realm of test, clinical and safety. Furthermore, the Task Force Expert for the Acceleration of Handling COVID-19 / Chair of the PDPI, Dr. dr. Agus Dwi Susanto Sp.P (K) emphasized that the use of Hydroxychloroquine and dexametcahone is meaningless for patients exposed to Covid-19 with mild and moderate conditions. "Firstly there is no second benefit to side effects," he said. The 5 recommendations for the use of Hydroxychloroquine include being used for adults under the age of 50 years. Secondly there are no heart problems, third for children with severe cases and close monitoring. Then fourthly, it must be given to inpatients, because there is ECG monitoring so it must be done at the hospital. Finally, if there are side effects must be stopped. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/tech/20200629115418-37-168710/stop-beli-dexamethasone-hydroxychloroquine-di-toko-online rhampton7

With the COVID-19 pandemic raging on unabated and no vaccine or cure in sight yet, scientists are looking at existing drugs that may help in the treatment of patients infected with this virus. Now scientists say that commonly used cholesterol-lowering statin drugs may help reduce the death rate in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. This new study from China's Wuhan University says that the use of cholesterol-lowering drugs called statins is associated with a lower death rate and a lesser incidence of mechanical ventilation in hospitalised COVID-19 patients. The findings, published in the journal Cell Metabolism, also show that mortality risk and other negative outcomes were not increased by combination therapy consisting of statins and blood pressure-lowering drugs called angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs). According to researchers, these results support the safety and potential benefits of statin therapy in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 and provide a rationale for prospective studies to determine whether statins confer protection against COVID-19-associated mortality. Statins may serve such a purpose because these drugs slow the progression of lung injury in animals, improve immune cell responses, and strongly reduce inflammation, which is likely responsible for severe COVID-19 complications such as organ damage. https://www.thehealthsite.com/news/covid-19-common-cholesterol-lowering-statin-drugs-bring-down-mortality-rates-by-19-per-cent-754582/ rhampton7

Israel’s ccoronavirus cabinet voted to roll out a series of new restrictions on Monday, as the number of people infected with the virus has continued to rise for the past month. On Monday night, the Health Ministry reported there were 432 new patients since midnight. Effective immediately, cultural events and performances will be limited to 250 people, circumcision ceremonies and funerals will be capped at 50, university final exams will be taken online except in extreme circumstances, 30% of public-sector workers will work from home and only 28 children can be included in a group at summer camps, the cabinet decided. In addition, outdoor and indoor weddings can continue with 250 attendees in open spaces until July 10, at which time indoor weddings will be limited to up to 100 guests. Communal prayers and other social gatherings will be limited to 50 people. https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/coronavirus-nearly-30000-israelis-have-been-infected-with-the-virus-633167 rhampton7

India’s prominent role as a key exporter of HCQ, despite its unproven ability to cure COVID-19, is not going unnoticed. India is donating the medicine based on two categories — “humanitarian aid” and “commercial basis.” It is being donated to SAARC, several African countries and is being sold chiefly to the US and Germany. Many political leaders are lauding India’s decision to not only lift its ban on the export of HCQ and other medicines, but to also donate it in the form of humanitarian aid. Despite the global debate regarding Hydroxychloroquine’s effectiveness in treating COVID-19, it has also become a tool for India to cement its position not only as a responsible stakeholder amidst the coronavirus, but also consolidate its standing as a leading producer of medicines in the world. For instance, India is trying to implement ways in which it reduces its dependence on China for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) by producing it locally. With the fillip accorded by its recent medical diplomacy, the government of India has planned to introduce an incentive scheme worth around INR 10,000 billion ($1.3 billion) to help the pharma sector boost domestic production of medicinal raw materials. Hence, despite the jury still being out on HCQ’s effectiveness, the export of the anti-malarial drug can help India consolidate its stature as the “pharmacy of the world”. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/understanding-confusion-over-efficacy-hydroxychloroquine-68723/ rhampton7

Raoult speaks https://bit.ly/2YHXeFe A translation of his testimony last week to the French government. Is this the Return of the Jedi after the Empire Strikes back to kill HCQ. Who knows! Raoult mentions Gilead which gets over $3,000 per patient vs $9 for the Zelenko protocol and cost of Raoult's protocol is about the same as Zelenko's. Somehow RHampton missed most of these studies. https://bit.ly/2YI0MY4 jerry

Wow. https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/06/28/texas-couple-married-years-dies-coronavirus-while-holding-hands/ Retired Physicist

RH7, the ethics-epistemological issues are innate and do not go away even if legislators insist on a gold standard fallacy. The decision theory issue of business as usual vs a credible alternative has not vanished either; there is never a justification for violating the do no harm principle to construct an artificial no treatment control in the face of a fast moving significantly fatal, quite contagious disease. In that light, there is more than adequate evidence available for those willing to be open to it, that HCQ+ cocktails credibly are effective treatments once administered early enough in the disease U. What is clear is that we have a debased mentality once ethics enter. However, oops, as first duties of reason cannot be evaded ethics inescapably governs rationality. So, the ethically debased mindset is in the end untrustworthy and irrational. That is a sobering sign for our civilisation. KF kairosfocus

It is hard to give a coherent answer to an absurd question.

If it is an absurd question, explain why it is absurd. That should not be hard if it is and would then be coherent. jerry

Acartia Eddie:

It is fair to say that the US, by whatever measure you choose, has handled this pandemic very poorly.

That is your very biased opinion, anyway. But that is all it is. ET

JVL

Almost 130,000 dead from COVID-19 in the US and the daily new cases stat is rising quickly.

I know. A couple months ago Barry vowed to make a public apology if the COVID deaths reached 200,000 by January 2021. Even I thought that was a safe bet for Barry. Does anyone today think it is an absurdly high number? It is fair to say that the US, by whatever measure you choose, has handled this pandemic very poorly. Ed George

Vice President Mike Pence met with Gov. Greg Abbott Sunday in Dallas for a briefing and news conference on the state's response to COVID-19 as cases have surged in recent weeks. The positivity rate in the state reached 14.31% Sunday, a warning sign the virus has increasingly spread across Texas communities, Abbott said earlier in the day. The rate had been down below 4.27% by the end of May. "You flattened the curve here in Texas... but about two weeks ago something changed," Pence said to the public. The two leaders were joined by a panel including Dr. Deborah Birx, a member of the White House's coronavirus task force, along with Sen. John Cornyn and HUD Secretary Dr. Ben Carson. Birx also stressed the importance of "100% compliance" with mask orders in Bexar, Dallas, Harris and Travis counties as hospitalization rates have increased over the past two weeks, particularly among younger adults with underlying health conditions. "You have 20-to 40-year-olds in the ICU [in Texas]," she explained. https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-live-updates-dallas-fort-worth-vice-president-mike-pence-north-texas-june-28/287-006076a3-2198-4def-84d8-273317039bc7 rhampton7

Cakifornia Governor Gavin Newsom on Sunday ordered bars and nightclubs closed in Los Angeles and six other counties, while recommending closures in eight others including Riverside and San Bernardino, as the state’s coronavirus caseload continued to grow. The message, posted by the governor around noon on Twitter, said that “due to the rising spread of #COVID19, CA is ordering bars to close in Fresno, Imperial, Kern, Kings, Los Angeles, San Joaquin and Tulare.” The order, the first major rollback of efforts to reopen California’s economy, was effective immediately, a spokesman for the California Health and Human Services Agency confirmed. The state also is recommending bar closures for Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Contra Costa, Stanislaus and Ventura. For those counties, a health officer order would be needed to make closing bars there mandatory. https://www.pe.com/2020/06/28/california-governor-orders-some-bars-including-in-l-a-county-to-close-as-u-s-posts-record-covid-cases/ rhampton7

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a news conference Sunday in Pensacola that interactions among young people are driving the surge. Meanwhile in Broward County, home to Fort Lauderdale, authorities said they would be closing beaches during the busy Fourth of July weekend following the decision of Miami-Dade County to close theirs between July 3 and July 7. State officials on Friday announced a ban on alcohol consumption at bars, and DeSantis explained Sunday there was “widespread non-compliance.” Several restaurants were shut down over the weekend in Broward County for not following rules restricting capacity and mandating the use of masks. “It has invariably been because they packed so many people in and created a type of environment that we are trying to avoid,” DeSantis said. “Caution was thrown to the wind and so we are where we are.” https://wset.com/news/coronavirus/more-florida-beaches-to-close-amid-virus-surge rhampton7

A large study of 3,119 people treated with the “Raoult protocol” was published on June 25 by the team from the IHU Méditerranée Infection. It has not convinced several epidemiologists on the effectiveness of the treatment proposed by the Marseille infectiologist, writes Le Monde. However, the opinion of several epidemiologists does not coincide with this conclusion. "No one at home," said Dominique Costagliola, deputy director of the Pierre-Louis Institute of epidemiology and public health (Sorbonne University, Inserm). For her, the comparison between the treated patients and the others is not valid: the former are on average younger and have less severe symptoms and lung damage. "What can we say? We compare cabbage and carrots and even by adjusting the size of the leaves it remains cabbage and carrots ”, underlines the pharmacologist and pulmonologist Mathieu Molimard of the University of Bordeaux. Anton Pottegard, professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the University of Southern Denmark, says he does not "trust" the results of the study. "Why? Because it does not meet the most basic requirements to which it should subscribe. There are many problems, each of which is of great concern. Taken together, they make this study 100% useless to guide clinical practice. ” M.Pottegard explains that treated patients are compared to people who are not. “The main problem is that those who do not survive treatment are classified as untreated. I could suggest a new clinical trial: kiss the patients on the forehead for three days. I would compare those who would have received the three kisses to those ... who would not have survived to receive them. The effect of the treatment would be great: none of the patients who received my treatment would have died. ” https://fr.sputniknews.com/france/202006281044017863-nul-de-chez-nul-une-nouvelle-etude-de-didier-raoult-sous-le-feu-des-critiques/ rhampton7

LoL! When you take it out of context it may seem absurd. If you remain willfully ignorant to all explanations, it may also seem absurd. ET

Jerry

I asked the question. There was no coherent answer. So my guess is that one doesn’t exist.

It is hard to give a coherent answer to an absurd question. Ed George

I asked the question. There was no coherent answer. So my guess is that one doesn't exist. Ed George came closest. He essentially said ignore the virus and go about your business. That is what we do with the flu, rabbles and meningitis using his examples. jerry

With the rise of the number of cases the IFR is decreasing. Think of the flu without a vaccine. ET

Acartia Eddie:

Who says we all have to get it.

What do you think the vaccine will contain? ET

Jerry @ 410

I will ask again and see if I get a coherent reply. Why is the spread of the virus a negative thing if we all have to get it eventually? It is not going away into oblivion so will always be there in someone, someplace. It is unlikely an effective vaccine will be available anytime soon. I hope I am wrong.

I suspect anyone who dies from this disease would think it was a negative outcome - assuming there is anything left of that person that is capable of thinking. The relatives and friends who survive them are almost certain to regard it as a negative outcome. It's a more invidious outcome of the disease than having to practice preventive measures like the wearing of masks and social distancing and isolation. While such measures are unquestionably inconvenient they are a lot less inconvenient than death. And, hopefully, we will soon have proven drug therapies and vaccines ready to deploy by next year. Surely, we can hang on 'til then. I agree that the economic, financial and personal consequences of widespread lockdown should not be underestimated and I'm sure businesses are looking for ways of re-opening safely but what's concerning are the continued outbreaks at meat-packing plants in spite of the widespread implementation of protective measures. That's no reason to give the fight, however. Seversky

Ed George: Maybe Jerry just wants to get the dying part over quickly. I'm sure we can create mass graves just like the one Mozart was initially buried in. Almost 130,000 dead from COVID-19 in the US and the daily new cases stat is rising quickly. JVL

Jerry

Why is the spread of the virus a negative thing if we all have to get it eventually?

Who says we all have to get it. We don’t all get the flu every year. We don’t all get rabies. We don’t all get meningitis. We don’t all get Ebola. Ed George

I will ask again and see if I get a coherent reply. Why is the spread of the virus a negative thing if we all have to get it eventually? It is not going away into oblivion so will always be there in someone, someplace. It is unlikely an effective vaccine will be available anytime soon. I hope I am wrong. So are we to lead semi-hermit lives forever? I know people are scared that they or a loved one might get it and die or they will give it to someone who might die. But is prevention worse than the non-prevention? RHampton provides a daily litany of the increase in cases as if that is a terrible thing. Is it? jerry

"We've doubled the amount of our testing nationally. We've got to double it again. That is probably the most important thing that we can do," Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday. "I really think we need to look at a greater use of the Defense Production Act so that we can make sure that supply keeps up with the demand that we know is going to continue growing." In Arkansas, the number of coronavirus cases rose steadily throughout the month of June, leading Hutchinson to halt the state's reopening plans this week -- becoming one of at least 10 states that have stopped or reversed their plans amid increasing numbers. "We're clearly on pause here in the state in terms of moving to lift further restrictions until we're comfortable with where we are in controlling the spread," Hutchinson said Thursday, as the state topped 10,000 coronavirus cases for the month of June. https://www.yahoo.com/gma/arkansas-governor-calls-trump-invoke-defense-production-act-160029201--abc-news-topstories.html rhampton7

On June 24, facing the commission of inquiry of the National Assembly charged with examining the management of the Covid-19 pandemic in France, the infectiologist Didier Raoult let go of his equanimity in the face of the final question asked by the deputy MoDem du Gard Philippe Berta: "why did you not conduct a clinical study worthy of the name, from the start, which could definitively answer, yes or no, hydroxychloroquine has an effect? You knew very well that these pseudo-clinical trials were absolutely not admissible by anyone , ” asked the parliamentarian, who is also a geneticist. Stung on the spot, the Marseille infectious disease specialist countered that “the fewer people there are in a trial, the more significant it is. (…)Any essay that involves more than 1,000 people tries to demonstrate something that does not exist. " Before you exclaim: " I am a great scientist! " https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/06/28/hydroxychloroquine-la-derniere-etude-de-didier-raoult-ne-convainc-pas-nombre-d-epidemiologistes_6044435_3244.html rhampton7

This just proves that if people aren't going to do anything beyond washing hands and wearing masks, there are going to be virus and bacteria issues. At a MINIMUM the people, all people, should be following the prophylaxis outlined in EVMS CRITICAL CARE COVID-19 MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL. It boggles the mind that this sort of thing isn't front and center. We don't have anything to lose by at least trying it population wide. ET

“Dr. (Don) Williamson, Alabama Hospital Association president and CEO, said that Tuesday saw the most COVID-19 hospitalizations yet in Alabama, and that it also marked the most new hospitalizations in one day yet in Alabama. Furthermore, he noted there were 888 ventilators in use. For a frame of reference, the most we had in use at EAMC at one time was 29.” Laura Grill, EAMC president, and CEO says those numbers are especially troublesome given that the start of a new school year is only six weeks away, and flu season follows shortly thereafter. “As a nation, as a state, and as a community, we must find a way to both contain COVID-19 and go about our daily lives as best as possible,” Grill says. “We were doing okay for a while after the Safe-at-Home restrictions were lifted, but we’re returning to high levels of transmission in the community again. Many of our hospitals in Alabama are overwhelmed right now, and I’m concerned we could soon be right back there with them.” https://www.wrbl.com/alabama-news-2/opelika-police-chief-sick-with-covid-19-says-virus-is-no-joke/ rhampton7

I get it, but the data from these present studies should reflect 1- what the drug was supposed to do and 2- what it did. A blanket "it didn't work" or "was ineffective", is useless. Again I refer to the patients pH levels and, as Jerry keeps pointing out, how far along the infection is. Then when zinc is involved, that data- with respect to what the zinc is supposed to be doing- is essential. It's like setting up a Rube Goldberg machine, have it fail and just report that it failed. You know what was supposed to happen. Figure out why it didn't. ET

ET, there has been of course, some research. That's why we know enough to raise those issues. Our problem as a civilisation, at core, is that we have lost sight of the first duties of reason and have instead become caught up in nihilistic positivism, evolutionary materialistic scientism, ideologies, dubious agendas and frankly the corrupting power of money. In this regard, the academy has betrayed its solemn duty. When this awful Spring is over, we have some serious reckoning to do with duties to truth, to right reason [so, to logic including inductive logic], to prudence [so, to warrant], to sound conscience [so, to ethics], to neighbour, so also to fairness and justice etc. Such duties are inescapable, even the objector is forced to appeal to them; they are self-evident and loaded with worldviews import. The restoration of such to their rightful place is the way to reformation of the intellectual life of our civilisation, as well as law, justice and government. KF kairosfocus

Seversky & EG, you carry not one iota of the earned renown of the man whose reputation you would trash. Trash, for the crime of producing, supervising, writing and publishing inconvenient evidence regarding treatments you have followed the partyline in trashing. Well, we have taken your measure and understand not only how it applies to this case but to many others. Including of course, the design inference. When the toxic dust and smoke settles after this awful Spring, not only medicine but science and our intellectual culture will have to reckon with an ethical-epistemological crisis. And not all the Red Guards, now utterly discredited media agit prop operatives, shadowy backers, mere Internet trolls and such like in the world will be able to stop that reckoning as the first steps to patently needed reformation. KF kairosfocus

The 35-year-old associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine leads the school's Center for Cytokine Storm Treatment & Laboratory. The 13 members of Fajgenbaum's lab recruited dozens of other scientific colleagues to join their coronavirus effort. And what this group is finding has ramifications for scientists globally. Researchers working with his lab have reviewed published data on more than 150 drugs doctors around the world have to treat nearly 50,000 patients diagnosed with Covid-19. They've made their analysis public in a database called the Covid-19 Registry of Off-label & New Agents (or CORONA for short). It's a central repository of all available data in scientific journals on all the therapies used so far to curb the pandemic. This information can help doctors treat patients and tell researchers how to build clinical trials. the best insights come from running double-blind placebo-controlled studies. One shortfall is that many of the published studies just don't have the level of rigor to inform larger-scale scientific decision-making. "There are a lot of biases in these observational studies," Fajgenbaum said. One drug, the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine, has famously received a lot of boosterism from US President Donald Trump. But in the published studies available for Fajgenbaum's team to review, the drug hasn't outperformed others. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/27/health/coronavirus-treatment-fajgenbaum-drug-review-scn-wellness/index.html rhampton7

Patients who were in the intensive care unit or on a ventilator for weeks will need to spend extensive time in rehab to regain mobility and strength. “It can take up to seven days for every one day that you’re hospitalized to recover that type of strength,” Khan said. “It’s harder the older you are, and you may never get back to the same level of function.” While much of the focus has been on the minority of patients who experience severe disease, doctors increasingly are looking to the needs of patients who were not sick enough to require hospitalization, but are still suffering months after first becoming infected. Studies are just getting underway to understand the long-term effects of infection, Jay Butler, deputy director of infectious diseases at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters in a telephone briefing on Thursday. While coronavirus symptoms typically resolve in two or three weeks, an estimated 1 in 10 experience prolonged symptoms, Dr. Helen Salisbury of the University of Oxford wrote in the British Medical Journal on Tuesday. Dr. Igor Koralnik, chief of neuro-infectious diseases at Northwestern Medicine, reviewed current scientific literature and found about half of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had neurological complications, such as dizziness, decreased alertness, difficulty concentrating, disorders of smell and taste, seizures, strokes, weakness and muscle pain. https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/scientists-just-beginning-to-understand-the-many-health-problems-caused-by-covid-19 rhampton7

As coronavirus cases and hospitalizations surge in Mississippi, health care professionals worry what that will mean for hospitals — some of which have intensive care units that are filling up or already full. While the number of hospitalizations are also at an all time high, the number of COVID-19 patients in ICUs have not spiked. State health officials said an increase might come soon. "There's a sequence from hospitalization and then ICU," State Health Officer Dr. Thomas Dobbs said at a news conference Thursday about the rise in infections. "I'm absolutely terrified we're going to overwhelm the health care system and the hospitals and ICU, not in the fall, which is something I was worried about previously, but now I'm worried about next week or two weeks from now." The surge of cases appears to come from large-scale community transmission, he said, citing "parties, barbecues, social events" as activities contributing to the spread. “It is so selfish for people to be out doing stuff, perpetuating this pandemic for nothing more than a crawfish boil,” Dobbs said. https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2020/06/27/some-mississippi-icus-full-what-does-mean-surging-covid-cases/3258107001/ rhampton7

These are the recommendations of the International Commmittee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE)

Defining the Role of Authors and Contributors

Who Is an Author?

The ICMJE recommends that authorship be based on the following 4 criteria: Substantial contributions to the conception or design of the work; or the acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data for the work; AND Drafting the work or revising it critically for important intellectual content; AND Final approval of the version to be published; AND Agreement to be accountable for all aspects of the work in ensuring that questions related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are appropriately investigated and resolved. In addition to being accountable for the parts of the work he or she has done, an author should be able to identify which co-authors are responsible for specific other parts of the work. In addition, authors should have confidence in the integrity of the contributions of their co-authors. All those designated as authors should meet all four criteria for authorship, and all who meet the four criteria should be identified as authors. Those who do not meet all four criteria should be acknowledged—see Section II.A.3 below. These authorship criteria are intended to reserve the status of authorship for those who deserve credit and can take responsibility for the work. The criteria are not intended for use as a means to disqualify colleagues from authorship who otherwise meet authorship criteria by denying them the opportunity to meet criterion #s 2 or 3. Therefore, all individuals who meet the first criterion should have the opportunity to participate in the review, drafting, and final approval of the manuscript.

[…]

Non-Author Contributors Contributors who meet fewer than all 4 of the above criteria for authorship should not be listed as authors, but they should be acknowledged. Examples of activities that alone (without other contributions) do not qualify a contributor for authorship are acquisition of funding; general supervision of a research group or general administrative support; and writing assistance, technical editing, language editing, and proofreading. Those whose contributions do not justify authorship may be acknowledged individually or together as a group under a single heading (e.g. "Clinical Investigators" or "Participating Investigators"), and their contributions should be specified (e.g., "served as scientific advisors," "critically reviewed the study proposal," "collected data," "provided and cared for study patients", "participated in writing or technical editing of the manuscript")

Seversky

LoL! @ Acartia Eddie- You should NOT be talking about ethics as you don't understand the word. ET

KF

Severrsky, it is clear that you refuse to recognise realities of multiple authorship in what is in effect a research factory. KF

The standard practice, and ethical practice, is to only include your name on a paper if you had a significant input into its production. Ed George

If there was actual research into the efficacy of HCQ against covid-19 then we would be reading about the patients' pH levels. That no one is talking about pH tells me the researchers don't understand how HCQ is supposed to work. And if there was actual research into the efficacy of HCQ and zinc, then we should be reading about the patients' cellular zinc level. And yet we do not. ET

This sounds like it will be a valuable addition to the resources we need to get COVID-19 under control

After saving his own life with a repurposed drug, a professor reviews every drug being tried against Covid-19. Here's what he's found

Every morning, Dr. David Fajgenbaum takes three life-saving pills. He wakes up his 21-month-old daughter Amelia to help feed her. He usually grabs some Greek yogurt to eat quickly before sitting down in his home office. Then he spends most of the next 14 hours leading dozens of fellow researchers and volunteers in a systematic review of all the drugs that physicians and researchers have used so far to treat Covid-19. His team has already pored over more than 8,000 papers on how to treat coronavirus patients. The 35-year-old associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine leads the school's Center for Cytokine Storm Treatment & Laboratory. For the last few years, he has dedicated his life to studying Castleman disease, a rare condition that nearly claimed his life. Against epic odds, he found a drug that saved his own life six years ago, by creating a collaborative method for organizing medical research that could be applicable to thousands of human diseases.

[…]

Researchers working with his lab have reviewed published data on more than 150 drugs doctors around the world have to treat nearly 50,000 patients diagnosed with Covid-19. They've made their analysis public in a database called the Covid-19 Registry of Off-label & New Agents (or CORONA for short). It's a central repository of all available data in scientific journals on all the therapies used so far to curb the pandemic. This information can help doctors treat patients and tell researchers how to build clinical trials.

[…]

The combination of antivirals lopinavir and ritonavir is the Covid-19 treatment protocol with the most number of studies published so far. As of mid-June, the team had looked at papers on that drug pairing involving more than 4,500 patients.

[…]

He feels particularly elated about a recent United Kingdom-based study on the steroid dexamethasone. The study garnered headlines for its result showing that a low-dose 10-day regimen of the drug could reduce the risk of death by a third among hospitalized patients requiring ventilation. In their spreadsheets, the numbers around dexamethasone were like a beacon. "We built CORONA to help uncover something like dexamethasone," he said. "It's a cheap repurposed drug that's been around for 60 years. This is what it's all about."

[…]

One drug, the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine, has famously received a lot of boosterism from US President Donald Trump. But in the published studies available for Fajgenbaum's team to review, the drug hasn't outperformed others Two French studies on hydroxychloroquine drew red flags for the University of Pennsylvania-based team because of the clinical end point the researchers chose: the time when the coronavirus cleared the body. It can be problematic to base an argument for a drug's success only on that particular metric, because it leaves out crucial details from a person's longer-term experience following infection. "'Virally cured' is a challenging term," Fajgenbaum said. "We don't know if they're discharged how they fared after leaving the hospital." On top of that, the reviewers were skeptical because the virus took a long time to leave the patients' bodies, which they refer to as "a high time to viral clearance." That indicator that could suggest the drug was slow to take effect, or that other factors, including the patient's own immune system, played a larger role in expelling the pathogen.

Seversky

F/N: Dr Raoult before the parliamentary commission: http://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20200625-controversial-french-doctor-slams-government-covid-19-response-parliament-inquiry >> French virologist Didier Raoult denounced the government's ‘archaic’ virus testing and ban on an anti-malarial drug to treat Covid-19 patients at a parliament hearing on Wednesday. The doctor, who advocates the use of hydroxychloroquine to combat Covid-19, accused his critics of a conflict of interest with pharmaceutical companies. Didier Raoult was quizzed by lawmakers for over three hours on Wednesday, as they sought to evaluate the government’s handling of the health crisis and Raoult’s role in it. The head of a university hospital institute in Marseille, Raoult became France’s best-known doctor in late February after announcing a potential cure [--> treatment is likely a better rendering] for the coronavirus. In March he joined the country’s scientific council set up to advise the government on how to respond to the pandemic. Shortly after his appointment Raoult walked out. "This was not a scientific council," he told lawmakers, criticising the body’s lack of experience. "I have one in Marseille, which is the envy of the whole world. It is not made up of guys who work amongst themselves and address each other informally in terms such as 'and you, what do you think ?'" he explained. Raoult reproaches the council's members for taking political decisions that did not concern them, including modelling the trajectory of the disease. "You have to be insane to think that you can predict the evolution of a virus that we don't know," he commented. Tests were possible What was also crazy in Raoult's opinion was the government's policy on testing. "I do not agree with the decision not to do tests," he explained. "From the month of March, the World Health Organization urged countries to test massively," Raoult told lawmakers. At the time, Health Minister Olivier Veran called for a "rational and reasonable use of tests," amid fears of a shortage of Covid-19 test kits. "There was a mechanism set up: since we can't do tests, tests are not important. But this was not true. We could carry out tests," he insisted, slamming what he described as the governments "archaic" organisation. Ban a mistake The ferocity of his attacks however were reserved for the state's ban on anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine, a related compound of chloroquine. "In 2019, 36 million hydroxychloroquine tablets were given out without a prescription!" Raoult said. "Then all of a sudden, we are no longer allowed to use it? The person who helped make this decision made a mistake." [--> so the report I picked up that it may be OTC in some places c 2019 was true] The French government banned the drug in May after the publication of a Lancet observational study of 15,000 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, which showed the health risks were considerably greater. Raoult denounced the Lancet study as “bogus”. [--> the Lancet study had to be withdrawn] Shortly afterwards, the medical journal withdrew the study after three of its authors retracted it, citing concerns about the quality and veracity of data in it. Raoult said the incident was an attempt by his critics to discredit his hydroxychloroquine cure, combined with antibacterial drug, azithromycin. He accused them of working for American pharmaceutical company Gilead, which sought to promote its own drug known as remdesivir. Conflict of interest The infectious disease expert said it was no coincidence that Gilead's shares had increased on the stock market on the back of the success of its clinical trial of the anti-viral treatment. "When I first talked about chloroquine, I was threatened several times by the man who received the most money from Gilead in six years," Raoult told lawmakers. "I recommend that you do an investigation on Gilead and remdesivir. If you look at its structure, it has very few products, and staff but a lot of influence." Pressed for precise details by lawmakers, Raoult referred them to the website Transparence Santé, which tracks potential conflicts of interest between companies and health workers. "Everything I'm telling you is on line, it's as simple as cabbage, you can verify everything," he said.>> He is indubitably a colourful character of a type familiar from the French intelligentsia, but it seems he has a point or two we need to pay attention to. KF kairosfocus

Sev, Raoult is not an independent researcher but head of an institute with 80+ researchers located in a hospital cluster with 3500 or so beds. That's why he could do so many tests including multiple CT scans on nearly 600 patients. The paper identifies that at that point where symptoms bring one to the doctor, significant lung damage is there. That's why v early mild case treatment regimes are so vital a necessity. KF kairosfocus

Folks, for cause, I repeat:

the data on record speak, and speak with sufficient force. The ethical-epistemological challenge also speaks. It is going to take a long time but medicine, its administration and research are going to change when the dust, clouds and poison of this spring settle.

We now have good cause to hold that the medical establishment and linked treatment research have become ethically bankrupt and epistemologically blind. That will not end well. KF kairosfocus

Severrsky, it is clear that you refuse to recognise realities of multiple authorship in what is in effect a research factory. KF kairosfocus

https://scontent.fymy1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/105963278_10156836033362257_4252172223397361093_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&_nc_sid=8024bb&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_ohc=fHI8m9PyRw8AX9-OvSW&_nc_ht=scontent.fymy1-1.fna&_nc_tp=14&oh=4a0487133c877fe20a9fccb3f064199b&oe=5F1BBE7D Ed George

In other words, independent research into hydrochloroquine has not provided corroboration for the claims Dr Raoult has made for the drug, He is resorting to what amounts to a conspiracy theory in order to defend his position whilst still deflecting questions about how he could have co-authored an improbably high number of published papers. Seversky

Korea is carrying out 13 clinical trials on treatments and two studies on vaccines related to Covid-19, the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety said Friday The nation is conducting two phase-3, four phase-2, and seven investigator-initiated trials. Of the 13 Covid-19 treatments under trials, four were developed by Korean and are phase 2 trials. All five studies on hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug found to have no therapeutic effect on Covid-19, have been terminated. http://m.koreabiomed.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=8614 rhampton7

Didier Raoult accused opponents of chloroquine of conflicts of interest with Gilead Sciences during his hearing in the National Assembly on Wednesday Professor Didier Raoult was heard at length by the deputies in the National Assembly, where he spoke about Gilead, a Californian pharmaceutical laboratory. He notably claimed to have identified the doctor "who had received the most money from Gilead in six years". He advised the deputies to go and check “conflicts of interest” with the scientific council on the sites dedicated to transparency in the health field. But the operation is not so simple. A little earlier in the hearing, Didier Raoult had said about the relations between certain members of the scientific council and the pharmaceutical laboratories: “All of this is transparent. Look on the Internet, it's easy as cabbage. And the professor to quote the sites "Transparency Health" and "Euros For Docs". We followed the advice of Didier Raoult, but the procedure is not exactly "easy as cabbage". A database listing, on declarations by companies, the “links of interest” between pharmaceutical laboratories and health professionals was officially launched in June 2014 to improve “confidence” between users and the world of medical research. after the Mediator scandal . But Transparency Health is difficult to read and difficult to use. Concretely, unless you start a manual search of all the doctors having links of interest with Gilead Sciences and compare the amounts involved, it is not possible, at this stage, to affirm that a doctor has received more money from Gilead. Because each declaration should be added up in each of the three categories (benefits, agreements, remuneration) for each health professional concerned. For Gilead, there are, for example, nearly 115,000 entries. The Euros For Docs collective , mentioned by Professor Raoult, precisely wants to “simplify access” to the Transparency Health database to explore lobbying in the health industries. This database has already been used by the media. A collective of journalists in the region, Data + Local, used it for its #TransparenceCHU surveys, published in January. Thus, for Gilead Sciences, the laboratory has declared 63.3 million euros in interest links since 2014. But this tool also has its limits: it is not possible to classify the total amount spent by a company for each practitioner. The platform gives, however, the possibility of consulting the total amount of the links of interests between a doctor and a company. But, again, to be able to say that a health professional is the one who received the most money, one would have to compare him with all the other practitioners, one by one. Finally, let's come back to the identification of the author of the threats. An investigation for "acts of intimidation, but not death threats" is underway, conducted by the Nantes prosecution. We remind you, the presumption of innocence prevails and Didier Raoult is not justified in designating, even without naming him, the author of the threats before he is found guilty. https://www.20minutes.fr/societe/2807951-20200626-coronavirus-simple-comme-chou-verifier-liens-entre-medecins-laboratoires-pharmaceutiques-comme-dit-didier-raoult rhampton7

Faced with Jean-Jacques Bourdin , who asked D. Raoult "why this treatment has not been administered on the whole planet [ if it is ] so effective" , the infectious disease specialist and director of the IHU Méditerranée Infection undertook to cite many examples from across the globe : “There are 4.5 billion people worldwide who live in countries where hydroxychloroquine is recommended for the treatment of Covid . […] In Brazil, in the USA, in China, and Inside, in Korea . Before nuancing : "In the United States , it is not generally recommended. " "There is 4.5 billion people live in countries where it is recommended (...) I I know this disease , better than others (...) Nobody has the data we have on the legacy " ???? Didier Raoult , infectiologist #BourdinDirect pic.twitter.com/Gn0okDq26g "In India , in China, throughout the Far East , in all the countries of the Maghreb , half of the countries of black Africa , a large part of South America ... When you count all that , it makes 4 , 5 billion people ” , finally concluded Didier Raoult . https://fr.ebene-magazine.com/lhydroxychloroquine-est-elle-recommandee-dans-les-pays-cites-par-raoult/ rhampton7

RH7, the data on record speak, and speak with sufficient force. The ethical-epistemological challenge also speaks. It is going to take a long time but medicine, its administration and research are going to change when the dust, clouds and poison of this spring settle. KF kairosfocus

A report by the Coronavirus National Information and Knowledge Center showed that Israel is now averaging more than 400 new cases per day for the past three days. The ages of people diagnosed with the virus are still tending to be younger, with about 90% being under the age of 60. In order to help stop the spread of the virus, Israel Police are stepping up enforcement across the country to catch and fine people who are not wearing masks and fine or even shut down businesses that are not adhering to the Health Ministry's "Purple Ribbon" standards. In Jerusalem, Police said they visited 18 businesses overnight Thursday and fined a number of them. They also carried out an operation focused on event halls, restaurants, cafes and recreational spaces. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/gov-to-provide-special-rewards-to-coronavirus-testing-lab-workers-632896 rhampton7

Both Florida and Texas have reversed course on coronavirus reopening by once again closing bars. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott shut down bars in Texas again on Friday and scaled back restaurant dining, the most dramatic reversals yet as confirmed coronavirus cases surge. “At this time, it is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars," Abbott said. “The actions in this executive order are essential to our mission to swiftly contain this virus and protect public health.” He did not say when bars might reopen again. https://www.nola.com/news/business/article_fbb7ee42-b7db-11ea-bc19-5f70d3955bab.html rhampton7

Another bit from the testimony: “We see that there is 20% [fewer deaths] with hydroxychloroquine " — D Raoult • What Didier Raoult said. Before the deputies who questioned him about the effectiveness of his treatment, Professor Didier Raoult said: "We report 4,500 people who were hospitalized in Paris and [we] see that there are 20% fewer deaths with hydroxychloroquine. " • Why it is questionable. Currently, no scientific data or study, apart from that much disputed by Professor Didier Raoult, allow us to affirm as categorically that hydroxychloroquine is effective, and therefore that this treatment could have prevented deaths, particularly in Paris. Worse, the potentially harmful effects of hydroxychloroquine in the event of self-medication or incorrect prescription, all the more with drugs like azithromycin, have been proven, recalls L'Express (paying article). Another defender of hydroxychloroquine, Professor Christian Perronne, head of the infectious diseases department of Garches hospital (Hauts-de-Seine), had already put forward the supposed benefits of this drug by ensuring that the treatment promoted by Didier Raoult would have prevented 25,000 deaths if it had been widely prescribed in France. The remarks outraged a group of French infectious disease specialists, who on Tuesday issued harsh criticisms in a statement. "Based on the solid data available to date, it can be affirmed that: the prescription of hydroxychloroquine to patients affected by Covid-19 has not proven its effectiveness, rigorous studies carried out by teams without a priori, at the international level, all concluded on the absence of profit, while the risk of death linked to misuse is itself perfectly proven ", they detail. The debate is not over on the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine. But this figure of "20% [fewer deaths]" cannot be used as validated data and subject to scientific consensus. https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-on-a-verifie-sept-affirmations-de-didier-raoult-devant-la-commission-denquete-covid-19-de-lassemblee-nationale_4021607.html rhampton7

I wonder if anyone has even tried OTC supplements. For example Cell Power changes your body's pH and should be as effective, in that regard, as is HCQ. At least two papers have been written of the efficacy of vitamin D in warding off covid-19. The IDSA should be looking into that. Then there is zinc and quercetin. Zinc already has enough studies to support its effectiveness with respect to bacteria and viruses. Quercetin is an ionophore. ET

The Infectious Diseases Society of America updated the treatment portion of its COVID-19 management guidelines, making more specific recommendations for medications. “Back in April when we first issued these guidelines, there were really no medications that were known to be effective against COVID-19, but that has changed,” said Rajesh T. Gandhi, MD, FIDSA, a member of the guidelines committee, during a press briefing on Friday. On the question of hydroxychloroquine, the panel recommended against its use as routine care for COVID-19 patients, although the drug might be considered in the context of a clinical trial. Shmuel Shoham, MD, FID-SA, also a member of the panel, said more and more evidence is pointing away from the value of hydroxychlo-roquine for COVID-19. “Despite everybody’s hopes that we would have cheap, easy, well-known drugs—such as chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine or hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin—that those will be available and effective, it just hasn’t panned out yet,” Dr. Shoham said, “which is not to say that all the studies are done. But what's come through is not encouraging that that’s going to be a great option.” https://www.idse.net/Covid-19/Article/06-20/IDSA-Updates-COVID-19-Treatment-Guidelines/58829 rhampton7

I posted an accusation that was made in France’s governmental hearing on its COVID response, and then commented on by a member of the French press. There is a big difference. rhampton7

RH7, you have made an accusation that refuses to reckon with the ethical-epistemological issue, in the teeth of significant evidence of significantly reduced poor outcomes. That tells us what we need to know. KF kairosfocus

Jerry, that looks like the final published article, where the Abstract is in the OP. KF kairosfocus

Would remdevisir have been preferred to hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of coronavirus? This is the question that is asked, after the barely veiled accusations formulated by Didier Raoult, Wednesday June 24, during his long hearing by the parliamentary commission of inquiry of the National Assembly on the management of health crisis. The day after this river hearing, it was the turn of his colleague, the infectious disease specialist Karine Lacombe, whom he spent time with during his short visit to the Scientific Council, the body responsible for accompanying the executive in the crisis management, responding to accusations. “I never had the feeling that there was one drug more advanced than another. On the contrary, we were pushed to set up the tests necessary to show that certain drugs were effective, and perhaps more than standard care, "she said in the National Assembly, in response to the accusations by Didier Raoult on conflicts of interest which would have favored the remdesivir of the Gilead laboratory against the Covid-19, even speaking of "obsession with wanting to treat people with". Quoting for example a link of interest, since declassified, of infectious disease specialist Yazdan Yazdanpanah, with the pharmaceutical giant. Less clear cut, the head of the infectious diseases department of Saint-Antoine hospital admitted to having "no proof that there was no (...) conflict of interest, hidden funding. I pronounces me as a doctor, who has been in contact with certain members "of these bodies. "I cannot believe that in such an exceptional health situation, there was on the part of the Scientific Council, the HAS (High Health Authority, Editor's note) or the Medicines Agency (ANSM), slowing the arrival on the market of drugs, (...) simply because there was a laboratory, as powerful as it may be ", which would have exerted its influence, she added. https://www.lci.fr/sante/coronavirus-conseil-scientifique-conflits-d-interet-hydroxy-chloroquine-remdevisirl-infectiologue-karine-lacombe-repond-a-didier-raoult-2157635.html rhampton7

To hide the great weakness of his studies - a point on which the scientific community agrees -, the researcher has chosen to grossly divert attention. Never since the start of the pandemic Didier Raoult had been so far in his statements. Heard on Wednesday by the parliamentary commission of inquiry into the management of the Covid-19 crisis , the Marseille researcher made very serious accusations of all-out conflicts of interest. According to him, the torpedoing of hydroxychloroquine in France would be due to collusion between health decision-makers and the American laboratory Gilead, promoter of a much more lucrative antiviral, the remdesivir. "I recommend that you make a real inquiry into Gilead and remdesivir it " , he repeated to the confused deputies, before affirming to have never "seen such a level of influence" , in particular within the council scientist. "I was surprised to see that the director of Gilead, in front of the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister, was familiar with the one who was in charge of therapeutic trials in France for the Covid-19" , he added. https://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/societe/pr-raoult-les-conflits-d-interets-ont-ils-coule-la-chloroquine-20200625 rhampton7

RHampton missed this

Outcomes of 3,737 COVID-19 patients treated with hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin and other regimens in Marseille, France: A retrospective analysis

Raoult publishes https://bit.ly/3dyV9Q4

Background In our institute in Marseille, France, we initiated early and massive screening for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hospitalization and early treatment with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (HCQ-AZ) was proposed for the positive cases. Methods We retrospectively report the clinical management of 3,737 screened patients, including 3,119 (83.5%) treated with HCQ-AZ (200?mg of oral HCQ, three times daily for ten days and 500?mg of oral AZ on day 1 followed by 250?mg daily for the next four days, respectively) for at least three days and 618 (16.5%) patients treated with other regimen (“others”). Outcomes were death, transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU), ?10 days of hospitalization and viral shedding. Results The patients’ mean age was 45 (sd 17) years, 45% were male, and the case fatality rate was 0.9%. We performed 2,065 low-dose computed tomography (CT) scans highlighting lung lesions in 592 of the 991 (59.7%) patients with minimal clinical symptoms (NEWS score?=?0). A discrepancy between spontaneous dyspnoea, hypoxemia and lung lesions was observed. Clinical factors (age, comorbidities, NEWS-2 score), biological factors (lymphocytopenia; eosinopenia; decrease in blood zinc; and increase in D-dimers, lactate dehydrogenase, creatinine phosphokinase, and C-reactive protein) and moderate and severe lesions detected in low-dose CT scans were associated with poor clinical outcome. Treatment with HCQ-AZ was associated with a decreased risk of transfer to ICU or death (Hazard ratio (HR) 0.18 0.11–0.27), decreased risk of hospitalization ?10 days (odds ratios 95% CI 0.38 0.27–0.54) and shorter duration of viral shedding (time to negative PCR: HR 1.29 1.17–1.42). QTc prolongation (>60?ms) was observed in 25 patients (0.67%) leading to the cessation of treatment in 12 cases including 3 cases with QTc> 500?ms. No cases of torsade de pointe or sudden death were observed. Conclusion Although this is a retrospective analysis, results suggest that early diagnosis, early isolation and early treatment of COVID-19 patients, with at least 3 days of HCQ-AZ lead to a significantly better clinical outcome and a faster viral load reduction than other treatments.

jerry

And in Massachusetts the cases keep going down. Hospitalizations are down 50%. Pretty much all across New England the cases are going down. What's stupid is that we allow people to travel to hot spots and come back without quarantining them or at least testing them. Should be part of the ticket price. ET

The Health Ministry on Thursday evening reported 668 new cases of coronavirus in Israel in the past 24 hours, as Military Intelligence called for drastic steps to curb this fresh resurgence of the virus. Military Intelligence on Thursday issued a report recommending the government reconsider its decision to lift public restrictions imposed due to the spread of coronavirus. The IDF warned that Israel is entering a second wave of the pandemic, and that it will be no less severe than the first. The Education Ministry announced on Thursday that 837 students and staff are ill with COVID-19 and 230 schools and educational institutions have been closed after having cases of the virus detected among their members. A total of 22,850 teachers and educational staff are currently in preventive quarantine. https://www.ynetnews.com/article/Sya8NUGRL rhampton7

According to the TN Dept. of Health, there have been 95 people hospitalized with coronavirus in the past 48 hours, the most in a two-day period since the Covid-19 pandemic began. Currently, there are 475 people hospitalized with coronavirus across the state. It’s the highest cumulative number since the outbreak began, as well. Five days ago, there were 395 people hospitalized with Covid-19. Since that time, the number of cumulative hospitalizations has increased by just over 20%. Between 1 in 4 and 1 in 5 patients who are hospitalized with coronavirus in Tennessee have died since the pandemic reached the Volunteer State. The vast majority of people who are infected with coronavirus experience mild symptoms — or no symptoms at all. However, the prognosis worsens among people who are ill enough to require hospitalization. http://www.ihoneida.com/2020/06/25/tennessees-covid-19-hospitalizations-are-rising/ rhampton7

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo shared some good news in the state's coronavirus fight on Thursday morning. "Today NY reached a new milestone," Cuomo tweeted. "Total hospitalizations fell to 996 — dropping below 1K for the first time since March 18th." Now, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are issuing a travel advisory and requiring visitors from states with high coronavirus infection rates to quarantine for 14 days. Cuomo said Wednesday the advisory is being put in place to protect gains the states has made in beating back COVID-19. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-york-coronavirus-hospitalizations-drop-below-1000-lowest-march/ rhampton7

The U.S. is still relying on Indian factories that were previously banned to import hydroxychloroquine needed by lupus and rheumatoid-arthritis patients even after the drug fell out of favor as a Covid-19 treatment. In March, the Food and Drug Administration lifted restrictions on Ipca Laboratories Ltd. in Mumbai to allow it to export hydroxychloroquine and a similar drug, chloroquine. Ipca’s factories had been banned from shipping to the U.S. since 2015 after inspectors discovered multiple violations of manufacturing standards, including manipulation of data gathered during routine quality checks. On Tuesday, the FDA reversed its chloroquine import waiver for Ipca, the company said in a securities filing. It is still allowed to import hydroxychloroquine into the U.S. The FDA waived Ipca’s ban to mitigate potential shortages and hydroxychloroquine is still in shortage, Michael Felberbaum, a spokesman for the agency, said in an email. “Ipca agreed to perform additional quality mitigation steps prior to shipping the drugs for American patients,” he said. Ipca expects revenue to grow as much as 17% this year, in part due to hydroxychloroquine sales, the company said on an earnings call earlier this month. Ipca brought in $656 million in the year ending March 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On that same call, company executives also revealed that the raw ingredients it uses to make hydroxychloroquine come from China. https://health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/pharma/how-trumps-hydroxychloroquine-push-became-a-boon-for-ipca-laboratories/76621250 rhampton7

In India, thousands of healthcare workers and common people continue to have them in the hope that it may guard them against novel coronavirus infection. Doctors, however, warn against the practice. According to Dr Kabir Sardana, professor of dermatology at Ram Manohar Lohia hospital in New Delhi, they have come across healthcare workers using the drug as a preventive developing skin problems such as raised itchy eruptions, swelling of face, itching of body, itching of palms and soles, and rash involving the trunk. He added that when they investigated further, it was found that a number of patients who had been reporting with similar skin problems also had a history of taking HCQ without prescription. It took nearly two to three weeks for the skin reaction to subside. Patients with severe itching required oral steroids, the doctor said. Dr Sardana said healthcare workers taking HCQ should be aware that even a weekly dose - approved by Indian Council of Medical Research - can cause skin rash. The results of the study conducted by RML on the side-effects of HCQ use in healthcare workers has been published in the Journal of Dermatological Treatment. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/news/hydroxychloroquine-sparks-new-worry-amid-covid-19-pandemic/videoshow/76626188.cms rhampton7

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced Thursday morning that he will pause any further phases of reopening Texas as the state is facing a “massive outbreak” in the coronavirus pandemic, with the numbers of new cases and hospitalizations continuing to hit record highs. The governor also put new restrictions into place on elective surgeries in four areas — Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio — to protect hospital space for new patients. El Paso was not included in that order. “The last thing we want to do as a state is go backwards and close down businesses, " he wrote in a Thursday press release, but the "pause will help our state corral the spread." https://kvia.com/news/texas/2020/06/25/gov-abbott-pauses-texas-reopening-says-state-facing-massive-virus-outbreak/ rhampton7

There are too many coronavirus infections to lift additional restrictions, Idaho Gov. Brad Little said Thursday, and the state will remain in the fourth and final stage of his plan to reopen during the pandemic. The Republican governor also announced that he's moving the state to a regional response system for reopening. Stage 4 was originally scheduled to expire Saturday. It allows gatherings of more than 50 people as long as precautions are taken. It will now remain in effect for at least another two weeks. Idaho has six metrics for moving ahead through the stages and had cleared all of them up to Thursday. But Little said the state failed to meet criteria on more than half of the requirements. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/idaho/articles/2020-06-25/idaho-restrictions-to-remain-as-virus-infections-spread rhampton7

Our civilisation is in deep seated trouble closely tied to increasing breakdown and unreliability of our reasoning. A familiar pattern pointing to entropy of rationality in our civilisation.

The future does not look rosy. Hopefully, I am wrong. Everyone has it so much better than before that they cannot imagine it getting so bad that it would make a difference in how they are affected. But given the chaos around the Western world, and it is just Western Civilization that is under attack, they should remember the famous saying attributed to Orwell but in reality not him

People Sleep Peacefully in Their Beds at Night Only Because Rough Men Stand Ready to Do Violence on Their Behalf

People should watch the movie "High Noon" for those situations when the local people are under attack and because of their cowardliness all that stands in the way of their subjugation is one law man. There is a YouTube video that has a recorded 911 call where a woman calls and says a man is beating on her door and trying to get in. The operator said there was no one available on the weekend to help her and she should reason with the person or wait till Monday when someone would be able to answer her call. The man broke in and assaulted her. Does anyone who has watched what has happened around the world in the last 3 weeks think this could not happen to them or their family. We live in a world of fools who have forgotten history. jerry

jerry, does anyone truly believe the numbers coming out of China? is there a reasonable estimate?

Only a fool would believe them. China is interesting because every now and then a study appears out of nowhere telling us what has happened and what works. But there is no consistent literature. Just yesterday a small study and I mean small, 48 patients showed both HCQ and CQ working to shorten the time to the elimination of the virus. So what's the sense in reporting it. It's so small. https://bit.ly/2YvkTsl There's a pdf there of all the details. jerry

From this scamministration. It's scamdalous! Seversky

🥁 Ba dum tss daveS

From Scamdanavia? ET

OT: I heard the word "scamdemic" on AM radio this morning. 🙄 daveS

jerry, does anyone truly believe the numbers coming out of China? is there a reasonable estimate? KF kairosfocus

Jerry, you point to the three levers of persuasion of classic rhetoric, pathos, ethos, logos. First, roughly our emotions are no stronger than the accuracy and prudence of underlying perceptions and judgements. Second, we have the credibility or authority of a source or presenter, which again is no better than underlying facts, reasoning and assumptions, per GIGO. So, third, it is only the facts and logic of a case i/l/o quality of assumptions or axioms, that is actually able to deliver warranted pistis, rhetoric form actually persuasive proof. That word pistis, for good reason, is exactly the word for faith in the NT, confident trust and reliance on a solid basis. Whether on the direct issue of treating CV19 or the ethical, valid testing of treatments, or the addressing of implications of lockdown, or the way associated decisions of practicing medicine or research or administrators and policy makers are made, the issue of sound warrant leading to prudent decisions comes to the fore. Where it is obvious that we are found sadly wanting. And, lo and behold, it is precisely the same breakdowns that have led us to a point where some, dressed up in lab coats, wish to tell us science forbids us to draw the reasonable conclusion from seeing in the heart of the cell alphanumerical algorithmic (so, linguistic and goal directed) code and associated molecular nanotech execution machinery. Design. Where we know from software debugging, that trying to fix one bug generally lets loose a raft of others so that as we proceed with incremental modification, we find the performance on the whole getting less and less reliable. The idea of incremental random changes filtered through differential reproductive success giving rise to all the complexity and variety of body plans around would be laughable, if it were not solemnly insisted on and backed up by domineering attitudes and behaviour. Likewise, one would think that we would have got basic macro sorted out after the 1930's - 90's; it looks like many insist on clinging to manifest, ruinous economic policy myths. Our civilisation is in deep seated trouble closely tied to increasing breakdown and unreliability of our reasoning. A familiar pattern pointing to entropy of rationality in our civilisation. KF kairosfocus

Discussing financial policy and outcomes will not lead anywhere. Mainly because they are accusations based mainly on emotions and thus, will not lead anywhere. Discussions about Trump will not lead anywhere because they are highly emotional. Actually any discussions based on emotions will not lead anywhere because they are mostly not based on fact or logic. It is obvious that some people intensely dislike Trump, others like him a lot and others have various opinions in between. This thread is about how to treat the virus and is certainly not about Trump. It is one of several posted in the last few months about the virus.. I personally am participating here to 1) learn new information about the virus and 2) disseminate information for which I am interested in responses to see if there are any coherent objections. This is a second form of learning. I and my wife's personal habits have changed dramatically since reading the OPs here on the virus as we learned more about it from here and links provided. I first learned about Zelenko here and from searching about him learned about MedCram and Medmastery. From here I learned about Raoult and from searching about him found several other sites that are relevant. What I have also found is that no one who objects to HCQ or who espouses the lockdowns has little valid information to offer. This I find amazing. One side presents coherent information and the criticizers provide at best emotional arguments that are incoherent. It is also obvious that the critics do not understand the virus and how it works to destabilize the body and eventually kill a large number of people, And also they fail to understand how to treat people who are infected and prevent them from dying. jerry

RP is just another insipid troll. Clinton didn't do anything. The Republicans did all the work for him. RP is trying to change history. ET

"The virus is not imaginary and the number of dead from the virus is not imaginary." Jerry, You do realize these are just assertions, don't you? Andrew asauber

DS, sponsored Red Guards riding piggyback on reasonable grievances, trying to spark culture form marxist cultural revolution. The calendar is not saying 1966. KF kairosfocus

JVL, CONTEXT and key terms, again. I clip:

The National Institutes of Health abruptly cut off funding to a long-standing, well-regarded research project on bat coronaviruses only after the White House specifically told it to do so, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases . . . . After the hearing, Fauci clarified to Politico that it was the White House that told the NIH to cancel the funding. An unnamed White House official told Politico that the White House did encourage the funding cut, but ultimately it was the Department of Health and Human Services—of which the NIH is a part—that made the final decision. An HHS spokesperson said only that the funding was cut because "the grantee was not in compliance with NIH's grant policy." In an emailed statement to Ars Wednesday, the NIH did not respond to questions about the cancellation, saying only that “NIH does not discuss internal deliberations on grant terminations.”

If we are suffering from a CV that may well trace to bats, in a context where serious questions have been raised on security protocols at the Wuhan facility (which was studying bat viruses and apparently received US funding) then a closer look at how such studies are being done is reasonable. If in that context, grant recipients are out of compliance, then that may be grounds for termination of grant. Especially if there is refusal to correct non compliance or the non compliance is gross or there is for cause loss of confidence. KF kairosfocus

Jerry, I duly noted that such is secondary at best. I took time to point to the corrective aspects that are being suppressed in sound bite rhetoric and domineering ideological narratives, and gave enough to serve as fair warning that much more serious detailed correction can readily be provided. The thing is, the lockdown is a de facto economic policy move that forces leisure -- a euphemism for effective unemployment -- to a much higher proportion of available working hours, triggering recessional and even depressive forces. In 1st World states, that can spike deaths of despair far beyond levels of echo waves in a pandemic. For the 2/3 world, that could trigger famine and the like, further dwarfing direct pandemic deaths. Sometimes we have to make a dismal calculus decision on minimising deaths in unavoidably huge numbers. That happens with fighting big wars and it is relevant to pandemics vs lockdown recessions; sometimes both obtain, e.g. Spanish Flu and rushing troops from units with Spanish Flu outbreaks to fight the German Spring Offensive of 1918. This too factors into the gross irresponsibility on ethics and inductive logic supportive of sound decision theory, in the way HCQ and cocktails based on it have been treated. The gold standard fallacy has clearly been baked into current medical education and research practice, likewise the ethical failure to reckon with giving people placebos in the face of less dubious alternatives to warranting sound conclusions. The media who failed to balance the discussion are equally culpable. This is a sad time. KF kairosfocus

The National Institutes of Health abruptly cut off funding to a long-standing, well-regarded research project on bat coronaviruses only after the White House specifically told it to do so, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/white-house-ordered-nih-to-cancel-coronavirus-research-funding-fauci-says/ JVL

Kf, Restrict any discussion of politics and fiscal spending from the blog. I know where it will go. The rabbit hole isn’t deep enough for it. I have been down it several times at other places. It is a tactic for diversion at best. This particular OP is about how to treat the virus. Keep it that way. jerry

F/N: Never mind the bury it in irrelevancies, the facts remain that the Raoult studies etc document effectiveness and the pivotal importance of early treatment by cocktail to prevent the degree of damage that requires hospitalisation. They also show reasonable safety and manageability of risks without need of hospitalisation in the overwhelming majority of cases treated early in the descending arm of the U. A stitch in time saves nine thousand.. By the time one is seeing significant symptoms, the 500 CT scans reveal, significant lung damage has already been done. Hospitalisation is a marker of additional, worsening damage and risk of fatal cytokine storm. Too little, too late, in too many cases. Where also, administering deliberately mislabelled sugar pills or the like in the face of such a highly contagious, fast acting killer disease simply cannot be justified on the first do no harm Hippocratic principle. It is a sign of how debased our minds are and of how benumbed our consciences are that ever so many cannot see the point that evidence is evidence and cumulative evidence counts in guiding decision theory. Tying back to the core focus of this blog, that same pattern of debased polarised thinking is why absolutely decisive evidence is similarly drowned out and sidelined. That is, the discovery of alphanumeric, algorithmic (so, linguistic and goal-directed) code in the heart of the living cell. Language and goal direction are decisive signs of intelligently directed configuration. KF kairosfocus

Folks, first, discussions of political economy are at best secondary here. I will note that deficit spending pivoting on whatever degree of the faith and credit of a great nation may remain is a proved answer to potential depression, which is what the pandemic and lockdown could have triggered. It is no accident that we saw WTI oil post a negative price for the first time in history. The cumulative fiscal and monetary irresponsibilities and blunders of generations will not be cured overnight. Where, for example fighting and winning the de facto WW 3 -- Reagan -- and fighting the (continuing) de facto WW4 -- stopping global Islamist expansion -- Bush 2, Obama, are reasonable justifications for paying for what is needed. Do I need to repeat that 4th Gen wars are subtle and relatively low kinetic (nukes etc are hard to justify ever using) and so take a long time while being largely unrecognised for what they are; even start and end points are hard to identify. I believe WW3 and WW4 overlapped since the rise of Mullah-dominated Iran because of Carter's geostrategic blunder. Never surrender to Red Guards and their backers. Similarly Bush 2 and Obama fought an end of ICT wave 1 recession that has lingering global effects exacerbated now by pandemic and lockdown. For UK I have heard of a 20 - 25% hole in GDP, an index of what locking down an economy for 2 - 3 months does. Per Okun's law, that translates into serious unemployment. That RP refused to give key context here is telling; the usual talking heads generally do not give context they are pushing ideological narratives. Here, I am just pointing to issues typically suppressed in their soundbite rhetoric. The sound answer is finding key generation-dominating technologies and investing in the Kondratiev wave they trigger. Yes, that is tickling a dragon's tail, but that is the nature of geostrategic opportunity. KF PS: FYI, Investopedia:

Okun's Law Explained Okun's law can also pertain to how a rise in unemployment affects gross domestic product (GDP), where a percentage increase in unemployment causes a 2% fall in GDP. Arthur Okun was a Yale professor and economist who studied the relationship between unemployment and production. He first published his research on the topic in the 1960s, and his findings were established as Okun’s law. It provides a general notion construing that when unemployment falls, the production of a country will increase. This measure can be used for estimating both GNP and GDP. The percentage increase by which GNP changes when unemployment falls by 1% is the Okun coefficient. The relationship between unemployment and GNP or GDP varies by country. In the United States, the Okun coefficient estimates that when unemployment falls by 1%, GNP will rise by 3% and GDP will rise by 2%. When unemployment rises by 1%, then GNP is expected to fall by 3% and GDP is expected to fall by 2%. Industrialized nations with labor markets that are less flexible than those of the United States, such as France and Germany, tend to have higher Okun coefficients. In those countries, the same percentage change in GNP has a smaller effect on the unemployment rate than it does in the United States. [--> that also means that fixing structural unemployment is much harder hence sticky high unemployment rates]

kairosfocus

The presidents in my lifetime who have exploded the deficit are Reagan, the first Bush, the second Bush, and Donald Trump. The Presidents who have overseen deficit reductions have been Clinton and Obama. The whole Republican party is a scam on people who can’t figure it out. Retired Physicist

The republican party is a scam. The billionaires pay the bills, and the only thing that Republicans consistently do is give them tax breaks and deregulation so they can make even more billions. They tell the Jesus types that they’re going to fix everything, but they never do. Just tax cuts for billionaires and huge deficits. It’s a scam on people who can’t figure out what they’re doing. Retired Physicist

The rioters and looters are 99-100% Democrat/ liberal/ left wingnuts. So a vote for Biden is a vote for their actions. Their actions may get the win for Biden cuz morons will think it's Trump's fault. Biden will be their puppet. Biden better tow their line or they will riot and loot him right out of office. He don't have the spine to stand up to them. ET

Aren't we having rioting and looting under Drumpf? 🤔 daveS

Holy crap. A vote for Biden is a vote for the rioters, looters and cancel culture. A vote for Biden is a vote against the USA. In nresponse to RP- Current U.S. Federal Budget Deficit:

The current U.S. budget deficit is an accumulated result of the War on Terror, unfunded mandatory spending, and tax cuts.

Clinton didn't do anything but OK what Newt Gingrich got passed in the House ET

Reagan, the first Bush, the second Bush, and Donald Trump all exploded the deficit. Obama and Clinton reduced the deficit. The Republicans are a party that doesn’t give a care for fiscal conservatism, they just care about rewarding their billionaire donors, and everybody else is on the hook for it.

This is utter nonsense. Bu a discussion of this should not be on this blog and especially this OP. jerry

Reagan, the first Bush, the second Bush, and Donald Trump all exploded the deficit. Obama and Clinton reduced the deficit. The Republicans are a party that doesn’t give a care for fiscal conservatism, they just care about rewarding their billionaire donors, and everybody else is on the hook for it. Retired Physicist

@Ed at 331, we are 210 days from again having a president who is not a moral catastrophe, and many people will be happy. Retired Physicist

@rhampton: yeah, there’s a reason your surgeon wears a face mask. I was at Panera yesterday morning and they have half the tables marked as unavailable and these dummies are just ignoring that and sitting down everywhere and I had to get up and move at one point. There’s a reason Florida had 5508 new cases yesterday. And iIt’s turning out that even some people who are asymptomatic are having lung damage, and there is now some evidence that the virus is causing type 1 diabetes because it’s attacking the Islets of Langerhans cells on the pancreas. That’s not certain, but suggestive. Retired Physicist

Again Massachusetts is way ahead of the other States ET

North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper has announced face masks are now mandatory in public places and the state will remain in a Safer-At-Home Phase 2 order for an additional 3 weeks. Cooper said growing evidence shows cloth face coverings, when worn consistently, can decrease the spread the COVID-19 coronavirus, especially among people who are not yet showing symptoms of the virus. In addition, certain businesses must have employees and customers wear face coverings, including but not limited to: retail businesses, restaurants, personal care and grooming. "I've been clear that data and science would lead the way in following that standard," Cooper said. "It's clear that our numbers will keep us from moving ahead into the next phase of easing restrictions." Cooper's decision to "pause" further reopenings and continue Phase 2 until July 17 means businesses hoping to reopen in Phase 3 will need to wait longer. https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/north-carolina-governor-roy-cooper-coronavirus-phase-mask/275-5403927e-871d-4fd8-94c9-6805a2a3a9da rhampton7

If I had the $$$ I would take a thousands of people, subject them to my survival kit regimen for a month and then try to get them infected with covid-19. The patients would continue the regimen, but ramp it up, after the infection incident. ET

The ole "let's set it up to fail so we can then report on its failure", tactic. I still wonder if the majority of medical people understand how it's supposed to work. ET

RHampton, Here is something for you to report on. It's about New Brunswick and in French but you can translate if you use Chrome. https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php Key paragraph

In contrast, Canada's Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam has cautioned against premature use of chloroquine, stressing that it is just one of many existing drugs that are currently being tested. In Quebec, the National Institute of Excellence in Health and Social Services of Quebec (INESS) judges that the uncertainty surrounding the efficacy and safety of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine does not allow its general use, regardless of the stage of the disease. The organization recommends limiting the use of this medication on a case-by-case basis to patients whose clinical situation is severe. "In our opinion, at this stage it is too late to take advantage of the benefits of the treatment, " replied Dr. Girouard. We want to treat patients early rather than late or for the most critical cases that require hospitalization. By treating early, we hope to avoid dreadful complications. " The specialist expects the New Brunswick initiative to attract some criticism. "Two opposing points of view confront each other, that of the scientist who wants data collected according to a certain protocol, that of the doctor who treats a patient and bases his decisions according to his judgment, " he summarizes.

We have seen. this polarization play out here on UD as well as in the US and a lot of the world. jerry

I guess it depends on whether you think illness and death is good.

Wasn't the lockdowns supposed to delay the spread of the virus not prevent everyone from getting it? I don't think anyone here believes illness and death are good but the question is will all those Canadians not getting the virus eventually get it? If not why not? And will the means for not getting it be good for society? It has already been pointed out to you that Texas is doing much better than Canada. Deaths per million are little more than a third of Canada. So Canada much be doing really bad up there with a much less dense population than Texas. I have a friend who lives in New Brunswick. They are doing fabulously and using HCQ. As of today only 2 people have died in New Brunswick. But that is not on RHampton's list. jerry

Acartia Eddie is totally clueless. The GOVENORS are in control of their States. If the STATES have a covid-19 problem, see the Governors, you ignorant twit. If people weren't so ignorant we wouldn't be seeing an increase in cases, either. Leave it to a cowardly loser to try to pin the responsibility on someone who clearly isn't responsible for people's actions. ET

Jerry

Is this good or bad? And why?

I guess it depends on whether you think illness and death is good. If you don’t, then it suggests a big failure for the US. Made worse by your narcissist in chief. Ed George

The US appears to be headed for another day of record new cases (currently at 33,000).

Is this good or bad? And why? Is this an example of one of the imaginary hobgoblins? Not the new cases but that this is bad? jerry

The US appears to be headed for another day of record new cases (currently at 33,000). Canada currently has 265 new cases. An order of magnitude lower than would be expected based on population size. Ed George

Dr Raoult, The Marseille researcher also regretted that, in this health crisis, "medical decisions" were "preempted by the political" . . . referring these decisions to politicians. "It was not for us [doctors] to think" about these subjects, he simply replied. "The decisions to contain and wear a mask are not based on established, clear and demonstrable scientific data," he added, adding that this is a question of "political management on which I am concerned. am forbidden to have an opinion ". https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/06/24/depistage-hydroxychloroquine-les-critiques-du-professeur-raoult-sur-la-gestion-de-la-crise-sanitaire_6044069_3244.html rhampton7

“There is a massive outbreak of COVID-19 across the state of Texas,” Texas Gov. Abbott said in an interview with KFDA-TV in Amarillo. With new cases and the number of COVID-19 patients rising rapidly, “We are looking at greater restrictions and some could be localized,” Abbott said Wednesday without detailing what those would be or where. “There are some regions in the state of Texas that are running tight on hospital capacity that may necessitate a localized strategy to make sure that hospital beds will be available,” he said. Abbott also announced Wednesday that Texans who take a COVID-19 test at state-run mobile sites will receive four face masks to take home, starting Thursday. “Wearing a mask or facial covering in public is an effective way for Texans to protect themselves and others from the transmission of COVID-19,” Abbott said in a news release Wednesday. “This program helps ensure that Texans have the resources they need to effectively mitigate the spread of this virus and keep themselves and their communities safe. https://www.kbtx.com/2020/06/24/gov-abbott-says-texas-is-facing-a-massive-covid-19-outbreak/ rhampton7

In the interest of a good argument, is there any way you can demonstrate that they aren’t?

The virus is not imaginary and the number of dead from the virus is not imaginary. There are lots of imaginary ones out there but the virus is real and the dead are real. The exact number can be disputed but not that there are hundreds of thousands. But an example of a possible imaginary hobgoblin is the fear that there will be a large increase in deaths from the opening up of the economy. That is certainly being played up in a lot of places. jerry

"the hobgoblins are not imaginary" Jerry, In the interest of a good argument, is there any way you can demonstrate that they aren't? Andrew asauber

Deaths lag behind hospitalizations

That is obviously a truism. but Four things: First, there should be few hospitalizations if early treatment is administered. Nothing RHampton has posted or said has undermined that. This should be a truism too. But in our world it is not and that is scariest thing about this virus. Second, who are those being classified as both C19 and hospitalized? Some states have started testing all people admitted and if they have C19 they are classified as a hospitalization for C19 even if they are in the hospital for some unrelated reason. This will have to be watched to see if it has any effect. Three, if someone is being administered Remdesivir, they are usually in the hospital for at least 5 days. Is this affecting hospitalization numbers? Maybe it is too little to be an effect. Finally, from RHampton

the Baptist Health South Florida network of hospitals had more than 280 patients on Tuesday. But Segarra said he is seeing fewer elderly patients and residents of nursing homes than he did in April, and not as many are intensive-care admissions. The change in patient demographic suggests that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is spreading more widely in Miami-Dade as businesses reopen and people return to work. “Community spread is the source of a lot of the patients that are coming in,” Segarra said. HCA Healthcare, which owns three hospitals in Miami-Dade, said its facilities were also seeing a surge in younger patients who were not severely ill. HCA’s Miami-Dade hospitals include Kendall Regional Medical Center, Mercy Hospital and Aventura Hospital and Medical Center. “Though we continue to see admissions from a variety of age groups, we are seeing younger individuals being admitted for COVID-19 treatment,” Peter Jude, a spokesman for Kendall Regional, said in a statement.

So how many of the hospitalizations are for young people? What is all this about?

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. H. L. Mencken

The only sad. thing this time is if by incompetence or design, the hobgoblins are not imaginary. The only real issue is how long these bogeymen will stay? jerry

Record numbers of patients with COVID-19 are filling Miami-Dade hospitals, with one medical center in Homestead reaching ICU capacity on Tuesday after county officials identified the area as a hot spot of new cases. But they point to a silver lining in the growing number of new cases and hospitalizations in Florida’s hardest-hit county: The patients are younger and not as severely ill as they were during the first wave in April, and doctors and nurses have gained valuable experience in the months-long pandemic — leading to shorter hospital stays and better outcomes. Dr. Sergio Segarra, an emergency room physician at Baptist Hospital Miami, said the Baptist Health South Florida network of hospitals had more than 280 patients on Tuesday. But Segarra said he is seeing fewer elderly patients and residents of nursing homes than he did in April, and not as many are intensive-care admissions. The change in patient demographic suggests that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is spreading more widely in Miami-Dade as businesses reopen and people return to work. “Community spread is the source of a lot of the patients that are coming in,” Segarra said. HCA Healthcare, which owns three hospitals in Miami-Dade, said its facilities were also seeing a surge in younger patients who were not severely ill. HCA’s Miami-Dade hospitals include Kendall Regional Medical Center, Mercy Hospital and Aventura Hospital and Medical Center. “Though we continue to see admissions from a variety of age groups, we are seeing younger individuals being admitted for COVID-19 treatment,” Peter Jude, a spokesman for Kendall Regional, said in a statement. https://www.govtech.com/em/safety/Younger-less-Sick-Coronavirus-Patients-Surging-Through-Hospitals.html rhampton7

As the number of patients hospitalized with the coronavirus has reached record highs 12 days in a row, Gov. Greg Abbott and other health officials have stressed that the state has “abundant” capacity to care for them. Statewide, there were 14,260 available hospital beds and nearly 1,500 intensive care unit beds as of Tuesday. But regionally, some hospital officials are reporting that intensive care units — for seriously ill patients, like those on ventilators — are near or over capacity, and local leaders have warned that hospitals could get overwhelmed if the number of infections keeps climbing. In the hard-hit Houston region, hospitals have begun moving coronavirus patients from crowded ICUs to other facilities. A local children’s hospital said this week it is admitting transfer patients, with and without the virus, to help other facilities manage their capacity. Elsewhere, counties like Travis and Harris, which includes Houston, have eyed local convention centers or stadiums as temporary hospital overflow facilities — reviving plans mapped out early in the pandemic that were largely abandoned due to lack of need at the time. The number of patients hospitalized with the virus in Texas has more than doubled since the beginning of the month, reaching 4,092 Tuesday. https://haysfreepress.com/2020/06/24/coronavirus-patients-crowd-some-texas-icus-as-gov-greg-abbott-touts-abundant-hospital-capacity/ rhampton7

Dr. Tom Frieden, president and CEO of Resolve to Save Lives and former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said that results of trials to date show that it is “unlikely that this drug will have a substantial benefit reducing death rates of patients with severe disease.” However, he also said the potential role of hydroxychloroquine in preventing infection or severe disease when given prior to infection has yet to be studied rigorously. “As a scientist and a doctor, I'd say simply, there's no evidence that it works. It has not been proven not to work for prevention. It has not been shown to be effective in several large studies, which suggests that it's not going to be a dramatic benefit to people on it, but we don't know for sure. So it's important that those studies continue and that we find out what the result is,” he told Devex. https://www.devex.com/news/the-hydroxychloroquine-conundrum-97534 rhampton7

During this difficult time, Chemistry World is checking in with chemists around the globe to see how they are weathering the Covid-19 pandemic. John Woodland, a postdoctoral medicinal chemist at the University of Cape Town in South Africa, works in the only integrated drug discovery platform in all of Africa. His research, which focuses on designing and synthesising potential drug leads for infectious diseases like malaria, has come to a standstill. Woodland’s passion for science engagement is helping him through this difficult time. As part of a team working in malaria, Woodland was fascinated by the initial public interest in repurposing chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine against SARS-CoV-2. ‘Sadly, the hype seems to have outlived the hope,’ he says. He wrote an article for a local news publication in April just as the first clinical data on treatment of Covid-19 with hydroxychloroquine were being released, and that led to an interview later on a local radio station. https://www.chemistryworld.com/coronavirus/chemists-amid-coronavirus-john-woodland/4012049.article rhampton7

French doctor and virologist Didier Raoult, whose use of malaria medication hydroxychloroquine at a treatment for Covid-19 has attracted worldwide attention and controversy, was to respond to questions of a parliamentary committee investigating France’s response to the epidemic. Raoult also said he believed a large part of French citizens are already immune to the disease caused by the new coronavirus. “My hypothesis is that part of the population was naturally immunised against Covid before the start of the epidemic,” he told newspaper Le Parisien, but said he had no idea why there seemed to be an estimated “40 to 70 percent” rate of natural immunity. In regards to efforts to develop a vaccine, Raoult expressed doubt: “It is statistically improbably that a vaccine will be available” at this point, he said. On authors of two recent studies published in British review Recovery and French revue Discovery claiming the treatment is ineffective: “They are ignoramuses” who either gave patients too much or too little of the drug. “Had they asked my opinion, they might have been more effective,” Raoult said. Asked about critics saying he published too often to be credible: “Do you ask Mozart did what he did? I’ll add that in addition to 150 publications per year, I published 10 books at the same time. We are not all equal. In this country, we love to decapitate people.” https://uk.news.yahoo.com/french-doctor-championed-hydroxychloroquine-explain-135138754.html rhampton7

Despite early promise, hydroxychloroquine is no longer being used to treat COVID-19 at Las Vegas-area hospitals including University Medical Center, which had prescribed the drug not only to gravely ill patients but to at-risk patients seen in the emergency room. Hydroxychloroquine is not the only drug that has “crashed and burned” as a possible treatment for COVID-19, said Dr. Shadaba Asad, medical director of infectious disease at the county hospital. “We’ve looked at a lot of different modalities of treatment,” she said. “When we found that they’re not holding up to their initial promise, we stopped using them. “The only reason this one got so much publicity was because of the politics that got involved.” https://www.reviewjournal.com/life/health/las-vegas-hospitals-drop-hydroxychloroquine-as-covid-19-treatment-2059730/ rhampton7

Deaths lag behind hospitalizations rhampton7

Some latest information on US C19 deaths: Seven day moving average of deaths from C19 Apr 21 - 2214 - highest point for US Jun 2 - 1072 Jun 9 - 836 Jun 16 - 712 Jun 23 - 620 This is a 70% drop and could change. Focus of press is on new cases which are not declining as much. But even these deaths are too many and most could have been prevented with early treatment. jerry

Scientists from various universities around the world, in conjunction with Israel's Technion, have proposed a solution to help prevent the spread of coronavirus, which will involve the use of ultraviolet light in indoor settings, according to a press release on Tuesday from the university. Publishing their findings in the American Chemical Society journal ACS Nano, the scientists note that coronavirus transmission occurs via air droplets exhaled by infected individuals and inhaled by healthy individual, in addition to it being deposited on surfaces from exhalations or hand contact. Based on previous studies showing a stronger likelihood of virus transmission indoors, the scientists suggest that fluorescent lamps, microcavity plasmas and LEDs inside ventilation systems can be effective at deactivating both airborne and surface-deposited strains of COVID-19. On this basis, the team argues that investing a few billion dollars in such a technology in the form of UV-C sources can help protect billions of indoor workers worldwide. https://www.jpost.com/health-science/scientists-support-use-of-ultraviolet-light-to-prevent-covid-19-spread-632484 rhampton7

Looks like the US has a record number of people who didn't do any research while they were quarantined. ET

European Union officials are racing to agree on who can visit the bloc as of July 1 based on how countries of origin are faring with new coronavirus cases. Americans, so far, are excluded, according to draft lists seen by The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/23/world/europe/coronavirus-EU-American-travel-ban.html rhampton7

It looks like the US is going to have a record for the number of new cases in the country. Looks like a second wave is beginning. Or they never reached their first peak. Ed George

As coronavirus cases around the country continue to surge again, seven states have reached new records for coronavirus hospitalizations. The Washington Post reported that Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas all reached new records for COVID-19 hospitalizations on Tuesday. https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/seven-states-reach-highest-new-records-for-covid-hospitalizations-report.html rhampton7

Please disallow US travelers to Europe. Keep the US $$$ here until we recover financially and health-wise. No need to keep allowing the virus access to an easy travel route, anyway. ET

It's kind of stupid to head south, to Florida, in the summer, anyway. So anyone doing so now definitely doesn't give a hoot about science, logic and reasoning. (This is the season for New England, Yellowstone, Alaska- points north of 40 degrees) ET

I actually came here to publish a positive story, astronomers have finally measured the distance to the first Einstein ring, but this horrendous disease sidetracked me. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/astronomers-have-finally-measured-the-distance-of-first-observed-einstein-ring/ Retired Physicist

@rhampton, Yeah for my age group the virus has a low fatality rate but that’s not what I’m worried about. There are people, even young people, with lung, heart, and brain damage from this thing. The EU Is considering banning travelers from America because in many respects we are a Third World country and we don’t have a handle on this thing. Retired Physicist

Niagara Health intensivist and research lead Dr. Jennifer Tsang said “Lots of research activities are happening at Niagara Health.” Tsang said physicians are prescribing several medications based as part of the study. Participants were initially testing hydroxychloroquine, but that research has stopped to allow data to be analyzed. Although hydroxychloroquine has been touted by U.S. President Donald Trump, Tsang said “there is no strong data that suggests it increases harm, but then at the same time I don’t think there’s any data that suggests that it helps.” Other drugs being tested include Lopinavir/Ritonavir, which has been used for the treatment of HIV, as well as steroids. Other research hopes to determine if physicians can improve a patient’s response to treatment by suppressing a patient’s immune response. https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-region/2020/06/23/niagara-patients-taking-part-in-covid-19-clinical-trials.html rhampton7

Preliminary trials on the use of quinine, chloroquine, and hydroxychloroquine as prophylaxis for COVID-19 in Nigeria has recorded some level of success. In a press statement made available to Vanguard, the Chief Executive officer of LWI, Bisi Bright, said 123 volunteers were involved in the study of which 120 were on prophylaxis and 23 on treatment. “The preliminary data also included a few self-medicating members of the public who did so under guidance. Out of the 110 on Prophylaxis, there were 76 men and 36 women to corroborate the fact. “Our LWI Study Protocol recommends quinine for all COVID-19 Inpatients (oral for regular inpatients and intravenous for ICU Patients)” she said. According to her, quinine crosses the blood-brain barrier into the alveoli which gives it an added advantage over chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 and picks up where CQ/ HCQ stop. “ Although it has been proven that CQ/HCQ is effective in early COVID-19, more studies will be needed due to the small sample size deployed while quinine is effective in the advanced stage of COVID-19 including ICU “However, post-treatment intermittent prophylaxis is recommended in COVID-19. This is why mentioned earlier that more studies are needed,” she said. https://www.vanguardngr.com/2020/06/covid-19-nigerian-study-finds-chloroquine-hydroxychloroquine-effective-as-prophylaxis/ rhampton7

Well Florida just announced they were going to stop telling anybody anything about how much ICU capacity they have. And the data scientist they fired for refusing to change the data says she’s got multiple sources now saying that they are changing the data. The state wants them tourist dollars. There’s an old saying about money being the root of all something, but I can’t remember it just now. Retired Physicist

That may be. But I do tend to trust researchers and scientists who a) have been trained to a much higher level than I can even begin to approach,

Three things, First you just admitted that you know little about how the virus works. Yet you are taking a position that has led to hundreds of thousands dead. I would think it would be best to be quiet or ask questions. Second, I am aware of no researcher who has shown that HCQ with appropriate protocols does not work. Not one. RHampton in all his posts has not identified one. He only points to researchers who say it doesn't work where it is not supposed to work. Don't you think that is very strange? Third, there are several doctors who will vouch for the drug when used appropriately. based on personal experience. They have been pointed to several times on this site by several commenters. No one here has refuted any of them even with all the internet behind them to search. jerry

In the last few weeks, findings from around the world give support for earlier indications of coronavirus infections being linked to the brain. Sweden: A study from the University of Gothenburg shows that certain patients in ICU care have suffered brain damage, reports daily Stockholm-based Svenska Dagbladet. Doctors already knew that severe infections impaired cognitive abilities, but it turns out that even patients not in need of respiratory assistance have experienced similar complications. Swedish scientists are now investigating whether the damage is caused directly by the virus or by immune system failure. Italy: Up to 30% of COVID-19 patients have had some impact on the brain, according to Professor Alessandro Padovani, head of the neurology unit at the University of Brescia, who launched a "NeuroCovid" center to study the effects of the virus on the brain. Padovani told Corriere della Sera that the impact on the brain of COVID-19 patients is a more severe version of the potential neurological risks of a typical flu, particularly for the elderly, including a 1.5% higher likelihood of suffering a stroke. This is one of the reasons it is advisable to get a flu shot, Padovani said. France: Director general of health Jérôme Salomon confirmed in April that neurologic lesions were often identified in patients in intensive care — lesions that were sometimes temporary and sometimes permanent. The first symptoms of neurologic lesions that were highlighted in France were anosmia and ageusia, alteration of the sense of smell and the loss of taste functions. United States: In some cases, impaired respiration is due to damage in the brain center that controls breathing, according to findings from a research team from Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine in Cleveland. They also identified an inflammation in the area of the brain that determines the respiratory rate. The study shows that injecting anti-inflammatory drugs into the central nervous system reduces inflammation both in the brain and in the lungs. China: A Chinese study published in the Journal of Medical Virology also suggests that SARS-CoV-2 can induce neuronal damage. The study compared the novel coronavirus to previous ones, like HEV67 and avian bronchitis virus, which can first invade the peripheral nerve endings and then access the nervous system. https://worldcrunch.com/coronavirus/growing-evidence-of-covid-1939s-neurological-impact rhampton7

Several more Israeli cities were designated as red zones and put on lockdown on Tuesday, as the number of coronavirus patients surged to 504 in a single day. As of Tuesday night, there have been 21,512 Israelis known to have had the virus. Currently, there are 5,335 patients, including 40 in serious condition. The committee considered closing some other cities and will discuss their designation on Wednesday at a follow-up meeting, Netanyahu said. “The second wave of coronavirus is marked by a widespread, non-targeted outbreak of the virus,” said Dr. Erez Barenboim, director of Assuta Ashdod Medical Center. “The attempt to reduce the spread through closing one or the other community is less effective in this round than before. As long as there is no vaccine, the most effective tool is personal responsibility: wearing masks, social distancing and hygiene.” Much more discipline and enforcement is needed, he said. “It is a matter of life or death,” Barenboim said. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/israel-tops-5000-coronavirus-patients-377-newly-infected-in-last-day-632487 rhampton7

There is no definitive research to dictate how hydroxychloroquine is prescribed to patients with COVID-19 infection. Therefore, individualized risk-benefit assessment and shared decision-making with the patient is very important in initiating treatment. Multiple commenters suggested this approach. Moreover, there are hundreds of research protocols underway, and there will continue to be a robust stream of information — some of it quite contradictory — regarding best practices for COVID-19. Each healthcare provider should perform an honest self-assessment of how much she or he can absorb on a routine basis, which likely means finding trusted resources to provide context around raw research. And we must all remember that scientific inquiry is never linear, but it is our best hope in fighting COVID-19. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/932577 rhampton7

Through mid-May, total Medicare payment for fee-for-service COVID-19 hospitalizations is $1.9 billion, according to new data from CMS. Medicare tracked 81,227 COVID-19 hospitalizations in its preliminary data snapshot. The snapshot analyzes Medicare claims and encounter data received by June 11 for services rendered from the start of the year to May 16. On average, Medicare payment for each fee-for-service COVID-19 hospitalization has been $23,094 to $63,721. The agency noted the data in its snapshot is preliminary and will change as CMS processes claims and encounters. It's difficult to predict how much Medicare will spend on COVID-19 hospitalizations for the rest of the year. In a recent analysis, healthcare business consulting firm Avelere pegged Medicare spend anywhere from $3.5 billion to $6.2 billion for fee-for-service COVID-19 hospitalizations in 2020. That analysis found the healthcare system as a whole could pay up to $17 billion for COVID-19 hospitalizations, with commercial insurers paying the largest portion, somewhere between $5.6 billion and $9.9 billion. https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/finance/medicare-has-spent-1-9b-on-covid-19-hospitalizations.html rhampton7

Jerry: First, RHampton chooses to post certain articles which present findings that are irrelevant. Why doesn’t he say they are irrelevant? Because he doesn't think they are irrelevant. Why don’t you say the studies are irrelevant? Because I don't think they are irrelevant. If you do not think so then you do not understand how the virus works. That may be. But I do tend to trust researchers and scientists who a) have been trained to a much higher level than I can even begin to approach, b) some of who have been working in the field for decades and c) they are honest and straight when relating what they did and how they did it. Again, you think they should have done something different but that doesn't mean it's 'fake' news. It means you think the researchers got it wrong. Second, the articles are fake news because they give the impression or are meant to give the impression that HCQ doesn’t work when the studies in the articles do no show any such thing. They seem to show that HCQ doesn't work under the conditions of which it was tested. You think it should have been tested under different conditions. But that doesn't mean their results are 'fake' news. National agencies have acted on these fake studies. Should that be the real story? Why isn’t it important to RHampton and apparently you that fake studies are being used to manipulate public opinion? You and any news agency is free to promulgate other stories or research which uphold your view. If you've got them show them. I guess you don't trust the public to make up their own mind; you think they are sheep which can be easily manipulated. Essentially RHampton has been reporting fake news for a long while and you are condoning it. Interesting position the two of you have taken. Essentially both of you are endorsing a position that has killed hundreds of thousands of people. Present as much evidence as you like to counter the news stories Rhampton7 is posting. If you're right then you should be talking to your congressmen, your legislators, your governor, etc. You should be sending letters to the press, the television stations, whoever you can find to hear your opinion. Are you appealing to your local hospital to get them to have a go your way? Are you writing the CDC and discussing your concerns? How many studies can you point to that followed your criteria and showed a positive result? One? Two? A lot more than that? One or two heavily criticised bits of research don't really cut it. Present the best evidence you have and let it do the talking. JVL

You are wrong, they are fake news

Rhampton7 is NOT repeating fake news. S/he is posting excerpts from newspaper reports of studies that have been done following certain protocols checking on certain aspects of COVID-19 infections and possible treatments.

First, RHampton chooses to post certain articles which present findings that are irrelevant. By selecting the stories, he is endorsing their conclusions. Why doesn't he say they are irrelevant? Why don't you say the studies are irrelevant? If you do not think so then you do not understand how the virus works. Second, the articles are fake news because they give the impression or are meant to give the impression that HCQ doesn't work when the studies in the articles do no show any such thing. National agencies have acted on these fake studies. Should that be the real story? Why isn't it important to RHampton and apparently you that fake studies are being used to manipulate public opinion? Essentially RHampton has been reporting fake news for a long while and you are condoning it. He just reported on two more fake news stories and showed how the fake news has affected national agencies toward the drug. Interesting position the two of you have taken. Essentially both of you are endorsing a position that has killed hundreds of thousands of people.

Look out HCQ:

I know no one who has a vested interest in having HCQ not replaced by another drug combination that is effective. So if the proposed treatments work, start them immediately. The Indian government has asked for details after the firm advertised their product. Hopefully, it will work. jerry

The Spanish Agency of Medicines and Medical Devices (Aemps) has suspended most of the clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for the COVID-19 coronavirus, the Agency said in a statement. Aemps draws attention to the fact that no side effects or harm to patients were detected during the studies, and the termination of studies is associated with a lack of positive dynamics. “Preliminary analyses did not reveal any safety issues, and the recommendation to stop recruiting patients for clinical trials is due to the lack of clinical benefit of hydroxychloroquine for hospitalized patients and its use in post-exposure prevention,” the Agency said in a statement. In Spain, 20 clinical trials are being conducted in 107 medical centers using hydroxychloroquine. Nine of them aimed to determine whether the drug can be used as a preventive measure, six-the impact on patients with a mild degree of disease, five – on patients who were admitted to hospitals with different degrees of disease development. https://freenews.live/spain-has-stopped-most-clinical-trials-of-hydroxychloroquine/ rhampton7

Look out HCQ: Yoga guru Ramdev's herbal medicine company Patanjali Ayurved on Tuesday claimed to have discovered cure for coronavirus but no medical authority could immediately vouch for the claim of 'Coronil and Swasari' medicine curing the highly contagious disease within seven days. The firm claimed that the two Ayurved-based medicines have shown 100 per cent favourable results during clinical trials on COVID-19 infected patients except those on a life support system. The medicines have been developed by Patanjali Research Center, Haridwar and privately-owned National Institute of Medical Science, Jaipur following all protocols with clinically controlled trial-based evidence, Ramdev said. "Patanjali first conducted clinical case study and conducted clinical control trials following all protocols of drug discovery," he said. https://www.morungexpress.com/ rhampton7

In a new survey conducted by the Lupus Foundation of America, 55% of respondents taking antimalarials to manage their lupus reported having difficulty accessing their prescription for hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, during March – May 2020 of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The survey includes responses from 3,000 people with lupus and caregivers, with 90% taking antimalarials. Respondents represented every state including DC and Puerto Rico. Issues that respondents reported facing when accessing prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine over the three-month period included: * Only being able to receive a partial refill (50%) * Delay in refill (43%) * Had to show additional documentation of lupus diagnosis (12%) * Not being able to get refill (7%) https://www.lupus.org/news/lupus-foundation-of-america-survey-finds-over-half-of-respondents-experienced-issues-accessing rhampton7

Without a report of the pH levels in patients, all news about the alleged ineffectiveness HCQ is fake. Without a report on cellular concentrations of zinc, all news about the alleged ineffectiveness of HCQ and zinc is fake news. ET

Jerry: Rhampton7 is NOT repeating fake news. S/he is posting excerpts from newspaper reports of studies that have been done following certain protocols checking on certain aspects of COVID-19 infections and possible treatments. The people doing the research have stated clearly what their procedures were and what their conclusions are. You disagree with their conclusions so your beef is with them. Rhampton7 is just reporting what s/he has found. S/he is not making anything up or only picking reports favourable to their position. Rhampton is not one of the researchers (I assume) and therefore cannot dictate to them what methods or timing to follow. You could choose to criticise the reporters if you feel their write ups aren't complete or balanced but, again, that's not Rhampton7's fault nor do they have any control over that either. Stop shooting the messenger and stick to critiquing the research. Also, you are allowed to post other stories or research that you find enlightening or fair. Perhaps you should do that more. JVL

What makes this fake news?

When it implies that HCQ is not effective as a treatment for the virus. It is making a false conclusion by generalizing it to other situations for which they do not have information. So this use of a false conclusion is an example of the fallacy of false generalization. Therefore the news reporting it is false news or fake news. I suggest you review the Aristotelean laws of logic. In this case normal and prudent medIcine would be to treat an illnesses as early as possible to prevent more serious consequences later on. That has been medical practice for centuries. You are essentially reportIng on the failures of the medical community to practice prudent medicine but you don’t say that. You Instead imply falsely that a particular drug is not effective and maybe harmful when there is no proof of that. And there is a lot of other information by competent doctors which says it is effective when used correctly. What you should be commenting on is the malpractice of the medical community not the failure of a drug used inappropriately. My guess is that you have an agenda because this has been explained to you several times. The interesting question is will you be back with more comments reporting more fake news. jerry

>> Every time uou use the word “hospital” you are almost certainly pointing to fake news. Post 268 for example . . . As for those who received the antibiotic azithromycin in addition to hydroxychloroquine, the study found no difference in the rate of discharge from hospital and “a possible excess risk of mortality” . The researchers analyzed the medical records of approximately 4,642 patients hospitalized for Covid-19 in one of the 39 AP-HP hospitals between February 1 and April 6. https://www.laprovence.com/actu/en-direct/6025333/hydroxychloroquine-une-etude-conclut-a-un-effet-positif-sur-le-retour-a-domicile-pas-sur-la-mortalite.htm What makes this fake news? rhampton7

Ok, so you are suggesting that the hospitals and doctors participating in RCTs around the world are all lying, except for one institution in France. I must continue guessing at your meaning because you refuse to explain.

You keep on making up things that were never said. I and others have explained it to you several times. My guess is that you are not an English speaker so do not understand the information provided you. Simple and straightforward explanations have been provided for you. You seem to have no idea how this virus works and the time course of the infection. All the reports that you have referenced are from a late stage in the infection for which HCQ is not appropriate. Every one!!! Or on a couple before infection where the results are very ambiguous. HCQ is to be used in the first 5-10 days after infection not at the time periods you are reporting which is after severe respiratory infection and infections in other areas of the body have set in. It is to be used prior to hospitalization not after hospitalization. It is also best used with other drugs. So all the studies you reference are irrelevant to evaluate the effectiveness of HCQ at an earlier stage of the infection. If a study was done in a hospital it is irrelevant. You continue to report bogus information every day, all in one direction. So I have to suspect an agenda. jerry

If facebook news can be believed a nurse said she was infected twice, 4 months apart. Infected, recovered, 4 months later, infected again. ET

It is possible that these asymptomatic patients are showing a weak antibody response because they already had a more robust T-cell response ready to go. Now, this hypothesis could be wrong, but it has to be tested. In the same way, it’s possible that there is a percentage of the population that, because of their T-cell profile, are more likely to have only such an asymptomatic infection or perhaps to not become infected at all. That’s a very important thing to clear up, but it’s unfortunately a lot more labor-intensive to profile CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in people than it is to profile their antibody responses. This applies to the vaccines under development as well: T cell effects are an important component of vaccine efficacy, but there’s a lot that we don’t understand about how various vaccines raise such responses. There have been many reports of recovered patients who never seem to have raised much of an antibody response at all, and it’s not yet clear how they cleared the virus: was it the innate immune response that did the job before the adaptive system kicked in, particularly in younger patients? Was it the T-cell response instead? We just don’t know yet. So my advice is not to panic, but not to be complacent, either. The complexities of the immune system mean that we have a whole range of possible situations in how this pandemic is unfolding. So we need to take this new paper and its results about antibody persistence seriously, but we also need to keep our eye on the T-cell situation as well. We’re not going to know the whole picture until we know more about both of those. And in the end, we’re not going to know about the protective effects of recovery from a coronavirus infection, or the protective effects of being vaccinated against it, until enough time has passed in a large population of both cohorts. You’d want a faster, less difficult readout for those things, but I’m just not sure that there is one. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/22/thoughts-on-antibody-persistence-and-the-pandemic rhampton7

One study found that 10 per cent of patients hospitalised with Covid-19 in China had undetectable antibodies just weeks after recovering from the disease. The study, published on the preprint server medRxiv and not yet peer reviewed, screened 1,500 coronavirus patients in Wuhan for antibodies. They found that one in ten patients who had contracted Covid-19 had no antibodies just weeks after recovering from the disease. They also found that only five per cent of health workers had antibodies, despite the fact many of them had contracted the disease, and only between one and five per cent of the people in other groups had antibodies. The other antibody study, published in the journal Nature Medicine, compared two groups of people who contracted the disease in Wanzhou, China in February. They looked at 37 people who had asymptomatic cases of the disease and 37 who had more severe forms. They found that 40 per cent of people in the asymptomatic group had undetectable levels of antibodies two to three months after the infection, compared to 13 per cent in the group who had a more severe dose of the disease. “ This strongly suggests that immunity may well diminish within months of infection for a substantial proportion of people. We need larger studies with longer follow-up in more populations, but these findings do suggest that we cannot rely on people having had proven infections nor on antibody testing as strong evidence of long term immunity.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/immunity-covid-19-rapidly-declines-research-shows/ rhampton7

Looks like millions of people didn't get the memo on the OTC supplements. I don't know if I feel bad for people who don't know how to do a little research to figure out how to best protect themself. ET

A report released over the weekend by the IDF’s Coronavirus National Information and Knowledge Center saying that Israel is well in the midst of a second wave of the coronavirus and warning of the possibility of thousands of daily infections and hundreds of fatalities was met by some Israelis with fear and others with skepticism. Although the report’s publication was reportedly overseen by the IDF’s Military Intelligence Division in cooperation with the Health Ministry, the authors of the reports were not named and media reports said that the IDF and the Health Ministry were distancing themselves from the report’s alarming conclusions. According to a Walla report, both the IDF and the Health Ministry claim that the other body is responsible for the report. Dr. Gili Regev-Yochay, Director of Sheba Medical Center’s Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, told Channel 12 News that the report “was very accurate and very concerning” and that the government may have erred by reopening the economy so quickly. Regev-Yochay also said that unlike the first wave of the coronaviurs in Israel, which had defined hotspots, this second wave does not, a concern that has also been mentioned more than once by Prof. Sigal Sadetsky, head of the Health Ministry’s Public Health Services. According to Sadetsky, the lack of clear hotspots makes it more difficult for the government to control the spread of the virus since it doesn’t know where to focus and where more testing should be carried out. https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/headlines-breaking-stories/1874692/israel-how-is-this-virus-wave-different-than-the-1st-wave.html rhampton7

As hospitalizations for COVID-19 climb to record levels, Gov. Greg Abbott urged Texans to prevent the virus’s spread by wearing masks and warned he could impose further restrictions if cases continue to rise. “To state the obvious, COVID-19 is now spreading at an unacceptable rate in Texas and it must be corralled,” he said during a press conference. While Abbott has not mandated the use of face masks in public, he emphasized their importance to people who may feel it’s “inconvenient” or an “infringement of freedom.” “Wearing a mask will help us to keep Texas open because not taking action to slow the spread will cause COVID to spread even worse, risking people’s lives, and ultimately leading to the closure of businesses,” he said. There are no details in Abbott’s plan about what level of increase could trigger a pause or a scaling back. In May, Abbott said a state positivity rate of 10% for several consecutive days would be a “red flag.” For the last 5 days, Abbott said at his news conference, the state’s positivity rate was at nearly 9%. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/06/22/watch-live-gov-greg-abbott-addresses-rapid-rise-in-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-in-texas/ rhampton7

C Clinical trials have always been a centerpiece of how medical research moves forward to establish that new treatments are safe and effective. This year, as COVID-19 spread from country to country, clinical trials for treatments and vaccines for the new coronavirus drew massive public attention. Trials were launched in record time throughout the world, including more than a dozen at Penn Medicine investigating COVID-19 testing, treatment, and vaccine development. And behind every trial, there was a huge team effort that is often largely unseen. Clinical trials in the news often focus on the study’s PI—the research physician who leads the trial. But the PI is only the tip of the iceberg. Behind the scenes of any clinical study is a team of dedicated employees who keep the operations running smoothly. At Penn Medicine, there are approximately 1,000 clinical research staff, including clinical trial regulatory staff, clinical research assistant and nurses, and clinical research project managers and directors. Research coordinators oversee everything that’s required to keep a clinical trial adhering to strict regulations. They make sure the PI gets the daily notes done, that patients get the correct medication at the right dosage—and all the necessary labs drawn—at the right times. Coordinators even make sure that tubes are readily available to collect the samples. Their work has always been essential to the successful outcome of studies, but the COVID pandemic brought new urgency to these responsibilities. In response to the needs of the crisis, clinical research staff from across Penn Medicine stepped up in new ways to coordinate COVID-related clinical trials, learned new ways of doing their jobs, and have proven to be key unsung heroes of the coronavirus response. https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/how-clinical-research-coordinators-run-covid-trials rhampton7

Ok, so you are suggesting that the hospitals and doctors participating in RCTs around the world are all lying, except for one institution in France. I must continue guessing at your meaning because you refuse to explain. rhampton7

Here is a series of charts on hospitalizations, fatalities, tests, positive results etc. https://bit.ly/3doHlYy It looks like hospitalization have been steady but I am sure are rising in some states especially those encouraging more activities that were once normal. I assume the data is accurate. jerry

RHamption, are you a natural English speaker? You seem to not understand English words and how they are used.

That doesn’t explain your comment about the word “hospital” in connection with fake news, after I had reported about hospitalizations on the rise.

The word "hospital" and "hospitalization" are two very different words with very different meanings. One is a physical place or an organization. The other is the process of entering this physical place, in the context of an illness or physical condition that requires the service of the organization. If you want to say that hospitalizations are increasing, few will challenge. that except it is cherry picking. But anytime you imply that HCQ does not work, you use fake studies. What does that say about the comments you make? jerry

Some states, including Texas, have seen notable increases in confirmed cases and hospitalizations since late May. Those increases, which cannot be fully explained by expanded virus testing, may be related to Memorial Day gatherings and the mass protests against police brutality triggered by George Floyd's death. The spike in cases that states such as Texas have seen can be expected to result in more deaths during the next couple of weeks than otherwise would have occurred. But if epidemiologists are correct in thinking that superspreading events on and after Memorial Day explain recent surges in infections—which makes senses given the timing—the resulting rise in daily deaths should be temporary. Yo uyang Gu's epidemiological model, which has a good track record of predicting COVID-19 fatalities, currently projects that daily deaths in the United States will continue to decline until early July, then rise through mid-August, exceeding the current level by late July, before declining again through September, dropping below the current level by the middle of that month. The model shows the nationwide death toll, currently about 120,000, rising to about 143,000 by the end of July, about 163,000 by the end of August, and about 180,000 by the end of September. I would not call that good news, but it is not nearly as bad as the estimate of 200,000 deaths by June 1 that The New York Times trumpeted in early May. https://reason.com/2020/06/22/daily-covid-19-deaths-have-fallen-dramatically-since-april/ rhampton7

That doesn’t explain your comment about the word “hospital” in connection with fake news, after I had reported about hospitalizations on the rise. Please explain what you mean. rhampton7

RHampton, Why don't you read this from Yale medicine. It is a synopsis of the positions a lot of people have taken here. https://bit.ly/3esOsAg jerry

RHampton, you again demonstrated you are publishing fake news and know nothing about this virus.

I don’t understand. Are you claiming that the increase in hospitalizations is a lie?

Nobody said that, nobody implied that. What many are saying is that the increase in hospitalization could have been prevented and it is reports like yours that are creating the false understanding in the population that is leading to the hospitalizations. Here is the conclusion from a following hypothetical study.

Fire extinguishers again shown not to be effective in treating fires... The New York fire department recommended that fire extinguishers be eliminated from the market because in their last 20 fires that fire extinguishers were used they had no effect on fighting the fires. They compared this to 20 other fires where they stood by and watched so these could be used as a control. The fires treated with fire extinguishers and those let to burn without doing anything were chosen randomly by a random number generator. The end result of each was identical thus proving the value of the randomized control test protocol used. The top New York fire Marshall said we now have conclusive proof that fire extinguishers do not help in fighting fires and should be banned from the market.

This is the type of RCT you have been recommending and reporting on. And is a fake study just as all the reports you describe are fake because they are based on fake studies. Every time you look at a patient in a hospital setting, they are equivalent to a building burning. What is missing from all your reports is treating the fire when it was small when it first arose with a fire extinguisher. That is why the doctor offered $100K to anyone who could show HCQ was not useful in putting out the fire when it was small. None of your reports would have been able to do this. jerry

I don’t understand. Are you claiming that the increase in hospitalizations is a lie? rhampton7

RHampton, Every time uou use the word “hospital” you are almost certainly pointing to fake news. You should instead be commenting on how the press is using the ignorance of the average person to promulgate the fake news. But apparently you are part of the receptive audience for fake news. jerry

Hospitals in Sweden have stopped using the malaria drug chloroquine on coronavirus patients after reports it was causing blinding headaches and vision loss. Doctors in the Vastra Gotaland region, 200miles west of Stockholm, are no longer administering the medication, touted as a 'miracle drug' by Donald Trump. A number of patients at hospitals in the county reported suffering cramps, peripheral vision loss and migraines within days of being prescribed the tablets. For one in 100 people, chloroquine can also cause the heart to beat too fast or slow, which can lead to a fatal heart attack. https://twnews.co.uk/uk-news/coronavirus-sweden-chloroquine-trials-stop-due-to-side-effects rhampton7

Jerry it you really want to challenge yourself, try this article: https://forbetterscience.com/2020/03/26/chloroquine-genius-didier-raoult-to-save-the-world-from-covid-19/ "In fact, the authors never showed the results of day 14 either. They also refused to share their secondary endpoint data, namely “the clinical effectiveness of treatment on time to apyrexia, normalization of respiratory rate, and average length of hospital stay and mortality”. Basically, it is none of anyone’s business to know if the therapy had any clinical benefit for the patients." "Another PubPeer user re-ran the analysis, because “an important number of non-treated patients were not tested by PCR (ND)“. Once the ND values were disregarded, there wasn’t any more significant difference between controls and chloroquine-treated patients." "Statistical and ethical problems with that Gautret et al 2020 study were addressed extensively in this preprint by Dahly, Gates & Morris zenodo 2020. The authors also reject Raoult’s claims about previous positive results from China:" . . . ISAC now replaced and backdated the statement. As I was told by Voss, this happened on orders from Elsevier, who apparently decided ISAC scientists are not qualified to form an opinion about clinical research. The original ISAC statement from 3 April is deleted and replaced with a joint statement of ISAC together with Elsevier. The critical first paragraph is gone, but this is added: “At present, additional independent peer review is ongoing to ascertain whether concerns about the research content of the paper have merit. Given this process of post-publication assessment is on-going, it would be premature to comment at this time. The study authors have been contacted and asked to address the concerns. Depending on the nature of their response, a correction to the scientific record may be considered in accordance with the policies of Elsevier and the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE): https://www.elsevier.com/editors/perk/corrections-to-the-record.” rhampton7

Why aren't we reading about pH levels of patients? Why aren't we reading about the cellular concentration of zinc in patients? The lack of that information says quite a bit about these studies. ET

"You were told the concept of a placebo is irrelevant in this situation as well unethical" Yes Jerry, you and KF are the arbiters of the HCQ science and have settled the matter for all of the world. We know. Meanwhile, the scientists of the world continue doing silly RCTs and finding outcomes not supportive of the "miracle cure" touted by the French Doctors of one particular institute. rhampton7

Patients hospitalized for Covid-19 and treated with hydroxychloroquine are more likely to return home one month after the start of treatment, according to a French study, which concludes, however, that it is not effective to reduce mortality. "Significantly higher rates of discharge from hospital have been observed in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine" , concludes this study published online on Saturday but not yet published. The rate of patients returning home 28 days after starting treatment is 11 points higher than those who did not receive this drug, a derivative of the antimalarial chloroquine and usually used to treat autoimmune diseases like lupus . This represents a 25% relative increase in the likelihood of being discharged from hospital, the study said. This result, which had not been highlighted in previous research on hydroxychloroquine, "deserves to be replicated in other large studies" to be confirmed, said one of the authors, Émilie Sbidian, interviewed by AFP. The study concluded, however, that "there was no statistically significant difference in 28-day mortality" between the patients who received hydroxychloroquine and the control group, "after taking confounding factors into account" . As for those who received the antibiotic azithromycin in addition to hydroxychloroquine, the study found no difference in the rate of discharge from hospital and "a possible excess risk of mortality" . The researchers analyzed the medical records of approximately 4,642 patients hospitalized for Covid-19 in one of the 39 AP-HP hospitals between February 1 and April 6. https://www.laprovence.com/actu/en-direct/6025333/hydroxychloroquine-une-etude-conclut-a-un-effet-positif-sur-le-retour-a-domicile-pas-sur-la-mortalite.htm rhampton7

You just demonstrated that you do not read or do not understand.

but hundreds if not thousands who were involved in these studies against HCQ... I do not want your 100k, but you may donate it to a reputable charity of your choice

You were told the concept of a placebo is irrelevant in this situation as well unethical. You continue to publish irrelevant stuff which means you have no relevant information. Which means you are proving the opposite. Besides the doctor offering the 100K would consider all your information worthless because it has no relevance. So you would end owing him if it became a bet. You have published zero information that refutes Zelenko or Raoult. Who by the way has a lot of doctors backing their approach. jerry

I just perused a list of Didier Raoult‘s publications. The one thing that jumps out is the sheer quantity of them. Forgive me if I am skeptical of the level of involvement he has had in these papers. Ed George

Graphic: Where Coronavirus Hospitalizations Are Rising https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106587054-1592833209149-20200622_current_hospitalization_subplots-01-01.png?v=1592833366&w=1910 rhampton7

Jerry That's the purpose of RCTs, to demonstrate the effectiveness of a proposed drug against a placebo or a known treatment. So there's not just one doctor, but hundreds if not thousands who were involved in these studies against HCQ. I do not want your 100k, but you may donate it to a reputable charity of your choice rhampton7

Didier Raoult willingly brandishes the number of his articles as proof of his scientific seriousness. Researchers Yves Gringras and Mahdi Khelfaoui looked for The Conversation in a journal, New Microbes and New Infections, in which he has published extensively. “What is striking for a journal claiming to" cover almost the entire scientific world "is the fact that […] France represents 50% of the total of articles, whereas this country has produced only around 7% of publications global, " note the authors. On closer inspection, the researchers find that “the editor is based in Marseille, and among the six other French members of the associated editorial committee, composed of fifteen members, we find five researchers from Marseille. […] We do not know of prestigious scientific journals which accept that almost half of its editorial scientific committee is concentrated in the same city ” . This is a reminder that bibliometrics is an index that can be manipulated and in which blind trust should not be placed. https://www.liberation.fr/direct/element/derriere-les-impressionants-chiffres-de-publication-de-didier-raoult_115259/ https://theconversation.com/etre-juge-et-partie-ou-comment-controler-une-revue-scientifique-140595 rhampton7

RHampton continues to publish irrelevant fake news. The real news story is why did these hospitals use a drug when not warranted. But you do not see that. There was a 1960's song with lyrics, "When will they ever learn." From the song, "Where have all the Flowers Gone" which was about death. The same could be said today about the irresponsible medical behavior on treating the virus and the fake news reporting. From a American doctor, Dr. Richard Urso https://bit.ly/37RZI6R

I want one physician in the entire world who used HCQ early, to show me it didn’t work. It doesn’t work for docs who gave toxic doses, fabricated data and never saw pts before sepsis. Oh, and their sorry “scientific” fan club. 100k to anyone to prove me wrong.

And in the following comment RHampton publishes ad hominem arguments against Dr. Raoult Missed in Rhampton's searches https://bit.ly/3fRCgt5

HCQ beneficial as preventive drug: SMS doctors told ICMR

RHampton can cherry pick with the best but misses some of the best cherries. And another he missed https://bit.ly/37XWvCP

Pre exposure Hydroxychloroquine use is associated with reduced COVID19 risk in healthcare workers

jerry

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to remind us just how messy and maddening science can be. At times, it seems that we’re making real headway, and then abruptly, the progress is stalled. Or worse. Three recent examples of high-profile reversals highlight the challenges of working on urgent problems at the cutting edge of medical science. The most recent, and perhaps most conspicuous reversal is the FDA’s recent revocation of the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) it has originally issued for hydroxychloroquine (and chloroquine) on March 28. When data, including a gold-standard randomized-control study, revealed that the drug apparently offered no benefit to COVID-19 patients, the EUA was withdrawn. While most scientists agree with the latest decision, there is almost universal consensus that the original approval represented a political, rather than a scientific, decision. . . . Over time, we’re sure to learn more about Surgisphere, as well as the review processes that led two top journals to overlook such critically flawed papers. It’s possible that the editorial appeal of the conclusions—indictment of Trump’s favorite drug, acquittal of two common blood pressure medicines—helped speed things along. Because it turns out that Donald Trump is instinctively right about one thing: Science, as practiced, can be as political, as personal, and as petty as every other area of human endeavor. But science—unlike our chief executive—also tends to be self-correcting. And for all its flaws, science still remains our best hope to defeat this deadly virus. https://www.aei.org/articles/three-recent-reversals-highlight-the-challenges-of-covid-science/ rhampton7

A fast-tracked clinical trial exploring the potential benefits of hydroxychloroquine in treating COVID-19 has concluded as abruptly as it began. The study, announced in early April, enrolled nearly 500 patients being treated for COVID-19 at 34 hospitals, with the largest share at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, which was the study’s lead site. Half received hydroxychloroquine and half took a placebo. The early findings showed no harm and no benefit, “so there’s no reason to keep going,” says investigator Wesley Self, an emergency physician at VUMC. “We decided the answer was there in our data on Friday night. So literally, immediately, we’re beginning to push those answers out to the public,” Self says. https://www.wknofm.org/post/vanderbilt-led-study-promising-covid-19-treatment-closes-showing-no-benefit rhampton7

KUALA LUMPUR, June 22 — The Health Ministry has stopped administering malaria medication hydroxychloroquine on Covid-19 patients, seeing that it has no effect on those infected with the pandemic. Director-general Datuk Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said that the ministry was using it on Covid-19 patients as an off-label medication because it has anti-inflammatory properties but after around 500 cases, data has proven that it was ineffective. “We used it because it has anti-inflammatory properties for the beginning stages of Covid-19. But when we collect the data, after around 500 cases, we found that there was no positive effect of the medication. “When there is no effect, we stop using it. At the same time, we were informed that there was a 30 per cent complication rate on using the medication — it can affect the heart and so on, so we had to monitor its usage. https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/06/22/health-ministry-stopped-using-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-covid-19-patients/1877828 rhampton7

F/N: A reminder: https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed/ >>Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed John P.A. Ioannidis1, Sally Cripps2, Martin A. Tanner3 COVID-19 is a major acute crisis with unpredictable consequences. Many scientists have struggled to make forecasts about its impact [1]. However, despite involving many excellent modelers, best intentions, and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed. Experienced modelers drew early on parallels between COVID-19 and the Spanish flu [2] that caused >50 million deaths with mean age at death being 28. We all lament the current loss of life. However, as of June 8, total fatalities are ~410,000 with median age ~80 and typically multiple comorbidities. Predictions for hospital and ICU bed requirements were also entirely misinforming. Public leaders trusted models (sometimes even black boxes without disclosed methodology) inferring massively overwhelmed health care capacity (Table 1) [3]. However, eventually very few hospitals were stressed, for a couple of weeks. Most hospitals maintained largely empty wards, waiting for tsunamis that never came. The general population was locked and placed in horror-alert to save the health system from collapsing. Tragically, many health systems faced major adverse consequences, not by COVID-19 cases overload, but for very different reasons. Patients with heart attacks avoided visiting hospitals for care [4], important treatments (e.g. for cancer) were unjustifiably delayed [5], mental health suffered [6]. With damaged operations, many hospitals started losing personnel, reducing capacity to face future crises (e.g. a second wave). With massive new unemployment, more people may lose health insurance. The prospects of starvation and of lack of control for other infectious diseases (like tuberculosis, malaria, and childhood communicable diseases for which vaccination is hindered by the COVID-19 measures) are dire [7,8] . . . . Failure in epidemic forecasting is an old problem. In fact, it is surprising that epidemic forecasting has retained much credibility among decision-makers, given its dubious track record. Modeling for swine flu predicted 3,100-65,000 deaths in the UK [11]. Eventually only 457 deaths occurred [12]. The prediction for foot-and-mouth disease expected up to 150,000 deaths in the UK [13] and led to slaughtering millions of animals. However, the lower bound of the prediction was as low as only 50 deaths [13], a figure close to the eventual fatalities. Predictions may work in “ideal”, isolated communities with homogeneous populations, not the complex current global world..>> The professionals were responsible to inform policymakers and their advisors of limitations. The public also has a right to know. This is a governance failure not just a technical one, and it has implications attendant on economic disruption. KF kairosfocus

Apple, On Friday, said it would shut 11 stores, seven in Arizona, two in Florida, two in North Carolina and one in South Carolina, that it had reopened just a few weeks ago. It's not clear whether other retailers will follow en masse, although one analyst expects hard-hit stores to stay open unless forced to close by local authorities. Many other businesses, including manufacturing, travel, dining, and entertainment, have been steadily reopening where they can while taking health precautions. But some have recently pulled back or paused their plans. Because US efforts to contain the pandemic haven't been particularly successful, the situation "could ultimately lead to a need for more prolonged shut-downs" that would reduce consumer spending and cost jobs, said Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. In public remarks Friday, Rosengren said he expected the economic rebound this year would be less than what was initially hoped for at the pandemic's outset, and that the unemployment rate would remain in double-digits. https://www.freepressjournal.in/world/coronavirus-in-us-fearing-spread-of-covid-19-apple-re-closes-some-stores-washington-raises-economic-concerns rhampton7

A report by the Coronavirus National Information and Knowledge Center said Israel is experiencing a second wave of coronavirus and that hundreds of people could die from COVID-19 this summer. The report, published on the backdrop of a continual spike in cases, comes as the government approved resuming cultural events and ahead of another meeting of the coronavirus cabinet, set to take place on Sunday. “If no action is taken and the current growth rate does not decrease significantly,” the report states, “then in a month, the number of new daily infections will be over 1,000 and the number of dead will reach many hundreds.” It added that, “this situation could lead to exceedingly difficult financial decisions, to the point of closure.” https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israel-is-in-coronavirus-second-wave-dead-could-reach-hundreds-report-632147 rhampton7

Earlier this week, researchers in the United Kingdom announced preliminary results from a clinical trial that showed a low-cost steroid called dexamethasone appeared to lower the risk of death in patients with COVID-19. But details of the study did not accompany the announcement. And the announcement followed several prominent revisions in the advice that researchers have given around the coronavirus in recent weeks. Which is why Dr. Kirsten Lyke, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, warns that a premature endorsement for the treatment can carry risks. Lyke, who is running a coronavirus vaccine trial, said that, particularly when dealing with a new kind of virus, we “need to be extremely cautious” when rolling out treatments that have not gone through a rigorous vetting process. “Many of us would like to see the peer review paper to understand how these people were randomized, who was not randomized. That’s important to know,” Lyke said. https://www.opb.org/news/article/npr-doctor-warns-of-risks-in-rush-to-embrace-a-covid-19-treatment/ rhampton7

The National Institutes of Health said Saturday it would halt its hydroxychloroquine trial after a study showed no harm or benefit from the malaria drug's use for COVID-19. The "Outcomes Related to COVID-19" study, which the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, part of the NIH, conducted, found that the drug provided no benefit compared to a placebo in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, a statement said. A data and safety monitoring board recommended the NHLBI stop the study, prompting the halt. The board "determined that while there was no harm, the study drug was very unlikely to be beneficial to hospitalized patients with COVID-19," the NIH said in the statement. https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/06/20/NIH-halts-hydroxychloroquine-trial-study-showed-no-harm-or-benefit/6531592679738/ rhampton7

As a physician, I cannot state with any confidence if hydroxychloroquine is effective for treating COVID-19. But I have stated vociferously that decisions regarding the off??label use of any drug to treat any condition should be up to health care practitioners and their patients. Politics and central planning only lead to negative unintended consequences. In the case of hydroxychloroquine, politics and central planning impeded empirical treatment and the collection of evidence on its use in COVID-19 infections. It also distorted the production and supply of hydroxychloroquine and caused needless, wasteful stockpiling. Meanwhile, empiric use and clinical trials of off??label dexamethasone for COVID-19 has been uninvolved with politics. Perhaps we should be grateful that President Trump hadn’t heard about it. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/dexamethasone-vs-hydroxychloroquine-race-coronavirus-cure-shows-why-politics-and-science rhampton7

The US no longer cares about covid-19. The IFR is so low and OTC supplements can help defeat it. The only people who have to worry are those who are already on their way out or who have underlying health issues. ET

Rhampton7 June 19, 2020 at 3:55 pm As coronavirus patients recover from the illness, doctors and patients are discovering that COVID-19 is leaving the “recovered” with long-term debilitating physical, cognitive and psychiatric damage, sometimes even in people who only suffered mild symptoms.

That’s what I’m most worried about. In my age group I’m not too likely to die from the virus, but some people seem to recover but lose 20 or 30% of their lung capacity. Or have strokes. This virus is awful. Retired Physicist

My friend who works at the Mayo Clinic in Jacksonville says they’re working overtime to “stage” because they expect ICUs to be overwhelmed in about 2 weeks. Retired Physicist

Here in Florida we had 3,822 new cases yesterday. It’s not a second wave, we’re still in the first wave because we reopened about a month ago. Retired Physicist

This chart puts the US response to COVID-19 into perspective. https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1273973204047069184?s=21 Ed George

Professor Didier Raoult, the main promoter of a controversial treatment against Covid-19, said that the epidemic was "ending" on May 12. The doctor no longer rules out a second wave. The doctor at the IHU in Marseille, at the heart of the controversy surrounding hydroxychloroquine as a treatment with Covid-19, has reversed his previous predictions and is now considering the seasonal return to the epidemic. A new predictive analysis that contradicts his much sharper comments from May 12. Professor Raoult then explained, still on video, that "Nowhere is there a second wave, or the back of a camel". "The epidemic is coming to an end," he said then. The Minister of Health Olivier Véran had denounced media outings "not very responsible". http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/coronavirus-didier-raoult-se-contredit-et-evoque-desormais-une-deuxieme-vague-epidemique-20200619 rhampton7

Swiss drugmaker Novartis is halting its trial of malaria drug hydroxychloroquine against COVID-19 after struggling to find participants, as data emerged from other studies raising doubts about its efficacy. Novartis' trial began in April and sought to test the drug in 440 hospitalised patients. But the project only managed to recruit a handful. The Basel-based company said its study, so far, raised no safety issues and drew no conclusions about the drug's efficacy. Novartis had donated up to 130 million doses of hydroxychloroquine, including millions in the United States, and chief executive Vas Narasimhan two months ago pegged it as the company's biggest hope against the new coronavirus. https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/novartis-halts-trials-of-malaria-drug/news-story/c86a1de1d5c464462037eaeac14ae0d0 rhampton7

Not ACE2, but... The researchers studied more than 700 blood samples of patients admitted at the medical centre during the first Covid wave in Israel. “We took blood samples from 80 patients in Hadassah’s Outbreak Department (in Jerusalem) and found a high concentration of alpha defensin … The sicker the person, the higher the concentration of this peptide,” Dr Higavi said. The results indicated that alpha defensin speeds up blood clot formation which can cause pulmonary embolism (the blockage of arteries in the lungs by a substance that has moved through the bloodstream), heart attacks or a stroke. Moreover, when a clot is formed in the alveoli, which are tiny air sacs in lungs that exchange oxygen and carbon dioxide molecules in the bloodstream, it can lead to distress in breathing and eventual intubation. rhampton7

As coronavirus patients recover from the illness, doctors and patients are discovering that COVID-19 is leaving the “recovered” with long-term debilitating physical, cognitive and psychiatric damage, sometimes even in people who only suffered mild symptoms. Dr. Itzik Levy, an expert in infectious diseases at the Sheba Medical Center in Tel Aviv, said he believes these problems are caused by the effects of the virus on the brain. “We know that corona causes disruptions in the blood vessels and in clotting, and so it can cause brain trauma, even mild forms, that you won’t even see on a scan, that won’t show up as a stroke or something,” he told Channel 12. “But it can be manifested as cognitive disruptions, or in some cases as changes in personality.” “We don’t really know if it is reversible or not, or how long will it last,” he added. The long term effects of COVID-19 are not just cognitive and mental, the TV report highlighted, but also include debilitating physical damage. Noting that reports from China showed that some patients ultimately need lung transplants, Onn added, “We are talking about a disease that we have no idea how it it behaves.” https://www.timesofisrael.com/recovered-covid-19-patients-suffer-major-ongoing-physical-cognitive-problems/ rhampton7

A team of researchers at the Hadassah University Medical Centre in Jerusalem have found the source of blood clots in coronavirus patients

MedCram has about 3-4 videos on this and the probable cause. It has to do with the epithelial cells of blood capillaries having ACE2 receptors and are attacked by the virus which then cause the cells to deteriorate and this then releases substances that cause clotting behind the epithelial cells.

The breakthrough, which the team will report in the journal Nature, means that doctors can immediately start treating hospitalized patients with dexamethasone.

While there was a lot of hype for this drug, apparently it had no effect of those not on ventilation. In other words it was no better than HCQ, But for more advanced in the virus and on ventilation, it did reduce deaths. MedCram 85 covers dexamethasone as well as different types of oxygen enhancing (ventilation) in detail. Again RHampton reports irrelevant information from the hospitals in San Antonio. The psychological effects due to clotting that RHampton commented on in the following comment would not show up if the virus was treated early. There would be no progression to clotting issues. I suggest RHampton watch the videos from MedCram and report on them. The comments will be more relevant once he understand the issues. MedCram covers the issues he brings up in the previous and next couple comments that he makes. jerry

When San Antonio’s hospitals began seeing COVID-19 patients in March, they were in uncharted territory. Early on, many doctors were treating coronavirus patients with hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine. on Monday, the FDA revoked its emergency authorization for the drugs, citing a different randomized study of hospitalized patients that found no improvements to mortality rates or recovery times. “That squares with our experience with it,” said Jones, of Methodist. “We were giving it and really weren’t seeing anything with it.” Other experimental but promising treatments have risen to take its place. One, the antiviral remdesivir, was tested on COVID-19 patients in San Antonio as part of a national study. Doctors are now also administering convalescent plasma collected from those who have recovered from COVID-19 to some of their sickest patients. Transfusions of blood plasma have long been used for diseases without a cure to equip the ill with disease-fighting antibodies. The use of both therapies are supported by data from strong clinical trials, said Dr. Marc Chalaby, a pulmonologist and chief of intensive care medicine at Christus Santa Rosa Hospital in the Medical Center. https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Here-s-what-San-Antonio-doctors-have-learned-15352708.php rhampton7

A team of researchers at the Hadassah University Medical Centre in Jerusalem have found the source of blood clots in coronavirus patients that causes rashes, swollen legs and sometimes sudden death. The researchers have also revealed a treatment for the clots. According to several global studies, at least 30 per cent of patients who test positive for coronavirus develop clots that block the flow of blood to their kidneys, heart, lungs and brain. Dr Higavi had published a paper in the American Society of Hematology journal Blood, about alpha defensin, which is a peptide or a short chain of amino acids. They found that alpha defensin increases the speed of creation of blood clots and prevents their disintegration. The researchers found that administering a drug called colchicine to mice inhibited the release of alpha defensin. Colchicine is used in the prevention and treatment of gout attacks, which are caused by an excess of uric acid in blood. While the tests conducted on mice proved the be successful, Dr Higavi and his team are waiting for approvals for human trials. The clinical trials will investigate the use of colchicine in severe and mild or moderate cases of Covid-19. https://theprint.in/health/jerusalem-researchers-find-whats-causing-blood-clots-in-covid-cases-possible-treatment-too/444494/ rhampton7

On June 16, 2020, scientists at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom announced the first drug proven to reduce mortality in people with severe COVID-19. The breakthrough, which the team will report in the journal Nature, means that doctors can immediately start treating hospitalized patients with dexamethasone. This is a cheap, readily available steroid that has been in widespread use for decades. Drugs with a proven safety record, such as dexamethasone, have a clear advantage over novel treatments and vaccines; after a relatively swift clinical trial, national drug regulators can immediately approve their use. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/amp/articles/duo-of-antiviral-drugs-strongly-inhibits-sars-cov-2-in-the-lab rhampton7

I am very thankful to Jerry for pointing out the MedCram videos. My household is well prepared to take on the virus and defeat it in its initial stages if one of us should become infected. And the cool thing is it is the same regimen we use to fight influenza with the addition of quercetin. Also it is very telling that "flu season" just happens to coincide with shorter days which leads to lower vitamin D blood concentrations (unless supplementation of D3 is added). ET

I never said that vitamin D cures udders. That's just udderly ridiculous. I never said is was an "utter cure", either. Vitamin D concentrations of 40ng/mL increases survivability. Especially in those who are otherwise healthy- i.e. no underlying health issues. Obesity runs rampant in our societies, though. Sugar is killing us, slowly. Smoking and drinking put huge dents in our immune system. So eating healthy would include severely reducing or eliminating smoking, sugar and alcohol. Your body does need glucose. It would also include daily physical activity. ET

Jerry, I'd suggest they are credibly significantly effective treatments. The real restoration of health is coming from the body, starting with the immune system (that is kept from going into a deadly storm). KF kairosfocus

But they are not the utter cure you claimed.

But zinc and HCQ might be the cure and may be the best along with Azithromycin. And there could be several others. But a good immune system will likely prevent the virus taking hold. One of the top Korean doctors dealing with C19 said back in mid March that the immune system starts going south about 60. Obviously varies by individual. And this is what is causing the extremely elderly susceptibility to the virus. Why don't you watch the MedCram videos on Vitamin D. It is video 83 and also is amazing in that it points to high fructose syrup as a culprit. Everyone should look at 82 first since it discusses the disparity by race in Vitamin D and how it might be affecting response to the virus. Seheult who runs the MedCram site is a living breathing doctor and a good reporter on the current science affecting the treatment and spread of the virus. He has been working several days a week in the ICU with C19 patients since the start. He as well as many other sites have been part of the information shared on this site for the last 3 months. This site is generally very good source of good information about the virus and other things. But one of the obvious things is that people who comment here fail to read the links and then fail to understand the issues involved with the virus as its various stages. jerry

COVID-19 Deaths Are Being Linked to Vitamin D Deficiency. Here's What That Means:

Preliminary results from a yet-to-be-peer-reviewed study carried out by scientists from the Queen Elizabeth Hospital Foundation Trust and the University of East Anglia have linked low levels of the hormone vitamin D with COVID-19 mortality rates across Europe.

ET

Clearly you didn't read the papers I referenced. Your willful ignorance is not a refutation. ET

Yes? Your claim was “If people would just eat healthy, maintain a vitamin D concentration of 40 ng/mL, they would survive the virus.” Nothing you posted supports that. Eating healthy and having adequate D are fine things and certainly help. But they are not the utter cure you claimed. Retired Physicist

RP? ET

Yes, KF, it should be mandatory for people to get outside to get 30 minutes of sun over as much of their body as the law allows. :cool: ET

RH7, 220: This jumps out:

HCQ was found to be ineffective in hospitalised Covid-19 patients

After all that has been pointed out, umpteen times, that alone should serve to underscore Jerry's point in 221:

Again RHampton presents irrelevant information as if it is important. He has been told several times why his information is useless. He is just proving that the origins for his stories do not know anything about the issues.

This problem, of failing the stitch in time test is also responsible for many of the seeming failures of testing. There is a U, and if you are too far down the falling arm, too much damage has been done for HCQ cocktails to help. Though, Ivermectin may be stretching that a bit. Notice, the Raoult CT scans show how early lung damage has already set in. Serious rethinking is needed but if you imagine you are right, that will not happen. Unfortunately, such blunders have been baked into policies. KF kairosfocus

ET, the vit D issue raises, why lock people indoors? Go outside! KF kairosfocus

SNL Weekend Update:

Sweden’s hopes of getting help from herd immunity in combating the coronavirus received a fresh blow on Thursday when the entire herd died. In other news...

ET

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyau says there won’t be any furthering easing of coronavirus restrictions until a recent spike in infections goes back down. There is no doubt that we need to stop the disease,” Netanyahu says at a ceremony to install a new director-general at the Health Ministry. “The disease is coming back and we have, for the time being, finished with opening up more of the economy.” Netanyahu says there will be semi-lockdowns enforced on areas that have high infection rates. “There is no choice, we need to change the public’s habits and if it doesn’t help we will take more aggressive measures,” he warns. “We will do everything needed to halt the continued spread of the disease — as we did at the start.” https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-june-18-2020/ rhampton7

Sweden's hopes of getting help from herd immunity in combating the coronavirus received a fresh blow on Thursday when a new study showed fewer than anticipated had developed antibodies. the study, the most comprehensive in Sweden yet, showed only around 6.1 percent of Swedes had developed antibodies, well below levels deemed enough to achieve even partial herd immunity. "The spread is lower than we have thought but not a lot lower," Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told a news conference, adding that the virus spread in clusters and was not behaving like prior diseases. We have different levels of immunity on different parts of the population at this stage, from 4 to 5 percent to 20 to 25 percent," he said. Tegnell told UK-based daily Financial Times in April that Sweden expects 40 percent of people in the capital Stockholm to be immune to Covid-19 by the end of May. https://www.trtworld.com/europe/sweden-s-hopes-for-herd-immunity-in-covid-19-fight-diminish-37399 rhampton7

IThis article is interesting. It mentions vitamin D and zinc as essential elements for a strong immune system: Nutritional recommendations for CoVID-19 quarantine:

Vitamin D deficiency in winter has been reported to be associated to viral epidemics. Indeed, adequate vitamin D status reduces the risk of developing several chronic diseases such as cancers, cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension that significantly higher risk of death from respiratory tract infections than otherwise healthy individuals [10]. Further, vitamin D protects respiratory tract preserving tight junctions, killing enveloped viruses through induction of cathelicidin and defensins, and decreasing production of proinflammatory cytokines by the innate immune system, therefore reducing the risk of a cytokine storm leading to pneumonia. Since the time spent outdoor and consequently the sun exposure is limited, it is encouraged to get more vitamin D from diet.

zinc:

Another essential trace element that is crucial for the maintenance of immune function is zinc. It has been reported that zinc inhibited severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) template binding and elongation in Vero-E6 cells [11].

It must suck being easily refuted by people you think are beneath you, eh, RP? ET

Oklahoma cases of COVID-19 rose by 450 on Thursday, blowing past the record 259 daily cases reported on Wednesday, as the surge of infections continued ahead of a massive rally for President Donald Trump and demonstrations set for this weekend in Tulsa. The surge in COVID-19 cases in Oklahoma is being driven largely by increases among younger people, according to state Health Department figures that show 54% of the new cases in the past two weeks were people 35 and younger. Meanwhile, hospitalizations topped 200 for the first time since May 20, rising to 211, according to information released Thursday evening. The surge in cases comes as tens of thousands of people plan to gather in Tulsa this weekend for Juneteenth activities, Trump’s re-election rally and demonstrations connected to the rally. Public health officials have cautioned that participants risk infection or spreading the disease. The Trump campaign announced that it would take temperatures at the door and distribute masks and hand sanitizer, though people won’t have to wear the masks. https://oklahoman.com/article/5664934/new-covid-19-cases-blow-past-previous-record-hospitalizations-rise rhampton7

Now what, RP?

Must be a conspiracy! Everyone knows Vitamin D is useless. RP is on record that zinc is useless too. By the way the two doctors and the nurse I linked to all said HCQ and zinc works and should be given early. However the great real scientists RHampton continually links to never heard of the effective strategy to beat the virus early. jerry

Strange that I provided medical papers that support the claim that vitamin D can definitely help beat this virus: Raising vitamin D blood concentrations above 40ng/mL seems to be highly recommended. It, alone, most likely would have saved thousands of people: Ilie PC, et al. “The role of vitamin D in the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 infection and mortality.” Aging Clin Exp Res. 2020;1:4. Grant WB, et al. “Evidence that vitamin D supplementation could reduce risk of influenza and COVID-19 infections and deaths.” Nutrients. 2020;12(4):E988. Now what, RP? ET

Again RHampton presents irrelevant information as if it is important. He has been told several times why his information is useless. He is just proving that the origins for his stories do not know anything about the issues. jerry

Twenty-two trial sites in India will stop the hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) arm of the Solidarity Trial to find an effective Covid-19 treatment following the WHO’s announcement that the drug was futile in reducing mortality in hospitalized coronavirus patients. “The results confirm with high a degree of confidence that hydroxychloroquine is not effective at reducing mortality in hospitalised Covid-19 patients,” the executive group of the steering committee of the Solidarity Trial, chaired by John-Arne Røttingen, has said. Dr Srinath Reddy, of the executive group, along with WHO chief scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan, are among the members. Dr Reddy told The Indian Express that an amended protocol would be circulated soon. Dr Samiran Panda, director of NARI, also said HCQ was found to be ineffective in hospitalised Covid-19 patients but since it was an adaptive trial there is an opportunity to contribute to other key public health questions that have not yet been reliably answered. “We have issued instructions about stopping the HCQ arm of the trial to coordinators at trial sites. However, the decision to continue HCQ for patients who have been started on it can be taken by the supervising physician,” Dr Godbole explained. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/after-who-move-22-trial-sites-in-india-to-stop-hcq-research-6465702/ India accounts for 70 per cent of global production of hydroxychloroquine rhampton7

Texas 3,357 California 3.787

You should work for Lancet. You can cherry pick with the best. See

Deaths Texas 2142 California 5362 Canada 8300

Now Canada is doing pretty good. And Texas has just opened up the state and is a lot more dense. Over 40% of the deaths in Texas are in the 3 counties for Dallas, Houston and Ft. Worth. No one favoring lockdowns has ever talked about the cost in lives that it has caused. jerry

Canada had 358 new cases today. All else being equal, based on population size, the US should have had approximately 3,580 new cases. They had 27,924. But it was pointed out to me that it would be more appropriate to compare Canada numbers to similar sized states. Texas 3,357 California 3.787 So, the US as a whole had almost 8 times more new cases than Canada on a per capita basis. Texas and California, which have comparable populations to Canada, had ten times more new cases. Ed George

Two doctors talk about the corruption involved in controlling the virus. One a cardiologist from California and one an emergency doctor from New York. https://bit.ly/3dfweB9 The MedCram doctor recently reviewed the effect of Vitamin D on C19. Those interested should look at Update 82 and Update 83. One would have to be a fool not to ensure their Vitamin D levels are high.

And I’m sure they also have a strangely high number of deaths they’re recording as pneumonia.

Must be a conspiracy. Those interested should watch the video I linked to above with the nurse in New York City who observed a horror show of how people were treated there and saw patient records falsified. She must be a conspiracy theory nut. https://bit.ly/37RGy1b Check out 38 min for about 5 minutes to see what she saw what worked. jerry

New cases in Texas are also skyrocketing. It opened up too early, just like Florida. And I’m sure they also have a strangely high number of deaths they’re recording as pneumonia. Retired Physicist

I am not a doctor. Well, I’m not a physician. The idea that you’ll beat Covid with some Vitamin D....well...I did see a guy one time give people his recipe of essential oils that would beat Ebola. Both ideas are equally meritorious. Retired Physicist

I guess congregating in the street rioting, looting and demonstrating is more important than keeping people alive. Who cares if 100 people die every day because Acartia Eddie and its ilk want to be entitled losers. If people would just eat healthy, maintain a vitamin D concentration of 40 ng/mL, they would survive the virus. But people don't seem to be able to do that. That is where natural selection comes in. ET

RP@212, I guess being able to congregate at the beach and hang out in bars is more important than keeping people alive. Who cares if 1000 people die every day because Joe Gallien wants a beer. We all want to get back to normal but not doing it in a slow and stage manner is just stupid. Hence the inability of the US to reduce their rate of daily new cases. Ed George

https://www.newsweek.com/multiple-florida-hospitals-run-out-icu-beds-coronavirus-cases-spike-1511934?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1592503654 Retired Physicist

Wow. The projection is killing me. I only respond to personal attacks. I only respond to lies and BS. Your polarizing lies and BS, at that. All you do is try to make things personal. My left big toe has more credibility than you do, Acartia Eddie. ET

KF

EG, your resort to attempted personalising and polarising simply underscores your credibility at this point: ZERO.

If personalizing and polarization is a measure of credibility then ET must be at negative infinity and beyond. :) Ed George

He wants to be a martyr. He keeps trying to fall on his sword but he keeps missing. ET

EG, your resort to attempted personalising and polarising simply underscores your credibility at this point: ZERO. Your failure to walk back assertions i/l/o 163 above clenches over the nails. KF kairosfocus

As for HCQ, go tell the people that it saved that it didn't save them. Go tell the doctors that administered it that it didn't have any effect. Why are you still here? You are needed out there, convincing the masses that were spared, that it was something else. Maybe a fairy. ET

LoL! @ Acartia Eddie- I didn't say anything about Dr. Fauci. I just made a factual statement in response to your, one, factual statement. Obviously Acartia Eddie needs to take some calming medication. ET

The same can be said for the N95. I would say only a sealed hazmat suit would do that.

See KF. Even your poorly trained lap dog agrees that Fauci didn’t lie about the use of masks. Ed George

In Massachusetts masks are mandatory. Most, if not all, businesses have the sign "No Mask/ No Entrance". But here we have a good supply of medical masks being widely sold. Cloth masks are all the rage. It's a great, new advertising platform. ET

Acartia Eddie:

Cloth masks do not prevent you from contracting COVID-19.

The same can be said for the N95. I would say only a sealed hazmat suit would do that. ET

KF

Masks reduce transmissibility at modest cost, flattening curve slope and likely height of saturation. That requires cooperative behaviouir, and on statistics it seems likely to work as advertised

I agree. And good government leads by example. https://images.app.goo.gl/VtnutCkWGf38QtFN8 https://images.app.goo.gl/H2fQkbyYqLmLpWJC8 https://images.app.goo.gl/hbLNaBsB9N9Ubx1M8 Ed George

EG, you have said nothing of serious substance. Right at the beginning, we took time to look at logistic curves for epidemics. Masks reduce transmissibility at modest cost, flattening curve slope and likely height of saturation. That requires cooperative behaviouir, and on statistics it seems likely to work as advertised. Thus, we have context for inferring on quality of decisions. Resort to deception is a red flag. Silence was enabling. KF kairosfocus

RP, kindly take time to read 163 above, noting how the author tries to dance his way around a devastating admission against interest. I need not point out how rapidly mask making capacity was ramped up including here, save to note I bought my locally sewn mask in a supermarket (to go with my much more serious "gas mask lite" ones from 25 years ago -- volcano dust hazard -- and recently . . . I never had occasion to go for full eye-cup goggles, shades and glasses were good enough eye cover). That mask has a pocket and I quickly identified levels of filter for it, using air melt felted fabric. For example, some types of wet wipe. I'm sure the instructions came from any of what hundreds of YT vids out there. The report I posted shows that countries in Asia hit by previous epidemics are convinced of the efficacy. The statistics look like supporting that view, as does the electrostatics of particles flowing through fields of fibres. For that matter I have seen how a ball of cotton string works as a highly effective industrial water filter. So, the dynamics look right. With that on the table, the relevant bureaucrats resorted to deception. That's a sign, and it is telling. Credibility self-destruct. KF kairosfocus

This was an article about a high school friend of mine and her parents. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5608275 Ed George

Yet Canada’s new case rate has been constantly declining since the peak. The US’s has not.

If true, it is relevant? Is there a reason for why the case rate in the US while declining it not declining rapidly? Is there a better metric than case rate? For those who have not contacted the virus, will they eventually get the virus or not. If not, why not? What will prevent them from getting the virus? Is that desirable? jerry

KF

Ds, a medical doctor in a position of major trust lies to those looking to him on a matter of life and death, taking advantage of prestige, position, star power credibility,

What do you think would happen if he told everyone to wear masks? As it was, the US hijacked shipments of N95 masks bought and paid for by other countries to provide them to their health care workers. He banned the shipment of N95 masks from 3M to Canada even though 3M relied on Canada to provide the materials necessary to manufacture the masks. And let’s face a fact. Cloth masks do not prevent you from contracting COVID-19. It lowers the risk of an infected person from transmitting it to another person. And let’s look at another fact. The chief medical officer in Canada also advised against using masks in the early stages. Yet Canada’s new case rate has been constantly declining since the peak. The US’s has not. You are just pissy because Fauci cautioned against the use of HCQ until RCTs had demonstrated its effectiveness. Ed George

"I never said anything that your comment responds to." RP, Yes you did. You referred to a "global Scientific community" that you believe in. Childish stuff. Andrew asauber

And indicates someone has had very little exposure to real living breathing scientists.

We just had an incident where supposedly top scientists were caught lying about their research. The Lancet study. I don't think that is a conspiracy. I believe they were breathing. They were fairly stupid too, publishing impossible data. There have been many others. jerry

Asauber you’re arguing with a strawman. I never said anything that your comment responds to. Retired Physicist

"the global Scientific community" RP, To hand over your judgement to a nameless, faceless, imaginary group, is something a dumb teenager would do. Or the mental equivalent of one. Andrew asauber

Thinking that the global Scientific community is lying to you for nefarious purposes is simply conspiracy thinking. And indicates someone has had very little exposure to real living breathing scientists. Retired Physicist

EG, you already disqualified yourself, your talking point games are of zero weight. Others, kindly scroll up to the clipped article at 163 above. KF kairosfocus

JVL, really. The issue is obvious from decision theory: failure to provide an advantage over the de facto baseline. It is because of cumulative evidence of such an advantage that I am saying we need to take it seriously. Please see OP as an example. And BTW, the Popperian falsification or falsifiability criterion is not a gold standard of empirical warrant. The issue is not whether there is a conceivable way to get a negative result, but whether there is good warrant for a conclusion. KF kairosfocus

KF

Ds, a medical doctor in a position of major trust lies to those looking to him on a matter of life and death, taking advantage of prestige, position, star power credibility,

And you accuse me of slander? Ed George

KF: If we agree that any scientific view can be falsified then what data would change your mind about HCQ? Not saying we have it, not saying I'm going to challenge you with it. Just asking: what would it take? JVL

F/N: A study I can respect, showing modest but significant claims on a so-called natural experiment: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048652v1 oopsie corrected

Widespread use of face masks in public may slow the spread of SARS CoV-2: an ecological study View ORCID ProfileChris Kenyon doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048652 This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice. AbstractInfo/HistoryMetrics Preview PDF Abstract Background The reasons for the large differences between countries in the sizes of their SARS CoV2 epidemics is unknown. Individual level studies have found that the use of face masks was protective for the acquisition and transmission of a range of respiratory viruses including SARS CoV1. We hypothesized that population level usage of face masks may be negatively associated SARS CoV2 spread. Methods At a country level, linear regression was used to assess the association between COVID19 diagnoses per inhabitant and the national promotion of face masks in public (coded as a binary variable), controlling for the age of the COVID19 epidemic and testing intensity. Results Eight of the 49 countries with available data advocated wearing face masks in public: China, Czechia, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia. In multivariate analysis face mask use was negatively associated with number of COVID19 cases/inhabitant (coef. -326, 95% CI -601- -51, P=0.021). Testing intensity was positively associated with COVID-19 cases (coef. 0.07, 95% CI 0.05-0.08, P<0.001). Conclusion Whilst these results are susceptible to residual confounding, they do provide ecological level support to the individual level studies that found face mask usage to reduce the transmission and acquisition of respiratory viral infections.

KF kairosfocus

Sev, at this point, CDC = Pravda of old. KF kairosfocus

DS, the medical, communicable disease and big pharma establishment just established their true credibility in the face of a deadly, fast moving pandemic in regards to yet another low cost, credibly significantly effective remedy: ZERO. For cause, absent corroboration or clear admission against interest, there is no reason to take their declarations more seriously than those of say the old Pravda etc. And yes, that includes claims regarding studies. KF kairosfocus

Dilbert explains what is happening. https://bit.ly/37Clj37 For a scary interview with a nurse who has risked her ability to be employed, see https://bit.ly/37RGy1b Skip at first t0 38 minutes in to see her contrast with what has worked in Florida. Then see the whole thing for what they did at a hospital in New York City. This is scary. jerry

FYI - Fauci said US government held off promoting face masks because it knew shortages were so bad that even doctors couldn't get enough Heartlander

Game over, period.

😨 Whoa ... daveS

Ds, a medical doctor in a position of major trust lies to those looking to him on a matter of life and death, taking advantage of prestige, position, star power credibility, stage and other factors. Many others by silence sustain the lie. Do no harm fail, as reasonable and rapid response measures are credibly feasible. Credibility self kill, regardless of motives, there is no need to go further with essentially any announcement, policy statement or truth claim by such a figure. Speculations or claims as to motive are from equally suspect sources, so credibility is also zero. All of this then ties to the gold standard fallacy and disregard of evidence that does not suit whatever advantage is being sought. The ethics-epistemology issue bites home. Going forward only multiply corroborated and/or declarations patently not in interest have any weight from such a source. Game over, period. KF PS: Business as usual generally reflects balance of power and factions in a situation. In turn such reflects ideological/worldviews influences, associated perceived interests and translate into an agenda of action. Principal-agent issues tie in. Agendas, interests and ideologies are not ill-founded conspiracist speculation. kairosfocus

KF talks a lot about “agendas”, so one might expect him to spell out a plausible motive here.

The first one will be political. The second one will be economic. The third one will be arrogance and the prevention of exposure as ignorant. My guess is that 1) is the biggest but worldwide it appears that 2) is driving the bad reporting. Also there is a report on deaths in Florida and Duval county, Jacksonville, which has about a million people is about 16% of the national rate. Over half the deaths in Florida are from the Miami/Ft Lauderdale area. And I believe most are in nursing homes. jerry

asauber, KF talks a lot about "agendas", so one might expect him to spell out a plausible motive here. daveS

"Do you know what the authorities’ motives for “lying” are?" DaveS, What difference does it make what the motivation is? People lie. It's what people do. Especially unaccountable people ruling from bureaucracies. I doubt you really require a psychological diagnosis to evaluate whether or not someone has lied. You are just obfuscating. Whoa, what a surprise. Andrew asauber

KF, Do you know what the authorities' motives for "lying" are? daveS

Folks, if the authorities lied over masks, they cannot be trusted. That said, looking at OWID, from April, US daily cases has been on an oscillatory plateau. The result is a more or less sustained linear growth rather than the classic bend over of a sigmoid. Something has locked in the point of inflexion. However, deaths are tapering off. KF kairosfocus

"I’m hearing stories" Retired Physicist, You certainly are. ;) Andrew asauber

From the CDC

Recommendation Regarding the Use of Cloth Face Coverings, Especially in Areas of Significant Community-Based Transmission

CDC continues to study the spread and effects of the novel coronavirus across the United States. We now know from recent studies that a significant portion of individuals with coronavirus lack symptoms (“asymptomatic”) and that even those who eventually develop symptoms (“pre-symptomatic”) can transmit the virus to others before showing symptoms. This means that the virus can spread between people interacting in close proximity—for example, speaking, coughing, or sneezing—even if those people are not exhibiting symptoms. In light of this new evidence, CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies) especially in areas of significant community-based transmission

Seversky

@DaveS They are not. I’m hearing stories of people whose elderly relative died from “the flu”, here in June. The state government fired a woman who ran the reporting website, and she says she was fired because she wouldn’t lie about the deaths. About a month ago the state just said screw it let’s re-open, and the new cases have zoomed way up from before. We just blew past 2000 new cases per day. Some restaurants and bars that re-opened in the past few weeks have now re-closed. There’s a meat packing plant about 20 minutes away from me right now that just closed down because they got a ton of new cases. Retired Physicist

The record number of new cases is going to drive the IFR lower than that of the flu. Vitamin D studies are very reassuring at this point. ET

Let's hope things are going great in Florida, and elsewhere. Record numbers of new cases is not very reassuring at this point. daveS

"Who to believe, the panic mongers or the actual numbers." Jerry, I don't believe in either one. False dilemna. I've yet to see any one talk about quality control or an audit. If one is not possible, my reaction is... "really?" Andrew asauber

now we’re getting the highest rate of new cases since ever.

There are differing reports from other places. From Alex Berenson who wrote the new book of what is happening with C19 statistics.

Very impressive press conference Tuesday from Florida @govrondesantis , where he explained in depth why no one should panic over the state’s increase in positive tests. Notably: the median age of cases has PLUNGED, from 65 to 37. Daily deaths have trended down for months... And outside nursing homes, almost no one in Florida is dying of #Covid anymore. (Statewide, more people over 90 than under 65 have died; no one under 18 has died.) Further, the state has far fewer #Covid patients in ICUs or on ventilators than two months ago... DeSantis’s tone and command of the facts was also impressive - he seems to know about every county and hospital in the state. He was reasonable about masks too, said the state recommends them inside but won’t require them, he thinks a law “would be applied unevenly.” nd he pointed out Florida never had more than 3.5% of hospital beds occupied with #Covid patients and still has many more beds available than before March. Translation: lockdowns aren’t coming back.

So this report shows things are going great in Florida. Who to believe, the panic mongers or the actual numbers. jerry

Quite a mystery indeed. Why would those hospitals leave all that money on the table, especially when their finances have gone into the sh****r? 🤔 daveS

And yet hospitals want doctors to report deaths via covid-19 so they get more $$$. Mystery of mysteries, indeed. ET

The sixth graph on this page shows that all over the place pneumonia deaths are abnormally high. Mystery of mysteries. https://www.azcentral.com/in-depth/news/local/arizona-health/2020/03/20/arizona-coronavirus-map-county-county-look-covid-19-cases/2879808001/ Retired Physicist

And yet hospitals want doctors to report deaths via covid-19 so they get more $$$. ET

Ed @ 159: some states are writing the deaths off as Pneumonia. Right now Arizona is, mysteriously, having 50% more Pneumonia deaths than normal. Retired Physicist

F/N: Given, do no harm, I cannot endorse the laudatory tone in the clip following, which is now a reason for me to conclude that something is fundamentally ethically and epistemologically broken in the US and much of the international CV19 pandemic response: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/dr-fauci-made-the-coronavirus-pandemic-worse-by-lying-about-masks/ar-BB15zyW3

Dr. Fauci Made the Coronavirus Pandemic Worse by Lying About Masks Matt Novak 1 day ago Every state's most beautiful town Vera Lynn, ‘We’ll Meet Again’ singer, dies at 103 Gizmodo logo Dr. Fauci Made the Coronavirus Pandemic Worse by Lying About Masks Dr. Anthony Fauci has been hailed as a hero during the coronavirus pandemic, delivering thoughtful health advice [--> yes, but this is an intro to an issue of harmful lying] while most members of the Trump regime have spread misinformation about covid-19. [--> translation, did not adhere to the partyline of the establishment, multiplied by hostility demanding contribution to the daily two minute hate] But there’s one area where Fauci let America down [--> attempt to contain blame], hindering the public health response and giving the U.S. both the highest coronavirus case count and the worst recorded death toll in the world. [--> this ignores China's obvious deceit] Simply put, Fauci lied about whether masks were helpful in slowing the spread of the virus. Fauci was asked yesterday by financial news outlet The Street why the U.S. government didn’t promote masks early on during the pandemic. Fauci, who sits on the Trump regime’s zombie-like coronavirus task force,[--> loaded language implying discount the voice of this article, only take damaging admission against interest seriously] hinted that he knew masks worked, he just wanted any available masks to be saved for health care workers. “Well, the reason for that is that we were concerned the public health community, and many people were saying this, were concerned that it was at a time when personal protective equipment, including the N-95 masks and the surgical masks, were in very short supply,” Fauci said. “And we wanted to make sure that the people, namely the health care workers, who were brave enough to put themselves in a harm way, to take care of people who you know were infected with the coronavirus and the danger of them getting infected.” [--> damaging admission] Fauci didn’t just fail to promote masks early on, he actively discouraged the use of masks, saying they didn’t work. Americans are now paying the price because too many people think masks are useless to combat the coronavirus. In reality, masks have been shown to help prevent the spread of covid-19, as the CDC now admits. [--> First, do no harm] All we need to do is look at the things that Fauci was saying back in February—a time before most Americans were taking the threat of covid-19 seriously and people like Donald Trump were assuming it was just a problem for the Chinese government. [--> false, the policy responses began in JANUARY] “There is no reason for anyone right now in the United States, with regard to coronavirus, to wear a mask,” Fauci told Spectrum News DC on February 14. It was something that Fauci would say repeatedly whenever he gave interviews in February, as the pandemic spread to countries like Germany, Italy, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. And Fauci may not have known it yet, but coronavirus was also spreading quickly in the U.S. By the end of February, over 20 countries had identified the coronavirus within their borders. Despite being remembered as level-headed during the early days of the crisis in the U.S., Fauci was incredibly slow to publicly recognize the threat from coronavirus. On February 17, he recalled stories of people asking whether it was safe to travel, ridiculing the idea that it might not be wise to get on a plane. But it was clear to anyone paying attention to news media outside of the U.S. that the coronavirus would soon be an international problem. [--> further admissions that should have led to a very different voice for the article and a very different evaluation of Dr F et al, each spokesperson bears individual responsibility] First, a quick lesson in recent history: Human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus was confirmed on January 21, [--> but China misled the world down to mid Feb] Chinese leader Xi Jinping said publicly that the health crisis from coronavirus “must be taken seriously,” on January 21, over 20 million people in China were put into lockdown on January 23, Disneyland locations in Hong Kong and Shanghai both closed in the last week of January, and countries like Australia were already setting up quarantine for some travelers in the first week of February. High school teachers returning to Australia from China were even giving classes by Zoom in early February, as Gizmodo reported at the time. . . .

At this point, I cannot have confidence in such officials and in the processes, views and claims they promote. Specifically, including on drugs testing and approvals, especially given other evidence and issues on the table i/l/o decision theory. If they lied about masks that could so easily have been surged rapidly, with serious consequences, they will lie about anything else they see to be advantageous. It's over. KF kairosfocus

Sweden didn't lock down anything and were predicted to have 10,000 deaths by May 1st and 1,000,000 by June 1st. They are currently just over 5000 deaths with the highest daily number on April 21. Instead of giving in to the panic, they decided to go for heard immunity, which has worked. States that locked down, as well as entire countries, have done everything people are not supposed to do with coronaviruses. By not being around other people, constantly using hand sanitizer and the constant washing of hands, they have weakened their own immune systems. Unlike macro-evolution, the immune system is real science and we know how it works. BobRyan

RP, would you take two five shot revolvers in a box, one with one round, the other unloaded, shuffle then pick one, spin the cylinder, put to temple and pull the trigger? KF kairosfocus

Ahhh- Acartia Eddie, insignificant troll- wants to blame Trump for something it thinks Trump did or didn't do. How small-minded are you, Acartia Ed? The IFR keeps dropping. Blood concentration of vitamin D looks like a huge mitigating factor to how serious the infection will be. And people in the USA understand that life comes with risks. ET

RP, I just don’t see how the US administration can see the lack of progress in reducing daily new cases as anything but a huge red flag. Especially considering that most other countries appear to be successful in this. A couple months ago Barry promised to make a public apology if, by January 2021, COVID-19 had resulted in the death of 200,000 Americans. I think most of us at that time thought that was a safe bet on his part. I don’t think even Barry thinks it was a safe bet any more. Ed George

For my age group the deaths aren’t too serious, 9-10%, what I’m worrying about is the permanent decrease in lung function. Retired Physicist

Here in Jacksonville everything was really declining until about a month ago when the idiot governor decided to open everything back up, now we’re getting the highest rate of new cases since ever. Retired Physicist

Cases increase as testing increases. And the IFR is going down, every day. ET

But the good news is that there has been a decline in number of daily deaths that is comparable to other countries. Ed George

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, there is great interest in studying treatment and prevention approaches for the disease.

Then they should seriously consider the vitamin D angle. Blood concentration of at least 40ng/mL per person. Then build from there. The preventive foundation trial should start with vitamin D. ET

The US had different locals peaking at different times. So there wasn't any "the peak" to follow in the USA. ET

Here is a site with COVID-19 new cases plotted for each country. What really stands out is that the US rate of decline following the peak is lower than almost all other countries that have gotten past the initial peak. https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/ng-interactive/2020/may/20/coronavirus-cases-and-deaths-over-time-how-countries-compare-around-the-world Ed George

KF, is the Cleveland Clinic’s HCT trial ethical? rhampton7

For example: As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, there is great interest in studying treatment and prevention approaches for the disease. Cleveland Clinic is participating in a number of research projects related to COVID-19. As an international leader in biomedical research, Cleveland Clinic has formed a multidisciplinary clinical trials committee to evaluate therapies for mild to severe disease, with the goal of supporting trials that are scientifically sound and prioritizing those with the potential for significant impact on clinical care. The ORCHID Study is a blinded, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial of oral doses of hydroxychloroquine as compared to a matching placebo to treat patients hospitalized with COVID-19 illness. The multi-center study aims to determine if among adults hospitalized with COVID-19, administration of hydroxychloroquine will improve clinical outcomes at day 15. The study is being conducted by the PETAL network, which studies acute lung injury, of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). https://newsroom.clevelandclinic.org/2020/05/10/leading-the-way-in-innovative-research-for-covid-19-patients/ rhampton7

RH7- What they are saying is that everyone should be given everything we have, just to save as many lives as possible. Take data along the way. Then when it slows down, analyze the data, and run the appropriate tests to hopefully come up with a cure, prevention or treatment. ET

Placebos and/or existing drug alternatives are used in RCTs with the full knowledge of the volunteers who participate in the trials. This is has been done for many decades for all manner of lethal illnesses. You ought to know that. rhampton7

Note this RCT on a known antiviral that goes against all your objections: "Umifenovir is already being used in the treatment of influenza and also in clinical trials for Covid-19 in China and Russia. Clinical trials will be done on Covid-19 patients having mild to moderate symptoms at two government hospitals - King George's Medical University (KGMU) and Ram Manohar Lohia Institute of Medical Sciences (RMLIMS) - and a private hospital, ERA's Lucknow Medical College and Hospital," CDRI director Prof Tapas Kumar Kundu said. Stating that Umifenovir was considered for trial after screening of around 5,000 drug molecules, Prof Kundu said: “It is safe for humans as it is already in use for two decades for treatment of influenza in China and Russia. The drug can be indigenously manufactured in India hence we will not be dependent on any country. Moreover, it’s very economical as compared to other drugs being considered for Covid-19 treatment.” Prof Kundu said a series of lab tests were being conducted since March to find out effective drug molecules for Covid-19 treatment. “This drug has a good safety profile and prevents entry of the virus into human cells by priming the immune system,” he added. He said keeping in view the emergency situation, CDRI would go for a short-term clinical trial which would be about a month or so. “The next steps of the trial are being fast-tracked to ensure availability of the drug to Indian patients at the earliest. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/uttar-pradesh-cdri-to-start-clinical-trials-of-umifenovir-for-covid-treatment/articleshow/76435715.cms rhampton7

RH7,

Placebos tell us if the treatment is actually better than standard care.

Not uniquely, that is where decision theory is relevant. What is highly relevant is that placebos are deliberately mislabelled sugar pills or the like; sugar pills being the classic case. But a placebo can go all the way up to making a surgical incision without doing the actual particular surgical intervention. As was discussed here months ago. The placebo is a no-care control. Once there is a de facto treatment for an illness with a given statistical pattern of outcomes, we have a business as usual baseline. This extends to many things and we are here dealing with some of the logic of decision theory. The BAU option leads to the expected future and generally reflects balance of power across factions at relevant decision-making and influencing levels. But there are possible alternatives that are considered as on cumulative evidence, these have some credibility. On this, those willing to go with the alternative can be given it, profiling outcomes, and identifying a plausible alternative. Gap analysis between the two can then motivate a change strategy without resort to potentially harmful and certainly deceit-driven lack of treatment under colours and solemn ceremonies of doing medicine. Placebos are reasonable when no serious risk of harm obtains. That is precisely what is not so for patients with vulnerability factors facing a fast moving deadly pandemic. Similarly placebo control testing will normally take far longer than a global wave of such a plague, so if oh Placebo control tests are not properly done yet holds back otherwise credible treatments, that carries serious implications for much wider withholding of credible treatment on evidence we could have were we willing to fairly assess it on canons of inductive logic. These parallel what Dr Raoult, the Kennedy School paper and others have counselled. KF kairosfocus

Seriously

Yes, they were given nothing. Do you actually believe that giving them a sugar pill makes it different and then a RCT? The alternative treatment in a RCT has been done several million times and we have the results. Standard care is the same thing as taking a sugar pill. We already know this is useless. Adding a sugar pill to standard care will be useless too. We know the numbers. Unless you think there is some psychological effect with taking a pill and beating the virus. That truly would be one of the most amazing findings in medical history Actually nearly all were given acetaminophen. jerry

Low cost like dexamethasone? Wait, you believe hundreds of thousands have died of COVID-19 because they took placebos during an RCT? Seriously? rhampton7

Again RHampton demonstrates a lack of understanding of the issues. Placebos have been used since the beginning and hundreds of thousands have died. We all know that the great majority will not be hospitalized but still hundreds of thousands have died. If Remdesivir or dexamethasone have no harmful side effects see if they prevent hospitalization. However Remdesivir cost about thousand dollars a treatment and requires IV application. There are other treatments that are low cost. Try them all early on the high risk population. jerry

Placebos tell us if the treatment is actually better than standard care. You do know that COVID-19 doesn’t always progress to a lethal stage, and that sometimes the body can clear it by itself. The sugar pills demonstrate what the body can do and represent what any potential treatment must exceed. Those RCTs apply to Remdesivir and dexamethasone as well, or would you prescribe them carte Blanche as well? rhampton7

RH7, if a placebo control test is violating the do no harm principle it is wrongful, producing ethically tainted results. Perhaps you paid no attention when I pointed to the capital case: results from murderous Nazi medical experiments, in succeeding decades, saved far more lives than were murdered in the holocaust. The profession spent many years going over the same knowledge base on sounder investigations until it could retire the earlier results, precisely because of the taint. Let that be a lesson. KF PS You have not addressed either the results nor the ethical issues. kairosfocus

Yes, they do know. They also know the results of RCTs against COVID-19 Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine attack malaria by raising the pH level of parasite cells. Doing so gets in the way of important biochemical reactions that the parasite relies on to spread. https://www.discovermagazine.com/health/what-is-hydroxychloroquine-and-does-it-treat-covid-19 rhampton7

KF, I suppose it is your opinion that the hundreds of RCTs underway are altogether amoral or immoral, and not the product of a different, though still respectable, morality. So the French doctors have not only solved the medical treatment of COVID-19, but the ethical dilemmas as well? Very convenient. rhampton7

It's a shame we don't have any data on the patients' pH levels. It sucks when trials are run just for the sake of running them and no one really understands what the drug is supposed to be doing in order for it to be effective. ET

Doctor Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, from the WHO's health emergencies programme, told a virtual press conference in Geneva that the antimalarial drug was being withdrawn from its multi-country Solidarity Trial of potential treatments. "The internal evidence from the Solidarity/Discovery Trial, the external evidence from the Recovery Trial and the combined evidence from these large randomised trials, brought together, suggest that hydroxychloroquine -- when compared with the standard of care in the treatment of hospitalised COVID-19 patients -- does not result in the reduction of the mortality of those patients," she said. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/anti-malarial-drug-hcq-does-not-reduce-covid-19-mortality-rate-says-who-halts-trial-2248023 rhampton7

RHampton’s comment from Forbes is actually an endorsement of HCQ. It is mainly an ad hominem attack using irrelevant studies as support. That always evidence for the opposite. Does anyone believe this author would use relevant information if he had it. So RHampton endorses HCQ. jerry

RH7, First, I challenge you to engage the epistemological-ethical challenge posed by placebo -- sugar pill -- controlled studies in the face of a fast moving, deadly pandemic, noting the issues raised by Dr Raoult, the Kennedy School authors and even the undersigned. Second, I challenge you to address the implications of the chain of cases raised by Dr Raoult, per the OP, i/l/o also addressing the problem of selective hyperskepticism and linked gold standard fallacy regarding empirical evidence and inductive logic, further informed by the do no harm principle. Third, I challenge you to actually study just who and what Dr Raoult is, noting that nope he did not vault into public attention in March, he has long been an established and even renowned French Scientist with a career dealing with infectious diseases. KF kairosfocus

Dexamethasone reduces the death rate of those on ventilators by 35%. It reduces the death rate on those needing oxygen by 20%. Saving some is better than nothing but they should push vitamin D if they want to save more people. ET

Raising vitamin D blood concentrations above 40ng/mL seems to be highly recommended. It, alone, most likely would have saved thousands of people: Ilie PC, et al. “The role of vitamin D in the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 infection and mortality.” Aging Clin Exp Res. 2020;1:4. Grant WB, et al. “Evidence that vitamin D supplementation could reduce risk of influenza and COVID-19 infections and deaths.” Nutrients. 2020;12(4):E988. ET

RH7- You don't even understand how HCQ is supposed to work against the virus. The people that wrote the reports you cite don't seem to understand it, either. There is plenty of scientific evidence that zinc prevents viruses from replicating. There is plenty of evidence that HCQ also acts as an ionophore. But please remain willfully ignorant. The new drug only works for people in the worst stages of the virus. that is a plus but there are ways to keep it from getting that advanced. ET

Raoult vaulted into the public eye in March, when he published a very small study claiming that a combination of hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, and the antibiotic azithromycin could cure COVID-19. Claimed Raoult: “ We know how to cure the disease” (Didier Raoult, quoted in the NY Times) Actually, Raoult’s proclamations began earlier, on February 25, when he posted a video on YouTube called “Coronavirus, game over.” Not surprisingly, the world took notice. (Note that as the evidence for his so-called treatment evaporated, he re-titled the video “Coronavirus, towards a way out of the crisis.”) Raoult’s study was deeply flawed, and it has been taken apart by multiple scientists, so I won’t repeat all their points here. A good summary of many of the flaws was written by Elisabeth Bik, first on Twitter and then in a blog article, back in late March. Among other flaws, the study dropped 6 of the 26 patients who were given hydroxychloroquine without explaining why. One of those patients died. “My results always look amazing if I leave out the patients who died,” Bik commented. Raoult is not happy with Dr. Bik. He recently called her a “witch hunter” on Twitter. This apparently is not unusual for Raoult; the NY Times compares his psychology to that of Napoleon. I wonder what he’ll call me after this article appears. In addition to its serious flaws, the paper was published in a journal whose editor-in-chief, Jean-Marc Rolain, was also a co-author on the paper. Even worse is the fact that, as the journal itself notes, the paper was accepted just one day after being submitted. Clearly, this paper did not undergo careful peer review, and it reeks of extremely sloppy science. One final note about Didier Raoult: he has a truly unbelievable number of scientific publications, over 2,800 according to PubMed. From 2012-2019, he averaged 176 papers per year, or about one paper every two days. Speaking as a scientist, it simply isn’t possible that he made any real contribution to the vast majority of these papers. The NY Times explained that Raoult puts his name on every paper published by his institute, which employs hundreds of scientists. Again, speaking as a scientist, this is grossly unethical. No scientist should put his/her name on a paper unless they made a genuine scientific contribution to it. At many universities, Raoult’s behavior would be grounds for dismissal. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2020/05/18/what-do-trump-and-yale-medical-school-have-in-common-both-were-duped-about-a-covid-19-treatment/ rhampton7

KF

RH7, you still duck evidence on the table. KF

R7 has not been ducking anything. In fact, he has provided tons of evidence that you, for some strange bias, have ignored. HCQ has been shown in multiple studies to Not be effective, and not to be an effective prophylactic. You have hitched your wagon to one doctor who refuses to conduct proper controlled studies even though he has had the time and numbers to do so. Why haven’t you touted the use of dexamethasone, which has been shown to be very effective in preventing death in serious COVID-19 infections, as you have HCQ, which has a very questionable track record? Ed George

KF, I’m actually going with the science on this one and waiting for more RCT results to come in. To date, it looks doubtful that hydroxychloroquine works as a preventative treatment. It also appears to be useless after the disease has gotten to the lungs. The window in between is still being investigated, though we did learn that it is harmful to some percentage of people of African descent. We know all of this because of RCTs. What you have never addressed is why the French “miracle cure” only seems to work miracles in one French institution. Science should be repeatable regardless of location, culture, language, etc. rhampton7

RH7, you still duck evidence on the table. KF kairosfocus

Latin America's largest country has so far registered more than 888,000 coronavirus cases and nearly 44,000 deaths, second on both counts only to the United States. But while other countries have been through steep curves and are now focused on preparations for a possible second wave, Brazil can't even get past its first. What's happening here appears to be unique on a global level. Despite soaring numbers, officials never implemented measures largely successful elsewhere in the world. There has been no national lockdown. No national testing campaign. No agreed-upon plan. Insufficient health-care expansion. Instead, the hardest-hit cities are now deciding to open up, throwing open the doors to malls and churches, at a time when the country is routinely posting more than 30,000 new cases a day - five times more than Italy reported at the peak of its outbreak. Limited resources always meant that Brazil had far less room for error - less room for political disagreement in the face of an outbreak - than its more developed peers. But despite the stakes, the country never found unity. President Jair Bolsonaro, who continues to dismiss the disease and its victims, has urged a policy of doing nothing. He has attacked governors who advocated restrictive measures as corrupt liars, waded into crowds of supporters in defiance of his advisers' admonitions and threatened to host a large barbecue to spite public health recommendations. He never empowered health experts and scientists to lead a response. Instead, they were undermined and ignored, sidelined and pushed out. He fired his first health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, whose sober briefings had calmed anxious Brazilians, after they'd clashed over the need for social distancing. Then he pushed out his replacement, Nelson Teich, who failed to share his zeal for using chloroquine as a coronavirus treatment. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/brazil-bolsonaro-coronavirus-cases-deaths-reopening-second-wave/2020/06/15/3282d27e-ae4b-11ea-856d-5054296735e5_story.html rhampton7

Texas Governor Greg Abbott doubled down on comments made in an interview Monday with Lubbock's KLBK-TV, saying people under the age of 30 are somewhat responsible for the recent spike in COVID-19 cases and make up the majority of new positives. Abbott did not offer evidence to support the claim but pointed to news reports out of Lubbock, Bexar and Cameron counties as well as photos of bars that he said were clearly not following standards on occupancy and distancing. He upheld the TABC's recent move to begin enforcing those standards as a strategy to make such bars and restaurants comply, saying the commission would be issuing 30-day suspensions on liquor licenses if establishments violated standards, followed by a 60-day suspension for a second violation. https://www.chron.com/news/article/It-s-still-here-Gov-Abbott-warns-Texans-not-15344403.php rhampton7

The state of Florida has not distributed most of the 1 million doses of the drug hydroxychloroquine, often used as a drug of last resort to help patients with COVID-19, which were provided free from the Israeli drug maker Teva Pharmaceuticals. The drug arrived in Florida in two shipments in April in a deal that Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said was facilitated by U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, Politico reported. About 20,000 doses of the drug have been distributed to the hospitals, and the state is sitting on the 980,000 others, while patients with lupus, who rely on hydroxychloroquine to stave off organ damage, pain and disability, are having trouble finding the drug and in some cases are being forced to pay triple or to substitute the more expansive brand-name version, Plaquenil, the Fort Myers News-Press reported Saturday. https://www.jpost.com/international/florida-has-not-distributed-most-of-hydroxychloroquine-doses-from-israel-631622 rhampton7

A cheap and widely-used steroid called dexamethasone has become the first drug shown to be able to save lives among Covid-19 patients in what scientists said is a “major breakthrough” in the coronavirus pandemic. Trial results announced on Tuesday showed dexamethasone, which is used to reduce inflammation in other diseases such as arthritis, reduced death rates by around a third among the most severely ill of Covid-19 patients admitted to hospital. Health Secretary Matt Hancock hailed it as “the world’s first successful clinical trial for a treatment for Covid-19”. Martin Landray, an Oxford University professor co-leading the trial, known as the RECOVERY trial said, “It’s going to be very hard for any drug really to replace this, given that for less than 50 pounds ($63), you can treat eight patients and save a life,” https://www.pharmacy.biz/steroid-drug-hailed-as-breakthrough-in-covid-19-as-trial-shows-it-saves-lives/ rhampton7

Mayo Clinic COVID-19 Research Task Force chair Dr. Andrew Badley told Fox Business on Tuesday that he supports the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s decision to revoke the emergency use authorization for malaria drug hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for the coronavirus. "The process by which hydroxychloroquine was evaluated was appropriate and thorough, he said, adding that “there’s been a large number of studies now… [and] it appears to have no effect in controlled clinical trials.” When asked about the side effects for those who are taking hydroxychloroquine, Badley said they “can be serious and/or life-threatening … but they tend to manifest relatively early, and so if you have not had that already, you are unlikely to." https://www.newsmax.com/us/dr-andrew-badley-hydroxychloroquine-covid-19-treatment/2020/06/16/id/972441/ rhampton7

RP, Mr Trump has nothing to do with the matter of warrant for inductive evidence and linked ethical considerations tied to the do no harm principle. I challenge you to address the three papers as excerpted and linked in the OP. KF kairosfocus

LoL! @ Retired Physicist!!!! We were discussing HCQ before Trump said anything about it. The drug that British researchers found to be effective can only be used on severe cases- once it gets into your lungs and prevents you from breathing properly. That is a good thing, definitely. But finding something that goes to work to prevent that cycle is better ET

UD Commenter: "Your position X is erroneous" UD Troll: "You don't know my position." Narrarator: "Dog suddenly is not barking again as he splashes in the mud." Andrew asauber

Trump touted Hydrochloroquine and so some people can’t admit that it was wrong.

Both MedCram and Medmastery provided YouTube videos on the science behind the usefulness of HCQ before Trump made his statement. This was posted before and is not about Raoult or Zelenko. It is from a Brazilian doctor who bills himself as publishing on virology and evolutionary biology. It is a list of 50 relevant references to HCQ or CQ https://bit.ly/2ZfQAGX One reference is from 1983.

Shibata M, Aoki H, Tsurumi T, et al. Mechanism of uncoating of influenza B virus in MDCK cells: action of chloroquine. J Gen Virol 1983; 64: 1149–56.

They had information almost 40 years ago on the effect of CQ on killing viruses or at least some viruses. jerry

Clearly here just to muddy the waters.

No, just the opposite. My experience with people who criticize and do not provide valid counter information or only nitpick is that they reinforce the argument they are criticizing. They are examples of the famous "dog barking in the night." What barking? There was no barking. That is the point I am making. From "Silver Blaze" the actual wording:

Gregory:: Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time. Gregory: The dog did nothing in the night-time. Holmes: That was the curious incident.

This site is full of a lot of dogs that never bark. They are extremely useful because they validate what they are criticizing. jerry

@Seversky I think it’s because Trump touted Hydrochloroquine and so some people can’t admit that it was wrong. There is a drug that some British researchers just said is showing a positive effect, but I can’t remember the name of it at the moment and I’ve got other things going on. Dex something? Retired Physicist

seversky is off the mark, again. The medcram videos are not about those 2 doctors. They are not from those 2 doctors. Once again reality refutes seversky ET

the impression you get from reading comments here is that if it’s not about hydrochloroquine (and zinc) and coming from Dr Raoult and Dr Zelensky then there’s no interest.

That is utter nonsense. By the way, I have no idea who Dr. Zelensky is. The president of Ukraine is named Zelensky. Is that who you mean? I don't think he is a doctor. jerry

Unfortunately, the impression you get from reading comments here is that if it's not about hydrochloroquine (and zinc) and coming from Dr Raoult and Dr Zelensky then there's no interest. Seversky

here they could learn powerful science about zinc etc

You have been asked to provide information on zinc that makes it irrelevant. You. claimed it exists. As far as Fauci and WHO, they do not have a great track record on C19. I would not hold them up pillars of correct information. We do not know what is driving their proclamations. We are in a period of great uncertainty and my experience is medical people while very intelligent in general do not like uncertainty when they have to act and speak. jerry

Retired physicist is just another wanker. Clearly here just to muddy the waters. ET

Everybody knows you get the best science from YouTube videos.

There are two professional medical sites aimed at doctors (MedCram and Medmastery) that use YouTube for disseminating information about C19. Are you saying they are invalid? From Medmastery website

Award-winning teaching method Medmastery is “highly commended” by the British Medical Association (BMA). The annual Medical Book Awards of the BMA recognizes outstanding contributions to medical literature. And for the second time around, Medmastery won the renowned Comenius Award from the Society for Pedagogy, Information and Media (GPI). The GPI awards outstanding digital educational products.

From MedCram YouTube site

Medical lectures explained CLEARLY at https://www.medcram.com MedCram is trusted by thousands of medical students, clinicians, and Universities with over 20 million video views and counting.

These have been frequently linked in the last 3 months on this site for providing good information on C19. jerry

It's the first one that they accept as being the first! ;) ET

Dexamethasone is first life-saving coronavirus drug

That is definitely good news but not the first. jerry

And if the YouTube video is wrong then there shouldn't be any issue with RP demonstrating such a thing. But we know RP will never even attempt to do so. Very telling, that ET

RP, MedCram is serious and there is indeed reason to see Zn as an important ion. It really is not some random YT site. KF kairosfocus

I treat people how they deserve to be treated. You come off as an ass so you get treated as an ass. The YouTube video is referenced with the supporting science. Clearly you are proud of your willful ignorance, RP- as predicted, RP ignores then science. How quaint... ET

Everybody knows you get the best science from YouTube videos. Retired Physicist

ET June 16, 2020 at 6:48 am Compared to you, RP, I am a scientific and medical genius. You are just a cowardly loser and equivocator. Good luck with that.

And you’re obviously such a good person, and kind, too! I should aspire to be like you. Retired Physicist

Medical professionals can learn about zinc by reading peer-reviewed medical journals: Zinc and viruses There are even medcram videos explaining how it works and providing the science behind it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&t=621s RP will ignore the science ET

"Dexamethasone is first life-saving coronavirus drug" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281 JVL

Compared to you, RP, I am a scientific and medical genius. You are just a cowardly loser and equivocator. Good luck with that. ET

EG if only Fauci and the WHO etc would read some anonymous comments here they could learn powerful science about zinc etc. I have no idea why they would ignore leading medical scientists like ET. ;-) Retired Physicist

Acartia Eddie:

UD should be required reading for all medical researchers. How else will they learn about all this science?

They won't learn about science by reading about evolutionism, that's for sure. Blind watchmaker evolution has never contributed anything to any research, other than how not to go about it. And YOU still don't know jack about science and you have been reading UD for years. ET

Jerry, the rise of ideological censorship on social media by appeal to a nebulous polarised "community" -- new media lynch mob posing on "social justice" seems a more accurate summary -- speaks volumes on where the rise of culture-form marxism and linked so-called critical theory metanarratives about oppression by the targetted other points. The turnabout projection of often slanderous and misanthropic accusations that then were used to justify the most wicked persecutions, mass murders and aggressive blitzkrieg invasions speaks for itself, as an example and warning from history now beginning to pass from living memory. Astonishingly, we have already forgotten or suppressed lessons that were paid for in rivers of blood and tears. Freedom is on the line, and with it constitutional, democratic self-government. We are playing with fire we hardly begin to understand. KF kairosfocus

EG, et al, it is clear that you have been consistently unresponsive to evidence, reports, citations and links provided over the span of several months. In the end that is telling, especially for people who almost certainly have repeatedly seen physicians and have been exposed to symptom and sign based differential diagnosis many times. In the end, in the face of need to respond reasonably, that tells. It tells, not only on the immediate issue CV19, but on other current issues. Further, it tells us a lot on the dynamics behind unresponsiveness to key evidence regarding the design inference, such as the discovery of alphanumeric, algorithmic code in the heart of the living cell (a linguistic phenomenon!). It similarly tells, regarding obvious problems in responding to first duties of reason, as regards truth, right reason, prudence [as opposed to biased, selective hyperskepticism], sound conscience, neighbour, fairness, justice. Immediately, the response to Drs Raoult, Zelenko, Lozano and many others says something. More deeply, we here can see through a window into the breakdown of serious worldviews reflection i/l/o comparative difficulties. All of this points to rationality and responsibility deficits that are coming due for our civilisation. KF kairosfocus

RP

Evolutionary scientists have published research on the novel coronavirus. I wonder if Creation Scientists have done the same.

UD should be required reading for all medical researchers. How else will they learn about all this science? Ed George

The question still remains: if you say HCQ must be administered before the virus gets too deep a hold then by what criteria do you decide to administer it? Just say8ing before symptoms get too bad isn’t a clinical criteria. What symptoms are you talking about?

I suggest you read up on the virus. A good source is the Eastern Virginia Medical School It discusses symptoms and recommended treatments at various stages of the infection. https://bit.ly/2CbCKMl I also highly recommend the MedCram videos. There are over 80 now and he constantly updates based on recent findings. By the way Google just censored Zelenko's latest video on his medical crowd sourcing. It doesn't meet community standards. I downloaded it knowing this might happen. jerry

Lynch's Irish Pub in Jacksonville Beach closed Saturday for professional cleaning after a social media post claimed that a number of customers had tested positive for the virus. Erika Crisp, a customer who attended the bar on June 6, has since tested positive for the virus and said that she visited the bar with a group of 15 people for a birthday party. Crisp said that ten people in the group have tested positive for the virus. Crisp, who works in the healthcare industry, said that she started noticing symptoms after visiting Lynch's and said that she must have gotten it from the bar as otherwise, it would be too coincidental that so many partygoers had tested positive. "I feel like an idiot. I know that I’ve been so cautious up until now, and with Florida opening back up it’s kind of that whole out of sight out of mind," she told News4Ajax. https://www.irishcentral.com/news/major-covid-outbreak-florida-irish-pub-reopening rhampton7

Your “stitch-in-time” analogy. Add to this the fact that administering it before infection to high risk people has zero prophylactic ability and you have a treatment that is of minimal value, if it has any value at all.

This is the third time you have brought this up and it is still nonsense the third time. There are about a million doctors and another couple hundred thousand nurse practitioners and physician assistants in the US. They could easily see the entire country in about 2 weeks time if necessary but 70% will not be necessary to see and of the remaining most won't be symptomatic at the same time if at all. So each one would have to see about 30-40 people a week for a few weeks. Easily done. There are about 4 million nurses to help too. I know that most would not be called upon to see Covid patients but they could in a national emergency. So to assess all that are symptomatic would be tedious but not near impossible. You still apparently don't understand what is happening. jerry

RP:

Evolutionary scientists have published research on the novel coronavirus.

So what? It's a given that blind watchmaker evolution didn't help them in that research. They don't have any idea how blind and mindless processes could produce such a virus. RP is just another equivocator, clueless about what is being debated with respect to ID and evolutionism. ET

One of the great things about getting a science education

Well my undergraduate degree was in math and physics and I was in a PhD program in mathematics. While mathematics provides a degree of certainly science certainly does not. Physics is the closest and even it has issues. Biology and Medicine are far less certain since life is the most complicated thing in the universe we are aware of and the human body one of the most complicated examples of life if not the most complicated. I dropped out of the PhD program to go in the Navy and ended up with an MBA afterwards. One of the main things I learned in business was about people and when to recognize inconsistent patterns in how they acted. I was in a business that involved an aspect of biology, energy metabolism and could not find one person on the planet who has a coherent answer about how biological energy systems worked to produce certain types of movement. I got one inconsistent answer after the other till I was about to give up and then I saw someone in Belgium who seemed to have the answer. He did. I have watched Zelenko and either he is extremely honest or one of the greatest charlatans that has existed. He seems to be on to something. Maybe he exaggerates his findings but they have been scrutinized by several and he has a host of adherents from the medical community. What I see on the opposite side is a lot of posturing and inconsistent statements with perhaps the greatest fraud of all, the Lancet Study. How did such a fiasco happen? Why does the medical community misrepresent the data and the research? I find this the most interesting. What are the pressures on them to do so? Why are they hiding the truth whatever it might be? Nobody seems to care how many people die as long as certain narratives prevail. It's a little scary. jerry

COVID-19 has led to much more hospitalizations and deaths among those with reported underlying health conditions, according to a new report of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Monday. The report analyzed demographic characteristics, underlying health conditions, symptoms, and outcomes among 1,320,488 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases individually reported to CDC from Jan. 22 to May 30. According to the report, hospitalizations were six times higher and deaths 12 times higher among those with reported underlying conditions compared with those with none reported. Among COVID-19 cases, the most common underlying health conditions were cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and chronic lung disease, according to the CDC. http://www.ecns.cn/m/news/society/2020-06-16/detail-ifzxfksr7317354.shtml rhampton7

Evolutionary scientists have published research on the novel coronavirus. I wonder if Creation Scientists have done the same. Retired Physicist

That happens a lot with the proponents of evolutionism. However, they seem incapable of learning from it. It definitely hasn't made them any smarter. ET

One of the great things about getting a science education is that you will be confronted with the fact, sometime, that you were 100% certain of X, and X is wrong. It forces you to understand you have intellectual weaknesses, and just because you think something is true doesn’t make it so. I really wish everyone could have those experiences, because I think it would make a lot of people a lot smarter. Retired Physicist

KF

JVL, medical doctors routinely make relevant judgements. KF

True. But doctors don’t routinely see people with mild symptoms of flu or cold-like diseases. During a typical flu season, there aren’t enough doctors available to see everyone who is presenting with a fever and cough. And based on the evidence, if HCQ has a positive effect, it must be administered at the very early stage of the infection. Your “stitch-in-time” analogy. Add to this the fact that administering it before infection to high risk people has zero prophylactic ability and you have a treatment that is of minimal value, if it has any value at all. Ed George

JVL, medical doctors routinely make relevant judgements. KF kairosfocus

Jerry: Never said that and never implied that. I just repeat Zelenko’s assessment which seems the most valid I have seen so far. If the person has the virus from a test, then only treat them is they are high risk. These are people who are over 60 and those under 60 who have a comorbidity. Or who look very sick. The last is an assessment by the doctor. Most will not have to be treated as they most likely will overcome it in a short time. However, if symptoms get worse come back for further evaluation. If symptoms get worse wouldn't that patient then be beyond the window you advocate? In other words: can you be really specific regarding when you would proscribe HCQ and when you wouldn't? Remembering that your view is that treatment must begin before the virus gets too big a hold. It does change in the sense that it multiplies in geometric proportions and first kills the original host cells by using all its resources and spreads and kills even more cells. It also prevents certain equilibrium functions from taking place as it interferes with the enzyme ACE2 which. then affects several other processes from happening. I am far from the one to explain this as I am not a medical person. Yes but there is a critical point which you need to provide observational criteria. This all may be too late if the virus is wide spread in the body and has caused other damage to things like the blood cell lining. Which is why using HCQ at later stages is not seen as appropriate. The so called viral load is to big and preventing the virus from getting to other cells may be too late. Though one study did show HCQ and zinc at late stages reducing the number who died and seriousness of the effects. Zinc should alway work as it kills the virus in the cell. How can you tell when someone is past that critical phase? The best place to go to see a description of what the virus does in later stages is MedCram. He now has over 80 lectures on it. Some of the explanation get very complicated and require some knowledge of biochemistry. He is actually learning as he goes as his explanations often reflect just published information. The question still remains: if you say HCQ must be administered before the virus gets too deep a hold then by what criteria do you decide to administer it? Just say8ing before symptoms get too bad isn't a clinical criteria. What symptoms are you talking about? JVL

If the researchers do not understand how HCQ is supposed to work, then they are missing the most important data when reporting its alleged ineffectiveness. And if they are missing that data, their studies aren't helpful. The point being that instead of just reporting that HCQ is ineffective, they could actually tell us why. That is how scientific adjustments are made. ET

Just to be clear: are you saying that anyone who shows any kind of symptoms should be treated with HCQ just in case?

Never said that and never implied that. I just repeat Zelenko's assessment which seems the most valid I have seen so far. If the person has the virus from a test, then only treat them is they are high risk. These are people who are over 60 and those under 60 who have a comorbidity. Or who look very sick. The last is an assessment by the doctor. Most will not have to be treated as they most likely will overcome it in a short time. However, if symptoms get worse come back for further evaluation. But do it as quickly as possible. You obviously have not watched any of the Zelenko videos or else you would know this. The vast majority will not need a treatment or the need to be tested. But probably should self isolate for a time period and report any exacerbation of symptoms.

Also, since the virus does not substantially change during a particular infection what is it, precisely, that you think HCQ is doing during the early stages of an infection that it cannot do during later stages?

It does change in the sense that it multiplies in geometric proportions and first kills the original host cells by using all its resources and spreads and kills even more cells. It also prevents certain equilibrium functions from taking place as it interferes with the enzyme ACE2 which. then affects several other processes from happening. I am far from the one to explain this as I am not a medical person. The purpose of HCQ is to prevent the virus from entering the cell and causing this cell damage. If it is already in the cell then to prevent it from spreading it to other cells. Hopefully the immune system will then defeat the virus. From what I have read zinc is the most important treatment but others could be better if found. The relevance of zinc is that zinc is thought to prevent the virus from replicating. And HCQ is used to get the zinc into the cell. Thus, HCQ may have multiple functions. Azithromycin while an anti biotic also may have some anti viral properties. If it does I have not seen how it does, just that it seems to help. This all may be too late if the virus is wide spread in the body and has caused other damage to things like the blood cell lining. Which is why using HCQ at later stages is not seen as appropriate. The so called viral load is to big and preventing the virus from getting to other cells may be too late. Though one study did show HCQ and zinc at late stages reducing the number who died and seriousness of the effects. Zinc should alway work as it kills the virus in the cell. Remdesivir is also though to affect the virus from replicating. There are several other treatments that show promise. Most to slow the virus down till the immune system can defeat it. The best place to go to see a description of what the virus does in later stages is MedCram. He now has over 80 lectures on it. Some of the explanation get very complicated and require some knowledge of biochemistry. He is actually learning as he goes as his explanations often reflect just published information. I am sure that others here may have a better understanding of what is happening. May main issue is the lack of honesty with those opposing the use of HCQ reflexively and especially with the opposition to zinc and HCQ. There seems a big set of non sequiturs in the comments. There also seems to be a host of possible ways to build the immune system and foods not to eat. The latest from MedCram is on the bad effects of high fructose foods on the ability of the body to fight the virus. Of course this is a long term preventive and not something that will change the person's system overnight. One last comment is that there seems to be a fixation on the number of cases when it may be necessary for most in every society to eventually get the virus. That is less important than treating those who get it and are at risk. That is where the deaths will mostly come from. jerry

Jerry: HCQ was always about trying to control the virus before it got established and has little to do with fighting the effects of the virus as it attacks various cells, mostly those with ACE2 receptors in various parts of the body. Just to be clear: are you saying that anyone who shows any kind of symptoms should be treated with HCQ just in case? Because otherwise you miss the treatment window? Also, since the virus does not substantially change during a particular infection what is it, precisely, that you think HCΠis doing during the early stages of an infection that it cannot do during later stages? JVL

Arizona's case load and death toll from COVID-19 continues to rise. Figures posted Sunday by the State Department of Health show nearly 1,300 newly confirmed cases and 3 additional deaths. The department reports nearly 1,500 people were hospitalized for coronavirus as of Saturday, the 13th straight day with at least 1,000 hospitalizations related to the virus. Department officials say the state's hospitals are 84% full, above the elective surgery cutoff level. https://www.knau.org/post/az-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-deaths-continue-rise rhampton7

R esearchers urged a moratorium on the prescription of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine to treat or prevent COVID-19, except in the context of a randomized clinical trial or for compassionate use (Am J Med 2020 Jun 2. [Epub ahead of print]). Charles H. Hennekens, MD, DrPH, the first Sir Richard Doll Professor and senior academic advisory to the Dean of the Charles E. Schmidt Florida Atlantic University Schmidt College of Medicine, in Boca Raton, and the senior author of the commentary, talked with Marie Rosenthal, MS, managing editor of Infectious Disease Special Edition about why this is important. Dr. Hennekens has had a distinguished career in cardiology and epidemiology. Among his achievements: He was the first John Snow Professor at Harvard Medical School, and the first Eugene Braunwald Professor of Medicine and first chief of preventive medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, in Boston. He reminds physicians that more information is needed before using this drug routinely on fragile patients. https://www.idse.net/Multimedia/Article/06-20/First-Do-No-Harm/58744 rhampton7

A common genetic marker in African Americans may predispose them to cardiac complications from COVID-19, and the use of therapies such as hydroxychloroquine may increase the risk - investigators urge caution in the journal Heart Rhythm. The investigators note that the proarrhythmic potential associated with p.Ser1103Tyr-SCN5A can be enhanced by drugs that can cause irregular heartbeat (QTc-prolonging medications), including some antiarrhythmic drugs but also, importantly, some antibiotics and antifungal medications. Direct and/or indirect myocardial injury or stress has emerged as a prominent, prognostic feature in COVID-19. Acute myocardial injury in patients with COVID-19 may be caused by a direct SARS-CoV-2 myocardial infection; the exaggerated immune response known as the cytokine storm; or hypoxia, dangerously low levels of oxygen and high levels of carbon dioxide in the blood. African American infants with the p.Ser1103Tyr-SCN5A variant are over-represented in sudden infant death syndrome, and mechanisms underlying hypoxia may be responsible. The profound hypoxia observed in many COVID-19 patients, raises reasonable concern that p.Ser1103Tyr-SCN5A could produce a similar, African-American susceptibility to ventricular arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death from the SARS-CoV-2 infection. https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-06/e-uou061520.php rhampton7

US researchers have found more evidence that hydroxychloroquine – with or without azithromycin – does not reduce the risk of ventilation or death in COVID-19 patients. The researchers, from the Columbia VA Health Care System, the University of South Carolina, and the University of Virginia School of Medicine, also found the drug combination was associated with around a third longer hospital stay. This analysis, published in the journal Med, is the first in the US to report data on hydroxychloroquine outcomes for COVID-19 from a nationwide integrated health system. It included data from 807 people hospitalised with COVID-19 at Veterans Affairs medical centres around the United States, of whom 395 did not receive hydroxychloroquine at any time during their hospitalisation. https://ajp.com.au/news/more-evidence-against-hydroxychloroquine/ rhampton7

Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who received hydroxychloroquine were just as likely to develop severe COVID-19 as those who were not treated with antimalarials, according to data from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance registry. To analyze antimalarials as prophylaxis for COVID-19, Konig and colleagues analyzed data from the COVID-19 Global Rheumatology Alliance physician-reported registry. Using the data available as of April 17, the researchers identified 80 patients with SLE and COVID-19. According to the researchers, treatment with antimalarials had no impact on whether patients with SLE required the maximum level of care related to COVID-19, including noninvasive and invasive ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The researchers also noted that, at the time of their analysis, 21.1% of the 573 total reported patients with rheumatic disease in the registry were treated with an antimalarial prior to COVID-19 onset. Despite this, 49.6% still required hospitalization. https://www.healio.com/news/rheumatology/20200612/hydroxychloroquine-fails-to-prevent-covid19-in-patients-with-lupus rhampton7

Rhampton. as predicted will not read relevant information. See above. We get to his daily round of irrelevant information. jerry

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration revoked its emergency authorization for hydroxychloroquine, a controversial malaria drug promoted by President Donald Trump for treating the coronavirus. The agency said in a letter the decision is based on new evidence that made it unreasonable to believe hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine "may be effective in diagnosing, treating or preventing" COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus. Citing reports of heart complications, the FDA said the drugs pose a greater risk to patients than any potential benefits. Shipments of the drugs obtained by the federal government from the National Stockpile will no longer be distributed to state and local health authorities https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/06/15/coronavirus-fda-pulls-emergency-use-hydroxychloroquine-covid/3191671001/ rhampton7

The FDA announcement apparently only affects use in hospitals from the national stockpile. They will not provide the HCQ for this. It does not affect the prescription by individual doctors for early usage. But we will see how this is misinterpreted by those who seem to have an adverse attitude towards HCQ especially in medical communities who should know better. The ignorance of those who are supposedly knowledgeable about medicine on this is amazing. It cannot be ignorance but something else. It was pointed out to me earlier today that medical authorities do not agree with my assessment. But it is not my assessment they are disagreeing with but other medical communities. What we are seeing is unique in the history of medicine. The medical communities are actually duking it out in public. jerry

Jerry, glad to see ivermectin producing confirmations to results from use by doctors. It seems to be able to push treatments further down the descending arm of the U-trajectory of CV19. The early use was with the cocktail. KF PS Zn in vivo seems able to interdict viral replication, especially if enabled to get into cells. KF kairosfocus

If you’re talking about zinc, Lowe discussed that several times. No effect.

Why don't you point out his evidence because everything we have seen here is that zinc has a positive effect, maybe a big one. I read one link to him put up here and he was all wrong on what he said. So maybe you could link to something he said that was correct. With zinc doubters here commenting, they have never once posted anything that contradicts its effectiveness. jerry

A French newspaper assesses the Recovery study in the UK. It correctly analyzes the situation as far a virus progression. Something that is missing from our medical elites including all those designing studies. Could they be that dense or are the studies done this way on purpose? And then are their assessment made to fit a pre-designed narrative for unknown reasons? They seem to be in lockstep. https://bit.ly/30LoJPy

The UK Therapeutic Approach to COVID-19 is Flawed, Yet It Can Still be Rectified This article focuses on what is precisely wrong with the UK therapeutic strategy for COVID-19, which delivers high fatalities, continued propagation of the virus and little hope for the population. The required policy change is encapsulated in this proposed slogan modification for the National Health Service: Get Tested ASAP - Receive Early Treatment - Save your Life, to replace the well-known official slogan “Stay Home - Protect the NHS - Save Lives.”... It is now known for months that there are several phases in the COVID-19 disease, and that it is during the early viral phase, which typically lasts 5 to 7 days after the infection, that therapies are most effective. Early therapies, which typically combine hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin and / or zinc, are also known to reduce the chances of lasting organ damages or other undesirable effects. Despite what can be heard in most media, and despite the widespread confusion, there are therapies for COVID-19, and they have been well researched and implemented successfully in a number of jurisdictions.

jerry

If you're talking about zinc, Lowe discussed that several times. No effect. Check out his blog In the Pipeline. Retired Physicist

I suggest all watch MedCram 83. It is about the issue of high fructose syrup in the susceptibility to the effects of the virus. There is the issue of 1) fighting the virus itself outside of one's immune system (that is trying to kill the virus before it does any harm) vs 2) fighting the effects of the virus after it gets established. These represent two different view points of what is happening. MedCram has spent several videos talking about how the virus eventually attacks the oxygen deliver system and blood clotting. These are later issues. with the virus as it attacks various cells and systems in the body. HCQ will have little use here. HCQ was always about trying to control the virus before it got established and has little to do with fighting the effects of the virus as it attacks various cells, mostly those with ACE2 receptors in various parts of the body. As an aside, Derek Lowe has been wrong about HCQ on just about everything. I am surprised anyone is paying attention to him. Any bets that RHampton will report that the FDA pulled the plug on HCQ today for unspecified reasons. jerry

Some other good news that may not make RHampton's play list

The FDA-approved drug ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro Although several clinical trials are now underway to test possible therapies, the worldwide response to the COVID-19 outbreak has been largely limited to monitoring/containment. We report here that Ivermectin, an FDA-approved anti-parasitic previously shown to have broad-spectrum anti-viral activity in vitro, is an inhibitor of the causative virus (SARS-CoV-2), with a single addition to Vero-hSLAM cells 2 h post infection with SARS-CoV-2 able to effect ~5000-fold reduction in viral RNA at 48 h. Ivermectin therefore warrants further investigation for possible benefits in humans.

https://bit.ly/3d54A9M Also from the doctors in Dade County https://bit.ly/2Y172Ka

ICON (Ivermectin in COvid Nineteen) study: Use of Ivermectin is Associated with Lower Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID19 Conclusions and Relevance: Ivermectin was associated with lower mortality during treatment of COVID-19, especially in patients who required higher inspired oxygen or ventilatory support. These findings should be further evaluated with randomized controlled trials.

This is on those hospitalized. Maybe it will work on those earlier in the infection progression. jerry

ET, yes. And a key part of that has been dismissiveness to Dr Raoult, head of IHU Infections, Marseilles; on his coverage, you would be shocked to learn how eminent he is in his own right. His results are being sidelined and undermined through widespread fallacious appeal to a gold standard fallacy that fails ethical and epistemological tests. This tells us volumes about medical and scientific research, drugs testing, big pharma, the media, the state of medicine and government in our day. Notice, particularly the lack of solid engagement with the substance of the three papers above. KF kairosfocus

I wonder if Derek Lowe understands how HCQ is alleged to work against covid-19. It has become readily apparent that most people, including medical professionals, do not. And THAT is the real shame. ET

Derek Lowe said he’s not even going to write any more about HCQ because the evidence is clear enough already. Focus should be on things with a chance of working. Looking back, I probably shouldn’t have smoked those three daily cigarettes for the last several decades. If I get this disease, and I live, I’ll probably have permanent lung damage. Retired Physicist

What evidence do you have that doctors are doing nothing, and that this is the preferred approach?

First, please provide any evidence that there is a treatment to attack or prevent the virus from progressing other than hoping that the immune system will do it. Why don't you provide what Norway is doing. The article on France above specifically specifies there is no treatment in France. The recommended treatment by the French government is acetaminophen or what in the US most know as Tylenol.

At the time, the only therapeutic approach recommended by the French government, which in turn relied on WHO advice, consisted in taking paracetamol. Like elsewhere, this was not working, as it was just addressing the symptoms, not the cause of the disease.

There is no treatment in the United States. The FDA has ruled out any means of controlling the virus once infected. For example, from Harvard medical https://bit.ly/2UMkU8X

Most people who become ill with COVID-19 will be able to recover at home. No specific treatments for COVID-19 exist right now. But some of the same things you do to feel better if you have the flu — getting enough rest, staying well hydrated, and taking medications to relieve fever and aches and pains — also help with COVID-19.

So that is the WHO, France and the US. Probably others if I looked more. My guess is that you do not read anything provided because you would not be making the statements you do if you had read only part of the provided links. They at best demonstrate a lack of knowledge on what is happening. jerry

BO'H, first that you imagine Dr Raoult is a dismissible "all" itself reflects the problem I am highlighting. That you ask it also indicates that you simply have not paid attention to the range of evidence on the table over the past few months. That severely degrades the credibility of your own remarks. KF PS: As just one point, I again put in this thread the Kennedy School of Government paper already repeatedly linked and just as repeatedly side stepped, as the ethical-epistemological issue is central:

I remind, from No 55 in the Dr Lozano thread. This is Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, with a professor and with a French doctoral graduate:

Observe:

Unleash the Data on COVID-19 By Maryaline Catillon and Richard Zeckhauser* Given the lethality of the COVID-19 pandemic, the urgent need is for actionable information directing care towards treatments offering higher probabilities of improving outcomes and preventing death. In normal times, randomized control trials (RCTs) would be the gold standard for determining whether innovative medical treatments are safe and effective. But with 1,500 Americans dying every day, these are hardly normal times. There is an urgent need for high quality studies based on real world experience, which has already accumulated for many thousands of patients. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s pandemic physician in chief, said that RCT results will not be available "for months". The disease will not wait. RCTs, which randomly assign patients to a treatment or a control group, are only ethically acceptable when the safety and performance of a treatment is unknown. When ample data exists, as now, that criterion is not met. Analyzing real world data on actual outcomes, when it exists in abundance, offers an alternative approach to learn almost immediately. Moreover, it avoids the ethical challenge of an RCT, given that available data could predict outcomes. Massive numbers of COVID-19 patients are currently being administered "unproven" drugs based on medical decisions made by doctors. Massive numbers are not receiving any such drugs. Thus, carefully designed case control studies could leverage differences between ongoing protocols at large hospital systems and detailed information from patients’ electronic medical records. That could determine whether widely employed hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, provides significant benefits, and at which stages to which patients, and could provide similar information on the risks it imposes. It could yield the same information about remdesivir, and about many other drug treatments currently in use. [--> sounds familiar? That's been a line of argument I have pointed to for weeks] For each patient, doctors strive to optimize treatment in the current, uncertain environment. These drug versus non-drug decisions constitute an ongoing large observational study, in which the allocation to treatment and control groups varies widely. The large numbers of patients treated eliminates concerns that random variation might lead to misleading results. Those large numbers also yield results by demographic, comorbidities, and stage of disease. Leveraging real world evidence is more acceptable ethically when extensive information is already available. As decision theorists who have studied the methodological quality of vast numbers of RCTs, we are enthusiasts for well-conducted RCTs. But delaying public health recommendations till RCTs are completed is not appropriate in the present circumstance. Imminent threats are enormous and widespread data is easily at hand. The outcomes of the thousands of individuals who have already received drug therapies on an ad hoc basis should inform practice now . . . . High quality case control studies based on thousands of cases, the silver standard we recommend, are immensely faster than RCTs. Recent articles in the world’s leading medical journals show that they consistently yield the same major findings. Experience with the recommendations of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV provides an instructive warning. Even though 20 years of observational studies demonstrated its enormous benefits, the World Health Organization waited until 2015 and the publication of the first set of RCT results (which reached the same conclusions) to make a "treat all" recommendation. Many lives were lost as the world waited for its recommendation. COVID-19 presents its own example. Through late March, medical authorities recommended the general public not employ masks to protect against it. In early April, that all switched: masks became strongly recommended. No RCT supported this reversal; little evidence was mounted. Yet officials applauded, the public widely complied, and the world was better off.

Well conducted includes ethical criteria. Of course. But such is obviously at a discount today. And notice the by now familiar context: decision theory.

If the onlooker is puzzled as to why the evidence pointing to the validity of the design inference is so routinely dismissed or ignored, let this case be an indicator as to what is happening on ever so many issues. Remember, this is in the face of a global pandemic that has not only done health damage but has led to policy responses that have done huge economic and social damage. kairosfocus

Earth to Bob O'H - it appears that the people railing against HCQ do NOT understand how it is supposed to work. If they did we would be reading about patients' pH values, before and during treatment. Your "medical community" doesn't appear to know what it is doing. ET

Jerry @ 57 -

There is plenty of evidence that no treatment, the preferred approach, leads to large numbers dying.

What evidence do you have that doctors are doing nothing, and that this is the preferred approach? Bob O'H

kf - Ah, so all you've got is Raoult. Low quality. Without a control group to compare to, these studies are worthless because you can't compare HCQ to what would have happened without HCQ. The only study with a control group had a tiny sample size, and HCQ actually preformed worse clinically. Raoult's attempt to match his patients to those in other studies (your EXH 2) compares patients in France from march 3rd with those in China in January 18th -March 12th. So, differences could be because care has improved as doctors have learned about the virus, or because IHE gives better care than the Chinese hospitals. So if that (plus an early Chinese trial) is all, the evidence isn't accumulating very rapidly. Bob O'H

As an example of cherry picking medical opinion, I will do so. AAPS Sues FDA (Association of American Physicians and Surgeons) https://bit.ly/37tx4c8

Following the lead of the Food and Drug Administration’s Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), which prohibits use of HCQ being stored in the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) outside of hospitals, most states have placed unprecedented restrictions on physicians’ ability to prescribe HCQ “off-label” for COVID-19 (tinyurl.com/y7oc65gn). In its lawsuit (http://aapsonline.org/hcqsuit), filed in June in federal court in the Western District of Michigan, AAPS asks the court to enjoin the enforcement of the restrictions in the Mar 28 EUA; to make available and distribute promptly, for the benefit of the public, HCQ from the SNS; and to enjoin FDA, the Biomedical Advance Research & Development Authority (BARDA), and HHS from impeding the distribution, sale, or purchase of HCQ by members of the public during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Above I pointed to another story on French physicians and India's medical community. I can cherry pick probably another 30-40 stories from various medical communities to suggest HCQ should be used early. But there are definitely other treatments that show good results too and should be used as opposed to no treatment, which is the current protocol. This is an old survey of doctors (two months ago) that said HCQ was the preferred drug of choice in the world. https://bit.ly/3e4AxQV Since that time we had nothing but bogus studies. So why should they change their opinion except by intimidation which is going on by some national organizations. So I guess I am not aware of any valid opinion from any medical community that says the use of HCQ on appropriate populations does not have a positive effect. I personally believe the best evidence to date is to use zinc with HCQ. The treatment cost is 47 cents a day. jerry

I guess you’re aware that the medical community disagrees with you.

What medical community? It’s always possible to find some people to express opinions. Why did they use bogus studies as evidence? If someone makes an argument for something and uses inappropriate evidence that usually implies the opposite. There is plenty of evidence that no treatment, the preferred approach, leads to large numbers dying. There are numerous reports that other treatments are leading to good results when used appropriately. There are individual doctors, there are several countries reporting good results for early usage. So we have bogus information vs other information reporting good results. jerry

BO'H: that you are unaware of it speaks volumes. For one, kindly scroll up to the OP. KF PS: Given what is emerging about the medical community, it seems the real issue is a need to revisit epistemology and ethics, with Dr Raoult's counsel a relevant point of reference. kairosfocus

kf - again, what cumulative evidence? Jerry - I guess you're aware that the medical community disagrees with you. But even if you're right, perhaps you should present us with the evidence of equivalent quality that is appropriate. Bob O'H

What evidence are you using for this? And how does that square with the evidence saying no effect (e.g. the VA study, the Recovery trial, the Chinese and French studies mentioned here, or the Minnesota study)?

These are all inappropriate studies or inappropriate surveys. Everyone of them. What does it say when bogus evidence is provided to make an argument? jerry

BO'H, high quality studies implies meeting the do no harm ethical yardstick. That is what is on the table, tied to the use of a gold standard fallacy to fallaciously disqualify cumulative empirical evidence. KF kairosfocus

kf @ 48 -

BO’H: guaranteed success is not in the gift of any empirical, inductive field of study.

True. and that's why you need to have high quality studies that minimise the chances of getting the wrong result.

What you have is credibility and accumulating evidence, which in this case then led to evidence of efficacy with people.

What evidence are you using for this? And how does that square with the evidence saying no effect (e.g. the VA study, the Recovery trial, the Chinese and French studies mentioned here, or the Minnesota study)? Bob O'H

While France has banned HCQ for early use for which it is appropriate, doctors in France resorted to Azithromycin and zinc to help treat patients with good results based on reports from individual doctors. Actually several thousand formed their own little network to get around French prohibitions. https://bit.ly/2XZSkD1 It is interesting to watch the stupidity or the greed of the world's top medical community and press relative to HCQ and Azithromycin. In the article linked to above, French doctors resort to Azithromycin after HCQ was banned but then HCQ was tested inappropriately and then falsely reported by the fake news as harmful in the fake study. And no one is embarrassed. Above India has outlawed Azithromycin. Maybe a thousand dollar drug is in the works and all the researchers will get nice side gigs from the drug companies. jerry

The Lancet study essentially made the medical world conclude that hydroxychloroquine was not only ineffective, but harmful in COVID-19 disease, with 23.8 percent of patients dying v.s 9.3 percent in the placebo arm. This caused the World Health Organization and drug companies to halt all trials of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine. The authors were from prestigious institutions. Among them: Dr. Amit Patel and Dr. Sapan Desai, a vascular surgeon who ran a little-known company called Surgisphere, based in Chicago. But the studies unraveled, not because of our medical leadership at these prestigious institutions, but because of simple questions asked by regular clinicians, when the data did not make any sense. I couldn’t make this up if I wanted to. They were all on TV, talking about the dangerous effects of hydroxychloroquine, with Desai even questioning the need for further randomized trials in the presence of such, ahem, robust data. More than likely chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine will not be the magic pills we are searching for. Those generally don’t exist and the preponderance of other data seem to indicate that. The WHO trial named “Solidarity” has resumed. We have shifted to other crises. Our heroes, as always, haven’t failed to disappoint. https://www.news-journalonline.com/opinion/20200614/how-medicine-was-hoodwinked-by-bogus-covid-19-studies--dr-dinesh-arab rhampton7

A new drug for preventing lung damage and blood clots in people with coronavirus (Covid-19) is set to be trialled in UK hospitals with support from researchers at our British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence at Imperial College London. In the trial, half of the patients will be given TRV027, and half the patients will be given placebo along with the usual care. The researchers will observe the patient condition and track the levels of important markers in the blood which indicate the severity of illness, in particular markers of abnormal clotting which they anticipate will be lower in the group receiving TRV027. If the findings are promising, the team aim to secure funding for a larger clinical trial to determine whether it made a meaningful difference to patient’s health. The researchers hope the study will answer many pressing questions about the link between severe Covid-19, blood pressure, and the ACE-2 pathway. https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2020/june/london-researchers-to-test-promising-coronavirus-treatment rhampton7

BO'H: guaranteed success is not in the gift of any empirical, inductive field of study. What you have is credibility and accumulating evidence, which in this case then led to evidence of efficacy with people. Evidence that is consistently being shunted aside through a gold standard fallacy. KF kairosfocus

The antidote to RHampton.

Indonesia Claims Five Drug Combinations Effectively Reduce Novel Coronavirus

https://bit.ly/3hpE4ex

Researchers from Airlangga University, Government’s Covid-19 Task Force, and State Intelligence Agency (BIN) have claimed to have found combinations of medicine that effectively reduce the number of Sars-Cov-2, the coronavirus that causees Covid-19 disease, in the human body... the first medicine combination comprises of Lopinavir, Ritonavir, and Azithromycin. The second combination includes of Lopinavir, Ritonavir, and Doxycycline. The third combination includes of Lopinavir, Ritonavir, and Clarithromycin. The fourth combination comprises of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin. Meanwhile, the fifth combination comprises of Hydroxychloroquine and Doxycycline

From India https://bit.ly/2MY1BFw

Health Ministry issues fresh clinical management protocol for COVID-19 patients... In the case of anti-malaria drug HCQ, it should be used as early in the disease course as possible to achieve any meaningful effects and should be avoided in patients with severe cases.

They however did not like Azithromycin jerry

For the moment, all scientifically admissible studies (conducted double-blind versus placebo) on hydroxychloroquine have concluded that it is ineffective, whether in patients hospitalized in serious condition (including the HYCOVID and RECOVERY studies) as well as prophylaxis in contact cases (two studies conducted on 800 patients in Minnesota and on 2000 patients in Barcelona gave negative results). Dr. Raoult and his supporters raised two objections: 1) the treatment he recommends must be taken as soon as the first symptoms appear, 2) the antibiotic azithromycin must be combined with hydroxychloroquine. There remains therefore a doubt as to the possible interest of associating hydroxychloroquine with azithromycin in the initial symptomatic phase and the fragmentation and poor coordination of competing clinical trials as well as the recent drop in the number of cases in Europe. make it difficult to complete the ongoing assessments. Nevertheless, a study piloted by the NIH is carried out in the USA (patient recruitment started in mid-May). This study plans to include 2000 patients suffering from mild to moderate symptoms but some of whom may suffer from various comorbidities (diabetes, obesity, age over 60) due to the structure of the American population. We should therefore soon know whether the mixed treatment recommended by Raoult offers significant benefits or not. (The follow-up being planned for a total duration of 23 weeks, the final publication of the results will only arrive in a few months, but if significant results were to appear in one direction or the other, they would be the subject of a very rapid pre-publication associated with stopping the placebo if the treatment works, or conversely stopping the treatment prematurely if the side effects prove to be deleterious without any other sufficient benefits being observed.) https://blogs.mediapart.fr/michel-delarche/blog/130620/levaluation-de-lhydroxychloroquine-et-dautres-medicaments rhampton7

A globally available vaccine is not likely to be ready until June 2021. That’s more than enough time for the French doctors to run several RCTs. rhampton7

China reported its highest daily total of new coronavirus cases in two months on Sunday and infections in South Korea rose, showing how the disease can come back as curbs on business and travel are lifted. Elsewhere, governments including Egypt, Ukraine and North Macedonia have reported their highest single-day totals of new infections since Friday. In the United States, case numbers are rising in some states as President Donald Trump pushes to reopen businesses despite warnings by public health experts. The world is seeing more than 100,000 newly confirmed cases every day, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. https://www.haaretz.com/science-and-health/china-south-korea-egypt-all-report-rise-in-virus-cases-as-curbs-ease-1.8919177 rhampton7

With the number of people hospitalized for the new coronavirus continuing to climb in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott said Friday that there’s “no real need to ratchet back the opening of businesses in the state.” One of the reasons, he said in an interview with KYTX television in Tyler, is “because we have so many hospital beds available to anybody who gets ill.” The state reported Friday that the number of people hospitalized in Texas who are confirmed to have the coronavirus has increased to a new peak of 2,166. That came after three days of record highs this week — reaching 2,153 hospitalized patients Wednesday — and a one-day dip Thursday to 2,008. On Saturday, the state broke another record and reported 2,242 hospitalized patients. I n the television interview, Abbott urged people to still take precautions. “There is this need, however, and that is, every single one of your viewers, they have the total ability themselves to make sure they do not get COVID-19,” he said. “It is their choice about whether or not they are gonna go out and congregate with others or go to a store, whatever it is they may want to do. It is incumbent upon every individual in Texas to make sure that they are doing all they can not to get or transmit COVID-19 as we do open up the economy. You have your own control of whether or not you will be getting this disease.” https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/with-coronavirus-cases-climbing-texas-gov-greg-abbott-says-no-real-need-to-scale-back-business-reopenings/285-88f6e421-d566-4698-82a3-ad0fed1e17ef rhampton7

While no new deaths were reported, Utah saw an increase of 332 positive COVID-19 cases Sunday, according to the Utah Department of Health and the state set a record for active hospitalizations at 137. Sunday ended a week in which the state saw the outbreak worsen as cases rose by 1,991 and 18 more people died. Overall, Utah has had 14,313 people contract the coronavirus, and of those, 5,922 are estimated to be battling the disease. That is the highest active case rate the state has seen, rising nearly 1,000 cases in the week. In all, the disease has killed 139 Utahns. Gov. Gary Herbert kept Salt Lake City at the “orange” risk level. But he moved San Juan County’s Bluff and Mexican Hat to “yellow,” and Kane County to “green.” He did say, however, that Utah as a whole won’t be going to “green," which is a removal of restrictions, any time soon. https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/06/14/coronavirus-utah-daily/ rhampton7

Coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise in North Carolina. On Sunday, the state reported 1,443 new cases of coronavirus out of the 15,440 new tests were conducted in the past 24-hours. Nearly 800 people are hospitalized with the coronavirus and the state's virus death toll has reached 1,164 people. But, Gov. Roy Cooper said he and his health advisers are still weighing whether or not to move North Carolina into the next stage of their three-part pandemic recovery plan. When he announced the move into Phase 2 of the plan last month, he said it would last at least five weeks, and that period would end June 26. https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/wake-county-tops-3-000-coronavirus-cases-lockdown-restrictions-ease-across-the-world/19144285/ rhampton7

kf @ 32 - I don't think this, from Raoult's team, is generally seen as correct:

When a particular therapeutic option is supported by scientifically demonstrated efficacy in vitro and or in animal model, and supported further by clinical case reports and/or pilot series in humans , it is ethically difficult to argue that the data still needs to be confirmed in an RCT before it can be made available to patients.

In vitro studies and animal studies don't guarantee that the treatment will be effective in humans and also won't guarantee that the dose is sufficient. Case studies tell you what happens to individuals, but don't give any reason to generalise (if you treat one person and they recover, that doesn't mean that the next person will recover. A lot of people who get COVID-19 will recover). Pilot series are, well, pilot series, so are with a small number of patients. Unless the cure is a miracle cure, it's difficult to get enough statistical power to conclude there is an effect. Oh, and you might want to look at the fatality rates in the different arms of Raoult's original "pilot study". Bob O'H

Effective treatment? OTC supplements, proper nutrition and a healthy lifestyle

Quercetin and zinc plus other things. https://bit.ly/2YA206n First heard of quercetin from ET on this site. jerry

Here's an eye opener. I assume it is accurate. https://bit.ly/37udEUl jerry

Effective treatment? OTC supplements, proper nutrition and a healthy lifestyle ET

Acartia Eddie:

Ethical issues that most medical professionals disagree with.

Or they just don't care about them. They took an oath- the Hippocratic oath. That oath is very different from your oath to be a hypocrite. ET

KF

EG, your say-so does not change the long known ethical issues on using placebos. KF

Ethical issues that most medical professionals disagree with. Ed George

EG, your say-so does not change the long known ethical issues on using placebos. KF kairosfocus

KF

BO’H, you skipped over two crucial issues, one epistemological, one ethical. Both come up in:

There is nothing unethical about RCTs. Participants are informed that they may receive a placebo. The canard about “intentionally mislabeled sugar pills” is a great big red herring. They are mislabeled so that neither the patient nor the doctor know who is getting what. And the time factor is also a big stinking red herring. Without RCTs, we wouldn’t have the success rate that we do with cancer and many other fast acting diseases. Raoult‘s refusal to conduct a proper RCT just means that we still won’t have a proved effective treatment if a second wave hits in the fall. An effective treatment that both Brazil and India could benefit from. Ed George

BO'H, you skipped over two crucial issues, one epistemological, one ethical. Both come up in:

When gold standard becomes unethical [--> in text subtitle] In emerging disease outbreaks, there is an urgent lack of treatments for the new pathogen. When a particular therapeutic option is supported by scientifically demonstrated efficacy in vitro and or in animal model, and supported further by clinical case reports and/or pilot series in humans [--> epistemological i/l/o cumulative inductive warrant], it is ethically difficult [--> ethics of knowledge i/l/o first, do no harm] to argue that the data still needs to be confirmed in an RCT before it can be made available to patients. Especially if it seems “obvious” that control (untreated) subjects [--> deliberately mislabelled sugar pills etc] will have poorer outcomes than those receiving treatment [--> do no harm]. As one study mocked, there would be few volunteers for the placebo group in an RCT on the parachute’s effectiveness in avoiding death by jumping out of an airplane, unless the jump had an average height of 0.6 m (3) [~ 2 ft]. When even imperfect scientific data show a particularly obvious effect, it is no longer ethical to perform an RCT since it forces patients to accept either not to be treated (in the control arm), or to be treated with a molecule known to be effective. [-- > so much for, but they signed up]

It is that persistent resort to demands for an ethically challenged gold standard tantamount to no treatment will be approved until the epidemic is over, joined to selective hyperskepticism regarding cumulative evidence that tells me that prudence has been supplanted by an anti-virtue, skepticism. When that is backed by bias, it leads to unresponsiveness to first duties of reason, to truth, to right reason, to prudence, to sound conscience, to neighbour [here, do no harm], to fairness and justice. Something is seriously wrong. KF PS: Cardinal virtues, wiki:

Four cardinal virtues were recognized by Plato and in the Bible, classical antiquity and in traditional Christian theology: Prudence (????????, phrón?sis; Latin: prudentia; also Wisdom, Sophia, sapientia), the ability to discern the appropriate course of action to be taken in a given situation at the appropriate time. Courage (???????, andreía; Latin: fortitudo): also termed fortitude, forbearance, strength, endurance, and the ability to confront fear, uncertainty, and intimidation Temperance (?????????, s?phrosýn?; Latin: temperantia): also known as restraint, the practice of self-control, abstention, discretion, and moderation tempering the appetition. S?phrosyn? can also be translated as sound-mindedness. Justice (??????????, dikaiosýn?; Latin: iustitia): also considered as fairness, the most extensive and most important virtue;[1] the Greek word also having the meaning righteousness These principles derive initially from Plato in Republic Book IV, 426–435 (and see Protagoras 330b, which also includes piety (hosiotes)). Cicero expanded on them, and Ambrose, Augustine of Hippo, and Thomas Aquinas[2] adapted them while expanding on the theological virtues. The term cardinal comes from the Latin cardo (hinge);[3] virtues are so called because they are regarded as the basic virtues required for a virtuous life. They also relate to the Quadrivium.[4]

kairosfocus

RHampton continues to link to fake news about HCQ. It is remarkable how consistent it is. But we now have names of major players in the fake news chain., Novartis and US National Institute of Health. We know the press is continuously pushing fake news. In a time before the internet this corruption would have taken years to expose. Now, unfortunately,it is measured in unnecessary lives lost because it is happening so quickly. jerry

kf @ 21 - I did read it. His arguments are: 1. RCTs take time 2. Conflicts of interest 3. Bias is everywhere Only the first is specifically relevant to a pandemic The second is true, but not so relevant in a pandemic, when governments are more likely to want to throw money at a potential treatment). The third is also true, but it's true everywhere, so isn't specific to a pandemic. Also, alternatives to RCTs are even worse in terms of bias. So, the only relevant objection is time. But, as I've pointed out, Raoult has seen enough patients to have already run a decent sized RCT. By not doing so, he's failed to check to see if his treatment works. Which means that if it does work, he's failed to show it in a way that is convincing to most of the medical community. Bob O'H

Folks, notice, after a considerable period, refusal to directly address what Dr Raoult has put on the table. That speaks. KF kairosfocus

The West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources (DHHR) has confirmed five COVID-19 outbreaks at churches in West Virginia, with the most recent outbreak occurring in Greenbrier County. At least 17 cases have been identified at a Greenbrier County church. Gov. Jim Justice immediately ordered the DHHR, West Virginia National Guard, and Greenbrier County Health Department to respond to this outbreak. The Greenbrier County Health Department is managing the outbreak with good cooperation from the church and contact investigation is underway. Gov. Justice has ordered the National Guard to immediately go to the site to begin decontamination, and they will be on site tomorrow. The church has closed for 14 days for environmental cleaning with support from the National Guard and the health department is providing guidance on prevention measures. “I want to strongly encourage all West Virginians, especially when in church settings, to follow the guidelines and use every other pew, maintain social distancing, and please wear masks,” Gov. Justice said. “A lot of the attendance at our churches are those that are elderly and at higher risk, so we are cautioning everyone to strictly follow our guidelines. As I have said many times, we will have stormy seas before we get a vaccine, so it is imperative that we strictly follow the guidelines or the seas will only get rougher.” https://www.mybuckhannon.com/dhhr-confirms-five-covid-19-outbreaks-at-w-va-churches-including-one-affecting-17-people-in-greenbrier-county/ rhampton7

There are more than 130 active or planned clinical trials testing the ability of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine to treat or prevent COVID-19. With negative results from two major trials, some scientists now wonder if the chloroquine craze is over. “RECOVERY is an excellent trial, and probably the best evidence we will have,” says Paul Glasziou, director of the Institute for Evidence-Based Healthcare at Bond University. “We need more trials on other treatments.” Some researchers say there is no definitive proof that hydroxychloroquine is ineffective, however. Novartis and the US National Institutes of Health are both pushing ahead with independent placebo-controlled trials of the drug in people hospitalized with COVID-19. Other groups say the Minnesota study is not the final word on prevention. They are continuing their own post-exposure studies to assess whether the drugcan help prevent infection in thousands of people recently exposed to the virus. Researchers are also proceeding with even larger pre-exposure studies this summer, in which tens of thousands of healthyhealth-care workers will be given chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine to see if the drugs can prevent infection. Results are expected by late summer or early fall. https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/drug-development/Hydroxychloroquine-trials-turmoil/98/i23 rhampton7

Early on in the pandemic, the drug hydroxychloroquine emerged as a potential treatment, following two studies that suggested it might be beneficial. As a result, many patients were given the drug, which is already approved for malaria and rheumatoid arthritis. But doctors soon found the drug was not useful in treating COVID-19, and subsequent research has shown it does not appear to help. Now, doctors in ICUs are turning to the drug remdesivir. It's not a cure, but it's the only treatment that's been shown in a clinical trial to have an effect on the illness so far. Some physicians are also finding success with other pharmaceutical approaches, though evidence remains anecdotal. Cassiere has given ventilated patients steroids to reduce inflammation in the lungs. "I was gun-shy up front about doing that, because I was concerned I could be doing more harm," Cassiere said, citing research from the 2003 SARS outbreak that suggested steroids cause coronaviruses to linger longer in patients. He found that combining the steroids with convalescent plasma, an antibody-rich blood product of recovered COVID-19 patients, appeared to cancel out that risk. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-icu-doctors-have-learned-about-covid-19-how-they-n1225801 rhampton7

India’s Union Health Ministry is likely to revise protocols for the use of azithromycin in combination with anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) for the treatment of patients with the severe form of novel coronavirus admitted in hospitals. T he combination was earlier recommended by the ICMR for mild, moderate and severe cases of Covid-19. However, as per the new protocol for treatment, use of azithromycin in combination with HCQ has been removed. However, HCQ will be continued to be administered for mild and moderate cases of coronavirus. "Mild Covid-19 cases may be given symptomatic treatment such as antipyretic (Paracetamol) for fever and pain, adequate nutrition and appropriate rehydration. Tab Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) may be considered for any of those having high-risk features for severe disease (such as age> 60; Hypertension, diabetes, chronic lung/kidney/ liver disease, Cerebrovascular disease and obesity) under strict medical supervision," the new guideline states. For moderate patients, the guideline states the first protocol is oxygenation. ECG has to be done before administering HCQ. Only after ECG assessment should HCQ be given. Remdesivir (under Emergency Use Authorization) may be considered in patients with moderate disease (those on oxygen) and for severe patients if steroids don't work. Tocilizumab (Off Label) may be considered in patients with moderate disease with progressively increasing oxygen requirements and in mechanically ventilated patients not improving despite the use of steroids," state the guidelines. “ Use of azithromycin with hydroxychloroquine should be avoided as both prolong the interval between two waves in ECG also known as QTc prolongation. It causes heart problems. One can substitute doxycycline or amoxycyclin+ clavulanic acid as they are not known to cause this heart-related toxicity," said a top ICMR official. https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/health-ministry-may-rollback-use-of-azithromycin-to-treat-covid-19-patients-1688457-2020-06-13 rhampton7

People die. It's what we seem to do best. There is even a Darwin award for those who do it in the most absurd manner. It appears the covid-19 virus can be beaten by proper nutrition and OTC supplements. That may not help everyone but I would bet it would have saved over half of the people who have perished due to cvd-19. ET

RP, no one suggests that CV19 deaths don't count. The issue is how we respond to scale and the context of global deaths and leading causes is material. As a result, there is a policy debate over whether a prolonged lockdown of the global economy was a right response, and whether such should still be indefinitely continued. Though the recent protests etc show that informally that has receded. KF kairosfocus

“These deaths over here don’t matter because there are more deaths over here” is not the powerful argument some people imagine it to be. When 9/11 happened we didn’t shrug and say “well heart disease kills more people”. Retired Physicist

BO'H: it is obvious you have not read even the clip of his "Assay" on precisely why he refused on ethical grounds to carry out an exercise with deliberately mislabelled sugar pills. You need to see it in the OP and respond to it. The reasons closely parallel things in the Kennedy School paper as has also been clipped many times and arguments raised here at UD. The gold standard fallacy is obviously deeply rooted in praxis but needs to be reassessed i/l/o ethical issues. KF kairosfocus

RP, I gather there is no generally accepted vaccination for any Corona Virus, a warning sign given tendency to rapid mutation of RNA viruses. (The cell does its editing, proof reading etc on DNA). The cancer family is relevant as cancers do tend to be lumped together as a major family of closely related non-communicable diseases. The key point is, there are a bit under 60 mn deaths post uterus per annum, and the actual dominant killers are NCD's, with top killers in the 10 - 20+% range. If CV19 hits a million, it would be in the 2% range, though being highly communicable is significant. A shocker is, there are comparably nearly as many imposed deaths of our living posterity in the womb as there are deaths post-birth. KF kairosfocus

EG, the flu with complications is an obvious yardstick. In "normal" years the Flu kills several dozen thousands in the US. The same issue of no broad spectrum antivirals and tendency to get complications with no reliable vaccination obtains (the Flu shot seems to be hit or miss). KF kairosfocus

EG, Dr Raoult heads a research institute based in a 3500 bed four hospital cluster and is a leading infectious diseases researcher. He has the resources to do what he did as a researcher, including 500 CAT scans and other high tech tests.

Or, to look at it another way, he had the resources to do an RCT, but chose not to. The first abstract you link to has a sample size of over 3700, which is large enough for a phase III trial. It would be single centre, which is not ideal, but better than nothing. Bob O'H

It's entirely possible that we don't need a vaccine for this virus. Did I read that recently there have been studies showing that vitamin D deficiency is common among those who have died from covid-19? ET

It’s entirely possible that we will never be able to create a vaccine for this virus. Did i read in Technology Review a few years ago that not including the various influenzae, there were only like 23 common vaccines? By the way, comparing it to cancer is misleading because cancer is a catchall category that includes dozens or hundreds of different diseases. Kaposi’s sarcoma and Acute Myeloid Leukemia share similarities but are different diseases with different causes and effects. In very many places in the US if you died at home you weren’t tested for coronavirus because why waste the expensive test on someone who can’t be treated? Brazil just announced that they’re going to cover up all Covid cases. Retired Physicist

Which means that you don’t have the luxury to do a full work up to see if the person is at a high risk.

Nonsense. There are over a million doctors, nurse practitioners and physician assistants in the US. They could very easily see everyone in the US at an early stage of C19. If necessary they could treat every individual in the US but most would not need it. This would be immensely more efficient than waiting for them to enter the hospital. This would save millions of lives and zillions of dollars. What's preventing this is mostly politics. On top of this there are nearly 4 million nurses who would be helping. jerry

What would the flu look like if we didn't have vaccinations for it? Again, Acartia Eddie proves he doesn't understand comparisons. ET

KF

EG, that is precisely the problem, cherry-picking and politicisation. KF

Nonsense. One of the major arguments against the COVID restrictions has been comparing it to the flu. The linked visual clearly shows that this is not just another flu. Ed George

EG, that is precisely the problem, cherry-picking and politicisation. KF PS: 5/12 of 18 mn cancer deaths for Jan - May 2020 would be 7.5 million, so the top two killers are at 15 million, compared to 350 k. The latter is bad and could have been worse, but it is not utterly dominant of deaths, a misleading impression of the animation. Indeed, the CV19 deaths are larger than but comparable to a bad Flu year. We do not go into a global 2 - 3 month economy lock down because of Flu. Instead, we target vulnerable groups. We will need to reckon with potential deaths contingent on economic dislocation. kairosfocus

A more accurate representation of deaths https://www.worldometers.info/ For instance, Abortions (so far) worldwide this year: 18. 955, 297 https://www.worldometers.info/abortions/ Abortion was the leading cause of death worldwide in 2019, according to figures released from Worldometers.info, a website that uses reporting from the world’s governments to track demographics and vital statistics. LifeNews.com, a pro-life website, was among the few outlets to report on the 2019 abortion numbers, which show 42.3 million preborn babies killed worldwide. Worldometers recorded 58.6 million deaths last year from violence, illness and natural causes. Abortion statistics are recorded separately from mortality numbers.,,, “The abortion number is incomprehensible, but each of those 42 million abortions represents a living human being whose life was violently destroyed in their mother’s womb,” wrote Steven Ertelt and Micaiah Bilger for LifeNews. “Each unborn baby already had their own unique DNA, making them distinct from their mother.” Abortion rates compiled by the federal Centers for Disease Control, state governments and organizations such as Planned Parenthood show around 1 million abortions annually in the United States, with Planned Parenthood accounting for more than 345,000 of them in the 2019 reporting year. https://decisionmagazine.com/abortion-leading-cause-death-worldwide-2019/ Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs),,, takes an estimated 17.9 million lives each year Total # cancer deaths. (2018). 18,078,957 etc.. etc...

Of related interest,

If the trend for other countries holds for the USA, then we should start seeing a precipitous drop off very shortly for Covid deaths. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/confirmed-covid-19-deaths-total-vs-daily

bornagain77

KF

EG & RP, really big killers are not in that, eg cancer, heart, diabetes. (See here.) The “selective” is too selective. KF

No, it put COVID deaths in perspective amongst other causes of death that are in the same range. What I found interesting was how rapidly it surpassed deaths caused by the flu., the disease that COVID is most often compared to. Ed George

There are millions upon millions of unhealthy people on the planet. I am surprised the number of dead for covid-19 is so small. ET

EG, prezactly, that is part of why Dr Raoult's work is so important. We must not forget the French were in the forefront on HIV too. It is also of the nature of flu-like infectious diseases that we have an iceberg effect, the visible cases -- biased to those that go to a doctor or end up in hospital, are a small fraction of actual infections, which points to sampling to track antibodies so we can profile the structure of the 'berg by stratifying and adjusting weights to population. KF PS: Notice, again a point noted long since. Clinical differential diagnosis counts. Lab tests dependent on scare materials and equipment, PCR machines etc, are secondary. Hence the Zelenko protocol. Age and vulnerability linked preconditions are to be targetted for intervention within 5 days of symptoms, hence the value of a low cost easily produced cocktail of drugs. The point being, to prevent hospitalisation, itself a sign of severity and increased likelihood of death. Note here Raoult's result that serious lung damage can be there before symptoms are strong. Likewise his, loss of smell and taste sign. kairosfocus

EG & RP, really big killers are not in that, eg cancer, heart, diabetes. (See here.) The "selective" is too selective. KF PS: WHO:

The top 10 causes of death 24 May 2018 Of the 56.9 million deaths worldwide in 2016, more than half (54%) were due to the top 10 causes. Ischaemic heart disease and stroke are the world’s biggest killers, accounting for a combined 15.2 million deaths in 2016. These diseases have remained the leading causes of death globally in the last 15 years. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease claimed 3.0 million lives in 2016, while lung cancer (along with trachea and bronchus cancers) caused 1.7 million deaths. Diabetes killed 1.6 million people in 2016, up from less than 1 million in 2000. Deaths due to dementias more than doubled between 2000 and 2016, making it the 5th leading cause of global deaths in 2016 compared to 14th in 2000. Lower respiratory infections remained the most deadly communicable disease, causing 3.0 million deaths worldwide in 2016. The death rate from diarrhoeal diseases decreased by almost 1 million between 2000 and 2016, but still caused 1.4 million deaths in 2016. Similarly, the number of tuberculosis deaths decreased during the same period, but is still among the top 10 causes with a death toll of 1.3 million. HIV/AIDS is no longer among the world’s top 10 causes of death, having killed 1.0 million people in 2016 compared with 1.5 million in 2000. Road injuries killed 1.4 million people in 2016, about three-quarters (74%) of whom were men and boys.

kairosfocus

@5 Holy Hell. Retired Physicist

Very interesting visual representation https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2637725/?fbclid=IwAR02qv8TMZw5HwyQcY4xb8MBvwg9sLBpZV3X6fLBE199vNzx2mDnjkEBI7E Ed George

KF

EG, Dr Raoult heads a research institute based in a 3500 bed four hospital cluster and is a leading infectious diseases researcher. He has the resources to do what he did as a researcher...

Resources that are not available to most jurisdictions. The US has had more that 2 million confirmed cases, and probably many more that have not been tested. They have less than one million hospital beds, most filled on a routine basis for other reasons. For this treatment to be effective, if in fact it is, it must be given very early in the infection. Which means that you don’t have the luxury to do a full work up to see if the person is at a high risk. Ed George

EG, Dr Raoult heads a research institute based in a 3500 bed four hospital cluster and is a leading infectious diseases researcher. He has the resources to do what he did as a researcher, including 500 CAT scans and other high tech tests. His results, however ground the point that early intervention can avert hospitalisation. KF kairosfocus

Hospitalization and early treatment with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin (HCQ-AZ) was proposed for the positive cases.

From the beginning I have stated that I had no problem with administering HCQ under an in-patient basis because of the potential side-effects. But there are two problems with this as a routine practice: 1) We do not have the testing capacity to identify those in the early stages of infection. 2) We do not have the hospital capacity to provide beds for everyone who tests positive. Ed George

Dr Raoult Roars — new articles on findings and issues about HCQ + Cocktails for Covid-19 kairosfocus