From the days of Plato in The Laws, Bk X on, design thinkers have usually been inclined to think in terms of necessity, chance and choice when they analyse causal factors. In recent days, though, the reality of chance and its proper definition have been challenged, and not just here at UD.
A glance at the target to the left will definitely show the typical kind of scatter that is in effect uncontrollable, even after careful and skilled efforts to get accuracy and precision. Here, the shooter- gun- range combination is definitely hitting to the left and slightly high [NW quadrant], with a significant amount of scatter. We see here both want of accuracy and want of precision in the result, and could– if we wanted to, analyse the result statistically to generate a model based on random variables. Such is routinely done in scientific contexts, i.e. chance appears to be real, it appears in the guise of a causal factor leading to observable effects distinguishable from bias and from proximity to an intended target. Moreover, plainly, it can be studied using commonly used scientific methods.
But, some would argue, once the gun, shooter, target and range are set, and the trigger is pulled, the result is a foreordained conclusion.
See, no need for chance.
Especially, chance conceived as “Events and outcomes entirely unforeseen, undirected and unintended by any mind.“
However, this is not the only view of chance that is reasonable, especially in a scientific context.
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