Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

HeKS strikes gold again, or, why strong evidence of design is so often stoutly resisted or dismissed

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New UD contributor HeKS notes:

The evidence of purposeful design [–> in the cosmos and world of life]  is overwhelming on any objective analysis, but due to Methodological Naturalism it is claimed to be merely an appearance of purposeful design, an illusion, while it is claimed that naturalistic processes are sufficient to achieve this appearance of purposeful design, though none have ever been demonstrated to be up to the task. They are claimed to be up to the task only because they are the only plausible sounding naturalistic explanations available.

He goes on to add:

The argument for ID is an abductive argument. An abductive argument basically takes the form: “We observe an effect, x is causally adequate to explain the effect and is the most common [–> let’s adjust: per a good reason, the most plausible] cause of the effect, therefore x is currently the best explanation of the effect.” This is called an inference to the best explanation.

When it comes to ID in particular, the form of the abductive argument is even stronger. It takes the form: “We observe an effect, x is uniquely causally adequate to explain the effect as, presently, no other known explanation is causally adequate to explain the effect, therefore x is currently the best explanation of the effect.”

Abductive arguments [–> and broader inductive arguments] are always held tentatively because they cannot be as certain as deductive arguments [–> rooted in known true premises and using correct deductions step by step], but they are a perfectly valid form of argumentation and their conclusions are legitimate as long as the premises remain true, because they are a statement about the current state of our knowledge and the evidence rather than deductive statements about reality.

Abductive reasoning is, in fact, the standard form of reasoning on matters of historical science, whereas inductive reasoning is used on matters in the present and future.

And, on fair and well warranted comment, design is the only actually observed and needle in haystack search-plausible cause of functionally specific complex organisation and associated information (FSCO/I) which is abundantly common in the world of life and in the physics of the cosmos. Summing up diagramatically:

csi_defn

Similarly, we may document the inductive, inference to best current explanation logic of the design inference in a flow chart:

explan_filter

Also, we may give an iconic case, the protein synthesis process (noting the functional significance of proper folding),

Proteinsynthesis

. . . especially the part where proteins are assembled in the ribosome based on the coded algorithmic information in the mRNA tape threaded through the Ribosome:

prot_transln

And, for those who need it, an animated video clip may be helpful:

So, instantly, we may ask: what is the only actually — and in fact routinely — observed causal source of codes, algorithms, and associated co-ordinated, organised execution machinery?

ANS: intelligently directed contingency, aka design, where there is no good reason to assume, imply or constrain such intelligence to humans.

Where also, FSCO/I or even the wider Complex Specified Information is not an incoherent mish-mash dreamed up by silly brainwashed or machiavellian IDiots trying to subvert science and science education by smuggling in Creationism while lurking in cheap tuxedos, but instead the key notions and the very name itself trace to events across the 1970’s and into the early 1980’s as eminent scientists tried to come to grips with the evidence of the cell and of cosmology, as was noted in reply to a comment on the UD Weak Argument Correctives:

. . . we can see across the 1970′s, how OOL researchers not connected to design theory, Orgel (1973) and Wicken (1979) spoke on the record to highlight a key feature of the organisation of cell based life:

ORGEL, 1973: . . . In brief, living organisms are distinguished by their specified complexity. Crystals are usually taken as the prototypes of simple well-specified structures, because they consist of a very large number of identical molecules packed together in a uniform way. Lumps of granite or random mixtures of polymers are examples of structures that are complex but not specified. The crystals fail to qualify as living because they lack complexity; the mixtures of polymers fail to qualify because they lack specificity. [The Origins of Life (John Wiley, 1973), p. 189.]

WICKEN, 1979: ‘Organized’ systems are to be carefully distinguished from ‘ordered’ systems. Neither kind of system is ‘random,’ but whereas ordered systems are generated according to simple algorithms [ –> i.e. “simple” force laws acting on objects starting from arbitrary and common- place initial conditions] and therefore lack complexity, organized systems must be assembled element by element according to an [ –> originally . . . ] external ‘wiring diagram’ with a high information content . . . Organization, then, is functional complexity and carries information. It is non-random by design or by selection, rather than by the a priori necessity of crystallographic ‘order.’ [“The Generation of Complexity in Evolution: A Thermodynamic and Information-Theoretical Discussion,” Journal of Theoretical Biology, 77 (April 1979): p. 353, of pp. 349-65.]

At the turn of the ’80′s Nobel-equivalent prize-holding astrophysicist and lifelong agnostic, Sir Fred Hoyle, went on astonishing record:

Once we see that life is cosmic it is sensible to suppose that intelligence is cosmic. Now problems of order, such as the sequences of amino acids in the chains which constitute the enzymes and other proteins, are precisely the problems that become easy once a directed intelligence enters the picture, as was recognised long ago by James Clerk Maxwell in his invention of what is known in physics as the Maxwell demon. The difference between an intelligent ordering, whether of words, fruit boxes, amino acids, or the Rubik cube, and merely random shufflings can be fantastically large, even as large as a number that would fill the whole volume of Shakespeare’s plays with its zeros. So if one proceeds directly and straightforwardly in this matter, without being deflected by a fear of incurring the wrath of scientific opinion, one arrives at the conclusion that biomaterials with their amazing measure or order must be the outcome of intelligent design. No other possibility I have been able to think of in pondering this issue over quite a long time seems to me to have anything like as high a possibility of being true.” [Evolution from Space (The Omni Lecture[ –> Jan 12th 1982]), Enslow Publishers, 1982, pg. 28.]

Based on things I have seen, this usage of the term Intelligent Design may in fact be the historical source of the term for the theory.

The same worthy also is on well-known record on cosmological design in light of evident fine tuning:

From 1953 onward, Willy Fowler and I have always been intrigued by the remarkable relation of the 7.65 MeV energy level in the nucleus of 12 C to the 7.12 MeV level in 16 O. If you wanted to produce carbon and oxygen in roughly equal quantities by stellar nucleosynthesis, these are the two levels you would have to fix, and your fixing would have to be just where these levels are actually found to be. Another put-up job? . . . I am inclined to think so. A common sense interpretation of the facts suggests that a super intellect has “monkeyed” with the physics as well as the chemistry and biology, and there are no blind forces worth speaking about in nature. [F. Hoyle, Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 20 (1982): 16]

A talk given to Caltech (For which the above seems to have originally been conclusive remarks) adds:

The big problem in biology, as I see it, is to understand the origin of the information carried by the explicit structures of biomolecules. The issue isn’t so much the rather crude fact that a protein consists of a chain of amino acids linked together in a certain way, but that the explicit ordering of the amino acids endows the chain with remarkable properties, which other orderings wouldn’t give. The case of the enzymes is well known . . . If amino acids were linked at random, there would be a vast number of arrange-ments that would be useless in serving the pur-poses of a living cell. When you consider that a typical enzyme has a chain of perhaps 200 links and that there are 20 possibilities for each link,it’s easy to see that the number of useless arrangements is enormous, more than the number of atoms in all the galaxies visible in the largest telescopes. This is for one enzyme, and there are upwards of 2000 of them, mainly serving very different purposes. So how did the situation get to where we find it to be? This is, as I see it, the biological problem – the information problem . . . .

I was constantly plagued by the thought that the number of ways in which even a single enzyme could be wrongly constructed was greater than the number of all the atoms in the universe. So try as I would, I couldn’t convince myself that even the whole universe would be sufficient to find life by random processes – by what are called the blind forces of nature . . . . By far the simplest way to arrive at the correct sequences of amino acids in the enzymes would be by thought, not by random processes . . . .

Now imagine yourself as a superintellect working through possibilities in polymer chemistry. Would you not be astonished that polymers based on the carbon atom turned out in your calculations to have the remarkable properties of the enzymes and other biomolecules? Would you not be bowled over in surprise to find that a living cell was a feasible construct? Would you not say to yourself, in whatever language supercalculating intellects use: Some supercalculating intellect must have designed the properties of the carbon atom, otherwise the chance of my finding such an atom through the blind forces of nature would be utterly minuscule. Of course you would, and if you were a sensible superintellect you would conclude that the carbon atom is a fix.

These words in the same talk must have set his audience on their ears:

I do not believe that any physicist who examined the evidence could fail to draw the inference that the laws of nuclear physics have been deliberately designed with regard to the consequences they produce within stars. [“The Universe: Past and Present Reflections.” Engineering and Science, November, 1981. pp. 8–12]

So, then, why is the design inference so often so stoutly resisted?

LEWONTIN, 1997: . . . to put a correct view of the universe into people’s heads we must first get an incorrect view out . . . the problem is to get them to reject irrational and supernatural explanations of the world, the demons that exist only in their imaginations, and to accept a social and intellectual apparatus, Science, as the only begetter of truth [–> NB: this is a knowledge claim about knowledge and its possible sources, i.e. it is a claim in philosophy not science; it is thus self-refuting] . . . .

It is not that the methods and institutions of science somehow compel us to accept a material explanation of the phenomenal world, but, on the contrary, that we are forced by our a priori adherence to material causes [–> another major begging of the question . . . ] to create an apparatus of investigation and a set of concepts that produce material explanations, no matter how counter-intuitive, no matter how mystifying to the uninitiated. Moreover, that materialism is absolute [–> i.e. here we see the fallacious, indoctrinated, ideological, closed mind . . . ], for we cannot allow a Divine Foot in the door. [Billions and billions of demons, NYRB Jan 1997. If you imagine that the above has been “quote mined” kindly read the fuller extract and notes here on, noting the onward link to the original article.]

NSTA BOARD, 2000: The principal product of science is knowledge in the form of naturalistic concepts and the laws and theories related to those concepts [–> as in, Phil Johnson was dead on target in his retort to Lewontin, science is being radically re-defined on a foundation of a priori evolutionary materialism from hydrogen to humans] . . . .

Although no single universal step-by-step scientific method captures the complexity of doing science, a number of shared values and perspectives characterize a scientific approach to understanding nature. Among these are a demand for naturalistic explanations [–> the ideological loading now exerts censorship on science] supported by empirical evidence [–> but the evidence is never allowed to speak outside a materialistic circle so the questions are begged at the outset] that are, at least in principle, testable against the natural world [–> but the competition is only allowed to be among contestants passed by the Materialist Guardian Council] . . . .

Science, by definition, is limited to naturalistic methods and explanations and, as such, is precluded from using supernatural elements [–> in fact this imposes a strawman caricature of the alternative to a priori materialism, as was documented since Plato in The Laws, Bk X, namely natural vs artificial causal factors, that may in principle be analysed on empirical characteristics that may be observed. Once one already labels “supernatural” and implies “irrational,” huge questions are a priori begged and prejudices amounting to bigotry are excited to impose censorship which here is being insitutionalised in science education by the national science teachers association board of the USA.] in the production of scientific knowledge. [[NSTA, Board of Directors, July 2000. Emphases added.]

MAHNER, 2011: This paper defends the view that metaphysical naturalism is a constitutive ontological principle of science in that the general empirical methods of science, such as observation, measurement and experiment, and thus the very production of empirical evidence, presuppose a no-supernature principle . . . .

Metaphysical or ontological naturalism (henceforth: ON) [“roughly” and “simply”] is the view that all that exists is our lawful spatiotemporal world. Its negation is of course supernaturalism: the view that our lawful spatiotemporal world is not all that exists because there is another non-spatiotemporal world transcending the natural one, whose inhabitants—usually considered to be intentional beings—are not subject to natural laws . . . .

ON is not part of a deductive argument in the sense that if we collected all the statements or theories of science and used them as premises, then ON would logically follow. After all, scientific theories do not explicitly talk about anything metaphysical such as the presence or absence of supernatural entities: they simply refer to natural entities and processes only. Therefore, ON rather is a tacit metaphysical supposition of science, an ontological postulate. It is part of a metascientific framework or, if preferred, of the metaparadigm of science that guides the construction and evaluation of theories, and that helps to explain why science works and succeeds in studying and explaining the world. Now this can be interpreted in a weak and a strong sense. In the weak sense, ON is only part of the metaphysical background assumptions of contemporary science as a result of historical contingency; so much so that we could replace ON by its antithesis any time, and science would still work fine. This is the view of the creationists, and, curiously, even of some philosophers of science (e.g., Monton 2009). In the strong sense, ON is essential to science; that is, if it were removed from the metaphysics of science, what we would get would no longer be a science. Conversely, inasmuch as early science accepted supernatural entities as explainers, it was not proper science yet. It is of course this strong sense that I have in mind when I say that science presupposes ON. [In, his recent Science and Education article, “The role of Metaphysical Naturalism in Science” (2011) ]

In short, there is strong evidence of ideological bias and censorship in contemporary science and science education on especially matters of origins, reflecting the dominance of a priori evolutionary materialism.

To all such, Philip Johnson’s reply to Lewontin of November 1997 is a classic:

For scientific materialists the materialism comes first; the science comes thereafter. [Emphasis original.] We might more accurately term them “materialists employing science.” And if materialism is true, then some materialistic theory of evolution has to be true simply as a matter of logical deduction, regardless of the evidence. That theory will necessarily be at least roughly like neo-Darwinism, in that it will have to involve some combination of random changes and law-like processes capable of producing complicated organisms that (in Dawkins’ words) “give the appearance of having been designed for a purpose.”

. . . . The debate about creation and evolution is not deadlocked . . . Biblical literalism is not the issue. The issue is whether materialism and rationality are the same thing. Darwinism is based on an a priori commitment to materialism, not on a philosophically neutral assessment of the evidence. Separate the philosophy from the science, and the proud tower collapses. [Emphasis added.] [The Unraveling of Scientific Materialism, First Things, 77 (Nov. 1997), pp. 22 – 25.]

Please, bear such in mind when you continue to observe the debate exchanges here at UD and beyond. END

Comments
NL: Let us hear the thinking of a great theistic scientist on a designer and architect of the cosmos. Yes, Sir Isaaac Newton, in the General Scholium to Principia:
. . . This most beautiful system of the sun, planets, and comets, could only proceed from the counsel and dominion of an intelligent and powerful Being. And if the fixed stars are the centres of other like systems, these, being formed by the like wise counsel, must be all subject to the dominion of One; especially since the light of the fixed stars is of the same nature with the light of the sun, and from every system light passes into all the other systems: and lest the systems of the fixed stars should, by their gravity, fall on each other mutually, he hath placed those systems at immense distances one from another. This Being governs all things, not as the soul of the world, but as Lord over all; and on account of his dominion he is wont to be called Lord God pantokrator , or Universal Ruler; for God is a relative word, and has a respect to servants; and Deity is the dominion of God not over his own body, as those imagine who fancy God to be the soul of the world, but over servants. The Supreme God is a Being eternal, infinite, absolutely perfect; but a being, however perfect, without dominion, cannot be said to be Lord God; for we say, my God, your God, the God of Israel, the God of Gods, and Lord of Lords; but we do not say, my Eternal, your Eternal, the Eternal of Israel, the Eternal of Gods; we do not say, my Infinite, or my Perfect: these are titles which have no respect to servants. The word God usually signifies Lord; but every lord is not a God. It is the dominion of a spiritual being which constitutes a God: a true, supreme, or imaginary dominion makes a true, supreme, or imaginary God. And from his true dominion it follows that the true God is a living, intelligent, and powerful Being; and, from his other perfections, that he is supreme, or most perfect. He is eternal and infinite, omnipotent and omniscient; that is, his duration reaches from eternity to eternity; his presence from infinity to infinity; he governs all things, and knows all things that are or can be done. He is not eternity or infinity, but eternal and infinite; he is not duration or space, but he endures and is present. He endures for ever, and is every where present; and by existing always and every where, he constitutes duration and space. Since every particle of space is always, and every indivisible moment of duration is every where, certainly the Maker and Lord of all things cannot be never and no where. Every soul that has perception is, though in different times and in different organs of sense and motion, still the same indivisible person. There are given successive parts in duration, co-existent puts in space, but neither the one nor the other in the person of a man, or his thinking principle; and much less can they be found in the thinking substance of God. Every man, so far as he is a thing that has perception, is one and the same man during his whole life, in all and each of his organs of sense. God is the same God, always and every where. He is omnipresent not virtually only, but also substantially; for virtue cannot subsist without substance. In him are all things contained and moved [i.e. cites Ac 17, where Paul evidently cites Cleanthes]; yet neither affects the other: God suffers nothing from the motion of bodies; bodies find no resistance from the omnipresence of God. It is allowed by all that the Supreme God exists necessarily; and by the same necessity he exists always, and every where. [i.e accepts the cosmological argument to God.] Whence also he is all similar, all eye, all ear, all brain, all arm, all power to perceive, to understand, and to act; but in a manner not at all human, in a manner not at all corporeal, in a manner utterly unknown to us. As a blind man has no idea of colours, so have we no idea of the manner by which the all-wise God perceives and understands all things. He is utterly void of all body and bodily figure, and can therefore neither be seen, nor heard, or touched; nor ought he to be worshipped under the representation of any corporeal thing. [Cites Exod 20.] We have ideas of his attributes, but what the real substance of any thing is we know not. In bodies, we see only their figures and colours, we hear only the sounds, we touch only their outward surfaces, we smell only the smells, and taste the savours; but their inward substances are not to be known either by our senses, or by any reflex act of our minds: much less, then, have we any idea of the substance of God. We know him only by his most wise and excellent contrivances of things, and final cause [i.e from his designs]: we admire him for his perfections; but we reverence and adore him on account of his dominion: for we adore him as his servants; and a god without dominion, providence, and final causes, is nothing else but Fate and Nature. Blind metaphysical necessity, which is certainly the same always and every where, could produce no variety of things. [i.e necessity does not produce contingency] All that diversity of natural things which we find suited to different times and places could arise from nothing but the ideas and will of a Being necessarily existing. [That is, implicitly rejects chance, Plato's third alternative and explicitly infers to the Designer of the Cosmos.] But, by way of allegory, God is said to see, to speak, to laugh, to love, to hate, to desire, to give, to receive, to rejoice, to be angry, to fight, to frame, to work, to build; for all our notions of God are taken from. the ways of mankind by a certain similitude, which, though not perfect, has some likeness, however. And thus much concerning God; to discourse of whom from the appearances of things, does certainly belong to Natural Philosophy.
All I will say for now beyond that is, that if your picture of how a theistic scientist thinks cannot at least match up to Newton, you are painting, scorning and knocking over a strawman. KF PS: You seem to be caught up in the fixed, propagandistic notion that the actions of an all-wise Creator would reflect "caprice" ---
caprice (k??pri?s) n 1. a sudden or unpredictable change of attitude, behaviour, etc; whim 2. a tendency to such changes 3. (Classical Music) another word for capriccio [C17: from French, from Italian capriccio a shiver, caprice, from capo head + riccio hedgehog, suggesting a convulsive shudder in which the hair stood on end like a hedgehog's spines; meaning also influenced by Italian capra goat, by folk etymology] Collins English Dictionary – Complete and Unabridged © HarperCollins Publishers 1991, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2003
-- That, it seems to me would be the exact opposite of a God who would be reason himself, a maximally great being, and would have infinitely wise purpose. Instead, I suggest that C S Lewis in Miracles and in other essays, is far closer to home. His point was that God would use miracles as signposts standing out from the usual order of creation and as such there would necessarily be a usual order amenable to understanding and science. But it would be open to necessarily rare actions beyond the usual order for god purposes of the Creator's. And besides, there is no necessity of the miraculous in the creation or diversification of cell based life, even on the part of God. Why wouldn't God use a molecular nanotech lab to create and diversify? And if not, that something happened beyond the course of nature or ordinary art, how different is that really from our own intelligent and purposeful creativity? If that is what he wished to do, would that be irrational or whimsical or merely impulsive? I suggest to you, not. (And in the Christian frame, reflect here on the God who would in love hang on a cross as a wounded healer redeemer.) It seems to me you are caught up in dismissive strawman fallacies and linked polarisation. Kindly, think again.kairosfocus
October 3, 2014
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nightlight is pure entertainment bwahahahaha thanks nightlight!Vishnu
October 3, 2014
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#16 NL: Has it registered that a chess program is a highly complex, carefully programmed software entity, tracing directly to a highly skilled and knowlegeable intelligent designer? There is nothing in principle that precludes another program B from writing a chess program A. Similarly, there is nothing in principle that precludes some program C from writing program B, etc. All these programs are finite sequences of symbols, hence computable objects by a Turing machine (or universal computer). As noted previously, any action that human programer of chess program did is a finite sequence of actions that a suitably programmed android robot could have executed (which in turn could have been produced by another android robot etc). For all you or anyone else knows, the human chess programmer, along with the rest of us, could all be some artifacts of an underlying computation, like those gliders and glider guns in the Conway's Game of Life.nightlight
October 3, 2014
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#12 "There is nothing in the science literature or history that ID objects to if it is supported by evidence of naturalistic processes." How does DI's ID explain "irreducible complexity" i.e. how exactly does their so-called "intelligent agency" enter the picture of the lawfully unfolding universe to "solve" the "irreducibly complex" puzzle? How does it make molecules (e.g. of the first live organism) arrange themselves into something they wouldn't have otherwise done by natural laws (presently known or some we will discover in the future)? Does it do it lawfully (without violating the rules of the game, whatever they may be) or does it override the laws? If the latter, than this is anti-scientific approach, since natural science is based on faith in complete lawfulness of all phenomena in the universe. Note that 'rules of the game' above are not a synonym with 'natural laws as presently known' since these are always subject to change, from smaller refinements to complete overturning. Hence, the real or ultimate 'rules of the game' may never be known.nightlight
October 3, 2014
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NL: Has it registered that a chess program is a highly complex, carefully programmed software entity, tracing directly to a highly skilled and knowlegeable intelligent designer? That, if the designer blunders badly enough, it will fail, or almost worse, partly work then fail when it is counted upon? KFkairosfocus
October 3, 2014
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#11 Show me one example – just one; that’s all I need – of chance/law forces creating 500 bits of complex specified information. A chess program which only has basic rules front-loaded into the code, can compute/produce millions of interesting, high quality chess games (better or equal to any that humans have created) that its programmer never dreamed of. Each game contains from few hundred to few thousand bits of CSI. Note though that "information" in CSI is a vague quantity, unless one specifies computational model with respect to which the information is measured (how much code does one need to specify algorithm that produces it within that model). E.g. you can look at sequence of 1,000,000 binary digits and declare that it has 1 million bits of "information". That is true if the program producing it is just a simple printf("%s\n",array) statement. But if the program is a random number generator function, the "information" in that sequence may be only few dozen bits (for the initial state of the generator). Of course, the same ambiguity and arbitrariness holds for any amount of CSI attributed to any biological system in the ID literature. If you take some dumb algorithm (such as random trial and error or simple stochastic search, such as GA), the CSI will appear numerically large. But if you knew the underlying algorithm that actually computed it (analogous to knowing the random number generator behind the above million bits of "information"), it may be small, like the one that produces complex looking fractals or little program that spews millions of digits of Pi. Present science doesn't know what is the minimum amount of "information" contained in any biological system, or universe relative to all possible generating algorithms. There are only guesses relative to some generating models that particular authors were able come up with. Hence all such CSI claims by Dembski and others, are subjective and carry little scientific weight i.e. all they are effectively saying amounts to "if God were as smart as William Dembski, then he would need to front load this much CSI into this phenomenon." So what? Who cares. Regarding related issue often brought up in this context -- while present chess programs are written humans, nothing in principle precludes another program B from writing a chess program A, then another one program C from writing program B, then a program D from writing program C, etc. It is also perfectly plausible, or at least conceivable, that anything we (humans) are doing is result of underlying computational processes. Any finite sequence (of anything, actions, symbols etc) can be replicated by a computational process, hence any actions and production of any human can be replicated by such processes. All that is completely non-controversial, trivial observation. The scientifically interesting question is how much computational front loading does one need to replicate the present universe. Some researchers who play with fundamental models of physics, pregeometry (see post & links on Wolfram's NKS), believe that very little 'intelligence' or CSI needs to be front loaded (ontologically, or postulated on the epistemological side), as long as the basic building blocks (which are front loaded) support for additive intelligence (computational power), such as neural networks of simple automata. Of course, some front loading (or postulates) are needed as a starting point for any science. The key trait of natural science is that it assumes lawfulness of construction from whatever front loading is taken as its basis. In that respect Discovery Institute's ID is anti-scientific since it insists on postulating capricious part time entity jumping in or out of the creation at will, to "fix" or "improve" upon this or that flaw in the lawful behavior of its creation. In contrast, the natural science is based on the faith in complete lawfulness of the universe (our present 'natural laws' are not necessarily the last word on that 'lawfulness').nightlight
October 3, 2014
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CHANCE: >> chance (chns) n. 1. a. The unknown and unpredictable element in happenings that seems to have no assignable cause. b. A force assumed to cause events that cannot be foreseen or controlled; luck: Chance will determine the outcome. 2. The likelihood of something happening; possibility or probability. Often used in the plural: Chances are good that you will win. Is there any chance of rain? 3. An accidental or unpredictable event. 4. A favorable set of circumstances; an opportunity: a chance to escape. 5. A risk or hazard; a gamble: took a chance that the ice would hold me. 6. Games A raffle or lottery ticket. 7. Baseball An opportunity to make a putout or an assist that counts as an error if unsuccessful. adj. Caused by or ascribable to chance; unexpected, random, or casual: a chance encounter; a chance result. v. chanced, chanc·ing, chanc·es v.intr. To come about by chance; occur: It chanced that the train was late that day. v.tr. To take the risk or hazard of: not willing to chance it. Phrasal Verb: chance on/upon To find or meet accidentally; happen upon: While in Paris we chanced on two old friends. Idioms: by chance 1. Without plan; accidentally: They met by chance on a plane. 2. Possibly; perchance: Is he, by chance, her brother? on the off chance In the slight hope or possibility. [Middle English, unexpected event, from Old French, from Vulgar Latin *cadentia, from Latin cadns, cadent-, present participle of cadere, to fall, befall; see kad- in Indo-European roots.] Synonyms: chance, random, casual, haphazard, desultory These adjectives apply to what is determined not by deliberation but by accident. Chance stresses lack of premeditation: a chance meeting with a friend. Random implies the absence of a specific pattern or objective: took a random guess. Casual often suggests an absence of due concern: a casual observation. Haphazard implies a carelessness or a willful leaving to chance: a haphazard plan of action. Desultory suggests a shifting about from one thing to another that reflects a lack of method: a desultory conversation. See Also Synonyms at happen, opportunity. The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved. >> I would suggest that events of high contingency of outcomes under closely similar initial circumstances, reflective of stochastic distributions and the resulting range of expectations, or similar models of contingencies leading to simulated or real-world Monte Carlo-like patterns of outcomes, are generally ascribed to chance. Such as, the total achieved by tossing a pair of ordinary dice . . . a classic case in point. Zener or sky noise is another. In the former case, clashing uncorrelated cause effect chains amplified by sensitive dependence on initial conditions, drives a butterfly effect influenced outcome predictable only up to a distribution. In the latter case Q-mech effects and patterns point to a random influence. As the infographic in the OP shows, such would be maximally unlikely to hit on FSCO/I islands, on the gamut of solar system or observed cosmos. Mechanical necessity by contrast is low contingency, e.g F = mA and the case F = mg. Intelligently directed contingency is widely seen to be responsible for designs. Now, I really gotta get a move on. KFkairosfocus
October 3, 2014
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I wonder if nightlight will accept the logic of those cogent rebuttals. Who can but doubt that he will find a way of, at least, privately, rejecting them, on whatever fanciful grounds he can imagine?Axel
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The capricious part time deity of Discovery Institute’s ID is an anti-scientific dead end.
This is one of the more nonsense statements made here. There is nothing in the science literature or history that ID objects to if it is supported by evidence of naturalistic processes. Name one.jerry
October 3, 2014
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Nightlight:
[ID is] a silly, childishly naive, incoherent, tautologically anti-scientific position that by definition has no chance of ever becoming part of natural science.
Show me one example – just one; that’s all I need – of chance/law forces creating 500 bits of complex specified information. [Question begging not allowed.] If you do, I will delete all of the pro-ID posts on this website and turn it into a forum for the promotion of materialism. [I won’t be holding my breath.] I understand your faith requires you to taunt us like this; yours is a demanding religion after all; but until you can do that, your taunts seem premature at best and just plain stupid at worst. Barry Arrington
October 3, 2014
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NL: I gotta go now, but I just want to tell you that computational substrates blindly carry out programmed-in or built-in instructions driven by GIGO. And behind every such, is intelligently directed contingency, AKA design. If you doubt me, go ask Uncle Gill Gates about his payroll. I assure you it is not a list of monkeys pounding at keyboards and eep eeping for bananas. And, if you look in the above, you will see that Sir Fred spoke to the programming of the laws of the cosmos. Where, the per aspect design inference explanatory filter is specific to settings where from observable features of an entity, design is warranted on empirically reliable sign. KFkairosfocus
October 3, 2014
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nightlight #3
Anything that can be informally described as ‘intelligent’ behavior can in principle be modeled via computation
For a thing to be modelled, it needs a modeller.
Programs can also write other programs
But you need to show that a non-program can write a program.Silver Asiatic
October 3, 2014
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(I should point out that I am not saying that ID postulates "non-lawful" behavior at any point. Just that, as an explanation for apparent design, nightlight's "nature is lawful" arguments are wishful thinking at best and irrelevant non sequitur at worst).drc466
October 3, 2014
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Nightlight @3, You seem to be saying that what we perceive as "design" is simply the natural outcome of "lawful" processes. To put it politely, to assert this is to assume what you claim to prove - you have no evidence that unguided lawful processes can produce what we perceive as design.
Computers operate completely via contingency (lawful behavior), yet they can play chess better than human world champion. Programs can also write other programs.
Your two attempts to provide examples of how computational process can produce apparent design serve to majestically illustrate your flawed premise. Any person with common sense, let alone software developer, will tell you that you can't take an empty computer, flip it on, sit back and wait for a chess program or program-writing-program to magically appear from random "computational process". Only the design and implementation of such a program will produce the desired result. And even then a "program-writing-program" can only write programs for which the design is built in - it cannot write, for example, a chess-playing program if it has not been provided the rules for playing chess, or some method of learning them. Your entire premise falls cleanly into the category of "just-so story". Until and unless you can experimentally demonstrate "lawful" processes creating de novo design, you're just another evo-carny barker preaching up your magic elixir, hoping to deceive the gullible with lots of hand-waving and pseudo-scientific babble. Or, in other words - if "Nature points out to computational process as the source for initial & boundary condition", how come we cannot observe these computational processes producing design today? Why can we look at a car and immediately conclude "designed", not "computationally processed by nature"?drc466
October 3, 2014
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#5 The harsh reality is that nature screams design Nature points out to computational process as the source for initial & boundary condition, not to 'chance' (the simple probability distributions). You can call that kind of initial-boundary conditions informally 'design' or 'intelligence' in popular presentations, but computational process suffices for the natural science to work with i.e. to explain and model such phenomena (as it already does to some extent, see at the link). The warm and fuzzy woozy design-talk or consciousness-talk don't add anything constructively useful to 'computational process'. The capricious part time deity of Discovery Institute's ID is an anti-scientific dead end.nightlight
October 3, 2014
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I submit post #3 as evidence of the mental gymnastics materialists will employ to dodge and duck the uncomfortable questions. The harsh reality is that nature screams design and people like nightlight are terrified. They hide kicking and screaming and will employ any tactic possible in an attempt to escape this reality.humbled
October 3, 2014
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The ramifications of accepting design poses a huge challenge in the minds of the materialists and is the root cause for people to reject common sense and logic as well as their own intuition. If they accept ID they open the door to scary questions like "Who am I", "Why was I created", "Do I have a purpose", "Who or what is my Creator(s)" and "What does s/he, they, it want / expect from me" and of course other scary issues surface as well like responsibility, accountability etc. These are the real reasons they resist/reject ID. They themselves on many occasions have admitted design in nature only to dismiss it as only having the "appearance" of design. Instead they disable their critical thinking skills, ignore logic, reason and sound judgement, and create materialist myths and fairy tales in an attempt to hide from the unpleasant likely reality that we are the result of an intelligent mind.humbled
October 3, 2014
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Your flowchart is overly simpleminded. Computers operate completely via contingency (lawful behavior), yet they can play chess better than human world champion. Programs can also write other programs. Lawfulness and 'design' are thus not mutually exclusive (or even in comparable realms). You simply don't need subjective, anthropomorphic 'design-talk' to scientifically describe or model what informally we call 'intelligent' behavior, when computation suffices. Anything that can be informally described as 'intelligent' behavior can in principle be modeled via computation (whether we can presently write suitable program for some specific behavior is another issue) i.e. via a perfectly lawful system. Similarly, 'chance' is merely a term of convention for special kind of initial-boundary conditions (the handful of simple probability distributions) in a lawful system. Computation is another kind of initial-boundary conditions (non-probabilistic) which are not covered by the simple probability distributions that we informally label as 'chance'. You are weaving way too much speculation on the top of some informal, vague and anthropomorphic language. Nothing scientific really follows from your flowchart. The real issue of Discovery Institute's ID (DI-ID) is not 'methodological naturalism' but whether nature operates lawfully or not. Natural science assumes it does i.e. its domain is by definition that of the lawful phenomena (which includes lawful systems with 'chance' and 'computation' describing their initial-boundary conditions). In contrast, DI-ID insists on unscientific notion of unlawful, capricious part-time designer, which jumps in every now and then to solve some puzzle of 'irreducible complexity' that the 'laws' cannot solve. It's a silly, childishly naive, incoherent, tautologically anti-scientific position that by definition has no chance of ever becoming part of natural science. The capricious, anti-lawful DI-ID's deity is the fiction created by the religious priesthoods (churchianity) claiming to itself the exclusive connection to that unlawful deity (the lawfulness is much too democratic and egalitarian for the elitists priesthoods).nightlight
October 3, 2014
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"Abductive arguments [--> and broader inductive arguments] are always held tentatively because they cannot be as certain as deductive arguments [--> rooted in known true premises and using correct deductions step by step], but they are a perfectly valid form of argumentation and their conclusions are legitimate as long as the premises remain true, because they are a statement about the current state of our knowledge and the evidence rather than deductive statements about reality." The no-free-lunch theorem and the law of conservation of information are mathematical proof that biological information cannot arise naturally.Jim Smith
October 3, 2014
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Why is it that, in the face of strong appearance of and empirical plausibility of design as cause of FSCO/I, such is so often so stoutly resisted?kairosfocus
October 3, 2014
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