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A Final Word on “Evidence”

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In several posts last month Dr. Torley and I led a spirited discussion on the nature of “evidence.” See here, here, here and here. Those discussions revealed there is a lot of confusion about this topic. This is especially the case when it comes to the purpose of evidence. Many of our materialist friends seem to believe that unless evidence compels belief it does not count as evidence at all. Worse, they seem to believe that merely by advancing an alternative explanation for some proposition, they have caused all of the evidence for the explanation advanced by their opponents to magically turn into non-evidence.  This is simply not the case.

Let’s go back to the dictionary. Evidence is “the available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid.”

The critical word there is “indicating.” To be evidence a fact need merely indicate that a proposition is true. It need not compel belief in the proposition. As I stated in one of my posts, a jury trial is a good example of this. In every jury trial both sides submit evidence to the jury. But in every jury trial only one side wins. Does that mean the losing side’s evidence was not evidence because the jury did not believe it? Of course not. Again, evidence “indicates.” It does not compel.

Consider Dr. Torley’s example of the evidence for the alleged levitations of St. Joseph of Cupertino in the 1600s. Dr. Torley states:

The records show at least 150 sworn depositions of witnesses of high credentials: cardinals, bishops, surgeons, craftsmen, princes and princesses who personally lived by his word, popes, inquisitors, and countless variety of ordinary citizens and pilgrims. There are letters, diaries and biographies written by his superiors while living with him. Arcangelo di Rosmi recorded 70 incidents of levitation

I had never heard of St. Joseph of Cupertino prior to reading about him in Dr. Torley’s post. I did a little investigation and found out he was a real person and in fact to this day he is the patron saint of air travelers, aviators, astronauts, test takers and poor students.

Frankly, however, I remain incredulous about the reports of levitation. Does that mean I believe Dr. Torley failed to adduce any evidence at all that St. Joseph could levitate? Of course not. All of those reports to which Dr. Torley alluded indicate that belief in the proposition that St. Joseph could fly is valid.  Again, the key word is “indicate.”  To indicate means to point to a possibility.  Sure, there may be other possibilities (for example, the reports might be false).  An indication does not compel belief. It merely supports it. And that is what evidence does; its supports belief.  And that is the case even if that belief turns out to be false.  When a jury is presented with conflicting evidence they weigh all of the evidence and do their best to come to a reasonable conclusion.  If they reject evidence, that does not mean it was not evidence.  It means they found the evidence unpersuasive.

Thus, when I say I am disinclined to believe that St. Joseph could fly, I am not saying there is no evidence he could fly. Of course there is. I am merely saying I am not inclined to believe the evidence.  There is a huge epistemic difference between “there is no evidence” and “I personally find the evidence unpersuasive.”

Some of our atheist friends, on the other hand, seem to think that the word “evidence” means “that which I personally find persuasive.” As astounding at it may seem, they actually believe that if they personally find evidence to be non-persuasive they are justified in claiming it is not evidence in the first place. And of course that is just plain stupid. They are entitled to their own evaluation of the evidence. They are not entitled to change the meaning of words to suit their argument.

A word of advice to our atheist interlocutors. You are entitled logically to say to a theist, “In my judgment your evidence is unpersuasive.” But you cannot logically say “I have defined your evidence as non-evidence merely because I found it unpersuasive.”

Claiming evidence does not exist because you don’t find it persuasive is at best intellectually lazy; at worst it is dishonest.

Why am I belaboring this point? Because I hope our arguments with atheists on this site will be challenging and interesting. And responding to stupid arguments like “there is absolutely no evidence for the existence of God” is tedious and boring.

Comments
tabasco @ 113. Actually, your 111 demonstrates WJM's point rather nicely. You are beyond reason. All you have is mulish obstinacy when you have been shown to be wrong. Barry Arrington
March 23, 2015
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tabasco continues to dodge my question at 63.Barry Arrington
March 23, 2015
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HeKS, Keep in mind that William does poorly in debates at TSZ and must rationalize his failures to himself by declaring his opponents "beyond reason". The more he participates at TSZ -- particularly when technical topics like CSI are being discussed -- the harder it is for him to maintain this rationalization. As he has stated many times, he is not concerned with the truth of his beliefs -- only with whether they "work for him". The belief that his opponents are "beyond reason" "works" for him. It makes him feel good, and it allows him to avoid confronting his failures.tabasco
March 23, 2015
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HeKS said:
Rather, they are referring to an observable feature of a system that they think the available evidence suggests is improbable to be achieved by unguided processes, often in principle, which, though it requires supporting argumentation, is not circular.
I think the key point for neutral observers lies in the distinction between "unlikely to be generated by known natural processes" and "best explained by intelligent design". Just because something is highly unlikely by current scientific knowledge about natural forces doesn't mean it is necessarily best explained by ID. For example, pulsars. Natural forces are known for producing regularities, so even though the signal we got from a pulsar was, at the time, highly unlikely and considered unusual by current knowledge at the time, that didn't necessarily mean it was best explained by intelligence. Mere regularity, even if highly unlikely given current scientific knowledge about nature, is not enough for a design inference. It is instead the positive evidence for design - things we only see artificially generated and never (so far, at least) by nature - that precipitate a design inference. If, for example, along with the regularity of the pulsar signal there was an embedded code that could be used to construct a communications device and directions on where to point it, the only known source of that kind of complex, specified, functional information is intelligent agency. The conclusion isn't based on "because known natural forces are unlikely", but rather it is based on "the only known source of this kind of phenomena is intelligent agency". The "improbability" of known natural forces in generating the phenomena is not the deciding factor in establishing ID as best explanation. Therefore, it is not circular at all.
Largely, I’m trying to get them to understand..
You're trying to get them to understand that which their entire concept of self and reality relies upon not understanding. Good luck with that :)William J Murray
March 23, 2015
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tabasco #76:
The way forward isn’t to scold either of them for their use of the word ‘evidence’. Your OP therefore misses the mark.
William J Murray:
Actually, it hits that exact mark. In his O.P., Mr. Arrington brings to task those who wish to deny evidence for competing theories exists at all simply because those people are convinced of the truth/validity of their own theory.
It misses the mark because he writes this:
Claiming evidence does not exist because you don’t find it persuasive is at best intellectually lazy; at worst it is dishonest.
As my example shows, to say that something isn't evidence is the correct response if you believe that it doesn't satisfy the definition. Here's my definition:
Something counts as evidence for a proposition P to the extent that it supports the truth of P.
Barry endorsed that definition as "exactly right". Since Svetlana does not believe that Kim K's hair color supports the infinitude of the primes, she is using the word "evidence" correctly when she says that Kim K's hair color is not evidence for the IoP. Dieter can challenge this, of course, by showing that KK's hair color does in fact support the IoP. Now let's consider the atheist was who ignited this kerfuffle by saying there was no evidence for God's existence. Whoever that was, he or she was using the word 'evidence' correctly provided that he or she believed that none of the so-called evidence actually supported the proposition that God exists. Theists may disagree with this assessment, but that doesn't mean that the atheist's use of the phrase "no evidence" was illogical, lazy or dishonest. Barry's OP missed the mark.tabasco
March 23, 2015
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WJM, I ultimately agree with you, but in this case the argument is primarily about what people actually mean when they talk about CSI and whether the associated claims are circular. Largely, I'm trying to get them to understand that a lot of people, when they talk about CSI, do not mean it in precisely the way Dembski uses it in his conditional argument (i.e. IF something is highly unlikely AND matches a specification, THEN a design inference is warranted). More specifically, I'm trying to get them to understand that many people use the "complex" part of "CSI" to mean "many well-matched parts" rather than "highly improbable". Thus, generally speaking, when an ID proponent here says something like, 'it contains CSI and therefore I think it is highly improbable that it arose through unguided evolutionary mechanisms', they are not typically making the circular claim that because it is improbable it has CSI and because it has CSI it is proved to be improbable, which would be the case if they were using "CSI" in precisely the way Dembski does. Rather, they are referring to an observable feature of a system that they think the available evidence suggests is improbable to be achieved by unguided processes, often in principle, which, though it requires supporting argumentation, is not circular.HeKS
March 23, 2015
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not_querious:
Joe, this is exactly what Barry is talking about in this OP. the improper use by materials of the word “evidence”.
Right, you improperly used the word.
The items I mentioned above are definitely evidence in support of unguided evolution.
Cuz you say so? You can't provide any evidence that unguided evolution can get beyond populations of prokaryotes.
The fact that you don’t think that the evidence is convincing doesn’t change the fact that it is evidence.
It's evidence, just not for unguided evolution. First you have to specify what unguided evolution entails and why it entails it.Joe
March 23, 2015
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"The fossil record is not evidence for unguided evolution as unguided evolution can’t get beyond populations of prokaryotes and tat is given starting populations of prokaryotes." Joe, this is exactly what Barry is talking about in this OP. the improper use by materials of the word "evidence". I don't often agree with Barry, but I do in this case. Where a differ from Barry is that he is giving the false perception that only the materialists here are guilty of this. The items I mentioned above are definitely evidence in support of unguided evolution. The fact that you don't think that the evidence is convincing doesn't change the fact that it is evidence.not_querius
March 23, 2015
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HeKS, I have come to the somewhat tragic conclusion that if you have to argue with someone that highly sophisticated semiotic systems and irreducibly complex, highly organized interdependent, highly functional and precise machines can only be reasonably explained by means of a teleological, deliberate intelligence, the person/people you are arguing with is/are well beyond reason. Ultimately, the fact that they insist there is no means by which to discern artifice from nature destroys their position that what we find in biology was generated by non-intelligent forces. They admit (even insist) they have no means to support this assertion and ridiculously claim it is our burden to prove otherwise. Thus, Darwinism is revealed as non-supportable even by its proponents. Their insistence that it is a "fact" can only be a matter of ideological zealotry; why bother debating with zealots religiously opposed to your views? I think a discussion about CSI, probabiity and other means of discerning ID artifacts from the natural would be much better advanced here and would be much more interesting than wading through post after post after post of the nonsense you get at TSZ.William J Murray
March 23, 2015
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Barry, I completely agree with the thrust of your article. I've had to have this discussion with people several times. "Evidence", properly understood, does not mean "proof", though the two are often conflated. To say that there is evidence for some proposition is to say that there are facts and states of affairs that we are aware of that, on a reasonable interpretation, make the truth of that proposition more probable than it would be if we weren't aware of those facts and states of affairs, or if they happened to be other than they are. The very notion of weighing evidence both for and against some proposition tells us that what we call "evidence" is some bit of data that is consistent with some hypothesis, or perhaps even multiple hypotheses, but is not necessarily conclusive. Otherwise it would be impossible to have evidence both for and against a proposition. When a consideration of the facts consistent with some hypothesis and those inconsistent with it leave us unable to confidently rule on the truth or falsity of the hypothesis, we don't say that there is simply a complete lack of evidence to either support or refute the hypothesis. Rather, we say that "the evidence is inconclusive". When it comes to the existence of an intelligent designer, whether that be God or someone or something else, the materialists seem to routinely take the position that if we do not have proof of the designer's existence (e.g. his/her bones, video recording of the design taking place, etc.) then it is inappropriate to identify anything as evidence in favor of the designer's existence and activity (e.g. spontaneous creation of the universe, fine-tuning of the universe for intelligent life, the discovery in living organisms of features that are otherwise uniquely associated with the products of intelligent design). With a game-plan like that, it's pretty much impossible to lose.HeKS
March 23, 2015
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AS #88
Scientific endeavour has made great strides in establishing the function of some noncoding DNA sequences any establishing that some (ERVs for example) have no function.
From Jerry Coyne, "Evolution-of-the-Gaps" and Other Fallacies (about half way down) No Spin: Endogenous Retroviral Sequences Are Important for Brain Function, and Aren't JunkHeKS
March 23, 2015
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WJM @100 Totally off topic here, but do you have any interest in joining me in a CSI discussion over at TSZ? I've been having a discussion myself with about 5 people but it's hard finding the time to keep up and I remember you being involved in a different thread here at UD. Having someone else to share the load could prevent me having to completely put the conversation on hold for another few months. Anyway, let me know. And others who are interested to join are welcome.HeKS
March 23, 2015
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AS, see 100 and 101. We will be waiting for your apology to Dr. JDD. Sadly, given your track record, the heat death of the universe will probably arrive before you do the right thing.Barry Arrington
March 23, 2015
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Ah yes of course. Silly me. Vestigial does not mean lost function. Just means reduced in size or reduced in functionality in comparison to its ancestral function. but again that assumes ancestry therefore cannot beused as evidence FOR ancestry. Which is my first point. And the second point is also factual - when evolutionists see no apparent function they attribute vestigility and are happy to use that term. And are more than happy to claim it has no function and this "disproves" a designer. This happens throughout modern scientific history. Yet this goes back to the previous point of just because we do not know function does not mean functionless. E.g. The appendix, once touted as functionless but now has known function. The ironic thing is actually many theists would agree with a devolved appendix/caecum as this is what the Christian narrative may actually predict given it claims we were once vegetarian prior to meat eaters.Dr JDD
March 23, 2015
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AS: You want some quotes? Here you go. Again, speaks to my point about twisting something to fit your theory. http://www.evolutionnews.org/2012/09/in_debate_brita_1064521.htmlDr JDD
March 23, 2015
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Leaving pseudogenes aside, it is a remarkable fact that the greater part (95 percent in the case of humans) of the genome might as well not be there, for all the difference it makes.
Richard Dawkins, The Greatest Show on EarthWilliam J Murray
March 23, 2015
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AS, I am not asking you to look up quotes you claim do not exist. @94 you acknowledged several quotes existed and then asked other people to look them up for you. That's what my 95 was directed at.Barry Arrington
March 23, 2015
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Aurelio Smith challenges:
Remind me of the ID predictions about “junk” DNA.
The prediction by Wells, Dembski and Meyer was that most of it would be found to functional.William J Murray
March 23, 2015
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AS @ 94. Then get off your lazy ass and look them up.Barry Arrington
March 23, 2015
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1. Flight has evolved independently at least four times: in insects, pterosaurs, birds, and bats. It’s interesting to consider what the transitional steps were for each clade. Certainly doesn’t involve the same “molecular solution”.
How can we test the claim that flight evolved via blind and undirected chemical processes? What is the evidence that flight can evolve from populations of flightless organisms?Joe
March 23, 2015
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AS : Did I say all convergence relies on the same molecular mechanisms? No I did not. Dawkins' quotes from the 90s are well established. Secondly several of my own predictions of "junk" DNA were said above which you have chosen to ignore or not read.Dr JDD
March 23, 2015
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AS @ 88.
Remind me of the ID predictions about “junk” DNA.
I assume you are implying there were none. I don't know if you are a liar or just ignorant. In either case, your comment does not reflect well on you. Do better.Barry Arrington
March 23, 2015
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Tabasco @ 76 WJM has already corrected your error at 76 in his post at 84. I notice that you dodged my 63. Telling. All too telling.Barry Arrington
March 23, 2015
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The very notion that anyone can determine a design to be optimal or sub-optimal is predicated upon a false premise - (1) that we know the whole purpose the design is intended to serve and (2) that we know the necessary limitations restricting the design and its physical implementation. This is why ID doesn't make a case about "optimal design"; what we consider to be bad design is still, in many cases, obviously still design.William J Murray
March 23, 2015
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Further I would like to emphasise this point: "...any “evidence” that can near equally support more than 1 competing hypothesis cannot really be used as evidence for either, in a debate between the two." More specifically, if 2 competing hypotheses predict the same observation, making that observation does not provide convincing evidence for one of those hypotheses more than the other. This is something that I've argued blue in the face to materialists and they refuse to accept it. However, their tricks are dirtier as they just change their narrative. examples: 1) convergent evolution. I have tried to argue that the design hypothesis predicts different organisms to have the same solution to similar problems. This is a design prediction. Yet evolutionists will revert to saying that darwinism predicts convergent evolution and then use that as evidence for evolution and even state that they evolved independently the same solution (amazingly to the molecular level even). This cannot be used as proof for evolution at minimum yet evolutionists will assign it as evidence. This is actually an example where the predictions are in my view unequally weighted though. For something independently of another to come to the exact same molecular solution defies probabilistic sense in many cases (unless you argue that is the only available solution) so while at best this means convergent evolution cannot be used as evidence for naturalism, at worst it us more admissible as quality evidence for common design. 2)Junk DNA. Here is an example of a dirty approach by the naturalist. We all know Dawkins et al's statements that evolution predicts that 95+% of the genome is junk. Yet at the time theists often predicted it was not ALL junk but unknown function as the design hypothesis may predict. Then we find out more and more of the genome is functional and the dirty tricks is to change the story so that the "prediction" is in line with the observation therefore it can still be used as evidence. 3) Vestigial organs/poor design prediction.Another great example - the poor design of the eye. Often stated as "evidence for no designer". The automatic and obvious result of such a prediction is that the opposite would be true. That is, if in fact it was shown to be optimal for its function, it could be used as evidence for a designer. Yet now when we see it is optimal we also see the materialist change their story. Now it is optimal for the restraints of NS etc.Another straw man and refusal to acknowledge this as evidence as it fulfills a design prediction. Vestigial organs are another good example. I can fully accept things that look suboptimal may be evidence for no designer but in amd of themselves only. If you believe in degeneration of organisms and loss of function or a type of genetic entropy from an initial superior design this is an alternative hypothesis too. More pertinently though it is better to ascribe to the thought that this appears suboptimal with our current understanding but we may not fully understand how it works so this position could change. Materialists never seem to entertain that idea though and as Dawkins proves, jump on the opportunity to boldly claim it as irrefutable evidence in their favour. Theists should also be careful not to fall into that trap as well, as often we do.Dr JDD
March 23, 2015
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tabasco said:
The way forward isn’t to scold either of them for their use of the word ‘evidence’. Your OP therefore misses the mark.
Actually, it hits that exact mark. In his O.P., Mr. Arrington brings to task those who wish to deny evidence for competing theories exists at all simply because those people are convinced of the truth/validity of their own theory. Your example, which is in the form "data X supports theory Y", is a statement of belief in a conclusion; evidence is not just raw data (Kim K's hair color, for example), but to be evidence it would also have to entail a description of how the data supports the conclusion, not just an assertion that it does. You've taken raw data on one hand and have simply associated it with a conclusion without providing the description that in any way elevates that raw data into evidence for your conclusion. It doesn't have to prove your conclusion and it doesn't have to be convincing, but to be evidence for your conclusion you at least have to show how your interpretation of the data supports your conclusion. Raw data is not by itself evidence for any proposition; it must be interpreted according to some hypothesis that shows how that data supports that proposition.William J Murray
March 23, 2015
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It is easy to descend into the mindset of "you're just as bad as us" yet that is diverting away from the point. For many years I have personally never said there was no evidence for various aspects of materialism to include darwinism however I personally have always maintained that even similar observations can be deemed as evidence for the design hypothesis and darwinism. Yet I have never met a materialist who will even accept and say "OK that also fits your hypothesis I just do not choose to believe it (be persuaded). Further, any "evidence" that can near equally support more than 1 competing hypothesis cannot really be used as evidence for either, in a debate between the two. For example take our burglary. Say there is a baseball and glove right by the broken window and you know the resident's son of the property loves to throw baseballs near the house. Further you have a neighbour testifying that 1 week ago in the afternoon they heard the boy playing baseball and heard a crash like glass smashing. Now clearly the windows as evidence for a burglary comes into question as there are 2 competing theories as to how it was broken. Without further information this isn't really good quality evidence. Likewise, take homology. This is often touted as bear proof we evolved from chimps and microbes. Yet equally if chimps microbes and man shared a common designer with a common design plan using common materials would we expect homologous aspects (e.g. phenotype and genotype) or would we expect a single designer to use common features? In fact you could argue it would be poor support for a common designer if we were radically different from other life, eg. Different genetic codes, vastly different mechanical solutions to similar problems. So how can we be expected to accept homology as evidence for common descent when equally it is evidence for a common designer How many times has the wheel been invented differently? So again my point is that I have never met an atheist who will concede this issue nor do all theists state there is absolutely NO evidence for common ancestry etc. However in the context as stated above, unless it cannot be explained by an alternative hypothesis it is poor evidence for your chosen hypothesis. Homology is a great example of this and I give up arguing that point to naturalists as they fail to even acknowledge it is at least ALSO expected from a common designer. I accept it is expected from common descent - I just do not accept it is convincing as for reasons given above. but again I come back to the point of the big bang as evidence for a start and causal agent to bring about the universe. What "evidence" was there for the alternative hypothesis? Ie. For steady state? Infinite always existing universe? Was that driven by evidence or was it driven by the need to exclude a creative type event I.e. A beginning? I think it I was the latter and not much has changed in the bias of science and materialism.Dr JDD
March 23, 2015
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NQ, you already say you do not read what you set out to snip and snipe at. BA has already corrected you on it, and I have confirmed it. You continue to willfully ignore duties of care thus confirming that you have no credibility. KFkairosfocus
March 23, 2015
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not_querious:
The fossil record, comparative anatomy, molecular biology, radiometric dating, etc. are all evidence of this.
The fossil record is not evidence for unguided evolution as unguided evolution can't get beyond populations of prokaryotes and tat is given starting populations of prokaryotes. Evos are such pathetic liars.Joe
March 23, 2015
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Evolve, Any Bayesian will tell you that evidence for a hypothesis is any observation which increases the probability of that hypothesis. Got to run now.vjtorley
March 22, 2015
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