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Insane or Simply Wrong?

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David W. Gibson asks some interesting questions in a comment to johnnyb’s last post.  First, he writes concerning Darwinism:  “How could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after decades of detailed study, could STILL fall victim to the ‘transparently ludicrous’?”

Let me answer this question by referring to a couple of similar examples from hisotry.

In the second century Ptolemy devised his system of cosmology.  In this system each planet moves along a “deferent” and an “epicycle.”  The planet’s movement along these two paths cause it to move closer to and further away from the earth.  For the system to work, the planets sometimes had to slow down, stop, and even move backwards.

Tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world ascribed to Ptolemy’s cosmology from the publication of Almagest around 150 until well after the publication of De revolutionibus orbium coelestium in 1543.

But this system of deferents and epicycles is “transparently ludicrous” you say.  And so it is in retrospect.  Nevertheless it reigned nearly unchallenged for well over 1,000 years.

Here’s another example.  Humorism.  “This theory holds that the human body was filled with four basic substances, called humors, which are in balance when a person is healthy, and all diseases and disabilities result from an excess or deficit of one of these four humors. These deficits could be caused by vapors that were inhaled or absorbed by the body. The four humors were black bile, yellow bile, phlegm, and blood.”  Wikipedia.

Humorism was the prevailing medical orthodoxy from the time of Galen (circa 150 AD).  It was not definitively displaced until 1858 when Rudolf Virchow published his work on cellular pathology.

Your phrase “transparently ludicrous” comes readily to mind when we think about humorism now.  Yet it was the prevailing orthodoxy among tens of thousands of brilliant medical practitioners for nearly 2,000 years.

Now suppose one of Copernicus’ critics (and he had many; his theory was not accepted immediately) had said, “Hey Copernicus, how could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after 1,393 years of detailed study, could still fall victim to  a theory of cosmology that, if you are correct, is transparently ludicrous?”

Or suppose one of Virchow’s critics had said, “Hey wait a minute!  How could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after nearly 2,000 years of detailed study, could still fall victim to a theory of medicine that, if you are correct, is transparently ludicrous?”

I will put it to you David.  How should Copernicus or Virchow have answered those questions?

Finally you write:  “Centuries of scientific progress can only be explained by mass insanity. Does that work for you?”

First, I don’t know where you get “centuries.”  Origin was published in 1859.  That’s 153 years ago by my count.  Darwin has over 1,000 years to go before he reaches the same status as Ptolemy or Galen based on mere “age of the theory.”

Second, “mass insanity” is a nice strawman.  No one has suggested that someone who believes in Darwinism is insane.  They are simply wrong.

Were all cosmologists from Ptolemy to Copernicus insane?  No, they were simply wrong.

Were all doctors from Galen to Virchow insane?  No, they were simply wrong.

The essence of your argument for Darwinism is:  “All the smart people believe it; it must be true.”  I hope you understand now that that argument is not as airtight as you seem to think it is.

Comments
While I don’t agree with that as a component of the characterization, I certainly think that it requires more words than that. If he had said “something small” it would also be true. In order for it to be a specification, it must be much more specific. . . . The question is, at what point is it sufficiently specified but not over-specified?
OK, when you said he had "bungled it," I thought you had a fundamental disagreement with his methodology or logic. It sounds like what you're saying above is simply pointing out the fact that defining precisely what is being specified is a first-order challenge. I certainly agree with that, and have critiqued Dembski myself for being a bit loose in pinning down the precise function/object/system being specified. In fairness, though, I don't think his purpose was to provide a comprehensive once-and-for-all specification of a particular system, rather to illustrate the concept and how it can be attacked objectively and mathematically. My experience with Dembski's examples is that he almost always over-simplifies what has to be specified (just as you have stated with the flagellum). As a result, his assessments/calculations typically are more favorable to mechanistic processes than reality would suggest. Of course, he would argue that this is a strength of his position, not a weakness.Eric Anderson
May 18, 2012
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Eric - Specification: The Pattern That Signifies Intelligence In it, he equates the flagellum to a "bidirectional rotary motor-driven propeller", and used that to calculate the specificational complexity of the flagellum. While I don't agree with that as a component of the characterization, I certainly think that it requires more words than that. If he had said "something small" it would also be true. In order for it to be a specification, it must be much more specific. But at some point, you are over-specifying. The precise precision of atoms isn't really relevant, and, if you specified them, it would take a lot of words, thus making the specification bigger. The question is, at what point is it sufficiently specified but not over-specified? A similar question is being addressed by Ewert and Marks at the Engineering and Metaphysics conference. I posed him a similar dilemma when he submitted his abstract, and you should come to the conference and see if he has a good response!johnnyb
May 18, 2012
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johnnyb: "In fact, Dembski did attempt to apply his test, and I think he bungled it." Just curious, what attempt/incident are you referring to here?Eric Anderson
May 18, 2012
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I answered some of your questions on the other thread. "I humbly confess that I am not an evolutionist. I am a retired software engineer. I never took a biology course in my life." Nice! If you're near Oklahoma, you might enjoy coming to the Engineering and Metaphysics Conference. A lot of what we are talking about is related to software development. My source for genetics being an anti-evolution argument is simply the original paper on genetics by Mendel - Experiments in Plant Hybridization. Note especially what Mendel is wanting to conclude from his experiments:
Gärtner, by the results of theses transformation experiments, was led to oppose the opinion of those naturalists who dispute the stability of plant species and believe in a continuous evolution of vegetation. He perceives in the complete transformation of one species into another an indubitable proof that species are fixed with limits beyond which they cannot change. Although this opinion cannot be unconditionally accepted we find on the other hand in Gärtner's experiments a noteworthy confirmation of that supposition regarding variability of cultivated plants which has already been expressed.
In other words, while it isn't a 100% proof, the idea of gene pool indicates a long-term stability and limit to variation. Evolution didn't like the idea of long-term stability, which is why they went with Darwin's blending inheritance for almost a half century before the Mendelists manage to persuade them otherwise. That was my main point - a well-evidenced, experimentally-directed idea took 50 years before it was mainstream, simply for the fact that it didn't accommodate Darwin's speculations well enough. "I learned a lot from this paper. But I’m sure you know much more than I about this." I wouldn't necessarily say that. My own reading is limited and not necessarily scholarly. But nonetheless, the paper addresses the *Church's* response to ideas, while my comments were on scientific thought at large. Again, most people have a historical bias which puts church=ancient-culture, but as I said, religious views have generally been much more varied than usually credited. "Again, a source for this would help me out. My reading is, naturalists started asking not just how something came to be, but how they could TELL how something came to be. Which led to physical testing." Exactly. That was my point. They pulled in their notion of testing from materials science, and presumed that it would work correctly. Ernst Mayr both at once pointed out the difficulty of this new method and accepted it epistemically as being equivalent with that of physical testing. I think that it is epistemically problematic because (a) you are limited in the kinds of causes you presume, (b) you are limited in the number of variables you can control, and (c) you are limited to the number of "experiments" (Mayrs word for this, NOT mine) you can perform. "“Philosophical naturalism”, as I understand it, would hold that anything that cannot be tested, cannot be true or meaningful. And I don’t think anyone believes this." I'm using a slightly different definition of the word. By philosophical materialism (I think "naturalism" is confusing - sometimes I err and use that word anyway, but I digress), I mean that all events that occur are ultimately material events. Methodological materialism says that, methodologically, science can only investigate material causes/events. In order to investigate the past, you have to investigate all potential causes, and therefore, when applying science to the past you move from methodological materialism to philosophical materialism. "Science CAN determine whether a claim is testable." Technically, nothing that happened in the past is experimentally testable. "the very strength of the scientific lies in its limitations" I agree partially. However, scientists themselves rarely limit themselves to these limitations, and for good reason - reality is bigger than that, and everyone wants to know about reality. I think what we need to do instead is simply scope out the methodologies and their epistemic boundaries. Then it doesn't matter that we use the term "science" for it or not. "Testing lies at the heart of science," I agree with that generally, and wouldn't seek to replace it. Testability is actually at the heart of ID. However, if you put this as an ultimate mandate, then you would have to cut out large parts of modern science, such as string theory and cosmology. A great paper which shows the ultimate limitations on the testability of cosmology is The Return of a Static Universe and the End of Cosmology. "And empirical tests are inherently materialistic." I think this is our primary point of disagreement. And I think you will find even some physicists are disagreeing with you here - some versions of quantum theory promote the mind to a fundamental place in causation (i.e. the Copenhagen interpretation). But more directly to your point, it depends on what you mean by "materialistic". The common myth is that materialism keeps on explaining more and more of nature. The truth, as I have pointed to, is that instead physics just keeps on absorbing more and more spiritual ideas and finding ways to test them. Non-local causation, time as a contingent part of nature, non-deterministic causality - all of these began as spiritual ideas. What made them physical was not that all-of-a-sudden we changed the ideas, but rather someone had the insight on how to systematize them and test them. Now, in order to be more exact, I have looked for formulations of materialism which carefully depict the line between materialism and non-materialism. I'm curious, would you agree with these definitions of materialism, or do you have a better one? "As I recall, Dembski was challenged by many to determine whether some object submitted to him was designed. Not a hard task, right? Just use his methodology to decide whether design can be inferred or not. And Dembski refused to even make the attempt, and for an excellent reason – he knew he couldn’t do it!" I don't entirely disagree with you here, except for the implication. "Not a hard task, right?" Dembski is one person working alone. Take String Theory as another example - you have an entire arm of physics working on something for decades that hasn't produced anything yet. But then Dembski is the one criticized because he hasn't by himself finished making his ideas fully testable? This seems to me a huge double-standard. I'll even go one further. In fact, Dembski did attempt to apply his test, and I think he bungled it. So what? That's part of the research process. I think The Design Inference is a huge step forward, not the last word on the subject. I think his Active Information concept is a much more useful one, and one which I have been actively working on applying to biology. I think that perhaps you are looking at Intelligent Design the way that you look at research projects that have been going on for 50 years with lots of funding. Sure, at that point, enough people have worked on it that it's testability and usability is undeniable. But I think you'll find that in a lot of ideas and a lot of excellent branches of science, they didn't start out so cleanly. The difference is that the mountain of prejudice against ID prevents ID'ers from moving forward. Dembski's Polanyi center was shut down because of Darwinist screeds, and they've tried to do the same thing with the Evolutionary Informatics lab. How far do you think other branches of biology would go if we shut down all of their labs?johnnyb
May 18, 2012
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There's some more possibilities in addition to being wrong or insane, we are told. One who does not believe in Darwinism could also be ignorant, or stupid, or wicked.Eugene S
May 18, 2012
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Sure, there are thousands of brilliant researchers who believe in “evolution.” But the harmony quickly evaporates as soon as we take the simple step of asking what it is precisely that the various individuals mean by “evolution.” There is hardly a single aspect of macro-evolutionary theory that isn’t subject to significant debate.
My reading is that this is true at the margin, not considered in large. If we were to examine several competing positions among different biologists, we'd find broad agreement about nearly everything determined so far. As an analogy, you will find plenty of dispute among physicists about exactly what causes gravity. There are multiple competing models, and general relativity is still incompatible with quantum mechanics. But emphasizing this range of models in an effort to persuade non-physicists that gravity doesn't exist or is so poorly described as not to refer to anything, misses the point. It's quite true that there is "hardly a single aspect of" gravitational theory that isn't subject to significant debate. But what is agreed on is still significant enough so that physicists aren't basically confused about what gravity is. Same with biology.
Further, those “tens of thousands of research efforts” are supportive only of basic micro-evolutionary phenomena, about which, I agree, there is some consensus, but which unfortunately do not support the broader evolutionary claims.
I'm not sure what is being claimed here. Again, the big picture of evolution is like a picture on your computer screen - a composite of pixels, or individually very restricted research results. The broader theory, then, is an attempt to find an explanation that best fits all these results and isn't inconsistent with any of them. This is a hard task, but can be done. Certainly it's always possible that some alternative general explanation of all of these results can be constructed. But this does NOT mean current theory fails to explain them, because it does. They DO support the broader evolutionary claims, but they might ALSO support some other model.
Finally, at the far end of the macro spectrum, such as in OOL, it is most certainly not the case that the more one researches the more one is convinced of the ‘evolutionary’ paradigm. Typically quite the opposite. Those who continue to propound materialist mechanisms in OOL do so, not because of the evidence, but due to philosophical leanings and in spite of the evidence.
I would say that in general terms, all of the various OOL efforts presume some sort of cumulative feedback effect, which is inherently evolutionary in nature. I think a strong case can be made that "those who continue to propound materialist mechanisms in OOL" do so because ONLY materialist mechanisms can be examined and tested. As was discussed earlier, this is a limitation of the scientific method - it is not competent to address non-materialistic claims whether or not those claims are correct. Let's phrase it a bit differently. Let's say that OOL in reality resulted from Divine Miracle. Science, in looking elsewhere, is barking up the wrong tree. But in that case, science is forever incapable of finding this out, because the answer lies outside the boundaries of science. In this way, science is like the drunk looking for his keys under the light rather than where he probably lost them, because he can only see what's under the light. Science is constrained by the very definition of scientific evidence, to seek answers in empirical observation according to the rules of science. If the answers can't be determined that way (and many cannot), science is simply the wrong tool. This is not a philosophical blind spot at all. This is a well-recognized limitation of the scientific method. In a very real sense, in the world of science, if it ain't material, it ain't evidence.David W. Gibson
May 18, 2012
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This has not been my experience, I must admit. I know that biology is messy, and covers a lot of territory. No simple theory can possibly cover it all, and no complex theory (especially one in a constant state of flux at the margin) is going to be easy to corral. Nonetheless, there is some broad consensus about a great deal, and that consensus rests on tens of thousands of detailed research efforts.
The broad consensus exists in inverse proportion to the specificity of the discussion. Sure, there are thousands of brilliant researchers who believe in "evolution." But the harmony quickly evaporates as soon as we take the simple step of asking what it is precisely that the various individuals mean by "evolution." There is hardly a single aspect of macro-evolutionary theory that isn't subject to significant debate. Further, those "tens of thousands of research efforts" are supportive only of basic micro-evolutionary phenomena, about which, I agree, there is some consensus, but which unfortunately do not support the broader evolutionary claims. Finally, at the far end of the macro spectrum, such as in OOL, it is most certainly not the case that the more one researches the more one is convinced of the 'evolutionary' paradigm. Typically quite the opposite. Those who continue to propound materialist mechanisms in OOL do so, not because of the evidence, but due to philosophical leanings and in spite of the evidence.Eric Anderson
May 17, 2012
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Johnnyb:
David - I think that in addition to Barry’s fine analysis, you have other parts of history quite mistaken.
I probably do. I am not an historian.
First of all, I think that you, like many evolutionists,
I humbly confess that I am not an evolutionist. I am a retired software engineer. I never took a biology course in my life.
inappropriately conflate genetics with evolution.
I do not know anything about genetics, so I didn't mention it.
In fact, historically, genetics was conceived as an anti-evolution argument. In fact, it was the theory of evolution that impeded its embrace by the biological community.
Interesting. Do you have a source for this so I can read up on it?
The idea of relatively static genes being inherited in whole pieces was decidedly aristotelian in thought. Evolution did eventually swallow genetics, but to say that evidence and research on genetics is de facto evidence and research about evolution is simply misguided both logically and historically.
Your terminology baffles me here, and I blame the ambiguity of our language! I THINK you are saying that at the time genes were discovered, of course models of evolution did not include them, and they didn't fit the model easily. Eventually, the model had to change to accommodate genes. Is that it? I do know enough to understand that genetics aids in a detailed understanding of the mechanisms involved. Darwin, knowing nothing of genetics, could see the broad outlines of inheritance and selection, but how it was implemented in biology he had no clue.
“unwillingness to believe what science has determined” Who is science, and who gets to decide what science has determined? This is decidedly authoritarian.
Well, I suppose so. Who gets to decide is basically the body of all researchers actively working and publishing in that particular subfield. When all or nearly all of them come to agree on something, then (at least provisionally) that's the "decision." But I would say it's authoritarian not because of personalities, but because that's what the research says, after it's been tested many different ways.
“How could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after decades of detailed study, could STILL fall victim to the “transparently ludicrous”?” Barry has done a good job picking this apart.
I responded to him in another post on this thread. In a nutshell, I would never consider any durable well-considered position to be "transparently ludicrous". Wrong, perhaps, or partially wrong, or maybe misinterpreted. But people are not so stupid as to believe the "transparently ludicrous" about ANYTHING, as far as I'm concerned.
But I want to add a few comments. FIrst of all, most biologists, especially through history, have only worked with living organisms. Relatively few have worked with building machines from inert matter. My children, for instance, think that it must be easy to put together computer software, because they have grown up in a world surrounded by computer software. They have no idea of the intricacy required to put together a software system from inert matter because everything they’ve seen is already put together. Therefore, those who see biology from the inside are the ones likely, like Dawkins, to conclude that eyes must be relatively easy to evolve because they appear everywhere and in all different modalities.
Well, "relatively" easy compare to what? Eyes may be very very difficult to evolve, but do so anyway because sight (or even light sensitivity) is so very useful that it's strongly selected on those rare occasions when improvements come along.
Therefore, it is easy to claim that certain mutations are haphazard, simply because you don’t know the entire range of possibilities for the mutation spectrum. This makes it easy to fall prey to the idea that a non-selective and stochastic pattern is a haphazard one, when in reality it is highly constrained, and simply hedging for future possibilities.
There are perfectly valid statistical techniques to make this determination. Careful investigation can in fact map the probability distributions, and can determine that beneficial mutations are far less frequent than neutral mutations or deleterious mutations. I know enough statistics to grasp this, I think. As an organism becomes increasingly well adapted to its environmental niche, the probability of some mutation being beneficial goes down. But maybe I'm not following your meaning here?
“And yet, historically, the early investigators didn’t approach evolution or geology tabula rasa, they began with the confident expectation of creation and a young earth. ” I’m don’t think this is quite as true as you say, and I think that statement actually reads back into history modern mythologies and metanarratives that just aren’t true. But I will agree that it was certainly more common than today. However, I have found in my own studies that religious views are at all times varied and is at no time as uniform as many people try to make it out (either the religious people trying to claim a consensus on church history or the anti-religious folks who view history as science winning over superstition).
I learned a lot from this paper. But I'm sure you know much more than I about this.
Anyway, I think the core cause of the shift is that, as science moved into natural history, it needed a methodology. Lacking good alternatives, it used methodological materialism as a basis for inferences about the past.
Again, a source for this would help me out. My reading is, naturalists started asking not just how something came to be, but how they could TELL how something came to be. Which led to physical testing.
Therefore, since natural history, being history, encompasses all of the causes in the past, and, since science only had the knowledge to deal with materialistic ones, the conflation of natural history and materialistic methodology unwittingly led away from methodological naturalism into philosophical naturalism.
Well, science has some fairly strict boundaries. A hypothesis must be capable of being tested, and failed hypotheses must be rejected. And empirical tests, by their very nature, are materialistic. But I think you have pushed a bit too far here, at least from my limited knowledge. "Philosophical naturalism", as I understand it, would hold that anything that cannot be tested, cannot be true or meaningful. And I don't think anyone believes this. The power of the scientific method really lies in its limitations - it can't investigate, and therefore can't "know", a great deal that's undoubtedly both true and important. But recognizing a limitation doesn't mean ignoring it or dismissing it. This limitation on science is very real.
There are three ways to solve the problem. The first is to simply declare that science doesn’t deal with reality, but is only more like a game we play with certain rules. I don’t hold think this is a good option, and I don’t imagine you do either.
You're right, I think it's silly. Science deals with PART of reality, and does so very well within the limits of its competence.
The second way is to say that there are some areas which can’t be investigated scientifically. Therefore, there are certain domains of knowledge which science can’t know.
I agree with this. Just because something can't be falsified doesn't mean it's wrong.
In addition, since science does not have a methodology for determining what is within our outside its bounds, this cannot be determined scientifically. Therefore, the truthfulness of every scientific statement is conditional upon its being within science’s proper domain.
I'm not sure I understand quite what you intend here. Science CAN determine whether a claim is testable. If it's testable, it's a scientific claim. It might be false, of course. So I would not say the truthfulness is conditional on being in the scientific domain, but the testability is.
I find this problematic, because it is too eerily close to the first one. It limits what science can do, and scientists would probably be left without a good methodology for determining what is inside or outside its scope.
In practice, this doesn't seem to be a problem. If a test can be proposed, it's in scope. If no test can be proposed, it's out of scope.
The third option is the one I like – get rid of the methodological restrictions. Instead, open up the field for methodologies which are not materialistic.
I think this is a poisonous temptation, because the very strength of the scientific lies in its limitations. Testing lies at the heart of science, and this is true because testing is the ONLY way to resolve the disputes that are a fact of life at the cutting edge of science. And empirical tests are inherently materialistic. So freeing science from materialist methodology is like freeing language from relying on words or other symbols of communication.
Dembski’s “The Design Inference” was a great first step in that direction. Another great step, I think, is the upcoming (shameless plug alert!) Engineering and Metaphysics Conference.
I agree that Dembski's efforts are a step in the direction you propose, but I don't think your direction is workable. As I recall, Dembski was challenged by many to determine whether some object submitted to him was designed. Not a hard task, right? Just use his methodology to decide whether design can be inferred or not. And Dembski refused to even make the attempt, and for an excellent reason - he knew he couldn't do it! Scientists, like creationists, are notorious for assuming their conclusions. Where the difference lies is, in science one is required to TEST those assumptions, and not merely assert them. And this is a really unpleasant requirement, because in practice most of these assumptions turn out to be WRONG, and the scientist must admit it and try again. Without empirical tests, no scientist would ever be wrong. But none would ever be right either. And so, in exchange for being very probably correct about a great deal, science must accept being silent about a great deal more.David W. Gibson
May 17, 2012
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Let me answer this question by referring to a couple of similar examples from hisotry. In the second century Ptolemy devised his system of cosmology. In this system each planet moves along a “deferent” and an “epicycle.” The planet’s movement along these two paths cause it to move closer to and further away from the earth. For the system to work, the planets sometimes had to slow down, stop, and even move backwards. Tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world ascribed to Ptolemy’s cosmology from the publication of Almagest around 150 until well after the publication of De revolutionibus orbium coelestium in 1543. But this system of deferents and epicycles is “transparently ludicrous” you say. And so it is in retrospect. Nevertheless it reigned nearly unchallenged for well over 1,000 years.
Well, not exactly, but that may not be the point. The complex system of epicyles, moving backwards, etc. is actually correct, and based on quite good observations. None of these observations changed when heliocentrism was adopted. This was simply looking at the data from a viewpoint that simplified the system enormously. Certainly I do not find the geocentric viewpoint to be "transparently ludicrous", and indeed it is not It WORKS. And in fact any point can be selected as the center of the system, provided the selected point does not require anything to exceed lightspeed to fit the model.
Your phrase “transparently ludicrous” comes readily to mind when we think about humorism now. Yet it was the prevailing orthodoxy among tens of thousands of brilliant medical practitioners for nearly 2,000 years.
I cannot lay claim to that phrase, because it belongs to Gil Dodgen. Indeed, I find the phrase misleading, because (in my opinion) ANY explanation that survives for long periods of time MUST have something powerful to recommend it. People are empiricists at heart, they are curious, they give a lot of thought to these things. So I personally would not dismiss any durable and commonly held view to be "transparently ludricous", if only because it does unjustified insult to all those who pondered it carefully for so long.
Finally you write: “Centuries of scientific progress can only be explained by mass insanity. Does that work for you?” First, I don’t know where you get “centuries.” Origin was published in 1859. That’s 153 years ago by my count. Darwin has over 1,000 years to go before he reaches the same status as Ptolemy or Galen based on mere “age of the theory.” Second, “mass insanity” is a nice strawman. No one has suggested that someone who believes in Darwinism is insane. They are simply wrong.
I had meant to refer to the advent of what we might consider science, which is usually dated roughly 300 years ago. I spoke of mass insanity, because I think this is what would be required to adhere to the "transparently ludicrous" for any period of time. As I said above, I do not think those whose models were so drastically improved, were insane nor that the models they held were "transparently ludicrous". However, I have been under the strong impression that the advent of what developed into the enterprise of science made a qualitative change in how knowledge has been understood. My reading leaves no doubt in my own mind that the growth in human knowledge of just about everything has been explosive since science was invented. And I think this is important. Unexamined ideas that SEEM "self-evident" can clearly last a long time. Detailed examination using what really has been a revolutionary method (actual testing, and discarding wrong ideas!) is something very different. It's an entirely different posture toward knowledge.
As regards Darwinism, there is little evidence that ‘thousands of the most intelligent humans’ have actually engaged in ‘decades of detailed study’ and concluded that Darwinism is right. First of all, this smacks of the old “all the smart people agree” consensus fallacy.
This fallacy may be a danger, I agree. But the fallacy that scientific knowledge is not possible, the opposite side of this coin, is also a danger. Anyway, I didn't say they "concluded that Darwin is right". I was trying to say that they have subjected tens of thousands of related hypotheses to careful tests. And those that pass the tests get published where opponents construct different tests. On the ground, science is a competitive enterprise, with lots of disputes and arguments. Getting a finding universally accepted is a very high bar. Yet, over time, knowledge grows and consensus is reached because of the sheer number of tests that have been passed. I don't see science as a bunch of self-styled geniuses sitting around in armchairs seeking consensus as to one speculation or another. It's a very hands-on business.
More pragmatically, on closer inspection we note at least three things:
(i)I agree that research papers tend to be very narrowly focused for several reasons - time and budget constrants, controlling for as many variables as possible. In science, the Big Picture develops one pixel at a time; (ii) I strongly agree with you here. In grade school, we (should) learn the simple principles of evolution, but the reality (as is typical in biology) is very messy, and just about ANY model simple enough to grasp, is too simple to include a lot of what's important. And this is what research is all about; (iii)This point is dicey. Those who have not studied these subjects in great detail necessarily have less knowledge of them, while those who HAVE spent the time and effort can be said to have a vested interest. So when two intelligent people disagree and only one of them is really knowledgeable about the merits in the subject area, do we find him more persuasive because of his greater knowledge, or less persuasive because of his vested interest? Ad absurdum, I suppose we could argue that the most ignorant among us are the most trustworthy in their opinions.
But with respect to evolutionary theory there is good reason to question whether and how much of a ‘consensus’ ever existed or even exists today. Indeed, when inconsistencies are pointed out, evolutionists are quick to circle the wagons and acknowledge that the details are not known, but it must still be true anyway, because that is the a priori philosophical position.
At the margin, of course there is no consensus. Again, that's what research is for - to resolve disputes and generate knowledge. I personally have never seen anyone argue both that the details are not known (they often are not), but that "it" must be true anyway. Does "it" refer to the details, or to the overall pattern? I always try to be careful of the danger of thinking that because we do not know everything, therefore we do not know anything. As for an a priori philosophical position, my observation is that this is what those whose views differ ALWAYS see. Perhaps this is human nature. "Why would anyone disagree with me? It can only be their ignorance, malice, or a priori philosophical error! It can't be ME!" Anyway, hopefully we all understand that to creationists, materialists are regarded as crushed under the same philosophical baggage that materialists see happening to creationists. BOTH sides see the other as blinded by non-negotiable, axiomatic a priori philosophical balls and chains.
Further, evolution is an exceedingly slippery word, flexible enough for virtually everyone to agree that some aspect of ‘evolution’ is true. But the idea that there is some broad consensus among ‘thousands of the most intelligent humans’ about evolution — exactly what is meant by it, when it works, how it works, what its capabilities and limits are — is a myth.
This has not been my experience, I must admit. I know that biology is messy, and covers a lot of territory. No simple theory can possibly cover it all, and no complex theory (especially one in a constant state of flux at the margin) is going to be easy to corral. Nonetheless, there is some broad consensus about a great deal, and that consensus rests on tens of thousands of detailed research efforts.
“After all, nobody doubts any explanation, no matter how tenuous, unless they have in mind some explanation they consider superior.”
This is simply not true. I don’t even see why someone would say this. I doubt things all the time based on the simple reason that the explanation given is simplistic and ignores basic reality. To give a general example – without proposing alternatives, I can usually find sufficient reason to doubt most sweeping claims by any political party. Many people in biology doubt the Darwinian story without having one of their own. Why? Because the idea simply doesn’t add up. It is simplistic, and demonstrably false.
I think this is important enough to delve into a bit further. I'll start by saying I stand by my claim. If an explanation is regarded as "simplistic", we recognize that this is a relative term. Simplistic compare to WHAT? That alternative is hidden there. If an explanation is regarded as "ignoring basic reality", it is being compared with something regarded as being more realistic - and there's the alternative. Most people doubt the sweeping claims of politicians because they compare those claims to personal experience with political claims - the alternative. As for people doubting that the mechanisms of evolution have been properly identified, well. If we're talking about every detail being identified, then no, this isn't true of ANY scientific theory, and never will be. But frankly, my observation has been that the general IDEA of evolution, that biological organisms gradually change over time for a variety of reasons and in a variety of ways, tends to be rejected for religious reasons. This may not be explicitly articulated, but "intelligent design" implies an intelligent designer, and evolutionary theory does not incorporate one. Creationism doesn't have to be a competing scientific theory to constitute a perfectly acceptable alternative to how we got here, and why. So I'll concede that I didn't express myself as well as I could have, though I don't see how to improve it. To me, rejection on religious grounds means rejection in favor of a religious alternative - which need not be a theory, or even address a single aspect of the broad field of evolution or even biology.David W. Gibson
May 17, 2012
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David - I think that in addition to Barry's fine analysis, you have other parts of history quite mistaken. First of all, I think that you, like many evolutionists, inappropriately conflate genetics with evolution. In fact, historically, genetics was conceived as an anti-evolution argument. In fact, it was the theory of evolution that impeded its embrace by the biological community. The idea of relatively static genes being inherited in whole pieces was decidedly aristotelian in thought. Evolution did eventually swallow genetics, but to say that evidence and research on genetics is de facto evidence and research about evolution is simply misguided both logically and historically. "unwillingness to believe what science has determined" Who is science, and who gets to decide what science has determined? This is decidedly authoritarian. "How could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after decades of detailed study, could STILL fall victim to the “transparently ludicrous”?" Barry has done a good job picking this apart. But I want to add a few comments. FIrst of all, most biologists, especially through history, have only worked with living organisms. Relatively few have worked with building machines from inert matter. My children, for instance, think that it must be easy to put together computer software, because they have grown up in a world surrounded by computer software. They have no idea of the intricacy required to put together a software system from inert matter because everything they've seen is already put together. Therefore, those who see biology from the inside are the ones likely, like Dawkins, to conclude that eyes must be relatively easy to evolve because they appear everywhere and in all different modalities. Therefore, it is easy to claim that certain mutations are haphazard, simply because you don't know the entire range of possibilities for the mutation spectrum. This makes it easy to fall prey to the idea that a non-selective and stochastic pattern is a haphazard one, when in reality it is highly constrained, and simply hedging for future possibilities. "And yet, historically, the early investigators didn’t approach evolution or geology tabula rasa, they began with the confident expectation of creation and a young earth. " I'm don't think this is quite as true as you say, and I think that statement actually reads back into history modern mythologies and metanarratives that just aren't true. But I will agree that it was certainly more common than today. However, I have found in my own studies that religious views are at all times varied and is at no time as uniform as many people try to make it out (either the religious people trying to claim a consensus on church history or the anti-religious folks who view history as science winning over superstition). Anyway, I think the core cause of the shift is that, as science moved into natural history, it needed a methodology. Lacking good alternatives, it used methodological materialism as a basis for inferences about the past. Therefore, since natural history, being history, encompasses all of the causes in the past, and, since science only had the knowledge to deal with materialistic ones, the conflation of natural history and materialistic methodology unwittingly led away from methodological naturalism into philosophical naturalism. There are three ways to solve the problem. The first is to simply declare that science doesn't deal with reality, but is only more like a game we play with certain rules. I don't hold think this is a good option, and I don't imagine you do either. The second way is to say that there are some areas which can't be investigated scientifically. Therefore, there are certain domains of knowledge which science can't know. In addition, since science does not have a methodology for determining what is within our outside its bounds, this cannot be determined scientifically. Therefore, the truthfulness of every scientific statement is conditional upon its being within science's proper domain. I find this problematic, because it is too eerily close to the first one. It limits what science can do, and scientists would probably be left without a good methodology for determining what is inside or outside its scope. The third option is the one I like - get rid of the methodological restrictions. Instead, open up the field for methodologies which are not materialistic. Dembski's "The Design Inference" was a great first step in that direction. Another great step, I think, is the upcoming (shameless plug alert!) Engineering and Metaphysics Conference.johnnyb
May 17, 2012
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Here's the rest of David's comment, just for reference: And yet, historically, the early investigators didn’t approach evolution or geology tabula rasa, they began with the confident expectation of creation and a young earth. At that time, most of them WERE creationists, and they found the evidence on the ground deeply disturbing. It simply could not be reconciled with their beliefs. Today’s scientific establishment didn’t yet exist – most of these people were amateurs and we would call them part-time naturalists. No religion, no state sponsorship, no high priesthood, and nearly all of them would today be regarded as “dissenters”. Creationism bergan as the default. Given that starting point, how could current scientific understandings have developed so wrongly, especially to the point where anyone could consider the entire scientific enterprise (of hypotheses, null hypotheses, careful methodology, neutralizing of conformation bias, detailed publication, peer review, replication, consiliance, etc. etc. etc.) to indicate a worldwide conspiracy of closed minds? How could it ever have come to pass that tens of thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after decades of detailed study, could STILL fall victim to the “transparently ludicrous”? How could it be that those who can see through this transparency are ALL members of a single religious sect, and have nothing else in common? There sure isn’t much money in bilogy! And all of that notwithstanding, I notice that the dissenting argument presented is nothing more than simple unwillingness to believe what science has determined. It sounds fantastic, therefore it must BE fantastic. Centuries of scientific progress can only be explaned by mass insanity. Does that work for you?johnnyb
May 17, 2012
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Excellent post Barry !Christian-apologetics.org
May 17, 2012
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". . . thousands of the most intelligent humans in the world, after decades of detailed study . . ." As regards Darwinism, there is little evidence that 'thousands of the most intelligent humans' have actually engaged in 'decades of detailed study' and concluded that Darwinism is right. First of all, this smacks of the old "all the smart people agree" consensus fallacy. More pragmatically, on closer inspection we note at least three things: (i) most of the intelligent folks who publicly subscribe to Darwinism spend their time focused on very narrow aspects of biology that have nothing to do with the natural history of life and don't have any real insight into the detailed workings of evolutionary processes; typically they just assume that their colleagues must have this all figured out, (ii) many evolutionists who do study the detailed claims of Darwinism for some time start to learn about all the holes and questions and typically soften their stance; there are many examples of noted evolutionists who, while publicly still paying obeiscance to the greater claims of evolution, quietly question how much is really understood and whether there might be other important things at work, and (iii) many very intelligent people from a variety of disciplines who don't have a vested career interest in promoting evolutionary theory have studied the evidence in detail and have concluded that the evolutionary paradigm is wanting. So, yes, it is true that many thousands of people can be mistaken, as in the examples provided above by Barry. But with respect to evolutionary theory there is good reason to question whether and how much of a 'consensus' ever existed or even exists today. Indeed, when inconsistencies are pointed out, evolutionists are quick to circle the wagons and acknowledge that the details are not known, but it must still be true anyway, because that is the a priori philosophical position. Further, evolution is an exceedingly slippery word, flexible enough for virtually everyone to agree that some aspect of 'evolution' is true. But the idea that there is some broad consensus among 'thousands of the most intelligent humans' about evolution -- exactly what is meant by it, when it works, how it works, what its capabilities and limits are -- is a myth.Eric Anderson
May 17, 2012
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Another example - even more graphic. Aristotle believed that a thrown object travels horizontally as far as momentum takes it, then drops vertically to earth. Scientists studied and theorised about this particular problem for about 2 millennia, during which millions of things were thrown at animals, people, castles and even scientists. But Aristotle was only shown to be wrong about it in the late mediaeval period. The only explanations can be (a) trusting authority and (b) looking in the wrong place for truth.Jon Garvey
May 17, 2012
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