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Holy Rollers, Pascal’s Wager, If ID is wrong it was an honest mistake

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A scandalous documentary about Christian gamblers was released in 2012 with me listed in the credits. 🙂

The documentary is about a group of Christians, the Holy Rollers, that took the casinos for 3.5 million dollars. Myself, by comparison, I’ve accumulated a relatively paltry sum of $30,000 or so over the years. I’ve been tossed out of casinos and abused because I tried to use my brain in the casino. Casinos, like Darwinists, will say: Expelled No Intelligence Allowed!.

I took Turtle Creek Casino in Michigan for $6,000 before they illegally backroomed me. Similarly, I was forcibly escorted out of Hollywood Tunica (thankfully Hollywood got sued for $729,000 for pulling such stunts on other honest players like myself in an illegal way). My photo was then circulated to various casinos via the S.I.N. network:

American casinos refer to these local agreements they have with each other to immediately fax information on suspicious or undesirable players as a S.I.N. (Surveillance Information Network), an appropriate acronym.

I then started wearing quasi disguises and countermeasures to foil the S.I.N network and Facial Recognition Systems. My favorite quasi disguise was the pimp look. Unfortunately, my pimp persona got busted, and the casinos started circulating photos on the S.I.N. Network of me in my pimp outfit…I was walking into casinos, and they were already waiting for me. I had to call it quits…

And as somewhat documented in Lauren Sandler’s book Righteous: Dispatches from the Evangelical Youth Movement in the course of my casino adventures, I was pulled over for suspected drug trafficking which I described at UD in 2006 New Face of Evangelical Christianity

She reported that I pay my bills by playing cards. Well, I did not say that, but I did tell her over dinner that I won about $1,400 over the previous few weekends when I visited the casinos. She kidded me that it was rent money, but that was her perception, and it was nothing I said seriously.

She reported that I traveled to upstate New York for a card game after an IDEA meeting. That was true. But she missed the really juicy part of the story. After visiting the casino, I was put under arrest for 45 minutes by state troopers and border patrols for suspected drug trafficking up near Akwesasne, New York. About 8 squad cars descended on me. That was really cool. They released me after they determined I was just a harmless tourist….

Apparently the police thought I completed a drug deal at the casino. Come to think of it, some guy with a Mowhawk and lots of jewelry was at my table betting $400 a hand….

But my casino adventures pale in comparison to the accomplishment of my dear friend and mentor Michael Canjar professor of mathematics. He took Turtle Creek for $60,000 before they showed him the door. Canjar’s total winnings were around $250,000, a large portion of which was donated to charity…

Canjar was professor at a Catholic school in Detroit, and he managed to even recruit one of the nuns and other professors in his holy crusade against the evil casinos. Canjar reminds me of Father Fahey:

BOSTON — When the Rev. Joseph Fahey sat at the blackjack tables, he once said, it was “all for the greater glory of God.”

The Rev. Fahey, assistant for finance of the New England province for the Jesuit order, donated tens of thousands of dollars to his order with the help of card counting — the same skills that landed him on blacklists at casinos in Las Vegas and Atlantic City, N.J.

Card counting involves keeping track of the proportion of high and low cards as cards are dealt from a deck.

The Rev. Fahey died Wednesday of an apparent heart attack at the age of 65.

“Many Jesuit missions owe a great debt to him and his abilities at the card table,” said John Dunn, who worked for the Rev. Fahey at Boston College High School.

As president of the school from 1988 to 1998, he boosted its endowment by 500 percent, financing an athletic center, library and computer laboratory.

He had a doctorate in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, was ordained a priest in 1968, and was a teacher and administrator at Holy Cross College and Boston College.

He treated Boston College students to a lesson on card counting on the last day of each semester.

But Canjar and Fahey’s crusade against the evil casinos was out done by the crusade waged by the Holy Rollers:

Beyond the Holy Rollers there were several generations of the MIT Blackjack Team, Tommy Hyland’s Teams, Ken Uston’s Teams and others. I heard of one non-blackjack team once referred to as “punters” who supposedly made 2.5 billion, but their methods are guarded secrets…

Curiously, one skilled gambler by the name of Kevin Blackwood really likes ID:

There are many things about God and the Bible I still don’t quite comprehend, but I do believe firmly in an intelligent design behind the universe. I recommend Michael Behe’s excellent book, DARWIN’S BLACK BOX, for more information on the irreducible complexity of the universe.

How is it possible to beat a game of pure chance? It can be done if the rules of the games allow you to gain an advantage through Expectation Values (or Expected Values). The principle is known as Statistical Arbitrage.

Mathematician Blaise Pascal is considered the father of the notion of Expectation Values (or Expected Values). Pascal was a skilled gambler, and the notion of expected values was originally applied to gambling but has now found application in economics, finance, physics (particularly quantum mechanics).

Pascal is one of the most brilliant, and most tormented, figures in the history of mathematics. Forbidden by his father to study mathematics… was troubled by constant illness, including recurrent migraines and what proved to be cancer of the stomach. His various contacts with illness and death from 1646 on, and his own near death in a carriage accident late in 1654, together with the influence of a morbidly religious sister, turned him toward the Jansenist version of Catholicism. On this, his mental energies were increasingly expended.

http://www.umass.edu/wsp/statistics/tales/pascal.html

The notion of expectation values has played a role in a minor scuffle over ID. See: The Law of Large Numbers vs. Keiths, Eigenstate, and my other TSZ critics and SSDD: a 22-sigma event is consistent with the physics of fair coins?.

So how does this apply to ID?

If ID is wrong, it was at least an honest mistake because even Dawkins will admit, the world looks designed.

Some of the greatest scientists who have ever lived ­ including Newton, who may have been the greatest of all ­ believed in God. But it was hard to be an atheist before Darwin: the illusion of living design is so overwhelming.

Richard Dawkins
You ask the questions

But in view of expectation values, what is the better wager? Darwin or Design? To answer that question, let me make a variation of Pascal’s Wager. At a personal level, suppose one accepts ID and it turns out to be false. Suppose further that a person presumed the Intelligent Designer was God, but in the end there was no God, no ID. What is the loss? But if ID is true, and further if the Intelligent Designer is God, so much might be gained. Will you throw your soul away because of the flawed ideas of Darwin, Dennett, and Dawkins?

Even though I’m a Doubting Thomas ID-ist and creationist, despite all the pain in the world, I find it too hard to believe the universe was some mindless accident. From all that I’ve learned in the world of skillful wagering on uncertain truths (of which there are many in skilled gambling), at a personal level, as far as which wager has the most favorable expectation value, I’d take Design over Darwin any day…

Image courtesy of Salvador Cordova.
me on the Las Vegas Strip near Mandalay Bay Casino, with Luxor and Excalibur Casinos in the background

PS

What was one of the nicest experiences in my casino adventures. One that ranks highly are the intelligently designed Fountains of the Bellagio Casino set to Rachmaninoff’s Rhapsody:

Comments
F/N: I should say that the answer to MF's agument is that Pascal spoke from the perspective of a successful seeker. His point was that, were the evidence to be seen as in equipoise, on balance of expectations -- and recall enough to give general balance is all that is needed -- the sensible bet is that God is. Then, if one is sincerely open, one can actually personally meet God (as have millions across the ages -- evidence that is unduly discounted by too many skeptics) and that is decisive. For myself I add that the further evidence is that God is a serious candidate necessary being, so on first principles of right reason including PSR, if God is possible, he is ACTUAL, and in reality the one who doubts God's reality needs to show that a being with the NB characteristics of God is impossible. Post Plantinga's free will defense, that is not even seriously argued. Cf here on. KFkairosfocus
June 29, 2013
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The coin toss example and binomial distribution was to show the chance hypothesis can be reasonably rejected in specialized cases without appeals to CSI or the formal explanatory filter.
But evolutionary theory is not a theory of pure chance. It is a reiteration of variation in the genome by "sifting" due to natural selection. But that does not answer my question. How does coin tossing advance a hypothesis of design?Alan Fox
June 29, 2013
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I am curious as to what coin tossing has to do with any supposed theory or hypothesis of “intelligent design”.
It illustrates the ability to reject the chance hypothesis. No free lunch theorems show on average Darwinian Evolution should not do better than the chance hypothesis on average. Population and neutral evolution show Darwinian evolution is mostly moot since most of the genome isn't under selection anyway. The coin toss example and binomial distribution was to show the chance hypothesis can be reasonably rejected in specialized cases without appeals to CSI or the formal explanatory filter. Coin toss examples have analogy to the case for design in the homochirality of biology. It is not an airtight case, but neither is it something an OOL researcher or Dariwnist should casually dismiss. It is a serious challenge to chemical evolution. It also has relevance to dating of the geological column based on racemic chemistry of dead proteins. Biotic material discovered is not sufficiently racemic to indicate the geological column is actually as old as claimed. The presence of C-14 in the fossils also cast doubt on the dating of the column. The binomial distribution and coin toss examples illustrate the problem of chirality in this case as well. If the geological column is young, Darwinian evolution has even less time to work, and it should be viewed as false as a result.scordova
June 29, 2013
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If someone asked me why I spend time on the net arguing ID, it is in part because I've had doubt about its truthfulness. The process of debate has reassured me of some ideas, cast doubt on others, and falsified still others. The net has been a public diary of my search for truth... Right now, I find it personally difficult to think the universe and life were mindless accidents. I don't think Darwinian evolution is true, and I don't have reason to believe OOL will ever be solved.scordova
June 29, 2013
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I am impressed by your gambling exploits
Thanks.
– less so by your understanding of Pascal’s wager.
In Casino Gambling, the distribution function (binomial in the case of blackjack), is well known, and so are the payoff tables. FWIW, the Casino wins 50% of the hands, the player 42.5% of the hands, and the rest are ties. The player is able to gain an advantage by: 1. basic rules that allow larger payoffs on wins such as blackjack, and the famous "Double Down" 2. using information of cards dealt to change the probability estimate of win in the binomial distribution in Pascal's Wager, the distribution function and payoff table is completely unknown, however, it might be correct to say, if one supposes a distribution function and payoff table he can live his life or search for ID more consistent with his unproven (possibly wrong) distribution function. That is all that can be said, it does not make the presumed distribution function correct, but it does provide a way for measuring the consistency of one's life against one's beliefs.
Suppose there were a designer God but he/she/it valued above all else intellectual honesty. I would be condemned to hell fire for pretending I believed in a God designer when in all honesty I don’t.
I accept you honestly don't believe. I'm sorry I have no good answers for where you are in your beliefs. I do thank you for taking the time to read over the years what ID proponents have offered. You've given us a good share of your personal time. If its not too personal, and because I want to understand, not condemn, if you believe there is no God, why spend time debating ID proponents? For myself, if I believed there was no God, I'd probably be out there partying or something more enjoyable than the shouting matches on the net, spending time arguing with people (ID proponents and creationists) who are presumably deluded. I don't believe in astrology, but I don't spend time arguing with astrologists. Not to offend those of other faiths, I'm a Presbyterian, but I don't go around arguing with those from other denominations. If there is no God and Darwinian evolution is true, I don't understand why there is a crusade to crush ID except maybe if one is an evolutionary biologist and his paychecks are in jeopardy. The irony is on the net, and in popular culture, evolutionary biologists don't show up to debate nearly as much as I would expect. In Louisianna, its Zack Koplin, and freshman history major. I cited John Hartnett, John Sanford, Ben Carson as examples of the irrelevance in my opinion of evolutionary theory to operational practice. Even if ID is wrong, it doesn't seem to have done much to hinder scientific progress, contrary to the claims of some, it only has made evolutionary biologists (who can't even resolve their phylogenetic trees) a little frustrated.
Suppose there were a designer God but he/she/it valued above all else intellectual honesty. I would be condemned to hell fire for pretending I believed in a God designer when in all honesty I don’t.
I have no answer, but perhaps that's why I posted this essay, in the hope maybe someone might reconsider and be saved from hellfire. If people, after reading ID literature, still decide they honestly don't believe, then at least my conscience is clear that I tried. In some forms of Christian theology, belief in God is ultimately through grace, not reason. May God's grace be upon you. Salscordova
June 29, 2013
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I am curious as to what coin tossing has to do with any supposed theory or hypothesis of "intelligent design".Alan Fox
June 29, 2013
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Sal wrote:
The notion of expectation values has played a role in a minor scuffle over ID.
But not as a point of dispute. The dispute was over Sal's false accusations and his failure to retract them.keiths
June 28, 2013
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I am impressed by your gambling exploits - less so by your understanding of Pascal's wager. Suppose there were a designer God but he/she/it valued above all else intellectual honesty. I would be condemned to hell fire for pretending I believed in a God designer when in all honesty I don't.Mark Frank
June 28, 2013
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