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Tracking Covid-19 Apr 3 . . . are we peaking (for this wave)?

As we continue to track, let some graphs tell a story, first up is Euro-CDC: That looks like a peaking, certainly it is not exponential surging in new cases. World in Data, on a 3-day, rolling avg will smoothen, highlighting key countries (including the USA): That looks like a flattening, trending to turning over on the driving impulse. Let’s see doubling times, which will track comparable exponential growth: Those were in the 2 – 3 day band previously. Now, the by country log-lin deaths, with the same 2,3,5 day doubling time rays since five cases as previous: Likewise, per country log-lin cumulative cases, with the same usual 2,3, 5 and 10 day doubling time from 100 cases rays: We see Read More ›

“The whole nine yards” cough-sneeze game . . . is 6 ft social distance enough?

Yes, it is gross but necessary. Sorry in advance. The question of social distance is back on the table, at least according to the UK’s Daily Mail (reporting today on Dr Fauci’s nuanced answer to a question . . . and no, this isn’t Babylon Bee spoofing on April Fool’s Day): Illustrating, i/l/o a 2014 study — early progress of a super-sneeze or cough: Notice, the drifting cloud? Here’s MIT, in 2014: The next time you feel a sneeze coming on, raise your elbow to cover up that multiphase turbulent buoyant cloud you’re about to expel. That’s right: A novel study by MIT researchers shows that coughs and sneezes have associated gas clouds that keep their potentially infectious droplets aloft Read More ›

MIT is testing an emergency, US$100 ventilator (regular ones cost up to US$ 50k)

As MIT suggests, Almost every bed in a hospital has a manual resuscitator (Ambu-Bag) nearby, available in the event of a rapid response or code where healthcare workers maintain oxygenation by squeezing the bag. Automating this appears to be the simplest strategy that satisfies the need for low-cost mechanical ventilation, with the ability to be rapidly manufactured in large quantities. However, doing this safely is not trivial. Use of a bag-valve mask (BVM) in emergency situations is not a new concept. A portable ventilator utilizing an ambu-bag was introduced in 2010 by a student team in the MIT class 2.75 Medical Device Design (original paper here and news story here), but did not move past the prototype stage. Around the Read More ›

Hydroxychloroquine wars, 5: The China tests (and report, Feb. 18)–U/D: FDA Emergency Use Authorisation announced . . .

Now that France has approved Hydroxychloroquine after Prof Raoult’s second test, it is helpful to go back and roll the tape. We need to understand why we are where we are now, over a month after China — which, unsurprisingly, did a lot of the early work on Covid-19 that we are all relying on now — published information on promising drugs. Here is Clinical Trials Arena, February 18th: 18 February 2020 News Coronavirus: Chloroquine yields positive data in Covid-19 trial Early data from clinical trials being performed in China has revealed that chloroquine phosphate could help treat the new coronavirus disease, Covid-19. China National Center for Biotechnology Development deputy head Sun Yanrong said that chloroquine, an anti-malarial medication, was Read More ›

BREAKING: After Prof Raoult’s 78 of 80 success ratio test, France approves [Hydroxy?]Chloroquine for Covid-19

France 24, English has the vid: This is a breakthrough of hope for those who may fall victim to the disease. HT, Vivid. I link the Daily Wire report Vivid links, given the onward confirmation: France Officially Sanctions Drug After 78 Of 80 Patients Recover From COVID-19 Within Five Days By  Amanda PrestigiacomoDailyWire.com The French government has officially sanctioned chloroquine, a drug often used to fight malaria, for certain patients infected with the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19. “The French government has officially sanctioned prescriptions of chloroquine to treat certain coronavirus patients,” France 24 English reported Saturday. “This ensures continued treatment of patients who have been treated for several years for a chronic condition with this drug, but also allows a Read More ›

Hydroxylchloroquine wars, 4: Didier Raoult strikes again, with 80-patient test

BREAKING: Professor Raoult has released a further result. Using Google Translate on two tweets: Our two articles published this evening help to demonstrate:      1. The effectiveness of our protocol, on 80 patients.      2. The relevance of the association of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, thanks to research carried out in our P3 containment laboratory. https://t.co/Y91bsFOgB2      – Didier Raoult (@raoult_didier) March 27, 2020 and: New article published online by my teams: in vitro demonstration of the hydroxychloroquine / azithromycin synergy to counter the replication of SARS-COV2      In vitro testing of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin on SARS-CoV-2 shows synergistic effecthttps: //t.co/KUaag6N5FF      – Didier Raoult (@raoult_didier) March 27, 2020 Here is a chart in one of the Twitter threads, which seems Read More ›

An ER Doctor in NO suggests a clinical pattern for covid-19

Here we go: I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know. Clinical course is predictable. 2-11 days after exposure (day 5 on average) flu like symptoms start. Common are fever, headache, dry cough, myalgias(back pain), nausea without vomiting, abdominal discomfort with some diarrhea, loss of smell, anorexia, fatigue. Day 5 of symptoms- increased SOB, and bilateral viral pneumonia from direct viral damage to lung parenchyma. Day 10- Cytokine storm leading to acute ARDS and multiorgan failure. You can literally watch it happen in a matter of hours. 81% mild symptoms, 14% severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, 5% Read More ›

Hydrochloroquine wars, 3: Belgium and Bahrain weigh in as UK PM Johnson tests positive and Dr Zelenko’s video vanishes

Fresh developments, even as in a now all too familiar development, a politically incorrect video vanishes from YouTube. The Boris Johnson case shows just how contagious this virus is, as he joins a list of leading politicians and members of their families. We definitely need a good treatment and we need it fast. In that light, let us see what is being picked up from Belgium: Belgium’s Federal Agency for Medicines and Health Products (FAMHP) is reserving hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, for patients who really need it in light of the new coronavirus (Covid-19). The drug, marketed under the name Plaquenil, has entered clinical trials in France and the United States, and its results against Covid-19 are promising, according to Read More ›

Hydrochloroquine wars, 2: a NY physician speaks of “hundreds” of successful patients, a Governor bans use in Nevada

First, Dr Vladimir Zelenko speaks: While, the Governor blocks: Sisolak signed an emergency order earlier Tuesday barring the use of anti-malaria drugs for someone who has the coronavirus. But Sisolak’s order does not apply to patients who are hospitalized with coronavirus. The order restricting chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine came after President Donald Trump touted the medication as a treatment and falsely stated that the Food and Drug Administration had just approved the use of chloroquine to treat patients infected with coronavirus. Sisolak said in a statement that there’s no consensus among experts or Nevada doctors that the drugs can treat people with COVID-19. Actually, as Pharmacy Times reported, Thu March 19: Pharmacy Times FDA Announces Two Drugs Given ‘Compassionate Use’ Status Read More ›

BREAKING: Is the 1934 Bayer anti-malarial, Chloroquine, a potential Covid-19 breakthrough treatment?

And, why is that (which was announced yesterday by Mr Trump) not top- of- fold headline news everywhere? Bayer, US, has announced, March 19: >>Bayer today announced it is joining the U.S. Government’s fight against COVID-19 with a donation of 3 million tablets of the drug Resochin (chloroquine phosphate). Resochin, a product discovered by Bayer in 1934 and indicated for prevention and treatment of malaria, also appears to have broad spectrum antiviral properties and effects on the body’s immune response. New data from initial preclinical and evolving clinical research conducted in China, while limited, shows potential for the use of Resochin in treating patients with COVID-19 infection. Bayer in recent days has been in talks with the White House, HHS, Read More ›

SIR — “Simple” Basics of Epidemics

Here is a simple SIR model — Susceptible- Infected- Removed: Here, “removed” can be by recovery or death. Obviously parameters are not exact so the next level would explore randomised changes in possible values and time varying models; noting particular clusters that give dramatic outcomes. The S(t) line is an inverted cumulative case curve — if people don’t flee. So C(t) = 1 – S(t) is cumulative cases, a logistic curve. C(t) will at first look exponential until resistance and running out of susceptible population leads to saturation. A supplementary equation could partition recovery vs death, and we can work back from observed patterns with infection and deaths. Further analysis could stratify the population as susceptibility varies with factors such Read More ›

Betelgeuse begins to re-brighten

. . . and that, at about the suggested time for an up-turn. Astronomy telegram clip: >>The Fall and Rise in Brightness of Betelgeuse ATel #13512; Edward Guinan, Richard Wasatonic (Villanova University),Thomas Calderwood (AAVSO) and Donald Carona (Texas A& M University) on 22 Feb 2020; 12:59 UTCredential Certification: Edward Guinan (edward.guinan@villanova.edu) As previously reported (see ATel #13365, #13410 and #13439), the red supergiant Betelgeuse has been undergoing an unprecedented decrease in its visual (V) brightness since October 2019. Photometry secured over the last ~2 weeks shows that Betelgeuse has stopped its large decline of delta-V of ~1.0 mag relative to September 2019. The star reached a mean light minimum of = 1.614 +/- 0.008 mag during 07-13 February 2020. This Read More ›

The spreading of corona virus

UK’s Daily Mail reports: They also provide a map: A concern is that mild cases are masked under the common cold, and that the incubation period may be up to four weeks or thereabouts, not the fortnight that has been used hitherto. They are not finding a “patient zero” for some of these outbreaks, which is why there is talk of un-traceability and climbing towards pandemic. On the design front there is speculation that the genome has traces of engineering, and that people may have not been incinerating animals in a biological lab near Wuhan, but illegally disposing of them in the bush meat trade. Speculation, not confirmation. It will be interesting to see the criteria by which they might Read More ›