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Tourbillon

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William Paley published Natural Theology: or, Evidences of the Existence and Attributes of the Deity, Collected from the Appearances of Nature in 1802. In 1801, Abraham Louis Breguet, called the “watchmaker of kings and the king of watchmakers,” patented a watch mechanism called the Tourbillon, which is French for “whirlwind,” revolutionizing watchmaking. The tourbillon has approximately 100 parts, and weighs only 0.296 grams.

Among the many Breguet clients have been folks such as Marie Antoinette, Napoleon Bonaparte, Sir Winston Churchill, and George Washington.    

William Paley considered the conclusion of Design appropriate if one had stumbled upon a watch in the woods and wondered of its origin:

In crossing a heath, suppose I pitched my foot against a stone, and were asked how the stone came to be there; I might possibly answer, that, for anything I knew to the contrary, it had lain there forever: nor would it perhaps be very easy to show the absurdity of this answer. But suppose I had found a watch upon the ground, and it should be inquired how the watch happened to be in that place; I should hardly think of the answer I had before given, that for anything I knew, the watch might have always been there…Every indication of contrivance, every manifestation of design, which existed in the watch, exists in the works of nature; with the difference, on the side of nature, of being greater or more, and that in a degree which exceeds all computation.

And of course he was right. Microbiology has confirmed that the cell is much, much more complicated than even the tourbillon, and on a much smaller, nano-technological scale. A modern formulation of the argument, given what we know of microbiology and the complexity of the cell, could be:

But suppose I had found a cell upon the ground, and it should be inquired how the cell happened to be in that place; I should hardly think of the answer I had before given, that for anything I knew, the cell might have always been there.

Paley also claimed that something might come to be known about the intentionality of the Watchmaker by his design:

. .when we come to inspect the watch, we perceive. . . that its several parts are framed and put together for a purpose, e.g. that they are so formed and adjusted as to produce motion, and that motion so regulated as to point out the hour of the day; that if the different parts had been differently shaped from what they are, or placed after any other manner or in any other order than that in which they are placed, either no motion at all would have been carried on in the machine, or none which would have answered the use that is now served by it. . . . the inference we think is inevitable, that the watch must have had a maker — that there must have existed, at some time and at some place or other, an artificer or artificers who formed it for the purpose which we find it actually to answer, who comprehended its construction and designed its use.

The watchmaker theme is also put forward by Richard Dawkins with his 1986 book The Blind Watchmaker. The concept of a “blind watchmaker” is intended to illustrate how complexity is brought about from a step-wise evolutionary process that didn’t have the complexity as a goal.  Those familiar with the complexity of watches will not believe that they can be brought about blindly, as, hopefully, this video illustrates. This watch has a tourbillon escapement. Who would like to venture the inference that this watch was constructed blindly?

Comments
Nakashima,
The chance of rolling a 20 on a D10? That is your analogy? Please, this is a serious discussion.
I am being serious, so lets get real. In reality, chance is not some limitless variable that is unrestricted by the laws of physics. I'll try for a better analogy then. It would be more like rolling a 20 on a D20 where the 20th side is the size of a pinhead according to an infinitesimally small chance in relation to physical/chemical laws and unfavorable environmental factors in nature. Note that this scenario is not just a randomly computer generated number, but an actual die that must follow the real laws of physics when you roll it. Now with an intelligent agent involved, he might be able to go through a series of events to set the die upright on its small side, this would represent the delicate fine tuning required for such an event to occur whereas blind, rough natural forces would be unable to articulate such a series of precise events. Either that or upon finally reaching the target, there would mounds of failed trials as evidence that blind rough forces did in fact create such finely tuned systems.
We know the error rate for DNA copying. Error exists, as Mr Kairosfocus has taught me to say. It is one engine of evolution.
According to Dr. John C. Sanford, it's not a creative engine for much at all, other than accumulating errors until they are finally expressed in the form of tragic phenotype catastrophes.
Your appeal to complexity is inappropriate. The source of the variation that drives evolution is for the most part unintentional.
Again, only if you assume no role of intelligence being involved. Heck, even with intelligence involved the most our best and brightest can account for in artificial solid state protein synthesis are proteins that are limited to 70-100 amino acids in length. When you take a look at the fact that the longest existing protein(Titin) is 34,450 amino acids in length, then you really begin to wonder how much more intelligence is required, or how many failed trials you'd see on the way to such a natural anomaly that provides critical utility within our muscles.PaulN
June 15, 2009
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Whoa. Are you seriously suggesting that blind, senseless nature is somehow smarter than we are? For that is what your argument implies.
Nobody is purporting that nature is somehow acting as an agency, or with "intelligence" as Paul likes to say. That's the creationist position. Perhaps it would be scientifically cogent to define exactly what "intelligence" is? By your definition s a rabbit intelligent?RDK
June 15, 2009
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Mr Joseph, That is true near ecological stability. Just add asteroid! ;) Or, one of those pesky copying errors, the gene duplications and subsequent drift, the viral infection, the symbiosis... which gives you a large change in phenotype for a small change in genotype.Nakashima
June 15, 2009
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Heritable variation and selection work, but they don't do very much. Populations tend towards a wobbling stability- slight variations only and always around some norm.Joseph
June 15, 2009
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Mr PaulN, The chance of rolling a 20 on a D10? That is your analogy? Please, this is a serious discussion. Your appeal to complexity is inappropriate. The source of the variation that drives evolution is for the most part unintentional. More complex things break more often. We know the error rate for DNA copying. Error exists, as Mr Kairosfocus has taught me to say. It is one engine of evolution. There is a germ of an idea in what you are saying that you might expand upon - that GAs might not scale well as complexity rises. This has been a problem with other computer science areas, such as AI. However, if you want to pursue this idea be aware that GAs have already been tested up to genome sizes of one gigabit in size.Nakashima
June 15, 2009
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djmullen You wrote (#3):
While we’re on the topic, may I suggest one big difference between human designed things and evolved things? The products of design are invariably simple things compared to products of evolution. I could design a watch. Most of us could. But none of us is anywhere near capable of designing a rabbit.
Whoa. Are you seriously suggesting that blind, senseless nature is somehow smarter than we are? For that is what your argument implies. I tend to judge by deeds, not words. If someone told me they were very clever, I'd say, "All right. Show me what you can do." If nature can produce much more complex designs than our best scientists can, then shouldn't we say that nature is cleverer than they are? There is another way of looking at the complex designs that abound in the natural world. One could view them as the products of a Superior Intelligence, which created the natural world. Measured against the works of this Intelligence, our human designs do indeed look childishly simple. But then, that way of looking at things wouldn't be science, would it? (Wink)vjtorley
June 15, 2009
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The thing about truth is that it doesn't collapse when subject to any amount of scrutiny whatsoever, so if Darwinian evolution is the fact that it claims to be, then it should hold up from every possible angle.PaulN
June 15, 2009
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Nakashima, I'm arguing that biology is the only exception in which these type of systems purportedly arise naturally in reality without intelligence. Biological systems are orders of magnitude more complex and specified than that of a tourbillon in that there is an incredibly densely packed multidimensional code that defines the multitude of function found within the cell. Now given a virtual reality in a computer simulation where the laws followed are defined by the user/designer, especially in the case of CDK, the laws are literally constrained to an inevitable successful outcome. The thing about CDK's program is that there are no real physical factors for the individual watch parts to consider, such as gravity, molecular composition, chemical compatibility, auto-catalytic potential, and spacial discrepancy on a 3 dimensional plane. In the most basic sense, if I set up a random number generator that gives me numbers between 1 and 10(user defined law), then I'll eventually have to get an 8. However lets say that the numbers 1-10 represent all possible purely naturally derived configurations for any given molecular system according to what we observe in empirical reality. Now lets say that a fully formed cell is the equivalent of a 20, how long will it take to generate that number given said naturally derived conditions? It's equivalent to how much time would it take for an infinite amount of monkeys banging on an infinite amount of keyboards given an infinite amount of time to produce a sonnet by Shakespeare. The constraints in this case would be defined by the shape of monkey hands and fists being superimposed over a keyboard and realizing that you'd get an infinite repetition of similar groups of keys being mashed resulting in an eternity of gibberish. It's these reality constraints that Darwinists fail to realistically quantify, leaving for virtual simulations to prove talking points that are appealing at the surface level, but collapse when subject to rigorous scrutiny.PaulN
June 15, 2009
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Joseph (#12) wrote: "Another exmple is the eye/ vision system. Even though we know much, much more than Darwin did about these systems the evidence for their “evolution” is the same- that is we observe varying degrees of complexity in existing systems and we “know” the original population(s) didn’t have one, therefor they all evolved!! Pathetic at best." Please take a look at the October 2008 special issue of Evolution: Education and Outreach available at http://www.springerlink.com/content/m3k441k67q3n/ - it contains a series of articles on eye evolution.PaulBurnett
June 15, 2009
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Mr PaulN, Dang, my link-fu must be down. Yes, it was the cdk007 video. Glad you have heard of it. The author of the video addresses thoses issues in the video itself. He's trying to demonstrate evolution not abiogenesis. The interaction of watch parts isn't analogous to biological reality, but the choice of analogy is Paley's. This is similar to objecting to any GA demonstrating evolution. Are you really arguing that heritable variation and selection work everywhere else except biology? What is the point of all the Demski and marks LCI work then? Why write MESA?Nakashima
June 15, 2009
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Not to mention that wretched *Coldplay* song. Gaah.herb
June 15, 2009
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Mr. Nakashima, Your link isn't working. But please tell me it isn't the computer simulation designed by "CDK" showing how you can get a working clock after many trial and error replications given pre-existing parts that interact with each other that is in no way analogous to biological reality.PaulN
June 15, 2009
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Lenoxus,
You say “sheer amount of trial and error” as though every new organism ’starts fresh’ with a totally scrambled genome
That certainly is not what I was implying. I understand that the proposed changes are meant to be very subtle and span a gross amount of time and replications.
We have indeed found fossils of organisms with genetic diseases that deformed the skeletal structure, but by and large these are not the sort of harmful changes that selection spends its time eliminating, but much subtler things.
I think you actually have it backwards. Most subtle changes fly under the radar of natural selection, leaving significant survival-based changes to be selected for or against. Selection happens at the gene level, which can effect anything from subtle variations to significant body structures. My qualm is that seeing as most of these subtle variations that are supposed to drive evolution forward fly under the radar of selection, why don't we see them add up until they eventually reach any grossly malformed end results in parts of the organism or the organism as a whole. It is these errors in the trials that I would expect to see a lot of, given the proven slightly deleterious nature of accumulative mutation.
I’m pretty sure you’re thinking of an experiment that involved gene grafting, not something that just happens with fruit flies every so often.
Actually it was an experiment involving radiation to grossly increase the mutation rate in fruit flies and see what would happen after many many generations. Unfortunately this experiment only showed that grossly increased mutation rates do in fact accumulate subtleties until eventually you have expressed monstrosities.PaulN
June 15, 2009
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PaulN,
On that note, does anyone ever think about why we don’t see a myriad of failed body plans in the fossil record? Just to clarify what I mean by failed body plans, I’m talking about legs sticking out of eyeballs, duplicate abdomen, and any other extra parts that would severely hinder the survival of a given species ...
Great question. If ToE works like the Darwinists claim, the fossil record should be packed with these sorts of things. All I've heard of along these lines is some human fossils with arthritis.herb
June 15, 2009
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Lenoxus, The immune system is still on the list as no one knows how or even if one could evolve on a planet in which no living thing had one. Another exmple is the eye/ vision system. Even though we know much, much more than Darwin did about these systems the evidence for their "evolution" is the same- that is we observe varying degrees of complexity in existing systems and we "know" the original population(s) didn't have one, therefor they all evolved!! Pathetic at best.Joseph
June 15, 2009
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djmullen, Nice bedtime story (about the rabbits). Do you have any scientific data to support it? IOW how was it determined that rabbits owe their collective common ancestry to some unknown population(s) of single-celled organisms via an accumulation of genetic accidents?Joseph
June 15, 2009
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PaulN:
Just to clarify what I mean by failed body plans, I’m talking about legs sticking out of eyeballs, duplicate abdomen, and any other extra parts that would severely hinder the survival of a given species (also including but certainly not limited to a duplicate pair of non-functional wings).
Changes that extreme do occur, but very rarely. When we talk about "mutation", we're talking about much smaller changes. We have indeed found fossils of organisms with genetic diseases that deformed the skeletal structure, but by and large these are not the sort of harmful changes that selection spends its time eliminating, but much subtler things. You say "sheer amount of trial and error" as though every new organism 'starts fresh' with a totally scrambled genome, when in actuality the changes needed to go from one body plan to another occur in very tiny intervals. I suppose that in the great span of time, millions of such 'monstrous' organisms have existed; however, only a few have fossilized (I know, I know, how very convenient). In any case, I don't see much evidence that fruit flies in labs naturally develop such saltational changes — with the "legs in eyeballs" thing, I'm pretty sure you're thinking of an experiment that involved gene grafting, not something that just happens with fruit flies every so often.Lenoxus
June 15, 2009
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PaulN (8 and 9), Of course we see millions of failed body plans in the fossil record. Try Tyrannosuarus rex, any other dinosaur you care to mention (birds possibly excepted) and for that matter trilobites, graptolites, eurypterids, anomalocaris....the list goes on. There's a good reason why we don't see many (if any) fossils of insects with legs sticking out of eyes (not eyeballs - insects have compound eyes). The answer is even within your own question - it "severely hinder[s] the survival" of the organism. In fact, they hinder the survival of the organism to such an extent that they don't usually survive to reproduce at all, let alone leave enough descendants to ultimately - many generations later - leave a new species. Legs out of eyes, duplicate abdomen, and other extreme mutations such as those, is NOT how speciation occurs, as you have been told many times. That is a creationist bogeyman that has no basis in reality.Gaz
June 15, 2009
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Isn't this the watchmaker video you should be linking to for this discussion?Nakashima
June 15, 2009
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Just to clarify what I mean by failed body plans, I'm talking about legs sticking out of eyeballs, duplicate abdomen, and any other extra parts that would severely hinder the survival of a given species (also including but certainly not limited to a duplicate pair of non-functional wings).PaulN
June 15, 2009
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After all, we do know the impotent results of the fruit fly experiment in showing the immense creative power of proposed darwinian mechanisms. On that note, does anyone ever think about why we don't see a myriad of failed body plans in the fossil record? Just given the sheer amount of trial and error that would be required to reach our current status of complex, specified, and interdependent functional systems, one would expect to see millions upon millions of failed trials in the fossil record akin to all of the failed fruit fly body plans no?PaulN
June 15, 2009
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djmullen @3,
While we’re on the topic, may I suggest one big difference between human designed things and evolved things?
Sure. Suggest away.
The products of design are invariably simple things compared to products of evolution.
Only, only if you first assume that evolution random variation + natural selection is even capable of producing highly complex and specified nano-systems in reality(In other words not loaded simulations directed towards a desired result). The problem is that we haven't observed anything to this extent in reality.
I could design a watch. Most of us could. But none of us is anywhere near capable of designing a rabbit.
Hence the inference to a higher intelligence that is capable of designing said rabbit with optimal features beyond what one would expect from random variations + natural selection.PaulN
June 15, 2009
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Whoa, whoa, djmullen, rabbits? Everyone already knows that rabbits evolved, and the whole ID movement is well-agreed on that common descent thing. In fact, common descent has absolutely nothing to do with evolution — if it somehow did, IDers would look mighty silly railing against 'evolution'. Here is my official list of biological structures that truly have yet to be explained by evolution: • the flagellum • the immune system • various unspecified forms requiring some impossible increase of information — bird wings, or something? For all items on the list, the reasonable alternative given is "poof". Thank you for your time.Lenoxus
June 15, 2009
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Where did that rabbit come from again?djmullen
June 15, 2009
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djmullen, ------"Darwin studied Paley in college and admired his book and thinking when he was young. But as he studied the world, he found that Paley got it wrong, so he changed his opinion of Paley’s theory." It turns out that Paley got it right, and Darwin got it wrong.Clive Hayden
June 15, 2009
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While we're on the topic, may I suggest one big difference between human designed things and evolved things? The products of design are invariably simple things compared to products of evolution. I could design a watch. Most of us could. But none of us is anywhere near capable of designing a rabbit.djmullen
June 15, 2009
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And if I found a rabbit upon the heath and inquired how that rabbit came to be there, I would find that it came from another rabbit, which in turn came from another rabbit, which in turn came from another rabbit ... until I noticed that one rabbit came from a creature that was very much like a rabbit, but not quite. And if I followed that not-quite a rabbit back, I would find that it came from another not-quite a rabbit, which in turn came from another not-quite a rabbit, etc until I found that a not-quite a rabbit came from a very not-quite a rabbit. And so on and so on until I eventually traced that rabbit back to some sub-microscopic reproducing molecule. Darwin studied Paley in college and admired his book and thinking when he was young. But as he studied the world, he found that Paley got it wrong, so he changed his opinion of Paley's theory. A lesson for us all.djmullen
June 15, 2009
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Beautiful.Mapou
June 15, 2009
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