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Dr Zelenko on Israel National News, May 21, 2020 — forthcoming paper ~ two weeks?

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Dr Zelenko expects to be in publication along with some German colleagues, in about two weeks. In the following video (pardon quality issues):

. . . he asks, in effect, isn’t it standard to treat a disease as early as possible, so why the strange difference here? He makes a comparison to how a fire can flash over into a much more dangerous stage and notes how much easier it is to hit it while it is small. He expresses a measure of anger with medical and political establishments, /do allow for that.

He identifies that by the time people are at a Doctor’s office they are likely to be about day 5 in the disease process, on the verge of an explosion in viral load with attendant damage to the body.

He estimates turnaround time at about 3 days on tests, thus if you wait you likely have had serious damage due to explosion in viral load with attendant cell destruction to produce those viruses; linked doubtless, is immune response which can spin out of control in a potentially fatal cytokine storm.

He points to manageable toxicity and safety then suggests, go on the drug cocktail, then pull back if there is no need.

An implication of his discussion is what we may call the U-model of such a disease as this. As came up in a current UD thread:

The idea is that a fast-mover disease like this triggers a U-shaped trend (with a potentially catastrophic descending arm), where the crisis is the bend. Those who fail to make it, unfortunately die . . . a reverse J as the rising arm has been frustrated. Recovery then takes an onward period so recovery statistics lag death statistics, part of the epidemiologist’s headaches. Of course, relapses can move us to a W . . . double U . . . etc. So, we have a simple descriptive model of the trend of such an illness. [This is similar to the plucking model of recession in economics.] The stitch in time factor is, to hit the process early in the descending arm, so the U is shallow; you will probably recall the question of building up one’s “resistance” to colds, Flu and the like. In the context of Ivermectin, its preliminary indication is that it can help to pluck back up from further down the descending arm. And of course hospitalisation is an index of being fairly far down the arm, ICU being a yet worse sign. Intubation and Ventilation are grim signs.

While we wait on his announced publication, we may wish to discuss. END

PS: An interesting second vid comes from India, courtesy Tech for Luddites:

PPS: Here is the screen clip, June 3rd:

224 Replies to “Dr Zelenko on Israel National News, May 21, 2020 — forthcoming paper ~ two weeks?

  1. 1
    kairosfocus says:

    Dr Zelenko on Israel National News, May 21, 2020 — forthcoming paper ~ two weeks?

    — he also speaks to the stitch in time factor, but make allowance for that he is plainly somewhat angry (and is himself fighting life-threatening cancer in the meanwhile)

  2. 2
  3. 3
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, We shall see. A telling sign of what is really up will be if the Zelenko paper is published or is refused publication. I note, that politico’s use of “cure” language is a telling sign against the underlying soundness of the report, as there are no cures being discussed, only treatments. Where, where you are in the U is pivotal. As for vaccines, the track record with corona viruses is not so great. One hopes for a turnaround. Also, get something rated unsafe seems to have implications. Of course, to date you have not responded to my remarks on the Lancet paper https://uncommondescent.com/medicine/doctor-ivette-lozano-from-dallas-texas-on-treating-patients-with-hcq-cocktails/#comment-702509 in response to some fairly derogatory comments on your part, nor have you withdrawn same. KF

  4. 4
    jerry says:

    France bans use of HCQ for COVID-19.

    This was on the news yesterday. How stupid of France!

    There are many who want to do it in US too because Trump pushed it. There cannot be a win for Trump.

    This attitude is killing tens of thousands of people but few care as long as they or their family are not one of them. They are as Harry Lime said, just dots down below.

    Kf,

    Doubt any of the skeptics will watch video or view it favorably. It just reinforces what they been told for weeks. That has not had any effect.

    Google has taken MedCram videos about zinc and HCQ. Incredible the censorship going on but not a peep from skeptics.

  5. 5
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry, one effect of the French ban would be to force a terminus to Raoult’s study. Though the trend lines there were suggesting end of wave. Muy interesante, leaving only Zelenko as the last bastion. So, if he meets a wall of refusals to publish, that will tell us all we need to know. KF

    PS: Look at the Zelenko vid above from nearly a week ago.

  6. 6
    kairosfocus says:

    PPS: We need to hear from those on the ground and familiar with facts who are also trained observers and analysts. Therefore the response to Zelenko et al and others will be telling. One thing I can say is, going forward I am a lot less inclined to take the Medical-Pharmaceutical establishment at face value on any matter of significance. They are failing inductive logic and warrant 101, for starters and the further window on toxic professional, research and administrative politics, corroborating what we can see from the holocaust of living posterity in the womb is popping up big red flags. The good sign is, there are dissidents. The bad one is, they are dissidents . . .

  7. 7
    FourFaces says:

    Dr. Zelenko is obviously a Yahweh-believing orthodox Jew and not a secular atheist Jew. Yahweh-believers are taught to value honesty. Orthodox Jews should stand up and oppose what secular Jews are doing in their name. Otherwise they’ll pay a price when the pot boils over. Christians are getting fed up with being called Nazi, racist and antisemitic by a bunch of racial supremacists.

  8. 8
    jerry says:

    I bet this study did not get into the Lancet data base. https://bit.ly/2M15Akh

    Actually shows HCQ helps severe patients.

  9. 9
    bornagain77 says:

    As to:

    “I bet this study did not get into the Lancet data base.”

    Low Dose of Hydroxychloroquine Reduces Fatality of Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 – May 15, 2020
    Excerpt: In this retrospective study, we included 550 critically ill COVID-19 patients,,,
    Primary endpoint is fatality of patients, and inflammatory cytokine levels were compared between HCQ and non-hydroxychloroquine (NHCQ) treatments. We found that fatalities are 18.8% (9/48) in HCQ group, which is significantly lower than 47.4% (238/502) in the NHCQ group (P<0.001). The time of hospital stay before patient death is 15 (10-21) days and 8 (4-14) days for the HCQ and NHCQ groups, respectively (P<0.05).
    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32418114/

    If justice were served, the main stream media would be culpable in murder.

  10. 10
    jerry says:

    .

    If justice were served, the main stream media would be culpable in murder

    I’m for a permanent lockdown in New York City metropolitan area, Washington DC metropolitan area,, Los Angeles metropolitan area and San Francisco metropolitan area. It contains about 85% of national media.

  11. 11
    bornagain77 says:

    ^^^ 🙂 🙂

  12. 12
    kairosfocus says:

    FF, I will leave the above up for the moment, though it is off topic. Of far greater concern is the racially tinged content; projecting racial supremacism to Jews in general and posing them as in conflict with Christians angered by being accused of nazi-like racism is the sort of turnabout accusation that the actual nazis routinely used to create a sense of justification for their crimes. That is a road we do not need to go down. KF

  13. 13
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry and BA, we shall see. One thing I am sure is that the atmosphere has been well and truly poisoned. Poisoned in the first instance by professionals who should understand the stitch in time principle for medical intervention. KF

  14. 14
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Jerome Corsi responds as a PhD political scientist to Reuters’ questions. Whatever we may think of the man . . . and I specifically do not endorse him, he raises troubling questions. KF

  15. 15
    FourFaces says:

    Kairosfocus @12

    If you’re going to put words in my mouth and accuse me of “projecting racial supremacism to Jews in general” (which I clearly did not do seeing that I made a distinction between orthodox and secular Jews), just go ahead and ban me and I’ll be on my way. The fact remains that secular atheist Jews control mainstream media and they’re the ones who are badmouthing Hydroxychloroquine. So yes, I am on topic.

  16. 16
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Eh? Surely it can’t help your case to link to a 2-hour youtube video by a schizo like Jerome Corsi?

  17. 17
    rhampton7 says:

    Galia Rahav, head of the Infectious Disease Unit and Laboratories at Sheba Medical Center, Tel Hashomer, told The Jerusalem Post that at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, her team treated some patients with hydroxychloroquine and enrolled others in a clinical trial that involved the drug.

    Rahav told the Post that she does not believe the side-effects of the drug are a significant danger.
    “We have not seen any scary side effects,” she said, noting that this is true even among those patients who have received high doses of the drug for long periods of time. She said there have been isolated cases of arrhythmia and rashes, but that these were not consistent or common symptoms. “I don’t think the side effects are a big deal, but I also think it does not do anything.”

    https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-specialist-hydroxychloroquine-ineffective-treatment-for-covid-19-629493

  18. 18
    rhampton7 says:

    In a video shared by the Orthodox news site Yeshiva World News, Zelenko announced he would leave Kiryas Joel, the town north of New York City where, until the coronavirus pandemic, he was known as a beloved community doctor.

    “ Things have happened,” he said speaking directly to the camera. “I’ve decided that it’s time for me to move on. I’m not sure yet what I’m going to do.”

    Leaders of the Kiryas Joel community spoke out publicly against Zelenko in an open letter in March.

    “We the undersigned institutions strongly believe that the predictions presented by Dr. Zelenko have been proven false and are not supported by the overall medical establishment, specifically in his wild conclusions as to the spread of the virus in our community,”

    The letter was written to contradict Zelenko’s claims, which he promoted in videos posted to YouTube, that 90% of the Kiryas Joel community would be infected with COVID-19.

    Zelenko is also being investigated by a federal prosecutor over his claim that a study of the drugs he promoted had won approval from the Food and Drug Administration.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-md-who-promoted-virus-cocktail-leaving-community-where-he-tested-it/

  19. 19
    Seversky says:

    Kairosfocus 1

    Dr Zelenko on Israel National News, May 21, 2020 — forthcoming paper ~ two weeks?

    — he also speaks to the stitch in time factor, but make allowance for that he is plainly somewhat angry (and is himself fighting life-threatening cancer in the meanwhile)

    I’m sorry to hear Dr Zelenko is ill but glad to hear he is publishing a paper at last.

  20. 20
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, you resorted to blanket dismissal without addressing substantial issues, not noting that I specifically do not endorse his general opinions. Do you see what I mean about a toxic environment? KF

  21. 21
    kairosfocus says:

    FF, you have again made an ETHNIC rather than an ideological identification. I suggest, you would be well advised to rethink, given the sad and unfinished history of hatred towards and violence against Jews. I suggest, that a characterisation that media are racially controlled by people identified as supremacists is a further indication of grave error. Please, think again. KF

  22. 22
    Seversky says:

    Kairosfocus @ 13

    One thing I am sure is that the atmosphere has been well and truly poisoned. Poisoned in the first instance by professionals who should understand the stitch in time principle for medical intervention. KF

    Aren’t Dr Zelenko and Dr Raoult professionals?

    I am not aware of any health professionals who have denied the importance of early intervention.

    The poisonously partisan atmosphere in this country is due in no small measure to a president who paid lip-service to uniting the country on a few occasions but otherwise has worked hard to court his right-wing base and separate them from the rest of America which he and they are coming to regard as mortal enemies.

  23. 23
    kairosfocus says:

    Sev, Dr Zelenko has been fighting a rare cancer that reportedly has effectively 100% fatality rate; per description in earlier vids. He regards himself as a miracle to simply be alive. Such will indeed tend to give people a sense of mission. The paper has been in discussion for several weeks, and a key part of the OP is that there is a proposed timeline. KF

  24. 24
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, Dr Zelenko’s personal and community issues are irrelevant to the substantial issues at stake. Let us look towards the forthcoming paper. KF

  25. 25
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I mean there is plenty of serious evidence concerning the topic at hand, isn’t there? Lots of studies, analysis of those studies by various competent individuals, etc. Then you just drop Jerome Corsi into the discussion—it’s almost like you’re taunting us. Should we expect a link to Roseanne Barr’s take on the subject next? 😛

  26. 26
    FourFaces says:

    KF @21

    I stand by what I wrote. Don’t threaten me. Just ban me. I’ll be fine with that.

  27. 27
    kairosfocus says:

    Sev, the whole bias towards in-hospital treatments and trials under those circumstances is already a factor in the issues. The issue of where we are on the U is pivotal to understanding and responding to what is warranted, e.g. the cases and balances of outcomes we see are critically dependent on how far down the U we are. Concerns about what may well be happening when cardiovascular damage is setting in due to the disease process and that interacts with what are strong drugs doing some pretty harsh things to cellular processes may be severely mis-aligned when extended to higher on the U. In that context, singling out ferocious advisories, suspensions etc on use of HCQ for CV19 when, were it generally cardio-toxic, it should extend far more to long term use for Lupus and Arthritis as well as to widespread use on Malaria, is to my mind a flag on improper inductive inferences likely being present. KF

    PS: Speaking as an outside observer concerned about the path of the leading global economic and geostrategic power which is also the pioneer of mmodern democracy, I would say that the down-spiral of ever increasing polarisation now in low kinetic high agit prop and lawfare civil war, dates back to at least the 1960’s and 70’s, with the Vietnam War, the rise of holocaust of living posterity in the womb and several other factors as highlights. I have openly stated my concerns on fatal disaffection, on important historical geostrategic antecedents such as the 1914 catastrophe, and have specifically identified that urban, largely coastal elites and groups in their patronage are facing a peasant uprising on both sides of the Atlantic. There being a very long tradition of such among the English Speaking peoples. Of course, events from April 19 1775 on are a particularly striking example. The current circumstances simply mark one phase in that process and those elites and those influenced by them would be well advised to consider the likely eventual outcomes of their power moves should full bore fatal disaffection set in. I say that, without any particular endorsement of any current or future champions of the hinterland peoples, knowing all too well the sort of dangerous lottery that such uprisings are and the long history of would be political messiahs. I do think that some very ill advised things have obviously been in train for 50 years in the case of the USA. But then, arguably, the powder train to 1914 and 1940 goes back to 1870.

  28. 28
    kairosfocus says:

    FF, correction is not threat. KF

  29. 29
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, I do not know whether Ms Barr has had serious issues to raise (nor do I know who/what she is other than some sort of US media figure), but whatever we may think of the man, on this specific matter Dr Corsi does raise sobering issues, regardless of whatever else he may be, have done, have said or is up to. I am pointing to a WARNING-sign on which fatal disaffection may well be settling in. I have already noted to Sev and have already pointed EG to my point by point comments for cause on the Lancet paper. KF

  30. 30
    FourFaces says:

    KF,

    You’re not correcting me. Unless you’re hiding something, you’re just afraid of secular Jewish retaliation. I’m not. Between 50 and 80 million Christians died at the hands of atheist Bolshevik Jews in the Soviet Union according to Solzhenitsyn. But all we hear about are racists and Nazis and 6 million Jews that they allegedly murdered even though the Jewish population in Europe at the time was probably less than 2 million.

    I worship a Jewish God named Jesus of Nazareth who was born of Mary, a descendant of King David, and had 12 Jewish disciples. So anyone accusing me of antisemitism can kiss my you know what.

    So go ahead and ban me.

  31. 31
    kairosfocus says:

    FF, Just on one point, perhaps, it has not dawned on you that it is easy to show that the Communist state in the USSR was not a Jewish conspiracy, though a significant number of Communists were Jews, starting with Marx. Engels — his key partner — was not. Lenin was not, Stalin was not, Khrushchev, Brezhnev et al were not. And, on my recall of The Gulag Archipelago as read at the time it came out, Solzhenitsyn targetted malevolent, demonic evil running through the individual human heart and its roots in deception, not any particular race. However, there was indeed someone who did champion that the kissing cousin ideology he hated and set out on the bloodiest war within a war in history over was a Jewish conspiracy. I am not speaking out of fear of Jews or for that matter out of blindly naive pro Zionist sentiment or the like, but out of fairness and readily established truth. Please, please, please, think again. KF

  32. 32
    FourFaces says:

    KF,

    You should really research what Solzhenitsyn wrote about atheist Jews in the USSR apart from the Gulag Archipelago. Both Lenin and Stalin had Jewish ancestry. Jews were the only ethnic group to have had special protection in the USSR instituted by Stalin. Most of the killing of Christians occurred during and before WWII when Bolsheviks were in power.

    Bernie Sanders, an atheist Jew and Senator from Vermont never once visited Solzhenitsyn when the latter lived there for 20 years. There’s a reason for that. Guess what it is. And as far as atheist Jews being racial supremacists is concerned, you really need to educate yourself about their incessant propaganda of having a higher IQ than any other ethnic group. It’s a good old boys club that control many national and internal institutions dedicated to making themselves look superior with powerful jobs in industry, government and academia, not to mention frequent Nobel Prizes and other self-given rewards.

    So stop being scared of the enemy within. Their only goal is to destroy all nations (especially Christian nations) and create a borderless, monocultural, planet-wide super state with themselves at the top. I only pray that orthodox Jews would make themselves heard and oppose what the others are doing in their name because it will get ugly, I’m afraid.

  33. 33
    Ed George says:

    FF

    … because it will get ugly, I’m afraid.

    With mindless hatred like you are demonstrating, it has already gotten very ugly.

  34. 34
    FourFaces says:

    EG,

    I don’t hate Jews. I worship one. I love Jews in general just I as love Christians in general. It’s just that there is a minority among Jews that are not really Jews in the orthodox or OT sense. They’re secular atheists pretending to be Jews as a way to play the victims even though they’re filthy rich and powerful. They make a lot of trouble for the world, starting wars, creating more division and hatred among the races, religions and the sexes, and doing the one thing that they do best, weaving lies and deception. Jesus had a few choice words to say to them, something having to do with Satan. Then he prophesied about the coming destruction of Jerusalem by the Romans. He also sent his Jewish disciples, not to the Jewish people, but to the lost sheep of the House of Israel, the brothers of the Jews who had migrated to Europe.

    They can stop their treason and shenanigans anytime they want. We can still be friends.

  35. 35
    kairosfocus says:

    FF,

    you are continuing the same line, unconsciously and unfortunately revealing much. So, as I suspect this is part of the emergent fatal disaffection (and given some truly ugly history) I will further remark here, even though this is well off on a toxic tangent. Partly, in hope that we can refocus the main issue for this thread, instead of getting lost on successive toxic tangents.

    There is, after all, a pandemic to address and there are issues of inductive, scientific logic and warrant relating to how we address evidence regarding treatment; with wider implications for how our overall intellectual and moral capacity to prudently address issues is heading in the face of waves of crisis. Where, the issue of commanding heights of influence in our civilisation and how they may lead us astray, lurk.

    Perhaps, this matter is a lesson for other cases.

    By ancestry, I am Jamaican. In that country, apart from Windward Maroons and doubtless some far mixed out Arawak ancestry, the oldest identifiable ethnic group is Jewish. Some estimate that about 40% of Jamaica’s current stock have Jewish ancestry. Others also point to W Africa and some suggested Jewish ancestry in THAT population also. I have friends who are in fact Jews, not merely having that extraction; though some are by religion Christian. Their names point to the Jews of the Mediterranean basin.

    When I hear you unconsciously using the one drop of tainted blood rule to point to Lenin and Stalin, that rings all sorts of bells. Especially as, notoriously, many of the leading members of Herr Schicklegruber’s circle and key henchmen, even some Generals, evidently had fairly close Jewish ancestry.

    Down that road lie horrors I don’t even want to suggest any further.

    I suggest, if you want a better frame for addressing twisting the issue of oppression, past and even as yet unfinished, into part of ideological plausibility structures that support various political power games you would find that neo-Marxism, in cultural form (as a post-Cold War resurrection), is a far better fit. Often, expressed in terms of the widespread, deeply influential cultural/critical studies/theory largely tracing to the Frankfurt School and other sources. Summarising by clipping SEP:

    Critical Theory
    First published Tue Mar 8, 2005

    Critical Theory has a narrow and a broad meaning in philosophy and in the history of the social sciences. “Critical Theory” in the narrow sense designates several generations of German philosophers and social theorists in the Western European Marxist tradition known as the Frankfurt School. According to these theorists, a “critical” theory may be distinguished from a “traditional” theory according to a specific practical purpose: a theory is critical to the extent that it seeks human “emancipation from slavery”, acts as a “liberating … influence”, and works “to create a world which satisfies the needs and powers” of human beings (Horkheimer 1972, 246). Because such theories aim to explain and transform all the circumstances that enslave human beings, many “critical theories” in the broader sense have been developed. They have emerged in connection with the many social movements that identify varied dimensions of the domination of human beings in modern societies. In both the broad and the narrow senses, however, a critical theory provides the descriptive and normative bases for social inquiry aimed at decreasing domination and increasing freedom in all their forms.

    Critical Theory in the narrow sense has had many different aspects and quite distinct historical phases that cross several generations, from the effective start of the Institute for Social Research in the years 1929–1930, which saw the arrival of the Frankfurt School philosophers and an inaugural lecture by Horkheimer, to the present. Its distinctiveness as a philosophical approach that extends to ethics, political philosophy, and the philosophy of history is most apparent when considered in light of the history of the philosophy of the social sciences. Critical Theorists have long sought to distinguish their aims, methods, theories, and forms of explanation from standard understandings in both the natural and the social sciences. Instead, they have claimed that social inquiry ought to combine rather than separate the poles of philosophy and the social sciences: explanation and understanding, structure and agency, regularity and normativity. Such an approach, Critical Theorists argue, permits their enterprise to be practical in a distinctively moral (rather than instrumental) sense. They do not merely seek to provide the means to achieve some independent goal, but rather (as in Horkheimer’s famous definition mentioned above) seek “human emancipation” in circumstances of domination and oppression. This normative task cannot be accomplished apart from the interplay between philosophy and social science through interdisciplinary empirical social research (Horkheimer 1993).

    Notice, the central archetypal construct, slavery/ liberation, with all that is then connected to it and all that plays off the implied tainting and toxic atmosphere that undermines sound and balanced thought. Down that road lie all the lurking issues of branding and scapegoating the perceived oppressor, thus silencing messages we most urgently need to hear. Plato’s Parable of the Ship of State and its echo in Ac 27, could not be more urgently relevant and unheeded. You useless stargazer . . .

    And yes, several of the key scholars from Germany, from Italy, I think France and definitely the US were Jewish. That holds true for any significant academic, political or cultural movement of our civilisation.

    Where, obviously, you need to learn that the Y Chromosome and Mitochondrial DNA studies have shown that key Ashkenazi Jewish populations were rooted in Jewish men settling in regions and marrying local girls, then closing the ancestral circle within that community. Eventually, those communities then interbred.

    This is consistent with the known history, also with up to perhaps 10% of the early Roman Empire’s population being Jewish. Then came the triple uprisings from 66 – 135 AD. Myths about Asiatic tribes have little foundation, though you should note clear evidence of accession, such as Joshua being a Kennizite Edomite ancestrally, David having Moabite roots and clear links to the royal house of Moab (carrying suggestions as to what Ruth was), and even the story of the Herods and the Hasmoneans. Connect dots.

    Yes, many Jews have been taught to be suspicious and fearful of and even in some cases subtly hostile to Christians. That is unsurprising on the relevant history. It is also now under challenge from within Judaism on several fronts, many tracing to the rise of openly Messianic Judaism connected to the impact of the Charismatic Renewal from the 1960’s forward and thus also the Pentecostal and Methodist/Wesleyan movements, among others.

    So, there is clear need to rebalance.

    It is high time that the sins of racism were acknowledged and turned from. Across the board.

    An excellent place to begin is Paul’s Mars Hill presentation:

    Acts 17:22 So Paul, standing in the center of the Areopagus, said:

    “Men of Athens, I observe [with every turn I make throughout the city] that you are very religious and devout in all respects.

    23 Now as I was going along and carefully looking at your objects of worship, I came to an altar with this inscription: ‘TO AN [d]UNKNOWN GOD.’ Therefore what you already worship as unknown, this I proclaim to you.

    24 The God who created the world and everything in it, since He is Lord of heaven and earth, does not dwell in temples made with hands; 25 nor is He [e]served by human hands, as though He needed anything, because it is He who gives to all [people] life and breath and all things.

    26 And He made from one man every nation of mankind to live on the face of the earth, having determined their appointed times and the boundaries of their lands and territories. 27 This was so that they would seek God, if perhaps they might grasp for Him and find Him, though He is not far from each one of us. 28 For in Him we live and move and exist [that is, in Him we actually have our being], as even some of [f]your own poets have said, ‘For we also are His children.’

    29 So then, being God’s children, we should not think that the Divine Nature (deity) is like gold or silver or stone, an image formed by the art and imagination or skill of man.

    30 Therefore God overlooked and disregarded the former ages of ignorance; but now He commands all people everywhere to repent [that is, to change their old way of thinking, to regret their past sins, and to seek God’s purpose for their lives], 31 because He has set a day when He will judge the inhabited world in righteousness by a Man whom He has appointed and destined for that task, and He has provided credible proof to everyone by raising Him from the dead.”

    If you look for a model for gospel communication through prophetically insightful intellectual leadership, across worldview, ideological, geostrategic, cultural, racial and class divides, there it is. (And BTW, here on in context is how I address this.)

    KF

  36. 36
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry, 8:

    Actually, likely the study you point to may well be in the base but its scale would drown out such indications under the weight of post hospitalisation, severely damaged patients with lung damage, cardiovascular damage and emerging cytokine storms.

    Framing, sampling choice and several other issues can lead to drowning out valid signals in a situation.

    Something, sustainability driven strategic change analysts are trained to look out for. This is also why stakeholder consultation based highly participative approaches to assessing business as usual and potential alternatives are part of the package deal. When power agendas dominate, truth and right are likely to be in key part marginalised, tainted, stereotyped and scapegoated.

    Not to mention, the gold standard fallacious lockout that is leading to improperly excluding the valid and otherwise cogent evidence of thousands of cases, that show manageable safety and strong signs of effectiveness when intervention is made before hospitalisation is indicated due to damage triggered by the disease process. In that context, casting a pall of suspicion over the safety of the drug in the context of CV19 then leads to suspending ALL studies that actively use it; neatly cutting off further evidence save from whatever countries defy the WHO.

    That is smelling of a pattern in drug investigation administrative and regulatory politics. How many actually credible treatments have been banished to the margins in recent decades? Could there be an emerging, growing gap between what ordinary people and minor paradigms marginalised by the dominant medical community know and what is the duly imprimatur-bearing dominant narrative. Is this part of why there is obvious, increasing disaffection with the Medical-Pharmacological establishment. And if that is so for a big slice of the global service economy, what is that pointing to regarding general disaffection from the civilisation’s elites and their dominant narratives across the board?

    But a big clue is right there: it seems the average residence time in the body for the drug is ~ 3 weeks,suggesting some fat solubility I think (based on basic chemistry and the known flushing action of the kidneys). In that context, if HCQ is significantly cardio-toxic, then the primary targets would be those making long term use, where it would be built up and sustained in the body on a long term basis . . . Arthritis, Lupus and Malaria.

    So, the very narrowness of the ban and ferocious warnings says, something is afoot that didn’t ought to be afoot.

    The statistics suggesting higher incidence of cardiovascular impacts post hospitalisation, given the known tendency of CV19 to attack the cardiovascular system indicates an interactive rather than primary effect. One that would be amplified through Azithromycin, which is noted for potential cardiovascular impacts. Hence, the suggested substitution of Doxycycline.

    In that context, taking the data on early stage positive impact seriously — one of the problems with valid evidence vs gold standard fallacies I am seeing — we can see that the body of evidence is in fact consistent in ways that support the efficacy of HCQ based cocktails as effective antivirals for SARS2.

    But, when we have a toxic climate, such nuanced thinking or suggestion will very likely be drowned out.

    Sad, and the lockoff on further study will then lead to predictable marginalisation and branding of intellectual dissent from the power imposed, logically deeply flawed dominant narrative.

    Which will ring a few bells as we ponder how ID has been treated over the past twenty or so years. Bad habits on addressing issues, analysis, evidence and thought have consequences.

    Surely, we can do better than this?

    KF

    PS: Sometimes, even the wild-eyed heretics have a point.

  37. 37
    Bob O'H says:

    Jerry @ 8 – I’ve no idea if it did, but there are some severe problems with it, for example it was registered as a trail for traditional Chinese medicine, some of the numbers are impossible, and others don’t make sense. Oh, and April seems to have had 60 days. Some of these problems might be mistakes that can be corrected, but it doesn’t look great.

  38. 38
    jerry says:

    Was the Lancet study cooked? Are the following accusations true?

    1. Won’t reveal data!
    2.Contradicts other data sources!
    3. Contradicts all other claims of harm by HCQ!
    4.Researchers associated with Gilead!
    5. Who funded study?
    6. When did analysis start?
    7. How did they get data since it is not public?

    One researcher said it would take years to get this data and get it analyzed based on his experience with medical research but yet it appears in about 6 weeks. For example, each hospital would have to be coded for when HCQ was administered and this was not being kept anywhere uniformly.

  39. 39
    FourFaces says:

    KF @35

    Thanks for that reply. I’ll read it carefully and look into the references. Unfortunately, I don’t have much time to devote to this discussion. As an AI researcher, I’ve known for years that the field is almost 100% dominated by atheist Jews and it has been so from the beginning. It’s a good old boy’s network and every one of them is a globalist Christophobe with a deep hatred for the concept of national territory and cultural identity (except their own). I personally call it treason. They go out of their way to create a false antagonism between Christianity and science. Nobody can have a career in Silicon Valley while being openly Christian. And it’s all because of the atheist mindset fostered by the atheist Jews who control the field. As a Christian, I find it insulting. There’s no doubt in my mind that their stranglehold over mainstream media, the high tech industry and education will eventually result in open hostilities and rebellion. They’re pissing off a lot of people. Again, I wish the orthodox Jews did not remain silent on this issue because their atheist brethren are pushing the world to the brink of disaster. May God help us all.

  40. 40
    jerry says:

    The anti RHampton site https://bit.ly/2Ag6ZAQ

    Yale Epidemiology Professor Urges Hydroxychloroquine & Azithromycin Early Therapy for COVID-19

  41. 41
    jerry says:

    The preprint of the article by Yale epidemiologist recommending the use of HCQ and azithromycin. I wonder how long before he is hauled in and read the riot act and offered a job consulting with a drug company and to repeal his article. Notice extremely low rate of death due to use of HCQ in abstract below. But yet the Lancet study finds thousand times this rate in their data base.

    https://bit.ly/2ZM6bhy

    Abstract
    More than 1.6 million Americans have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and >10 times that number carry antibodies to it. High-risk patients presenting with progressing symptomatic disease have only hospitalization treatment with its high mortality. An outpatient treatment that prevents hospitalization is desperately needed. Two candidate medications have been widely discussed: remdesivir, and hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin. Remdesivir has shown mild effectiveness in hospitalized inpatients, but no trials have been registered in outpatients. Hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin has been widely misrepresented in both clinical reports and public media, and outpatient trials results are not expected until September. Early outpatient illness is very different than later hospitalized florid disease and the treatments differ. Evidence about use of hydroxychloroquine alone, or of hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin in inpatients, is irrelevant concerning efficacy of the pair in early high-risk outpatient disease. Five studies, including two controlled clinical trials, have demonstrated significant major outpatient treatment efficacy. Hydroxychloroquine+azithromycin has been used as standard-of-care in more than 300,000 older adults with multicomorbidities, with estimated proportion diagnosed with cardiac arrhythmias attributable to the medications 47/100,000 users, of which estimated mortality is <20%, 9/100,000 users, compared to the 10,000 Americans now dying each week. These medications need to be widely available and promoted immediately for physicians to prescribe.

  42. 42
    bornagain77 says:

    Jerry did you see this yet?

    COVID-IHU # 15
    Version 1 of May 27, 2020
    Early diagnosis and management of COVID-19 patients: a real-life cohort study of 3,737 patients, Marseille, France – Didier Raoult and company – May 27, 2020
    Results:
    By testing 101,522 samples by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from 65,993 individuals, we diagnosed 6,836 patients (10.4%), including 3,737 included in our cohort. The mean age was 45 (sd 17) years, 45% were male, and the fatality rate was 0.9%. We performed 2,065 low-dose computed tomography (CT) scans highlighting lung lesions in 581 of the 933 (62%) patients with minimal clinical symptoms (NEWS score = 0). A discrepancy between spontaneous dyspnoea, hypoxemia and lung lesions was observed. Clinical factors (age, comorbidities, NEWS-2 score), biological factors (lymphopenia; eosinopenia; decrease in blood zinc; and increase in D-dimers, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), creatinine phosphokinase (CPK), and c-reactive protein (CRP)) and moderate and severe lesions detected in low-dose CT scans were associated with poor clinical outcome. Treatment with HCQ-AZ was associated with a decreased risk of transfer to the ICU or death (HR 0.19 0.12-0.29), decreased risk of hospitalization ?10 days (odds ratios 95% CI 0.37 0.26-0.51) and shorter duration of viral shedding (time to negative PCR: HR 1.27 1.16-1.39). QTc prolongation (>60 ms) was observed in 25 patients (0.67%) leading to the cessation of treatment in 3 cases. No cases of torsade de pointe or sudden death were observed.
    Conclusion
    Early diagnosis, early isolation and early treatment with at least 3 days of HCQ-AZ result in a significantly better clinical outcome and contagiosity in patients with COVID-19 than other treatments. Long-term follow-up to screen for fibrosis will be the next challenge in the management of COVID-19.
    https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/early-diagnosis-and-management-of-covid-19-patients-a-real-life-cohort-study-of-3737-patients-marseille-france/

  43. 43
    jerry says:

    Jerry did you see this yet?

    Thank you! Maybe we should get some of our HCQ deniers to tell us why the study is no good. I am sure they can find some nitpicks.

    By the way I thought the most interesting thing in the videos in the OP is the reference to China finding that lupus users seemed to be immune to the virus.

  44. 44
    rhampton7 says:

    Researchers at Hackensack Meridian Health group saw no difference in the survival among intensive care patients with COVID-19 who were given the controversial drug hydroxychloroquine.

    Researchers administered the malaria drug — touted by President Donald Trump as a cure for the novel coronavirus — to 2,512 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, according to the announcement.

    Among those involved in the study, 76 percent received at least one dose of hydroxychloroquine and 59 percent received a combination of hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic,

    https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/05/27/coronavirus-nj-no-hydroxychloroquine-efficacy-new-drug-shows-promise/5270475002/

  45. 45
    rhampton7 says:

    Two case series of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and SARS-CoV-2 infection explore the association between baseline use of SLE medications and COVID-19 outcomes.

    In the first report, a case series published in The Lancet Rheumatology, Yevgeniya Gartshteyn and colleagues from Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York, USA, describe the experience of 18 patients with SLE and confirmed (n=10) or suspected (n=8) SARS-CoV-2 infection. Baseline chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine use was reported in 43% of the seven hospitalized patients, and a further three patients initiated hydroxychloroquine use after hospital admission. The majority (91%) of the 11 patients who were not admitted to hospital were taking chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine.

    Gartshteyn and team conclude that “[p]revious intake of immunosuppressants before admission to hospital did not seem to influence the severity of infection.”

    In the second study, Carlomaurizio Montecucco and colleagues from Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo in Pavia, Italy, evaluated the incidence of COVID-19 in 165 patients with SLE from Northern Italy who took part in a survey. Of these, 12 patients developed COVID-19, including four with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and eight with clinically suspected infection.

    Noting that “the role of [hydroxychloroquine] on COVID-19 is a matter of debate,” the authors believe their findings “do not suggest that [hydroxychloroquine] may exert a protective action against the infection.”

    However, they caution that “we cannot draw any conclusion, since the concomitant use of other immunosuppressive therapies could have influenced the incidence and course of COVID-19 in our cohort.”

    https://rheumatology.medicinematters.com/systemic-lupus-erythematosus-/covid-19/lupus-therapies-may-not-impact-covid-19-outcomes/18019374

  46. 46
    kairosfocus says:

    FF, first rule of holes, to get out, stop digging in. KF

  47. 47
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry, thanks, the bitly link talks about expired tokens. KF

  48. 48
    kairosfocus says:

    BA77, thanks, hard to find paper. KF

  49. 49
    FourFaces says:

    KF,

    In your case, it’s hard to come out of the hole you’re in unless you first realize that you’re already in it. My prediction about big trouble on the horizon stands. By the way, the most ardent and intransigent opposition to ID and hydroxychloroquine comes from atheist Jews. See you guys around.

    PS. Many conservatives, including Trump, are quickly realizing who are responsible for fake news in the mainstream news media and the censoring of conservative views on social media. You got it: not other Christians, not orthodox Jews but atheist/secular/globalist Jews.

  50. 50
    jerry says:

    RHampton helps invalidate the Lancet study but not President Trump. Thank you.

  51. 51
    Bob O'H says:

    Thank you! Maybe we should get some of our HCQ deniers to tell us why the study is no good. I am sure they can find some nitpicks.

    he first one is that we can’t read the pre-print. It’s impossible to judge the work just from the abstract.

  52. 52
    jerry says:

    KF,

    Try this. https://bit.ly/3gqoLBQ. Hope this works.

    Then click on the PDF for the full article. I tried to point to the full article.

    first one is that we can’t read the pre-print

    I am glad you identified yourself as a HCQ denier. But I was talking about the study that BA posted about Raoult. I corrected a link to the other study abstract which I posted which allows downloading the manuscript submitted for publishing.

    Happy bed time reading in Norway.

  53. 53
    kairosfocus says:

    FF, turnabout projection. KF

  54. 54
    rhampton7 says:

    Researchers found that cancer patients with COVID-19 who receive both hydroxychloroquine and the antibiotic azithromycin have a higher risk of death than those who aren’t given the two drugs.

    Of the 928 patients in the study, 13% died within 30 days of being diagnosed with COVID-19. After adjusting for certain factors, the researchers concluded that patients with progressing cancer were 5.2 times more likely to die within 30 days than those in remission or with no evidence of cancer.

    Patients who received the combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin to treat COVID-19 had a nearly threefold higher risk of death within 30 days than those who didn’t receive either drug, the investigators found.

    Patients who received the two drugs and later died were more likely to: have had slightly reduced daily physical function; have received cancer therapy less than 2 weeks before being diagnosed with COVID-19; have Rh-positive blood type; be of non-Hispanic ethnicity; and to be taking cholesterol-lowering statins.

    https://consumer.healthday.com/infectious-disease-information-21/coronavirus-1008/hydroxychloroquine-may-worsen-odds-for-cancer-patients-with-covid-19-758072.html

  55. 55
    rhampton7 says:

    President Donald Trump took to the presidential podium to champion hydroxychloroquine despite its unproven effects against Covid-19, FDA commissioner Stephen Hahn apparently did more than issue an emergency use authorization for the drug.

    He also personally assisted a self-described “simple country doctor” in Monroe, New York in navigating the process of setting up an outpatient clinical trial involving some 950 infected people, Vanity Fair reported. Text messages and email records show that Hahn introduced Vladimir Zelenko to officials at FEMA to obtain pills for the study — a highly unusual act that sharpens fears of politicization of the malaria medicine.

    https://endpts.com/covid-19-roundup-roche-pairs-actemra-with-remdesivir-in-new-phiii-gsk-makes-its-own-1b-vaccine-manufacturing-plan/

  56. 56
    rhampton7 says:

    Dr. Zelenko uploaded a video to YouTube in which he addressed the president directly. Zelenko claimed that he had used hydroxychloroquine early on hundreds of patients, not a single one of whom had been hospitalized. He even advocated treating patients with his regimen of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and azithromycin before confirming a diagnosis, as he believed clinical intuition was more important than a positive test. In the video, he told Trump, “I am suggesting that you please advise the country that they should be taking this medication in an outpatient setting.” He added, “I personally love you.”

    Zelenko claims that clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine with poor outcomes are part of a political conspiracy from a “corrupted” medical establishment, and are “clearly designed to fail and to substantiate a false narrative.”

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/documents-expose-fda-commissioners-interventions-on-behalf-of-trump

  57. 57
    jerry says:

    RHampton is finally learning about Zelenko after a couple thousand posts here about him and his protocol.

    A better link is to a Vanity Fair article which is a political hit piece but it describes in more detail what has been going on. My guess is that Vanity Fair hopes to disrupt the Zelenko protocol. If Vanity Fair was honest, they would describe why people are excited about Zelenko’s patients.

    https://bit.ly/2M57eRV

  58. 58
    Ed George says:

    FF, seek help. Please. You lump all non-practicing Jews into a nefarious category, responsible for all of the earth’s ills. Why not draw caricatures with large noses, heavy brows and low foreheads? All people are individuals. Once you lump groups together and blame them for things, you are being a racist. Plain and simple.

  59. 59
    ET says:

    “Atheist Jew” doesn’t make any sense. What makes you a Jew is that you practice Judaism.

    There are Hebrews who are atheists. But usually we just call them atheists.

  60. 60
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry, thanks, got it. Raoult’s actual papers of course are ever elusive. KF

  61. 61
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, kindly note the U and the difference between an intervention early on the descending arm and one after significant damage. Notice Raoult’s scan results on how legions on the lungs are already there even as mild symptoms begin. This killer is a fast, sneaky mover. The Lancet study highlights further down the arm, Raoult and Zelenko etc are speaking to the stitch in time factor. For that matter such comes out in Corsi’s reply on public record to Reuters gotcha loaded question journalism questions. More can be said. KF

  62. 62
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N wile searching, I found this from IHU Med on Doxycycline, in vitro result with suggested dosage for use in cocktails https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Dox_Covid_pre-print.pdf >>An efficient approach to drug discovery is to evaluate whether existing approved drugs can be efficient against SARS-CoV-2. Doxycycline, which is a second –
    generation tetracycline with broad – spectrum antimicrobial, antimalarial and anti-inflammatory activities, showed in vitro activity against SARS-CoV-2 with median effective concentration (EC50) of
    5.6 +/- 0.4 microM. Doxycycline, with its antiviral and anti-inflammatory activities, could be used in prophylaxis of COVID -19 at 100 mg day in combination with chloroquine, or in treatment at 200 mg day during 10 days in combination with hydroxychloroquine.>> KF

  63. 63
    Silver Asiatic says:

    ET

    “Atheist Jew” doesn’t make any sense. What makes you a Jew is that you practice Judaism.

    Judiasm does not require a belief in God. It’s a cultural organization and people who identify themselves with the religion may be atheists, but they respect certain rituals and Jewish heritage. There are many famous atheist Jews and they are not kicked out of the Jewish religion.

  64. 64
    Silver Asiatic says:

    FF

    PS. Many conservatives, including Trump, are quickly realizing who are responsible for fake news in the mainstream news media and the censoring of conservative views on social media. You got it: not other Christians, not orthodox Jews but atheist/secular/globalist Jews.

    I didn’t think Mr Trump was realizing that fact. His policies have been dominated by a Jewish influence, and his son-in-law is a very strong source of that. There are some theistic-Jews who are strong supporters of ID. David Kllinghoffer is a prominent one. There’s a rare atheist Jew also – as with Mr. Berlinski. But for the most part, guys like Jerry Coyne dominate the opposition.

  65. 65
    ET says:

    Silver Asiatic:

    Judiasm does not require a belief in God.

    Judaism is a monotheistic religion. It is all about One God. The God of Abraham and Moses, Noah and Adam.

  66. 66
    daveS says:

    Perhaps we should stop generalizing about “atheist Jews”? I’m surprised this hasn’t been shut down yet.

  67. 67
    Silver Asiatic says:

    FF

    I only pray that orthodox Jews would make themselves heard and oppose what the others are doing in their name…

    I think guys like Ben Shapiro and Dennis Prager attempt to do that, to some degree. But they can’t argue against what atheist-Jews do in the name of Judiasm, since liberal, conservative, reform and orthodox all share the same religion and none of them is any more authentic than the other. So called Orthodox Judiasm is a newer religion than Christianity. It has no divine mandate, no claim to authenticity, no prophet. It’s a man-made construct. Waiting for a Messiah (and many have given up on that), trying to preserve themselves as a people, for some reason – without the help of a God-directed plan since there are no prophets as of old.
    From my perspective, they rejected and killed the Son of God, so what can we really expect?

  68. 68
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, I took the initial decision that on the whole sunlight is the best antidote to regrettably tainted thought; albeit evidently sincerely held. I don’t think we are dealing with a willful troll. I believe the expressions are inadvertently exposing a yet lingering problem and it is clear that the balance on merits is decidedly unfavourable to some sentiments expressed. At the same time there has not been an abusive, personally nasty exchange. So, I am thinking a greater good has come about through a relatively liberal exchange. I think those tempted by such views will have some sobering food for thought. Beyond a certain point it may reach the enough correction phase. KF

  69. 69
    kairosfocus says:

    ET et al, Judaism is in its historic core one of the three main roots of our civilisation, along with the heritage of Athens and that of Rome. So, it is helpful to better understand that history and in that light modern Jewishness. Judaism was historically a covenantal peoplehood, with a base in a network of tribes but with infusions from those who acceded to the covenant, such as Caleb. King David and so Jesus, had Moabite ancestry on the record, Ruth. Subsequently, in modern times, a significant number of Jews have become secularised, so that Jewish identity includes significant numbers of such secularised Jews. Ethnic identity is broader than specific worldview and religious involvement. Note, with the rise of Messianic Judaism again, the spectrum between Judaism and the Christian faith is once more demonstrated on the ground. Let us recall, too, acceptance of returning exiles from Ethiopia and India, leading to fairly obvious colour and cultural diversity. Israeli nationality is again far broader, there are Druse, Arab, Ciracassian and even Vietnamese Israelis. I would not be surprised to find Jamaican Israelis of quite mixed ancestry. So, Jewish identity is a bit complicated in our day. That only serves to underscore the ill-advised nature of lumping and stereotyping Jews in general or as any one sub group. I hope we can move on. KF

  70. 70
    FourFaces says:

    EG,

    I’m not lumping all atheist Jews into a nefarious category. The fact remains that Silicon Valley, anti-free-speech social media corporations, the decadent Hollywood entertainment industry and the fake mainstream news media are all dominated by atheist/globalist/Christophobic/anti-white Jews. If the shoe fits, etc.

    If you’re a Jew (atheist or not) and you disagree with the evil practices of other Jews, do something about it, please. I say this because, unless they stop their subversion, it will not end well. We can all be friends.

    PS. Don’t tell me to seek help. I’m not easily intimidated.

  71. 71
    Silver Asiatic says:

    Judaism is a monotheistic religion. It is all about One God. The God of Abraham and Moses, Noah and Adam.

    That was true at one time in ages past. Today it is not true.

    Based on Jewish law’s emphasis on matrilineal descent, even religiously conservative Orthodox Jewish authorities would accept an atheist born to a Jewish mother as fully Jewish.[1] A 2011 study found that half of all American Jews have doubts about the existence of God, compared to 10–15% of other American religious groups.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_atheism

  72. 72
    kairosfocus says:

    FF, the higher the monkey climbs in the coconut tree the more he exposes himself to the watching hunter, even as he looks to getting coconut for lunch. There is enough on the table to show that there is need on your part to rethink and re-orient. KF

  73. 73
    daveS says:

    KF,

    It’s your thread of course. But are you familiar with the background of your interlocutor (a notorious internet crank since the usenet days)?

  74. 74
    Silver Asiatic says:

    FF

    I say this because, unless they stop their subversion, it will not end well.

    I think we’re at a point in history that is similar to what happened in 1930s Germany and the rise of Nazism. Among the youngest generation of conservative Americans (generation-Z, alt-right), I have never seen a group with so much hostility towards Judiasm before, and it is growing rapidly on the internet. The perception is that our society has a great fear of criticizing Jews and it simply overlooks various outcomes from Jewish-dominated power structures, as you mentioned. The subversion is perceived as being real and powerful, and basically unopposed.
    This creates an underground backlash. Hostility grows in proportion as the anti-Jewish voice is suppressed.
    So, I would agree that it will not end well if this sort of thing continues. It’s all the recipe for an outbreak of hatred and violence.
    The answer is to talk about such matters – thoughtfully and clearly. Pointing out serious problems without fanning the flames of hatred against a group of people.
    The same is true of a critique of Islam or other groups.

  75. 75
    FourFaces says:

    KF,

    Please stop speaking in tongues and making threats. Put your money where your mouth is and ban me. You’ll be vindicated and I’ll be out of your hair.

    SA,

    Thank you for that well thought-out reply. I agree that these issues should be discussed but the globalists hate free speech. Anti-Jewish sentiments are growing fast and I wish that the rich and powerful atheist Jews who control so much of Western life would do an about face and stop their subversion of Western Christian nations. It’s still time to avert a major catastrophe. The US is an armed society. Peace is better than out of control hostilities. We can all be friends.

  76. 76
    rhampton7 says:

    Chief Medical Officer Allison Suttle of Sanford Health said those studies used the drug to treat people infected with the virus. At first, South Dakota’s pilot study was looking at the same thing.

    “There were some cases where we were treating patients with hydroxychloroquine in the hospital setting,” Suttle said. “But those physicians, those critical-care docs that meet regularly and discuss the literature, are now saying that hydroxychloroquine is not useful in those scenarios.”

    Suttle made the remarks during a joint press conference Thursday with Gov. Kristi Noem.

    Suttle said South Dakota will continue its hydroxychloroquine trial only on people who’ve been exposed to COVID-19, but have not tested positive. If doctors say they’re a good candidate, volunteers will get either the drug or a placebo.

    https://listen.sdpb.org/post/state-keeps-hydroxychloroquine-trial-only-prevention-drug-won-t-go-sick-patients

  77. 77
    rhampton7 says:

    A growing pool of global death statistics indicates that few countries are accurately capturing fatalities from the new coronavirus—and in some the shortfall is significant.

    In the U.S., Russia, the U.K., the Netherlands and many other countries, the number of deaths recorded from all causes has jumped since March and far exceeded the number of deaths those countries report as linked to Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/most-countries-fail-to-capture-extent-of-covid-19-deaths-11590658200

  78. 78
    Ed George says:

    This is definitely a new low for UD. Tolerating some tinfoil hat commando complaining about Jewish conspiracies.

  79. 79
    FourFaces says:

    KF,

    You should get ready. Ed George and DaveS are making ad hominem threats. Soon, UD’s editors will be accused of being Nazis, right wing racists and fascists but never Bolsheviks for some strange reason. Have fun. 😀

    PS. Ban me now and your problem is solved. 😀

  80. 80
    kairosfocus says:

    FF, that’s enough. You have had ample chance to take advantage of an opportunity of correction. It is now quite clear that there is enough to settle the merits and that further exchanges will spiral into personalities as has just begun. I am gavelling the side-tracking now. There will be no further discussion on this needless tangent. I suggest that a more positive and reasonable approach on your part would be helpful to you and others, and no, if you provoke a disciplinary response through toxic onward distractive behaviour, it will not be because we are persecuting you; it will be the equivalent of removing an ill-disciplined disruptive child from a classroom for cause. The subject on the table, as the OP states, is a pandemic and there are serious linked issues confronting the world. KF

  81. 81
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, 76, yes, the issue is to address the U early in the descending arm. Dr Raoult’s latest paper points to hundreds of CT scans showing lung legions already there with only mild symptoms. Not a good sign, this is one sneaky, fast-moving killer and whatever plausibility structures led to the notion that treatment should be delayed until enough damage is done that need for hospitalisation is obvious, is missing the mark by far. The stitch in time factor is clearly even more serious than we may have thought. KF

    PS: Onward, a serious global priority needs to be the identification and development of broad-spectrum antivirals suitable for prescription and follow up by a doctor or nurse practitioner without need for hospitalisation. SARS2 is a clear, grim warning.

  82. 82
    kairosfocus says:

    SA, for this thread, there has been enough of a discussion, with ample opportunity to take correction; the manifest lack of merit to racist conspiracising is readily seen, as is the issue of ever deepening polarisation that we have raised so often here at UD. My own diagnosis is that resurgence of the sort you describe is a blowback from the undermining of sound thinking on logic and especially inductive warrant, inference to the best current explanation on the merits and prudence in recent decades. What ever did those who promoted hyperskepticism as an intellectual virtue in the place of the charioteer of the virtues, prudence, imagine? Wasn’t the warning in Plato’s Ship of State and Cave enough, even for those who would not heed Ac 27? (The latter being far more accessible . . .) My personal conclusion is the need to do more on logic and first principles of right reason here at UD. KF

    PS: Let me add a verse or two of Scripture:

    Amos 5:12 For I know your transgressions are many and your sins are great (shocking, innumerable), You who distress the righteous and take bribes, And turn away from the poor in the [court of the city] gate [depriving them of justice].

    13 Therefore, he who is prudent and has insight will keep silent at such a [corrupt and evil] time, for it is an evil time [when people will not listen to truth and will disregard those of good character].

    14 Seek (long for, require) good and not evil, that you may live;
    And so may the Lord God of hosts be with you,
    Just as you have said!

    Of course, the other side of the coin is the even more famous passage in 3:7 – 8:

    Amos 3:7 Surely the Lord God does nothing
    [a]Without revealing His secret plan [of the judgment to come]
    To His servants the prophets.

    8 The lion has roared! Who will not fear?
    The Lord God has spoken [to the prophets]! Who can but prophesy?

    In an evil day when the innocent is often targetted for destruction and corruption rides rampant, prudence is to keep one’s counsel to oneself. But, there is a magnificent and costly exception: trumpet the prophetic word to an untoward generation under judgement of consequences of its entertaining evil. That’s the foundation of being the good man in the storm as Ac 27 indicates,

  83. 83
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Questions emerge over the Lancet study, and of course my initial markup in the previous thread is still there. KF

  84. 84
    jerry says:

    Kf,

    One of two hypothesis from Lancet analysis is likely true. Either

    HCQ causes virus to become more virulent or

    Much more serious patients received HCQ

    First is contrary to all other information. Second is based on reported anecdotes of treatment. If I were given a bet, I know where my money would be.

    Data shows extremely higher use of ventilation with HCQ patients.

    Either way study is irrelevant since this Is a late stage study during a time with problematic testing. Which means imprecise knowledge of time of infection.

    If true, these doctors are willing to let people die for some unstated reasons by using a false study.

  85. 85
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry,

    I think we can agree that there is something wrong with the pattern of the data and how it is reported. If HCQ is destructive, then a much wider ban should have been set up, but that would cut across decades of successful use. The howls of protest would be overwhelming. That sort of hedging is already deeply worrying, as it is a sign that something is wrong with the narrative being projected to us.

    So, they almost have to be implying an interaction effect with the virus, which might be broader than making it more virulent but would include such.

    That is already something that needs to be very carefully and cogently explained to us.

    However, Raoult’s 500+ CT scans are showing that as soon as symptoms appear damage has already begun, and it is known that the virus also causes cardiovascular system damage. At the same time, they are saying they are compensating for differences in data sets so they can match outcomes. Some, suggest, a bit too much. However, that is not pivotal, what is, is as you have highlighted is that this is on hospitalised patients, implying a significant amount of damage given those scans.

    The problem with that is that this points to intervention that is too far down the descending arm of the disease trajectory U to be relevant to early positive impacts of the cocktail as Raoult, Zelenko and others are documenting.

    Comparing sweet crab apples with sweet at first but deadly beach death apples.

    Where the sort of researchers, editors and peer review people involved have to be far too technically sophisticated to simply stumble into conflating materially distinct circumstances. So, we are looking at a bad sign. I suspect, gold standard fallacy and belittling labelling has led to sweeping away the evidence on early stage effectiveness, whatever has led to only under hospital like circumstances then locks in failure as perceived and those crying foul don’t count. Except, that in a day of peasant uprisings, the deplorables do count.

    What then becomes interesting is why is there such a push to lock out early and preventive treatments that on the body of evidence in hand are clearly effective and may reduce death rates by up to 90+% in some cases relative to the baseline of treat like Flu with complications.

    Compound with the influence of the deep polarisation in our civilisation, especially the US and I point to plausibility structures and power systems in the research, administrative and pharmaceutical institutions and networks as well as the media and government that are clearly civilisation-toxic.

    THAT is the other disease we need to be fixing, pronto.

    KF

  86. 86
    Bob O'H says:

    I think we can agree that there is something wrong with the pattern of the data and how it is reported. If HCQ is destructive, then a much wider ban should have been set up, but that would cut across decades of successful use.

    I don’t think HCQ has been used against COVID-19 for decades.

    However, Raoult’s 500+ CT scans are showing that as soon as symptoms appear damage has already begun, and it is known that the virus also causes cardiovascular system damage.

    Right, so could this be interacting with the effect of HCQ on the heart?

  87. 87
    jerry says:

    I don’t think HCQ has been used against COVID-19 for decades.

    Who said that? I don’t believe anyone here has said that. It has been used for decades and considered harmless. It was over the counter in France till a few months ago and used widely as a prophylactic in the United States. It is widely prescribed for other afflictions and there is no wide negative effects.

    The Lancet data is showing ventilator use at much higher rates among HCQ patients. Why? No one has proposed that HCQ exacerbates the disease. The study did not say the deaths were due to heart problems.

    So an alternative hypothesis is that it was given to more severely ill patients. This would invalidate the whole Lancet study.

    It was also during a time when testing in North America was problematic and took a long time sometimes a week. So when it was given relative to the time first infected seemed to be an unknown. Just that they were hospitalized. Do you have any information that is contrary?

    I will use the example of my friend. He was hospitalized with pneumonia and was described as unconscious on a ventilator and fighting for his life. It then came back that he had C19 and was given HCQ. Last I heard he was better but still weak. This seemed typical at the time in early to mid March.

  88. 88
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, If HCQ is strongly cardio-toxic in itself, that should long since have showed up; especially in cases where it is in long term use; where, effectively, all drugs are poisons used in small doses. It isn’t. The issue, then is interaction with the situation, where a key confounding factor is it is known that SARS-2 and as a result COVID-19 attack the heart and cardiovascular system. Another is that Azithromycin can have effects on the heart, part of why Doxycycline is also being looked at (cf. above re a Raoult report on that). The further evidence from the 500+ CT scans is that lung legions are apparently already happening before obvious symptoms, indicating damage is happening fast and silently, which would point to cardiovascular system damage too. This is a sneaky, fast moving killer. I am perfectly willing to buy that an already damaged and strained heart-lung-circulatory system to the point of hospitalisation would make strongly acting drugs significantly more toxic than otherwise. But at the same time, there is a relevant otherwise: earlier in the disease process, where the evidence that seems to be being sidelined points to ability to keep people from deteriorating to the point of needing hospitalisation. That is why I am pointing to the significance of the U, AND to questions on how we are thinking and deciding. KF

  89. 89
    Silver Asiatic says:

    KF

    My own diagnosis is that resurgence of the sort you describe is a blowback from the undermining of sound thinking on logic and especially inductive warrant, inference to the best current explanation on the merits and prudence in recent decades.

    For me, a simple replacement of hyper-skepticism for the charioteer of the virtues is not a sufficient explanation for the specific sort of blowback that I referenced. Imprudent thought could result in any number of errors, but this particular situation is furthered by irrational fear and a shut-down of discussion, demonizing of opposition and a failure to gain any real understanding of the issue as a result.
    It’s similar to what we find in the opposition to ID.

  90. 90
    kairosfocus says:

    SA, yes, the polarisation is manifest on particular issues that become hot button as they run counter to the agenda of the establishment’s key factions. Selective hyperskepticism, dismissiveness to valid but inconvenient evidence, deliberate polarisation, undermining of inductive reasoning ability and more, joined to evolutionary materialistic scientism are doing a number on us. A return to prudence would make a big difference. KF

  91. 91
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Perhaps a separate thread for these issues would be useful? OTOH, it might be too charged of a topic.

    Anyway, there seems to be quite a bit of blaming the “establishment”, evo-mats, and fellow-travelers for antisemitism and the like.

    While certain factions are obviously trying to divide us, I can’t see holding anyone else to account for my own prejudices—that’s on me. Do you think anyone else is responsible for your interlocutor’s destructive views?

  92. 92
    FourFaces says:

    KF,

    You don’t have to ban me, man. I’m gone. But you ID people and Catholics need to understand who your most strident enemy is. It’s not the orthodox Jew who believes in God and creation. It’s the atheist Jew who hates God and wants to destroy your nations, your borders and your religion through propaganda, decadence, deception and incessant lies. Hasta la vista.

    PS. Just a minor criticism of your style. I think you write too many words to say simple things. 😀

  93. 93
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, I think more than enough has surfaced to show this is a real problem and that, sometimes at least, it will not yield to simple corrective evidence. Not a good sign. I doubt that entertaining such in a thread would be of any benefit, in that light. Enough is there above to show that we are not afraid to deal with the problem, that the balance on merits is not in favour of this or any other form of racism, and that persistent advocates are unlikely to yield to mere correction. That does not point to profitable discussion. I do note that establishments are sometimes racist, that there has been significant advance since WW2, and that ideological polarisation tied to ruthless factionalism is a more serious pattern of problems in terms of being a major, clear, present danger. KF

  94. 94
    Silver Asiatic says:

    KF

    the manifest lack of merit to racist conspiracising is readily seen

    I am just proposing some clarity, prudence and justice on these matters. You’ve used the term racist here, without warrant. However, I fully understand that since Judiasm has a racial component, then, as many believe, any critique in that direction is to be considered anti-Semitic racism. But that makes real discussion impossible.

    FF

    But you ID people and Catholics need to understand who your most strident enemy is. It’s not the orthodox Jew who believes in God and creation. It’s the atheist Jew who hates God and wants to destroy your nations, your borders and your religion through propaganda, decadence, deception and incessant lies.

    As stated above, I don’t make that distinction, as I showed that even Orthodox Jews accept atheists as “fully Jewish”. As a Catholic, I accept that Judiasm is our enemy, and we are commanded to love our enemies and to care for them and do good for them. Violence against Jews has always been forbidden – formally by the Holy See in the 1100s where Catholics, under pain of excommunication, were forbidden to harm Jews, but that was not a new doctrine. It was always in place, in spite of the fact that many Catholics cruelly violated that directive.

    DS

    Anyway, there seems to be quite a bit of blaming the “establishment”, evo-mats, and fellow-travelers for antisemitism and the like.
    While certain factions are obviously trying to divide us, I can’t see holding anyone else to account for my own prejudices—that’s on me. Do you think anyone else is responsible for your interlocutor’s destructive views?

    When I point blame at those sources, I’m just considering the underlying worldview that is logically consistent with various evils against people. It is a constant theme here that evo-materialism lacks any foundation for consistent morals. So, rather than point the blame to various individuals, it is the philosophical error that gets targeted, since that is what shaped the materialist-culture. Certain individuals are leaders, so they get some particular blame.

  95. 95
    Silver Asiatic says:

    KF

    Enough is there above to show that we are not afraid to deal with the problem, that the balance on merits is not in favour of this or any other form of racism, and that persistent advocates are unlikely to yield to mere correction.

    I didn’t see FF having an animosity on racial lines – he was praising Orthodox Jews who are presumably the same race as the atheist-Jews he was condemning.
    But from an ID vs Darwin perspective, I think racism is a very big issue and has been dealt with by Richard Weikart among others.
    As stated above, we run into a very big problem when any criticism of Judiasm is immediately categorized as a racial attack. Of course, it can logically be seen that way, since Judiasm is a racial construct. So, if a person opposes Jewish activities, he can be considered anti-Jewish, and thus anti-Semitic.
    But can we see how this becomes a trap which means that a certain religion is entirely immune from criticism (and it can be even illegal to criticize it in some places), thus leading to an unfair, or even oppressive attitude and the group adopting a privileged role in society?
    As stated, it is this lack of clarity that causes the underground, Jewish hatred that eventually spills out into prejudice and violence.
    I see this as relevant to ID because we talk about the origin of human life and we have to sort through racial issues.

  96. 96
    rhampton7 says:

    A new study in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that from March 15 to March 21, prescriptions for a 30-day supply of hydroxychloroquine surged 1,977%, from 2,208 to 45,858. It also found that prescriptions for a 30-day to 60-day supply jumped 179%, from 70,472 to 196,606, and prescriptions for a more than 60-day supply increased 182%, from 44,245 to 124,833.

    Since that week, prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine have steadily declined. However, a total of 483,425 excess fills of the drug were issued during the 10-week period that began March 15 when compared to the same time period in 2019.

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/hydroxychloroquine-prescriptions-surged-2-000-after-trump-promoted-drug

  97. 97
    rhampton7 says:

    Israel’s Health Ministry is warning people not to “slip into complacency” about the coronavirus after recording a spike in new cases.

    The ministry reported another 64 cases late Thursday after weeks of steady improvement when the total number of active cases dropped below 2,000. New outbreaks have been linked to schools, which recently reopened after weeks of lockdown.

    Authorities have lifted most of the restrictions in recent weeks. This week bars, restaurants, pools and hotels were allowed to reopen. Authorities are urging people to wear masks in public and practice social distancing, but in recent days many have appeared to ignore the rules.

    https://apnews.com/b98d942c6713d63a965a6a9cda1d7179

  98. 98
    kairosfocus says:

    SA, I do not think that further discussion on this matter will be of much profit. Given your concerns as I just saw, I will simply note that critique of a theology or of a worldview, or of specific behaviour of particular representatives acting in an official capacity (consider the Catholic concept of anti-popes or critiques of the Judaean leadership of the Sanhedrin c 30 AD), is not to properly be equated to hatred of a race. No fair minded person could responsibly argue otherwise; though irresponsible rhetors will clearly be just that, irresponsible. One of the basic problems above as noted is that radical secularist ideologies including Marxism and Evolutionary Materialistic Scientism — simply as a fact of history of ideas — are not solely or even in the main or in the large either specifically Jewish creations or overwhelmingly Jewish in composition of adherence. Nor are the views of adherents of such systems determined by their having one drop of Jewish blood. That is a red line, one crossed by one certain Mr Schicklegruber 80 years ago in describing Bolshevism, and it is a line we must be vigilant about. Beyond this, I have only resorted to further comment as it seemed a balancing remark was necessary. I think it would be advisable to cease from further discussion on this tangent, given its needless, toxic nature and the fact that something else is on the table that is of far greater urgency that requires cool-headed sober analysis. I request that further discussion on this toxic tangent ceases. I am sorry if this leaves some unsettled in mind but on the evidence of logic challenges embedded in a deeply polarised civilisation, I doubt that any reasonable and satisfactory generally accepted conclusion can be reached. Indeed, re-emergence of racial polarisation is a sign of the depth of polarisation at work. No good result can be achieved, so, let us not further weigh down this thread with a needless, toxic tangent. KF

    PS: I should note for DS that up to the 1960’s it was routine for establishment figures to state dubious racist sentiments; one discounts for that in reading. The locus I have seen suggested above is younger generations.

  99. 99
    kairosfocus says:

    FF, as a point of fact, notoriously, the most strident polemics against the design inference and likewise against Judaeo-Christian theism in recent years — they typically erroneously conflated the two — came from the now palpably fading so-called New Atheists. Their rhetorical stridency, somewhat amateurish philosophical and theological musings and question begging a priori evolutionary materialistic scientism have clearly failed. Corrections came from many angles including from non theistic thinkers. KF

  100. 100
    Ed George says:

    SA

    I didn’t see FF having an animosity on racial lines – he was praising Orthodox Jews who are presumably the same race as the atheist-Jews he was condemning.

    If he was just criticizing secularists, that would not be racist. But he limited his rant to secular Jews. That makes it racist.

    Yes, there are many very successful and powerful people who are of Jewish ancestry. All I hear from FF’s nonsense is jealousy. And then he justifies his racism with the old, “some of my best friends are Jewish”, crap.

  101. 101
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, let us turn from this needlessly toxic sidetrack. I believe SA has been given enough. KF

  102. 102
    FourFaces says:

    KF & EG,

    The widespread violence has begun sooner than I thought it would. I predict it will get really nasty. Civil war may not be too far behind. We know who the traitors are. We know who has been fueling the fire of division. They call themselves globalists and they hate Christians. Make sure you are on the winning side.

  103. 103
    Silver Asiatic says:

    KF

    I think it would be advisable to cease from further discussion on this tangent, given its needless, toxic nature

    I don’t agree that the topic is, by nature, toxic. And I do not agree that there are grounds to cease the dialogue. For example, I’d wish to respond to EG. But I certainly accept and will support your decision to close off the discussion.

  104. 104
    Ed George says:

    Just an observation on the relative differences between Canada and the US with respect to their COVID responses. I have repeatedly stated that the number of cases and number of deaths are proportionately higher in the US than in Canada, by a large measure.

    KF has responded that this was because the rapid spread in Canada started later than the US. Given that the US peaked somewhere around April 7 and Canada a couple weals later, KF’s rationale made sense. But the rates of decline in new cases, given that they are both testing at comparable rates, should be completely due to the effectiveness of respective actions. Since the peak, the number of daily new cases has dropped approximately 50% in Canada and 35% in the US. Given that the US has been in the decline mode at least two weeks longer than Canada, it is pretty clear that Canada is being more effective.

  105. 105
    ET says:

    You cannot compare the USA with Canada. For one, the population density is much different.

    We might not even have closed down if our population was so low.

  106. 106
    Ed George says:

    ET

    You cannot compare the USA with Canada. For one, the population density is much different.

    Urban settings are at the highest risk for disease transmission and both Canada and the US have the same percentage of their population in urban areas (just over 80%). Where they differ is that in these urban areas, Canada has 1.38 times the density per square mile of the US. So, all else being equal, we would expect the COVID-19 infection rates to be higher than in the US. But we are not seeing that.

  107. 107
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, the centre of the US epidemic is one big urban concentration, also with 40% of deaths being Nursing Homes. Given what has emerged regarding mismanagement of control of infections in such homes in the general vicinity of the Hudson estuary, there is clearly a special factor at work. One, that is very local rather than national. I guess the degree of locality in the US as a federation can be said, strictly, to be a national policy, but that has roots in the 1700’s and in the post Civil War era, with further modifications impacted by the Civil Rights era. I remain convinced by the early exponential spreading, that there is a tendency to grow at a rate proportional to the current mass of the infected; later, that rate is damped down by saturation effects and counter measures. I have been puzzled by the long sustained linearisation rather than bending over of growth for several nations and the global picture. There is a weird factor there. As at the last I looked, the US growth was bending over but very slowly. KF

  108. 108
    ET says:

    New York city has a population density of 27,000 people/ sq. mile. Toronto has a population density of about 6, 890 people/ sq. mile. Yeah, it’s close. 🙄

    2015 NYC Census

    Toronto

  109. 109
    ET says:

    Chicago has over 11, 500 people per square mile.

  110. 110
    jerry says:

    Are The lack of new cases a good metric of handling the virus? I haven’t seen any logic that this is a good metric. As long as the virus remains it will eventually reach everyone. Certainly low deaths from the virus is a good objective but that is not the same metric as lowering new cases.

    Is the goal having everyone immune the real goal? If so how does this happen?

    Which is the better strategy effective treatment of people when they get the virus, assuming all have to get it or postponing the inevitable while having good testing?

    The latter seems to be the objective of the world but is it foolish?

    I realize people are scared. My wife talked with an old friend a week ago and her friend thinks she and her family had the virus and are now through it. My wife was jealous. She doesn’t want to get the virus, she just wants to be over it.

    Do we all have to get through it but we ourselves don’t want to actually get it? Is that what is in most of our minds?

    If a country or area think that they have it under control will someone, it just takes one person, be able to start it all over again?

  111. 111
    Ed George says:

    KF

    EG, the centre of the US epidemic is one big urban concentration, also with 40% of deaths being Nursing Homes.

    If you want to remove COVID-19 deaths in old age homes from the comparison, I am fine with that. 82% of COVID deaths in Canada were from nursing homes.

    That leaves a comparison where both countries have the same percentage of population in urban settings. Everything else being equal you would expect the US to have ten times the number of cases and deaths. But the US has 20 times the cases and 15 times the number of cases. To make matters worse, Canada has a couple additional factors that should make combatting the spread of disease more difficult. Canada has 1.38 times the urban density than the US and a higher median age.

  112. 112
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, the dynamics would shift dramatically, there is no simple subtraction. You are removing a dominant mass and location, the situations would not be the same. Counterintuitive but pivoting on growth is by contact with existing mass where it is until slow down effects appear. No, the comparisons are invalid. For instance, where would the older people be instead and how would that shift social contact patterns? If, in family homes, that shifts social dynamics in general. KF

  113. 113
    ET says:

    You have to be a desperate fool to try to compare Canada and the USA. The numbers I provided prove that Acartia Eddie is a desperate fool.

  114. 114
    Ed George says:

    KF, so you are not even willing to address the possibility that we can learn from the experiences of others? Canada and the US are very similar culturally. Similarly clustered in urban areas. Both with huge problems in nursing homes. But both responded to the pandemic in different ways. From the numbers alone it appears that the Canadians are faring better. I think that both sides can learn from each other. Pretending that they are not comparable is just sticking your head in the sand.

  115. 115
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, I am simply telling you that in a dynamic situation dynamics count, where they can be shockingly counter-intuitive. That’s why problematiques are not easy to address. You cannot simply subtract a significant component in the system and voila here you have a simple, easily calculated different outcome. The system architecture will be very different and it will behave in a different way. What is clear is that nursing homes and the elderly were at the centre of gravity of this pandemic. In the US, a major impact on cases and deaths occurred due to a local blunder in a complex polity. If that had been better managed, the outcomes would have been very different. KF

    PS: The numbers for pop density ET gave also carry big implications for social interaction patterns and manageability. Again, very different architectures lurk in seemingly simple numbers.

  116. 116
    rhampton7 says:

    THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Kerala State Drugs and Pharmaceutical Limited (KSDP) has started exploring possibilities for sourcing raw materials for producing hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug being used as a prophylactic against Covid-19.

    “The state government has instructed KSDP for producing hydroxychloroquine at a meeting. We are trying our best to meet the demand, but there is scant availability of the raw material for the drug,” KSDP chairman C B Chandrababu said.

    “ Now the only place from where we can source the chemicals for the production of the drug is China. Owing to the increased demand for the drug and the Covid-19 related emergencies, both raw materials and the drug are of short supply. The suppliers promising to supply the materials imported from China are demanding unrealistic price. The price of the raw materials that were available at Rs 100 to 150 per kg till a few months ago is now pegged at Rs 6,000 and more,” Chandrababu said. The drug is not available in the open market. Whatever stock available in the state is the ones that the central government has supplied free of cost to the state.

    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/thiruvananthapuram/raw-material-shortage-hinders-hcq-production/articleshow/76106606.cms

  117. 117
    rhampton7 says:

    India saw its biggest spike in Coronavirus cases and deaths on Saturday as 7,964 new infections and 265 fatalities were reported in the last 24 hours.

    With the latest jump, the total number of cases in the country has climbed to 1,73,763 with 4,971 succumbing to the deadly infection. Of the total cases, 86,422 are active while 82,370 patents have been cured.

    This is the second consecutive day that India has reported over 7,000 cases in a single day and eighth day when more than 6,000 patients were logged in 24 hours.

    https://www.thestatesman.com/india/india-sees-biggest-one-day-spike-7964-coronavirus-cases-265-deaths-24-hrs-total-cases-cross-1-73-lakh-1502894145.html

  118. 118
    ET says:

    Acartia Eddie:

    Canada and the US are very similar culturally.

    Canada wishes

    Similarly clustered in urban areas.

    Not according to the numbers I provided. Not even close.

    From the numbers alone it appears that the Canadians are faring better.

    The USA was hit first and harder. But that is moot as your assumptions and premises are all wrong.

  119. 119
    Ed George says:

    KF

    You cannot simply subtract a significant component in the system and voila here you have a simple, easily calculated different outcome.

    All I was suggesting is that we concentrate on community spread outside of nursing homes. When this is done, Canada appears to be managing this much better than the US. However, with respect to nursing homes, Canada has fared much worse than the US. That is why I am saying that comparisons can be very instructional.

    Both countries made mistakes. Both imposed lockdowns late. Both had mixed messages on wearing masks. But Canada had a far better unified message as compared to the polarizing messages in the US. Canada is being far more cautious in reopening.

  120. 120
    rhampton7 says:

    Medial journal The Lancet issued a correction on a large observational study that linked use of anti-malarial drug Hydroxychloroquine with increased death risk in COVID-19 patients, after more than 100 scientists and medical professionals raised questions about integrity of data analysed in the study.

    I n the correction issued on Friday, Lancet said that one hospital self-designated as belonging to the Australasia continental designation should have been assigned to the Asian continental designation.

    Surgisphere in a statement said that its data use agreements do not allow it to make some data public.

    While issuing the correction, Lancet also said that “there have been no changes to the findings of the paper.”

    “ The Executive Group of the Solidarity Trial, representing 10 of the participating countries, met on Saturday (May 23) and has agreed to review a comprehensive analysis and critical appraisal of all evidence available globally,” Tedros said in a virtual press conference on Monday.

    The review will consider data collected so far in the Solidarity Trial and in particular robust randomized available data, to adequately evaluate the potential benefits and harms from this drug, he said.

    https://www.thestatesman.com/world/journal-issues-correction-study-led-halt-clinical-trial-hydroxychloroquine-1502894403.html

  121. 121
    rhampton7 says:

    Russia’s Ministry of Health on Saturday approved a flu drug for use in fighting coronavirus after officials said preliminary testing showed hospitalized patients who took the pills recovered more quickly.

    The drug, known as favipiravir, had produced promising results against coronavirus in early testing in Russia. Its approval makes it among the first in a global race to find treatments and eventually a vaccine for the virus.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-approves-flu-drugs-use-against-covid-19-11590870709

  122. 122
    rhampton7 says:

    Singapore researchers conducted a new study that revealed Remdesivir to be six-and-a-half times more effective at treating patients if it is combined with ritonavir and lopinavir–drugs used to treat people the with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). With the help of artificial intelligence (AI), the researchers were able to determine the effective combination and dosage of the drugs that proved to be effective.

    Professor Dean Ho, the director of the N.1 Institute for Health and the Institute for Digital Medicine at the National University of Singapore (NUS), co-supervised the study. He claimed that although the research for a COVID-19 vaccine or cure continues, the results their study produced will help speed up the search for an interim treatment.

    “Drugs on the market can be combined in various ways and in varying doses,” he said in the report. “With AI, we can interrogate the entire universe of possibilities.”

    The new platform created by the researchers is called “IDentif.AI” which used a pool of 12 carefully selected drugs, and combined them in different ways to check which combination yielded the best result. The drugs used in the study are already being evaluated in clinical trials, with some that are already approved for patient use. Remdesivir, ritonavir, lopinavir, as well as the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, are involved in the study.

    https://en.brinkwire.com/health/covid-19-update-combination-of-remdesivir-lopinavir-and-ritonavir-6x-more-effective-form-of-treatment-moderna-starts-dosing-patients-in-mid-stage-study/

  123. 123
    rhampton7 says:

    A person who partied in the Lake of the Ozarks, Missouri, area on Memorial Day weekend has tested positive for coronavirus — and was possibly infectious over the holiday weekend.

    The Boone County resident visited multiple bars on May 24 and 25, according to the Camden County Health Department. They “developed illness” on Sunday and were possibly infectious before then.

    The partier went to Backwater Jacks between approximately 1 p.m. and 5 p.m. local time and again shortly before 10 p.m. local, according to health officials.

    The person — who was not identified by officials — also went to Shady Gators and Lazy Gators and Buffalo Wild Wings, officials said.

    https://www.wlwt.com/article/person-who-was-at-lake-of-the-ozarks-memorial-day-gathering-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/32719602

  124. 124
    rhampton7 says:

    There have now been ten times as many COVID-19 deaths in Sweden than Norway on a per capita basis.

    According to the Worldometers website, 435 out of every one million Swedes have died from the virus, while the virus has killed 44 out of every million Norwegians.

    And it’s not clear Sweden’s economy will be better off than Norway’s this year. “Economists at Swedish bank SEB estimate Sweden’s GDP will drop 6.5 per cent this year, about the same as the US and Germany, but a little better than Norway and ahead of 9–10 per cent falls in Finland and Denmark, all of which have had lockdowns,” the Financial Times reported May 10. A Reuters poll from April found economists predicting the Scandinavian economies would all fare about the same in 2020.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/swedens-covid-death-rate-now-ten-times-higher-than-norways/

  125. 125
    rhampton7 says:

    Norway and Denmark will allow tourists to travel between the two countries from mid-June, their governments announced on Friday, although border crossings with Sweden – where the number of Covid-19 infections is higher – will remain restricted.

    “ We are looking at the possibility of regional solutions, for example, opening up the Oresund region,” Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde said at a news conference on Friday, adding that she had been in contact with the Danish foreign minister.

    Meanwhile, Sweden has advised all its citizens against travelling abroad until July 15.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/sweden-excluded-as-neighbours-denmark-and-norway-ease-tourism-restrictions

  126. 126
    rhampton7 says:

    Andr ew Gelman, a statistician at Columbia University who has blogged about the article and started the PubPeer discussion on it, writes in an email to The Scientist that the authors’ update “does not address many of the questions that have been raised about this study, but of course it is good for them to correct mistakes and omissions when they find them.”

    Watson writes in an email to The Scientist that the authors “have not addressed the other nine points referred to in the letter, and we do not understand why they cannot at least provide data aggregated by country rather than by continent.” He adds that the signatories on the letter would also like to know which countries in Africa the team is working worth.

    “By allowing the authors to post this correction and not address any of the other concerns,” Watson continues, “The Lancet appear to [be] stating that so far they are not worried about the reliability of the study.”

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/disputed-hydroxychloroquine-study-brings-scrutiny-to-surgisphere-67595

  127. 127
    rhampton7 says:

    Have the Swiss government’s lockdown measures been effective in stemming the pandemic? That’s the question a team of EPFL researchers set out to answer by analyzing data dating back to 28 February, the day the Swiss government banned groupings of over 1,000 people. This initial restriction was followed by a series of others that culminated in a ban on groupings of over five people, introduced on 20 March. “It’s essential for policymakers to be able to quantify how effective these measures are in slowing the spread of SARS-CoV-2, so that they can make the right decisions for both this pandemic and future ones,” says Jacques Fellay, the study’s coauthor. Fellay, a medical researcher at EPFL’s School of Life Sciences, also sits on the Swiss federal government’s COVID-19 scientific advisory board. The team’s findings have just been published in Swiss Medical Weekly.

    The research team found that on a national level, R0 fell from 2.8 at the start of the pandemic to 0.4 in early April – a decrease of 86%. Looking at individual cantons, R0 dropped between 53% (in Jura) and 92% (in Basel-Stadt). The reduction in people’s movements was measured using smartphone data: trips for work, shopping and recreational activities fell between 50% and 75% on a national level and between 30% and 80% on a cantonal level. The researchers also found a strong correlation between a reduction in people’s movements and a decrease in R0, even though this rate actually started declining a few days before people began changing their habits.

    The researchers’ model indicates that 3.9% of the Swiss population has been infected by the new coronavirus (as of 24 April), with cantonal rates ranging from 1.9% in Bern to 16% in Ticino.

    Now that the lockdown measures are gradually being lifted, the research team plans to publish their R0 estimate daily. Tracking this metric closely will be essential since the spread of the virus can only be slowed through people’s behaviors, and not by waiting until we achieve herd immunity – which is still far off.

    https://actu.epfl.ch/news/switzerland-s-lockdown-has-sharply-reduced-the-cas/

  128. 128
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: What we are not hearing (as part context for evaluating what we are hearing as dominant narrative), just as an example, being food for thought rather than endorsement:

    https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-demanding-accountability-world-health-organization/

    >>[STATEMENT:]

    President Donald J. Trump

    ACCOUNTABILITY FOR AMERICAN TAXPAYERS: President Donald J. Trump is holding the World Health Organization (WHO) accountable by putting a hold on United States funding.

    President Trump is placing a hold on all funding to the WHO while its mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic is investigated.
    The American taxpayers provide $400 million to $500 million in funding to the WHO each year, but the WHO has failed them.
    China, on the other hand, provides just around one-tenth of the funding that the United States provides.
    The American people deserve better from the WHO, and no more funding will be provided until its mismanagement, cover-ups, and failures can be investigated.
    President Trump will continue fighting the coronavirus outbreak and will redirect global health aid to others directly engaged in the fight.

    INVESTIGATING THE WHO’S FAILED RESPONSE: The WHO’s response to the coronavirus outbreak has been filled with one misstep and cover-up after another.

    Despite the fact that China provides just a small fraction of the funding that the United States does, the WHO has shown a dangerous bias towards the Chinese government.
    The WHO repeatedly parroted the Chinese government’s claims that the coronavirus was not spreading between humans, despite warnings by doctors and health officials that it was.
    Taiwan contacted the WHO on December 31 after seeing reports of human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus, but the WHO kept it from the public.
    The WHO praised the Chinese government’s response throughout January and claimed there was no human-to-human transmission, despite the fact that doctors in Wuhan were warning there was.
    The WHO decided on January 22 that the coronavirus did not pose a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, all while praising China’s response.
    The WHO put political correctness over life-saving measures by opposing travel restrictions.
    The WHO made the disastrous decision to oppose travel restrictions from China and other countries—despite applauding travel restrictions within China itself—leading to further spread of the virus internationally.

    STRUCTURAL ISSUES AND NECESSARY REFORMS: The WHO has longstanding structural issues that must be addressed before the organization can be trusted again.

    The WHO has shown it was not prepared to prevent, detect, and respond to a severe infectious disease crisis like this.
    The WHO lacks the structure to ensure accurate information and transparent data sharing from members, which makes it vulnerable to misinformation and political influence.
    The United States seeks to refocus the WHO on fulfilling its core missions of preparedness, response, and stakeholder coordination.
    The United States is also calling for reforms to promote transparency and data sharing, hold member states accountable for abiding by the International Health Regulations, increase access to medicines, and counter China’s outsized influence on the organization.>>

    KF

  129. 129
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Prediction, the current wave of rioting in the US is liable to trigger a secondary surge in CV19 cases. The sudden switch in media and voices suggests that the former arguments on how important continued lockdown (including of churches) was, was ideologically loaded. If riotous and arson-laced assemblies that confront local police forces that have nothing to do with an admittedly saddening incident are not clamped down on as peaceful ones in houses of worship are, something truly ugly is coming out about underlying intent. The real message is in the balance of what is unsaid, what is signalled by action/inaction as well as what is promoted as narrative. Rev 13:16 – 18 haunts our civilisation. KF

  130. 130
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, community spread “outside” of such homes where the homes interact with the community through staff etc and constitute 40% of cases, is not so easily severed from what is going on in the homes. The tendency of such epidemics is to spread at rates based on current mass of cases — and not proportion to population of whatever geographical or political zone is used as frame — so long as factors don’t restrict it. KF

  131. 131
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, you have raised a long chain of issues, I will only respond to what catches my eye as significant:

    — what is not highlighted is often more important than what is. As I just noted above, the sudden contrast in response to assemblies for riot and arson vs peaceful assembly in houses of worship speaks volumes.

    — I note yet again that once pandemic broke out large numbers of deaths could not be averted. In all that is done, it needs to be recognised that chaos and death consequent on social disruption and economic collapse [even if temporary] can be worse than whatever happens with the direct epidemic; consider deaths of despair and deaths of famine consequent on economic chaos as evidence of the past century clearly demonstrates. Too often, the issue of balance minimising overall chaos and death is not struck. A telling sign of hidden agendas at work.

    — that India (and other countries, likely) for the moment are dependent on China for raw materials to make HCQ, speaks volumes on the strategic imprudence of economic policy over recent decades. The baseline feedstock is petroleum and/or coal. Strategic capacity and reserves should have been priorities even if lowballing on prices created pressure to offshore to China.

    — Likewise, over the past 20 – 40 years since HIV then SARS etc, there should have been a strategic priority on getting broad spectrum antivirals. For which BTW, HCQ on that 2005 paper, is a candidate.

    — such, speaks volumes on the want of sound thought behind strategy and policy. Never good signs.

    — the main problems with the Lancet paper and with WHO are conspicuous by absence from the minor correction issued. I see you clipped a little on this. The gap between oh we made a mistake over a hospital in “Australasia” and the failure to address cogently the question of treatment locus along the U-shaped trajectory of such a disease tells us that the problem of agendas is dominant. By the time one is hospitalised serious damage has likely been done by that sneaky destructive killer. The stitch in time factor is material. The US response to WHO just above tells us there is something that has gone significantly wrong.

    — Notice the 500+ CT scans by Raoult et al, showing lung lesions even at the point of minor symptoms suggesting that damage to other organs is also likely to be in train, including the heart. As I argue above and in the previous thread and as others who carry far more weight have pointed out, it should be obvious that a stitch in time saves nine. So, it is unsurprising that thousands of cases on early intervention show good effect even as those on late intervention show want of such impact or even possible compounding of damage likely to be at root coming from the CV19 disease process

    — As for differential points of plateau in cumulative cases and deaths, I am not so sure that it is as easy to control local actions in a large federation as it is to do so in a small unitary state, and I am sure that strong centralisation of governing power is inherently dangerous.

    — cocktails of various types have shown some good effect. In the last thread, I highlighted from a suggestion by Jerry IIRC, that Ivermectin added to the HCQ-based coscktail, may allow better effects lower down the U of the disease, which should be followed up. I have also noted on Doxycycline substitution for Azithromycin, which was favourably reviewed by Raoult et al and seems to be a subject for study.

  132. 132
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: I clip on doxycycline:

    https://www.kotatv.com/content/news/New-York-doctor-tells-us-about-his-impressive-results-with-hydroxychloroquine-as-South-Dakota-undergoes-clinical-trial-569682111.html

    >>By Alexus Davila |
    Posted: Wed 8:48 PM, Apr 15, 2020 |
    Updated: Thu 1:28 AM, Apr 16, 2020

    RAPID CITY, S.D. (KOTA TV) – South Dakota is the first to launch a state-wide clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine to potentially treat and prevent COVID-19.

    Monument Heatlh is playing a role in this study and a New York doctor tells us about his eye opening case series with the same drug.

    “We don’t have good information honestly,” Monument Health Director of Research Roger DeRaad said.

    Lack of information is the reason why South Dakota’s clinical trial with hydroxychloroquine is vital.

    Monument Health workers are helping register participants, like health care workers and high-risk individuals, to undergo a five day course.

    They will also help keep an eye on each participants’ health.

    “Whenever we use a medication in a way that’s not approved, we really should be following up with those people,” DeRaad said.

    But someone else has already taken a close look at the anti-malarial drug in smaller numbers.

    Forty-five is a powerful number to Dr. Ryan Saadi because that is how many patients clinically recovered from COVID-19 symptoms in a case series he conducted.

    However, he studied hydroxychloriquine and a cardioprotective antibiotic, doxycycline.

    “That was impressive. I thought it looked too good to be true,” Dr. Saadi, Executive Vice President and Global Head of Patient Access & Medical Affairs at Quantaira Health, said.

    Dr. Saadi says the reason why he looked at doxycycline is because between the anti-inflammatory properties and the overall fewer affects the drug has on the heart, the antibiotic was considered to be more ideal to mix with hydroxychloriquine as the coronavirus “essentially causes some cardiac injuries.”

    But the FDA can’t accept that small number of hope.

    This is why clinical trials are needed, like the 2,000 outpatient one Sanford Health is conducting state-wide in South Dakota.

    See related story South Dakota site for clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine and COVID-19

    Dr. Saadi said it’s a little too early in the stages for him to share his complete thoughts about the clinical trial in South Dakota. But, he said the state is on the right track and he looks forward to the results.

    “No drug is 100 percent safe,” Dr. Saadi said. “So what we do is that we find the balance between the safety and the benefit. If the benefit is more than the risk you are taking, then that’s what you do, especially during a pandemic.”

    Besides, DeRaad said their patients feel a sense of power when participating in research.

    “Our patients frequently mention when they talk about participating in clinical research, it makes them feel like they are fighting back against something they really did not have control of,” DeRaad said.>>

    With:

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/long-island-doctor-tries-new-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19-patients/

    >>Dr. Mohammud Alam, an infectious disease specialist affiliated with Plainview Hospital, said 81 percent of infected covid patients he treated at three Long Island nursing homes recovered from the contagion.

    “In this crisis, I realized I had to do something,” Alam said. ”I realized if this was my dad, what would I do? And I would do anything I could to help.”

    Alam said he decided he could not apply the touted combination of the antimalarial hydroxychloroquine and antibiotic azithromycin because the side effects could be potentially fatal for his high-risk patients, many of whom had underlying heart issues.

    “I knew I could not jeopardize these patients,” Alam said.

    “We know from the FDA that azithromycin can cause fatal arrhythmia and abnormal heart failure that can lead to death,” Alam said.

    His patients were under long-term acute care and had comorbidities such as hypertension, coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or congestive heart failure.

    The FDA has warnings that azithromycin “can cause abnormal changes in the electrical activity of the heart that may lead to a potentially fatal irregular heart rhythm.”

    So instead, Alam replaced azithromycin with another decades-old antibiotic that doesn’t pose any known risks to the heart.

    “Doxycycline is an anti-inflammatory with properties similar to azithromycin but without the safety concerns and without cardiac toxicity,” he said.

    “So I decided why not choose that?” added Alam, a board-certified internist, who shared the results of an observational report consisting of 47 patients he treated.

    ”With the [limited]resources we have at the nursing home, we took a deep breath and realized we need to do something,” Alam said.

    Alam is not the only one to begin using doxycycline in the fight against COVID-19.

    Henry Ford Health System has started using combinations of the three drugs because of apparently fewer side effects, published reports state.

    Alam began treating his patients, 45 of whom had tested positive for the coronavirus after they developed a high fever, shortness of breath and cough.

    He received permission from their families before starting them on the medications, which have not yet undergone randomized controlled trials.

    “The majority had clinical improvement,” said Alam. “We had very good outcomes.”

    Alam said that 38 of 47 patients treated returned to their baseline and their symptoms resolved. Seven of the patients were transferred to a hospital and two died.>>

    Of course, I find the same talking point on “controls” where the obvious fact is, there is a baseline of business as usual that is producing highly unsatisfactory results. In the logic of decision theory as I have highlighted, what is needed is reason to see credible improvement relative to such an unsatisfactory baseline. There is no need to demand as gold standard the creation of an artificial no treatment baseline.

    Notice, too, the role being played by Nursing Homes in the NY area, that was already a warning sign on what was going on with a disastrous local policy blunder.

    Where, of course, on the questionable Lancet paper and other pushes there is a move to lock down investigation and use of HCQ. That seems to be a warning sign, too.

    KF

  133. 133
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N VF hit piece on the Zelenko trial . . . pre-emptive strike? See https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/documents-expose-fda-commissioners-interventions-on-behalf-of-trump/amp This is really sad to see. KF

  134. 134
    Ed George says:

    KF

    EG, community spread “outside” of such homes where the homes interact with the community through staff etc and constitute 40% of cases, is not so easily severed from what is going on in the homes.

    Au contraire mon cher (apologies for my French). Once we noticed the situation in the nursing homes they were locked down. Unfortunately it was too late for the nursing homes because the virus had already infiltrated. But once that was done I have not heard of any significant spread from nursing homes to the community, although I am sure there were some isolated incidents.

  135. 135
    ET says:

    I love how Acartia Eddie talks from its position of non-authority as if it is fact. And how it ignores facts that contradict its non-authority…

  136. 136
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, First, (very) early spread feeds exponential growth which then propagates in an avalanche; there is a saying about barn doors and bolted horses. And, Canada is not the focus of my point, the general neighbourhood of the Hudson Estuary is. A specific local part of a well known federal entity, and not the confederation based at Turtle Bay on a famous island. KF

  137. 137
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: I mark up a money shot paragraph from the VF article, which exposes many layers of what is going on:

    >>A growing body of clinical studies>>

    — these focus on the phase far down the descending arm of the U, as will come out momentarily

    — this is irrelevant to high up, in early phases, as was already noted.

    >> indicates that hydroxychloroquine is ineffective in treating COVID-19>>

    — using Gold Standard fallacy to dismiss the misframing on timing and the evidence of thousands of cases regarding early treatment

    >> and may actually increase mortality.>>

    — the very opposite of evidence on what happens early in the descending arm, ie we see suppression of the stitch in time issue

    >> The World Health Organization, the National Institutes of Health, the FDA, and the pharmaceutical company Sanofi, which sells hydroxychloroquine under the brand name Plaquenil, have all issued guidelines cautioning against the kind of early, prophylactic use of the drug that Trump has hyped>>

    — the misframing at the pivot of the issue is dismissed based on appeal to authority, authority being used to lock out what works, early treatment; based on what happens when things have gone into serious damage that is then hard to treat successfully with anything.

    >> and Zelenko advocates.>>

    –pray thee, tell us WHY does Dr Zelenko advocate that early treatment under a precise, tailored, physician-supervised protocol may be more effective than trying to come back from serious damage to the vitals by a fast moving disease?

    — this is setting up and knocking over a strawman under weight of presumed but misframed authority.

    >> On Friday a retrospective study of 96,000 COVID-19 patients on six continents, published in the medical journal The Lancet, >>

    — the manifestly deeply flawed study (by misframing when treatments begin . . . too late) I commented on point by point here: https://uncommondescent.com/medicine/doctor-ivette-lozano-from-dallas-texas-on-treating-patients-with-hcq-cocktails/#comment-702509

    >>found that hospitalized patients >>

    — smoking gun on being too far down the descending arm of the U, where Dr Raoult’s 500+ CT scans show lung lesions are likely already there when “mild” symptoms begin

    — that in turn suggests other damage to other organs and systems likely to be attacked, including the heart.

    — this is a race to beat advancing damage

    >> treated with hydroxychloroquine and an antibiotic—part of the drug combination Zelenko has plugged—were 45% likelier to die.>>

    — Of course, fails to address the issue that the disease itself attacks the cardiovascular system and is likely to do damage to the heart all by itself, fails to recognise variations such as doxycycline, fails to look at the report in the NY press that Ivermectin added to the cocktail may help reach down lower on the descending arm to pull up patients otherwise in serious trouble.

    This is a capital example of irresponsible journalistic bias building on serious errors of method in investigation by those responsible to get things right in a life and death situation for the world.

    This is what we are up against.

    KF

  138. 138
    jerry says:

    This is what we are up against.

    The resistance to the truth about HCQ in the press is just a replay of past hoaxes in the last 4 years. When one gets exposed, another pops up. HCQ is just the latest. They don’t care if people die, it is just a statistic to them in the fight against what they do not like.

    The interesting question at the bottom of all this hostility to the truth is just what is it they don’t like and why they don’t like it. The surface of it appears here to resistance to ID or anything else proposed by it and its defenders. It is not just here but everywhere in our current Western society.

    This site is like a magnet that draws the flies to honey but it is only a very small dose of honey so only a few appear but they are representative of the whole.

  139. 139
    rhampton7 says:

    South Dakota is going forward with plans to test an anti-malaria drug in small doses to prevent COVID-19, Gov. Kristi Noem announced Thursday.

    Noem enlisted Dr. Allison Suttle, Sanford Health’s chief medical officer, to explain that this trial is different. Instead of administering the drug to people with serious cases of COVID-19, it will give smaller doses to people who have been exposed to the coronavirus in the hope it helps their immune system ward off the virus.

    Sanford is no longer recommending people with serious cases of COVID-19 take the drug.

    https://apnews.com/b3b17419137310e37aded9d2f9400258

  140. 140
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry, yes. What do you think is happening as more and more people see that they cannot trust the media, the experts, the pundits, the big names to get things right or to be fair or to be prudent? Even with things directly in hand, here and now with lives on the line? KF

  141. 141
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, at least, someone is beginning to notice the stitch in time principle. KF

  142. 142
    rhampton7 says:

    Dr. Raoult’s unorthodox approach to medicine has made him an easy target by those who see any sort of deviation from the process as plain quackery. Dr. Raoult has been called a fraud despite the fact that some of the results he has been able to produce remain hard to refute.

    I placed a call onto my friend Dr. Mohammed Bourdi, a very well established toxicologist who has about 27 years of experience under his belt with the prestigious National Institute of Health (NIH) and who has recently embarked on a new journey with a pharmaceutical company out of Maryland.

    My inquiry was blunt, unequivocal, and coming from someone with zero medical background. If Dr. Raoult was such a hack, why is there so much pushback against him? Why don’t they let him dig his own demise?

    Dr. Bourdi insists that proper protocol was not followed and no matter what kind of desired results Dr. Raoult keeps churning out, a single outlier is enough to send his entire scientific edifice into a tailspin.

    He explains that as long as no control groups are tested and no substantial clinical testing is run at a massive scale, a good outcome should be chalked up as no more than a feel good story that can’t rise to the level of scientific data.

    https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2020/05/304134/hydroxycloroquine-debate-the-tragedy-of-cure-and-greed/

  143. 143
    rhampton7 says:

    The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the country’s apex medical research body, is reviewing the benefits of drugs ivermectin and doxycycline as potential therapy for Covid-19. The combination of these two drugs has been hailed by doctors in Bangladesh for yielding “astounding results”.

    “We are closely studying the drug ivermectin and its possible efficacy against Covid-19. We have used antibiotic doxycycline for long and its mechanism of working is fairly clear. However, the former needs to be studied more closely,” Nivedita Gupta, senior scientist at ICMR, told ThePrint.

    Out of 60 COVID-19 patients, all recovered as the combination of the two drugs were applied”, Professor Dr Md Tarek Alam, the head of medicine department at the Bangladesh Medical College Hospital (BMCH) told news agency PTI.

    The Bangladeshi doctors claimed that the efficacy of the ivermectin-doxycycline drug combination is quite high and it has helped in the recovery of patients afflicted with Covid-19 within four days. They also claimed that “there were no side effects” of this treatment.

    https://theprint.in/health/icmr-to-review-wonder-drug-combo-used-to-treat-covid-patients-in-bangladesh/432987/

  144. 144
    rhampton7 says:

    Turkey’s Science Board is examining the possible effects of hydroxychloroquine on COVID-19 patients in the face of claims that the drug may cause some complications, Professor Ahmet Demircan, a member of the board, has said

    “ This is a new disease and when the outbreak began, hydroxychloroquine was the only drug available. It has been long used in malaria treatment. Assertions against this particular drug have not yet been scientifically substantiated. It is too early to draw conclusions as more scientific research is needed,” according to Demircan, who is also the rector of Gazi University in Ankara.

    The science body is collecting data regarding the drug’s side effects from the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as across Turkey, he said.

    “We will have a clearer picture after the examination of those data. Depending on the findings, we will either recommend the use of the drug in fewer doses or replace it with alternative drugs,” Demircan said.

    https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/science-board-looks-at-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-in-turkeys-covid-19-treatment-155216

  145. 145
    rhampton7 says:

    All students and teachers at Jerusalem’s Gymnasia High School will enter quarantine for over a week after over 100 people there contracted COVID-19, in the largest concentrated outbreak of the virus since infections began to wane earlier this month.

    The outbreak at the school, plus a spread of cases that temporarily closed 17 other institutions around the country, has raised concerns of a potential second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.

    Despite the sharp increase in recent days in coronavirus infection rates focused on education institutions, cabinet ministers decided against a sweeping closure of schools during an overnight meeting.

    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a Saturday night press briefing, also said new restrictions could be introduced if the number of cases pick up. The next few days will be a “test,” he said.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-school-concerns-mount-all-from-jerusalem-high-school-hit-by-virus-isolated/

  146. 146
    rhampton7 says:

    Following is a transcript of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s remarks:

    As long as there is no vaccine for the virus, it will return and spread if we are not strict about being cautious. We are all called upon to continue adhering to the rules. When I say ‘we are all’ that includes me, my fellow ministers, MKs and it includes you – dear citizens of Israel.

    “The rules are simple: Maintain two meters’ distance. Wear masks in the public sphere. Wash your hands and maintain the rules of hygiene.

    “If we do not do this, there will be no choice but to go back to restrictions on the economy and in the public sphere. If we do this, we will be able to continue to open our economy, bring back jobs, restore growth and restore hope.

    “From now on, we will do three things in tandem: We will tighten the discipline regarding the corona rules that had loosened. We will encourage activity by businesses that respect this discipline and we will act against whoever does not strictly uphold the rules and thus endangers the health of us all.“

    https://www.jewishpress.com/news/health-and-medicine/coronavirus/live-netanyahu-says-pandemic-in-israel-wont-be-over-till-we-have-a-vaccine-so-follow-the-rules-or-return-to-lockdown/2020/05/30/

  147. 147
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, all you have established is how deeply a serious error of inductive warrant (thus of logic and epistemology both, with ethical import) has been entrenched. The decision theory results I have pointed to are not strange or even counter-intuitive; this is not like the motion of gyroscopes or quantum theory or relativity. The idea that common practice producing reliably unsatisfactory results can be responsibly challenged by an alternative that shows a better result consistently in a context where there is not the time for placebo controlled trials, and where there is a serious issue that one is giving sugar pills to people facing a fast moving damaging and too often fatal disease should not even be controversial as a way forward. The ethical challenges of placebo use i/l/o the first do no harm principle are well known. All of this is quite sad, but it is where we are today. KF

  148. 148
    kairosfocus says:

    PS: I remind, from No 55 in the Dr Lozano thread. This is Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, with a professor and with a French doctoral graduate:

    Observe:

    Unleash the Data on COVID-19

    By Maryaline Catillon and Richard Zeckhauser*

    Given the lethality of the COVID-19 pandemic, the urgent need is for actionable information directing care towards treatments offering higher probabilities of improving outcomes and preventing death. In normal times, randomized control trials (RCTs) would be the gold standard for determining whether innovative medical treatments are safe and effective. But with 1,500 Americans dying every day, these are hardly normal times.

    There is an urgent need for high quality studies based on real world experience, which has already accumulated for many thousands of patients. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s pandemic physician in chief, said that RCT results will not be available “for months”. The disease will not wait.

    RCTs, which randomly assign patients to a treatment or a control group, are only ethically acceptable when the safety and performance of a treatment is unknown. When ample data exists, as now, that criterion is not met.

    Analyzing real world data on actual outcomes, when it exists in abundance, offers an alternative approach to learn almost immediately. Moreover, it avoids the ethical challenge of an RCT, given that available data could predict outcomes. Massive numbers of COVID-19 patients are currently being administered “unproven” drugs based on medical decisions made by doctors. Massive numbers are not receiving any such drugs. Thus, carefully designed case control studies could leverage differences between ongoing protocols at large hospital systems and detailed information from patients’ electronic medical records. That could determine whether widely employed hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, provides significant benefits, and at which stages to which patients, and could provide similar information on the risks it imposes. It could yield the same information about remdesivir, and about many other drug treatments currently in use. [–> sounds familiar? That’s been a line of argument I have pointed to for weeks]

    For each patient, doctors strive to optimize treatment in the current, uncertain environment. These drug versus non-drug decisions constitute an ongoing large observational study, in which the allocation to treatment and control groups varies widely. The large numbers of patients treated eliminates concerns that random variation might lead to misleading results. Those large numbers also yield results by demographic, comorbidities, and stage of disease. Leveraging real world evidence is more acceptable ethically when extensive information is already available.

    As decision theorists who have studied the methodological quality of vast numbers of RCTs, we are enthusiasts for well-conducted RCTs. But delaying public health recommendations till RCTs are completed is not appropriate in the present circumstance. Imminent threats are enormous and widespread data is easily at hand. The outcomes of the thousands of individuals who have already received drug therapies on an ad hoc basis should inform practice now . . . .

    High quality case control studies based on thousands of cases, the silver standard we recommend, are immensely faster than RCTs. Recent articles in the world’s leading medical journals show that they consistently yield the same major findings. Experience with the recommendations of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV provides an instructive warning. Even though 20 years of observational studies demonstrated its enormous benefits, the World Health Organization waited until 2015 and the publication of the first set of RCT results (which reached the same conclusions) to make a “treat all” recommendation. Many lives were lost as the world waited for its recommendation.

    COVID-19 presents its own example. Through late March, medical authorities recommended the general public not employ masks to protect against it. In early April, that all switched: masks became strongly recommended. No RCT supported this reversal; little evidence was mounted. Yet officials applauded, the public widely complied, and the world was better off.

    Well conducted includes ethical criteria. Of course. But such is obviously at a discount today.

    And notice the by now familiar context: decision theory.

  149. 149
    rhampton7 says:

    Finally, some solid evidence:

    As many as 80% of the health care workers (HCWs) on six or more prophylactic doses of the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) were not infected by Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes the coronavirus disease (COvid-19), according to a new pre-print study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) — a finding that could establishing the prophylactic properties of the drug against Covid-19, even as several international studies have dismissed its utility as a therapeutic.

    The results are based on a case control study for which participants were randomly drawn from the countrywide Covid-19 testing data portal maintained by ICMR. The test results and contact details of health care workers (HCWs), diagnosed as positive (cases) or negative (controls) for Sars-CoV-2 using the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test, were available from this database.

    “ The main conclusion that can be drawn after analyzing the data is that HCQ has beneficial effects in infection risk reduction from fourth dose onwards. The first loading dose of 800mg and then every week a dose of 400 mg for 4, 6 or more weeks as per your physician’s advice will help cut the risk of infection by 80% in healthcare workers who are not already sick,” says Dr Samiran Panda, director, ICMR-National AIDS Research Institute, the study co-author.

    https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/80-dip-in-infection-risk-for-health-staff-on-hcq-study/story-4Btz0DoDQtM0qacOCWZn7I.html

  150. 150
    jerry says:

    I placed a call onto my friend Dr. Mohammed Bourdi, a very well established toxicologist who has about 27 years of experience under his belt with the prestigious National Institute of Health (NIH) and who has recently embarked on a new journey with a pharmaceutical company out of Maryland.

    When. there is no alternative treatment, the control group are the rest of the infected world receiving no treatment. He seems to be ignorant of what is necessary to assess the effect of a treatment. We have lots of information for the no treatment control group.

    This doctor’s assessment is meaningless at best.

    Left out from the article referenced by RHampton’s brief excerpt is

    I am still hesitant to dismiss the sweeping success of Hydroxychloroquine in Morocco and other countries as a pure stroke of luck. Moroccan Minister of Health, Khalid Ait Taleb put out a statement distancing Morocco from the finding of Lancet Journal and the official position of the WHO cautioning against the use of Hydroxychloroquine.

    And a lot of other positive news on HCQ. Of course this is Morocco and from our superior arrogance who are we to look to Morocco for advice. They and several other countries have had incredibly good success with the drug that WHO once said was harmless but now kills when used for C19.

  151. 151
    rhampton7 says:

    KF, note that this study establishes dosages within a treatment plan. That’s just one of the purposes of the RCT.

    Unfortunately there is not enough HCT to put everyone not infected on such a regimen.

  152. 152
    rhampton7 says:

    Russia has confirmed 9,268 new COVID-19 cases in the past 24 hours, raising its total tally to 405,843, its coronavirus response center said in a statement Sunday. The death toll increased by 138 to 4,693, while 171,883 people have recovered, including 4,414 over the last 24 hours, according to the statement.

    Moscow, the country’s worst-hit region, reported 2,595 new confirmed COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, taking its total to 180,791. As of Saturday, 305,384 people were under medical observation, and more than 10.6 million lab tests for COVID-19 have been conducted nationwide, Russia’s consumer rights and human well-being watchdog Rospotrebnadzor said in a statement Sunday.

    https://www.timesnownews.com/international/article/covid-19-pandemic-russia-sees-record-rise-as-coronavirus-cases-surge-past/599516

  153. 153
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, oil is still there, refineries are still there, chemical process units, piping, instrumentation and engineers are still there, stainless steel etc are still there. I gather a decent pharmacist possibly could synthesise HCQ in his back room bench, though that would need confirmation. KF

  154. 154
    rhampton7 says:

    Of note, the current worldwide need of 300 metric ton for HCQ was spread out across an entire year and was met steadily, mostly for chronic diseases. The COVID-19 demand, however, is an immediate surge. For example, if 2% of the US population needs treatment, 40 metric tons of HCQ would be need urgently. If, however, 20% of the US population needs to be treated, 400 metric tons of HCQ would be needed in weeks. Globally, 2% treatment rate means a requirement of 1000 metric tons of the drug in weeks, or 3 times the current world annual production capacity. Can this be me withi reasonabls time?

    Under extreme circumstances, such as a global demand surge for 10,000 metric tons of HCQ to treat over up to 20% of the world population as illustrated on the far right column in Table 1, vitally necessary is the close international collaboration between global governments, pharmaceutical manufacturers and regulatory agencies in order to mobilize and coordinate worldwide resources to meet the demand. Lessons can be learned from the success of penicillin production scaled up from milligrams to metric tons within two years during the World War II. This was achieved with leadership for being accountable, courage for taking risks, can-do attitude and ingenuity from scientists and engineers, and commitment of the governments and enthusiastic participation by more than 20 private companies.

    In conclusion, we remain cautiously optimistic with the global manufacturing capability to ramp up production, meeting the demand for HCQ should it be proven efficacious by randomized clinical trials. Rationing and allocation to focus resources on the truly needy should be vigorously implemented to address the current shortage before large supply catches up. Considering that there is significant lead time to ramp up production at this scale, cost of API production is relatively small, staring materials are readily available, and the potential benefits and probability of HCQ be eventually proven efficacious [11] to help patients inflicted with COVID-19, immediate ramping up of production at risk as a contingency before definitive clinical trials conclude appears to be justifiable.

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590098620300233

  155. 155
    rhampton7 says:

    If we were to give everyone HCT to prevent Coronavirus, it would far exceed current manufacturing capacity, which is mostly in India and China. I see no indication that this is happening, other than China upping the price of raw materials by 4000% !

  156. 156
    rhampton7 says:

    The coronavirus pandemic has had a major impact on industries around the world, including Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) and finished drug formulation.

    Due to supply shortages for COVID drugs such as Hydroxychloroquine (HQQ), Paracetamol, and Acyclovir, there is a 1,000 – 2,000 fold increased demand across global regions, according to Beroe Inc, a procurement intelligence firm.

    The U.S. accounts for 28 percent of the FDA registered API manufacturing facilities, and is completely functional and intact as of today.

    India and China jointly account for 31 percent of FDA registered API manufacturing facilities, but supply more than 80-90 percent of raw materials to developed nations like the U.S. and those in Europe. The U.S. and European nations are now focussing on reshaping the pharmaceutical supply chain, understanding their reliance on the Asian Pacific countries for the pharmaceutical raw materials and generic drugs.

    On an average, API prices have increased by 10-15 percent since the COVID pandemic began, however, in some cases, the increase has been more than 50 percent. The highest price hike is visible for Hydroxychloroquine which has had a hike of 600 percent, followed by Nimesulide with a hike of 185 percent, and Azithromycin with 96 percent. Other API price hikes include Ornidazole with a 73 percent hike, Paracetamol with 62 percent, Montelukast sodium with 52 percent, and Penicillin with a price hike of 40 percent.

    https://www.ptcommunity.com/wire/coronavirus-leads-multi-fold-increase-api-demand-beroe-analysis

  157. 157
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, the 100 mn BBL/day production potential for oil obtains, we see consequences of ill advised offshoring of strategic industries to geostrategic competitors and states with inherently poor governance systems. Dislocations are predictable, but temporary. Look at how oil fell into the $20’s and even for a moment WTI futures went negative as it was cheaper to pay others to take it off one’s hands than to try to store it. Oil is a key feedstock and Coal a key alternative. Fluctuations will settle out. KF

    PS: Protocols with appropriate doses have been on the table from several sources, backed up by decades of experience. They are similar in range.

  158. 158
    jerry says:

    Is Africa practicing better medicine than Europe and the United States on C19?

    https://bit.ly/3eCqMsR

    Interesting question?

  159. 159
    kairosfocus says:

    H’mm: GT Result from what looks like Young Africa:

    >>Health
    Hydroxychloroquine still popular in Africa, despite controversy
    May 30, 2020 at 5:28 pm | By Marième Soumaré
    Updated on May 30, 2020 at 5:48 p.m.
    A coronavirus screening campaign in Johannesburg, South Africa, May 8, 2020.

    Adopted in Africa since the start of the pandemic, the famous “Raoult protocol”, mixing chloroquine and azithromycin, continues to be used in many countries, despite warnings from WHO following the study published by “The Lancet ”.

    The response will not be long in coming. Less than a week after the publication in the prestigious scientific journal The Lancet of a study questioning the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine against the coronavirus, the infectiologist Didier Raoult published new results to defend his treatment.

    “Early diagnosis, early isolation and early treatment with at least three days of HCQ-AZ provide significantly better clinical outcome and contagiousness in patients with Covid-19 than other treatments,” concludes l ‘study. It is based on the clinical management of 3,737 patients, the majority (81.7%) of whom have been treated with the famous HCQ-AZ process: the hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin combination.>>

  160. 160
    rhampton7 says:

    Russia — along with Nigeria and Spain, among other countries — has stood by its use of the drug, which the Health Ministry recommends as both a treatment for coronavirus patients and a preventative measure for the over-60s and anyone who has been in contact with the virus or spends time around patients.

    Not all of Russia’s medical experts agree.

    “We should abolish the use of this tool to combat the coronavirus in Russia,” Vadim Pokrovsky, head of the Federal Center for Fighting AIDS, told the online Gazeta.ru outlet last Tuesday.

    The expert, who has years of experience using experimental drugs in treating confounding diseases, explained that the anti-inflammatory effects researchers had banked on hadn’t panned out, while the negative side effects outweighed any benefits.

    In interviews with over a dozen medical professionals working with coronavirus patients around Russia, The Moscow Times found that many — including entire hospitals — agree with Pokrovsky and are ignoring official guidelines.

    Andrei Zaytsev, the chief pulmonologist for the Defense Ministry, ruled out the use of hydroxychloroquine in his own Facebook post.

    “Our already low expectations regarding the possibilities of ‘antiviral therapy’ using lopinavir/ritonavir” — normally used for treating HIV — “and hydroxychloroquine did not materialize,” he wrote.

    https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/06/01/as-russian-officials-back-hydroxychloroquine-doctors-take-matters-into-their-own-hands-a70435

  161. 161
    rhampton7 says:

    Sweden will launch a probe into the country’s handling of the coronavirus after controversially refusing lockdown measures, its prime minister announced Monday.

    Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said a commission would be appointed before the end of summer to look back at the decision to keep most schools, restaurants and businesses open after the virus reached the nation.

    “We need to take an overall approach to see how it has worked at national, regional and local levels,” Lofven told Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet. “We will make a decision for a commission before the summer.”

    https://nypost.com/2020/06/01/sweden-to-launch-coronavirus-probe-after-refusing-to-lock-down/

  162. 162
    rhampton7 says:

    Thousands of Israeli pupils and staff were sent home Monday into quarantine as new cases of coronavirus were found at schools throughout the country.

    The Hadera Municipality announced the closure of a high school with some 2,200 students after a seventh grade girl was tested positive for COVID-19, Hebrew-language outlet Ynet reported.

    Link broken

  163. 163
    jerry says:

    Is Sweden doing badly because it apparently bungled treatment in elderly care facilities. https://bit.ly/2BgvmyC

    Upwards of 70 percent of the COVID-19 death toll in Sweden has been people in elderly care services (as of mid-May 2020). We summarize the COVID-19 tragedy in elderly care in Sweden, particularly in the City of Stockholm. We explain the institutional structure of elderly care administration and service provision. Those who died of COVID-19 in Stockholm’s nursing homes had a life-remaining median somewhere in the range of 5 to 9 months. Having contextualized the COVID-19 problem in City of Stockholm, we present an interview of Barbro Karlsson, who works at the administrative heart of the Stockholm elderly care system. Her institutional knowledge and sentiment offer great insight into the concrete problems and challenges. There are really two sides to the elderly care COVID-19 challenge: The vulnerability and frailty of those in nursing homes and the problem of nosocomial infection—that is, infection caused by contact with others involved in the elderly care experience. The problem calls for targeted solutions by those close to the vulnerable individuals.

    They apparently did the same thing as Cuomo and sent infected patients back into elderly care facilities. There was also a policy of no treatment in hospitals even with antibiotics for things like pneumonia but just palliative care.

    Is it possible that the Sweden model has been successful but medical care was extremely inadequate especially for the elderly.

  164. 164
    rhampton7 says:

    Egypt’s coronavirus infection numbers fall short of accuracy, the country’s higher education and scientific research minister said on Monday.

    The country’s real tally of infections is five times higher than data announced by the country’s Health Ministry, while the actual number of deaths is 10 times higher than official figures, local media quoted Khalid Atef Abdul Ghaffar as saying.

    Egypt’s total number of coronavirus cases has surpassed 117,000, while the number of virus-linked deaths has exceeded 9,000, Ghaffar said.

    Egypt’s Health Ministry reported 46 new deaths on Monday, bringing the country’s official total to 959.

    The ministry said in a statement that there were a total of 24,985 confirmed cases in the country.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/health/-egypt-s-real-virus-figures-higher-than-official-ones/1861400

  165. 165
    rhampton7 says:

    An arthritis drug may be a life-saving coronavirus treatment and reduce the need for patients to be placed on ventilators, according to French doctors.

    The doctors administered anakinra, an anti-inflammatory drug normally used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, to 52 Covid-19 patients at the Saint-Joseph public hospital in Paris between March 24 and April 6 and compared their progress with that of 44 historical coronavirus patients at the hospital who were not treated with the drug.

    Thirteen (25 per cent) of the patients injected subcutaneously with anakinra either died or had to be placed on ventilators, compared with 32 patients (73 per cent) in the historical group.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/01/arthritis-drug-may-aid-virus-fight-french-doctors-say/

  166. 166
    Ed George says:

    I have been looking through the plots in worldometers for daily new cases and the one fairly common trend is a very rapid initial increase to a peak followed a less steep But consistent decline. A few exceptions are Poland, Sweden and the US. These countries have extended plateaus or very gradual declines.

  167. 167
    Bob O'H says:

    Is it possible that the Sweden model has been successful but medical care was extremely inadequate especially for the elderly.

    They’ve had 436 deaths per million, whilst next door in Norway we’ve had 44 per million (data from Worldometers). So unless over 90% of the Swedish deaths have been in care homes, they will still have had more deaths outside of that population than Norway has. The only way I can see poor elderly care making a difference is if there is a massive spill-back into the general population.

  168. 168
    RavenT says:

    According to statista, only 11% of death in Sweden is younger than 70 years old (4% for below 60). I think I read somewhere half of the elder live in care homes.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

    PS: I have no clue how to hyper link in this comment

  169. 169
    jerry says:

    So unless over 90% of the Swedish deaths have been in care homes, they will still have had more deaths outside of that population than Norway has.

    I have no idea what your point is. I provided an estimate of the percentage of deaths that were in care homes.

    I also never said it. was equivalent to Norway.

    But it is interesting that it is not has high as many of the countries in Europe that shut down. And would it be even lower if they took good care of their elderly which is my point. Also an alternative hypothesis suppose the elderly deaths in care homes was the same rate as the rest of the world. This means that the death rate in the non elderly population is much less than most of those countries that shut down.

    Also apparently the rate of deaths in Stockholm is much higher than the rest of Sweden.

    Comparing it to Norway may be useful or it may be not because the two countries took different strategies. I believe Norway locked down a lot more than Sweden. In the United States there were 51 different strategies.

    Since you live in Norway, why don’t you describe what they did. Also do you expect the strategy Norway used is applicable for the future. If people are not getting the virus as much in Norway will that be true once they open up or will they have to be closed indefinitely.

    Maybe you want to comment on what are the prospects of each strategy, opening up vs permanent lockdown.

  170. 170
    jerry says:

    PS: I have no clue how to hyper link in this comment

    How much HTML do you know? If you know basic coding, the go to the internet and look up embedding a link in text. It will then allow you to do it here except the code will place some extraneous code in the HTML automatically.

  171. 171
    Bob O'H says:

    Jerry – you were suggesting that the Swedish approach might have been correct, other than how they had dealt with care homes. But if you compare it with its neighbours (which are also similar culturally), the deaths are so much larger that it’s unlikely that the difference is due to care homes.

    Comparing it to Norway may be useful or it may be not because the two countries took different strategies. I believe Norway locked down a lot more than Sweden.

    Yes, we did. Which is almost certainly why we have so many fewer deaths.

  172. 172
    jerry says:

    you were suggesting that the Swedish approach might have been correct, other than how they had dealt with care homes.

    You use two qualifying words, “suggesting” and “might”. Which means that I wasn’t making an absolute claim. Which I wasn’t. So why imply that I was.

    We don’t know if it was better or not because we do not know the alternative effects which are not captured in the numbers of deaths. There are two major alternative effects that are unknown at this point in time. The number of future deaths because the population has not been exposed and the problems with the economic effects of the shutdown.

    Neither of which you addressed and I did. I just was pointing out that you cannot compare the two because they are extremely different situations.

    Now if I said

    the Swedish approach was the correct approach, especially if they dealt effectively with care homes.

    you might have a point but this statement could still be absolutely correct and you don’t know if it is or isn’t. No one does.

    Now if you want to know what I believe is the best approach. It is

    Open up the economy as normal and treat all potential cases early (with effective treatments) especially the elderly. I posted a couple times to an effective strategy for opening up the US by Dr. Todaro who estimates the death rate will be .03 percent or less. So I am arguing for the Swedish approach with effective treatment. The Swedes did not do any effective treatment and still their death rate is not as great as most of Europe.

  173. 173
    rhampton7 says:

    University of Minnesota Medical School researchers have published results from a study which determine that hydroxychloroquine is not able to prevent symptoms of COVID-19.

    The University of Minnesota’s study, which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine, determined approximately 12% of those given the drug developed COVID-19 symptoms, compared to 14% in those given the vitamin placebo. The statistical difference, they said, was nonexistent; it would equate to treating 42 people with hydroxychloroquine in order to prevent one infection.

    Additionally, 40% of participants who took hydroxychloroquine developed side-effects: nausea, an upset stomach, or diarrhea. But the participants did not develop cardiac complications or other serious side-effects.

    https://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2020/06/03/u-of-m-researchers-determine-hydroxychloroquine-does-not-prevent-covid-19/

  174. 174
    rhampton7 says:

    The average patient who received hydroxychloroquine for a rheumatic disease was unlikely to achieve the total serum or plasma concentration necessary to inhibit the coronavirus in vitro, particularly at dosages of less than 400 mg per day, according to data published in The Journal of Rheumatology.

    “Our study addressed the important and unanswered question: Do patients with rheumatic disease already taking HCQ long-term achieve levels of the medication that have been shown to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in vitro?”

    “ Our data suggest that patients with rheumatic disease are unable to safely obtain the plasma HCQ levels needed to completely inhibit SARS-CoV-2 based on the in vitro studies, indicating that HCQ is unlikely to be effective in the setting of SARS-CoV-2 viremia,” Balevic said. “While it is possible that patients achieve significantly higher HCQ levels in the lung tissue, animal studies suggest several months of treatment is necessary to reach peak tissue concentrations.”

    “Therefore, we should interpret the results of current clinical trials for HCQ and COVID-19 separately in the context of whether dosing was short term vs. long-term,” he added. “Ultimately, we highlight the need for high-quality clinical trial data to clarify HCQ’s effectiveness, safety, and goal concentrations in the target tissue for SARS-CoV-2 before any specific dosage adjustments can be recommended.“

    https://www.healio.com/news/rheumatology/20200602/longterm-hydroxychloroquine-use-for-rheumatic-disease-unlikely-to-prevent-covid19

  175. 175
    rhampton7 says:

    Hydroxychloroquine is not effective in preventing the development of COVID-19 in people exposed to the novel coronavirus, a new study involving Canadian researchers concludes.

    The results are published today in the New England Journal of Medicine.

    The clinical trial was led in Canada by Dr. Todd Lee and Dr. Emily McDonald of the Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, in conjunction with partners at the University of Manitoba and University of Alberta.

    “ We conducted an international, randomized controlled trial to look at whether the use of hydroxychloroquine in patients who’d had a high-risk exposure to COVID-19 would prevent the development of symptomatic disease compared to placebo,” Lee said in an interview.

    Participants were recruited from Quebec, Manitoba, Alberta and across the United States. In total, the study involved 821 asymptomatic adults who had been exposed at home or in the health-care setting to someone with COVID-19.

    https://www.airdrietoday.com/national-news/hydroxychloroquine-does-not-prevent-covid-after-exposure-to-the-virus-study-2406921

  176. 176
    rhampton7 says:

    Sweden’s chief epidemiologist showed contrition Wednesday as criticism mounted over the Scandinavian country’s hotly debated method of fighting the coronavirus, which has resulted in one of the highest death rates per capita in the world.

    “If we were to encounter the same disease again, knowing precisely what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” said Tegnell, considered the architect of the unique Swedish pandemic approach.

    Asked if the country’s high death toll has made him reconsider his unique approach to the pandemic, Tegnell answered “yes, absolutely.”

    https://www.arabnews.com/node/1684201/world

  177. 177
    rhampton7 says:

    The Education Ministry announced that 2,000 more students and educational staff entered quarantined on Wednesady and 19 more have tested positive for the coronavirus, raising the total number of those quarantined to 6,831 and of confirmed cases to 244 amid an outbreak in schools in Israel.
    Additionally, due to the worsening situation, two more schools closed on Wednesday along with four others the same day, bringing the total number of schools shut so far to 42. (Shira Kadari-Ovadia)

    Update: high school in the Tel Aviv suburb of Givatayim has closed after an 11th grade student tested positive for the coronavirus. The student’s mother was also diagnosed with COVID-19, and the student has been in quarantine for a week since his mother was diagnosed.

    Students and staff members who spent more than 15 minutes with the student who tested positive have been sent into isolation until June 7. The school will remain closed until students and staff complete two rounds of coronavirus testing, one to be carried out immediately and the other five days later. (Bar Peleg and Shira Kedari-Ovadia)

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-coronavirus-israel-live-worker-in-netanyahu-s-office-diagnosed-with-covid-19-1.8888326

  178. 178
    kairosfocus says:

    U/D: After ferocious warnings against HCQ based on a — flawed! — Lancet study, WHO seems to be quietly resuming trials (which, on track record, will likely be set up to fail):

    https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/after-temporary-pause-who-to-resume-hydroxychloroquine-trials/ar-BB14Z85N

    >> After ‘temporary pause’, WHO to resume hydroxychloroquine trials
    wionnewsweb@gmail.com (Wion Web Team)
    3 hours ago

    [share via email]
    Laboratory technicians sit next to boxes containing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) testing kits at a sample collection centre in Ahmedabad. (REUTERS)
    India lagging far behind on testing
    More than 26 lakh ration cards ‘unverified’
    Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus wearing a suit and tie © Provided by WION

    World Health Organization(WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that after a “temporary pause” clinical trials of the drug hydroxychloroquine will resume.>>

    I will shortly add a screen capture of the WHO tweets at the linked, as demonstrated fact.

    I am going to bet that there was a roar of protest behind the scenes that was too strong to be dismissed. The implication of very carefully indirect words is that the sort of alleged leap in mortality suggested as due to HCQ is not solid enough to stand by the ferocious repudiation of a few days ago; so, there is an implicit climb-down. Wait for yet another study too far down the U.

    KF

  179. 179
    Ed George says:

    After high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to Covid-19, hydroxychloroquine did not prevent illness compatible with Covid-19 or confirmed infection when used as postexposure prophylaxis within 4 days after exposure.

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638?query=featured_home

  180. 180
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, there is enough data to show reasonable effectiveness. Note the results already given. KF

  181. 181
    jerry says:

    Who to believe?

    Sweden’s chief epidemiologist showed contrition Wednesday as criticism mounted over the Scandinavian country’s hotly debated method of fighting the coronavirus

    or

    Prof Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson admits Sweden used same science as UK but has suppressed coronavirus without tough restrictions

    https://bit.ly/36ZorWu

    Of course Ferguson’s opinions may be worthless.

    See discussion above on Sweden’s extremely poor handling of elder care residents who make up about 70% of the deaths. They did worse than Cuomo and that’s hard to imagine..

  182. 182
    jerry says:

    The Boulware study showed little effect of HCQ as a preventive of C19 for those closely exposed to another with virus. 12% of HCQ group came down with it to 14% for placebo. Zinc had no effect on outcome as a small group of participants used it.

  183. 183
    Ed George says:

    Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (the gold standard) was not effective at preventing COVID-19 in high risk subjects.

    We enrolled 821 asymptomatic participants. Overall, 87.6% of the participants (719 of 821) reported a high-risk exposure to a confirmed Covid-19 contact. The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%]); the absolute difference was ?2.4 percentage points (95% confidence interval, ?7.0 to 2.2; P=0.35). Side effects were more common with hydroxychloroquine than with placebo (40.1% vs. 16.8%), but no serious adverse reactions were reported.

  184. 184
    Ed George says:

    KF

    EG, there is enough data to show reasonable effectiveness.

    Except for all of the data showing no effectiveness.

  185. 185
    ET says:

    Could it be possible that there is data showing reasonable effectiveness of HCQ against covid-19 and data showing no effectiveness? Yes. And if you understand how HCQ affects the body such that it helps prevent the lungs from becoming infected, you would understand why that could be the case.

    I wonder if anyone is monitoring the patients’ pH levels?

  186. 186
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, immediately as we see resort to placebo control exercises in the face of such a fast moving, fatal disease, we have solid reason to question the prudence, ethics and logical soundness of relevant experimenters and decision-makers. They have failed the first duties of reason standard at the outset, at design phase. Duties, to truth, right reason, prudence, sound conscience, neighbour [life! safety! tort!], fairness, justice, etc. This, for reasons explained many times and as the Kennedy School of Government paper again excerpted in 148 above summarises. So, we have little reason to trust credibility or soundness of analysis going forward. Indeed, on track record, it seems that there are systematic biases that build in failures and improper — on epistemology, inductive logic and evidence grounds — locking out of material factors and facts. This, with life on the line in an existential crisis. If you make a crooked yardstick your standard of upright, straight and accurate you will systematically reject what is truly such. In this context, kindly note from 178 — rather than drown out — the evasive backing off that WHO just had to do. They obviously faced a firestorm of behind the scenes protests, but instead of admitting the flaws in what they did, they have resorted to oh we met and decided to proceed with . . . obviously deeply flawed, likely biased and untrustworthy . . . trials. Lack of straightforwardness is the key governance failure sign as to what is going on. KF

    PS: In the end, it is clear that the albatross around our collective necks is the utterly corrosive effect of enabling the ongoing holocaust of our living posterity in the womb, currently at a bit under a million further victims per week and amounting to 800+ millions in 40+ years. The morally broken heart is deceitful, desperately wicked and beyond merely human cure. That’s why Colson was so prone to remind us of how Solzhenitsyn warned that the line between good and evil passes through the individual human heart.

  187. 187
    kairosfocus says:

    More on Lancet:

    https://news.yahoo.com/lancet-casts-doubt-over-hydroxychloroquine-study-130453194.html

    >>The Lancet casts doubt over hydroxychloroquine study
    [AFP Relax News]
    AFP Relax News•June 3, 2020
    The Lancet has issued an “expression of concern” over a large-scale study of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine it recently published.

    The Lancet has issued an “expression of concern” over a large-scale study of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine it published that led to the World Health Organization suspending clinical trials of the anti-viral drugs as a potential treatment for COVID-19.

    In a statement, the medical journal acknowledged “important” questions over the research, after dozens of scientists issued an open letter last week raising concerns about its methodology and transparency around the data, which was provided by the firm Surgisphere.

    “Although an independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere and is ongoing, with results expected very shortly, we are issuing an Expression of Concern to alert readers to the fact that serious scientific questions have been brought to our attention,” The Lancet said Tuesday.

    While an expression of concern is not as severe as a journal withdrawing a published study, it signifies that the research is potentially problematic. >>

    This was peer reviewed and was used to drive policy, not to mention to try to do a reputation kill?

    KF

  188. 188
    rhampton7 says:

    Most readers will have heard that this paper appeared in the NEJM late yesterday afternoon: it’s something that we haven’t had so far, an actual randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled hydroxychloroquine trial. This one was for post-exposure prophylaxis, a mode of treatment made famous by President Trump when he stated several times that he was taking the drug after people in the White House had tested positive.

    Tthere was no statistical difference in infection rate between the HCQ group and the placebo group. On the plus side, no arrhythmias were known to develop in the former (albeit without ECG monitoring, so it would have had to have been severe), and dropout rates were basically identical in the two groups. Side effects were more common in the treatment group, generally GI discomfort. For those who are wondering, there were smaller numbers of people in both groups who were taking zinc supplements, and there was no difference between them, either.

    So this trial was negative, although one should remember that it could have missed asymptomatic cases. It also tended to enroll relatively healthy people, and can’t speak to any possible protection of high-risk groups. You may also disagree with the initial design to detect 50% reduction in infections, although the HCQ fans would likely have expected at least that much. But within those limits, it provides no evidence that there is a prophylactic effect. From what I can see, the biggest evidence to the contrary is this retrospective analysis from the Indian Council of Medical Research looking at health care workers in that country taking prophylactic doses of HCQ, which found a significant risk reduction. That’s not a controlled trial, of course (and its authors conclude with a statement beginning “Until results of clinical trials for HCQ prophylaxis become available. . .”), but it is worth taking into account. The arguing will continue.

    https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/04/hydroxychloroquine-for-avoiding-infection

  189. 189
    rhampton7 says:

    More than one-third of patients with lupus have experienced significant issues filling their hydroxychloroquine prescription during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the results of a survey released May 28 by the Lupus Research Alliance.

    The Lupus Research Alliance conducted an online survey (May 6 to 18) to better understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ability of people with lupus to continue treatment with hydroxychloroquine. In total, 334 responses were completed from patients in 42 states, with 63 percent reporting having taken hydroxychloroquine for more than five years (mean, 11.4 years).

    https://www.physiciansweekly.com/one-third-of-lupus-patients-have-trouble-refilling-hydroxychloroquine-2/

  190. 190
    Bob O'H says:

    If you make a crooked yardstick your standard of upright, straight and accurate you will systematically reject what is truly such.

    Indeed.

  191. 191
    bornagain77 says:

    Authors Retract Study That Found Risks of Using Antimalaria Drug Against Covid-19
    Three authors involved in Lancet article that drew scrutiny said they couldn’t get full data set behind study – June 4, 2020 3:51 pm
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/authors-retract-study-that-found-risks-of-using-antimalaria-drug-against-covid-19-11591299329

  192. 192
    rhampton7 says:

    Interview with Matthew F. Pullen, MD, infectious diseases and international medicine physician at the University of Minnesota and one of the investigators on the recent hydroxychloroquine prophylaxis trial (above)

    Contagion®: Was your team surprised by the results?

    Pullen: I think, throughout the process, most of us had kind of mixed feelings. We weren’t sure how it was going to pan out, especially as some of these observational studies started coming in, some positive, some negative. With a lot of them, it’s hard to really tell what to make of the data due to the inherent issues with observational studies, and then some of the issues within those studies themselves. So seeing that kind of mixed bag of results from other studies made us feel like each outcome was probably equally likely. But it was nice to get a pretty solid answer rather than something that was borderline.

    https://www.contagionlive.com/news/hydroxychloroquine-as-postexposure-prophylaxis-for-covid19-clinical-takeaways

  193. 193
    rhampton7 says:

    Over 20 more schools were closed Thursday due to coronavirus infections, as Israel recorded the largest single day rise in coronavirus infections in over a month.

    According to the Education Ministry, 87 schools and daycares have now been closed to stem the spread of the virus, up from 65 earlier in the day.

    The ministry said 301 students and teachers have tested positive for COVID-19 during the fresh outbreak, with another 13,696 people in quarantine because of potential exposure to the virus.

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/over-20-more-schools-closed-as-israel-sees-largest-daily-virus-rise-in-a-month/

  194. 194
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Lancet retracts the study that was blazed across headlines and used to stigmatise HCQ as deadly to patients, leading to declarations by WHO etc. As such, this updates 187 above on the audit on the article, it could not be completed. Hence, the retraction. Statement:

    https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246

    >>Statement from The Lancet

    Today, three of the authors of the paper, “Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis”, have retracted their study. They were unable to complete an independent audit of the data underpinning their analysis. As a result, they have concluded that they “can no longer vouch for the veracity of the primary data sources.” The Lancet takes issues of scientific integrity extremely seriously, and there are many outstanding questions about Surgisphere and the data that were allegedly included in this study. Following guidelines from the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE), institutional reviews of Surgisphere’s research collaborations are urgently needed.

    The retraction notice is published today, June 4, 2020. The article will be updated to reflect this retraction shortly.>>

    HT, BA77 for a heads up.

    This is saddening, given the issues of lives on the line and obvious atmosphere-poisoning effect. How did this ever pass peer review?

    KF

  195. 195
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: NBC news gives some details, of ccourse speaking as though there is no good reason to acknowledge signs of effectiveness. Clipping:

    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/lancet-retracts-large-study-hydroxychloroquine-n1225091

    >>The Lancet retracts large study on hydroxychloroquine
    “A first-year statistics major could tell you about major flaws in the design of the analysis,” one expert said.

    A large study suggesting hydroxychloroquine does not benefit COVID-19 patients, and may even increase deaths, has been retracted. But that doesn’t mean hydroxychloroquine does — or does not
    June 4, 2020, 4:42 PM -04
    By Erika Edwards

    The medical journal The Lancet on Thursday retracted a large study on the use of hydroxychloroquine to treat COVID-19 because of potential flaws in the research data. The study, published two weeks ago, found no benefit to the drug — and suggested its use may even increase the risk of death.

    Thursday’s retraction doesn’t mean that the drug is helpful — or harmful — with respect to the coronavirus. Rather, the study authors were unable to confirm that the data set was accurate.>>

    Some pretty serious explanations by authors, Lancet, WHO and others are in order.

    KF

  196. 196
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N2, I note again from earlier today at 186:

    >> immediately as we see resort to placebo control exercises in the face of such a fast moving, fatal disease, we have solid reason to question the prudence, ethics and logical soundness of relevant experimenters and decision-makers. They have failed the first duties of reason standard at the outset, at design phase. Duties, to truth, right reason, prudence, sound conscience, neighbour [life! safety! tort!], fairness, justice, etc. This, for reasons explained many times and as the Kennedy School of Government paper again excerpted in 148 above summarises. So, we have little reason to trust credibility or soundness of analysis going forward. Indeed, on track record, it seems that there are systematic biases that build in failures and improper — on epistemology, inductive logic and evidence grounds — locking out of material factors and facts. This, with life on the line in an existential crisis. If you make a crooked yardstick your standard of upright, straight and accurate you will systematically reject what is truly such. >>

    There are pretty serious further questions to be answered.

    KF

  197. 197
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: There is another IHU Abstract preprint, on signs of CV19:

    https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/predictive-values-of-olfactory-and-gustative-disorders-for-the-diagnosis-of-covid-19-a-cohort-of-3497-patients-and-432-healthcare-workers/

    >>Abstract :

    Objectives– Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, olfactory and gustative disorders, up to anosmia and ageusia have been described in infected patients. The study aim’s was to measure the prevalence and the predictive values of recent smell and taste loss in a cohort of patients and health care workers (HCWs) tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
    Methods– This retrospective study was conducted in Marseille, France, at the Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée Infection. A total of 3,497 adults presented for SARS-CoV-2 PCR between 24 March and 25 April 2020. 432 healthcare workers (HCWs) also asked to be tested by PCR plus a serology assay. The following question was asked before being tested: “have you lost your sense of smell or taste in the past two months?”
    Results– SARS-CoV-2 PCR was positive in 673/3,497 patients (19.24%). The prevalence of the loss of smell and/or taste in COVID-19 patients was 356/673(53%), higher than in non-infected patients (257/2,824; 9.1%, p LT 0.001). The positive predictive value (PPV) for the diagnosis of COVID-19 was 67.15 % when smell and taste disorders were reported. A total of 432 HCWs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR and serology. The PPV of olfactory and/or gustatory dysfunction was 58.08%, and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 89.01%. Regarding the diagnosis of COVID-19 in 432 HCWs, the PPV of olfactory and/or gustatory dysfunction was 73%, and the NPV was 99%.

    Conclusions Questioning patients and HCWs about their sense of smell and taste could be useful in countries where testing is politically or technically limited.>>

    KF

  198. 198
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H: Given today’s development, prezactly. KF

  199. 199
    jawa says:

    KF @194:

    “How did this ever pass peer review?”

    Is there any guarantee that peer review is accurate, seriously impartial, unbiased, careful?

  200. 200
    kairosfocus says:

    Jawa, 195: >>“A first-year statistics major could tell you about major flaws in the design of the analysis,” one expert said.>> KF

  201. 201
    kairosfocus says:

    Very interesting to see . . .

  202. 202
    kairosfocus says:

    Muy interesante, no . . .

  203. 203
    kairosfocus says:

    WUWT, Leo Goldstein, May 2:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/02/pseudo-science-behind-the-assault-on-hydroxychloroquine/

    >>
    Pseudo-Science behind the Assault on Hydroxychloroquine
    Leo Goldstein / May 2, 2020

    This is a research article published as information for health care professionals and public officials, and for an open peer review. It is not medical advice.
    Summary

    I reviewed the scientific literature on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), azithromycin (AZ), and their use for COVID-19. My conclusions:

    HCQ-based treatments are effective in treating COVID-19, unless started too late.
    Studies, cited in opposition, have been misinterpreted, invalid, or worse.
    HCQ and AZ are some of the most tested and safest prescription drugs.
    Severe COVID-19 frequently causes cardiac effects, including heart arrhythmia. QTc prolonging drugs might amplify this tendency. Millions of people regularly take drugs having strong QTc prolongation effect, and neither FDA nor CDC bother to warn them. HCQ+AZ combination, probably has a mild QTc prolongation effect. Concerns over its negative effects, however minor, can be addressed by respecting contra-indications.
    Effectiveness of HCQ-based treatment for COVID-19 is hampered by conditions that are presented as precautions, delaying the onset of treatment. For examples, some states require that COVID-19 patients be treated with HCQ exclusively in hospital settings.
    The COVID-19 Treatment Panel of NIH evaded disclosure of the massive financial links of its members to Gilead Sciences, the manufacturer of a competing drug remdesivir. Among those who failed to disclose such links are 2 out of 3 of its co-chairs.
    Despite all the attempts by certain authorities to prevent COVID-19 treatment with HCQ and HCQ+AZ, both components are approved by FDA, and doctors can prescribe them for COVID-19. [MORE]>>

    A month later, this seems to stand up fairly well. By sharp contrast with what led to hasty official actions, to scare stories and bans but has now had to be retracted.

    KF

    PS: Letter of objections re Lancet paper https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6933411-Open-Letter-the-Statistical-Analysis-and-Data.html

  204. 204
    kairosfocus says:

    Chirp, chirp, chirp. Verrrrry interesting indeed in aftermath of the retraction of the Lancet paper. KF

  205. 205
    Ed George says:

    In the last month, Canada’s number of new daily cases has decreased by almost 60%. The US has declined by less than 1%.

    Food for thought.

  206. 206
    jerry says:

    Canada’s number of new daily cases has decreased by almost 60%

    Is that good or bad? And if so why?

    What is the proper metric for monitoring this disease? Is it cases, hospitalization or death? And over what time period is this metric to be measured?

  207. 207
    jerry says:

    Is the Boulware study meaningless?

    It is obvious that most of the studies making the news are meaningless because they are looking at patients far along in the process. But is Boulware guilty of the same thing by choosing an irrelevant population. The average age is 40 and the oldest is 51. They are not the population of interest which is 60+ or younger people with comorbidities.

    He is focused on getting the disease when the focus should be on hospitalization or not. So Boulware chose a population that is very unlikely to become hospitalized.

    Zelenko’s protocol.

    1) Treat the high risk group which are 60+ or younger with already existing serious illness.

    2) give the high risk group HCQ, zinc and Azithromycin immediately

    3) Let the low risk population fight the virus with their immune system but monitor.

  208. 208
    Ed George says:

    Jerry

    Is that good or bad? And if so why?

    Until a vaccine is available, the lower the rate of community spread, the fewer people die.

    Because of a disproportionate infection rate, the US has 60% more deaths per capita than Canada. This in a country who’s president claims that his response to the pandemic was “prefect”.

  209. 209
    jerry says:

    Until a vaccine is available, the lower the rate of community spread, the fewer people die.

    That could be over a year and in the mean time millions might die from other causes due to the shutdown. We do not know how to monitor these types of deaths on going but we know they will happen.

  210. 210
    Ed George says:

    Jerry

    That could be over a year and in the mean time millions might die from other causes due to the shutdown.

    Who said anything about a shutdown.? Canada is not completely locked down, and is opening more things every day.

  211. 211
    ET says:

    Acartia Eddie:

    Because of a disproportionate infection rate, the US has 60% more deaths per capita than Canada.

    We have larger cities. And those larger cities have a higher population density that Canada’s large cities.

    This in a country who’s president claims that his response to the pandemic was “prefect”.

    And the Governors’ weren’t.

    Comparing Canada to the USA is a fool’s errand designed to deceive.

  212. 212
    JVL says:

    ET: We have larger cities. And those larger cities have a higher population density that Canada’s large cities.

    Comparable to some European countries. And India and China are even further along those scales.

    The US (and the UK I have to say) have screwed the pooch regarding COVID-19. Germany seems to have got it right. I would have expected Canada’s results to be similar to the US’s so it may be down to geographic factors like population density. That comparison seems a bit more complicated.

  213. 213
    Ed George says:

    JVL

    I would have expected Canada’s results to be similar to the US’s so it may be down to geographic factors like population density. That comparison seems a bit more complicated.

    If you look at the rate of decline of new cases after the Initial peak, the US jumps out in that it’s rate of decline is very low when compared to almost every other country. Even countries with much larger densities.

  214. 214
    JVL says:

    Ed George: If you look at the rate of decline of new cases after the Initial peak, the US jumps out in that it’s rate of decline is very low when compared to almost every other country. Even countries with much larger densities.

    Yes, I know. But I don’t think (my memory may be at fault here) that Canada’s implementation of lockdowns or isolation orders was much different than that of the US. If it was then that would clearly be a factor.

    Like I said, the US and the UK really screwed the pooch regarding COVID-19. The US now has had over 110,000 deaths and is rapidly approaching 2 million total declared cases.

  215. 215
    ET says:

    LoL! The only thing anyone got wrong was what is required, nutrition-wise, for proper, healthy living. It is very telling that vitamin D deficient people are among the worst hit, for example. Hopefully someone does a study on the efficacy of OTC supplements with respect to fighting of viruses. It would be interesting to know what the supplement intake of all asymptomatic carriers is.

    We are an unhealthy race of humans. That is what we got wrong.

  216. 216
    ET says:

    It’s funny how the people who cherish natural selection bristle when they see it in action.

  217. 217
    JVL says:

    ET: It’s funny how the people who cherish natural selection bristle when they see it in action.

    I’m not bristling; I want to fight it as much as possible because it’s a heartless, cruel and indifferent process. It wastes countless number of lives and allows eons of agony and waste.

  218. 218
    ET says:

    So you want to fight the process you think is responsible for your existence? Really? Too funny.

  219. 219
    ET says:

    Ooops duplicate deleted.

  220. 220
    jerry says:

    Comparing Canada and the United States is probably meaningless. Why not compare each of the 50 states? Take Texas with a similar population as Canada (29 million vs 37 million and a much higher population density; 108 per sq mile vs 10.2 per sq mile).

    The deaths per million in Texas is 63 and in Canada it is 205. Now I know most of Canada is wilderness but if you eliminate 80% of Canada’s area, the population density of Texas is still twice as much.

    So I would not bring up Canada.

  221. 221
    JVL says:

    ET: So you want to fight the process you think is responsible for your existence? Really? Too funny.

    I do because it’s heartless and totally devoid of empathy.

    Cancer is perfectly natural, it happens. But I fight it, I look for ways to combat it. I hope to find ways so that fewer and fewer people have to lose their lives because of it. Same with polio, rubella, measles, malaria, ebola, SARS, MERS, COVID-19, etc.

    All of those things arose via unguided and natural processes. And I think we should fight them at every step of the way.

  222. 222
    ET says:

    JVL:

    All of those things arose via unguided and natural processes.

    That is about all unguided and natural processes are good for.

  223. 223
    Ed George says:

    Jerry

    Why not compare each of the 50 states?

    I would support making as many comparisons as possible. I would think any policy maker that didn’t would be negligent.

  224. 224
    ET says:

    Yes, the more data we have to compare, the lower the IFR is becoming.

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