BREAKING/DEVELOPING: Russia invades Ukraine

_{kairosfocus
February 24, 2022

Geo-strategic issues, News Highlights, rhetoric

5}_{Categories
Geo-strategic issues
News Highlights
rhetoric}

Share: Facebook; Twitter/X; LinkedIn; Flipboard; Print; Email

Wikipedia initial map of the invasion, especially note a reported incursion from western Belarus and the main weight of reported bombings and incursions in the eastern trans-Dnieper region, the DonBass

BBC announces:

Russian forces have launched a military assault on neighbouring Ukraine, crossing its borders and bombing military targets near big cities.
A residential building in Chuguev was destroyed after it was shelled.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow’s response will be “instant” if anyone tries to take on Russia.
Ukraine has urged the UN “to do everything possible” to stop what it says is a full-scale war.

We could title this, the geostrategic price of weakness, starting with the USA. Recall here, my 2016 framework:

Of course as this seems overnight the fog of war is very much in effect and we need to bear in mind that we are unlikely to have a full or reliable picture. DEVELOPING, UPDATES TO FOLLOW

U/D Feb 25, a map of the course of the invasion:

Wikipedia’s updated but provisional map c Feb 24, showing reported lines of thrust. Note, provisional

U/D Feb 27: Wiki Map Feb 26

Wiki map c Feb 26, showing lodgement areas, thrusts and move to decapitate by taking Kiev

U/D Feb 28, let’s insert the Feb 28 Wiki map to compare:

U/D Feb 27: HT Daily Mail, a map of detail fighting near Kiev:

HT, Daily Mail, on fighting near Kiev. Seizing an airport as an air head is a known standard modern tactic for the side with air superiority. Compare Bagram in Afghanistan and its abandonment just before the US fleeing from Afghanistan

U/D, Feb 27: Geostrategic considerations:

U/D Feb 28, Putin puts nuke forces to high alert, issues implied threats, even as he agrees to talks — vid:

U/D Mar 1: Overnight on the updated operational situation map at Wikipedia:

Update overnight Feb 28/Mar 1. We see a bridgehead across the Dnieper in the South coming from Crimea, with a column advancing NW. To the N, a cluster of breakouts on the E bank are beginning to fan out and another is joining with the enclave to the E. Other columns are pushing in from the N and E, and the siege of Kharkov and Kiev are also underway. Air strikes cluster on Kiev but are spread across the whole country.

U/D, March 3: The already taken zones are being consolidated and extended and columns are surging out. Most notably, from Crimea to the West, and the thrust to Kiev is being broadened.

U/D Mar 4: VDH analyses, pivoting on the Javelin anti-tank missile:

U/D March 5, map is revised on Mar 3rd:

Notice here fresh probes from White Russia, a thrust to the W along a major road net towards Poland, a swing back towards Kiev for a thrust that was apparently aiming to pinch off a chunk of Northern Ukraine continued columns from the NE and the continuation of the western breakout from Crimea. Kiev and Kharkov seem to be holding,

U/D2 Mar 5, a Daily Mail Map:

This Daily Mail map is more outline and differs in details but tells the same basic story.

U/D May 8, a screen shot from Russian TV with a marked up encirclement in the E:

Oh yes, apparently there is an enemies list:

All EU member States,
The USA
Australia
Albania
Andorra
Czech Republic
Great Britain (including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar)
Iceland
Canada
Liechtenstein
Micronesia
Monaco
New Zealand
Norway
Republic of Korea
San Marino
North Macedonia
Singapore
Taiwan
Ukraine
Montenegro
Switzerland
Japan

They left off a raft of UK OT’s there, including Cayman, Montserrat, Turks and Caicos Islands, Bermuda, Isle of Man, Falklands, Pitcairn, St Helena, South Georgia etc. I guess they list where their offshore accounts are and got frozen?

U/D March 9, Putin in Southern Africa as a trainer for guerilla leaders, 1973:

This is my comment on an iHarare piece brought to my attention by people inclined to cheer on anything that is suggested as aiding liberation from Western Imperialism. An objection was made in the combox, that Putin’s age would be 20-ish and his official life story puts him in law school at relevant times. I noted that he was KGB and we can expect contradictory narratives, where the window is that in which military service is likely. The association with two African Presidents of the left is noteworthy. I suggest, assume it is not in fact Putin, that would only lead to, Russians were engaged in geostrategic pushes in guise of liberation movements, some of which have proved disastrous for ordinary people in certain African countries. The geostrategic point remains.

U/D: Wiki map, March 6, showing armoured thrusts far beyond the zones identified in a Russian proposal for ceasefire terms. Notice, these are by and large conservative relative to what has been shown on Russian TV, scroll up:

U/D, Mar 15 – 20: Russian forces consolidate while keeping Kiev under pressure:

The consolidation ratchets up pressure on Ukraine, the attacks on the capital can lead to decision, negotiations seem stalled over Russia’s demand for neutrality, which has already been seen as invitation to invasion. Sanctions have been put in place but are seldom decisive.

Comments

I guess somebody poked the bear . "US-NATO military investments in Ukraine, there is the $ 10 billion investment foreseen by the plan that is being carried out by Erik Prince, founder of the US private military company Blackwater – now it is renamed Academy – which has supplied mercenaries to the CIA, the Pentagon, and the State Department for covert operations (including torture and murder), gaining billions of dollars. Erik Prince’s plan, revealed by an investigation of Time magazine, consists in creating a private army in Ukraine through a partnership between the Lancaster 6 Company, and the main CIA-controlled Ukrainian intelligence office. Through them, Prince has supplied mercenaries in the Middle East and Africa. It is not known, of course, what would be the task of the private army created in Ukraine by the founder of Blackwater certainly with CIA funding. However, it can be expected that it would conduct covert operations in Europe, Russia, and other regions from its Ukraine base. "Great Britain has concluded various military agreements with Kyiv investing, among other things, 1.7 billion pounds in upgrading Ukraine’s naval capabilities: this program provides for the arming of Ukrainian ships with British missiles, the production of joint 8 fast missile units, the construction of naval bases on the Black Sea and also on the Azov Sea between Ukraine, Crimea, and Russia." https://worldbeyondwar.org/blackwater-is-in-the-donbas-with-the-azov-battalion/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/09/01/joint-statement-on-the-u-s-ukraine-strategic-partnership/ Biden scandal in Ukraine. https://rumble.com/vw10rg-breaking-ukraine-press-release-about-joe-bidendeep-state-corruption-in-the-.html https://nabu-leaks.org/new-facts-of-international-corruption-and-external-governance-of-ukraine/Lieutenant Commander Data_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
02:55 PM
2
02
55
PM
PDT}

Sev, the Winter war counts. The Russians took huge losses but achieved their declared goals. And today, armoured concentrations backed by air superiority on classic tank warfare terrain -- the names of the cities are oh so familiar from 41 - 44, by mid 44 it moved on beyond Ukraine and White Russia -- counts. Kindly look at the sequence of maps in the OP. KFkairosfocus_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
02:47 PM
2
02
47
PM
PDT}

We must remember from Nov 42 to May 45, the USSR paid a huge butcher’s bill to advance from Volga to Berlin but advance they did. Battle of Berlin was comparable to WW1 battles. KF
In WWII, the Russians were highly motivated to drive out invaders who had committed unspeakable atrocities against their people. This time it's the Ukrainians who are strongly motivated to defend their homeland against invaders. I doubt Russian troops are anything like as determined. Motivation and morale are much more important factors in war than many people realize. They can't make up for overwhelming material and numerical superiority but they can go a long way. Maybe long enough to allow aid from the West to make up some of the difference.Seversky_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
01:34 PM
1
01
34
PM
PDT}

BO'H, to back up my recall from readings etc: https://www.history.com/news/what-was-the-winter-war
Russia’s feud with its Nordic neighbor began in 1939, when Soviet leader Joseph Stalin looked to expand his influence over Eastern Europe. Citing concerns about a potential attack by the Germans, Stalin demanded that Finland’s border with Russia be moved back 16 miles along the Karelian Isthmus to create a buffer zone around the city of Leningrad. He also wanted the Finns to hand over several islands in the Gulf of Finland and lease the Soviets territory on the Hanko Peninsula for construction of a naval base. The Soviets offered a large swath of Russian territory as part of the deal, but the Finns were suspicious of their motives and turned them down. On November 30, 1939, following a series of ultimatums and failed negotiations, the Soviet Red Army launched an invasion of Finland with half a million troops . . . . While the Finns put up a spirited resistance during the winter of 1939-1940, their troops were ultimately no match for the sheer immensity of the Red Army. In February 1940, following one of the largest artillery bombardments since World War I, the Soviets renewed their onslaught and overran the Finnish defenses on the Karelian Isthmus. With its forces low on ammunition and nearing the brink of exhaustion, Finland agreed to peace terms the following month. The treaty ending the Winter War forced Finland to cede 11 percent of its territory to the Soviet Union, yet the country maintained its independence and later squared off against Russia a second time during World War II. For the Soviets, meanwhile, victory came at a heavy cost. During just three months of fighting, their forces suffered over 300,000 casualties compared to around 65,000 for the Finns. The Winter War may have also carried important consequences for World War II. Among other things, the Red Army’s lackluster performance is often cited as a key factor in Adolf Hitler’s mistaken belief that his June 1941 invasion of the Soviet Union would be a success.
Wikipedia, for convenience, on the settlement:
Their gains exceeded their pre-war demands, and the USSR received substantial territories along Lake Ladoga and further north. Finland retained its sovereignty and enhanced its international reputation. The poor performance of the Red Army both encouraged German leader Adolf Hitler to believe that an attack on the Soviet Union would be successful and confirmed negative Western opinions of the Soviet military.
While this decidedly secondary source also says that "Most sources conclude that the Soviet Union had intended to conquer all of Finland, and use the establishment of the puppet Finnish Communist government and the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact's secret protocols as evidence of this," in 1944 when it could have done just that, it did not. Stalin won, by the declared standard of buffer zones, but at heavy cost. KF PS, The Russians HAVE air superiority, took it day 1.kairosfocus_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
01:21 PM
1
01
21
PM
PDT}

Folks, Stalin did not aim to conquer Finland. He wanted buffer space, which was unacceptable to the Finns.
The "buffer space" was called Finland. His troops were literally told not to enter Sweden, which is a long way from the territory the Soviets gained.Bob O'H_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
12:56 PM
12
12
56
PM
PDT}

JVL, Gummibear has compiled vids on the ground. That gives part of the story. The maps give a wider operational picture. We must remember from Nov 42 to May 45, the USSR paid a huge butcher's bill to advance from Volga to Berlin but advance they did. Battle of Berlin was comparable to WW1 battles. KFkairosfocus_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
12:53 PM
12
12
53
PM
PDT}

Folks, of course there is a nasty butcher's bill but the lodgements are growing and linking, thrusts are moving to the Capital and heartland etc. See the map sequence in the OP. KFkairosfocus_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
12:49 PM
12
12
49
PM
PDT}

Folks, Stalin did not aim to conquer Finland. He wanted buffer space, which was unacceptable to the Finns. When the Russians finally broke through, the Finns had to settle, and cede the buffer space Stalin wanted. Stalin won. Of course the cost was horrific and likely fed Hitler's evaluation that the Russian military were incompetent. The Finns joined in the Continuation War until they were beaten again late in '44. Of course Stalin likely concluded the game of full conquest was not worth the butcher's bill and settled for a neutral buffer state like the Swedes. KFkairosfocus_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
12:43 PM
12
12
43
PM
PDT}

Jerry: A compilation of photos and videos in Ukraine by GummiBear I'm not casting aspersions on any of the videos at the link but I do find it amusing that when I reference Wikipedia I get criticised but using 'Gummi Bear' as a source is okay.JVL_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
12:31 PM
12
12
31
PM
PDT}

A compilation of photos and videos in Ukraine by GummiBear https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497960974061654021.htmljerry_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
12:19 PM
12
12
19
PM
PDT}

When The Swiss turn against you the writing's on the wall.Seversky_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
09:44 AM
9
09
44
AM
PDT}

Bob O'H: I can think of one very Western country that was attacked in the 80s. There's a lot more than one since the Korean War if you count all the terrorist attacks. And not all of those were perpetrated by Islamic fanatics, i.e. Oklahoma City and Northern Ireland for a couple of examples.JVL_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
09:16 AM
9
09
16
AM
PDT}

He still may prevail through sheer numbers but certainly not as easily as he thought. Armored convoys need gasoline and would be easy targets for air (drone or plane) and certain types of road side attacks.
I agree, so I suspect the Russians will revert to being a bit more cautious: achieve air superiority and improve their supply chains. It looks like taking Kyiv will be a long and bloody process, so Russia will prevail if it wants to incur the cost. But the effects of sanctions could wreck the economy.
This is the first attack on a western type country since Korea. Resources for defense are very different.
I can think of one very Western country that was attacked in the 80s.Bob O'H_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
08:49 AM
8
08
49
AM
PDT}

kf @ 90 - how do you figure that out? Yes, the USSR gained territory in Karelia, but they didn't get anywhere near to conquering Finland. And they lost a lot of military capacity.Bob O'H_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
08:41 AM
8
08
41
AM
PDT}

Kairosfocus: We forget, Stalin WON his winter war with Finland in 1939/40. Did he? In the long run?
The Winter War, also known as First Soviet-Finnish War, was a war between the Soviet Union (USSR) and Finland. It began with a Soviet invasion of Finland on 30 November 1939, three months after the outbreak of World War II; the war ended three and a half months later with the Moscow Peace Treaty on 13 March 1940. Despite superior military strength, especially in tanks and aircraft, the Soviet Union suffered severe losses and initially made little headway. The League of Nations deemed the attack illegal and expelled the Soviet Union from the organisation. The Soviets made several demands, including that Finland cede substantial border territories in exchange for land elsewhere, claiming security reasons—primarily the protection of Leningrad, 32 km (20 mi) from the Finnish border. When Finland refused, the USSR invaded. Most sources conclude that the Soviet Union had intended to conquer all of Finland, and use the establishment of the puppet Finnish Communist government and the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact's secret protocols as evidence of this, while other sources argue against the idea of the full Soviet conquest. Finland repelled Soviet attacks for more than two months and inflicted substantial losses on the invaders while temperatures ranged as low as ?43 °C (?45 °F). The battles focused mainly on Taipale in Karelian Isthmus, on Kollaa in Ladoga Karelia and on the Raate Road in Kainuu, but there were also battles in Salla and Petsamo in Lapland. After the Soviet military reorganized and adopted different tactics, they renewed their offensive in February and overcame Finnish defences. Hostilities ceased in March 1940 with the signing of the Moscow Peace Treaty, in which Finland ceded nine percent of its territory to the Soviet Union. Soviet losses were heavy, and the country's international reputation suffered. Their gains exceeded their pre-war demands, and the USSR received substantial territories along Lake Ladoga and further north. Finland retained its sovereignty and enhanced its international reputation. The poor performance of the Red Army both encouraged German leader Adolf Hitler to believe that an attack on the Soviet Union would be successful and confirmed negative Western opinions of the Soviet military. After 15 months of Interim Peace, in June 1941, Nazi Germany commenced Operation Barbarossa, and the Continuation War between Finland and the USSR began.
So, let's get this straight: The Soviet Union has gotten a bloody nose in Finland, Hungary and Afghanistan (much smaller countries) in the last 80 years or so? And they were eating horses and rats while being sieged by the Germans during the Second World War. Are they actually that good at fighting? I've heard that many Russian troops are surrendering (or leaving the battlefield) in Ukraine because a) they don't understand what they are doing there and b) many of them have friends or family in Ukraine. Perhaps expecting soldiers to just do what they're told without good reason doesn't really work? Like I said before, win or lose the war Putin and Russia have already lost the long game. If the invasion is 'successful' the sanctions and bad reputation will affect their economics for years and years plus they'll have to deal with gorilla warfare as they did (and eventually walked away from) in Afghanistan. If the invasion is unsuccessful then Putin looks foolish and weak AND lots of Russian lives (and money) will have been lost for nothing AND they'll still have sanctions and a big hit on their reputation. All those Russian oligarchs spent years and years building up reputations and business connections in the west and it's all dissolving around them. How long do you think they'll take to figure out taking out Putin and acting more pleasant will be a lot better for business? Maybe they're just waiting for him to prove himself to be so hideous that they can just eliminate him and hope that the rest of us will look on them like peace-makers? Riddles within enigmas. Now there's this: Vladimir Putin put Russia's nuclear forces on high alert after comments by UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and others, the Kremlin has said. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60558048 By the way, the UK Defense Secretary has stated that Putin cannot himself press the nuclear button; if those in the Russian military thinks doing so is stupid it won't happen. Putin may be a madman but I'm not convinced the Russian military leaders want to go down with his ship.JVL_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
08:20 AM
8
08
20
AM
PDT}

From a Catholic perspective:
When it comes to abortion, President Putin and President Zelensky oversee countries very open to legalized abortion. Russia has the world’s highest per-capita abortion rate, while President Zelensky wishes to make abortion more accessible in Ukraine. President Zelensky also wants prostitution and other immoral practices legalized. While prostitution is also illegal in Russia, it is only punishable by a minimal fine. Thus, prostitution is very popular and even lauded by President Putin himself. Russia and Ukraine, while both Christian on some issues, are pretty much like any other nation when it comes to their laws—cafeteria Christian and non-Christian on the preeminent issues. https://www.crisismagazine.com/2022/the-myth-of-the-crusader-putin?mc_cid=b16fff95ec&mc_eid=411c0fcba5
Silver Asiatic_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
06:29 AM
6
06
29
AM
PDT}

Bob O'H/88
Sev @ 5 – What concerns me is that Putin has calculated correctly on weak and ineffectual leadership in the West. That aged well
This is one case in which I would be more than happy to be proved wrong.Seversky_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
05:58 AM
5
05
58
AM
PDT}

William J Murray/75
KF, You do realize that it is under Putin that Russians can once again own firearms, including handguns? That’s not your typical lawless oligarch or tyrannical despot behavior.
You can get a license after you have taken a firearms safety course, passed a test and passed a background check by the FSB. In other words, the Federal Russian authorities have absolute control over who is allowed to own a gun and know everyone who has been granted a license. If they don't think you should have a gun, you won't get a license. Not exactly the equivalent of a Second Amendment right.Seversky_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
05:55 AM
5
05
55
AM
PDT}

William J Murray/63
Here’s an entirely different perspective on Putin than the one the mainstream media has been giving people: https://pravoslavie.ru/88285.html
Do you buy that portrayal of Putin?Seversky_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
05:50 AM
5
05
50
AM
PDT}

Jerry, I put up the Wiki Map for Feb 28, showing significant progress esp coming out of Crimea and on the East bank and West of Kiev. They are taking away the Eastern part, they are pushing up from Crimea to take back water, they are slowly enveloping the capital. Of course they dominate the air, and Belarus is saying its troops are coming in too. KFkairosfocus_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
05:17 AM
5
05
17
AM
PDT}

Let's see another point of view: https://twitter.com/ByRakeshSimha/status/1498257365480898561Lieutenant Commander Data_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
04:56 AM
4
04
56
AM
PDT}

We forget, Stalin WON his winter war with Finland in 1939/40.kairosfocus_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
04:53 AM
4
04
53
AM
PDT}

What concerns me is that Putin has calculated correctly on weak and ineffectual leadership in the West. That aged well
I actually think that was correct but maybe WWII war tactics are deficient. He still may prevail through sheer numbers but certainly not as easily as he thought. Armored convoys need gasoline and would be easy targets for air (drone or plane) and certain types of road side attacks. I’m sure the war colleges are studying carefully and may have to throw out libraries full of tactics. This is the first attack on a western type country since Korea. Resources for defense are very different.jerry_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
04:49 AM
4
04
49
AM
PDT}

Sev @ 5 -
What concerns me is that Putin has calculated correctly on weak and ineffectual leadership in the West.
That aged well.Bob O'H_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
04:39 AM
4
04
39
AM
PDT}

U/D Putin moves forces to nuke alert as he agrees to talks. New vid in OP.kairosfocus_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
04:08 AM
4
04
08
AM
PDT}

Jerry, sadly, it's a both and, with others also. KFkairosfocus_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
03:51 AM
3
03
51
AM
PDT}

Is Russia one of the greatest debacles in the last 150 years and that’s saying a lot? Two articles by Peter Hitchens explaining the incompetence of our leaders.
Why I blame the arrogant, foolish West: Our response to this crisis in Ukraine has been to react with mistrust and abuse, and with blatant attempts to worsen the situation
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10540829/PETER-HITCHENS-blame-arrogant-foolish-West-Ukraine-crisis.html
The West acts tough with Russia because we’re just too feeble to stand up to our real enemy… China
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10555573/PETER-HITCHENS-West-acts-tough-Russia-just-feeble-stand-China.htmljerry_{February 28, 2022
February
02
Feb
28
28
2022
03:46 AM
3
03
46
AM
PDT}

It seems there is a buzz about negotiations.kairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
February
02
Feb
27
27
2022
06:49 PM
6
06
49
PM
PDT}

Has anyone paused to watch and ponder the vid diagnosing the Russian geostrategic perspective added earlier today? KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
February
02
Feb
27
27
2022
06:37 PM
6
06
37
PM
PDT}

Vivid [& attn Sc], kindly see my comment at 41 in the protest thread. I am citing Col Bay. KFkairosfocus_{February 27, 2022
February
02
Feb
27
27
2022
04:04 PM
4
04
04
PM
PDT}

Prev 1 … 4 5 6 7 8 9 Next

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Leave a Reply