There are numerous article out there right now indicating that the fatality ratio of this corona virus looks to be in the same range as that of a seasonal flu. Dr. Fauci keeps saying that he thinks this virus will be a seasonal flu. But, of course. Now, there’s a study by an Israeli scientist who tells us that this virus has its own pattern and that this patterns works itself out over a set period of time, lockdown or no. He marvels at the fear factor at work. It’s like a seasonal flu. He asks: was this exponential growth? His answer: no. (Was I not mocked for not understanding that we were dealing with exponential growth——–while I was looking Read More ›

Survivors speak: Voices count . . . and, pardon the interviwer. END

From this article: It’s important to note that HCQ, zinc, and azithromycin are very well understood drugs with clear safety profiles; they are widely available, generic, inexpensive, and can be scaled rapidly, including to the developing world… Our primary strategic objective must be to prevent ICU overwhelm, which on our current course is imminent in most states. It is an axiom of infectious diseases that treatment in earlier stages is more effective than treating advanced stages. Early COVID-19 treatment is more likely to prevent disease progression to critical status, radically lowering hospitalizations and CFR than inaction. Current clinical drug trials are mostly focused on treating late stages of disease, when immunologic damage is a dominant threat. We believe that trials Read More ›

Prof Raoult’s web site hosts an interesting map, under the title, “Pays où l’hydroxychloroquine est recommandée”: India, of course, has the further approval for prophylaxis. That’s significant, as talk on vaccines tends to point to 12 – 18 months and double-blind, placebo controlled tests in progress or about to start in the US look likely to take more than a year. Meanwhile, OWID tracks how time to double to current number of deaths — probably the best statistic — is continuing to stretch out: (Notice, the S-curves and driving impulses.) Likewise, we can see the daily cases clearly peaking (for THIS wave . . . notice, Wave 2 for China and even an uptick to a Wave 3): This is Read More ›

Yesterday a United States District Court entered an order barring the enforcement of a mayor’s order banning a “drive in” church service. Here are the first four paragraphs of the court’s opinion: On Holy Thursday, an American mayor criminalized the communal celebration of Easter. That sentence is one that this Court never expected to see outside the pages of a dystopian novel, or perhaps the pages of The Onion. But two days ago, citing the need for social distancing during the current pandemic, Louisville’s Mayor Greg Fischer ordered Christians not to attend Sunday services, even if they remained in their cars to worship – and even though it’s Easter. The Mayor’s decision is stunning. And it is, “beyond all reason,” Read More ›

HT, BA77, here is a plot of CFR vs median age, with size of bubble keyed to number of fatalities: In this context, Prof Didier Raoult’s 1061 case study’s low fatality rate for elderly persons, 0.5% as reported, seems quite significant. Related, here is the Chinese CDC report on CFR by age: Then, we may note Raoult’s observed pattern for treatment: I trust these will be helpful. END

Embedded below is a nice new video “When Scientists Ignore Science: The Second Law of Thermodynamics” produced by Mark Champneys.