Buzz: North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un is reportedly in “grave danger” following surgery, CNN reported on Monday evening, citing an anonymous U.S. official with direct knowledge of the situation. There have been rumors of the dictator’s declining health in recent days, after he reportedly missed the country’s most important political holiday last week — the birthday celebration of Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-un’s grandfather and founder of the communist tyranny. NBC’s Kathy Tur sparked further speculation after deleting a tweet citing two U.S. officials who purportedly claimed that the authoritarian is “brain dead.” “North Korean leader Kim ing Un is brain dead, according to two US officials. He recently had cardiac surgery and slipped into a coma, according to one US Read More ›

We are entering unprecedented and perilous economic times.  Today for the first time in history the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil went negative, with the May delivery plunging to -$36.73 per barrel.  Our fiscal policy makers are in panic mode as they try to stave off a deflationary spiral that could plunge the country into a deep depression. In this article I will discuss the government’s response to the current crisis, whether the law of unintended consequences will result in the destruction of the dollar, and possible replacements for the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The Government’s Plan Even before the crash of the oil market, Fed policy makers knew deflationary pressures caused by the COVID-19 crisis Read More ›

As my personal blog tracker reports: Let me add, a 1-year look: This of course reflects the impact of economic slowdown due to lockdown, but it also implies room for considerable stimulus. END PS: A look at going into depression: A strongly shocked economy can tumble well within the PPF, sticking there for years, as in the 1930’s. A long enough pandemic lockdown could send it there. However, I doubt it, though a recession is likely.

Yesterday in response to one of my more outrageous “dad jokes,” my son said that I was “cra-cra” (pronounced Cray Cray).  I hastened to the internet to look the term up.  It means “Crazy.” The term put me in mind of a recent exchange I had with frequent commenter MatSpirit.  We were discussing President Trump’s reaction to New York Governor Cuomo’s call for more ventilators.  For those who did not follow the story, on March 27 Cuomo said New York needed 40,000 ventilators.  The state had 12,000 already, so Cuomo was calling for an additional 28,000.  On that same day Trump said that he believed the request was inflated, that New York did not need that many ventilators. Fast forward Read More ›

I have never been an advocate of conspiracy theories, because they violate the rule of parsimony known as Occam’s Razor — loosely, “the simplest explanation that accounts for all of the data should be preferred.” Too often conspiracy mavens advance “enormously complex coordinated malfeasance” as an explanation for that which is far more easily explained by simple stupidity. Take the 2008 fiscal crisis as an example. There is no need to invoke a vast government conspiracy to explain it. The crisis had its roots in the cratering of the subprime mortgage industry, which in turn was caused by the government dictating lending policies to achieve goals the government deemed more important than sound lending practices. Stupid? Of course. Nefarious? Probably Read More ›

It is clear that we need to re-think how we go about doing science to warrant approaches to the pandemic. So, allow me to headline a comment from the double-blind thread: KF, 16: >> I am also thinking back to the old “Scientific Method” summary we were taught in schools and its roots in Newton’s Opticks, Query 31: As in Mathematicks, so in Natural Philosophy, the Investigation of difficult Things by the Method of Analysis, ought ever to precede the Method of Composition. This Analysis consists in making Experiments and Observations, and in drawing general Conclusions from them by Induction, and admitting of no Objections against the Conclusions, but such as are taken from Experiments, or other certain Truths. For Read More ›