One of the key steps in dismissing evidence of efficacy of hydroxychloroquine-based cocktails in treating early stageCovid-19 for patients in vulnerable groups on an outpatient basis is the use of the premise that such evidence is of low quality as it does not match the “gold standard” of placebo-controlled, randomised tests (often. RCT’s). However, observations are observations, natural regularities are often observable from the first few trials, evidence is evidence, ethical and practical considerations are real, and valid scientific methods do not reduce to applied statistics. It is in that context that we should attend carefully to remarks by Dr Thomas Frieden, writing in NEJM 3 1/2 years ago, in terms that uncannily anticipate our current woes: Despite their strengths, Read More ›

It’s worth headlining from the CV19 thread: Jerry, 579: >>Dr. Risch strikes back. https://washex.am/2DFxdij Hydroxychloroquine works in high-risk patients, and saying otherwise is dangerous As of Wednesday, some 165,000 people in the United States have died from COVID-19. I have made the case in the American Journal of Epidemiology and in Newsweek that people who have a medical need to be treated can be treated early and successfully with hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and antibiotics such as azithromycin or doxycycline. I have also argued that these drugs are safe and have made that case privately to the Food and Drug Administration. The pushback has been furious. Dr. Anthony Fauci has implied that I am incompetent, notwithstanding my hundreds of highly regarded, methodologically Read More ›

… and it appears that they are, what is the role of the brain in mediating intelligence? Spiders have rather different brains from vertebrates; much simpler, for one thing: Ronald R. Hoy, Cornell University professor of neurobiology and behavior, considers the spider “one of the smartest of all invertebrates.” But while its behavior is comparable to that of many vertebrates, its anatomy is not: “Dr. Hoy and his colleagues wanted to study jumping spiders because they are very different from most of their kind. They do not wait in a sticky web for lunch to fall into a trap. They search out prey, stalk it and pounce. “They’ve essentially become cats,” Dr. Hoy said. And they do all this with Read More ›

I note, from OWID, today August 13. First, case fatality rate vs population’s median age, though this is oldish data now . . . however exceptionally poor management by the US — an obvious implied thesis — should have been obvious even then: Next, case fatality rate overall — a metric dependent on degree of testing, how deaths are attributed and tracked: In both of these, the USA — subject of an in thread debate — is unexceptional. In particular, it sits spot on for median age of population. END PS: Let me add from Worldometers for the USA, noting that deaths also show much the same pattern: Here, as we went into April, there was a fundamental shift in Read More ›

Fisher’s Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection has done a lot to convince many professional academics of the truth of Darwinian evolution. The theorem states that the rate of increase in fitness of any organism at any time is equal to its variance in fitness at that time. In other words, fitness must go up! Because it is a mathematical equation, many are convinced that selection must be effective. However, it turns out that Fisher’s theorem actually says very little about fitness, or even biology. While this has been pointed out before, a recent paper shows (a) the limitations of the theorem to tell us anything helpful about selection, (b) the limitations of the theorem to tell us anything about evolution, Read More ›