kairosfocus

Prof Raoult’s web site hosts an interesting map, under the title, “Pays où l’hydroxychloroquine est recommandée”: India, of course, has the further approval for prophylaxis. That’s significant, as talk on vaccines tends to point to 12 – 18 months and double-blind, placebo controlled tests in progress or about to start in the US look likely to take more than a year. Meanwhile, OWID tracks how time to double to current number of deaths — probably the best statistic — is continuing to stretch out: (Notice, the S-curves and driving impulses.) Likewise, we can see the daily cases clearly peaking (for THIS wave . . . notice, Wave 2 for China and even an uptick to a Wave 3): This is Read More ›

HT, BA77, here is a plot of CFR vs median age, with size of bubble keyed to number of fatalities: In this context, Prof Didier Raoult’s 1061 case study’s low fatality rate for elderly persons, 0.5% as reported, seems quite significant. Related, here is the Chinese CDC report on CFR by age: Then, we may note Raoult’s observed pattern for treatment: I trust these will be helpful. END

Recently, we here at UD saw that global trend lines are curving over from exponential growth in new Covid-19 cases. Likewise, health authorities have been talking of the US and the UK peaking in perhaps ten days. Where I am, we are still growing: one, two, five, nine total. (And no, Black the Ripper is not credibly a Covid-19 case.) Here’s a graphic that gives pause, with labelled phases — recall, the crest of new infections is the inflexion point on the growing arm of the S-curve of cumulative cases: But, the further consideration is, onward waves triggered by fresh outbreaks or new strains once lock-downs . . . which cannot be long sustained . . . are relaxed: These Read More ›

. . . and, they expect a secondary wave. Sermo is a global Doctors’ forum site, which allows building of a global consensus of Physicians. As a part of its efforts, it has had a “statistically significant” survey of over 6,000 doctors, regarding Covid-19. Excerpting the just linked report: Largest Statistically Significant Study by 6,200 Multi-Country Physicians on COVID-19 Uncovers Treatment Patterns and Puts Pandemic in Context April 2, 2020 Sermo Reports on Hydroxychloroquine Efficacy, Rise in Prophylaxis Use; Over 80% Expect 2nd Outbreak New York, New York – April 2, 2020 – Widespread confusion, conflicting reports, inconsistent testing, and off-indication use of existing and experimental drugs has resulted in no single source of information from the frontlines. To create a Read More ›

Here is a panel discussion for a rapidly organised conference: We need to hear this, where 44 million donated tablets are already in hand. END

As we continue to track, let some graphs tell a story, first up is Euro-CDC: That looks like a peaking, certainly it is not exponential surging in new cases. World in Data, on a 3-day, rolling avg will smoothen, highlighting key countries (including the USA): That looks like a flattening, trending to turning over on the driving impulse. Let’s see doubling times, which will track comparable exponential growth: Those were in the 2 – 3 day band previously. Now, the by country log-lin deaths, with the same 2,3,5 day doubling time rays since five cases as previous: Likewise, per country log-lin cumulative cases, with the same usual 2,3, 5 and 10 day doubling time from 100 cases rays: We see Read More ›

Yes, it is gross but necessary. Sorry in advance. The question of social distance is back on the table, at least according to the UK’s Daily Mail (reporting today on Dr Fauci’s nuanced answer to a question . . . and no, this isn’t Babylon Bee spoofing on April Fool’s Day): Illustrating, i/l/o a 2014 study — early progress of a super-sneeze or cough: Notice, the drifting cloud? Here’s MIT, in 2014: The next time you feel a sneeze coming on, raise your elbow to cover up that multiphase turbulent buoyant cloud you’re about to expel. That’s right: A novel study by MIT researchers shows that coughs and sneezes have associated gas clouds that keep their potentially infectious droplets aloft Read More ›

As MIT suggests, Almost every bed in a hospital has a manual resuscitator (Ambu-Bag) nearby, available in the event of a rapid response or code where healthcare workers maintain oxygenation by squeezing the bag. Automating this appears to be the simplest strategy that satisfies the need for low-cost mechanical ventilation, with the ability to be rapidly manufactured in large quantities. However, doing this safely is not trivial. Use of a bag-valve mask (BVM) in emergency situations is not a new concept. A portable ventilator utilizing an ambu-bag was introduced in 2010 by a student team in the MIT class 2.75 Medical Device Design (original paper here and news story here), but did not move past the prototype stage. Around the Read More ›

Here: Let us listen. END

Now that France has approved Hydroxychloroquine after Prof Raoult’s second test, it is helpful to go back and roll the tape. We need to understand why we are where we are now, over a month after China — which, unsurprisingly, did a lot of the early work on Covid-19 that we are all relying on now — published information on promising drugs. Here is Clinical Trials Arena, February 18th: 18 February 2020 News Coronavirus: Chloroquine yields positive data in Covid-19 trial Early data from clinical trials being performed in China has revealed that chloroquine phosphate could help treat the new coronavirus disease, Covid-19. China National Center for Biotechnology Development deputy head Sun Yanrong said that chloroquine, an anti-malarial medication, was Read More ›

France 24, English has the vid: This is a breakthrough of hope for those who may fall victim to the disease. HT, Vivid. I link the Daily Wire report Vivid links, given the onward confirmation: France Officially Sanctions Drug After 78 Of 80 Patients Recover From COVID-19 Within Five Days By  Amanda PrestigiacomoDailyWire.com The French government has officially sanctioned chloroquine, a drug often used to fight malaria, for certain patients infected with the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19. “The French government has officially sanctioned prescriptions of chloroquine to treat certain coronavirus patients,” France 24 English reported Saturday. “This ensures continued treatment of patients who have been treated for several years for a chronic condition with this drug, but also allows a Read More ›

Here is a log-lin on cases, relative to 100 as marking breakout: Likewise, for deaths, starting at the fifth: Here, we see onward unfolding of the pandemic. The 2 – 3 day doubling band is still there [and the USA is growing fastest now], but now we see where the plague is beginning to slow in a range of countries. Slow, not stop. We have a long, painful way to go. END PS: 24 Hour curfew is beginning to “take.”

BREAKING: Professor Raoult has released a further result. Using Google Translate on two tweets: Our two articles published this evening help to demonstrate:      1. The effectiveness of our protocol, on 80 patients.      2. The relevance of the association of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, thanks to research carried out in our P3 containment laboratory. https://t.co/Y91bsFOgB2      – Didier Raoult (@raoult_didier) March 27, 2020 and: New article published online by my teams: in vitro demonstration of the hydroxychloroquine / azithromycin synergy to counter the replication of SARS-COV2      In vitro testing of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin on SARS-CoV-2 shows synergistic effecthttps: //t.co/KUaag6N5FF      – Didier Raoult (@raoult_didier) March 27, 2020 Here is a chart in one of the Twitter threads, which seems Read More ›

Here we go: I am an ER MD in New Orleans. Class of 98. Every one of my colleagues have now seen several hundred Covid 19 patients and this is what I think I know. Clinical course is predictable. 2-11 days after exposure (day 5 on average) flu like symptoms start. Common are fever, headache, dry cough, myalgias(back pain), nausea without vomiting, abdominal discomfort with some diarrhea, loss of smell, anorexia, fatigue. Day 5 of symptoms- increased SOB, and bilateral viral pneumonia from direct viral damage to lung parenchyma. Day 10- Cytokine storm leading to acute ARDS and multiorgan failure. You can literally watch it happen in a matter of hours. 81% mild symptoms, 14% severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, 5% Read More ›

Fresh developments, even as in a now all too familiar development, a politically incorrect video vanishes from YouTube. The Boris Johnson case shows just how contagious this virus is, as he joins a list of leading politicians and members of their families. We definitely need a good treatment and we need it fast. In that light, let us see what is being picked up from Belgium: Belgium’s Federal Agency for Medicines and Health Products (FAMHP) is reserving hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug, for patients who really need it in light of the new coronavirus (Covid-19). The drug, marketed under the name Plaquenil, has entered clinical trials in France and the United States, and its results against Covid-19 are promising, according to Read More ›