Intelligent Design

As we have discussed in these pages, the CFR (case fatality rate) for COVID-19 is extremely difficult to calculate. We have a rough estimate of the numerator (deaths). But even that may be off, because of the difference between dying “with” COVID-19 and dying “of” COVID-19. In other words, if a person who was going to die of cancer today anyway gets COVID-19 an hour before he dies, is it correct to say he died of the virus just because he had it when he died. This is not theoretical. The Health Minister of Italy said the virus fatality number in his country is certainly overstated for this reason. For all the problems the numerator has, they pale in comparison Read More ›

Trump’s plan calls for protecting vulnerable age cohorts while letting the less vulnerable get back to work. The two charts below demonstrate why opposition to this proposal borders on the insane. The first chart is from CDC’s website showing COVID-19 deaths by age cohort as of April 17. The total is only 13,130, because CDC is behind in sorting this data. According to Worldmeter, total US deaths as of April 17 are 37,230. The second chart assumes the rates stay the same as the data is compiled (and I see no reason we should not assume that). Then I calculate total deaths as of today by age cohort. One number should jump out at you. 3,315. That is the total number Read More ›

The Turing test has had a free ride in science media for far too long, says an AI expert: In the view of Rensselaer philosopher and computer scientist Selmer Bringsjord, the iconic Turing test for human-like intelligence in computers is inadequate and easily gamed. Merely sounding enough like a human to fool people does not establish human-like intelligence. He proposes the much more challenging Lovelace test, based on an observation from computer pioneer Ada Lovelace (1815–1852) that true creativity is what distinguishes humans from machines. – Mind Matters News Further reading: No materialist theory of consciousness is plausible. All such theories either deny the very thing they are trying to explain, result in absurd scenarios, or end up requiring an Read More ›

There are numerous article out there right now indicating that the fatality ratio of this corona virus looks to be in the same range as that of a seasonal flu. Dr. Fauci keeps saying that he thinks this virus will be a seasonal flu. But, of course. Now, there’s a study by an Israeli scientist who tells us that this virus has its own pattern and that this patterns works itself out over a set period of time, lockdown or no. He marvels at the fear factor at work. It’s like a seasonal flu. He asks: was this exponential growth? His answer: no. (Was I not mocked for not understanding that we were dealing with exponential growth——–while I was looking Read More ›