Geography Matters

_{Barry Arrington

April 27, 2020

Intelligent Design}

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In response to my last post (The Data Are in: A Nationwide Lockdown Was Never Necessary) Bob O’H got red in the face, stamped his feet, and apparently insisted that a nationwide lockdown was necessary. Was it? Here is an analysis performed by a friend:

To put US COVID19 cases into perspective, it helps to separate the terrible outbreak in the five-state region of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts from the other 45 states. (Stats as of April 25.)

Total Population
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 39.8 million
Rest of US – 288 million

COVID Cases – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 490,675 (12,312)
Rest of US – 496,657 (1,722)

COVID Deaths – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 33,262 (835)
Rest of US – 22,153 (77)

HT: Mark Hillman

Those who insist that regional differences make no difference are now in the “willfully obtuse” category.

Comments

Jerry, + and - beats vitreous and resineous. KFkairosfocus_{May 1, 2020
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EG, you prefer the sources of the other falsified conspiracies? The problem here is that there are now no gold standard sources, even among the former top media houses. We just have to test for ourselves. KFkairosfocus_{May 1, 2020
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KF@137, if I was going to press a point I wouldn’t reference a source (PJ media) that has a long history of pushing falsified conspiracy theories.Ed George_{May 1, 2020
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Jerry, thanks for the tip.Barry Arrington_{May 1, 2020
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F/N: Issues on statistical inflation: https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2020/04/30/nyc-funeral-directors-reveal-shocking-inflation-of-covid-19-deaths-n387013 KFkairosfocus_{May 1, 2020
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Barry If you want an enjoyable listen. get the course on Franklin’s life mentioned. You can get the whole thing as an audible book for a lot less. I would recommend listening in the car but that is very limited these days. Did you know Franklin is in the swimming hall of fame and the chess hall of fame. Among a ton of other things. Franklin was renowned in Europe because of his science accomplishments and considered by Europeans as one world’s top scientists. He is the responsible for the electron being negative. It was arbitrary but he called its attraction negative. Puts a whole different spin on the attraction of things.jerry_{May 1, 2020
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Jerry, I speculated that Ben and William might have been at the coronation of George III, and it appears that is the case. But see your comment from above:
Our first civil war is now called the Revolutionary War. Most who disagreed with the break from England migrated out of the colonies. And it was father against son back then as Ben Franklin’s son left because he sided with the English. By the way Franklin was in London as he watched his son march in the procession inaugurating the newest King George.
You seemed to be connecting the father against son aspect of the war to the inauguration of George III, which did not make sense given that that event occurred 15 years before the war began.Barry Arrington_{May 1, 2020
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In Canada the Liberals are red and the Conservatives are blue.Ed George_{May 1, 2020
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But this detail about the inauguration is not accurate.
It was in a history of Franklin in a course by The Great Courses. https://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/the-age-of-benjamin-franklin.html
William helped his father with a kite experiment in the early 1750s. He also accompanied him on his diplomatic missions. William did very well. Much more sociable than his father, William thrived in London society. In fact, at the coronation of King George III, William was part of the royal procession. His father had a seat up in the balcony.
I maintain that Franklin was one of the two or three most interesting people in history. Do you know he was with Voltaire at his death when Voltaire invoked God as the salvation of mankind.
And Voltaire does place his hands on Temple Franklin’s head, and he says, “God and liberty.”
jerry_{May 1, 2020
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Jerry
By the way Franklin was in London as he watched his son march in the procession inaugurating the newest King George.
George III was inaugurated in 1760. George IV was inaugurated in 1820. Ben Franklin died in 1790, after the revolution but before the inauguration of George IV. It is true that Ben's son William was a loyalist who moved to England after the war. But this detail about the inauguration is not accurate. Franklin was in England in 1760 (and perhaps so was William). So it is possible they could have both attended the inauguration of George III. But that was 16 years before the war.Barry Arrington_{May 1, 2020
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MatSpritit:
You are all IDiots.
KF:
MS, the big contrast is on density of people-people interactions, eg NY and its subways which were just closed for a cleaning. Geography is much more than mere location.
It is amusing (and kind of tragic too) that MatSpirit fails to grasp the glaringly obvious point KF makes while calling everyone who disagrees with him idiots. I was tempted to ban MS after that rudeness. But I thought better of it. By all means MS, post away. Toss more softballs for KF to knock out of the park. But if you keep calling people idiots, don't be surprised if my patience runs out and you are shown the exit. Last warning. Barry Arrington_{May 1, 2020
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Bob O'H, I am amused that the animal picked to portray the Democrats is an ass. :razz:ET_{May 1, 2020
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Jerry, I'm more optimistic about our future, I guess. I do think we need some sort of mission that will bring us together, such as space exploration. Astronauts often talk about how seeing the Earth from orbit is a life-changing experience; perhaps if we see humans on the Moon again, or even on Mars, that will help bring about a much-needed change in perspective.daveS_{May 1, 2020
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We now tend to see each other in binary terms, rather than as people with complex interests and values who actually can work together to solve problems.
One historian expressed what we are seeing possibly as the origins of a new civil war. He said that during the civil war of the 1860's (wasn't called a civil war till 20th century - War Between the States or War of Northern Aggression depending on location) a young man from the hills of Tennessee differed from the young man from the hills of Pennsylvania in one thing and that was slavery. So after slavery was eliminated it meant they had almost identical visions and goals. Now we have people living next door to each other with vastly different visions and goals. And sometimes in the same household. It cannot end well. Our first civil war is now called the Revolutionary War. Most who disagreed with the break from England migrated out of the colonies. And it was father against son back then as Ben Franklin's son left because he sided with the English. By the way Franklin was in London as he watched his son march in the procession inaugurating the newest King George. Replacing Trump will not eliminate this phenomenon as this division was here long before people thought of Trump as nothing but an obnoxious New York billionaire on a TV show. The divide and acrimony on this site has gone back to when it first started in 2005-2006. If you scratched the politics of both sides, then you would have found the same differences as today. The interesting question is what are the underlying attitudes that lead to an affinity of opinions on such a wide range of subjects. For many in our world outside of a blog like this it is just ignorance and an unwillingness to make any waves with the current conventional wisdom. As the religious representative who said I was a victim of a misinformation program and gave me a link to the CDC when I suggested there was an inexpensive cure for the virus. So there was no need to worry about lost of health care and starvation for the poor if this was recognized. He and some of our commenters here are fellow bedfellows.jerry_{May 1, 2020
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Part of a blue state wants to open up. One of the largest hospitals systems in US proposed going back to normal.
UPMC doctor argues COVID-19 not as deadly as feared, says its hospitals will shift back to normal
jerry_{May 1, 2020
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I think the separation of states, counties, and about everything else you can think of into "red" and "blue" has been quite harmful to the US. We now tend to see each other in binary terms, rather than as people with complex interests and values who actually can work together to solve problems. At the very least we should view the statistics in terms of a red-purple-blue spectrum. Furthermore, some of the reddest counties on that map are something like 70% Republican/30% Democrat. There are sizeable numbers of people on the left and right everywhere.daveS_{May 1, 2020
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Geography is much more than mere location
It is mainly about urban density which reflects economic opportunity which often originally reflects geography such as ports or transportation hubs or trading centers. People with less economic wherewithal will flock there. Hence the expression "Follow the Money" explains most differences. This might mean that areas such as New York City will come out of the virus quicker as herd immunity will spread quicker there. But based on my previous comment we are now at a point where the herd immunity goal can be managed for everyone. But politics is getting in the way.
Is anyone else amused that the colour used to represent the Republican party is also the color associated with socialism?
This apparently was a happenstance as the TV networks reporting state patterns would switch colors from one election to the other and just happened to be using red for Republicans the year the expression took hold. Another version is that red and blue were traditionally used to distinguish the parties on maps but in 2000 one graphic consultant started using red for Republicans because both begin with "r." It stuck. But I am glad that someone recognizes that Republicans are the antithesis of socialism since their primary intellectual underpinning is individual liberty or freedom.jerry_{May 1, 2020
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The lockdown does not prevent the spread of the disease. It just extends the inevitable while causing massive secondary harm in other areas. Someone quoted a potential virus victim as saying he rather take his chances with the virus than starve to death. What is needed is a way to quickly manage the return to normal life with minimal disruption. There is such a plan and what’s preventing its implementation or even consideration is politics. https://bit.ly/3554Tik
New antibody tests for SARS-CoV-2 are providing better estimates of the mortality rate of COVID-19. Prior to serology testing, the prevalence of novel-coronavirus infection was calculated to be only 0.26% in the US with a mortality rate of 5.60%. Serology tests, however, now show the infection prevalence to be far higher with a calculated mortality rate of about 0.18%. With age-selective quarantining in combination with widespread testing, telemedicine consultations and early treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc, the mortality rate could be reduced to 0.03%. By instituting these measures, the projected number of deaths moving forward could be fewer than the number of deaths in the flu season of 2017-2018.
We see that here in miniature as comments seem to reflect underlying attitudes that reflect political leanings as well as for non-political areas. One of the more sensible approaches I have seen is Turkey which allows normal commerce for 5 days of the week for those aged 20-65 and social isolation for others. So most of the economy proceeds while testing and. treating take place for everyone. Eventually this will have to end but the intent is as little disruption as possible till herd immunity or a vaccine is available.jerry_{May 1, 2020
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MS, the big contrast is on density of people-people interactions, eg NY and its subways which were just closed for a cleaning. Geography is much more than mere location. KFkairosfocus_{May 1, 2020
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BO'H there was a deliberate reversal of the usual colours. That is contrasted with the UK. KFkairosfocus_{May 1, 2020
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Except the pandemic will be concentrated in Red states.
Is anyone else amused that the colour used to represent the Republican party is also the colour associated with socialism?Bob O'H_{May 1, 2020
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Barry: 60% of deaths come from just 5 states. MatSpirit: Whoever says geography matters is an idiot. 60 % of the deaths come from 5 urban states with busy airports for bringing the virus in and getting it going. California is an even bigger state with huge international airports and they started serious, government mandated social distancing and shelter in place measures months before the East Coast, back when Trump was telling us all that Covid was nothing, that we were going to wake up soon and discover it had disappeared with the changing seasons. Today we can look at the deaths and especially deaths per capita and no amount of geographical BSing is going change them. Social isolation is responsible for that vast difference in human deaths, not their geographical location. And now, of course, the Stable Genius, the Republican Party and all the Trumpeters are trying their level best to end the lockdown while the virus is still within our society. The only "good" thing about all this is that given normal delays in implementation, we should be back where we were a couple of months ago all over the country just in time for the elections. Except the pandemic will be concentrated in Red states. You are all IDiots.MatSpirit_{April 30, 2020
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More https://aapsonline.org/aaps-letter-asking-gov-ducey-to-rescind-executive-order-concerning-hydroxychloroquine-in-covid-19/kairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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60% of deaths come from just 5 states. MatSpirit: Whoever says geography matters is an idiot.Barry Arrington_{April 30, 2020
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Barry: "Those who insist that regional differences make no difference are now in the “willfully obtuse” category." For what it's worth, I don't think you're being willfully obtuse. But I can see where people might get that idea. Your "rest of us" category includes all the states that started lock downs and serious social distancing way before the Northeast coast. Here's some fatality rates (and rates per million population) for the bigger states that started social distancing in time: California: 1956 (50) Washington 801 (110) Oregon 103 (25) Hawaii 16 (11) Minnesota 343 (62) (Bornagain77 is safe) Wisconsin 316 (55) (I'm safer) Colorado 766 (138) (You're fairly safe) From: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ March 30, 2020 Yet you, in your non-obtuse way, ignore the actions those states took and chalk the differences in fatalities up to "geography". Tell Mark Hillman that he's an IDiot.MatSpirit_{April 30, 2020
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VB
Why so condescending?
My apologies. I did not intend this, but on rereading I can see how it can come across as such. When I mentioned that the Republicans I know are highly educated and scientifically literate this is just because I come across most of them during the international scientific meetings that I frequently attend. The same can be said for most of the Democrats I know.
Curious Ed should all woman be believed , you know the mantra used against Kavanaugh?
No more so than all men should be.Ed George_{April 30, 2020
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I personally know many democrats and to a person they haven't got a clue on anything. Thankfully we do not have a democrat for PotUS. They think that crazy Joe Biden is the answer and yet he is totally clueless.ET_{April 30, 2020
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JVL, we shall see. KFkairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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KairosFocus: Sorry, phone calls etc. Never, ever apologise for having a life!! As a natural result, there is a dominant worldview or range of live options for worldviews, cultural visions, narratives and agendas. That is the context in which I spoke. Yes, I get that but I don't think you understand how completely the UK populace has split over Brexit but still agrees on Trump. That means people from views at death stare standing are finding some common ground on the US President. I appreciate your attempts at being supportive but, in all honesty, you don't live in the UK and you don't know what is happening on an hour by hour basis. So yes, there is diversity but it is within a fairly narrow zone relative to major views and thought across time and space. Yes, newspapers etc will come from different points in the local market for ideas, voices, visions and agendas, but other than the extremes, they will cluster in the Overton zone, held there by the opposed walkaway points of strong enough factions and interests. In that setting, there will be a lot more agreement and cohesiveness than one may at first imagine. Comments like that tell me you are only speaking of the UK in a perceived rather than an experienced sense. Typically, the USA will be seen and sneered at as half barbarian. For example, in most educated circles in Europe the thought that one has a right to keep and bear arms as a fundamental right seems to be nonsensical and indefensible. And more. Europe loved Barack Obama, they thought he was a real statesman. This is NOT a ideological bias against the USA. It's a studied and considered rejection of Donald Trump as a capable leader. In the UK, esp. England, Brexit reveals the peasant uprising I have mentioned.Think about why it took what, THREE votes for the political and chattering classes to grudgingly acknowledge that hoi polloi really mean it. You're misreading things. The country is dead-split on Brexit. But they are unified on Trump. Their view of Trump has nothing to do with your perceived peasant uprising. While there are many things I dislike about Mr Trump, I also recognise that he is not the idiot and traitor the media have portrayed in lockstep. Including, on this latest matter, where the typical acceptable view among many circles would be absolutely predictable. Again, I will just say that widely divergent political views in the UK have come together regarding Donald Trump and no one is saying he's a traitor. And I think that is true across Europe. You can choose to apologise for him but he is extremely divisive across the planet with most people outside the US voting two-thumbs down. As you say, we shall see in due course but I would recommend to you that you try and evaluate his performance a bit more objectively; i.e. just because he gets some things right by you does not mean he's right about other things.JVL_{April 30, 2020
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Vivid, it is clear the Republican elites do not like Mr Trump and have more in common with the Democrat elites than with the deplorables. KFkairosfocus_{April 30, 2020
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