Intelligent Design

Geography Matters

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In response to my last post (The Data Are in: A Nationwide Lockdown Was Never Necessary) Bob O’H got red in the face, stamped his feet, and apparently insisted that a nationwide lockdown was necessary. Was it? Here is an analysis performed by a friend:

To put US COVID19 cases into perspective, it helps to separate the terrible outbreak in the five-state region of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts from the other 45 states. (Stats as of April 25.)

Total Population
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 39.8 million
Rest of US – 288 million

COVID Cases – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 490,675 (12,312)
Rest of US – 496,657 (1,722)

COVID Deaths – Total (per million people)
NY-NJ-CT-RI-MA – 33,262 (835)
Rest of US – 22,153 (77)

HT: Mark Hillman

Those who insist that regional differences make no difference are now in the “willfully obtuse” category.

141 Replies to “Geography Matters

  1. 1
    Bob O'H says:

    Bob O’H got red in the face, stamped his feet, and apparently insisted that a nationwide lockdown was necessary.

    Barry, this is utterly false. Did you do that deliberately, or did you just not understand what I had written?

  2. 2
    Barry Arrington says:

    Bob,
    I posted that a nationwide lockdown was never necessary. You poo-pooed the evidence from Sweden. You insisted that the statistical analysis supporting my post was “nonsense.”
    The readers will decide whether to believe you or their own eyes.

  3. 3
    asauber says:

    I think getting Bob O’H to admit that *anything* his tribe favors is unnecessary, would be the holy grail of UD comments.

    Andrew

  4. 4
    Barry Arrington says:

    Andrew, you’ve hit upon something there. That an expert in statistics would advance his seat-of-the-pants intuitions as a challenge to rigorous statistical testing speaks volumes. Bob’s conclusions are driven by tribalism. And he supports his tribe in the face of the statistical evidence. God help us.

  5. 5
    Seversky says:

    Lockdowns don’t work?

    Coronavirus: New Zealand claims no community cases as lockdown eases

    New Zealand says it has stopped community transmission of Covid-19, effectively eliminating the virus.

    With new cases in single figures for several days – one on Sunday – Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said the virus was “currently” eliminated.

    […]

    The news comes hours before New Zealand is set to move out of its toughest level of social restrictions

    […]

    How did New Zealand respond to the virus?

    The country brought in some of the toughest restrictions in the world on travel and activity early on in the pandemic, when it only had a few dozen cases.

    It closed its borders, started enforcing quarantine of all arrivals in the country, brought in a stringent lockdown and mounted an extensive testing and contact tracing operation.

    Beaches, waterfronts and playgrounds were shut on 26 March, as were offices and schools. Bars and restaurants were also closed, including for takeaway and delivery.

  6. 6
    jerry says:

    I live in New Hampshire which is small but located next to your notorious 5. Most of the cases are in the two larger counties near Massachusetts. Their infection rates are near triple the rest of the state which is fairly rural in the northern part of the state. Total deaths in NH are 60 as of this morning and an article from a few days ago said 60% were in nursing homes.

    Deaths per million is 46, which is lower than your rest of US average.

    Women next door cannot get operation for torn ligaments in her knee. The reason being the hospitals have essentially been closed to non C19 cases even though there are not many in state. They do not want to take chance of any non emergency patient catching the virus while there for the procedure and recovery.

    Meanwhile hospitals in the state like the rest of the US are laying off medical personnel because they have no business and cannot afford to pay them.

  7. 7
    Barry Arrington says:

    Sev,
    No one is saying lockdowns are not appropriate under certain circumstances. New York and New Jersey almost certainly needed to lockdown. As Jerry explains in the next comment, rural New Hampshire almost certainly did not.
    You are a statist. And we all know that statists have a hard time making fine distinctions when they are hammering down on people with government power. So my comment is really for people who understand that government power should be exercised with nuance, not an iron fist. And that appears to exclude you.

  8. 8
    jerry says:

    he supports his tribe in the face of the statistical evidence. God help us.

    Couple things, tribalism has always been the strongest organizing concept in human history. It is just what constitutes a tribe these days has changed. People should read about Ibn Khaldun and his concept of asabiyya which describes social cohesion as one of the strongest forces in human history.

    Two comments I made from another thread.

    Second and may be the most tragic, is the irresponsible behavior of many to make this a political situation while people die from the virus and from the economic shutdown.

    There is a third and possibly equally tragic reaction, that people don’t seem to care that tens of thousands of people have lost their lives unnecessarily to the political squabbling and to the economic hardship. I have seen this on both sides of the political spectrum. I said to one of my conservative friends that he didn’t seem to care about the hardships out there but would respond more seriously when his investments prove worthless. He’s worth a couple million dollars and it could all vanish as the economy deflates more and more. Some of us who are comfortable believe they are immune to the economic outcomes..

    We are seeing asabiyya play out in the extreme in this debate. Will it continue past financial ruin which even the liberals will face as their source of income disappears.

  9. 9
    Jim Thibodeau says:

    This reminds me of that Jack Chick tract, where the good Anglo-Saxon looking Christian student destroys the evil Darwinist Jew professor.

    it’s easy to win an argument when you get to write both sides of the debate. But it doesn’t actually accomplish anything. Maybe it makes the speaker feel smart, but that’s about it.

  10. 10
    daveS says:

    JT,

    “Big Daddy”? That’s a classic.

  11. 11
    Jim Thibodeau says:

    Yeah, I keep thinking they’re going to edit that one because the original is so obviously anti-Semitic. Not surprising for a 20th century evangelical fundy

  12. 12
    Barry Arrington says:

    Jim Thibodeau (aka Kevin) is no longer with us. We try to give commenters latitude, but there is a limit to the amount of bigotry and hate we will allow be be spewed into our combox. Jim passed it some time ago.

  13. 13
    orthomyxo says:

    If the point is that states are highly heterogeneous on their risk of covid19 outbreak (I agree) then it stands to reason that simply correlating deaths per million and time-to-lockdown without accounting for those differences can’t isolate the effect of lockdown alone. The linked study seems very odd, as they use a 21 day window with most states starting there lockdown inside that window. It typically takes > 2 weeks to go from infection to death, do the majority of analysed deaths are the result of infections that occurred before lockdown.

    One of the things we try to teat trainees is that simply getting a p-value or statistic out of a stats package (or even excel) doesn’t make an analysis rigourous.

    So, it’s quite possible to think geography matters and the benifits (or optimal timing) of a lockdown might differ between regions but also think this analysis is useless in deciding that.

  14. 14
    asauber says:

    “Jim Thibodeau (aka Kevin) is no longer with us.”

    I feel confident in marking this as Covid-related. 😉

    Andrew

  15. 15
    Ed George says:

    Just for interest sake, who is Kevin?

  16. 16
    vividbleau says:

    What disturbs me most is that I hear from people something like this” Has the government given us the ok to go to the park, shoot hoops, see my kids” as if it’s the government’s right to just abrogate the constitution. As the governor of NJ was asked if before he put in the lockdown did he think about the bill of rights and he said “Never crossed my mind” Think about that I almost fell off the couch!
    Should the government protect others from my behavior if my behavior can cause harm to innocent people? Yes they should, but if I want to do something that will not harm others then the government should stay out of my affairs.
    I have sheltered in place this last month and am open to any restrictions my state authorities recommend but that is only because I voluntarily choose to do so. It is alarming how quickly people have just given up their liberty and constitutional rights without being aware that they have done so.

    Vivid

  17. 17
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, it seems that local governments need to be involved in lockdown vs opening up decisions and the tradeoff between lives lost through the epidemic and lives lost through impacts of triggered recession. That sort of calculus is why Economics has been called the dismal science. I remember my dad [a distinguished policy economist], with pain in his eyes, warning me from taking up that discipline. Looks like we may not be interested in dismal tradeoffs but dismal tradeoffs are interested in us. I think the only reasonable way forward is through reasonably effective treatments and social distancing measures that reduce rate of transmission. I suspect face masks are about to become fashion items, I am already seeing decorated ones. I strongly suggest, reusable masks with filter pockets for light duty use. And, alcohol is your friend. Everclear 190 or other neutral grain spirit, as a last resort. I guess, J Wray & Nephew Overproof etc at 63% are in-range, but those wimpy numbers sound a bit too weak for my taste. I laid up some 91% isopropyl, and I am using it to flush my industrial mask. KF

  18. 18
    Bob O'H says:

    I posted that a nationwide lockdown was never necessary. You poo-pooed the evidence from Sweden.

    No, I poo-pooed the comparison of Sweden to US states. You really need to learn how to read, I’d guess it’s a helpful skill for a lawyer.

  19. 19
    kairosfocus says:

    Vivid, maybe they are deferring to the medical experts advising officials? I think we now face a dismal, wartime tradeoff, of lives vs lives, now vs later. This is a hard day, to come to that. KF

  20. 20
    rhampton7 says:

    Meat processors throughout the US, especially in the red states, have been hit very hard by the virus even with social distancing.

    It’s not simply urban vs rural

  21. 21
    rhampton7 says:

    Beef, chicken and pork could be as scarce as toilet paper soon because so many meat processing plants have been temporarily shut down amid the coronavirus pandemic, industry experts are warning.

    “The cause of the shortage is reduced production due to labor issues at the packing plants,” Smith said. “Some plants have closed for deep cleaning and will remain closed until the employee base has recovered from the virus. Others are implementing safety procedures which in effect slows processing speed at the plants.”

    The experts weighed-in as Tyson Foods took out full-page ads Sunday in The Washington Post, The New York Times and The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette warning that the “food supply is breaking.”

  22. 22
    rhampton7 says:

    Missouri Governor Mike Parson says testing plant workers for the coronavirus is critical to keeping the food supply chain open for the state and the nation. Parson stays testing IS available for plants that choose to test their workers.

    Community COVID-19 testing is taking place in two counties in Missouri where there’s a higher incidence of the illness: in Saline County where ConAgra and Cargill plants are located and in Moniteau County, where Burger’s Smokehouse has closed because of coronavirus cases.

    The Smithfield processing plant in the Martin City area of Kansas City has shut down because of coronavirus cases.

  23. 23
    orthomyxo says:

    KF,

    I think the only reasonable way forward is through reasonably effective treatments and social distancing measures that reduce rate of transmission.

    For countries that can’t reasonably eliminate or suppress the epidemic (due to lack of infrastructure or letting the disease escape) that’s quite possibly true. Not sure alcohol is so important, soap does the trick just fine (though is admittedly less portable).

  24. 24
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, if treatments are affordable and out patient based — IF — that is big. Africa is not going to be able to surge ICU’s and US$ 40k+ ventilators etc. Soap-water works but is a problem for highly frequent hand and surface cleansing. Also, they mess up certain things that [re-]sanitise with alcohol just fine. KF

  25. 25
    jerry says:

    The rationale for the lockdown is not to save lives. If you think it is, tell me how that is going to happen. The lockdown has a its main purpose not to spike the rate of infection and rapidly increase demands on the hospital system. It is meant to spread out the infections and deaths over time. Thus, approximately the same number will get the virus and the same number will die but just over a longer period of time.

    The term used is flattening the curve. But that does not mean less deaths. Just the same number of deaths over a longer period of time.

    One possible answer is that we may develop a vaccine and when that happens we can come out of our shells. But that is several months off at best.

    The other possible answer is that there will be a cure for the virus. Anyone here have any suggestions for that? Many here have a candidate but there is always the resistance of several to this idea. But they propose no alternative other than a destruction of the economy and probably more dead to that than to the virus. That is what those who oppose using a potential cure have in mind when they argue against using the proposed treatments.

  26. 26
    rhampton7 says:

    Doctors at hospitals in New York City and Philadelphia say they have ‘never seen so many’ young people suffer large vessel occlusions, the deadliest type of stroke.

    A study in 15 medical centres over three weeks found 40 per cent of LVO admissions were in COVID-19 patients under 50 – the average age for the severe stroke is 74.

    Separate research, not yet peer-reviewed, looked at 214 COVID-19 patients treated at three hospitals in Wuhan, China. It found 36 per cent had neurological symptoms like impaired consciousness or blood clots in the brain.

    Once thought to be disease that primarily attacks the lungs, doctors are now starting to believe many coronavirus deaths are caused by blood clots.

  27. 27
    rhampton7 says:

    Roughly half the crew members on the USS Kidd have been tested for the virus, and some have been evacuated, the Navy said.

    “As of today, 45% of USS Kidd (DDG 100) crewmembers have been tested for COVID-19, with 47 total positive results, according to Navy Live, the service branch’s official blog:

    “Two Sailors have been medically evacuated to the United States. 15 Sailors have been transferred to USS Makin Island (LHD 8) for monitoring due to persistent symptoms. None are in the ICU or on ventilators. Sailors aboard Kidd are wearing PPE and N95 masks.”

  28. 28
    rhampton7 says:

    The Tri-County Health Department said that the Aurora, CO Walmart was cleaned and disinfected over the weekend and has good social distancing measures, an enhanced system of keeping track of the number of customers in the store, one-way aisles and a strong worker illness screening and reporting process.

    The department closed the store Thursday following complaints from employees and shoppers about a lack of social distancing. It said that a 69-year-old man who worked for a private security company at the store had died along with a 72-year-old store employee and her 63-year-old husband, who did not work at the site.

    There are 11 other coronavirus cases linked to the outbreak at the store, the department said.

  29. 29
    jerry says:

    RHampton is back with doom and gloom. The strokes are explained by the virus attacking the ACE2 receptors on blood cells. This causes a cascade of other effects causing coagulation and clotting.

    Could most of these Navy personnel been spared any harmful affects of the disease if they took the treatment?

  30. 30
    orthomyxo says:

    Jerry,

    The rationale for the lockdown is not to save lives. If you think it is, tell me how that is going to happen.

    There are a few ways.

    As your own post says, and uncontrolled epidemic could overwhelm health systems and lead to a higher death rate among the infected and kill people who can’t be treated for routine illness.

    Second, the longer the epidemic can be kept smouldering rather than raging the longer you have to develop effective treatments or a vaccine. Current treatment trials are a mixed bag, but there are a lot of pre-existing treatments to test and more will be developed.

    Finally, limiting transmission means fewer infections are required for “herd immunity” to be reached and fewer people will be infected after than milestone as a result of “overshoot” (though, note, this is premised on the idea some for of physical distancing says well after the peak in deaths, which might not be politically manageable).

  31. 31
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, I agree with your first point, was about to suggest that. On the second, this disease’s main waves will likely come through in about 1 – 2 years. That sort of timeline is about the same as the estimates for a fast development cycle for a vaccine. Similarly, the approvals process for treatments will likely drag out beyond the main waves. Unsustainable lockdowns will not create herd immunity, they postpone the bulk of the disease while opening up loss of life from economic breakdown. There is a dismal choice issue on the table. KF

  32. 32
    jerry says:

    There are a few ways.

    I was well aware of reason 1 and discussed it with my wife just after making my post. It is discussed on MedCram several times. It is the only valid reason but as we are finding out has extraordinary negative outcomes as RHamptom roams the site with his optimism

    Also we are learning that hospitals are not treating the disease. They are ameliorating patients’ symptoms in the hope their immune system can win the battle. At the same time spreading the virus to health care workers.

    The other two seem to be bogus. Vaccines sound good but are a long way off and we already have a cure. But we have Bob O’H roaming the site with a phony need for purity. It’s like a city being strafed in war and demanding that the guns must go through a thorough testing before we can shoot back.

    Herd immunity may be the only way out but it has to be quick. Lockdowns will extend it too far into the future that there may be little left when it arrives. Already major food suppliers are talking about shutting down.

    The irony is that hospitals all over the country are laying off people as they are not treating people.

    Instead insanity rules.

  33. 33
    orthomyxo says:

    We don’t have a cure at present. I assume you are referring to hydroxychloroquine, but there are now quite a few disappointing studies for this drug. It’s seems safe at any impact from this will be small.
    Re: your other comments, I don’t think anyone is advocating many many months in “lockdown”waiting for a treatment. Rather, the goal is to get some control over the epidemic now then lift measures to allow more of the economy to function while keeping the epedemic in hand. In that case physical distancing might in place all year, but full lockdowns won’t.

  34. 34
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry,

    When “Instead insanity rules” then, we look for a business as usual framework backed by dominant factions and locking in an adverse trend in the teeth of signs that something is seriously wrong. Of course, power factions are generally able to insulate themselves from the worst pain, exporting such to the disregarded or despised other. There is likely to be stereotyping and scapegoating of strawman caricature targets for fear, resentment, hostility. Resemblance to current political gamesmanship and media antics in the USA is not coincidental.

    The reason insanity rules is that warped views are shaping policy and warped power systems . . . and the media are a power system . . . are locking in an agenda that serves dominant factions and their perceived interests. But now, we have an incipient crisis triggered by the advent of a pandemic viral disease.

    If it was a bacterial, there would be antibiotics and it would have been locked down. But as there are no established broad spectrum antivirals, highly contagious novel viral diseases can spin utterly out of control. That’s why once this virus broke out in China and spread, we were looking at a large number of deaths. We are forced to resort to quarantine and lock down measures, even while such create economic and social chaos, also giving the power hungry a taste of near totalitarian control. (Remember, never let a crisis go to waste?)

    At this point, there is a dismal choice, power clash to decide onward paths for our civilisation. Deaths by at least dozens to hundreds of thousands are inevitable globally, from the plague. They were locked in from the moment it broke out. This, regardless of containment measures. However, some containment can reduce it from where it could go unchecked. The Spanish Flu and beyond it the Black Death show what is possible.

    On the other hand, severe containment measures cannot be sustained. Otherwise, economic breakdown and even more deaths and chaos lurk. With war a likely consequence.

    So, there is a dismal choice tightrope, and there are a lot of people who see such a crisis as an opportunity for a totalitarian power grab that allows them to remake the world to suit their agendas.

    The sound answer is to try initial containment to break exponential growth then to transition to a sustainable new norm until long term measures stop the pestilence. Those will take years.

    Meanwhile, there are factions that have to be reined in.

    And it looks like face masks are a new fashion statement. With Wuhan space suits not far behind.

    KF

  35. 35
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, the fact that you single out one component of a cocktail and fail to distinguish early intervention from trying to retrieve a situation where serious damage has set in, leading to heightened odds of death, is telling. Zelenko in particular has been very explicit about such issues. In effect you are setting up and knocking over a strawman caricature. Please, stop. There is a baseline that shows chemical effectiveness in plausible in-tissue concentrations, there are candidate mechanisms [several of which may be working in parallel], there is a near business as usual flu with complications baseline and there are thousands of cases showing that early intervention with a cocktail makes something like a 90% reduction in deaths. Attempted dismissals strongly tend to attack strawman caricatures and we have seen designs proposed that have to be regarded as deck-stacking: synergistic action of drug cocktails is a longstanding established fact so to segregate components to look for effects on which one would only then consider a cocktail, is frankly criminal negligence. And more. KF

  36. 36
    jerry says:

    We don’t have a cure at present

    Of course we do. What disappointing studies? I’m not aware of any. It could be less than we hope but so far no negative reports.

    Don’t bring up the VA survey which is irrelevant. There are several reports of successful interventions. Zelenko has a large practice which include himself with his other doctor plus 4 nurse practitioners and 1500 patients.

    Then there Is Raoult and Brazil. Then there is Singer and his group of over 60 doctors. Then there is Todaro and his analysis and plan based on results from multiple doctors.

  37. 37
    ET says:

    We can fight covid 19 with OTC supplements. People can choose to take them or not. But now that we can fight covid 19 with OTC supplements the lockdown is no longer needed.

  38. 38
    MatSpirit says:

    Barry: “Jim Thibodeau (aka Kevin) is no longer with us. We try to give commenters latitude, but there is a limit to the amount of bigotry and hate we will allow be be spewed into our combox. Jim passed it some time ago.”

    Could you give the rest of us a little guidance here? Where exactly did Jim Thibodeau express bigotry or hatred? I hope you’re not saying that accurately calling Jack Chick an anti-Semite is bigotry because he obviously was. Just look at the pictures. He was anti-Catholic too. Again, just look at the comic strips. And liberals … wow!

    I didn’t see him express any hate, either. Perhaps if you’d outline where you think he showed bigotry or hatred, it would help everybody.

  39. 39
    orthomyxo says:

    Jerry,

    The guardian has a running list of HCQ studies: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-scientific-studies-research. One RCT suggests a modest effect. We will see, but taking the results as a whole doesn’t look good for HCQ.

  40. 40
    orthomyxo says:

    ET,

    I’m sorry, but that’s the weirdest claim I’ve heard during this whole pandemic! Any evidence for this?

  41. 41
    orthomyxo says:

    KF,

    I really don’t understand why you are all wedded to the idea HCQ is effective (in some combo). It would be great if it were true, but the evidence just isn’t there. If you follow drug development at all you know that drugs with plausible modes of action and promising in vitro (or mammalian model) results fail in human trials more often than they succeed.

    At the moment the evidence for HCQ alone is disappointing. Studies will continue, including those with cocktails, but at the moment the evidence just isn’t very good. (It should also be pointed out the drugs combined with HCQ often have the potential for serious side effects)

  42. 42
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, WHEN are they administering the cocktail — early or late — and is it a cocktail? From Raoult, they worked with cardiac specialists [it’s a big complex] to manage for complications. Given an earlier Guardian article I am not confident in their reporting or in apples vs apples. See Ms Lin on S Korea. KF

    PS: Ms Lin, HT Jerry:

    Hydroxychloroquine used by Korea for Covid-19 while US is divided
    Apr 27, 2020, 9:52 PM

    South Korea recommended the anti-malarial drug HCQ to treat Covid-19 while political interference in the US over the drug has alarmed medical experts

    [ . . . ]

    Medical treatments have traditionally been a private decision between patients and doctors, but now it seems politicians are usurping their right to choose. According to Dr Jeffrey Singer, a general surgeon and Cato Institute fellow, this threatens the integrity of the medical profession and indirectly imperils patients, by denying them emergency options when no other alternatives are available.

    Moreover, the politicization of treatment options would not help Americans, given the fact countries such as Belgium, France and South Korea have used HCQ to treat Covid-19 with a good degree of success.

    South Korea was one of the first countries to be hit by the virus after China, reporting its first case on January 20 and peaking by late February, before suddenly tapering off in early March and “flattening the curve.” It also has a comparatively low mortality rate through a combination of testing, tracing, containment and HCQ . . . .

    Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), a well-known anti-malarial drug that has been around for decades, is now a political football between the Trump administration and Democrats during an election year in the United States.

    US President Donald Trump has repeatedly touted the drug and received significant pushback from the media and the Democratic Party, with the governors of Nevada, Michigan and New York even going so far as to issue executive orders restricting how doctors can use HCQ to treat patients suffering from Covid-19.

    Medical treatments have traditionally been a private decision between patients and doctors, but now it seems politicians are usurping their right to choose. According to Dr Jeffrey Singer, a general surgeon and Cato Institute fellow, this threatens the integrity of the medical profession and indirectly imperils patients, by denying them emergency options when no other alternatives are available.

    Moreover, the politicization of treatment options would not help Americans, given the fact countries such as Belgium, France and South Korea have used HCQ to treat Covid-19 with a good degree of success.

    South Korea was one of the first countries to be hit by the virus after China, reporting its first case on January 20 and peaking by late February, before suddenly tapering off in early March and “flattening the curve.” It also has a comparatively low mortality rate through a combination of testing, tracing, containment and HCQ.

    Last month, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Korean Society of Infectious Diseases, Korean Society for Antimicrobial Therapy, Korean Society of Pediatric Infectious Diseases and a tuberculosis association recommended the use of Kaletra, an anti-HIV medication, in combination with HCQ, to treat Covid-19.

    This was bolstered by a French study that showed HCQ had an antiviral effect against Covid-19 in confirmed cases. Used in conjunction with the azithromycin Z-Pak, most patients cleared the virus in three to six days rather than the 20 days observed in China, drastically narrowing the period during which a patient can spread the virus to others.

    As such, Dr Jeff Colyer, chairman of the US National Advisory Commission on Rural Health, and Dr Daniel Hinthorn, director of the Division of Infectious Disease at the University of Kansas Medical Center, in a Wall Street Journal article recommended that the US could adopt this approach and use the treatment cocktail early rather than wait until a patient is on a ventilator in an intensive care unit.

    To be clear, these scientists and doctors now recommend HCQ as a treatment, not a preventive measure, for Covid-19. They argue that a positive effect of using HCQ early is the reduction of virus transmission to other people given the shorter number of days the patients remain contagious, thereby flattening the curve sooner.

    Remember, SK has beaten this wave.

  43. 43
    kairosfocus says:

    PS: It’s not being “wedded: to an idea, it is a cluster of direct data amounting to thousands of cases backed by in vitro at plausible concentrations, known ability to get into the body with manageable side effects, and the apples vs oranges pattern of discordant results. Especially on seeing the gold standard fallacy. 0.38^100 = ____

  44. 44
    orthomyxo says:

    It’s always possible to make a post hoc justification to save you favoured hypothesis. If the handful of doctors who have become famous from this think that have a protocol that works they should publish it. Others can then run the trials and we’ll see if it works.

  45. 45
    ET says:

    Ortho- read the following: EVMS CRITICAL CARE COVID-19 MANAGEMENT PROTOCOL. It provides a list of OTC supplements to be used to fight this virus.

  46. 46
    orthomyxo says:

    OK… the article you linked to say there is no evidence that this works. So I’m not sure it’s going to be the answer to ending lockdowns.

  47. 47
    ET says:

    Wow, the science says it will work. Quercetin is an ionophore. That plus the zinc will stop the virus from replicating. Vitamin D boosts the immune system.

  48. 48
    orthomyxo says:

    and disinfectant will kill the virus on a surface, Doesn’t make for a treatment though. I think we should probably wait until there is any evidence that taking these supplements protects from the virus before we declare it safe to reopen

  49. 49
    ET says:

    The science says it. That is what has you confused- it’s science. And that is why the list exists- the science.

  50. 50
    orthomyxo says:

    I’m not sure I’ve ever read someone who understands less about how scientific evidence works. As I say, I don’t think this is likely to be the panacea that ends the pandemic.

  51. 51
    ET says:

    Wow. Your false accusation is duly noted. There are plenty of papers that demonstrate zinc prevents viruses from replicating. There are others that demonstrate quercetin is an ionophore.

    The list isn’t something they threw together willy-nilly. And the only reason it won’t end the pandemic is because people won’t follow it.

    And if you look at the alternative, riding it out hoping your immune system kills it before it kills you, take some Tylenol and rest, I don’t really understand the resistance.

    But do tell of your vast experience about how scientific evidence works. And how somehow you know better than the existing science.

  52. 52
    jerry says:

    As I say, I don’t think this is likely to be the panacea that ends the pandemic.

    Right now there is no treatment for this disease in the US. So doing nothing is leading to thens of thousands of deaths in the US. Just under 60,000 as I write this. So are there things working besides nothing? Here is a report from a group of doctors about HCQ – Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS)

    It is dated Sunday. https://bit.ly/3bON2Pl

    It is a list of various studies and surveys done and most of the deaths they found are from the VA survey covered here last week.

    Here is anaecdotal information from Italy. It’s in Italian but if you use Chrome and its translation feature, you can get the information in English. Has a lot of numbers. It is mostly positive about HCQ. https://bit.ly/2VKl6GD

    Zelenko will publish his results next week as someone who is an expert in this, publishing data, is working with him. His results are in the AAPS report above.

    I think the answer is that if the US had used HCQ from the start it would have saved a large percentage of those 60,000 lives if administered early and if zinc had been added, it would have saved more.

  53. 53
    jerry says:

    And the only reason it won’t end the pandemic is because people won’t follow it.

    Anecdotal information – I have spoken to about 20 people about the results of zinc. Only one was interested. Just this afternoon I had a nice conversation with a neighbor who listened for a few minutes and quickly changed the subject to something else which we both then talked about. One good friend said he won’t take anything because he does not like taking stuff. Understand that completely but the interesting thing is he wasn’t interested in why it would work.

  54. 54
    kairosfocus says:

    Ortho, strawman caricature. Bleach or the like show separate indications that they are so toxic that they are effectively useless inside the body at typical concentrations such as 3 – 5%; though 10:1 diluted solutions are used externally and a rather diluted solution is routinely used to make water safe for drinking; which is an ingestion of a known poison that we routinely do without a moment’s hesitation. By utter contrast, HCQ, Azithromycin and Zn supplements have all been routinely used, with manageable toxicity. For that matter, let’s go to betadine, which IIRC blends Iodine and H2O2, and is used with wounds, so we now look at a halogen and a peroxide that can be used in a limited way on the body. Here’s the kicker, there is in fact a relatively unusual treatment that infuses a small amount of H2O2 INTERNALLY. Next, to correct the agit prop smear being trumpeted far and wide by the corrupt media [who would all have had the AP press release], there is a treatment that Cedars Sinai of LA has been working on for 3+ years that inserts UV sources and flashes the trachea to kill microbes. The attempt to censor this at YouTube further shows the utter dishonesty of such media, with lives on the line. A disregard that fits right in with 40+ years of enabling the worst, ongoing holocaust in history, the slaughter of our living posterity in the womb of at least 800+ millions and growing at up to another million per week. Which then could easily lead to pointed questions as to what devious political advantage is being sought by trumpeting a case of far less deaths than one week of abortions, and using the alleged concern to save lives to push for keeping going an economy lockdown liable to trigger serious famines etc across the world. Do you see the sort of can of worms opened up by that sort of rhetoric? Do you really want to go there? Please, think again. KF

  55. 55
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry, per Google Translate on your linked Italian language article . . . which is certainly available to the media houses:

    Hydroxychloroquine is one of the treatments against Coronavirus being tested, and is approved by AIFA (Italian Medicines Agency). The pioneer in this field is the Director of Hematology-Oncology of Piacenza, Luigi Cavanna. It was the first in Italy to use it, an intuition that is proving significant. “Since February 25, I have treated 209 patients and in 90% of cases the response has been positive. Hospitalizations have collapsed: from 30% of hospitalized (serious or moderate cases) to less than 5% “. The change, according to Cavanna, came with the administration of hydroxychloroquine from the earliest stages of the disease, when patients were at home, and resulted in the hospitalization of very few cases in acute conditions. A treatment that, according to preliminary data collected and systematized by 5 different ASLs on 1,039 patients, is working throughout Italy.

    Do I get a whiff of not invented here, multiplied by toxic political polarisation, WRT the USA?

    Smells like that.

    KF

  56. 56
    kairosfocus says:

    BTW, strong rumour here is, we are about to go into a third cycle of 24/7 lockdown. I am queasy about this, as the rumour just got featured in the news, tickling my management of expectations whiskers. KF

  57. 57
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Just to confirm, I went to Chlorox, who recommend that one use regular unscented bleach purchased within the last 4 months [ this is the 5.25% conc], at a rate of 8 drops per gallon in clear, non-cloudy water and let stand for 30 minutes. For the newer 8.25% Sodium Hypochlorite version, a suggestion would be 5 drops per gallon. These are US, Wine Gallon gallons, 3.785 l/Gal. The imperial gallon is about 20% larger. I also would then pass through a carbon filter such as Brita, to get back a decent taste. Notice, the manufacturer feels that the public can be trusted enough to be given such highly concentrated bleach and that it will be reasonably able to use it to purify water without poisoning itself. KF

    PS: Cross checked, memory is wrong, Betadine is povidone-iodine

  58. 58
    jerry says:

    toxic political polarisation

    Toxic polarization most definitely. There are polls that show that nearly all Democrats would not use the drug while a majority of Republicans would. There was an article yesterday in the Wall Street Journal titled

    The Secret Group of Scientists and Billionaires Pushing a Manhattan Project for Covid-19

    It trashed HCQ and the comments contained a mixture of pro and anti HCQ. I bet based on political leanings.

    I mentioned the other day that if Trump had disparaged HCQ, all the headlines in the news would be “Trump has blood on his hands” because he dissed a potential life saving drug. So many do not really care about people’s lives until it gets personal. It’s like the famous scene on the Ferris wheel in the Third Man when Orson Wells describes the people down below like dots when seen from a height.

  59. 59
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry, that is a sign of agit prop and linked breakdown of objective, rational thinking shaped by duty to truth, right reason, prudence etc. Very bad signs. KF

  60. 60
    Bob O'H says:

    kf @ 57 – I think you should make it clear that Chlorox weren’t recommending drinking bleach solution as a cure for COVID-19, but as an alternative to boiling water, when there a clean water supply isn’t available.

    In their FAQs, they have one specifically about COVID-19, which says

    Bleach and other disinfectants are not suitable for consumption or injection under any circumstances. People should always read the label for proper usage instructions. Disinfecting surfaces with bleach and other disinfecting products is one of the ways to help stop the spread of COVID-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control. Our products are safe when used properly. It’s critical that everyone understands the facts in order to keep themselves safe and healthy, which is why we continue to educate people about how to use disinfectants safely and effectively against COVID-19.

  61. 61
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N Follow up on intravenous hydrogen peroxide — H2O2 — therapy https://www.austinozone.com/therapies/intravenous-hydrogen-peroxide-therapy/ And yes that is a disinfectant being used intravenously under physician control. A related O3 ozone therapy sees familiar objections:

    “In bio-oxidative medicine, oxygen is introduced directly into the body as hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) or as ozone (O3). Although ozone is used safely and with great benefit throughout Europe and in many other parts of the world, the medical establishment in the United States refuses to recognize it as a valid therapy and actively persecutes doctors who use it. Luckily, hydrogen peroxide is not treated in this way, even though it is an equally powerful oxidative approach.”

    It seems there is need for rebalancing.

    KF

  62. 62
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, red herring. The material point is that we routinely ingest a disinfectant in reasonable dosage as part of our daily lives. Chlorine bleach solution in a different concentration 1:10 in water, is used as a surface disinfectant; including, to target Covid-19 and other corona viruses. Chlorox or similar branded products are used by individuals when water is suspect [as I did for years with the water supply in my native city on realising I was reacting to it; I suspected old piping], but Chlorine gas is routinely used in municipal water supply systems. Further to this, the manufacturer and the EPA expect ordinary people to have the common sense to treat bleach with respect and even to disinfect water they are going to drink with it. This is on top of the piled on now manifestly deliberate agit prop big lie twisting of what Mr Trump said and tried to say, inserting terms like Lysol and Chlorox which were not present in order to try to poison attitudes. That speaks telling volumes, tripping red warning flags. KF

    PS: let me add, the FAQ is there in the context of irresponsible and frankly dishonest media and politicians adding words and ideas that were not there, creating a projection and suggestion. The idea that people would self-medicate with serious drugs or chemicals in the face of a fast moving life threatening disease itself says something. If proper public education was an aim, that is what would be being addressed. 4th gen civil war information battlespace, yet again.

  63. 63
    Ed George says:

    The fact that calls to poison centres increased significantly after Trump’s careless comments speaks volumes. Desperate people will try anything. And whether we like it or not, the President is a voice of authority and his words, often poorly thought out, have consequences. Consequences that he should be held accountable for.

  64. 64
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, it was not Mr Trump’s comments but the implicit suggestion in how they were twisted. If they had highlighted instead that someone is exploring the use of UV light in a modern way . . . they used to pass blood out of the body and irradiate it . . . the effect would have been different. Likewise, why desperation when there are in fact credible treatments on the table with a good track record of working when used early enough? Ans, they poisoned that, too so at best it is moving ahead under the radar. All of which leads me to think that patterns have designed causes, here who benefits from a climate of fear, hype, accusation, anger and polarisation. On that one, he spoke a day or two after the FDA had issued their early compassionate use etc permission. Had they reported it straight there would be a very different public attitude. Likewise, how hard is it to say, that Covid-19 is a serious disease and treatments need to be under a medical practitioner? Including, that drugs are poisons in small, useful doses but should not be treated lightly or carelessly. Nearly the same, for disinfectants — but I notice, you all have gone to 8.25% for something as corrosive as bleach, suggesting that you expect a different level of awareness and due caution. The creation of a deeply polarised public climate in the USA has sobering consequences, not least, when the US Media eventually do say important truth, people will be so turned off and hold them in such contempt that they will not listen. I have spoken to how social capital has been burned up. By the time people realise the cost it will be far too late. KF

  65. 65
    jerry says:

    The fact that calls to poison centres increased significantly after Trump’s careless comments speaks volumes

    Two things, first Trump’s comments were not careless. It was a layman’s explanation of how to possibly kill the virus. A proposed solution to the virus in an injection that would possibly kill the virus. That is essentially a form of disinfectant. Especially after the discussion of the uv inside the body treatment. Second, I would look at the incredible distortion by the press as the actual culprit and then people piling on with jokes and misinterpretations about it.

    So those who made a joke about it or a misinterpretation of what he said, should look in the mirror as helping this misinformation travel around the internet and affect some individuals counterproductive attempts to fight the virus.

  66. 66
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry, it’s actually more. I gather, someone was talking about effects of sunlight and heat on the virus. We had the response of an entrepreneurial executive with an ear for possible solutions, semi-brainstorming. If UV and temperature act as disinfectants, could they be got into the body as treatments? And that is exactly what is being explored. Which had been circulated through AP only a few days before, so the had easy access. Instead, somebody at NYT tried to shut down a video. So again, “who benefits from a climate of fear, hype, accusation, anger and polarisation”? Who say, thesis antithesis . . . implied crisis . . . synthesis? Or, never let a crisis go to waste? Those are very familiar tactics. KF

  67. 67
    Bob O'H says:

    Jerry –

    Two things, first Trump’s comments were not careless. It was a layman’s explanation of how to possibly kill the virus. A proposed solution to the virus in an injection that would possibly kill the virus.

    If you’re right and Trump’s comments weren’t careless, then that’s even worse. He was talking about a dangerous, potentially fatal, treatment, and suggesting (with absolutely no evidence) that it might work. To carelessly suggest this is dumb. If it wasn’t careless, then he has a a lot of culpability for the increase in bleach poisoning that followed his words.

    kf –

    We had the response of an entrepreneurial executive with an ear for possible solutions, semi-brainstorming. If UV and temperature act as disinfectants, could they be got into the body as treatments? And that is exactly what is being explored.

    I think to explore that privately is fine. But that’s not what Trump did. The danger of talking about it publicly is that people will think it’s worth trying, even though there’s no evidence it would work, and plenty of evidence that it could be dangerous. You would hope that a president would realise that their words matter, and are listened to, so they should be careful not to say something that could be construed as encouraging dangerous behaviour.

  68. 68
    Ed George says:

    KF

    EG, it was not Mr Trump’s comments but the implicit suggestion in how they were twisted.

    No, it was his comments. He mentions chloroquine with very little supporting evidence and people who need it for true and tested treatment can’t get it. He talks about using disinfectants as a treatment and people poison themselves. When Trump tweets a lot, the stock market falls. Those who have authority and influence over others have an obligation to think about the words they use. I don’t see what is so difficult to understand about that.

  69. 69
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, with all respect, nonsense. Mr Trump did not ever remotely suggest self-medication with Lysol or Chlorox. That was suggested by his accusers and twisters. Had the media acted responsibly, we would not be seeing any debate on such. Further to this, what we SHOULD be discussing is how this case further demonstrates the dishonest nature of ever so much of the media and political elites. They have carried out a plainly cynical agit prop operation, and show that the only reasonable response is to regard them as utterly untrustworthy, dangerous liars and slanderers willing to do whatever they can get away with for power. And, this is not isolated, it is manifestly part of a pattern sustained for years on end. In short they are playing with fatal disaffection. Only an utter fool plays with those matches. KF

  70. 70
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, see the just above. KF

  71. 71
    Ed George says:

    KF

    BO’H, with all respect, nonsense. Mr Trump did not ever remotely suggest self-medication with Lysol or Chlorox. That was suggested by his accusers and twisters. Had the media acted responsibly, we would not be seeing any debate on such.

    How does the media ridiculing the stupidity of his statements lead to people trying to self medicate with disinfectants? This doesn’t make any logical sense.

  72. 72
    kairosfocus says:

    F/N: Transcript:

    >>[ . . . ]

    Bill Bryan: (26:09)
    So, the virus is dying at a much more rapid pace just from exposure to higher temperatures and just from exposure to humidity. If you look at the fourth line, you inject the sunlight into that, you inject UV rays into that, the same effects on line two as 70 to 75 degrees with 80% humidity on the surface and look at line four but now you inject the sun, the half-life goes from six hours to two minutes. That’s how much of an impact UV rays has on the virus. The last two lines are aerosols, what does it do in the air? We have a very unique capability, I was discussing this with the president prior to coming out, he wanted me to convey it to you on how we do this. I believe we’re the only lab in the country that has this capability, but if you can imagine a five gallon Home Depot bucket, we’re able to take a particle, and this was design developed and designed by our folks at the NBAC. We’re able to take a particle of a virus and suspend it in the air inside of this drum and hit it with various temperatures, various humidity levels, multiple different kinds of environmental conditions to include sunlight. And we’re able to measure the decay of that virus while it’s suspended in the air. This is how we do our aerosol testing.

    Bill Bryan: (27:22)
    We worked with John Hopkins’ applied physics lab and we actually developed a larger drum to actually do more testing and it’s four times the size of that. So, this is the capability that we bring to this effort. So, in summary, within the conditions we’ve tested today, the virus in droplets of saliva survives best in indoors and dry conditions. The virus does not survive as well in droplets of saliva, and that’s important because a lot of testing being done is not necessarily being done, number one, with the COVID-19 virus and number two, in saliva or respiratory fluids. And thirdly, the virus dies the quickest in the presence of direct sunlight under these conditions. And when you look at that chart, look at the aerosol as you breathe it, you put it in a room, 70 to 75 degrees, 20% humidity, low humidity. Half-life is about an hour, but you get outside and it cuts down to a minute and a half. Very significant difference when it gets hit with UV rays. Mr. president, while there are many unknown links in the COVID-19 transmission chain, we believe these trends can support practical decision making to lower the risks associated with the virus. If I could have my next slide and while that comes up, you’ll see a number of some practical applications . . . .

    Donald Trump: (29:46)
    A question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposedly we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful. Steve, please.

    Steve: (30:50)
    You said that the country will be in a better place by early summer. Does that mean you’re going to need to extend the social distancing guidelines until then?

    Donald Trump: (30:57)
    Well, we may and we may go beyond that. We’re going to have to see where it is and I think people are going to know. You’re going to know, I’m going to know. I think people are going to know just out of common sense, at some point we won’t have to do that, but until we feel it’s safe, we’re going to be extending.

    Steve: (31:12)
    You have 23 States where new cases are on decline. What does that mean about when the country can be safely reopened to a more normal point?

    Donald Trump: (31:24)
    Yeah. It means we’re going to watch those cases very carefully. I think we’ve all gotten very good at it. We’ve gotten good at tracing. We see where the cases are, where they’re going, and we’re going to be watching it and it’s called containment. At a certain point, we’re going to be able to contain, and when you see this, a lot of people have been talking about summer. Maybe this is one of the reasons. I once mentioned that maybe it does go away with heat and light and people didn’t like that statement very much. The fake news didn’t like it at all and I just threw it out as a suggestion, but it seems like that’s the case because when it’s on a surface that would last for a long time, when that surface is outside, it goes away very quickly. It dies very quickly with the sun. Yeah, go ahead.>>

    A start point.

    KF

  73. 73
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, do you see your assumptions and projections of contempt? That already speaks. As to suggestion, it is word associations combined with the known common inattention to substance and context. KF

    PS: Dr Birx recently on an interview:

    Dr. Birx: “Well, you know I’ve had privilege to do media all over the world. Uh, people may not have seen me before ’cause it’s primarily been in South Africa and Asia because I’ve been working on vaccines and therapeutics and pandemics around the globe for a number of years. Um, I, I think the media, is, um, very slicey and dicey about how they put sentences together in order to create headlines. I think, you know, Amer…we know for millennials and other studies that some people may only read the headlines. Um, and if there’s not a graphic they’e not gonna look any further than that. And I think, we have to be responsible about our headlines. I think often the, the reporting may be accurate in paragraph three, four and five but I’m not sure how many people actually get to paragraph three, four and five. And I think the responsibility that the press has is to really ensure that the headlines reflect the science and data that is in their piece itself.”

    A sobering warning.

  74. 74
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, note from 55 above, the remark in an Italian article:

    Hydroxychloroquine is one of the treatments against Coronavirus being tested, and is approved by AIFA (Italian Medicines Agency). The pioneer in this field is the Director of Hematology-Oncology of Piacenza, Luigi Cavanna. It was the first in Italy to use it, an intuition that is proving significant. “Since February 25, I have treated 209 patients and in 90% of cases the response has been positive. Hospitalizations have collapsed: from 30% of hospitalized (serious or moderate cases) to less than 5% “. The change, according to Cavanna, came with the administration of hydroxychloroquine from the earliest stages of the disease, when patients were at home, and resulted in the hospitalization of very few cases in acute conditions. A treatment that, according to preliminary data collected and systematized by 5 different ASLs on 1,039 patients, is working throughout Italy.

    KF

  75. 75
    Ed George says:

    KF, so, you don’t think that those with significant authority and influence should be judicious with their words and be held accountable for them?

  76. 76
    jerry says:

    If you’re right and Trump’s comments weren’t careless, then that’s even worse. He was talking about a dangerous, potentially fatal, treatment, and suggesting (with absolutely no evidence) that it might work. To carelessly suggest this is dumb. If it wasn’t careless, then he has a a lot of culpability for the increase in bleach poisoning that followed his words.

    What was the dangerous and potentially fatal treatment? I did not see any. Trump talked about an injection. One of the prominent drugs promoted is administered by injection. And. the market rose about 300 points today on favorable mention of Remdesivir, administers by injection. Fauci said the news was good,. I’m not a fan of Fauci or Remdesivir but the market reacted positively to an injection.

    Who said anything about bleach. Trump didn’t but you did. You would have to look at people like yourself who are distorting this as the ones responsible. Why would they do this? I suggest you examine their motives.

  77. 77
    vividbleau says:

    KF
    One word and must see is “”Hoaxed” Haters of Trump are gonna hate no amount of facts is going to change that. He was a xenophobic and racist when he shut down travel now he did not do it soon enough. He was more concerned with Wall Street then he shut down the whole economy. Now he wants to open economy and we’re back to Wall Street. Remember Russia Russia Russia another a hoax. Trump could cure cancer and Bob and Ed would bitch that he is putting doctors out of work. It just goes on an on ,actually it would be fun to watch if the consequences were not so grave.
    Remember Kavanaugh? All this believe women BS from the left? What happened? The deception promulgated by the left is disgusting regarding believe women, yeh right.

    Vivid

  78. 78
    jerry says:

    Vivid,

    All. the resistance to Trump and HCQ is about politics. There is no semblance of caring for people dying or not. From my comment above

    I mentioned the other day that if Trump had disparaged HCQ, all the headlines in the news would be “Trump has blood on his hands” because he dissed a potential life saving drug. So many do not really care about people’s lives until it gets personal. It’s like the famous scene on the Ferris wheel in the Third Man when Orson Wells describes the people down below like dots when seen from a height.

    In this case they are not dots but just statistics on a chart showing number of people dead.

  79. 79
    vividbleau says:

    Jerry
    “Who said anything about bleach. Trump didn’t but you did. You would have to look at people like yourself who are distorting this as the ones responsible. Why would they do this? I suggest you examine their motives.“

    Yeh for example Ed did this awhile back, he distorted Trumps words, I asked him four times where Trump said what Ed said he said, it was like a black hole totally ignored, crickets.

    Vivid

  80. 80
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, now you are trying to set up and knock over a strawman. The transcript is above, a minor point — and one where Mr Trump’s instincts were demonstrably right — has been snipped out of context, another context involving Chlorox and Lysol has been substituted, and the corrective reference to an actual use of UV to irradiate the trachea has been censored. Then, the strawman has been pounded away on propagandistically by people who do or should know better. Now that I point this out, complete with transcript this has been transmuted into how I am imagining that public statements need not be judicious. That speaks, speaks tellingly. KF

    PS: If you think we are not taking due note of the relevance of all this when matters of inference on signs in general are on the table — especially signs of design — think again. In short, the centrality of first principles and duties of responsible reason are on the table.

  81. 81
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry & Vivid, you clearly have serious points. Sobering, given what we see in the large and even on the micro scale of this blog. I hold no brief for Mr Trump, but the underlying breakdown of responsible reason is a serious sign of our times. KF

  82. 82
    vividbleau says:

    Jerry KF
    Can’t make this stuff up if true. Remember the Az couple that ingested fish tank cleaner and Trump got blamed by the media and certain posters here? According to the Washington Free Beacon turns out there is an active investigation concerning his wife who had a previous citation for domestic violence against her husband. She was a democratic donor ( thousands of dollars over the last few years)she also donated money to a pro science resistance PAC. Her deceased husband was an engineer . “Hoaxed”

    Vivid

  83. 83
    Bob O'H says:

    Jerry @ 76 –

    kf posted transcripts @ 72, including this from Trump:

    And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me.

    So, yes, he was explicitly talking about injecting disinfectants. And what do most most households use as a disinfectant? Bleach.

  84. 84
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H: Snipping out of context, pushing into a different context and thus creating a strawman caricature to knock over. What would it have taken to accept this as a bit of impromptu brainstorming, connect to what is happening with UV and light therapies . . . including what was circulated on AP a day or two before . . . and note that the better vocabulary would be X, Y, Z? Or is it that the ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked projection must be maintained, for agit prop purposes and gaining a sympathetic understanding of a NYC Contractor as Contractor in Chief (which is not exactly a compliment, but would be fair minded and reasonable) would be fatal? All my red flags on agit prop, willful promotion of poisonous polarisation, hysterical divisiveness and more are tripped. Add to the mix the trollish question a few days later, suggesting that the mere presence and progress of a pandemic in the US is tantamount to the blunders of the Vietnam war, reveals an attitude of implacable and irresponsible hostility that is fatal to sober journalism. Ultimately, the price of this is fatal disaffection. Just remember, when the Athenians withdrew into their coastal, urban enclave, cut off from their hinterlands, it did not go well. KF

    PS: Kindly, cf 74 above. What is it that the Italians know? The South Koreans, Israelis, Indians, Brazilians etc?

    PPS: And what is the disinfectant most commonly used to purify drinking water in carefully regulated doses but which is widely regarded as dangerously corrosive, complete with a tellingly sharp odour as either an aqueous solution or a sickly green-yellow gas known to have been used as the first war gas? Were manufacturers daft when they shifted from 5.25 to 8.25%? Or, does that show, confidence that the general public understand what they are dealing with here? Did you notice that there are treatments that inject H2O2, another common disinfectant and bleaching/oxidising agent? Did you duly note the research context towards a therapy, where serious diseases are not to be treated by amateurish self-medication? Are you noticing the emergent police investigation of the last poison scandal, fish tank cleaner, as a homicide? And more?

  85. 85
    Bob O'H says:

    What would it have taken to accept this as a bit of impromptu brainstorming,

    I agree, that’s what it was. But impromptu brainstorming in public is a really bad idea for a US president to do, especially during an epidemic that’s already killed more Americans than the Vietnam war.

    And what is the disinfectant most commonly used to purify drinking water in carefully regulated doses but which is widely regarded as dangerously corrosive, complete with a tellingly sharp odour as either an aqueous solution or a sickly green-yellow gas known to have been used as the first war gas? (emphasis added)

    The one the US president was publically speculating about injecting into people, during his impromptu brainstorming.

    Did you notice that there are treatments that inject H2O2, another common disinfectant and bleaching/oxidising agent?

    Yes, treatments which are decried by most doctors, and which CBS implied was a prescription for death.

  86. 86
    jerry says:

    So, yes, he was explicitly talking about injecting disinfectants

    Can you read? A disinfectant kills microbes. The word “like” was used. Many medical injections act like disinfectants in that they end up killing microbes.

    I have a question. If someone consistently gets something wrong or irrelevant as you do what is the statistical chance this person is a good source for information or good judgment on anything?

    I always maintain you are pro ID and in this case pro HCQ because with numerous comments so far you are consistently wrong or irrelevant. It cannot be by chance. It must be a deliberate strategy.

  87. 87
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, given the context of effects of temperature, humidity, sunlight and UV, let’s note on points with Mr Trump’s remarks:

    >>A question that probably some of you are thinking of>>

    –> yes, hence the Cedars Sinai initiative and others

    >>if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. >>

    –> he intends to speak from a lateral viewpoint, not from inside the “world”

    >>So, supposedly we hit the body with a tremendous [dose?],>>

    –> Here, we see a colloquial manner of speech, not polished rhetoric, which here serves to connect with hoi polloi, so he feels free to so speak

    >>whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it.>>

    — He seems to have discussed in some fashion prior, likely he has heard of the Cedars Sinai initiative or the like; he is tossing into the public domain an exploration of hope

    — He may also be trolling his opponents, setting them up to “misunderestimate”

    >>And then I said>>

    — Alludes to a past exchange with the expert, so he is drawing out publicly

    >> supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. >>

    — Notice he is extending the observed impact of light including UV into the body not just the air and surfaces, as this is effective in killing the virus

    >>And I think you said you’re going to test that too.>>

    — They had done experiments on how heat, humidity, sunlight, UV kill the virus

    — Further confirmation of a prior discussion

    >>Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute.>>

    — Definite article, and a reference to an antecedent, in context, light and UV, possibly heat [which can be radiation]

    — He is impressed by swift action, one minute to the knock out.

    >> And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning>>

    — Confirms that he wants to get the cluster described inside the body

    >> because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs,>>

    — the target zone for the attack on the virus is the respiratory system, especially the lungs as that is where the virus — obvious antecedent to this IT — primarily attacks

    — we are only now learning of secondary attacks on organs and the blood stream

    >> so it’d be interesting to check that>>

    — a research direction

    >> so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with,>>

    — he understands that this is a context where research and hoped for clinical interventions have to be through medical practitioners, this is no self-medication situation

    >> but it sounds interesting to me.>>

    — he scents opportunity

    >> So, we’ll see,>>

    — he expects action, hopes for a good outcome but this is not certainty

    >> but the whole concept of the light, >>

    — he primarily has light in mind

    >>the way itkills it in one minute.>>

    — It is light that he saw as killing the virus in one minute, based on the remarks presented by the expert and prior discussion

    — grammatically and stylistically messy, but clear enough

    His context is clear, and the focus on [UV]light as primary “disinfectant” is confirmed. he is extending a body of experiment, towards can this be done in the body, under medical supervision.

    the strawman caricature by snipping out of context and substituting another is clear. Indeed, it was always clear, it was only because of insistence on doubling down that this sort of point by point became necessary.

    We have some serious thinking to do about where we are headed as a civilisation.

    KF

  88. 88
    Bob O'H says:

    Jerry @ 86 –

    Can you read? A disinfectant kills microbes. The word “like” was used.

    Yes, I can read. what he said was

    And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me.

    The word “like” was done in the context of doing something like that – doing something like injecting disinfectants. I’m pretty sure most people would interpret that as using disinfectants, not another group of chemicals.

    kf –

    >>Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute.>>

    — Definite article, and a reference to an antecedent, in context, light and UV, possibly heat [which can be radiation]

    Yes, definite article, and reference to an antcedent. Now, let’s search the transcript for all other uses of “disinfect”. Here’s the first three, in their full paragraphs:

    Bill Bryan: (28:34)
    For example, increasing the temperature and humidity of potentially contaminated indoor spaces appears to reduce the stability of the virus, and extra care may be warranted for dry environments that do not have exposure to solar light. We’re also testing disinfectants readily available. We’ve tested bleach, we’ve tested isopropyl alcohol on the virus specifically in saliva or in respiratory fluids and I can tell you that bleach will kill the virus in five minutes. Isopropyl alcohol will kill the virus in 30 seconds and that’s with no manipulation, no rubbing. Just bring it on and leaving it go. You rub it and it goes away even faster. We’re also looking at other disinfectants, specifically looking at the COVID-19 virus in saliva. This is not the end of our work. As we continue to characterize this virus and integrate our findings into practical applications to mitigate exposure and transmission. I would like to thank the president, thank the vice president for their ongoing support and leadership to the department and for their work in addressing this pandemic. I would also like to thank the scientists not only in S and T and the NBAC, but to the larger scientific and R and D community. Thank you very much.

    Donald Trump: (29:46)
    A question that probably some of you are thinking of if you’re totally into that world, which I find to be very interesting. So, supposedly we hit the body with a tremendous, whether it’s ultraviolet or just very powerful light, and I think you said that hasn’t been checked, but you’re going to test it. And then I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you’re going to test that too. Sounds interesting, right? And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning because you see it gets in the lungs and it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it’d be interesting to check that so that you’re going to have to use medical doctors with, but it sounds interesting to me. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute. That’s pretty powerful. Steve, please.

    So the only antecedent use of disinfectants is about the chemicals.

  89. 89
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H, tripling down on the strawman fallacy now. As I annotated, Mr Trump emphatically and repeatedly spoke to light, especially UV light as THE active agent in his mind and in prior conversations with the presenter who had done experiments. What I can see is how right Aristotle was when he warned that our judgements when we are pleased and friendly are not as those we make when we are pained and hostile. KF

    PS: On through the skin, let’s do an exercise. Get a bright flashlight. Go into a darkened room, cover it with your hand and turn it on. Notice how translucent your hands are, almost like an X-Ray. Similarly, put it against your leg, your belly, your chest and see how the glow spreads out. But of course the relevant context is the Cedars-Sinai work.

    PPS: Note also, his emphatic reference to medical practitioners. He definitely did not have amateurish self-poisoning in mind. Nor, did he invite it.

  90. 90
    jerry says:

    The gift that keeps on giving.

    Of course it is possible to inject any disinfectant into the blood stream. Nobody would deny that. Nobody recommended that. Trump did not recommend that.

    Trump didn’t say what is obviously possible. He said something else, speculating. He made an analogy to another common medical practice, the injection of something like a disinfectant, something that kills microbes. What is in the news but an injection that kills microbes. it may rid the body of microbes by killing them. Or to use Laymen’s term it may clean the body of this particular germ.

    Why the attempts to distort? That is the interesting question.

  91. 91
    daveS says:

    I think it’s true that some of the criticism of the “disinfectant” comments were unfair or simply false.

    On the other hand, semi-coherent rambling during a news conference on a medical emergency is probably never a good idea.

  92. 92
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, Mr Trump spoke colloquially, but quite coherently. The major blame here is on those who snipped out of context, set up a strawman and indulged destructive slander. And as news is edited where also AP is received by all major media houses, it is obvious that they had every opportunity to know better. Unfortunately this is all of a piece with what is a clear pattern of agit prop action in what is no longer news and views coverage but ruthless operations in the information battlespace of a 4th gen civil war. KF

  93. 93
    daveS says:

    KF,

    Mr Trump spoke colloquially, but quite coherently.

    I’ll just say it’s not quite up to the standard I expect from a president addressing the nation.

    He actually is quite good at delivering prepared remarks. Mike Pence is also an excellent speaker (and consistently strikes the right tone). With such a solid team behind him, I don’t see why he doesn’t simply cut back on the improvisation a bit.

  94. 94
    JVL says:

    Jerry: I have a question. If someone consistently gets something wrong or irrelevant as you do what is the statistical chance this person is a good source for information or good judgment on anything?

    Which is pretty much how most Europeans view Donald Trump. In fact he scares them a bit since he has nuclear launch codes and a completely US-centric view of economics and politics.

  95. 95
    ET says:

    Does anyone in the USA care what Europeans think? No, we do not.

  96. 96
    Ed George says:

    KF

    EG, now you are trying to set up and knock over a strawman.

    Even Trump does not deny saying that he thought injecting disinfectants might be worth looking in to. He followed up by saying that he was being sarcastic, which no person who saw the original video would honestly conclude that he was being sarcastic.

    BO’H: Snipping out of context, pushing into a different context and thus creating a strawman caricature to knock over.

    That was not out of context. He talked about light and heat (i.e., getting outside in the sun) and injecting disinfectants (i.e., using the technique used to disinfect household surfaces on humans through injection).

    BO’H, tripling down on the strawman fallacy now. As I annotated, Mr Trump emphatically and repeatedly spoke to light, especially UV light as THE active agent in his mind and in prior conversations with the presenter who had done experiments.

    Yes, he mentioned light, and I can accept that it was in reference to the UV treatment being tested in hospital, but how does heat and humidity come into the equation? Even people from other countries are ridiculing him for this exchange with the doctors during his press conference. People who have no card in the US politics game.

    You keep accusing others of selective hyper skepticism but fail to notice the beam in your own eye. Your animosity towards liberals is so great that you look at any possible explanation for Trump’s words other than what they mean, even after Trump himself tries to walk them back by saying he was being sarcastic to see what the media would do..

    What would it have taken to accept this as a bit of impromptu brainstorming,

    As Bob mentioned, everyone admits that this was impromptu brainstorming. Don’t you understand how dangerous public brainstorming by the “leader of the free world” can be? He publicly brainstormed about HCQ and created a shortage in the drug for people who use it for scientifically confirmed treatments. He publicly brainstormed about injecting disinfectants and calls to poison control centres increase. Being a businessman, he should know about the danger about brainstorming in the public. Those discussions are best held behind closed doors where all of the possible consequences of actions can be discussed.

  97. 97
    daveS says:

    ET,

    Does anyone in the USA care what Europeans think? No, we do not.

    Some of us might care a little bit. 😛

  98. 98
    ET says:

    Ed George is one of the most dishonest people ever. Any objective person watching Trump would have known he was being sarcastic. You have to be a complete moron on an agenda to think he was being serious. Enter Eddie.

    HCQ has proven to be effective against covid 19. And no one was shorted their medications because he spoke of HCQ.

    Ed George is just a pathetic little troll

  99. 99
    Ed George says:

    DaveS

    Some of us might care a little bit.

    I would think that only a short-sighted xenophobe, homophobic toaster repairman wouldn’t. 🙂

  100. 100
    JVL says:

    ET: Does anyone in the USA care what Europeans think? No, we do not.

    Good thing you’re not on a trade negotiation team!

    Any objective person watching Trump would have known he was being sarcastic. You have to be a complete moron on an agenda to think he was being serious.

    I don’t remember anyone suggesting that at the time. But I’d be happy to walk that back if contrary evidence was presented.

  101. 101
    JVL says:

    Ed George: Even people from other countries are ridiculing him for this exchange with the doctors during his press conference. People who have no card in the US politics game.

    Are you related to Elizabeth George or Melissa George? Christopher George?

    Anyway, I can confirm that people in other countries are ridiculing the PoTUS.

    Like him or hate him he is a liability on the international scene.

  102. 102
    kairosfocus says:

    EG & JVL: people’s views are largely shaped by . . . the media, preferred pundits and voices. Those are going in lockstep, have been and have been consistently wrong on many things. This is a live case in front of us. We can see the way quite plain ideas and suggestions have been frankly malevolently twisted. This is happening literally just as the formerly credible FBI is being found trying to frame and twist someone to make up a further level of accusations, using his family as hostages; on a matter that for months to years on end was the basis for lockstep, two minute hate accusations almost across the board, that are now unravelling in what begins to look like Watergate on steroids. None of this is doing any good for the social capital our civilisation already desperately needs. I only hope that it is not already too late. KF

  103. 103
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, what WE might prefer is now largely irrelevant. Our technocratic voices, elite school grads, Rhodes scholars and more failed the people of the hinterlands, on both sides of the Atlantic. The deplorables have had enough of us, and of our failed compromises; in the US after a generation of hinterland stagnation. They are rising up in a peasant uprising, so far by ballot box and Youtube etc. Believe you me, they are watching, live, as they see this case and others and they are making some decisions about the snooty coastal elites, boffins, technocrats, polished voices etc. US, I say, US. We have been weighed in the balance and found wanting, for cause. And if we think we will ever get back to our comfortable business as usual, we are sadly mistaken. Especially in the case of the US. We need to think again. KF

  104. 104
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I’ll have you know I’m purebred white trash myself.

    Also I think your assessment of the situation displays a lack of understanding of what life is really like in the US beyond the cardboard stereotypes.

  105. 105
    JVL says:

    KairosFocus: people’s views are largely shaped by . . . the media, preferred pundits and voices. Those are going in lockstep, have been and have been consistently wrong on many things. This is a live case in front of us. We can see the way quite plain ideas and suggestions have been frankly malevolently twisted.

    Gotta disagree with you there KF, big time; at least in Europe. Remember, newspapers in Europe are extremely biased which means you can have access to lots and lots of different views at the same newsstand.

    And, I’ve got to say in England at least, the country has discovered it’s deeply split on many, many issues, Brexit being the one you’re probably most familiar with from recent times. But they are all, liberals and conservatives, unified in their opinion of Donal Trump.

    It’s not a matter of the media dictating beliefs; it a case of a lot of people having access to non-sound bite excerpts from Presidential speeches, press conferences and Tweets and them deciding on their own that The Donald is sadly not up to the job.

    Maybe in the 60s if you were a CBS fan you followed the views of their editorial staff because you thought Walter Cronkite was fair and objective but these days a lot of people are exposed to a lot of differing views and they make up their own minds. Maybe not so much in North Dakota but in London, Paris, Rome, Berlin, Madrid, Copenhagen, The Hague, Lisbon, Geneva, Stockholm, Helsinki, and all over Europe it’s no longer a one-size-fits-all mentality. If you live in England and you don’t like the BBC you don’t have to depend on them for your news. Same with The Times or The Mail or The Independent or The Mirror or The Telegraph or The Sun (those are all national English newspapers available in every city, town, village and hamlet and all having different opinions) or ITV or Skye or Channel 4 (television content providers that are NOT the BBC). I can even get Algezzera (misspelled, I know) and CNN news feeds for free!

    Like I said, maybe in Fargo there is only one real newspaper and a couple of local television news sources but in Europe there are tons and tons and tons of choices.

  106. 106
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, the peasant revolt is visible in the electoral map by county. KF

  107. 107
    daveS says:

    KF,

    I live in one of those “peasant counties” and I can tell you the reality is a bit more complex.

    I gather you get most of your information about us via the internet rather than on-the-ground interaction?

  108. 108
    Ed George says:

    KF, I personally know many Republicans from the US, and I meet many more during my international meetings. Without an exception, they have voiced their opposition to Trump. Maybe this is because they are highly educated and scientifically literate.

  109. 109
    vividbleau says:

    EG
    Why so condescending?
    I would think you would know that the terms Republican and Democrat are two names for political mafia families. I know lots of Republicans too, I left the Republican Party years ago they are for the most part a bunch of frauds
    There are statists and there are people that want limited Government, I suspect the so called Repubs you mention are statists. I betcha they are affluent white people as well.

    Interesting enough there are Dems that are coming to realize the frauds their party perpetrates as well such as this me too activist ,don’t expect to see this get much news coverage

    https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/04/29/rose-mcgowan-the-democrats-and-the-media-are-a-cult/
    Curious Ed should all woman be believed , you know the mantra used against Kavanaugh?

    Vivid

  110. 110
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL,

    Sorry, phone calls etc.

    Are you familiar with the Overton Window concept? While that was developed in the US, and speaks to the usual political spectrum, it is more generally applicable to a multi-dimensional zone within which the bulk of respectable opinion operates in a given community. In turn, that is shaped by what is perceived as knowledge, cultural exemplars, idea leadership, what makes for success etc. As a natural result, there is a dominant worldview or range of live options for worldviews, cultural visions, narratives and agendas. That is the context in which I spoke.

    So yes, there is diversity but it is within a fairly narrow zone relative to major views and thought across time and space. Yes, newspapers etc will come from different points in the local market for ideas, voices, visions and agendas, but other than the extremes, they will cluster in the Overton zone, held there by the opposed walkaway points of strong enough factions and interests. In that setting, there will be a lot more agreement and cohesiveness than one may at first imagine. For example, PM Blair of the UK spoke to how an evangelical Christian would typically be viewed as a nutter. In much of respectable society in Europe, the “expert consensus” on sustainability, climate variability, a Big-S Scientific outlook, some degree of socialistic and even marxist influenced thought etc will be common currency. As a rule non-theism will have much higher prevalence than in other parts of the world. Typically, the USA will be seen and sneered at as half barbarian. For example, in most educated circles in Europe the thought that one has a right to keep and bear arms as a fundamental right seems to be nonsensical and indefensible. And more.

    In the UK, esp. England, Brexit reveals the peasant uprising I have mentioned.Think about why it took what, THREE votes for the political and chattering classes to grudgingly acknowledge that hoi polloi really mean it.

    Perhaps, you don’t remember the general view that Mr Reagan was dumb, dangerous and a threat to peace. And yet, his input was decisive in winning WW3, the Cold War. While there are many things I dislike about Mr Trump, I also recognise that he is not the idiot and traitor the media have portrayed in lockstep. Including, on this latest matter, where the typical acceptable view among many circles would be absolutely predictable.

    We shall see in due course.

    KF

  111. 111
    kairosfocus says:

    DS, I am very aware that the patterns are complex in detail, it is the broad patterns I am pointing out. Coming back, it is fairly obvious that there was an attempted media lynching on this matter, which also is at the same time as telling evidence is coming out on FBI malfeasance on a matter that was a drumbeat for years on end. And much more. Think about the implications of ruining social capital. KF

  112. 112
    kairosfocus says:

    Vivid, it is clear the Republican elites do not like Mr Trump and have more in common with the Democrat elites than with the deplorables. KF

  113. 113
    JVL says:

    KairosFocus: Sorry, phone calls etc.

    Never, ever apologise for having a life!!

    As a natural result, there is a dominant worldview or range of live options for worldviews, cultural visions, narratives and agendas. That is the context in which I spoke.

    Yes, I get that but I don’t think you understand how completely the UK populace has split over Brexit but still agrees on Trump. That means people from views at death stare standing are finding some common ground on the US President. I appreciate your attempts at being supportive but, in all honesty, you don’t live in the UK and you don’t know what is happening on an hour by hour basis.

    So yes, there is diversity but it is within a fairly narrow zone relative to major views and thought across time and space. Yes, newspapers etc will come from different points in the local market for ideas, voices, visions and agendas, but other than the extremes, they will cluster in the Overton zone, held there by the opposed walkaway points of strong enough factions and interests. In that setting, there will be a lot more agreement and cohesiveness than one may at first imagine.

    Comments like that tell me you are only speaking of the UK in a perceived rather than an experienced sense.

    Typically, the USA will be seen and sneered at as half barbarian. For example, in most educated circles in Europe the thought that one has a right to keep and bear arms as a fundamental right seems to be nonsensical and indefensible. And more.

    Europe loved Barack Obama, they thought he was a real statesman. This is NOT a ideological bias against the USA. It’s a studied and considered rejection of Donald Trump as a capable leader.

    In the UK, esp. England, Brexit reveals the peasant uprising I have mentioned.Think about why it took what, THREE votes for the political and chattering classes to grudgingly acknowledge that hoi polloi really mean it.

    You’re misreading things. The country is dead-split on Brexit. But they are unified on Trump. Their view of Trump has nothing to do with your perceived peasant uprising.

    While there are many things I dislike about Mr Trump, I also recognise that he is not the idiot and traitor the media have portrayed in lockstep. Including, on this latest matter, where the typical acceptable view among many circles would be absolutely predictable.

    Again, I will just say that widely divergent political views in the UK have come together regarding Donald Trump and no one is saying he’s a traitor. And I think that is true across Europe. You can choose to apologise for him but he is extremely divisive across the planet with most people outside the US voting two-thumbs down.

    As you say, we shall see in due course but I would recommend to you that you try and evaluate his performance a bit more objectively; i.e. just because he gets some things right by you does not mean he’s right about other things.

  114. 114
    kairosfocus says:

    JVL, we shall see. KF

  115. 115
    ET says:

    I personally know many democrats and to a person they haven’t got a clue on anything. Thankfully we do not have a democrat for PotUS. They think that crazy Joe Biden is the answer and yet he is totally clueless.

  116. 116
    Ed George says:

    VB

    Why so condescending?

    My apologies. I did not intend this, but on rereading I can see how it can come across as such. When I mentioned that the Republicans I know are highly educated and scientifically literate this is just because I come across most of them during the international scientific meetings that I frequently attend. The same can be said for most of the Democrats I know.

    Curious Ed should all woman be believed , you know the mantra used against Kavanaugh?

    No more so than all men should be.

  117. 117
    MatSpirit says:

    Barry: “Those who insist that regional differences make no difference are now in the “willfully obtuse” category.”

    For what it’s worth, I don’t think you’re being willfully obtuse. But I can see where people might get that idea.

    Your “rest of us” category includes all the states that started lock downs and serious social distancing way before the Northeast coast.

    Here’s some fatality rates (and rates per million population) for the bigger states that started social distancing in time:

    California: 1956 (50)
    Washington 801 (110)
    Oregon 103 (25)
    Hawaii 16 (11)
    Minnesota 343 (62) (Bornagain77 is safe)
    Wisconsin 316 (55) (I’m safer)
    Colorado 766 (138) (You’re fairly safe)
    From: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ March 30, 2020

    Yet you, in your non-obtuse way, ignore the actions those states took and chalk the differences in fatalities up to “geography”.

    Tell Mark Hillman that he’s an IDiot.

  118. 118
    Barry Arrington says:

    60% of deaths come from just 5 states.
    MatSpirit: Whoever says geography matters is an idiot.

  119. 119
  120. 120
    MatSpirit says:

    Barry: 60% of deaths come from just 5 states.
    MatSpirit: Whoever says geography matters is an idiot.

    60 % of the deaths come from 5 urban states with busy airports for bringing the virus in and getting it going. California is an even bigger state with huge international airports and they started serious, government mandated social distancing and shelter in place measures months before the East Coast, back when Trump was telling us all that Covid was nothing, that we were going to wake up soon and discover it had disappeared with the changing seasons.

    Today we can look at the deaths and especially deaths per capita and no amount of geographical BSing is going change them. Social isolation is responsible for that vast difference in human deaths, not their geographical location.

    And now, of course, the Stable Genius, the Republican Party and all the Trumpeters are trying their level best to end the lockdown while the virus is still within our society. The only “good” thing about all this is that given normal delays in implementation, we should be back where we were a couple of months ago all over the country just in time for the elections. Except the pandemic will be concentrated in Red states.

    You are all IDiots.

  121. 121
    Bob O'H says:

    Except the pandemic will be concentrated in Red states.

    Is anyone else amused that the colour used to represent the Republican party is also the colour associated with socialism?

  122. 122
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H there was a deliberate reversal of the usual colours. That is contrasted with the UK. KF

  123. 123
    kairosfocus says:

    MS, the big contrast is on density of people-people interactions, eg NY and its subways which were just closed for a cleaning. Geography is much more than mere location. KF

  124. 124
    jerry says:

    The lockdown does not prevent the spread of the disease. It just extends the inevitable while causing massive secondary harm in other areas. Someone quoted a potential virus victim as saying he rather take his chances with the virus than starve to death.

    What is needed is a way to quickly manage the return to normal life with minimal disruption. There is such a plan and what’s preventing its implementation or even consideration is politics. https://bit.ly/3554Tik

    New antibody tests for SARS-CoV-2 are providing better estimates of the mortality rate of COVID-19. Prior to serology testing, the prevalence of novel-coronavirus infection was calculated to be only 0.26% in the US with a mortality rate of 5.60%. Serology tests, however, now show the infection prevalence to be far higher with a calculated mortality rate of about 0.18%. With age-selective quarantining in combination with widespread testing, telemedicine consultations and early treatment with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin and zinc, the mortality rate could be reduced to 0.03%. By instituting these measures, the projected number of deaths moving forward could be fewer than the number of deaths in the flu season of 2017-2018.

    We see that here in miniature as comments seem to reflect underlying attitudes that reflect political leanings as well as for non-political areas.

    One of the more sensible approaches I have seen is Turkey which allows normal commerce for 5 days of the week for those aged 20-65 and social isolation for others. So most of the economy proceeds while testing and. treating take place for everyone. Eventually this will have to end but the intent is as little disruption as possible till herd immunity or a vaccine is available.

  125. 125
    jerry says:

    Geography is much more than mere location

    It is mainly about urban density which reflects economic opportunity which often originally reflects geography such as ports or transportation hubs or trading centers. People with less economic wherewithal will flock there. Hence the expression “Follow the Money” explains most differences.

    This might mean that areas such as New York City will come out of the virus quicker as herd immunity will spread quicker there. But based on my previous comment we are now at a point where the herd immunity goal can be managed for everyone. But politics is getting in the way.

    Is anyone else amused that the colour used to represent the Republican party is also the color associated with socialism?

    This apparently was a happenstance as the TV networks reporting state patterns would switch colors from one election to the other and just happened to be using red for Republicans the year the expression took hold. Another version is that red and blue were traditionally used to distinguish the parties on maps but in 2000 one graphic consultant started using red for Republicans because both begin with “r.” It stuck.

    But I am glad that someone recognizes that Republicans are the antithesis of socialism since their primary intellectual underpinning is individual liberty or freedom.

  126. 126
    daveS says:

    I think the separation of states, counties, and about everything else you can think of into “red” and “blue” has been quite harmful to the US. We now tend to see each other in binary terms, rather than as people with complex interests and values who actually can work together to solve problems. At the very least we should view the statistics in terms of a red-purple-blue spectrum. Furthermore, some of the reddest counties on that map are something like 70% Republican/30% Democrat. There are sizeable numbers of people on the left and right everywhere.

  127. 127
    jerry says:

    Part of a blue state wants to open up. One of the largest hospitals systems in US proposed going back to normal.

    UPMC doctor argues COVID-19 not as deadly as feared, says its hospitals will shift back to normal

  128. 128
    jerry says:

    We now tend to see each other in binary terms, rather than as people with complex interests and values who actually can work together to solve problems.

    One historian expressed what we are seeing possibly as the origins of a new civil war. He said that during the civil war of the 1860’s (wasn’t called a civil war till 20th century – War Between the States or War of Northern Aggression depending on location) a young man from the hills of Tennessee differed from the young man from the hills of Pennsylvania in one thing and that was slavery. So after slavery was eliminated it meant they had almost identical visions and goals. Now we have people living next door to each other with vastly different visions and goals. And sometimes in the same household. It cannot end well.

    Our first civil war is now called the Revolutionary War. Most who disagreed with the break from England migrated out of the colonies. And it was father against son back then as Ben Franklin’s son left because he sided with the English. By the way Franklin was in London as he watched his son march in the procession inaugurating the newest King George.

    Replacing Trump will not eliminate this phenomenon as this division was here long before people thought of Trump as nothing but an obnoxious New York billionaire on a TV show. The divide and acrimony on this site has gone back to when it first started in 2005-2006. If you scratched the politics of both sides, then you would have found the same differences as today.

    The interesting question is what are the underlying attitudes that lead to an affinity of opinions on such a wide range of subjects. For many in our world outside of a blog like this it is just ignorance and an unwillingness to make any waves with the current conventional wisdom. As the religious representative who said I was a victim of a misinformation program and gave me a link to the CDC when I suggested there was an inexpensive cure for the virus. So there was no need to worry about lost of health care and starvation for the poor if this was recognized. He and some of our commenters here are fellow bedfellows.

  129. 129
    daveS says:

    Jerry,

    I’m more optimistic about our future, I guess. I do think we need some sort of mission that will bring us together, such as space exploration. Astronauts often talk about how seeing the Earth from orbit is a life-changing experience; perhaps if we see humans on the Moon again, or even on Mars, that will help bring about a much-needed change in perspective.

  130. 130
    ET says:

    Bob O’H, I am amused that the animal picked to portray the Democrats is an ass. 😛

  131. 131
    Barry Arrington says:

    MatSpritit:

    You are all IDiots.

    KF:

    MS, the big contrast is on density of people-people interactions, eg NY and its subways which were just closed for a cleaning. Geography is much more than mere location.

    It is amusing (and kind of tragic too) that MatSpirit fails to grasp the glaringly obvious point KF makes while calling everyone who disagrees with him idiots. I was tempted to ban MS after that rudeness. But I thought better of it. By all means MS, post away. Toss more softballs for KF to knock out of the park.

    But if you keep calling people idiots, don’t be surprised if my patience runs out and you are shown the exit. Last warning.

  132. 132
    Barry Arrington says:

    Jerry

    By the way Franklin was in London as he watched his son march in the procession inaugurating the newest King George.

    George III was inaugurated in 1760.
    George IV was inaugurated in 1820.
    Ben Franklin died in 1790, after the revolution but before the inauguration of George IV.
    It is true that Ben’s son William was a loyalist who moved to England after the war. But this detail about the inauguration is not accurate.
    Franklin was in England in 1760 (and perhaps so was William). So it is possible they could have both attended the inauguration of George III. But that was 16 years before the war.

  133. 133
    jerry says:

    But this detail about the inauguration is not accurate.

    It was in a history of Franklin in a course by The Great Courses. https://www.thegreatcourses.com/courses/the-age-of-benjamin-franklin.html

    William helped his father with a kite experiment in the early 1750s. He also accompanied him on his diplomatic missions. William did very well. Much more sociable than his father, William thrived in London society. In fact, at the coronation of King George III, William was part of the royal procession. His father had a seat up in the balcony.

    I maintain that Franklin was one of the two or three most interesting people in history. Do you know he was with Voltaire at his death when Voltaire invoked God as the salvation of mankind.

    And Voltaire does place his hands on Temple Franklin’s head, and he says, “God and liberty.”

  134. 134
    Ed George says:

    In Canada the Liberals are red and the Conservatives are blue.

  135. 135
    Barry Arrington says:

    Jerry,
    I speculated that Ben and William might have been at the coronation of George III, and it appears that is the case. But see your comment from above:

    Our first civil war is now called the Revolutionary War. Most who disagreed with the break from England migrated out of the colonies. And it was father against son back then as Ben Franklin’s son left because he sided with the English. By the way Franklin was in London as he watched his son march in the procession inaugurating the newest King George.

    You seemed to be connecting the father against son aspect of the war to the inauguration of George III, which did not make sense given that that event occurred 15 years before the war began.

  136. 136
    jerry says:

    Barry

    If you want an enjoyable listen. get the course on Franklin’s life mentioned. You can get the whole thing as an audible book for a lot less. I would recommend listening in the car but that is very limited these days.

    Did you know Franklin is in the swimming hall of fame and the chess hall of fame. Among a ton of other things.

    Franklin was renowned in Europe because of his science accomplishments and considered by Europeans as one world’s top scientists. He is the responsible for the electron being negative. It was arbitrary but he called its attraction negative. Puts a whole different spin on the attraction of things.

  137. 137
  138. 138
    Barry Arrington says:

    Jerry, thanks for the tip.

  139. 139
    Ed George says:

    KF@137, if I was going to press a point I wouldn’t reference a source (PJ media) that has a long history of pushing falsified conspiracy theories.

  140. 140
    kairosfocus says:

    EG, you prefer the sources of the other falsified conspiracies? The problem here is that there are now no gold standard sources, even among the former top media houses. We just have to test for ourselves. KF

  141. 141
    kairosfocus says:

    Jerry, + and – beats vitreous and resineous. KF

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